| An Iranian general said officials lied about shooting down a Ukrainian passenger jet to defend national security Posted: 15 Jan 2020 04:49 PM PST  Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that Iran's public lies about shooting down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 were justifiable.
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| Canada demands cooperation in Iran crash ahead of international meeting Posted: 15 Jan 2020 04:40 PM PST  Canada vowed Wednesday to get to the bottom of the plane crash that killed dozens of its nationals in Iran, ahead of a meeting in London with other countries that lost citizens. Foreign ministers from Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan and Britain -- which all had nationals who died -- are scheduled to meet on Thursday to press for "full cooperation from Iranian authorities," Canadian Transport Minister Marc Garneau told a press conference. "Canada will not accept a situation where we feel that we're not being given the information that we're looking for," he said.
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| Parnas Says Trump Lied About What He Knew: Impeachment Update Posted: 15 Jan 2020 04:37 PM PST ![Parnas Says Trump Lied About What He Knew: Impeachment Update]( "Parnas Says Trump Lied About What He Knew: Impeachment Update") (Bloomberg) -- The impeachment case against Donald Trump will move to the other side of the Capitol on Wednesday when the House formally notifies the Senate of the charges against the president and the House members who will prosecute the case.Here are the latest developments:Parnas Says Trump Lied About What He Knew (7:34 p.m.)Lev Parnas, the indicted associate of Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, accused Trump of lying when the president said he didn't know what Parnas was doing in Ukraine with Giuliani.In an interview with MSNBC's Rachel Maddow that aired Wednesday, Parnas said, "President Trump knew exactly what was going on.""I wouldn't do anything without the consent of Rudy Giuliani or the president," Parnas said.Trump denied knowing Parnas after he and another Giuliani associate, Igor Fruman, were charged with campaign finance violations in October, although there are photographs of the three men together.Parnas worked with Giuliani to dig up political dirt in Ukraine on Joe Biden and his son Hunter. His lawyer got permission to give documents related to Ukraine to a House committee this week. Some of that material prompted House Foreign Affairs Chairman Eliot Engel to demand information from the State Department regarding possible security risks to U.S. embassy personnel in Kyiv, including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch.Parnas and Robert F. Hyde, a GOP congressional candidate, in March 2019 were "exchanging apparently highly sensitive information regarding the whereabouts of and security protocols" for Yovanovitch when she was ambassador, Engel wrote.The House released additional documents from Parnas on its website Wednesday, including text messages and phone messages.Trump Trial to Begin Tuesday, McConnell Says (5:45 p.m.)Trump's impeachment trial will begin Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the chamber's floor.On Thursday, the House managers will present the impeachment articles to the full Senate at noon, and Chief Justice John Roberts will swear in the senators at 2 p.m., McConnell said.Then the Senate will notify the White House of the pending trial and summon Trump to answer the impeachment articles and send his lawyers, he said."So the trial will commence in earnest on Tuesday," McConnell said.House Sends Documents to Senate for Trial (5:34 p.m.)The House is transmitting to the Senate the documents for a process that will lead to a formal reading of the impeachment charges against Trump on the Senate floor by the seven House prosecutors Thursday morning.The seven House impeachment managers walked in a two-by-two line from the House side of the Capitol to the Senate side to deliver the impeachment documents.Ahead of Wednesday's brief signing ceremony by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, spokesmen for the speaker and for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell bickered over the details of exactly was happening, in a sign of how petty the partisanship surrounding impeachment has become.Pelosi aide Drew Hammill said the impeachment articles were among the documents being conveyed to the Senate after the signing ceremony, while McConnell spokesman David Popp said the House wouldn't "exhibit" the articles until Thursday.Hammill responded in a message, "The House never expected exhibition of the articles today. The articles will be transmitted to the Senate today as planned."Collins Says Rules to Allow Witness Vote (2:27 p.m.)Senate Republicans haven't released their proposed rules for the impeachment trial yet, but GOP Senator Susan Collins said she's satisfied that they will "ensure a roll call vote on the overall issue of whether or not to have witnesses."Collins said that is "exactly" the process that was followed in the 1999 Clinton impeachment trial. Democrats want to call several current and former Trump administration officials as witnesses, an idea opposed by many Republicans.Separately, Senator Roy Blunt said Republicans expect House Democrats to formally present the impeachment articles to the Senate on Thursday morning. Chief Justice John Roberts is likely to come to the chamber that afternoon to swear in senators, he said.The Senate will have a small amount of time to conduct non-impeachment business every day, but members could do more with unanimous consent, Blunt said. He said it's uncertain when Democrat Tim Kaine's war powers resolution to limit Trump's options against Iran might get a vote.Trump to Be Vindicated, White House Says (1:53 p.m.)The White House is prepared for Trump's Senate trial to begin and excited for him to be vindicated, senior administration officials told reporters in a briefing after the House voted to appoint managers for the trial.The officials spoke anonymously as a condition of participation in the briefing.White House Counsel Pat Cipollone is expected to lead Trump's defense with the president's personal attorney Jay Sekulow. The officials would not say whether the team will include firebrand House Republicans who have defended Trump in hearings and on cable television, an idea that appeals to the president. Several Senate Republicans have cautioned Trump against it.The officials said the White House will announce Trump's defense team soon, declining to be more specific. They said the White House doesn't think the Senate needs to call witnesses during the trial and that rules for the proceedings should allow for a motion to dismiss the articles of impeachment.They said it's extraordinarily unlikely that the trial would take more than two weeks because they believe the case against Trump is weak. They also expressed confidence the trial would be over before the Feb. 4 State of the Union address.Trump's campaign manager Brad Parscalesaid in a statement, "This was a sham impeachment from the beginning and never anything more than Democrats trying to interfere in an election that is now less than 10 months away." -- Jordan FabianHouse Votes to Send Articles to Senate (1:35 p.m.)The House officially set Trump's impeachment trial into motion by voting 228-193 to send the articles to the Senate, ending a brief standoff.The vote split almost entirely along party lines, echoing the adoption of the impeachment articles on Dec. 18. Trump is charged with abuse of power and obstructing Congress related to pressuring Ukraine to investigate a political rival.The resolution adopted Wednesday endorses Speaker Nancy Pelosi's choice of seven House managers to prosecute the case against Trump in the Senate.One of them, Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, said in floor debate that Trump "gravely abused the power of his office" in the Ukraine matter and obstructed Congress's inquiry by ordering an "absolute blockade" of evidence."The Senate is on trial. We will see whether they conduct a fair trial and allow the witnesses, or conduct a cover-up," Nadler said.Top Judiciary Committee Republican Doug Collins said Democrats violated House rules in conducting their investigation. He contended the impeachment was based on politics "and their dislike for this president and the good work he is doing."The House vote starts a series of ceremonial procedures that will unfold over the coming days. The House impeachment managers could head over to the Senate chamber as soon as Thursday morning to read the articles of impeachment aloud. -- Billy HouseStay In Your Seats, Senators Are Told (11:49 a.m.)The normally empty Senate chamber will be full for Trump's impeachment trial, with lawmakers instructed to be present for all proceedings and largely cut off from communication with the rest of the world.Senate leaders on Wednesday laid out a series of restrictions, including the "request" that senators "remain in their seats at all times they are on the floor during the impeachment proceedings." Messages from staff and others will have to be sent through party cloakrooms near the Senate floor, and phones or other electronic devices will have to be stored outside the chamber.Senators were told to confine all reading to material related to the trial and instructed that they should "refrain from speaking to neighboring senators while the case is being presented."The guidelines will be particularly cumbersome for four Democratic senators seeking the party's 2020 presidential nomination: Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Michael Bennet of Colorado. The trial could last into February, as the first primary states begin caucusing and casting votes. -- Laura LitvanFuture Presidents at Risk, McConnell Says (11:43 a.m.)Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell continued to make a case for Trump's acquittal on two articles of impeachment at the same moment Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment managers who will prosecute the case.As the Senate opened for business Wednesday, McConnell said that if Trump isn't acquitted, any future president will be at risk of impeachment if the other party "doesn't like them.""We had a 230-year tradition of rejecting purely political impeachments, and it died last month in this House of Representatives," McConnell said. "So Speaker Pelosi and the House have taken our nation down a dangerous road."He rejected the notion that the trial is about allegations that Trump withheld military assistance for Ukraine in exchange for a probe of Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden and his son. McConnell said neither of the House charges violate the U.S. criminal code and said the process was about "naked partisanship."Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democratic leader, came to the floor to defend the House's actions and the "serious charges" against Trump. He said the allegation of an actual crime is not needed to convict, "and I think the majority leader knows that." -- Laura LitvanSchiff to Lead Team of Seven Trial Managers (10:12 a.m.)House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff of California will lead a team of seven managers who will present the impeachment case against Trump in the Senate, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday.Others named by Pelosi are Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler of New York, House Administration Chairwoman Zoe Lofgren of California, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and Representatives Val Demings of Florida, Sylvia Garcia of Texas and Jason Crow of Colorado."These seven members have accepted this serious responsibility," said Pelosi.Schiff said the weeks-long delay in sending the impeachment articles to the House "has given us the ability of showing the American people the necessity of having a fair trial."Nadler noted that some people suggest letting the November election determine whether Trump should stay in office. "He's trying to cheat in that election," Nadler said, adding that the impeachment is an effort to stop the president "from rigging the next election."Trump responded quickly on Twitter: "Here we go again, another Con Job by the Do Nothing Democrats. All of this work was supposed to be done by the House, not the Senate!"Pelosi to Announce House Trial Managers (6 a.m.)House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce Democrats' trial managers at a news conference at 10 a.m. Washington time. Later, the House will vote to send the impeachment articles to the Senate, in a resolution that will also approve Pelosi's choice of managers.After the floor vote, Pelosi and others will participate in a signing ceremony, followed by a ritual in which the House prosecutors will carry the two impeachment articles to the Senate.Chief Justice John Roberts may swear the senators in later this week, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, and the trial is expected to begin next week. -- Billy HouseCatch Up on Impeachment CoverageTrump Impeachment Defense Remains Work in Progress Near TrialKey EventsThe House impeachment resolution is H.Res. 755. The Intelligence Committee Democrats' impeachment report is here.Gordon Sondland's transcript is here and here; Kurt Volker's transcript is here and here. Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch's transcript is here and here; the transcript of Michael McKinley, former senior adviser to the secretary of State, is here. The transcript of David Holmes, a Foreign Service officer at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, is here.The transcript of William Taylor, the top U.S. envoy to Ukraine, is here and here. State Department official George Kent's testimony is here and here. Testimony by Alexander Vindman can be found here, and the Fiona Hill transcript is here. Laura Cooper's transcript is here; Christopher Anderson's is here and Catherine Croft's is here. Jennifer Williams' transcript is here and Timothy Morrison's is here. The Philip Reeker transcript is here. Mark Sandy's is here.\--With assistance from Erik Wasson, Daniel Flatley, Mario Parker, Jordan Fabian and Billy House.To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Strohm in Washington at cstrohm1@bloomberg.net;Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Laurie Asséo, Anna EdgertonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Political Turmoil to Be ‘New Normal’ for 2020, Risk Firm Says Posted: 15 Jan 2020 04:01 PM PST  (Bloomberg) -- The violent protests and political upheaval that marked 2019 and challenged governments from Hong Kong to Chile is set to stay and is now the "new normal," according to a global risk firm.Verisk Maplecroft, which advises corporate clients on political risk around the world, said in a new report released Thursday that it predicts "continued turmoil in 2020" as administrations around the world continue to be surprised by demonstrators and ill-prepared to address the underlying social grievances that spur them."We all need to buckle up for 2020," said Miha Hribernik, the Singapore-based head of Asia risk insight for Verisk Maplecroft. "The rage that caught many governments off-guard last year isn't going anywhere and we'd all better adapt."Many governments were caught by surprise by the scale and ferocity of the protests and ended up attempting to crackdown on the movements, deploying what human rights group have said were arbitrary arrests and indiscriminate violence. That response has ended up further radicalizing protesters and provoking more violent demonstrations, Verisk Maplecroft said in its Political Risk Outlook 2020.Rising UnrestOf the countries seeing significantly more angry protests than usual, some of the steepest increases on firm's unrest index were in Chile and Hong Kong. Chile rose from 91st place to 6th on the index as simmering social strife transformed Latin America's richest and most stable nation into a focal point of chaotic protests that caused some $2 billion of property damages and killed more than two dozen people.Hong Kong similarly rose from 117th to 26th after seven months of pro-democracy street protests, the firm said. Although prompted by a since-withdrawn bill that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China, Verisk Maplecroft added that the "root cause of discontent has been the rollback of civil and political rights since 1997."India and Iraq, which have both seen determined protests recently, ranked much lower on the list of worsening hot spots because they began last year with heightened levels of unrest. In New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi now faces the most significant challenge to his rule since being first being elected in 2014, as protesters take to the streets criticizing his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party for its anti-Muslim policies.Many governments have "reacted with a combination of repression and limited concessions" which achieved little because resilient protest movements have adapted rapidly to police tactics, Hribernik said."During 2019, governments worldwidescrambled to find an effective response to protests," he said. "We don't see much changing during 2020, and January has so far borne this out -- protesters have continued to turn out in their thousands in Iran, Iraq, India, Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon -- to name just a few places."To contact the reporters on this story: Iain Marlow in Hong Kong at imarlow1@bloomberg.net;Hannah Dormido in Hong Kong at hdormido@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Scott at bscott66@bloomberg.net, Muneeza NaqviFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| US military resumes counter-Islamic State operations in Iraq Posted: 15 Jan 2020 03:55 PM PST  The U.S. military is resuming operations against Islamic State militants in Iraq and is working to soon restart training Iraqi forces, U.S. officials said Wednesday, despite deep divisions over the American drone strike that killed an senior Iranian commander in Baghdad and the resulting missile attacks by Iran on Iraqi bases. One official said some joint operations between the U.S. and Iraqi forces have already begun, but there are not yet as many as before.
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| Texas Refugee Ban Hits Wall With Court Blocking Trump Policy Posted: 15 Jan 2020 03:53 PM PST ![Texas Refugee Ban Hits Wall With Court Blocking Trump Policy]( "Texas Refugee Ban Hits Wall With Court Blocking Trump Policy") (Bloomberg) -- A plan by Texas to stop taking in foreign refugees this year was thrown into doubt by a court order that blocks the Trump administration from letting states opt out of refugee resettlement programs.Texas became the first state to officially stop accepting refugees on Jan. 10, when Republican Governor Greg Abbott announced he wouldn't grant written consent for the Lone Star state to participate in resettlement programs, exercising a veto power conferred on states in a policy President Donald Trump announced in September.A federal judge in Maryland on Wednesday temporarily blocked the president's executive order from taking effect. The ruling was in response to a legal challenge from religious organizations and charities that oversee resettlement programs in the U.S. for tens of thousands of people fleeing war, persecution and natural disasters in their countries.The White House called the decision "preposterous," citing it as an example of "nationwide district court injunctions run amok.""Another lawless district court has asserted its own preferred immigration policy in place of the laws of the United States -- and, in so doing, robbed millions of American citizens of their voice and their say in a vital issue directly affecting their communities," the president's press office said in a statement. "President Trump rightly and justly recognized that your communities are unique, and while some cities have the resources to adequately support refugees and help them be successful, not all communities can sustain the substantial and costly burden."Read More: Texas Lawsuit to End DACA on Hold Pending Supreme Court DecisionTexas has taken in roughly 10% of refugees resettled in the U.S. since 2010, according to Abbott. Since 2002, Texas has welcomed an estimated 88,300 refugees, according to the Pew Research Center.Harris County, the heart of Houston's metro area, singlehandedly takes in 40 percent of Texas's annual refugee total, about 3% of all refugees the United Nations resettles across the world, according to U.S. State Department numbers.Abbott didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the judge's order.The governor pegged his decision to the financial and social strain of dealing with both refugees and the flood of undocumented immigrants seeking asylum that have entered Texas in recent years. He said Texas has done more than its share of shouldering the nation's burden in trying to accommodate refugees.Abbott said more than 100,000 migrants were apprehended illegally crossing Texas's border with Mexico in May, although not all of them requested asylum.Read More: Asylum Seekers Who Got Stuck in Mexico Beat Trump's Catch-22"At this time, the state and non-profit organizations have a responsibility to dedicate available resources to those who are already here, including refugees, migrants, and the homeless," Abbott wrote. "This decision does not deny any refugee access to the United States. Nor does it preclude a refugee from later coming to Texas after initially settling in another state."HIAS and other refugee resettlement groups have blasted Abbott for conflating refugees, who go through an extensive vetting program, with asylum seekers, who arrive at the border seeking protection on their own."This administration was wrong to attempt a state-by-state refugee ban," HIAS Chief Executive Officer Mark Hetfield said in a statement jointly issued with the Church World Service and the Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service.Trump's Sept. 26 order said refugees would be placed only "in those jurisdictions in which both the state and local governments" have agreed to take them. More than 40 states have already given permission to continue accepting refugees, including several states with Republican governors.U.S. District Judge Peter Messitte blocked the measure on technical legal grounds. Messitte said the groups challenging it are likely to prevail in their suit, filed in November.Messitte, a 1993 nominee of President Bill Clinton, said current law speaks of consultation between state and local governments and resettlement agencies and that those entities must meet regularly to plan and coordinate. Under Trump's initiative, states and local governments can simply refuse to consent and "there will be no consultations" or "meetings with the resettlement agencies," Messitte wrote, and state and local government can withhold consent for any reason or no reason at all."Game over," he wrote.The Trump administration has limited the number of refugees the U.S. will accept in 2020 to about 18,000, down sharply from the 30,000 refugees resettled in the U.S. in the most recent fiscal year.The case is HIAS Inc. v. Trump, 19-cv-3346, U.S. District Court, District of Maryland (Greenbelt).(Updates with White House statement in fourth paragraph)To contact the reporters on this story: Laurel Calkins in Houstom at lcalkins@bloomberg.net;Andrew Harris in Washington at aharris16@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Glovin at dglovin@bloomberg.net, Peter BlumbergFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Merkel to seek end to Huawei dispute in her conservative camp: sources Posted: 15 Jan 2020 03:44 PM PST  Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet senior conservative lawmakers on Thursday to resolve a dispute in her own party over whether to bar China's Huawei [HWT.UL] from the country's 5G network rollout, party sources said. Merkel's conservatives are divided on whether to support a proposal by their Social Democrat junior coalition partners that, if approved, would effectively shut out the Chinese technology giant from the network. Handelsblatt business daily was first to report on Wednesday the planned meeting between Merkel and senior conservative lawmakers.
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| Three Fiscal Takeaways from the Democratic Presidential Debate Posted: 15 Jan 2020 03:22 PM PST  The Iowa caucuses are less than three weeks away and the top four Democratic presidential contenders are tightly bunched in state polling, so the stakes were high at Tuesday night's primary debate, the candidates' last chance to make a major splash before Iowans gather on February 3.Yet the debate turned out to be a listless affair, largely devoid of fireworks — and of answers or moments that might change the wide-open dynamics of the race. Still, there were some substantive differences highlighted in the exchanges as the candidates tackled issues ranging from foreign policy, especially regarding Iran and the Middle East, to climate change, trade and electability. (You can read the transcript at the Des Moines Register.)Here are three fiscal takeaways:They're still fighting about health care. "Medicare-for-all has come up so much in these debates that bringing it up often elicits groans from people who cover these things. Little of it seems new anymore," The Washington Post's Aaron Blake writes. Sen. Bernie Sanders, asked about the price tag for his Medicare-for-All plan, argued that it would cost less than the status quo — though, as the Associated Press noted in a fact check, there's no guarantee that's true.Moderates including former vice president Joe Biden pushed back, again insisting that their plans to build on Obamacare by adding a public option are a better way to expand health coverage and lower costs. And Sen. Amy Klobuchar again suggested that the debate over Medicare for All isn't real given that the single-payer plan has no clear path to passing Congress. "Klobuchar then went a step further," the Post's Blake notes, "pointing to concrete things she's done and would do, including on drug importation and a bipartisan bill on lowering drug prices. And she pointed to 137 things she's said she can do in the first 100 days as president without Congress."Sen. Elizabeth Warren similarly emphasized that she would seek "to get as much as help to as many people as quickly as possible," including by using executive power to lower prescription drug prices. She also talked up her plan to encourage competition in the pharmaceutical industry by letting the federal government make its own generic drugs. And she turned the health care issue against President Trump: "[W]e Democrats may argue among each other about the best way to do health care, but we're going to be up against a Republican incumbent who has cut health care for millions of people and is still trying to do that. I'll take our side of the argument any day."Democrats differ on government benefits for the rich. "A round of debate questions about free and lower-cost child care and schooling was actually about one of the bigger philosophical splits in the Democratic field: Is the social safety net only for poorer people, or is it for everyone?" Matt Pearce says at the Los Angeles Times.Politico's Ryan Lizza sums up the differences between the candidates when it comes to means-testing benefits (requiring those with higher incomes to pay more): "Sanders is the most consistent, arguing for the largest welfare state across all those categories with the least amount of means testing. His argument is that for government programs to enjoy wide popularity they need to be available to all Americans regardless of income. Buttigieg and Klobuchar, who, for instance, frequently attack free college plans as subsidizing tuition for millionaires, are on the other side of the spectrum."A few candidates talked about deficits and debt. "Color me flabbergasted that not one but two of the six candidates on stage tonight, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D–Minn.) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg said—out loud, even—that they intend to reduce the deficit," Reason Editor at Large Matt Welch writes.The comments about deficits and debt came after CNN moderator Abby Phillip asked Sanders how he would keep his spending proposals "from bankrupting the country." Sanders insisted that his plan would not bankrupt the country and would instead improve the lives of working-class families and the middle class.Klobuchar responded by again calling for building on the Affordable Care Act. "If you want to be practical and progressive at the same time and have a plan and not a pipedream, you have to show how you're going to pay for it," she said. She then brought up her plan to cut the deficit.Buttigieg suggested that Democrats should own the issue of fiscal responsibility: "Look, our party should no longer hesitate to talk about the issue of the debt and the deficit. Now, we've got a dramatically better track record on it than Republicans do. In my lifetime, it's almost invariably Republican presidents who have added to the deficit, a trillion dollars under this president."Warren also mentioned the debt, though somewhat offhandedly, in making a case for her wealth tax: "We need to be willing to put a wealth tax in place, to ask those giant corporations that are not paying to pay, because that's how we build an economy and, for those who want to talk about it, bring down the national debt."That discussion, overall, didn't go far enough for some budget hawks. "Several candidates did mention the debt and deficits and paying for policy proposals," the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget tweeted. "This is encouraging, but we need a detailed discussion about rising national debt in this campaign and how the candidates will budget."Like what you're reading? Sign up for our free newsletter.
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| U.S. threatened auto tariffs if allies didn't accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal Posted: 15 Jan 2020 03:00 PM PST  The Trump administration has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on European automobile imports if Britain, France and Germany do not formally accuse Iran of breaking the 2015 nuclear deal, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed European officials. The three European countries triggered a dispute mechanism under the agreement on Tuesday, amounting to a formal accusation against Tehran of violating its terms and could lead to the reinstatement of United Nations sanctions lifted under the accord.
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| Trade Deal Signed, Fed Lifting Assets, Putin 2024 Play: Eco Day Posted: 15 Jan 2020 02:50 PM PST ![Trade Deal Signed, Fed Lifting Assets, Putin 2024 Play: Eco Day]( "Trade Deal Signed, Fed Lifting Assets, Putin 2024 Play: Eco Day") (Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Thursday, Asia. Here's the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:The U.S. and China signed the first phase of a broader trade pact amid persistent questions over whether President Donald Trump's efforts to rewrite the economic relationship with Beijing will ever go further. Here are five key points from the dealThe Fed's low interest rates, the perception that there is a high bar to future rate increases and expansion of its balance sheet are helping to lift asset prices, Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan saidPresident Vladimir Putin replaced his long-serving prime minister and called for sweeping constitutional changes, fueling speculation that the Russian leader is moving to extend his grip on power beyond the end of his term in 2024. Leonid Bershidsky sifts through the events and Scott Johnson runs the economicsTrump appeared to regret passing over former Fed governor Kevin Warsh in favor of appointing Jerome Powell as chairman, while repeating his lament about the dollar's strength and praising the use of negative interest rates in EuropeThe U.S. economy was growing at a modest clip as 2019 drew to a close, while a deterioration in manufacturing employment belied overall tight job market conditions, a Fed survey showedThe path to a BOE interest-rate cut as soon as Jan. 30 became clearer after inflation unexpectedly slowed to a three-year lowThe Trump administration plans to promote Brazil's bid to join the OECD, reversing a previous commitment to give priority to Argentina's candidacyBrazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is set to visit India next week, aiming to boost trade as ties with neighboring Argentina deteriorateGermany's economy made a slight recovery in the fourth quarter, ending a year in which manufacturing took a battering and the country was dragged to the brink of a recessionThe Swiss National Bank retains the ability to wage currency market interventions if necessary, according to one of its officialsHalf a year into his job leading the Turkish central bank, Murat Uysal might finally reveal where his priorities lie. Meantime, Turkey's top Islamic authority is challenging 1,400 years of religious thinking, with a new ruling on high interest loansThe planet is warming faster than at any time in the history of civilization. Five independent assessments each concluded that last year was the second hottest in 140 years of data. Meantime, a export critical route for American coal to Asia is drying up after yet another U.S. city passed a law to bar coal from leaving its shoresTo contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Jackson at pjackson53@bloomberg.net, Alexandra VeroudeFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Despite trade signing, disputes abound between US, China Posted: 15 Jan 2020 02:45 PM PST  The United States and China on Wednesday signed a long-awaited, if partial, deal to ease trade frictions but other disputes abound between the Pacific powers. President Donald Trump thanked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for the "incredible breakthrough" on trade and promised to visit China soon. The Trump administration rarely presses on human rights with allies, but on China it has been outspoken over the detention of more than one million Uighurs and other Turkic Muslims in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.
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| Taal Volcano Is a Test of Philippines’ Disaster Plan Posted: 15 Jan 2020 02:00 PM PST ![Taal Volcano Is a Test of Philippines' Disaster Plan]( "Taal Volcano Is a Test of Philippines' Disaster Plan") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Smoke and ash erupted Sunday from the Taal volcano in the Philippines, with the plume rising almost 9 miles into the atmosphere and threatening hundreds of thousands of people. The Philippine government mobilized quickly. By Wednesday, more than 38,000 people were staying in evacuation centers, and many thousands more had dispersed to family throughout the country. Meanwhile, the government began to distribute supplies, including 100,000 protective face masks, in and around the eruption zone. There's little time to waste: Volcanologists are warning that a hazardous eruption could come at any time.Thanks to their planning, leaders in the Philippines hope that that eruption, if and when it comes, won't be nearly as catastrophic as it would have been 10 years ago. Back then, the Philippines, like most emerging-market countries, mostly responded to disasters by cleaning up afterward. Today, preparedness is a national priority, and the Philippines is a model for how emerging-market governments in the world's most disaster-prone region can be ready for the worst.Since 1970, 59% of the global death toll from disasters — about 2 million people — occurred in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a United Nations report. Economic losses have also been profound, totaling about $675 billion annually. The region's disaster outlook is growing worse because of urbanization in vulnerable areas, degradation of the environment and the influence of a warming climate on extreme weather. In 2018, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for almost half of the world's 281 natural disasters, and eight of the 10 deadliest. Already in 2020, at least 60 people died as a result of flooding in Jakarta, and tens of thousands remain in temporary shelters.Thanks to its location, the Philippines is more vulnerable to disaster than its neighbors. On average, eight or nine tropical cyclones make landfall on its coasts annually, bringing storm surges, flooding and landslides — phenomena that are likely to become more frequent and intensify as the climate warms. The country is perched atop the "Ring of Fire" — a geologically active path along the Pacific Ocean — and is home to 53 active volcanos and fault lines capable of major earthquakes near the country's biggest cities. Further raising the risk profile is the country's drive to urbanize: Half the population currently lives in cities, with roughly a quarter of its residents (25 million people) in the Manila metro area.Officials in the Philippines historically didn't view disasters as recurrent problems worth mitigating or preventing. Rather, their focus was almost entirely concentrated on rapid response after the disaster. That's neither new nor uncommon in emerging Asian countries. In Jakarta, for example, the Indonesian government has struggled to manage regular, catastrophic floods, much less fund systems to control them. The situation has grown so bad that victims of this month's floods are filing a class-action lawsuit against the government for failing to plan for them.What changed the disaster calculus in the Philippines was the scale of the catastrophes. In 2009, metro Manilla was hit by Typhoon Ketsana, which dumped more than a month's worth of rain in 12 hours, killed more than 700 people and paralyzed the city's economy. The government's tepid response precipitated a political crisis and the passage of legislation that prioritized proactive disaster management and risk reduction. Among other reforms, local governments are now required to prepare maps of areas prone to disasters like landslides, and make them public for planning and zoning purposes.To finance the shift, the country's main disaster fund is mandated to spend 70% on prevention, preparedness and mitigation, with 30% allocated to quick response operations. Among other benefits, the funding enables local governments to invest in hazard monitoring and forecasting equipment, including tsunami detection stations and volcano observatories (including those watching the Taal volcano). This spending is mostly administered by local governments, but since 2010 their disaster responses are monitored, integrated and supervised by a high-level agency. This framework not only provides accountability, but also ensures that planning and response to large-scale disasters can be coordinated nationally. Civil society and religious organizations also play a grass-roots role in disaster planning and response.Of course, no system is perfect. In the Philippines, it's fair to question whether a disaster preparedness system that depends on forging consensus within and among communities can be effective in the event of a major crisis. Likewise, there are legitimate concerns that the government will not fund the system's needs adequately. So far, at least, investments in detection and preparation have clearly left the Philippines in a better place to manage the disastrous impacts of an eruption at the Taal volcano than it was a decade ago. That's a lesson that Indonesia and other disaster-prone Asian countries can afford to emulate.To contact the author of this story: Adam Minter at aminter@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Stacey Shick at sshick@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Adam Minter is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the author of "Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion-Dollar Trash Trade" and the forthcoming "Secondhand: Travels in the New Global Garage Sale."For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iran's president urges 'unity' after plane protests Posted: 15 Jan 2020 01:48 PM PST  President Hassan Rouhani appealed Wednesday for "unity" and flagged the need for radical changes to the way Iran is run, after a wave of angry protests over the accidental downing of a Ukrainian airliner. The Kiev-bound Boeing 737 was shot down in a catastrophic error shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people aboard. One week on from the disaster, Rouhani called for "national unity" in remarks broadcast live on state television.
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| John Bolton will reportedly reveal some of what he knows about Trump's Ukraine scandal in his upcoming book Posted: 15 Jan 2020 01:31 PM PST  If you really want to know what former National Security Adviser John Bolton though of President Trump's actions regarding Ukraine, you may not have to rely on the Senate to call him as a witness in the president's upcoming impeachment trial. That's because Bolton is going to reveal some of what he saw in his upcoming book, people familiar with the matter told The New York Times. The book, which is almost finished, is reportedly going to detail Bolton's time in the White House, events related to Russia and Venezuela, and his interactions with other administration officials, some of whom reportedly don't come across very well, including former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney. The Ukraine scandal, which is at the center of Trump's impeachment, will fill at least some pages, too, and Bolton is expected to share some of his observations about Trump's efforts to pressure Ukrainian officials into announcing an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden's son, Hunter.Bolton has said he's prepared to testify should the Senate issue a subpoena, but it's unclear if the upper chamber will do so. Read more at The New York Times.More stories from theweek.com ACLU challenges Trump rule forcing asylum seekers to Guatemala regardless of where they're from The paradox of Trump's trillion-dollar deficit Trump flubbed 3rd grade geography to the Indian prime minister
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| Democrats differ on US-Mideast wars, with no clear exit plan Posted: 15 Jan 2020 01:30 PM PST  The Democratic presidential field is united in lambasting President Donald Trump's handling of America's military presence in the Middle East, but the candidates are sharply divided on how to do it better. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont took the more aggressive stances on reducing the U.S. military role in the Mideast. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota called for a continued though curtailed presence.
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| U.S. and China Sign Phase One of Trade Deal Posted: 15 Jan 2020 01:15 PM PST  (Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. The U.S. and China signed what they billed as the first phase of a broader trade pact on Wednesday amid persistent questions over whether President Donald Trump's efforts to rewrite the economic relationship with Beijing will ever go any further.The deal commits China to do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities, while outlining a $200 billion spending spree to try to close its trade imbalance with the U.S. It also binds Beijing to avoiding currency manipulation to gain an advantage and includes an enforcement system to ensure promises are kept.Read the full text of the agreement here.The ceremony in a packed East Room at the White House included Trump, dozens of American business people and U.S. lawmakers and Chinese officials and marked a rare moment of friendship lately between the world's two largest economies. Acrimonious talks stretching back almost three years have roiled financial markets, cast a cloud of uncertainty over investment decisions and hurt growth in both nations."This is a very important and remarkable occasion," Trump said. Fixing what he sees as the injustices of past trade deals is "probably the biggest reason why I ran for president," he added. "Together we are righting the wrongs of the past."In a letter to Trump read out at the ceremony, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said the deal proved the two sides could work together to bridge their differences and declared it "good for China, the U.S. and the whole world."The benchmark S&P 500 set an intraday record for the sixth consecutive trading session, finishing short of an earlier all-time intraday high.Economic DialoguesThe deal, sealed on the same day the House voted to refer articles of Trump's impeachment to the Senate, seems most focused on arriving at peace in the trade war between the world's two largest economies. Among its requirements is a resumption of the economic dialogues that past administrations have held with China.But the new pact has already been criticized for what is missing. It does nothing to address areas like what U.S. authorities have long claimed is China's state-backed hacking of American companies and government institutions. Nor does it require the Asian power to reform the vast web of state subsidies that form the spine of its model of state capitalism and have helped fuel the rapid growth of Chinese companies internationally.The administration says many of those issues will be covered in a second phase of a deal, though when those talks will begin and how long they will take remains uncertain. In the meantime, the U.S. is also set to maintain tariffs on roughly two-thirds of imports from China, something that Trump on Wednesday said was essential as leverage over the country until it agreed to further reforms."As soon as this kicks in we're starting phase two," Trump said. "I will agree to take those tariffs off if we're able to do phase two, otherwise we don't have any cards to negotiate with."Trump's top negotiator, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, told reporters ahead of the signing that the administration was focused on implementing the initial agreement in the short term. Any further negotiations would only come after that, he said, adding that the initial implementation of phase one could take until the spring.Business groups broadly welcomed the agreement. But the lack of clarity on where things would go next also led many to call for those to be pursued more urgently so that tariffs could be lifted. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it was critical for the two sides to begin negotiations on a second phase "as soon as possible"."The work isn't done yet," said Craig Allen, head of the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents American companies doing business in the Asian nation. "The phase-one agreement should be swiftly followed by continued phase-two negotiations on remaining issues."Democrats in Congress, meanwhile, blasted the agreement, saying Trump -- in agreeing to the limited pact -- gave away vital leverage he might have used to resolve tougher issues in the trade relationship, including China's "massive subsidies" to some key industries. "The administration, in order to get a deal at all costs before the 2020 election, has thrown the American worker and American business overboard," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said.Chinese state media greeted the deal with cautious optimism but also fear it could fall apart. "It is such a paradox that makes many people worry: Can a preliminary trade agreement, reached during a period when China-U.S. strategic relations are clearly declining, really work," the English-language Global Times said in an editorial.Trump called the deal more focused than a broader one that was on the table in May when talks broke down, triggering a summer of escalation that prompted wild swings in financial markets. He argued the deal was tougher as well. But missing from the agreement are many of the requirements for Chinese legal changes that U.S. negotiators accused Beijing of abandoning then, prompting the May breakdown.The deal states China must apply criminal penalties on anyone caught stealing commercial secrets and do more to stop the sale of pirated goods online, as well as fake pharmaceutical products. It also requires Beijing to deliver an action plan within 30 days of the deal taking effect on how it intends to meet its commitments on intellectual property.Separately, it includes a broad commitment for China to stop pressuring American companies investing in the country to share technology with local joint-venture partners and for the government to stop supporting or directing Chinese firms to buy up strategic technologies by acquiring foreign companies. Both have been chief complaints of the U.S., which has curbed inbound investments from China, particularly in the tech sector.One stated aim of the U.S. crackdown on China and companies like Huawei Technologies Co. has been to curtail their efforts to control strategic sectors like fifth-generation mobile networks and, as part of Xi's "Made in China 2025" program, to dominate 21st century industries like artificial intelligence and robotics.In his letter to Trump, read out by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the ceremony, Xi cited the "spirit" of the deal and urged Trump to allow investment by Chinese firms and said he hoped that "the U.S. side will treat fairly Chinese companies". He also urged the U.S. to allow continuing collaboration by universities and other institutions "to promote the mutual trust and cooperation between the two countries." Both Chinese investment and research exchanges as well as the thousands of Chinese students in the U.S. have been a target for national security hawks in Washington who argue they are part of a broader technology cold war playing out.Officials insist that they are harvesting significant commitments from Beijing that mean the first phase of the agreement will benefit U.S. businesses and workers even if discussions never go any further.Already PromisedMany of the IP commitments in the deal, however, appear to be ones that China had either made already or was moving to address. Over the past year, it has made a rapid-fire series of legal changes to beef up protection. A new foreign-investment law that took effect on Jan. 1 bans administrative agencies from forcing companies to transfer technological knowhow as a cost of entry to the Chinese market. It exposes officials who disclose or leak trade secrets gleaned from regulatory approvals to potential criminal penalties.The Trump administration says what separates its deal most from others is the enforcement mechanism it establishes. Rather than rely on a slow-moving World Trade Organization dispute system that Trump in any case has already hobbled by blocking the appointment of top judges, the new agreement with China would allow the administration to move to punish Beijing with tariffs or other measures within 90 days if officials decided it was breaking its promises.But even Lighthizer acknowledged Wednesday that the effectiveness of the mechanism will depend on Beijing. "This deal will work if China wants it to work," he told reporters. And Senator Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, likened the mechanism and its requirement for consultations to a weak "telephone tree."The deal is also unique in the breadth of specific Chinese purchase commitments it contains, which some critics in the U.S. see as uncomfortably reminiscent of the sort of state-directed central planning American diplomats have spent decades trying to get China to abandon. Even those purchase promises, the details of which are contained in a secret annex to the agreement signed on Tuesday, face questions.The text of the pact released Wednesday specifies $77.7 billion in additional Chinese purchases of manufactured goods including aircraft, $32 billion in new purchases of agricultural products, $52.4 billion in energy and $37.9 billion in services in the two years through December 2021.But it also left significant questions over whether U.S. farm exports to China to reach the $40 billion to $50 billion annual level that Trump has promised, which would mean doubling the $24 billion in agriculture and related products it imported from the U.S. in 2017, before the trade war began. "Signing the deal is the easy part," Ken Morrison, a St. Louis-based independent trader, said by phone. "I have yet to hear a sound argument on how China will execute this deal."(Updates with markets in sixth paragraph.)\--With assistance from Miao Han, Jenny Leonard, Stephen Stapczynski, Ye Xie, Justin Sink, Jordan Fabian, Laura Litvan, Michael Hirtzer and Sarah McGregor.To contact the reporters on this story: Shawn Donnan in Washington at sdonnan@bloomberg.net;Josh Wingrove in Washington at jwingrove4@bloomberg.net;Saleha Mohsin in Washington at smohsin2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Murray at brmurray@bloomberg.net, ;Margaret Collins at mcollins45@bloomberg.net, Ana MonteiroFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Canada seeking official status in Iran plane downing probe Posted: 15 Jan 2020 01:15 PM PST  Canada's transport minister said Wednesday his country is demanding official status in Iran's investigation of the crash of a Ukraine International Airlines jet in Tehran last week. Iran admits its air-defense forces shot the plane down, having not identified it as a commercial airliner. All 176 people aboard were killed, including 138 people who were headed for Canada and 57 Canadians.
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| Iran crown prince predicts regime will collapse within months Posted: 15 Jan 2020 01:07 PM PST  The heir of Iran's deposed monarchy predicted Wednesday that the clerical regime will collapse within months and urged Western powers not to negotiate with it. Reza Pahlavi said that major protests which erupted in November and again this month, after the accidental downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet, reminded him of the uprising that ousted his father in early 1979. The 59-year-old heir to the Peacock Throne, who has not been to Iran since he was a teenager, cited as evidence what he called an easing of fear among protesters and the growing distancing of self-described reformists from the Islamic regime.
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| European Commission backs Poland in war of words with Russia over the causes of WWII Posted: 15 Jan 2020 12:44 PM PST  The European Commission accused Vladimir Putin of "distorting of historical facts" as it backed Poland in a heated war of words with Russia over the causes of the Second World War. Warsaw was left incensed at the end of December when Vladimir Putin appeared to suggest that Poland bore some responsibility for the start of the Second World War Most Poles regarded the comments as a blatant attempt by the Russian leader to absolve his country of any guilt surrounding the start of the war despite the Soviet Union colluding with Hitler to wipe Poland from the map of Europe in 1939. "The European Commission fully rejects any false claims and attempts to distort the history of the Second World War, or paint the victims, like Poland, as perpetrators," said Ms Jourova in an address to the European Parliament ahead of a debate on the distortion of European history. "The commission will not tolerate these attacks on Poland and stands in full solidarity with Poland and the Polish people." She added that "the distortion of historical fact is a threat to our democratic societies and must be challenged whenever possible." Her words of support will be welcomed in Poland at a time when many Poles feel that Russia is increasing its attempts to portray their country as an instigator of the war while whitewashing Stalin's alliance with Hitler, and the deaths of thousands upon thousands of Poles at the hands of the Soviet Union in the early years of the war. Earlier this month Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish prime minister, launched a furious attack on Mr Putin, accusing him of "lying repeatedly" about Poland and using words that "resembled propaganda from the times of Stalinist totalitarianism". The European Commission's stance is a rare example of support for Poland from Brussels. Relations between the two have been fraught since Law and Justice, Poland's governing party, came into office over four years ago. The two have clashed repeatedly over issues such as rule of law, democratic values and the environment.
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| Man who challenged deportation to Iraq wins, can stay in US Posted: 15 Jan 2020 12:25 PM PST ![Man who challenged deportation to Iraq wins, can stay in US]( "Man who challenged deportation to Iraq wins, can stay in US") A Detroit-area man who was locked up for months and became the lead plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit challenging U.S. deportations to Iraq has won his immigration case and is on a path to citizenship, lawyers said Wednesday. An immigration judge found that Usama "Sam" Hamama of Oakland County had rehabilitated himself since an assault conviction decades ago, a crime that was erased with a pardon by Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder in one of his last acts in 2018. The deportation case was dismissed Tuesday by Judge David Paruch, attorney William Swor said.
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| China hopes UN meeting spurs India-Pakistan talks on Kashmir Posted: 15 Jan 2020 12:01 PM PST ![China hopes UN meeting spurs India-Pakistan talks on Kashmir]( "China hopes UN meeting spurs India-Pakistan talks on Kashmir") China's U.N. ambassador warned Wednesday against further escalation between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region and expressed hope that a Security Council meeting called by Beijing will encourage both countries to seek a solution through dialogue. Zhang Jun told several reporters after the closed meeting that China remains "concerned about the situation on the ground" in Kashmir. India's Hindu nationalist-led government ended Muslim-majority Kashmir's semi-autonomous status in August.
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| Like Obama, Trump Seeks Change in Iran, but in Own Way Posted: 15 Jan 2020 11:52 AM PST  WASHINGTON -- Speaking at Stanford University on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had an improbable request for Iran's revolutionary Islamist government."We just want Iran to behave like a normal nation," he said. "Just be like Norway," he added wryly, drawing laughs from the crowd.But as Pompeo and other Trump administration officials know full well, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the generals who guard his power in Tehran will never shape their foreign policy to the United States' liking. What Pompeo implied was less a change in Iran's behavior than a change in its leadership.President Donald Trump and his senior officials insist they do not seek "regime change" in a military sense. But they clearly would not mind seeing their campaign of "maximum pressure" against Iran, now reinforced by the killing of its most valued military leader, result in a drastic upheaval -- and possibly even fall -- of Iran's theocratic government."We support the Iranian people and their courageous struggle for freedom," Trump said at a rally Tuesday night in Milwaukee, referring to recent antigovernment protests in the country.His approach is a contrast to the one pursued for years by the United States during the Obama administration, which, along with Europe, tested the possibility that Iran could be coaxed, not pressured, into a new era.While it was not a stated goal of the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran, many Obama administration officials believed it could lead to an opening of the country's economy and provide a lift to moderate reformers who might gradually steer Iran onto a more benign path -- and perhaps, one day, to an altogether different kind of governmentIn a Nowruz message to Iranians in March 2015, President Barack Obama urged them to adopt the nuclear deal and choose "a better path -- the path of greater opportunities for the Iranian people." That included "more trade and ties with the world," he continued, along with "foreign investment and jobs," "cultural exchanges," foreign travel and "a brighter future for you -- the Iranian people, who, as heirs to a great civilization, have so much to give to the world."When Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, in other words, he didn't just shred an international agreement. He also turned his back on a big idea about how a rogue nation might be drawn into peaceful coexistence with the West.Conservatives called Obama's vision doomed from the start, and have argued that the relief from economic sanctions Iran won in exchange for limits on its nuclear program only funded more Iranian aggression in the Middle East and beyond.Nor did Iranian politics show much sign of moderating, despite conciliatory talk from Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani and its U.S.-educated foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. Now the Trump administration is testing an alternate approach, having abandoned the nuclear deal and adopted its "maximum pressure" posture.Administration officials are especially bullish about that strategy in recent days, as Iran's government contends with renewed protests and absorbs the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani. And in an ominous turn for Tehran this week, Britain, France and Germany formally accused Iran of violating the 2015 nuclear deal, after months of effectively looking the other way at increased Iranian nuclear activity."In neither case was the ultimate, explicit goal 'regime change,' " said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former State Department official in the George W. Bush administration."But there was a kind of theory of the case under Obama that engagement could lead to the sort of fundamental changes in Iranian policy, almost irrespective of the character of the regime, that the U.S. had been seeking since 1979," she said.No one expected overnight change, but many Obama officials believed that Secretary of State John Kerry's copious diplomacy with Zarif, fueled by economic integration, might be the beginning of a deeper relationship that could defuse Ayatollah Khamenei's declarations that Iran could never trust America.The administration's current approach "contrasts in an almost perfectly polarized fashion" with Obama's, Maloney said. That strategy, which began with Trump's May 2018 abandonment of the nuclear deal and was followed by punishing sanctions on Iran's financial system and oil exports, "rests on the idea that Iran only responds to really tough pressure."Maloney and other analysts say that, like Obama's effort at outreach, Trump's strangulation approach may also be stymied by an Iranian government that has resisted 40 years of alternating U.S. efforts to reshape or replace it.Iran grappled with popular protests months before Trump exited the nuclear deal and began turning the screws against its economy. And its interventions in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen continue largely unabated.But in recent days, a chorus of Trump administration officials has boasted that the strike against Soleimani and subsequent military threats are "re-establishing deterrence" against Iranian aggression, even if some privately admit that Trump's own reluctance to use military force was part of the problem.And they seem increasingly triumphal about the signs of stress on Iran's government, now facing the third round of mass demonstrations in the country since late 2017 -- this time prompted by its military's downing of a civilian airliner over Tehran. Recently, Trump has issued several tweets in support of the protesters, including a few in Persian."We think the regime is in real trouble," Robert C. O'Brien, the president's national security adviser, told NBC News on Sunday. Trump's special envoy for Iran, Brian H. Hook, recently boasted that Tehran's clerical government faces "its worst political unrest in its 40-year history."Trump's former national security adviser, John R. Bolton, chimed in Sunday, tweeting: "The Khamenei regime has never been under more stress. Regime change is in the air."Trump and his top officials insist that is not their goal -- especially not through the use of force. "We do not seek war, we do not seek nation-building, we do not seek regime change," the president said in remarks this month.It is clear, however, that administration officials hope to undermine the Iranian government. Early in Trump's presidency, a memo that circulated in his White House written by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, suggested "a strategy of coerced democratization" for Iran."The reality is that Iran's regional behavior is not going to meaningfully change until at a minimum there is a different supreme leader, and perhaps not even until there is a different government altogether in Tehran," said Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Ayatollah Khamenei is 80, but his successor will be chosen by a conservative clerical body. Iran does hold ostensibly democratic elections for its presidency, but the ayatollah can handpick candidates, and recent elections have been marred by fraud.In the meantime, few analysts believe that recurring protests portend another Iranian revolution. Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said the government's crackdown on demonstrations last fall showed its fierce determination to retain power. But he added, "The Trump administration got the opposite message, which is that the maximum pressure campaign is working."He also questioned Pompeo's assertion that the killing of Soleimani had restored "deterrence" against aggression by Iran, citing its missile attacks last week on bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed."If firing missiles into bases housing U.S. soldiers is 'restoring deterrence,' I don't know what the word means anymore," Vaez said.But as Trump moves into the next stage of his showdown with Iran, one question is whether his impulsive approach could abruptly shift.Paul Salem, the president of the Middle East Institute, noted that Trump's Iran policy had been shaped by hawkish officials, including Pompeo, Hook and, until his departure in September, Bolton.Those officials believe "that the Islamic republic is beyond hope and that the options are to weaken it or let it collapse, and they are not interested in giving it a deal," he said.But Salem added, "I don't think that's what Mr. Trump wants." The president loves a grand bargain, and repeatedly says he is open to a deal with Tehran.Last week, Trump said that such a deal could allow Iran "to thrive and prosper, and take advantage of its enormous untapped potential. Iran can be a great country."In that moment, his vision sounded much like Obama's -- even if their approaches couldn't be more different.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2020 The New York Times Company
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| Trump and China Agree to Trade Truce—For Now Posted: 15 Jan 2020 11:45 AM PST  President Trump signed his "big, beautiful monster" of a trade deal with China Wednesday.Love it or hate it, the monstrous Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People's Republic of China is, as the administration claims, "historic." Trump's Iran Clusterfuckery Just Handed the Middle East to ChinaThe U.S., recognizing that Chinese ruler Xi Jinping is increasingly dictating economic outcomes, is moving away from free trade to managed trade. Accordingly, Trump got China to promise this year and next to make purchases of U.S. goods and services of at least $200 billion over what it imported in 2017. Much of the commitment involves agricultural products. Manufactured goods and energy products are included as well. Some specifics of the purchase commitments are documented in a "confidential annex" to the agreement, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Bloomberg News in a joint email.The 86-page Phase One deal, as it is commonly known, includes intellectual property protections and rules against China requiring technology transfers as the price of admission to that country's market. Beijing has also agreed to manage its currency transparently and to grant greater access to foreign financial services firms.Disappointing to many, the deal includes no reductions in tariffs beyond those made in December. Last month, the United States did not go ahead with scheduled tariffs to be imposed under the authority of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 as a remedy for the theft of U.S. intellectual property. Moreover, the administration cut in half 301 tariffs previously put on certain Chinese goods. Similarly, China did not go ahead with additional tariffs of its own that month.There are mechanisms in the Phase One deal by which the U.S. can re-impose tariffs for noncompliance. Beijing is not permitted to retaliate for any proportional American snap-backs of tariffs made in good faith.The parties have deferred other issues, like Beijing's industrial subsidies and its cybersecurity rules, to a Phase Two deal. Many expect such discussions to be especially contentious, one of the reasons trade negotiations were split into two parts. Separately, Washington and Beijing announced the resumption of the U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, twice-a-year talks. The Treasury Department on Monday took China off its list of currency manipulators.President Trump calls the China deal a significant victory for America, but at best it is a truce. Moreover, it is a truce favoring China more than it initially appears. Beijing, before it inked the pact, got what it really needed.First, the deal restored faith in China's shattered economy. The country is not growing at the 6.1 percent pace analysts have pegged it at. In reality, growth is on a par with the United States—or slower. Business investment is stagnant, and consumer spending, despite rosy assessments, is not making up for sluggishness elsewhere. Bellwether car sales, for instance, fell 8.2 percent last year. Exports showed life in December—up 7.6 percent, the first positive number in five months—because of expectations of trade peace with the U.S. Second, the expectation of a Phase One pact encouraged companies to keep factories in China. Initially, trade friction between the world's two largest economies motivated some businesses—such as Google, GoPro, Nintendo, Fitbit, and RH—to move industrial production off Chinese soil. That offshoring is now slowing as business leaders are starting—perhaps too optimistically—to see an end to trade friction. China's Space Force Is Way Ahead of Trump's"The Trump administration's waffling on tariffs has convinced both suppliers and buyers that it is prudent to stay in China," Jonathan Bass of PTM Images, an advocate for manufacturing in the U.S., told The Daily Beast on Tuesday. "Nobody now wants to leave and have a competitor take their place at a low-cost Chinese factory."It is not entirely clear what the U.S. got in Phase One. Yes, there are promises, but China has made many promises in the past only to violate them later, sometimes with impunity. For instance, it still has not complied with its obligations, contained in its World Trade Organization accession agreement, to open its market to foreign payment processors by 2006. Moreover, America is not getting much in return for the December tariff concessions. Trump touts China's future purchases of U.S. farm products, but the country is suffering a severe food crisis and has to make big buys of foreign agriculture, deal or no deal. December food inflation, according to official statistics, was a staggering 17.4 percent year-on-year, which followed a 19.1 percent increase the preceding month. The African swine fever epidemic and armyworm infestation have devastated pork and crop output in the months before the weeks-long Lunar New Year holiday. As a result, an agricultural problem is now a political one. Beijing needs good American chow to keep the Chinese people happily fed.Furthermore, China's promises to buy substantial amounts of manufactured goods, although promising-looking at first glance, are probably just a mirage. It's hard to see how China could honor those commitments while its own manufacturing sector is faltering. In any event, pursuant to the WTO's nondiscrimination rule, Beijing may not conclude a side deal of this sort with the United States. China, therefore, must make the same offer to all other 161 WTO member states. That, as a practical matter, is impossible. There is, however, one thing Trump has accomplished with the Phase One deal. He has, in a real sense, changed the way Americans think about China. For decades, Washington policymakers thought they did not, on balance, have leverage over Beijing. Now, after two years of Trump's tough tactics, they understand they do indeed hold high cards. The sin of the Phase One agreement, therefore, is that Trump, possessing great power over China, could have pressed American interests further and gotten a better deal. Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| Egypt Detains Four Employees of Turkish State News Agency Posted: 15 Jan 2020 11:06 AM PST ![Egypt Detains Four Employees of Turkish State News Agency]( "Egypt Detains Four Employees of Turkish State News Agency") (Bloomberg) -- Egyptian police raided the Turkish state news agency's office in Cairo and detained four employees, a move that may strain already fraught relations between the regional rivals.Turkey's foreign ministry condemned the raid as an act of "intimidation and harassment," and demanded those detained late Tuesday be freed immediately. Anadolu Agency said they included a Turkish citizen. The Egyptian interior ministry said in an emailed statement that the four individuals, three Egyptians and one Turkish citizen, were Muslim Brotherhood members backed by Turkey and were arrested for spreading false and fabricated disinformation.The two countries have frequently been on rival sides of regional conflicts between Islamists and their opponents. Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to haul the Egyptian government before international courts after his jailed Islamist ally, former Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi, collapsed during a courtroom appearance and later died.Recently, Turkey's decision to send troops to Libya in support of the United Nations-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj threatened to deepen a growing proxy war pitting Ankara against Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who support eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar.Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi has come under fire for what rights groups say is a harsh crackdown on dissent. El-Sisi's critics say he's sharply curtailed freedoms since his 2014 election, widening a clampdown on the Muslim Brotherhood to activists and journalists. Turkey itself is ranked the world's second-worst jailer of journalists by a global watchdog.Authorities in Egypt have previously arrested reporters with the pan-Arab al-Jazeera network, which is funded by Qatar. The Gulf state was a key backer of Mursi, who was ousted by El-Sisi in 2013 after a military-backed popular uprising.(Adds Egyptian interior ministry's comment in third paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Cagan Koc in Istanbul at ckoc2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Onur Ant at oant@bloomberg.net, Amy TeibelFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Russian government resigns as Putin proposes constitutional changes Posted: 15 Jan 2020 10:33 AM PST  Russia's president Vladimir Putin on Wednesday launched a major political shake-up, replacing his prime minister Dmitry Medvedev and proposing a series of changes to Russia's constitution, in what was seen as an attempt to create options for retaining power after his presidential term expires in 2024. Putin used his annual state of the nation address in Moscow to announce several proposed amendments to the constitution, which would transfer greater power to Russia's parliament and which he said would be put to a national vote.
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| Shock as Putin names new PM, lays out constitutional reforms Posted: 15 Jan 2020 10:09 AM PST  Russian President Vladimir Putin named a little-known new prime minister and proposed a constitutional shake-up on Wednesday as he announced sweeping changes that fuelled speculation about his future plans. In a shock announcement, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said his government was stepping down after Putin used his annual state of the nation address to propose constitutional reforms that would strengthen parliament's role. Putin quickly nominated Mikhail Mishustin -- the long-serving head of Russia's tax service and seen as a technocrat -- to form a new government.
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| Israel starts pumping natural gas to neighboring Egypt Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:51 AM PST ![Israel starts pumping natural gas to neighboring Egypt]( "Israel starts pumping natural gas to neighboring Egypt") Israel announced Wednesday that it had started exporting natural gas to Egypt as part of an agreement reached between the two countries in December. The Egyptian ministry of petroleum hailed the gas flow as an "important step" that "serves the economic interests of both countries," raising hopes Egypt too will become a regional hub for energy. Israeli natural gas will flow to Europe through Egypt's liquified natural gas plants, the statement said.
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| What was Russia’s Putin up to after the death of Iran’s Soleimani? Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:47 AM PST  Russian President Vladimir Putin's movements since the recent U.S. killing of an Iranian general have underscored one of the most consequential trends driving events in the Middle East.
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| British Airways Owner Complains to EU About U.K.’s Flybe Rescue Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:43 AM PST ![British Airways Owner Complains to EU About U.K.'s Flybe Rescue]( "British Airways Owner Complains to EU About U.K.'s Flybe Rescue") (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.British Airways parent IAG SA filed a complaint to the European Union after Britain backed a rescue of regional carrier Flybe, which feeds passengers onto flights at rival Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd.The submission to the European Commission's competition arm says it would be unfair for the U.K. to defer Flybe tax payments, according to a person with knowledge of the filing who asked not to be named discussing it before details are public. Support may include a state-backed loan, another person has said.Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman, James Slack, said any changes to the levy, known as air passenger duty, will apply to all airlines and that the proposed help for Flybe doesn't amount to state aid. He declined to comment on the possible loan.Britain said Tuesday the deal allowing Flybe to continue flying included a review of APD, without specifying what that might entail. Flybe parent Connect Airways, made up of Virgin, private-equity firm Cyrus Capital and airport operator Stobart Group, has in turn committed to inject funds.The European Commission said in a statement it stands ready to discuss the compatibility of the proposed measures with EU state aid rules, and that intervention must avoid distorting competition. While Britain is set to leave the bloc at the end of this month, terms of the withdrawal agreement mean EU law will continue to apply during a transition period as if it were still a member.The commission separately confirmed that it had received a submission from IAG, without commenting further.While EU rules prevent state help conferring an unfair advantage, support for airline routes to remote regions is one of several exceptions that could win approval. Governments can always fund a company on the same terms as a private backer; payments only become aid if the lending conditions or amount are beyond what a normal investor would accept.Slack said any funding provided would be on "commercial terms" and that the U.K. Treasury has a "long track record of support for viable businesses with genuine short-term difficulties."More than 700,000 so called time-to-pay arrangements, under which companies spread out their tax payments, were in place at the end of the 2019 financial year, he said.Johnson's government took the unusual step -- for Britain -- of intervening to save a private company as the collapse of Flybe threatened to leave some of the most economically challenged parts of the U.K. with diminished transport links. Monarch Airlines, Flybmi and Thomas Cook Group Plc all failed without state help in the past 2 1/2 years.Flybe, the No. 1 U.K. carrier on domestic routes, was delisted in March after its purchase by Connect Airways for 2.2 million pounds ($2.9 million), with the consortium also providing 100 million pounds in further funding.The carrier, which employs about 2,400 people, has struggled for years with the narrow margins on regional routes, where demand is lower, together with fluctuating fuel prices and uncertainty around Brexit.(Updates with U.K. government comment on scale of tax easements from eighth paragraph)\--With assistance from Stephanie Bodoni and Aoife White.To contact the reporters on this story: Siddharth Philip in London at sphilip3@bloomberg.net;Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tara Patel at tpatel2@bloomberg.net, Christopher Jasper, Peter ChapmanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Johnson Takes Aim at U.K. Courts After Brexit Case Humiliation Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:23 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- Fresh from winning a commanding majority in last month's general election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is wasting no time in taking revenge for his humiliation last year at the hands of the U.K. courts.Johnson, who had to rush back from New York in September after the Supreme Court ruled his suspension of Parliament was unlawful, said he wants to block people taking legal action for political reasons."Our independent courts and legal system are admired around the world," Johnson told the House of Commons on Wednesday. "We will continue to ensure that judicial review is available to protect the rights of individuals against an overbearing state, while ensuring that it is not abused to conduct politics by another means or to create needless delays."In an unprecedented rebuke, the U.K.'s top judges ruled Johnson had acted wrongly by pushing through a five-week suspension of Parliament in the run-up to the Oct. 31 deadline he had set for leaving the European Union. He gave Queen Elizabeth II "unlawful" advice to pause the legislature, preventing elected politicians from scrutinizing his government's actions, the court found.Legal WoesJohnson's predecessor, Theresa May, also fought a series of court battles brought by pro-European Union campaigners seeking to hamper her plans for Brexit and was forced to give Parliament a say over leaving the bloc after the Supreme Court ruled against her in January 2017.Unable to win the support of lawmakers for her agreement with the EU, she failed in her mission to take the U.K. out of the bloc.It's already clear that Johnson, who won the election with a promise to "get Brexit done," will do all he can to stop the same thing happening in future.He's not the first prime minister to try. David Cameron railed against "completely pointless" judicial reviews in 2012. But Johnson, with his 80-seat majority in the House of Commons, may be able to deliver.\--With assistance from Alex Morales.To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Christopher ElserFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Pakistan: 21 more bodies recovered in avalanche-hit Kashmir Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:17 AM PST  Search teams aided by Pakistani troops pulled out 21 more bodies from homes destroyed by this week's avalanches in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, raising the overall death toll due to severe winter weather to 160 for Pakistan and Afghanistan, officials said Wednesday. Rescuers were racing against time to reach scores of people believed still to be trapped inside their homes, buried under avalanches triggered by heavy snowfall in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
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| Watch: Russian PM announces his resignation after Putin proposes constitutional shake-up Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:13 AM PST ![Watch: Russian PM announces his resignation after Putin proposes constitutional shake-up]( "Watch: Russian PM announces his resignation after Putin proposes constitutional shake-up") President Vladimir Putin engineered a shakeup of Russia's leadership on Wednesday, proposing changes to the constitution that could keep him in power well past the end of his term in 2024. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned his post soon after but Putin kept his longtime ally in the Kremlin's leadership structure, appointing him to the newly created post of deputy head of the presidential Security Council. The shakeup sent shock waves through Russia's political elites who were left pondering what Putin's intentions were and speculating about future Cabinet appointments.
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| Can Trump manage a Mideast crisis? Why Israelis have concerns. Posted: 15 Jan 2020 09:11 AM PST ![Can Trump manage a Mideast crisis? Why Israelis have concerns.]( "Can Trump manage a Mideast crisis? Why Israelis have concerns.") Following the U.S. killing of General Soleimani of Iran, Israel is having a crisis of confidence in the Trump administration's policymaking process.
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| Putin Launches Overhaul That May Extend His 20-Year Russian Rule Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:50 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.President Vladimir Putin replaced his long-serving prime minister and called for sweeping constitutional changes, fueling speculation that the Russian leader is moving to extend his grip on power beyond the end of his term in 2024.The constitution now requires Putin to step down as president then but he could take on another post to ensure his continued influence. Putin hasn't commented on his plans and his proposals didn't include any overhauls that would have created a new post for him. But the shifts could reduce the sweeping powers currently held by the president, potentially reining in any successor while making other bodies more influential.Putin gave little public explanation for the dramatic and unexpected upheaval, which saw Dmitry Medvedev, one of his most loyal lieutenants, ousted after nearly 8 years in office. Medvedev became premier in 2012 after stepping down as president to make way for Putin's return to the Kremlin. He will take a new position as deputy chairman of the Security Council, reporting to Putin.Putin later nominated Mikhail Mishustin, 53, a low-profile technocrat who heads the Federal Tax Service, as his successor, the Kremlin said.Thereshuffle shocked even some top officials, with the speaker of the lower house of parliament interrupting a meeting with legislative leaders to confirm the news, according to a person familiar with the session. It came after Putin outlined a raft of proposed constitutional changes in his state-of-the-nation address Wednesday, aimed at strengthening the roles of parliament and other government bodies.The two men appeared on state television in a choreographed announcement to tell ministers of Medvedev's departure and the resignation of the government.'Fundamental Changes'The reforms set out by Putin will mean "fundamental changes" to the constitution "and the balance of power," Medvedev said. "In these circumstances, I think it would be right for the government to resign," he said.Putin, 67, said the government hasn't fulfilled all of its tasks, though "I want to express my satisfaction at what was achieved. Not everything was successful of course but it never totally is."Medvedev has been blamed for lackluster economic performance and stagnant living standards over the last five years.Mishustin is known as a technocrat who implemented computer systems across the sprawling tax agency in a drive that cut evasion and boosted collections. He's not seen as a political power player, however. An economics PhD and former president of UFG Asset Management in Russia, he served as a deputy tax minister for five years until 2004. He became head of the Federal Tax Service in April 2010.The ruble was little changed on the news of the appointment, trading weaker by about 0.2% against the dollar as of 7:15 p.m. in Moscow."This is all about the transition of power," said Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Moscow-based Center for Political Technologies. "The new prime minister will get to open the purse-strings and could become very popular."Growth is forecast to accelerate this year as government spending programs pick up, but Putin's goal of expanding faster than 3% a year is still seen as out of reach by many economists.Mishustin's low political profile left some analysts skeptical of his prospects to become a major figure."No one can know for sure but he looks more like a technical prime minister," said Tatiana Stanovaya, head of R.Politik, a political consultancy. "Putin has four years to go before 2024 and has time to decide."Medvedev, 54, served four years as president from 2008 when Putin left the Kremlin to comply with constitutional term limits. Seen initially as a standard-bearer for liberal reforms, he surrendered the presidency back to Putin at the end of his first term. He's been among Putin's closest political allies since they worked together in St. Petersburg city council in the early 1990s after the Soviet Union's collapse."Putin needs a government that's a driver of economic growth and Medvedev wasn't effective," said Sergei Markov, a political consultant in Moscow who advises the Kremlin.Putin had also criticized the government for being slow to start a massive infrastructure-spending program last year that he had made a key pillar of his re-election campaign in 2018. Officials blamed the delays for the lackluster economic performance last year.'Serious Changes'In his annual address, Putin called for measures to allow the parliament greater say in approving the prime minister and cabinet officials. The State Council, now a largely ceremonial body, would get more clearly defined powers written into the constitution. The reforms would be subject to a public vote before being approved, he said."These are very serious changes to the political system," Putin said.Stanovaya, the political consultant, said Putin "is putting in place a system to limit the powers of his successor." The Russian leader could switch to a role at the head of a strengthened State Council endowed with significant new powers, she said.For the moment, the government will remain in place while Putin decides on replacements. Mishustin's nomination is subject to parliamentary confirmation, but that's a formality as the ruling party has a commanding majority. A vote is expected Thursday, the official RIA Novosti and Tass news agencies reported."This is not about invigorating reform -- it is primarily about altering the rules so that Putin can maintain his leading position in the country, in one role or another," Charles Robertson, Renaissance Capital global chief economist, wrote before Mishustin's candidacy was announced.(Updates with details on Mishustin from 5th paragraph.)\--With assistance from Evgenia Pismennaya, Stepan Kravchenko and Irina Reznik.To contact the reporters on this story: Ilya Arkhipov in Moscow at iarkhipov@bloomberg.net;Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Gregory L. White at gwhite64@bloomberg.net, Tony HalpinFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Putin’s Power Play: Shuffle the Cabinet But Keep Command Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:46 AM PST  MOSCOW—During his annual state of the nation address to the Russian parliament on Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin said repeatedly that the Russian people expect changes, and the one announced less than three hours later—described on Kommersant FM radio as "Operation Successor"—seemed to throw a lot of cards up in the air. Putin Can Teach Trump a Lot About Hanging on to PowerThe Russian prime minister, Dmitry Medvev, and the whole cabinet resigned, leaving more than 140 million people wondering what political course their country is about to take, whether more liberal at last, or even more conservative. "Not everything was done," Putin said after that announcement, praising the cabinet faintly, "but 'everything' never works out." The political elite is being careful with its comments since few know who will benefit from this major change. Predictions by Russian pundits about the next PM bounced from the most liberal to the most conservative candidates. So, what does all this resigning really mean?Former member of parliament Gennady Gudkov had one of the darkest predictions. "Now, officially they are taking a course toward unchangeable power, that would not respect any international laws: tomorrow we are going to wake up in a dictatorship, like Turkmenistan with a national leader who will be never replaced," Gudkov said. "Putin will be playing the role of the PM and the head of state, he will assign judges." All aspects of national government will be in Putin's hands without checks or balances, and the country will ignore outside judgments. Major decisions by international courts are expected, including about the downing of the Malaysian airliner MH17 over Ukraine in 2014, but, "Russia will not obey the decisions," said Gudkov. One of the leading observers on radio Echo of Moscow, Olga Bychkova, believes that not only Russia's wars but also Russia's political system will be hybrid now, too.. "Putin could not exchange places with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for the second time in 2024, so now he is inventing a new scheme with some weak PM for this transition period; one thing is clear, there will be no liberalization." Before these surprise announcements in the middle of the afternoon, Putin had been telling the parliament and people of Russia about the country's growing power—especially military power— on the international scene. And amid all the talk of a government shake-up it is not clear at all when or if he would ever give up a role as Commander in Chief.Putin spoke about the "unpredictable" situation in the Middle East, where Russia's ambitions and its presence grow by the day. He insisted that Russia is not threatening anybody, that its goal is to call on the five major nuclear weapons states to keep the peace: "It is necessary to demonstrate the will, wisdom, and courage," Putin said about the situation in the region.More than a little triumphalism could be heard in Putin's tone as he addressed dozens of officials, including silver-haired bureaucrats, women, and Orthodox and Muslim religious leaders: "For the first time in the history of nuclear missiles, including the Soviet period, we are not trying to catch up. On the contrary, the world's leading states aim to create the weapons that Russia already owns." Putin added that Russia had produced enough weapons "for decades to come." Amid Iran Crisis, Russia's Mideast Presence Just Keeps GrowingIn his speech, Putin said he intended to change the State Constitution, altering the balance of power between the President and the Parliament, and to hold a public referendum on the subject. The result: rampant speculation that when his current presidential term ends, he may seek to retain power as the country's prime minister, which he did after his first two terms as president. After that hiatus, he is now in his fourth term."I was listening to the president's address today wondering who is going to solve all these problems," parliamentary deputy Sergei Mironov told Kommersant, speculating that Aleksei Kudrin, a former minister of finance, could be one of the candidates for the PM's post.In any case, the Kremlin is not going to weaken its grip on the political arena or cut down on its defense programs. At the NATO summit last month, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke about military challenges in the relationships with Moscow: "We strongly believe in dialogue with Russia. We believe in arms control. We must avoid a new arms race—that's dangerous, especially when it comes to nuclear weapons." In other words, the threat of such a race seems near at hand.Russia is aware that after the collapse of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Force treaty a year ago, when the Trump administration pulled out, the world has been paying close attention to Russia's ballistic missile programs—and Moscow is only too happy to show off its ambitious weapons. Every day the channel of the Russian Defense Ministry, Zvezda, broadcasts military tests of the newest weapons as well as videos of military training. This week, Zvezda says, the Russian military is providing air defense for Syria, while hundreds of civilians leave Idlib in Aleppo province. The Kremlin portrays Russia as a victorious peacemaker in the Middle East, a source of stability—a role that would be welcomed by millions of Russians, if only it were true. Over the last six years, Russia has been accused of committing war crimes and carrying out assassinations in Ukraine, Syria, the European Union, and Africa, even as the Kremlin is trying to promote Russia as a predictable, reliable ally, in contrast to the United States of Donald Trump.Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers serve, some officially, some not, in post-Soviet countries. These include Tajikistan, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, and in the Middle East and Africa. But the Kremlin does not reveal a true picture of the price Russia pays with human lives for the Kremlin's ambitions. Independent military analyst Alexander Golts cites the outcome of a battle in eastern Ukraine in September 2014 that reportedly killed up to 200 Russian soldiers: "When hundreds of dead are counted in the aftermath," says Golts, "Putin immediately backs up."Russia has not been admitting its military presence in Ukraine, Libya, Sudan, and Central African Republic but its mercenaries, soldiers' widows, and friends tell reporters about Wagner and other mercenaries fighting and dying abroad. That said, compared to U.S. losses in military adventures since 2002—with more than 4,200 American soldiers killed in Iraq—the cost to Russia of its interventions in Syria or Ukraine still can be counted in the hundreds.To recruit more soldiers for the Middle East, the Defense Ministry shows propaganda films and invite veterans to talk about their success and earnings. "The recruitment is like hypnosis, I don't remember how I signed the contract for Syria, I was not thinking straight," Oleg, a 23-year-old event manager in Moscow told The Daily Beast in a recent interview. He was serving in Rostov on Don in 2018. Officers promised he would make more than 500,000 rubles, about $8,140. in four months without risking much. "The money sounded appealing, I guess; but my grandfather, a retired officer, made me break the contract; I am happy I did not go to Syria," Oleg said. Families of mercenary soldiers killed in Russia's secret operations complain about unpaid compensations, but who can they sue and in what court? According to the latest social polls by Levada Center of sociological studies, 39 percent of Russian citizens say that the court system does not really deserve trust and 23 percent believe that the courts are not to be trusted at all. As a result, Russia is the world's leading country when it comes to the number of applications to the European Court of Human Rights. But Putin decided to close the window. "The demands of international legislation and treaties, and also the decisions of international bodies can only apply to Russia's territory when they do not entail restricting human rights and freedoms, and do not contradict our constitution," he said, leaving it to his own government to interpret what "human rights and freedom" means.Many of Putin's supporters welcomed that thumb in the eye of international courts. "It is important that we won't obey international laws, finally, " Oscar-winning film director Nikita Mikhalkov said after Putin's address.Clearly, many Russians embrace Putin's model for ruling the country: respect for the right of the strongest. "Nobody knows how to make an authoritarian country with a huge nuclear arsenal obey international law, except to recognize its power," Golts told The Daily Beast. And nobody knows that better than Vladimir Putin.Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| The Crown Prince of Iran Pitches Regime Change to Washington Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:41 AM PST  The neoconservative Hudson Institute hosted the son of Iran's late Shah. He painted a picture of Iran on the brink of collapse—and presented a plan to manage the coming "implosion" with a "minimum of casualties."
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| Groups: Syrian planes strike market in rebel area, 15 dead Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:35 AM PST  Syrian government warplanes struck a market and an industrial area Wednesday in the last territory in the hands of rebel groups in the country's northwest, killing at least 15 people, opposition activists said. A new cessation of hostilities agreement between Russia and Turkey, who support the opposite sides in the conflict, went into effect last week. Yahya Abu al-Yaman, a volunteer with first responders the Syrian Civil Defense, said 15 people were killed and 65 were wounded in the strike.
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| How Boris Johnson’s Flybe Bailout Could Define his Brexit Premiership Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:31 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- It's the question that could define Boris Johnson's premiership. Just what kind of a Conservative will the British prime minister turn out to be when it comes to business?Is he a Thatcherite free marketeer, content to let companies go bust, or an interventionist willing to prop up failing firms to please his own supporters?This week, Johnson's government gave a heavy hint of the answer: Ministers stepped in to save ailing regional airline Flybe from collapse. The rescue package includes a tax break and, potentially, a state-backed loan.The intervention stood in sharp contrast to the Tories' previous laissez-faire approach.In early 2018, Theresa May's administration allowed Carillion Plc to fail -- even though it employed 20,000 people in Britain and was working on a range of government contracts from hospitals to the HS2 high-speed rail project.Last year, Johnson himself allowed travel operator Thomas Cook Group Plc to go under, forcing the government to deploy what it called the "largest repatriation in peacetime history" to bring home more than 150,000 tourists stranded on overseas vacations. Flybmi and Monarch Airlines have also been left to fail without state help over the past three years.For this prime minister, however, the calculation has changed. Last month, Johnson won the biggest Conservative majority for more than 30 years in an election that saw his party seize swaths of territory in northern England and parts of central England which the left-wing Labour Party had held for decades.Getting Brexit DoneJohnson won over life-long Labour voters not only by promising to "get Brexit done" -- but also by matching his opponent's pledges to end the post financial crisis era of austerity and spend more on health care, even if that meant canceling a tax cut for business.As the U.K.'s dominant domestic regional airline, Flybe links voters in far-flung areas such as the coast of Wales and northeastern Scotland with the country's economic heart in London and the southeast. According to Cabinet minister Nicky Morgan, this was "very critical" to the decision to save the company."One of the abiding messages over the last couple of years from the country to our politicians has been, actually, don't forget that there is a lot more to the country than just London and the southeast," Morgan said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio on Wednesday. "Every case obviously has to be considered on the circumstances, but Flybe is very important for regional connectivity."For Andrew Bowie, one of the few Tories in Scotland who held their seats in last month's election, the decision to support Flybe shows "our determination to deliver on our manifesto commitment to level up and govern for the whole country."Bowie's Aberdeenshire constituency in northeastern Scotland would have been affected by the failure of Flybe, which provides a large portion of the flights to Aberdeen."Essential Service""Flybe provides an essential service linking some of our most important cities to each other and to hub airports like London Heathrow," said Bowie. "For their economies it was vital that the government took the action it did."The bailout hasn't impressed everyone. British Airways' parent, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, has filed a complaint to the European Union's competition watchdog, saying a plan to defer Flybe's air passenger duty payments amounts to unfair state aid.And the next phase of Brexit negotiations -- focusing on the future trading relationship between the U.K. and the EU -- is set to sharpen the question further for Johnson's government.The European Commission has made clear it will hold Johnson to promises he made when last year's Brexit agreement was finally struck to ensure Britain won't undercut the EU in areas such as taxation, state subsidies and environmental standards."No Alignment"In a presentation to the bloc's remaining governments earlier this week, the Commission said a free trade agreement is possible "insofar" as there are sufficient guarantees for a so-called "level-playing field." The phrase is repeated 12 times in the 17 slides distributed to member states by the bloc's executive arm.Johnson is taking a radically different view as he prepares to work toward a slimmed down trade agreement with the EU by the end of this year. On Wednesday, his office repeated that there will be "no alignment" with the EU's regulations after Brexit.As ever, the political reality may provide its own corrective. A bare-bones trade deal with the EU could push some companies to reconsider their place in Britain, while others may struggle to remain viable.If businesses start to teeter in parts of the U.K. critical to Johnson's political success, he may be tempted to step in again. Flybe could just be the start.\--With assistance from Aoife White and Nikos Chrysoloras.To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net;Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Edward Evans, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Wednesday evening news briefing: Vladimir Putin plans sweeping constitutional changes in 'bid to keep power' in Russia Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:23 AM PST ![Wednesday evening news briefing: Vladimir Putin plans sweeping constitutional changes in 'bid to keep power' in Russia]( "Wednesday evening news briefing: Vladimir Putin plans sweeping constitutional changes in 'bid to keep power' in Russia") If you want to receive twice-daily briefings like this by email, sign up to the Front Page newsletter here. For two-minute audio updates, try The Briefing - on podcasts, smart speakers and WhatsApp. Russian government resigns amid Putin 'bid for power' Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev submitted his resignation to President Vladimir Putin today, with the Russian leader widely believed to be planning to hold on to power. The announcement by Putin's longtime ally came after the president used his annual state of the nation address to call for a nationwide vote on a package of constitutional reforms. Putin, who is serving his fourth term as president, is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election in 2024. Speculation has been rife he was looking to amend the Russian constitution to stay in another capacity - possibly as a prime minister or as chairman of parliament or of the State Council, an important advisory body. Few believe the man who has ruled Russia for 20 years will find it easy to let go of the reins of power. Roland Oliphant outlines the ways he might retain his hold on the country. Indeed, an entire generation has been born and come of age under Putin, who assumed office on Dec 31, 1999, after President Boris Yeltsin resigned in a New Year's address and named him a successor. Nataliya Vasilyeva reveals how Russia's younger generation have lost the capacity to imagine another future. Nandy: Corbyn 'fell into trap' laid by Tories over Brexit Lisa Nandy has criticised Jeremy Corbyn for having fallen "into a trap" laid by the Tories over Brexit as she blamed a divisive narrative that said people were either "for your country or for the world". Giving a speech at the Royal Society of Arts as part of her bid to secure the leadership, the MP for Wigan hit out at the "fully fledged culture war" she said developed during the referendum. It comes after Momentum, the pro-Corbyn campaign group, was accused of attempting to "stitch up" the Labour leadership contest. Harry Yorke explains how. William and Kate's first appearance since royal split The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge have returned to royal duties for their first official engagement of the year following a tumultuous week for the Royal family. William and Kate arrived in Bradford to cheers from several hundred well-wishers in Centenary Square. Charlie Gowans-Eglinton analyses the "business as usual" message behind the Duchess of Cambridge's high-low Bradford outfit. It comes just days after the Queen agreed the Duke and Duchess of Sussex could step back as senior royals and begin a "new life" as an "independent" family. And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has agreed with concerns raised by the Duke of Sussex about "racial undertones" in press coverage of the Duchess. News digest Storm Brendan | Roof ripped off building amid 200 flood warnings Sharon Beshenivsky | Arrest 14 years after policewoman shot dead County lines | Drug dealers face longer sentences for using children Flybe rescue | BA's owner complains to EU over government action Property values | House prices climb at fastest pace in two years Video: Attenborough's climate warning in film trailer Sir David Attenborough warns "human beings have overrun the world" in a trailer for his new film. The feature-length documentary, titled David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet, looks back on the defining moments of his life and the environmental devastation that has taken place during that time. Read on for details. Comment Con Coughlin | The downfall of Iran's ayatollahs is a matter of time Joanna Rossiter | Vulnerable women were sacrificed for 'woke' values Mike Warburton | What my call with Boris told me about the Budget Naomi Southwell | Why vagina-scented candles are a burning issue Christina Hopkinson | As a mum, I think Billie Eilish is a role model World news: The one story you must read today... Sanders handshake snubbed | Elizabeth Warren took Bernie Sanders head-on over his alleged comment that a woman could not beat Donald Trump, saying she had never lost an election, unlike the men on the debate stage. Video footage also appeared to show Ms Warren declining to shake hands with Mr Sanders as they exchanged words after the final televised debate before voting begins for the Democratic nomination. Editor's choice Hampton Court Palace | Revealing its secrets in an exclusive behind-the-scenes tour Moral Money | 'Can I refuse to pay £225 for a bridesmaid's dress for best friend's wedding?' Before Hollywood was 'woke' | 17 politically incorrect movies that wouldn't be made today Business and money briefing Inflation falls | Interest rates should be cut to combat the risk of the UK getting stuck in a "low inflation trap", Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders said. His comments came as the Bank's target rate of inflation fell to 1.3pc, its lowest since November 2016. It leaves the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on a knife edge. Stock markets | Is the party over for the biggest equities bubble ever? New boss | The Guardian turns to science in hunt for reader income On top of markets | Live stocks and shares updates 24 hours a day Sport briefing Nike shoes controversy | Eliud Kipchoge insists the Nike shoes he wore when becoming the first person to run a marathon distance in less than two hours are "fair", as World Athletics is understood to be planning new regulations prohibiting their use in professional competition. Australian Open | Angry players' plea for action over smoke danger Six Nations | Wales name Saracens' Nick Tompkins in squad Scotland squad | Stuart Hogg named captain ahead of Six Nations Tonight's TV Good Omens, BBC Two, 9pm | Amazon Prime's no-holds-barred adaptation of Neil Gaiman and Terry Pratchett's beloved, kaleidoscopic pre-apocalyptic comic fantasy arrives on terrestrial TV six months after its debut. Read on for more. And finally... Long road to recovery | Over 17 miles of potholes were reported last year, it has been revealed, as small businesses put pressure on the Government to increase funding for repairs. The length of all holes would be deeper than the lowest point of the Grand Canyon and equivalent to 292 Big Bens, according to new research from the Federation of Small Businesses. Read on for more facts and figures.
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| 2019 was the second hottest year on record Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:16 AM PST  The 2010s were the hottest decade on record and 2019 the second hottest year, according to data released on Wednesday by the United Nations. Extreme events such as the wildfires in Australia are likely to become much more common as the warming trend continues, the World Meteorological Organisation said. "Unfortunately, we expect to see much extreme weather throughout 2020 and the coming decades, fuelled by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. It comes after scientists earlier this week said the world's oceans were also the hottest on record last year, and had absorbed the equivalent to 3.6 billion Hiroshima atom bomb explosions over the past 25 years. More than 90 per cent of excess heat is stored in the oceans, making them a key measure of warming. Warming temperatures have been blamed for melting ice in the Arctic Credit: PA The UN body compiled data from five sources, including the Met Office and Nasa, and compared to records dating back to 1850 to show that the world has warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius since the industrial era. Last year was only cooler than 2016, which was affected by the warming impact of a particularly strong El Nino climate cycle. It also showed that average global temperatures during the past five years were also the highest ever recorded. Read more | Australia's bushfire crisis Governments have committed to targets to keep warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, in order to limit the catastrophic impact including widespread drought, loss of coral reefs and melting of nearly all Arctic sea ice. Higher temperatures have been blamed for the severity of the wildfire season in Australia, which has killed 28 people and burned more than 15 million acres across the country. The Aletsch glacier above Bettmeralp, Swiss Alps, which could completely disappear by the end of this century Credit: AFP The world is currently on track for a warming of at least 3 degrees Celsius, despite climate change dominating the global political agenda. For the first time, business leaders heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos next week identified climate-change related threats as the biggest global risks, a survey showed yesterday. The UK has set committed to bringing all emissions of all greenhouse gases, the major contributor to warming, to net zero by 2050. But it has not yet laid out a roadmap for how it will achieve the goal. Global land-ocean temperature index This year will be crunch time for the Paris climate agreement, under which nations signed up to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. The UK will host the COP26 summit later this year in Glasgow, where signatories are expected to present their plans to reach the target. "If we look at all the impacts around the world that are now occurring as a result of this warming, it is obvious that we are not succeeding in preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," said Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
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| Putin Nominates Tax Chief Mishustin for Prime Minister: Interfax Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:15 AM PST ![Putin Nominates Tax Chief Mishustin for Prime Minister: Interfax]( "Putin Nominates Tax Chief Mishustin for Prime Minister: Interfax") (Bloomberg) -- President Vladimir Putin nominated the head of his tax service Mikhail Mishustin to be Russia's next prime minister, Interfax reported.Mishustin, 53, has led the tax service since 2010 and helped increase collections through introducing new technology. Before that, he was president of Moscow-based UFG Asset Management.To view the source of this information click hereRead more: Putin to Name New Government Amid Major Constitutional ShakeupTo contact the reporter on this story: Scott Rose in Moscow at rrose10@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Lauren Berry at lberry4@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Russian Markets Brace for Putin’s Pick as PM: Analyst Roundup Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:07 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- Market reaction to the resignation of Russia's prime minister proved fleeting as investors turned their attention to the question of who President Vladimir Putin appoints.The ruble briefly slipped lower following the announcement that Dmitry Medvedev would step down, dissolving the government. The currency soon pared losses, trading down 0.2% at 61.5750 per dollar at 6:28 p.m. in Moscow.While some observers argued that a new government could boost Russia's anemic pace of economic growth, others said that there could be a period of political uncertainty that may undermine the ruble's strength.Here's how analysts and economists reacted to the news:Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank in Moscow"A political risk premium could now return to the market"Market could react positively "if the new prime minister is known to the market and from the economic bloc, however if the President decides to appoint a young unknown candidate, that is likely to create some uncertainty"Piotr Matys, emerging markets strategist at Rabobank in LondonGovernment resignation "increases political uncertainty and should prevent the ruble from regaining its bullish momentum, at least in the coming days until Putin reveals names of potential candidates"Dmitry Dolgin, economist at ING in MoscowForeign investors liked that "the outgoing government's priority was conservative budget policy;" "now there could be a turn to a more generous budget policy"Dolgin said he doesn't expect a sell-off in Russian assets as the event looked well-preparedIvan Tchakarov, economist at Citigroup Inc. in MoscowSees government resignation as as an attempt by Putin to "shake up" Russia's politics and focus on its slowly-progressing public spending program"We expect a new government that spends more proactively to boost growth and incomes while preserving overall fiscal prudence"Charles Robertson, London-based chief economist at RenCapSays that "no market reaction is justified by Medvedev's departure," but if a reformer is appointed prime minister, assets could get a boost"This is not about invigorating reform – it is primarily about altering the rules so that Putin can maintain his leading position in the country, in one role or another"\--With assistance from Anya Andrianova, Kira Zavyalova and Olga Voitova.To contact the reporter on this story: Áine Quinn in Moscow at aquinn38@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Alex Nicholson at anicholson6@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Medvedev: loyal ally exits after decades with Putin Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:07 AM PST  Dmitry Medvedev, who has lost his post as prime minister following the government's resignation, served a single term as president before standing aside to allow Vladimir Putin's return to the Kremlin in 2012. It's unclear how much power Medvedev will have in the newly-created post of deputy head of the Russian security council after his momentous resignation Wednesday. While president, Medvedev launched a campaign of modernisation to pull the country out of its post-Soviet stagnation but never escaped the shadow of his dominant mentor, to whom he remained resolutely loyal.
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| Fever chart: Earth had its hottest decade on record in 2010s Posted: 15 Jan 2020 08:00 AM PST  "If you think you've heard this story before, you haven't seen anything yet," Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said at the close of a decade plagued by raging wildfires, melting ice and extreme weather that researchers have repeatedly tied to human activity. Schmidt said Earth as a whole is probably the hottest it has been during the Holocene — the past 11,500 years or so — meaning this could be the warmest period since the dawn of civilization. The 2010s averaged 58.4 degrees Fahrenheit (14.7 degrees Celsius) worldwide, or 1.4 degrees (0.8 C) higher than the 20th century average and more than one-third of a degree (one-fifth of a degree C) warmer than the previous decade, which had been the hottest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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| Trump puts 'celebrity' terrorism targets ahead of national security – ex-CIA man Posted: 15 Jan 2020 07:55 AM PST  The president's decision to kill Suleimani stemmed from ego rather than the country's best interests, Douglas London claimsDonald Trump's approach to counter-terrorism is to go after "celebrity" targets with famous names, regardless of the implications for national security, according to a former CIA officer who served under him.In the wake of the assassination of Qassem Suleimani – and the administration's contradictory justifications for the strike – Douglas London, a recently retired senior CIA operations officer, has suggested that the decision to kill the Iranian general may have had more to do with the president's personality than any security considerations."When it comes to intelligence, like with so much else, Donald Trump likes big names," London wrote on the legal website, JustSecurity. "It's this focus on celebrity, headlines, and immediate gratification – versus substance, impact, and consequences – that so often motivates him."Partly because of this, as a senior CIA counterterrorist manager, my team and I often struggled in persuading the president to recognize the most important threats," London, who now teaches at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, said. "Now, with the killing of Qassem Suleimani, I worry that while Trump got a big name and lots of headlines, the long-term impact on US strategic interests was not fully considered."London retired from the CIA at the end of 2018, and his last post was as the chief of counter-terrorism for south and south-west Asia. In his article, London suggested the Suleimani assassination is part of trend. He said Trump was "obsessed" with targeting Osama bin Laden's son, Hamza, despite being told by his intelligence briefers that he was not likely to succeed Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current al-Qaida leader. Intelligence assessments said that Zawahiri and his senior lieutenants posed a greater danger, but "the president thought differently"."Trump's obsession in focusing resources against Osama bin Laden's son Hamza is one example of the president's preference for a 'celebrity'-targeted killing versus prioritizing options that could prove better for US security," London said.In July, it was reported that Hamza bin Laden had been killed. London did not quite confirm that his former agency was behind the death, but noted a news account quoting US officials as saying the US "played a role in the operation that killed him".Trump showed the same obsession with notoriety after the strike killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, London wrote, saying that the president lost interest in pursuing lower-level operational Isis leaders."Although US efforts to target key Isis leaders and operatives had preempted what might have been any number of devastating terrorist attacks, the president's lack of familiarity with their names made such efforts, and their accomplishments, less consequential to him," he said.London added that the killing of Suleimani, the head of the elite Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, "appears to have been more about Trump, and the potential for headlines, rather than the intelligence".The decision showed "resistance to intelligence community input", London argued, and expressed doubt over reports that the CIA director, Gina Haspel, supported it.Trump has claimed that Suleimani was about to mount attacks on four US embassies, but his defence secretary, Mark Esper, has said he was unaware of such a threat, and the embassies do not appear to have been put on alert."I do not debate we had intelligence regarding any number of prospective attacks Iran was facilitating through proxies in Iraq, and elsewhere. But don't we always?" London asked. "It's what they do."He predicted that, after the initial waves of Iranian retaliatory missile attacks aimed US troops embedded in Iraqi bases, Iran would strike again, in covert ways."I expect that the Intelligence Community has told the president as much, or would have, if he bothered to solicit and value its input," London said. "Instead, the president's decision to kill Suleimani reflects his propensity to play a good hand badly and respond from ego rather than pragmatism and the country's best interests."
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| Why Is Everyone Talking About Amy Klobuchar’s Eyebrows & Not Her Policies? Posted: 15 Jan 2020 07:51 AM PST  In the last debate for Democratic candidates before the Iowa caucus, presidential hopefuls Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer took the stage to talk about important issues ranging from recent events in Iran to the wins of women in politics. But some viewers seemed to focus on something else entirely: Klobuchar's eyebrows.During her first question of the night, a zoomed-in frame of Klobuchar sparked certain reactions from Twitter users who noted her defined and arched eyebrows. And while we've seen Klobuchar combat criticism to her appearance before, the amount of attention to critiquing the Minnesota senator's face was quite overwhelming this time around. > When will the eyebrow artist explain what happened tonight> > — Jenée (@jdesmondharris) January 15, 2020> Ok but is her eyebrow falling or is it just me ? DemDebate AmyKlobuchar pic.twitter.com/YBFpBRhShV> > — meliZa (@mels_121) January 15, 2020So, why is it that everyone seemed was more focused on Klobuchar's eyebrows than on her political policies?Klobuchar gave insightful and quantifiable answers to debate questions on Tuesday, in tandem with her high polling performance in Iowa ahead of the caucus. During her stand-out debate night, she chimed in on recent events in Iran and the nuclear war agreement which she originally helped shape, citing her track record during her 12 years in Senate. While Klobuchar disagreed with some other candidates on whether or not to remove all armed forces from the Middle East, she said that she would "improve the situation for our troops in a very big way with our education, and with their jobs, and also with their health care." According to Klobuchar, as far as the Iran agreement goes, she said that "as president, I will get us back into that agreement. I will take an oath."She also joined Warren in celebrating the wins of women, specifically women in politics who have unseated male incumbents — including herself. "I have won every race, every place, every time," she said. Warren distinctly pointed out in a question about a woman's electability that she and Klobuchar were the only candidates on stage that had never lost an election they entered. Despite all of this, Klobuchar's appearance seemed to be a focal point for this debate.And, this isn't the first time people have commented on the senator's appearance, either. During the last debate, her bang's were the object of attention and speculation across the Twitterverse, particularly due to the fact that they would slightly shake every time the senator spoke. Her bangs caught so much attention that they were mentioned in the Saturday Night Live cold open. "Look, I could say a lot about the issues we've talked about tonight," said beloved SNL alum Rachel Dratch who portrayed Klobuchar. "But the sad thing is, you're not listening to a word I'm saying because you're just watching my hair dance on my forehead." The unfortunate truth is that, as a woman in politics, appearance will often outweigh positions on climate change, raising minimum wage, or even foreign policy. The fact is, Amy Klobuchar's eyebrows have nothing to do with her ability to lead this country — a point that was clearly brought up and thoroughly made in this particular debate. Rather than focus attention on the Senator's appearance, let's talk about how she plans to make her way to the Oval office.Related Content:Like what you see? How about some more R29 goodness, right here?The Case For Amy KlobucharKey Moments From The January Democratic DebateThe 2020 Presidential Race Faces A Diversity Issue
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| Putin's New Plan to Hold Power Forever Posted: 15 Jan 2020 07:38 AM PST ![Putin's New Plan to Hold Power Forever]( "Putin's New Plan to Hold Power Forever") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- In his state of the nation address on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a sweeping constitutional reform that would give him several options to retain power after 2024, when his term ends. The announcement led to the resignation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's government, showing that a full reset of Russia's governance system is underway — and that Medvedev won't succeed Putin as president, as he did for one term in 2008.Having spent the first hour of the 80-minute speech on demographics and the economy, Putin suddenly turned to the constitution. Most of his proposals would leave Russia, whose current constitution now enshrines near-dictatorial presidential powers, with a less powerful presidency — and a more limited choice of potential presidents.First, Putin suggested that only people who have resided in Russia continuously for more than 25 years and who have never possessed a foreign passport or permanent residence permit should be allowed to run for president. The current version of the constitution says a second citizenship in no way limits a Russian's rights. Putin's proposals would rule out a large number of wealthy and educated Russians. According to flawed official statistics, 543,000 Russians hold a second citizenship or a foreign residence permit. The reforms would also cut off the country's huge emigre community, which the United Nations Population Division estimates at 10.5 million, the equivalent of some 7% of Russia's population. This is part of what Putin sees as a sovereignty-enhancing package: According to the Russian leader, lower-ranking public servants, such as the prime minister, ministry heads, governors and judges should be banned from holding dual citizenship and foreign residence permits. He also wants Russian laws to take priority over international conventions, treaties and court rulings. Today, the constitution proclaims the priority of international obligations, which results in a steady stream of adverse rulings from the European Court of Human Rights (last year's decisions have cost Russia about $11.4 million in damages, but behind that relatively small amount is a string of political embarrassments) and some costly debacles in various economic tribunals, such as state-owned natural gas company Gazprom's loss of $2.6 billion to Naftogaz, the owner of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Putin wants to make it impossible for any outside actors — international courts, Russian emigres, foreign governments, Western educational institutions — to have any effect on Russia's inner workings.Today, it's up to the president to choose the prime minister (the lower house of parliament only "consents" to the decision) and appoint cabinet members. Putin proposed that the full approval procedure for the prime minister take place in the lower house; same for cabinet ministers, who would be picked by the prime minister, not the president. The latter would be obliged to accept the parliament's decisions. Moving on, Putin suggested giving the upper house of parliament — which, unlike the directly elected lower chamber, consists of regional representatives — a say in the key security, defense and foreign policy appointments, today an exclusive province of the president. He also signaled his consent to a change that would eliminate the loophole that allowed him to return to the Kremlin in 2012: the constitutional formula that bans a president from serving more than two consecutive terms. According to Putin, he's fine with eliminating the word "consecutive," which would bar him from reclaiming the presidency in the election of 2030, when he turns 78.It also would have limited the ability of Medvedev to serve as president for more than one term in addition to the four years he already served. But Medvedev's resignation as prime minister and the job offer Putin has made him — as number two on Russia's Security Council, an important advisory body but not as key as the cabinet — means he's not likely to be Putin's chosen successor. By proposing curbs on presidential powers, Putin opens three paths for himself after 2024 that are less straightforward than a direct prolongation of his powers, as has occurred in Belarus and several ex-Soviet Central Asian nations. One is to become a prime minister with strengthened powers and stay on indefinitely. Another is to try running the country from the parliament speaker's chair. The third is to govern from behind the scenes as the leader of the parliament's dominant party — the way Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice Party, runs Poland.All of these options require continued control over Russia's political system, sufficient for the parliament to remain, in effect, a one-party body. As the political analyst Kirill Rogov put it in a Facebook post, "In a noncompetitive system without free access to elections for parties and candidates and with unfair, falsified elections, the transfer of powers to parliament would, most likely, mean the transfer of these powers to the leadership of the party that dominates in parliament." He went on:Such a configuration, which resembles the Chinese one, will allow Putin to retain de facto control indefinitely, while putting forward an entire group of potential successors who would compete among themselves.But even Putin's knowledge and control of the Russian political system don't provide a strong guarantee of lifelong power retention or, perhaps more importantly for Putin, a lifelong personal security guarantee. Strengthening other players in a complex system doesn't fit his leadership style. That's not what he has done for the last two decades.That's what makes another proposal Putin threw out in Wednesday's address especially intriguing. Putin would like to enshrine in the constitution a clear role for the State Council, a body that now has only an advisory capacity. Putin created the council soon after taking power in 2000, and it includes the regional governors, the speakers of both houses of parliament and parliamentary party leaders. Today, the president is chairman of the council. But that won't necessarily be the case after the proposed reform; Putin may opt to head the council after giving up the presidency, which would make his post-2024 role a lot like that of Kazakhstan's first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who gave up his old post last year to serve as head of the country's newly empowered Security Council.Putin's constitutional reform proposals are so far-reaching and, in some key aspects, so vaguely formulated that a lot of questions remain unanswered. Putin proposed adopting the reform by popular vote, but it's unclear how such a vote could be structured (perhaps Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's constitutional referendum of 2017 can serve as a model). Establishing the primacy of Russian laws over international treaties appears to require the adoption of an entirely new constitution, since it reconsiders one of the current document's basic tenets. The powers and composition of the State Council are also unclear, as is the extent to which the parliament's powers are to be expanded; for example, whether it will be able to fire ministers, not just appoint them.There's a reason, however, for Putin to put out all the ideas now. The Russian establishment has been getting worried about the direction of the transition and about Putin's intentions. Now, it should be clear to everyone that he's about to seek a role that's different from the presidency, a position above the fray. It's not in Putin's interest to announce exactly which one, but it's important for him to signal that he's in charge of working out the final shape of things — and that he intends to stick around after 2024 in some capacity. Otherwise he'd let his successor come up with any constitutional changes that might be necessary.The Russian opposition, of course, has read the signals, too. "The main outcome of Putin's address: How dumb and/or crooked are all those who said Putin would leave in 2024," tweeted Alexey Navalny, Putin's best-known political opponent.Indeed, whatever the formal shape of the political system Putin intends to create at the end of his presidency, Russia's real constitution is in Putin's head. That's where the missing details will come from, too.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Germany Plans Aid for Struggling Auto Industry, Government Says Posted: 15 Jan 2020 07:28 AM PST ![Germany Plans Aid for Struggling Auto Industry, Government Says]( "Germany Plans Aid for Struggling Auto Industry, Government Says") (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel's government is preparing measures to aid workers in Germany's struggling auto sector, according to the labor ministry.Labor Minister Hubertus Heil plans to introduce wage subsidies for car producers and their suppliers to prevent possible job losses if the downturn in the sector continues, his ministry said in response to questions from Bloomberg News. A similar mechanism was used successfully during the financial crisis of 2008 to prevent mass layoffs.The government is hosting talks with labor union and company representatives on Wednesday to discuss the plans, which would still require parliamentary approval. The meeting is not expected to produce a final decision, as the government itself can't agree on the timing. While the Social Democrat Heil is pushing for a swift implementation, Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic party wants the Bundestag, the lower house in parliament, to have the final say on a time line.Carmakers in Europe's largest economy had a turbulent 2019 as an economic slowdown coincided with a transition to electric and self-driving cars. Additionally, concerns about higher tariffs caused by the U.S.-China trade war stoked fears of a deteriorating environment for the industry. PSA Group's German car-making division Opel said on Tuesday that it will cut up to 4,100 jobs, joining rivals around the globe in retrenching amid a sales slowdown and technological disruption."The car sector is undergoing a difficult transition phase and needs more flexibility to respond to a slowdown," SPD deputy leader in the Bundestag, Carsten Schneider, told reporters Wednesday in Berlin.Wage subsidies allow companies to keep employees on their payroll during a downturn, but under current legislation are only allowed if the labor market as a whole is in trouble. Heil wants to introduce subsidies for specific sectors in trouble, such as the car industry.Under his proposal the government would pay social security contributions if a worker cuts back their working hours to take on vocational training.For January, the labor ministry expects 113,500 workers on a reduced workload program. During the financial crisis, the number peaked at 1.4 million in 2009.(Adds detail, context from sixth paragraph)To contact the reporter on this story: Birgit Jennen in Berlin at bjennen1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Raymond Colitt, Andrew BlackmanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iran's Rouhani dismisses UK PM's idea for 'Trump deal' Posted: 15 Jan 2020 07:18 AM PST  Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday dismissed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's idea to replace the Iran nuclear deal with one backed by the United States. Johnson on Tuesday emphasised the British government's commitment to the landmark 2015 deal that has been hanging by a thread since US President Donald Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the hard-won multilateral agreement.
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| The Dangers of Sanitizing Deng Xiaoping Posted: 15 Jan 2020 07:18 AM PST  Deng Xiaoping is to Xi Jinping what an illiberal figure like Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to Syria's Bashar al-Assad: two shades of the same color, both authoritarian.
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