| Corbyn Gears Up for Election as Chaotic Brexit Fears Escalate Posted: 18 Aug 2019 03:18 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will promise to do "everything necessary" to prevent a no-deal Brexit as Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepares to take his threat to let Britain crash out of the EU to the heart of Europe.The Labour Party leader in a speech on Monday will renew his pledge to hold a second Brexit referendum if a general election is called this year "with credible options for both sides, including the option to remain" in the European Union.Corbyn will hold out the prospect of a "once-in-a-generation chance to change direction" under Labour two days before Johnson is to due to visit Berlin and Paris on his first foreign trip since becoming Conservative Party leader in July.Johnson will tell Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France that the EU must offer an acceptable new deal or face Britain leaving on Oct. 31 without one, saying the British Parliament "will not, and cannot, cancel the referendum."Brexit AftershocksThe prime minister's warning comes amid reports that the government is preparing for a three-month "meltdown" at British ports, a hard Irish border and shortages of food and medicine. These represent the "most likely aftershocks" of a no-deal Brexit, according to the Sunday Times, which cited leaked government documents.Johnson has accused Remain-supporting former ministers, including ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, for leaking the secret dossier known as Operation Yellowhammer, according to the Times.Corbyn this month urged lawmakers opposed to a no-deal Brexit to let him head a caretaker government. But the proposal failed to win the support of pro-EU Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, who are queasy at the prospect of a hard-line socialist taking the top job.Corbyn has said he will force a vote of no confidence on Johnson, who has a majority of just one in Parliament, and there are signs that the prime minister is preparing the groundwork for a general election with promises of extra billions for the National Health Service and crime-fighting.On Monday, Johnson will visit a hospital in southwest England to announce urgent action to boost the number of children and young people receiving vaccinations following a rise in cases of measles.In his speech, Corbyn will say the problems facing the U.K. run deeper than Brexit, according to his office."The Tories have lurched to the hard right under Boris Johnson, Britain's Trump, the fake populist and phony outsider, funded by the hedge funds and bankers, committed to protecting the vested interests of the richest and the elites, while posing as anti-establishment," according to excerpts of the speech provided by his office."Labour believes the decision on how to resolve the Brexit crisis must go back to the people,' 'he will add.Britain is heading for a no-deal Brexit as fears are mounting for the global economy amid the escalating trade clash between the U.S. and China.The pound this month fell to its lowest levels since the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit vote and the U.K. economy shrank for the first time in more than six years between April and June. Johnson is under growing pressure to recall Parliament from its summer recess to discuss the Brexit crisis.No RenegotiationThe EU has ruled out renegotiating the thrice-rejected deal it struck with his predecessor, Theresa May. The agreement stalled in Parliament over how to keep the Irish border open, with the EU insisting on a "backstop" that would tie Britain closely to the bloc.The standoff leaves opponents of a no-deal Brexit just weeks to find a way to stop Britain crashing out of the bloc, an event that business leaders and many economists say would trigger economic chaos.Johnson will meet world leaders at the Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, starting Saturday. His talks with Merkel and Macron, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, are expected to focus on foreign policy and security as well as the global economy and trade.To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Atkinson in London at a.atkinson@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Steve GeimannFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iceland commemorates first glacier lost to climate change Posted: 18 Aug 2019 01:10 PM PDT  Iceland on Sunday honoured the passing of Okjokull, its first glacier lost to climate change, as scientists warn that some 400 others on the subarctic island risk the same fate. As the world recently marked the warmest July ever on record, a bronze plaque was mounted on a bare rock in a ceremony on the former glacier in western Iceland, attended by local researchers and their peers at Rice University in the United States who initiated the project. Iceland's Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson also attended the event, as well as hundreds of scientists, journalists and members of the public who trekked to the site.
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| Who Will Rule the Twenty-First Century? Posted: 18 Aug 2019 12:14 PM PDT  For ten years now, I have had the privilege of teaching outstanding students at Johns Hopkins University, Syracuse University, and the University of Denver a course called "Who Will Rule the 21st Century?" It is a course about almost everything of geostrategic note: China's rise, Russia's return, democracy's spread, authoritarianism's resurgence, many challenges but many enduring strengths of America and NATO, warming climates and rising oceans, proliferating weapons of mass destruction, new technologies including artificial intelligence, and the planet's likely push towards ten billion humans by mid-century. Most of those human beings are in the developing world and most of them live in cities. Additionally, as my Brookings Institution colleague, Homi Kharas, underscores, a larger fraction of those humans living middle-class lives or better than at any time in history. We start the course by reading Paul Kennedy's 1987 classic, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, as a retrospective on previous eras. We then read big-idea authors dealing with today's world—Robert Kagan, John Ikenberry, Fareed Zakaria, Charlie Kupchan, Tim Snyder, Tom Wright, Bruce Jones, the late Zbigniew Brzezinski, Henry Kissinger—and do "deep dives" on subjects like China and climate. The students are mostly American, and mostly thirty-ish (many already holding full-time jobs) in age, but they come from all walks of life and many countries.At the end of each semester—right now, for Syracuse's summer program—we then attempt to answer the question of who will most likely rule this century. The "ruler" could be a country, an alliance, a coalition of countries, a big idea like democracy or authoritarianism, a big tragedy like nuclear war or climate catastrophe, or a set of technological and economic trends (for better or for worse). Our plan is to get together in 2050 (if I can hold out that long) for an interim assessment of who has been right to date and who has been wrong!The reason I am describing this course in the form of an op-ed is this: in 2019, my students collectively displayed a pessimism about the future of the United States, and the world, that no previous class had exhibited—with the exception of the 2016 groups at Syracuse and Denver. I believe there is an important message in my students' collective worries that both political parties in the United States should hear.To be fair, only about half of my recent Syracuse students are truly pessimistic. The others, at least from an American perspective, still hold out considerable hope. Answering the question of who would rule the century, in terms of setting its main security and strategic conditions and parameters, about one-third of the group said the United States. Another couple favored democracy or some variant on that concept. But I was struck that even these optimists were guarded in their enthusiasm—often appreciating how many problems China still faces, and how disunified the European Union countries really are, and how poor India still is today despite all the progress, and so on—more than they were celebrating any great American renewal.And then there was the other half of the group. Two students argued that that illiberalism and authoritarianism would likely overtake the forces of democracy as the century unfolds. Two of my other students thought technology would rule—with the potential for good, but also the potential for horribly bad things like desecration of the planet or nuclear war. Two more expected conflict to dominate the news—much as it ultimately did in the first half or so of the twentieth century, even after the heady days of the century's first decade or so. Two more thought that companies and other supranational or nongovernmental organizations would rule. But they saw this as just as likely to be a bad thing as a good one. One student predicted that the African Union would rule once the major developed economies had decimated each other through war and other tragedies and, in effect, left Africa as the last continent still standing.Perhaps this year's group of Syracuse students just included an unusually ornery and fatalistic lot. I am joking. In fact, I found them as smart and thoughtful as any previous group. That gives me pause; I didn't like their collective net assessment, and wish I were able to dismiss it more confidently.Speaking of previous groups, they trended towards optimism almost every time—expecting that the United States, or NATO, or the general tide of democracy (including in places like India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Latin America), or the "liberal global order" would be the predominant force of the century. Typically, two-thirds to three-fourths of my students could be "coded" as optimists of some sort. They offered such prognostications even as the great recession left us in horrible economic straits in the early years of my course, even as Washington remained highly acrimonious throughout the Obama years, even when the Arab Spring turned to winter, even when Putin seized Crimea and ISIS seized large chunks of Iraq and Syria, even when Ebola took hold in West Africa in 2014. My students, rightly or wrongly, were able to convince themselves that America's and the West's strengths, and those of other emerging forward-looking power—as well as broader positive forces shaping human history—were more consequential than the crises of the day. All that changed for a while in 2016. I taught the course at both Syracuse University and the University of Denver that year. Both courses concluded before election day, so most students probably expected Hillary to win. Although this observation is not meant as a direct attack on President Donald Trump, it is, however, a referendum of sorts on candidates Trump, Clinton, Sanders, and others. The partisanship and personal invective that characterized that year's political campaigns, along with problems inside America that the political discourse revealed, seemed to make students wonder for the first time if America's internal cohesion was up to the job of keeping us great in the twenty-first century. And even the non-American students wondered who could lead a stable and prosperous world if the United States would not.Things got a bit better in 2017 and 2018; optimism returned a bit in my classes. Perhaps it was because we were collectively learning we might just, despite it all, survive the Trump presidency. Perhaps his supporters in my class were hoping he was growing into the job, while his detractors were looking forward to midterm elections as a chance to right the tables of American politics a bit. Probably the strong economy contributed a little bit to the hopefulness as well.But this year, we fell back. I am still struggling to figure out the answer. The poor state of great-power relations, which has now lasted more than half a decade, could explain a good deal of it. However, I think the more likely principal cause is that American politics seem headed for something that will feel like 2016 all over again. Negativity is paramount. Big, hopeful, and yet realistic ideas of the type a Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, or Ronald Reagan—or even a Bill Clinton, John McCain, or Barack Obama—brought to the table are few and far between. The humid Washington air through which we came to class each evening may have reminded us that the "swamp" remains pervasive. There is still time to change this—and I look forward to what my class of 2020 will have to say on the matter. But for now, I have concluded that today's political and policy environment has my students more worried about the fate of the country, and the Earth, than they have been at any previous time over the past ten years. I hope our political leaders and aspirants hear them.Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings and adjunct professor at several universities, is the author most recently of The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War over Small Stakes.Image: Reuters
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| Saudi Arabia’s Hyper-Nationalism Is Here To Stay Posted: 18 Aug 2019 12:13 PM PDT  As Saudi Arabia adjusts its social contract to lean away from religion and towards nationalism, it is siphoning power away from the religious extremists who have long dogged its reputation and security. But in so doing, it is also giving power to a new brand of Saudi radical: the hyper-nationalist. And while the Saudi hyper-nationalist trend does not seek the same kind of violent, global caliphate as previous Saudi extremists like Osama bin Laden, they nevertheless pose a real risk not just to the reputation of the Kingdom, but to its more independently-minded Gulf Arab neighbors, and aspects of its critical relationships with the West. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his hyper-nationalist deputies, Saud al-Qahtani and his agents in the Center for Studies and Media Affairs, are carrying out a far-ranging campaign against activists, academics, influencers and public personalities to rapidly transform Saudi Arabia's social contract from religion-cum-tribalism to modern nationalism. The imperatives driving this transformation are multiple. At its core, the Saudi social contract is years out of date. The religious establishment's long-standing loyalty, especially after the Siege of Mecca in 1979, helped glue Saudi society to the monarchy. But Saudi religiosity is changing, undermining the political potency of the clerics who once could reliably rally followers to the flag. The Kingdom's cradle-to-grave welfare system is increasingly unaffordable; whereas once Riyadh could dump dollops of cash onto unruly citizens and regions to purchase loyalty, now the state must find means to turn its citizens into productive workers thriving in their currently moribund private sector. With the religious and economic planks weakened, Riyadh has sought to use nationalism as a salve to patch the strained relationship between rulers and ruled.It is a remarkable pivot. Saudi nationalism is a relatively new concept: not until 2005 did King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein officially recognized a National Day for the Kingdom, and only in recent years has the holiday begun to gain steam in the public sphere. Saudi kings typically saw nationalism as a dangerous flirtation with the anti-monarchical, pan-Arab nationalism espoused by Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser, and therefore sought to limit its growth. Now the Kingdom is embracing the concept with gusto to shore up its social contract.On the edges of this growing nationalist movement are the hyper-nationalists—mostly men, often young, who patrol social media, sometimes in foreign languages like English. They help shape the narrative of the Kingdom's reputation and establish new red lines that Riyadh must consider when crafting policy. In 2018 alone, they helped stoke Canadian-Saudi tensions; cheered on the detention of women's rights activists; extolled mass executions of political dissidents; justified the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, while taking on the mantle of maintaining public order once held by the religious police. As the taboos of the old religious establishment fade away, the hyper-nationalists are moving to command public opinion. Sometimes, the hyper-nationalists are useful tools for the state to enforce policy, shape public sentiment, and adjust the social contract. As nationalism gains credence, the religious establishment's disquiet with social reform will increasingly become irrelevant—an important evolution in the state's character, as many social reforms, like allowing women to travel and work freely, are also economic in nature. It will also help isolate the religious extremists within Saudi Arabia; although jihadi ideology has been given a stinging propaganda defeat with the destruction of the territorial version of the Islamic State, young Saudis, particularly in hinterland provinces being overlooked by the Kingdom's tumultuous reforms, nevertheless find solace in the appeals of extremist preachers. There may be military benefits as well: typically casualty-averse, more nationalist military ranks may increase their tolerance for risky operations and national sacrifice, traits that Riyadh has chased for decades with little success. That will allow Saudi Arabia to be more confrontational with its regional rival, Iran, and mitigate some of the war weariness cropping up from its intervention in Yemen.Other times, the hyper-nationalists have proven to be reputational and policy risks for a Riyadh trying to court foreign investment and maintain strategic alliances. Al-Qahtani is widely blamed for the botched Khashoggi operation, an issue that has soured relations between Saudi Arabia and America's Congress. Saudi Arabia's hyper-nationalists also helped drive the Canadian-Saudi diplomatic spat of August 2018 which has interrupted the long-standing relationship between Canada and Saudi students, and which threatened to derail business relations between the two countries. The hyper-nationalists have also raised tensions with Iran: in an editorial in state-backed Arab News in May 2019 (which is part of Saudi Arabia's Saudi Research and Publishing Company that is a key vehicle in pushing the nationalist narrative), the editorial board argued for punitive military strikes against Iran in retaliation for the tanker attackers in the Gulf of Oman and attacks by the Houthis on Saudi oil infrastructure.Moreover, the ever-evolving concept of national dignity will produce new diplomatic challenges for both Riyadh and its allies. While Saudi Arabia has never welcomed foreign opinion on its domestic affairs, it has, in the past, been able to ignore popular opinion in the name of state security, as it did when it invited in Allied troops to defend the Kingdom from Iraq after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and, more recently, as it reaches out to Israel for a common front against Iran.Moreover, Saudi nationalists have shown less tolerance for the regional deviation of nearby Gulf Arab states. Qatar has taken the brunt of these attacks, and the blockade has become infused with a nationalist spirit that will be hard to turn down should Riyadh ever find resolution with Doha. In the future, Oman and Kuwait may also face the strengthened ire of these nationalists. Oman's Sultan Qaboos has been independent enough, especially with Iran and Qatar, to face pressure from Riyadh. Qaboos helped scuttle a Saudi attempt to strengthen the regional Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into a Gulf Union in 2013, something that upset Saudi Arabia's strategy of turning the GCC into a more unified front against Iran. In addition, Oman has never joined the Qatar boycott, and Muscat has felt exposed enough to Saudi criticism to take stridently pro-U.S. measures, like inviting Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Muscat in November 2018, to reassure its alliance with the Americans. (It also opened up a military base with Britain, the first since decolonization in 1970). Finally, Kuwait's long-standing territorial dispute in its oil-rich borders with Saudi Arabia also will increasingly take on nationalist tinges not present before.Perhaps most of all, Saudi Arabia's new nationalism will infuse it with the political backing it needs to resist foreign influence to change its behavior. As Western allies grow concerned about Saudi Arabia's human-rights record and conduct in Yemen, pressure from allies to change Saudi Arabia's behavior will butt up against nationalist demands for the monarchy to maintain the Kingdom's sovereignty. This will be a marked change from the heady days of George W. Bush and King Abdullah, when Bush helped pressure the king to hold municipal elections as part of his regional Freedom Agenda. Even close allies of the Kingdom may find that the more nationalism gains stature in Saudi Arabia, the more closed the minds of its officials become.Ryan Bohl is a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Stratfor. He holds a BA in history and an MAEd from Arizona State University, where he studied Middle Eastern history and education, and St. Catherine's College at the University of Cambridge. He lived and taught in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar from 2009-14. Image: Reuters
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| Kuwait says emir recovered from 'setback' Posted: 18 Aug 2019 11:06 AM PDT  Kuwaiti state media on Sunday reported Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah had "recovered", shortly after Iran's foreign minister indicated that the 90-year-old was unwell. The emir "has recovered from a setback and is in good health now", Kuwait's official news agency KUNA said, citing a palace statement, without specifying the nature of the "setback". Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had earlier on Sunday wished Sheikh Sabah a "speedy recovery" after talking with the Gulf state's officials.
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| How the U.S. Navy Sank Imperial Japan's Last Monster-Sized Aircraft Carrier Posted: 18 Aug 2019 11:00 AM PDT  The Japanese force zigged and zagged to throw off any undersea pursuers. And then came that bit of luck that often tips every battle. The Japanese ships zigged one more time, straight into the path of the Archerfish. The sub took its chance. At 3:15 am on November 29, it fired six torpedoes. Four hit.If weight alone could determine victory, then the Imperial Japanese Navy aircraft carrier Shinano might still be afloat.At 69,000 tons when launched in 1944, the Shinano would have remained the world's largest aircraft until the 1960s. But that was not to be. Instead the Shinano earned a distinction of a different kind: the title of largest warship ever sunk by a submarine.And the submarine that accomplished—the 1,500-ton USS Archerfish—was one-forty-sixth the size of its victim.The story begins in May 1940, when the Shinano was laid down as the third of Japan's legendary Yamato-class battleships. These giants were the largest battleships in history, built as part of Japan's desperate attempt to counter U.S. naval quantity with a few—hopefully—qualitatively superior warships. If all went according to plan, the Shinano would join her sisters Yamato and Musashi as the three queens of Second World War battlewagons.RECOMMENDED: North Korea Has 200,000 Soldiers in Its Special Forces Yet by 1942, Japan began to realize that it needed aircraft carriers more than battleships. Naval warfare was now ruled by these floating airfields, and Japan had lost its four best at the Battle of Midway. The orders came down to convert Shinano into an aircraft carrier such as the world had never seen.At 69,000 tons, it was the double the tonnage of the Essex-class carriers that won the Pacific War for America, and would remain the largest until the advent of nuclear-powered carriers in the early 1960s. Its main deck, already sheathed in armor up to 7.5 inches thick, became the hangar deck where aircraft were serviced. On top was the flight deck to launch and recover planes, itself protected by 3.75 inches of armor.RECOMMENDED: How America Would Wage a War Against North Korea Instead of the devastating eighteen-inch cannon of her two sisters, the Shinano's main armament was supposed to be forty-seven aircraft, rather stingy compared to the 75–100 aircraft on large U.S. and Japanese carriers. But its weaponry was still impressive: sixteen five-inch antiaircraft guns, 145 25mm antiaircraft machine guns and twelve multiple rocket launchers with 4.7-inch unguided antiaircraft rockets.The Shinano's designers learned—or thought they had learned—the lessons from the sloppy damage control that had unnecessarily doomed several Japanese carriers. Flammable paint and wood were avoided. Care was taken to protect ventilation shafts so explosive gases couldn't seep through the ship as they had with other Japanese carriers.But the Shinano's impregnability was only skin deep. "Although he was outwardly serene, Captain Mikami felt pressing concern about the ship's watertight compartments," later wrote Joseph Enright, the Archerfish's captain. "The air pressure tests that would have confirmed his hope that the compartments were watertight had been canceled in the rush to move Shinano to the Inland Sea."Sailors can be a superstitious lot, and there was a bad omen when the ship was launched on October 8, 1944 from Yokusuka naval base. A drydock gate buckled, allowing a surge of water to smash the ship against the drydock wall three times. After repairs, it took to sea on November 28, the carrier took to sea with its three-destroyer escort, headed toward the Kure naval base. It carried some suicide boats and kamikaze flying bombs, but no aircraft to fly antisubmarine patrols through Japanese home waters, which were teeming with U.S. submarines.Unfortunately, the Shinano ran into the Archerfish that night, cruising on the surface and on the prowl. The sub was on its fifth war patrol, but it had yet to sink an enemy vessel. Captain Enright decided he needed to sail to a point ahead of his target, submerge so the destroyers wouldn't spot him and fire his torpedoes. That wasn't an easy prospect in World War II, when surface ships could steam faster than submarines.The Archerfish paralleled the Japanese task force. It also turned on its radar to track them, which was detected by receivers on the Shinano. The Japanese captain worried about a massed attack by an American sub wolfpack, but he didn't worry that much. Hadn't the Shinano's sister ship Musashi endured ten torpedo hits and sixteen bombs before succumbing at the Battle of the Philippine Sea? Despite the numerous U.S. subs infesting Japanese home waters, the carrier's watertight doors were opened to allow the crew access to the machinery.The Japanese force zigged and zagged to throw off any undersea pursuers. And then came that bit of luck that often tips every battle. The Japanese ships zigged one more time, straight into the path of the Archerfish. The sub took its chance. At 3:15 am on November 29, it fired six torpedoes. Four hit.Still, the Shinano's crew wasn't unduly worried. The ship was designed to absorb such damage, and in fact continued to try to sail at maximum speed. But water flooded through the holes in the ship's side, flowing into unsecured spaces and through what should have been watertight doors. Pumps and generators failed. Soon the carrier acquired a list to starboard that only got worse.The Shinano's escorting destroyers attempted to tow it, but to no avail. At 10:18 am, seven hours after the attack, the order was given to abandon ship. At 10:57 am the ship sank, along with 1,435 of its crew, including the captain.A postwar U.S. Navy analysis suggested the Yamato-class ships, including Shinano, suffered from design flaws. The joints between the main armored belt and the armored bulkheads below were vulnerable to leakage, and the Archerfish's torpedoes hit that joint. Some bulkheads were also prone to rupture. Then again, the Shinano was hardly the lone victim of subs. The United States lost the carrier Wasp to Japanese torpedo attack, and several British carriers fell victim to German U-boats.Perhaps there was also bad luck. Bad luck into running into the Archerfish, bad luck in zig-zagging straight into the path of a salvo of torpedoes, bad luck that the torpedoes hit a vulnerable spot.In the end, the Shinano would make history—and then sink into the cold, deep waters of the Pacific.Michael Peck is a contributing writer for the National Interest. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.For further reading: Shinano: The Sinking of Japan's Secret Supership by Joseph Enright and James Ryan.
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| Images show Iran satellite launch looms despite US criticism Posted: 18 Aug 2019 10:57 AM PDT  Iran appears to be preparing another satellite launch after twice failing this year to put one in orbit, despite U.S. accusations that the Islamic Republic's program helps it develop ballistic missiles. Satellite images of the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran's Semnan province this month show increased activity at the site, as heightened tensions persist between Washington and Tehran over its collapsing nuclear deal with world powers. While Iran routinely only announces such launches after the fact, that activity coupled with an official saying a satellite would soon be handed over to the country's Defense Ministry suggests the attempt will be coming soon.
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| O’Rourke: El Paso shooting makes clear the ‘real consequence’ of Trump racism Posted: 18 Aug 2019 10:44 AM PDT  Democratic presidential candidate says suspect who killed 22 people earlier this month was inspired by Trump's rhetoricDemocratic presidential candidate Beto ORourke speaks to media and supporters during a campaign re-launch on 15 August in El Paso, Texas. Photograph: Sandy Huffaker/Getty ImagesThe deaths of 22 people in the El Paso shooting earlier this month made clear "the real consequence and cost of Donald Trump", Democratic presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke said on Sunday."From the outset of this campaign," the Texan told NBC's Meet the Press, "even before this campaign, I talked about how dangerous President Trump's open racism is".The former congressman cited remarks about Mexicans and Muslims and the burning of a mosque in Victoria, Texas "the day after he signs his executive order attempting to ban Muslim travel".But he added: "It wasn't until someone, inspired by Donald Trump, drove more than 600 miles, to my hometown, and killed 22 people in my community with a weapon of war, an AK-47, that he had no business owning, that no American should own, unless they are on a battlefield, engaged with the enemy."It wasn't until that moment that I truly understood how critical this moment is and the real consequence and cost of Donald Trump."The mosque in Victoria burned down on 28 January 2017, the day after Trump signed an executive order which sought to temporarily bar from the US people from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Libya and Somalia and to suspend or limit refugee admissions.The culprit in the fire was convicted in July 2018 and sentenced to 24 years in prison.The suspect in the shooting at an El Paso Walmart has been linked to a "manifesto" in which Trump policies were cited. He surrendered to police, who have said he has confessed to wanting to kill Mexicans.O'Rourke is off the pace in the Democratic field, sixth in the realclearpolitics.com national polling average. But his campaigning has gained new urgency and his attacks on Trump new vigour since the shooting in the city he represented in the US House from 2013 to the start of this year.This week, O'Rourke rejected suggestions he should drop out and run again for the Senate, having pushed the Republican Ted Cruz in 2018.O'Rourke told NBC he had seen danger inherent to Trump's policies and behaviour again "yesterday, in Mississippi, in Canton, in a community where nearly 700 people working in chicken processing plants, one of the toughest jobs in America, were raided, detained, taken from their kids, humiliated, hogtied, for the crime of being in this country, doing a job that no one else will do".Raids on Mississippi food processing plants by US Immigrations and Customs Enforcement, or Ice, caused national outcry this month. The operation against undocumented migrants was carried out just after the El Paso shooting and a controversial visit to the Texas city by Trump himself.Setting off for that visit, Trump told reporters those criticising him in connection with shootings "are political people. They're trying to make points. In many cases they're running for president, and they're very low in the polls. A couple of them in particular, very low in the polls."On NBC on Sunday, O'Rourke said: "There is a concerted, organised attack against immigrants, against people of colour, against those who do not look like or pray like or love like the majority in this country."And this moment will define us one way or another. And if we do not wake up to it, I am convinced that we'll lose America, this country, in our sleep. And we cannot allow that to happen."
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| Iranian tanker sets sail from Gibraltar after US detention request rejected Posted: 18 Aug 2019 09:16 AM PDT  The Iranian tanker caught in a standoff between Tehran and the West left Gibraltar on Sunday night, shipping data showed, hours after the British territory rejected a US request to detain the vessel further. British Royal Marines seized the tanker in Gibraltar in July on suspicion it was carrying oil to Syria, a close ally of Iran, in violation of European Union sanctions. That triggered a series of events that have heightened tensions on international oil shipping routes through the Gulf, including the seizure of the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero, which remains held by the Islamic Republic. Analysts had said the Iranian ship's release by Gibraltar could see the Stena Impero go free. The Grace 1, renamed the Adrian Darya 1, left anchorage off Gibraltar around 11pm, Refinitiv shipping data showed. Its destination was not immediately clear. A member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards onboard a tanker Stena Impero as it's anchored off the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas Credit: AFP Iran's ambassador to Britain, Hamid Baeidinejad, had written on Twitter earlier that the vessel was expected to leave on Sunday night, adding that two engineering teams had been flown to Gibraltar. The tanker's detention ended last week, but a federal court in Washington on Friday issued a warrant for the seizure of the tanker, the oil it carries and nearly $1 million. Gibraltar said on Sunday it could not comply with that request because it was bound by EU law. "The EU sanctions regime against Iran – which is applicable in Gibraltar - is much narrower than that applicable in the US," the government said in a statement. "The Gibraltar Central Authority is unable to seek an Order of the Supreme Court of Gibraltar to provide the restraining assistance required by the United States of America." Washington had attempted to detain the Grace 1 on the grounds that it had links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which it has designated a terrorist organisation. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that "Iran would like to talk," attributing the willingness to economic conditions in the country, when asked on Sunday by reporters about the status of the tanker. "Iran would like to talk but they just don't know how to get there. They are very proud people. But their economy is crashing, crashing. "Inflation is through the roof. Their economy is doing really badly, they are not selling oil. We put the sanctions on, the oil is selling much less, much less than we thought. It's like a trickle. "They very much want to make a deal, they just don't know how to make a call, because they are proud people and I understand that. "But I have a feeling that things with Iran could work out, or maybe not." Iran has denied the tanker was ever headed to Syria. Tehran said it was ready to dispatch its naval fleet to escort the tanker if required. "The era of hit and run is over ... if top authorities ask the navy, we are ready to escort out tanker Adrian," Iran's navy commander, Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, was quoted as saying by Mehr news agency. Earlier on Sunday, video and photographs showed the tanker flying the red, green and white flag of Iran and bearing its new name, painted in white, on the hull. Its previous name, 'Grace 1', had been painted over. Rising tensions between UK, US and Iran The initial impounding of the Grace 1 sparked a diplomatic row that escalated when Tehran seize a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf two weeks later. That tanker, the Stena Impero, is still detained. The two vessels have since become pawns in a bigger game, feeding into wider hostilities since the United States last year pulled out of an international agreement to curb Iran's nuclear programme, and reimposed economic sanctions. Iran has denounced US efforts to set up an international maritime security coalition in the Gulf and insisted regional countries could protect the strategic waterway and work towards signing a non-aggression pact. On a trip to Kuwait on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet that "Iran's proposal for Regional Dialogue Forum and non-aggression pact trumps reliance on extraneous actors". The Grace 1 had originally flown the Panamanian flag but Panama's Maritime Authority said in July that the vessel had been de-listed after an alert that indicated the ship had participated in or was linked to terrorism financing.
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| Zumwalt: The Stealth Destroyer That Could Become the Ultimate Killer Posted: 18 Aug 2019 09:00 AM PDT  Also, the launchers are especially designed with software such that it can accommodate a wide range of weapons; the launchers can house one SM-2, SM-3 or SM-6, ASROCs and up to four ESSMs due to the missile's smaller diameter, Raytheon developers explain.Navy developers of the new high-tech, stealthy USS Zumwalt destroyer are widening the mission envelope for the ship, exploring new ammunition for its guns and preparing to fire its first missiles next year.The US Navy's stealthy destroyer will fire an Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile and SM-2 in 2019 from its Mk 57 Vertical Launch Systems, marking the first time the new ship will fire weapons as part of its ongoing combat activation process.The Navy is exploring a new range of weapons for its stealthy USS Zumwalt destroyer to better prepare the ship for future warfare against technically advanced enemies.Recommended: North Korea's Most Lethal Weapon Isn't Nukes. Recommended: 5 Worst Guns Ever Made.Recommended: The World's Most Secretive Nuclear Weapons Program."The Navy is in the process of updating required documents to support new surface strike requirements," according to Navy statements briefed at the service's Sea Air and Space Annual Symposium by Zumwalt program manager Capt. Kevin Smith.(This first appeared several years ago.)The new ship, engineered with a sleek, radar-evading design, was initially conceived of in terms of primarily engineering a shallow-water land attack platform. While the ship was envisioned as a multi-mission platform at its inception, current emerging threats and new technology have led Navy strategists to scope a wider strategic view for the ship.In particular, given the rapid evolution of targeting technology and advanced long-range precision weaponry, particularly those being developed by near-peer adversaries, the strategic calculus informing maritime warfare is changing quickly.Long-range strike technology, coupled with advanced seekers, electromagnetic weapons and higher-resolution sensors, quite naturally, create the need for greater stand-off ranges; such a technical phenomenon is a key element of the Navy's current "distributed lethality" strategy designed to better prepare the Navy for modern, open blue-water combat operations against a technologically advanced adversary.Part of the initial vision for this ship, which is still very much part of its equation, is to engineer a ship able to detect mines. For this reason, the ship has been architected with a shallow draft, enabling it to operate closer to shore than most deep water surface ships.At the same time, threat assessment experts, strategists and Navy weapons developers also heavily emphasize the growing need for the ship to succeed in the event of major nation-state force-on-force maritime warfare.In preparation for all of this, the ship is now going through combat activation in San Diego, Calif., to pave the way toward preparing the weapons systems for the ship's planned move to operational status in 2020, Navy officials say.This process will also carefully refine many of the ship's other technologies, such as its advanced Integrated Power System and Total Ship Computing Environment, multi-function, volume-search SPY-3 radar and sonar systems.The activation process for USS Zumwalt development includes many technology assessments, such as calm and heavy weather examinations to further verify the ship's stability.Many of the weapons systems are being assessed and refined on board a specially configured unmanned test ship. The remote- controlled vessel continues to be involved in integration testing with the SM-2 and other weapons.The USS Zumwalt is built with a high-tech, long-range, BAE-built Advanced Gun System designed to find and hit targets with precision from much farther ranges than existing deck-mounted ship guns.Most deck mounted 5-inch guns currently on Navy ships are limited to firing roughly 8-to-10 miles at targets within the horizon or what's called line of sight. The Advanced Gun System, however, is being developed to fire rounds beyond-the-horizon at targets more than three times that distance.The Navy had been planning to have the gun fire a Long-Range Land Attack Projectile, but is now exploring different ammunition options for, among other things, cost issues, Navy leaders said.The Navy is also currently evaluating potential SM-6 integration for the USS Zumwalt. The SM-6 has been a fast-evolving weapon for the Navy – as it has expanded its mission envelope to include air-defense, ballistic missile defense and even offensive use as an anti-ship surface attack weapon.In addition, utilizing its active seeker, the SM-6 is a key part of Naval Integrated Fire Control – Counter Air, or NIFC-CA; NIFC-CA uses fire-control technology to link Aegis radar with an airborne relay sensor to detect and destroy approaching enemy threats from beyond the horizon.With an active, dual-mode seeker able to send an electromagnetic "ping" forward from the missile itself, the SM-6 is able to better adjust to moving targets, according to Raytheon developers.Giving commanders more decision-making time to effectively utilize layered ship defenses when under attack is an integral part of the rationale for NIFC-CA.The ship also fires Vertical Launch Anti-Submarine Rockets, or ASROCs. ASROCs are 16-feet long with a 14-inch diameter; a rocket delivers the torpedo at very high speeds to a specific point in the water at which point it turns on its sensors and searches for an enemy submarine. Wade Knudson, DDG 1000 program manager, Raytheon, has told Warrior in recent years through the course of several interviews.The ship is also built with Mk 57 a vertical launch tubes which are engineered into the hull near the perimeter of the ship.Called Peripheral Vertical Launch System, the tubes are integrated with the hull around the ship's periphery in order to ensure that weapons can keep firing in the event of damage. Instead of having all of the launch tubes in succession or near one another, the DDG 1000 has spread them out in order to mitigate risk in the event of attack, developers said.In total, there are 80 launch tubes built into the hull of the DDG 1000; the Peripheral Vertical Launch System involves a collaborative effort between Raytheon and BAE Systems.Also, the launchers are especially designed with software such that it can accommodate a wide range of weapons; the launchers can house one SM-2, SM-3 or SM-6, ASROCs and up to four ESSMs due to the missile's smaller diameter, Raytheon developers explain.In 2016, the new ship was formally delivered to the Navy at Bath Iron Works in Portland, Maine. The ship was formally commissioned in October of that year.This first appeared in Warrior Maven here.
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| UK's Johnson to visit European capitals seeking Brexit breakthrough Posted: 18 Aug 2019 08:23 AM PDT  Boris Johnson will visit European capitals this week on his first overseas trip as British leader, as his government said Sunday it had ordered the repeal of the decades-old law enforcing EU membership. Johnson's Downing Street office confirmed he will travel to Berlin on Wednesday for talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and on to Paris Thursday for discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, amid growing fears of a no-deal Brexit in two-and-a- half months.
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| North Korea vs. America's B-2 Stealth Bomber, F-22 and F-35 Fighters (Who Dies?) Posted: 18 Aug 2019 08:00 AM PDT  North Korea also has a large but nearly completely obsolete air force. The only aircraft Pyongyang possesses that might marginally threaten American airpower are its small fleet of Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrums. "They supposedly have up to 40 MiG-29s, but I'm not sure how many of them are still airworthy but some surely are," Kashin said. "Pilot training is limited and never exceeds 20 flight hours per year."If the Trump Administration chooses to intervene in North Korea, the White House may discover that Pyongyang is a more formidable adversary than many might expect.Aside from the reclusive regime's nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-un's hermit kingdom boasts air defenses that are more advanced than many might realize. Moreover, Pyongyang has also taken steps to increase its resilience against any aerial onslaught that that United States might launch in the event of war. The so-called Democratic People's Republic of Korea has not forgotten the lessons of the Korean War–which technically has not yet ended.(This first appeared last year.)"Between 1950 and 1953, the U.S. Air Force and Navy flattened North Korea, so the NORKS have had 65 years to think about how to make sure that does not happen again and dig lots of bomb proof shelters and tunnels," retired Rear Adm. Mike McDevitt, a senior fellow at the Center for Naval Analyses, told The National Interest.But aside from hardening its facilities, Pyongyang fields more advanced air defenses than one might assume. While the overwhelming majority of North Korean air defenses are older Soviet systems, Pyongyang does field some surprisingly capable indigenous weapons."They have a mix of old Soviet SAMs [surface-to-air missiles], including the S-75, S-125, S-200 and Kvadrat, which are likely in more or less good condition," Vasily Kashin, a senior fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow's Higher School of Economics told The National Interest. "They used to produce the S-75 themselves—and those could have received some significant upgrades. In addition to them, since early the 2010s they are fielding an indigenous modern SAM system which is called KN-06 by South Korea and the U.S."It is not clear how many KN-06 SAM batteries Pyongyang has built, but the North Korean weapon is a surprisingly capable system that is similar to early model versions of the Russian-built S-300. "No one knows exactly how many such systems exist," Kashin said. "The KN-06 has phased array radar and tracks via missile guidance system and maybe equivalent to the early S-300P versions but with greater range."Kashin—who is a specialist on Asian matters—said that South Koreans sources have written that the KN-06 has been successfully tested. The weapon is thought to have a range of up to 150 km. One of the reasons that the KN-06 is often ignored—even though information is available about the North Korean weapon—is that Western analysts often underestimate Pyongyang's industrial capabilities."Generally, there is a great underestimation of North Korean industrial capabilities in the world," Kashin said. "From what I know, they do produce some computerized machine tools and industrial robotics, fiber-optics, some semiconductors as well as a variety of trucks and cars, railroad rolling stock, consumer electronics etc. So they can do something comparable to Soviet designs of the 1970s to early 80s—especially when they cooperate with the Iranians."North Korean low altitude air defenses are also fairly robust—even if the systems that Pyongyang fields are dated. "At low altitudes, they have huge numbers of license produced and indigenous MANPADs [man-portable air defenses] and 23-57mm anti-aircraft artillery—many thousands of pieces," Kashin said.North Korea also has a large but nearly completely obsolete air force. The only aircraft Pyongyang possesses that might marginally threaten American airpower are its small fleet of Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrums. "They supposedly have up to 40 MiG-29s, but I'm not sure how many of them are still airworthy but some surely are," Kashin said. "Pilot training is limited and never exceeds 20 flight hours per year."However, while North Korean technology is relatively primitive—the nation's air defenses are coordinated. "They do have an old Soviet computerized anti-aircraft command and control system. Most of the radars are old, but they did receive some newer Iranian phased array radars," Kashin said. "This is what I know, the anti-aircraft units are extensively using underground shelters for cover—not easy to destroy."Thus, while generally primitive, North Korean defenses might be a tougher nut to crack than many might expect. Moreover, while their technology is old, North Korea's philosophy of self-reliance means it can produce most of its own military hardware. "They produce a lot of stuff, although in many cases the technology would lag some 20 to 40 years behind," Kashin said. "But they do produce it independently."Dave Majumdar is the former defense editor for The National Interest.
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| Jordan summons Israeli envoy over holy site clashes Posted: 18 Aug 2019 07:43 AM PDT ![Jordan summons Israeli envoy over holy site clashes]( "Jordan summons Israeli envoy over holy site clashes") Jordan has summoned Israel's ambassador to protest "Israeli violations" at a Jerusalem holy site sacred to Muslims and Jews. Jordan's Foreign Ministry said Sunday that Amman delivered a "decisive letter" to the ambassador, including a call "to immediately cease all Israeli violations and all Israeli attempts to change the historical, legal status" at the site.
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| Israeli troops kill 3 Palestinians near Gaza fence Posted: 18 Aug 2019 06:50 AM PDT  Israeli troops killed three Palestinians and severely wounded a fourth near Gaza Strip's heavily guarded perimeter fence, the Gaza Health Ministry said Sunday. The Israeli military said a helicopter and a tank fired at armed suspects near the fence overnight. After weeks of calm, Palestinian militants have attempted a number of raids in recent days.
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| Feminist icon Steinem blasts Israel PM over travel ban Posted: 18 Aug 2019 06:46 AM PDT ![Feminist icon Steinem blasts Israel PM over travel ban]( "Feminist icon Steinem blasts Israel PM over travel ban") Feminist icon Gloria Steinem has called Israel's prime minister a "bully" and says she won't visit as long as he remains the country's leader. At the urging of President Donald Trump, Israel denied entry to Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar last week over their support for the Palestinian-led boycott movement. The two are outspoken critics of Trump and of Israel's treatment of the Palestinians.
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| Airport bombed by Libya's Haftar not military: UN Posted: 18 Aug 2019 06:00 AM PDT  The United Nations mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has dismissed claims by strongman Khalifa Haftar that a government-controlled airport bombed by his forces in recent days housed military infrastructure. On Thursday and Friday Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) launched air strikes on Zuwara airport in western Libya, targeting what it said was a hangar "which houses Turkish drones and their ammunition". UNSMIL said it dispatched a delegation to Zuwara to investigate the LNA allegations.
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| Pakistan Has Lots of Nuclear Weapons: Should the World Worry? Posted: 18 Aug 2019 06:00 AM PDT  Pakistan currently has a nuclear "triad" of nuclear delivery systems based on land, in the air and at sea. Islamabad is believed to have modified American-built F-16A fighters and possibly French-made Mirage fighters to deliver nuclear bombs by 1995. Since the fighters would have to penetrate India's air defense network to deliver their payloads against cities and other targets, Pakistani aircraft would likely be deliver tactical nuclear weapons against battlefield targets.Sandwiched between Iran, China, India and Afghanistan, Pakistan lives in a complicated neighborhood with a variety of security issues. One of the nine known states known to have nuclear weapons, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and doctrine are continually evolving to match perceived threats. A nuclear power for decades, Pakistan is now attempting to construct a nuclear triad of its own, making its nuclear arsenal resilient and capable of devastating retaliatory strikes.(This first appeared several years ago.)Pakistan's nuclear program goes back to the 1950s, during the early days of its rivalry with India. President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously said in 1965, "If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own."Recommended: Air War: Stealth F-22 Raptor vs. F-14 Tomcat (That Iran Still Flies)Recommended: A New Report Reveals Why There Won't Be Any 'New' F-22 RaptorsRecommended: How an 'Old' F-15 Might Kill Russia's New Stealth FighterThe program became a higher priority after the country's 1971 defeat at the hands of India, which caused East Pakistan to break away and become Bangladesh. Experts believe the humiliating loss of territory, much more than reports that India was pursuing nuclear weapons, accelerated the Pakistani nuclear program. India tested its first bomb, codenamed "Smiling Buddha," in May 1974, putting the subcontinent on the road to nuclearization.Pakistan began the process of accumulating the necessary fuel for nuclear weapons, enriched uranium and plutonium. The country was particularly helped by one A. Q. Khan, a metallurgist working in the West who returned to his home country in 1975 with centrifuge designs and business contacts necessary to begin the enrichment process. Pakistan's program was assisted by European countries and a clandestine equipment-acquisition program designed to do an end run on nonproliferation efforts. Outside countries eventually dropped out as the true purpose of the program became clear, but the clandestine effort continued.Exactly when Pakistan had completed its first nuclear device is murky. Former president Benazir Bhutto, Zulfikar Bhutto's daughter, claimed that her father told her the first device was ready by 1977. A member of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission said design of the bomb was completed in 1978 and the bomb was "cold tested"—stopping short of an actual explosion—in 1983.Benazir Bhutto later claimed that Pakistan's bombs were stored disassembled until 1998, when India tested six bombs in a span of three days. Nearly three weeks later, Pakistan conducted a similar rapid-fire testing schedule, setting off five bombs in a single day and a sixth bomb three days later. The first device, estimated at twenty-five to thirty kilotons, may have been a boosted uranium device. The second was estimated at twelve kilotons, and the next three as sub-kiloton devices.The sixth and final device appears to have also been a twelve-kiloton bomb that was detonated at a different testing range; a U.S. Air Force "Constant Phoenix" nuclear-detection aircraft reportedly detected plutonium afterward. Since Pakistan had been working on a uranium bomb and North Korea—which shared or purchased research with Pakistan through the A. Q. Khan network—had been working on a uranium bomb, some outside observers concluded the sixth test was actually a North Korean test, detonated elsewhere to conceal North Korea's involvement although. There is no consensus on this conclusion.Experts believe Pakistan's nuclear stockpile is steadily growing. In 1998, the stockpile was estimated at five to twenty-five devices, depending on how much enriched uranium each bomb required. Today Pakistan is estimated to have an arsenal of 110 to 130 nuclear bombs. In 2015 the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center estimated Pakistan's bomb-making capability at twenty devices annually, which on top of the existing stockpile meant Pakistan could quickly become the third-largest nuclear power in the world. Other observers, however, believe Pakistan can only develop another forty to fifty warheads in the near future.Pakistani nuclear weapons are under control of the military's Strategic Plans Division, and are primarily stored in Punjab Province, far from the northwest frontier and the Taliban. Ten thousand Pakistani troops and intelligence personnel from the SPD guard the weapons. Pakistan claims that the weapons are only armed by the appropriate code at the last moment, preventing a "rogue nuke" scenario.Pakistani nuclear doctrine appears to be to deter what it considers an economically, politically and militarily stronger India. The nuclear standoff is exacerbated by the traditional animosity between the two countries, the several wars the two countries have fought, and events such as the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai, which were directed by Pakistan. Unlike neighboring India and China, Pakistan does not have a "no first use" doctrine, and reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, particularly low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, to offset India's advantage in conventional forces.Pakistan currently has a nuclear "triad" of nuclear delivery systems based on land, in the air and at sea. Islamabad is believed to have modified American-built F-16A fighters and possibly French-made Mirage fighters to deliver nuclear bombs by 1995. Since the fighters would have to penetrate India's air defense network to deliver their payloads against cities and other targets, Pakistani aircraft would likely be deliver tactical nuclear weapons against battlefield targets.Land-based delivery systems are in the form of missiles, with many designs based on or influenced by Chinese and North Korean designs. The Hatf series of mobile missiles includes the solid-fueled Hatf-III (180 miles), solid-fueled Hatf-IV (466 miles) and liquid-fueled Hatf V, (766 miles). The CSIS Missile Threat Initiative believes that as of 2014, Hatf VI (1242 miles) is likely in service. Pakistan is also developing a Shaheen III intermediate-range missile capable of striking targets out to 1708 miles, in order to strike the Nicobar and Andaman Islands.The sea component of Pakistan's nuclear force consists of the Babur class of cruise missiles. The latest version, Babur-2, looks like most modern cruise missiles, with a bullet-like shape, a cluster of four tiny tail wings and two stubby main wings, all powered by a turbofan or turbojet engine. The cruise missile has a range of 434 miles. Instead of GPS guidance, which could be disabled regionally by the U.S. government, Babur-2 uses older Terrain Contour Matching (TERCOM) and Digital Scene Matching and Area Co-relation (DSMAC) navigation technology. Babur-2 is deployed on both land and at sea on ships, where they would be more difficult to neutralize. A submarine-launched version, Babur-3, was tested in January and would be the most survivable of all Pakistani nuclear delivery systems.Pakistan is clearly developing a robust nuclear capability that can not only deter but fight a nuclear war. It is also dealing with internal security issues that could threaten the integrity of its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan and India are clearly in the midst of a nuclear arms race that could, in relative terms, lead to absurdly high nuclear stockpiles reminiscent of the Cold War. It is clear that an arms-control agreement for the subcontinent is desperately needed.Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national-security writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in the Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and the Daily Beast. In 2009, he cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. You can follow him on Twitter: @KyleMizokami.
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| No-Deal Brexit document leaked by former minister - UK government source Posted: 18 Aug 2019 04:18 AM PDT ![No-Deal Brexit document leaked by former minister - UK government source]( "No-Deal Brexit document leaked by former minister - UK government source") Documents detailing the negative impact of a no-deal Brexit were leaked by a former minister in an attempt to try and influence the government's negotiations with the European Union, a government source said on Sunday. It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders," said the source, who declined to be named.
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| Syrian troops close to western outskirts of rebel-held town Posted: 18 Aug 2019 04:06 AM PDT  Syrian state media and an opposition war monitor say government forces have gained more ground in the country's northwest, almost reaching the western outskirts of a major rebel-held town. The state SANA news agency says government troops made advances on Sunday around the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun after intense fighting with insurgents. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the war, said the troops are now about 1 kilometer, or half a mile, from Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, the last major rebel-held area in Syria.
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| UN blasts Libyan force's strikes on airport west of Tripoli Posted: 18 Aug 2019 02:48 AM PDT ![UN blasts Libyan force's strikes on airport west of Tripoli]( "UN blasts Libyan force's strikes on airport west of Tripoli") The U.N. mission in Libya has condemned airstrikes by the self-styled Libyan National Army on a militia-run airport west of the capital, Tripoli, saying the facility had no military targets. Last week, the Libyan force under commander Khalifa Hiftar said it bombed the Zuwara airport because it allegedly housed Turkish-made drones belonging to the militias allied with the U.N.-supported government in Tripoli. The Libyan National Army has been battling Tripoli militias in an offensive launched in April to take the country's capital.
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| Africa development bank says risks to growth 'increasing by the day' Posted: 18 Aug 2019 02:46 AM PDT ![Africa development bank says risks to growth 'increasing by the day']( "Africa development bank says risks to growth 'increasing by the day'") The U.S.-China trade war and uncertainty over Brexit pose risks to Africa's economic prospects that are "increasing by the day," the head of the African Development Bank (AfDB) told Reuters. Akinwumi Adesina, president of the AfDB, said the bank could review its economic growth projection for Africa - of 4% in 2019 and 4.1% in 2020 - if global external shocks accelerate.
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| My Childhood Rape and My Life That Might Have Been Posted: 18 Aug 2019 01:56 AM PDT  Photo Illustration by The Daily BeastI have become, it seems, something of a collector: old magazines filled with young starlets, Mason jars full of homemade concoctions, confidants who were once wayward lovers, and a cat who hasn't lived with his rightful owner—my now grown middle child—for too many years. There is a row of empty ceramic planters lining my window sill, awaiting soil and seeds and a goodness that will never arrive.Then there are the scars, both physical and emotional, that I have collected—too numerous, it seems, and too painful to count. Sometimes, I run my fingers across the blemishes—the nicks and pits and disfigurements—that litter my body. There are few mirrors in my house, lest I am forced to see the fullness of their bounty. Each one whispers its own story. Each one holds its own trauma, some petty and some profound, one and all a maker of all that is me. A thin brown keloid marks the spot along my right heel, sliced open by a broken bottle in the yard some 46 years ago when we lived in a Duck Hill public housing project. There are various other cuts and burns, some abrasions from scraping concrete, hopping fences and climbing trees. They remind me of the moments when I rejected my girlness, the femininity that left me vulnerable and afraid. I rarely think about them now or even about the small rise of skin on my back, where a man who swore he loved me shoved a blade into the meat of my shoulder as I ran screaming for my life. I tell myself that, for the most part, I have let them and the circumstances that wrought them go, and that some things, like the cat at my feet, must simply be embraced. There are a few, though, that have yet to heal. Goldie Taylor—An Open Letter to the Young Woman 'Raped at Spelman'It was the most beautiful thing I had ever seen—a 24-inch orange 10-speed with a black seat and matching vinyl-wrapped handlebars. I first spotted it on the lower floor of a Northwest Plaza department store. My godfather, Thom Puckett, promised that if I helped out around his Sinclair gas station, he would "see about that bicycle." I swept the stockroom, grabbed extra cans of motor oil for my "uncle" Frank, and washed window shields for every customer that pulled up to a full-service pump. Puckett, who would later buy and teach me to drive my first car, made good on his word. It was 1980 and I had just finished sixth grade. I had been elected student council president in an all-white school. The gravity of that missed me. They were simply my friends. Some still are. We played together in a creek awash with nuclear waste, ferried cakes to celebrate Mrs. Bateman's birthday, and learned to swim at Tiemeyer Park. I could not know it then, but the world was changing around me as the evening news carried stories of an Olympic boycott, a child born from a test tube, a presidential election, and American hostages in Iran. I remember witnessing a solar eclipse from the back playground at Buder Elementary School, our makeshift viewfinders fashioned from shoeboxes. Even then, I was mesmerized by it all. Johnny Carson was the king of late night television. CNN aired its maiden newscast. My older sister got married and had a baby that summer.Weeks after Mt. St. Helen's spewed its lava, smoke and ash into the sky, I pulled the bike from the side yard and left our small pale green house on St. Christopher Lane. It was morning, the sun still low but already burning away the dewy air. My legs, even with the saddle lowered flush with the frame's top tube, were barely long enough to reach the pedals. I was headed to summer camp, a free city-run program at Schafer Park. It wasn't far. Maybe a half mile. I proudly parked my bike alongside the gazebo and spent the day playing checkers, swatting tennis balls and stringing colorful beads.Some time that afternoon, I started the way home, pushing my way up sloping St. Williams Lane. Clumsily switching gears, I felt a tug at my bicycle seat as I hit the top up the small incline. It was a familiar face—an older boy, maybe 16 or 17, named Chris. What unfolded next left a wound so deep and abiding that, until this summer, I could not speak it aloud. I told myself that, like the stack of cookbooks I never open, this was a chapter best left closed. I told myself it did not matter. I remember being led down a path that led to Hoech Jr. High School and through the parking lot to a house on the other side of Ashby Road, just south of Tiemeyer Park. He pushed me through the door of a screened-in back porch, yanked down my blue and white basketball shorts, and raped me on the slat board flooring.I was eleven years old. I remember the long walk home, the darkening sky above and the buzzing winged insects that danced around the streetlights. Long after the last of the sun had drifted from the sky, I sat on our painted concrete porch sobbing, waiting for somebody to come home. My panties bloodied, my arms and knees scraped. The pain seemed to come from everywhere. I waited there with my cat Lucky, afraid to go inside until my mother turned into the gravel drive. I was unmoored. I had no idea what that meant then, but it seems the only fitting word writing this now. I belonged nowhere, and to no one specifically. Nobody took me to see a doctor. Not for my injuries, not for the infection that came after. Nobody went to the police or even sat me down to talk through what happened. My mother gave me two pills—antibiotics I assume—and rubbed ointment on the boil. I remember the pitying look she gave me, and the anger she seemed to have for me. I could not help but to believe that whatever happened to me, wherever I had been, had been my fault. Looking back, I can only imagine what manner of hell might have been unleashed in our predominantly white, working-class neighborhood where we were one of only three black families. I cannot imagine what might have been said to an all-white St. Ann police department, which took a particular interest in my decidedly black teenage brother. Or maybe, my mother's response was a byproduct of the horrors she experienced as a child. I can make no excuses for the care and protection I was not given, though I can now give them some measure of context. Part of me understands or at least wants to. Part of me wants to go back, to demand more and better for myself.As I returned later to pull my bike from the opening of a tunnel along Coldwater Creek, where it had been ditched, I remember thinking, knowing that I was on my own. It was not the first time I had been molested and it would not be the last. The sexual violence that I endured during my formative years—at five when a neighbor boy in our housing project lured a group of my playmates into an upper bedroom, at 13 when an older cousin in the basement of my aunt's house, through high school when a football coach preyed on me and my classmates. Sometime in 1981, I was sent to live with an aunt in East St. Louis, the crumbling town my mother had fought so relentlessly to leave. I slept on the living room floor for several years, often soiling myself in the night. When I wasn't scrubbing floors, polishing furniture or lining a church pew, I immersed myself in books of every sort. The library in our bottoming-out neighborhood was my refuge, my safe harbor. I found Toni Morrison, Nikki Giovanni, Langston Hughes and James Baldwin there. To them, and to an 8th grade honors English teacher, I owe my very survival. I was without my mother then, detached from all that I had known. My blackness was suddenly present and burdensome in ways I cannot number or name. The school smelled of piss, the lunches served in plastic wrappings and the texts missing full chapters. I won another race for student council president, joined the speech team—winning statewide competitions—and wrote essays that brought accolades. Anything to escape the lack and despair of the half burned-out school house. Goldie Taylor—Why I Waited Decades to Tell Anyone I Was RapedThere are no repressed memories for me, only a tucking away. Some of the marks on my psyche are indelible, I know. But nothing was so hurtful as the sense of abandonment I felt then and even now. It has marred relationships with my closest family and undermined my ability to navigate the waters of intimate relationships. I learned to fight, early on, as a means of self preservation and I rarely leave home after the street lights come on. This summer, as I began pulling together old essays and penning a spiritual memoir, these are the things I know that I cannot avoid. If I am to speak of my life, of the joys and triumphs, the vulnerabilities, ailments and healings, of the rocky road made smooth by the might of my own faith that there has and will be better, there is nothing I can leave out.I think now about the life that went unlived, the one that gathered layers of mold in the dark cabinets of desolation. I sometimes wonder what I might have been, but for the pus and scarring of sexual violence, how it formed and defined and confined me. Even so, I marvel in the journey itself, the things I learned to reject and accept, the withering of my faith and the solace I have created for myself in its absence. There is a strange peace in this, an odd sense of surety that I cannot shake. It allows me no hatred, no compulsion for retribution. The wounds are without salt. There is a comfort knowing that my tomorrows, if nothing else in this world, belong to me. What I choose to carry with me, to what extent what lay behind me colors the road ahead, is a decision that only I can make. "You wanna fly," Toni Morrison wrote, "you gotta give up the shit that weighs you down."At some point, I imagine I will get around to planting that herb garden. But, for now, I am content to bear witness to my own blooming. Though the scars remains, there is a life—I know—beyond them.Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| South Korea and Japan Must Resolve Their Trade Spat Posted: 18 Aug 2019 01:10 AM PDT  Some foreign-policy disagreements are necessary and some are a matter of choice. The current low ebb of relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) is more the latter rather than the former. U.S. interests not only dictate doing more to restore allied harmony, but also advise strongly against compounding tensions.Yet President Donald Trump is demanding a rapid and steep increase in host-nation support from Japan and the ROK at a time when those Northeast Asian allies are engaged in a dangerous intra-alliance squabble. Trump is right to want prosperous allies to shoulder greater burdens. He is especially justified in desiring the redistribution of allied costs when the chief security challenge is mutual defense against the neighbors of U.S. allies. However, just as the protection of the homeland is an overriding responsibility of the commander in chief, so, too, should national security concerns take precedence over financial ones. America can live with less than perfectly reciprocal and equitable alliances—they've always been that way anyway. But the United States really should not risk trying to go it alone in a dangerous world. Deterring North Korea, managing China, building a region of networked security partners to stand up to revisionist powers, and signaling the durability of U.S. leadership are all vital. They are more important than trying to extract more financial support from allied countries that host American forces at this tenuous moment. Moreover, on top of the recent sharp deterioration in relations between Tokyo and Seoul, there is already excessive doubt in the region about U.S. reliability and staying power. The Trump administration's stated vision of a free-and-open Indo-Pacific region is rightly predicated on leveraging effective alliances. Allies and partners are critical to reinforcing Washington's postwar system, which is under siege from rival powers. As the Department of Defense regional strategy report declares, the "U.S.-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific" and the "U.S.-ROK Alliance is the linchpin of peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia, as well as the Korean Peninsula."If America's cornerstone and linchpin are damaged, then it follows that Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy is also badly encumbered. First, the fraying ties between Seoul and Tokyo hamper America's North Korea policy. Specifically, Washington's diverted attention helps Kim Jong-un with his divide-and-rule tactics and could undermine deterrence in a crisis. America enjoys maximum leverage on North Korea when policies are tightly aligned among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. Washington should have learned this during the Perry process—when former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry engaged in concerted trilateral diplomacy to repair cracks in alliance solidarity—at the end of the 1990s. Certainly, the Kim regime works hard to keep all outside powers at odds, and recent missile launches are in part a test of alliance solidarity. If America's attempt at negotiating with North Korea is to have any chance of success, then U.S. allies need to be aligned. The United States has been able to engage in experimental diplomacy for two reasons. First, Kim is boxed in because he cannot actually use his weapons without unacceptable risk. Second, he cannot develop his economy without substantive steps toward denuclearization. Whether U.S. diplomacy with North Korea ultimately succeeds or fails, and whether Washington is in need of help with North Korean infrastructure or alliance missile defenses, the ROK, the United States and Japan will all need each other.A second, related problem is that crisis among U.S. allies hinders dealing with a world in which there is resurgent major power competition. The alliance drift—suggested by a failure to stem the falling out of Japan and South Korea—impedes cooperation for managing an increasingly assertive China and a Russia desperate to remain relevant. Current alliance troubles especially play into Beijing's unrelenting narrative that U.S. alliances are relics of the past. That propaganda line argues that the whole postwar system failed to account for PRC ambitions and the future of the "China dream."One of the unintended effects of Japan's recent decision to enforce tighter control over the export of chemicals critical to South Korean manufacturing of semiconductors and display panels is that Seoul could become more dependent on China for those imports. This is advantageous for Beijing because it is in the midst of pushing national champion companies beholden to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to dominate cutting-edge technologies.Although few countries are signing up to the CCP slogan of a "community of common destiny," the pushback against U.S. leadership and power is prevalent in parts of Asia, even in some allied governments. If responding to the China challenge to rewrite the rules and dominate critical technologies that are key to commanding the twenty-first-century economy is indeed an overriding strategic objective, the United States will need to do a better job of mobilizing others, beginning with its cornerstone and linchpin allies.Finally, the dispute between Japan and South Korea perpetuates rising nationalism, protectionism, and unilateralism. The (not completely) unintended impact of an "America First" slogan is that any domestic appeal and support is more important than any overseas revulsion. But it is not enough to criticize the administration. After all, other countries in Asia put their country first, time and again. They all have national industrial policies and more closed economic systems. Even America's closest allies enjoy an element of free riding—especially as the challenges mount and allies and partners fail to pick up the rising tab for security public goods.But these realities do not alter what is essential for U.S. national security and what is simply desirable. The Trump administration is simultaneously attempting to arrest China's bad behavior and most-threatening power gains, while seeking a serious adjustment on power and burden-sharing with effective allies. This includes pressure to correct trade imbalances, as well as demands for the allies to shoulder greater burdens for regional security.The United States cannot afford the extravagance an unnecessary argument among its closest allies. Instead of managing a proliferating North Korea and an assertive, rising China, Washington must now manage the perception of America as a declining superpower with weakening regional security architecture. That means Trump needs to lengthen the timelines for improving burden-sharing.If peace is generally best maintained through strength defined as capability plus will, then new questions about U.S. alliances are occurring precisely at the time when solidarity among like-minded powers is needed to check revisionism and aggression.U.S. pressure and leadership are needed to help the Japanese and South Koreans find a path back to cooperation and away from hostility that puts at risk all that the United States has worked to establish in the region and internationally. But the quarrel between important allies should redouble America' focus on why these alliances matter in the first place. The United States needs to arrest doubts about its leadership and political will, even as Washington asks its prosperous allies to shoulder greater burdens than in the past.Dr. Patrick M. Cronin is senior fellow and the Asia-Pacific Security Chair at Hudson Institute.Image: Reuters
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| China's Belt and Road Plan Is Destroying the World Posted: 18 Aug 2019 01:10 AM PDT  China has continually assured the world that its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a green project. At the first BRI forum in May 2017, Chinese president Xi Jinping touted BRI as a "vision of green development and a way of life and work that is green, low-carbon, circular and sustainable." Similar promises were made at this year's forum in April. However, China has long been the world's largest exporter of coal power equipment, exporting twice as much as its nearest competitor. At the same time as the first forum, Chinese companies were building an estimated 140 coal plants abroad, including in countries like Egypt and Pakistan that previously burned little to no coal. At the current rate, Chinese coal plant developers will drive energy investments that make it impossible to limit global warming to safe levels. If Chinese development banks continue their current practices, then pollution will inevitably worsen around the world.The Belt and Road's Dirty TruthsMuch of what Beijing touts as development assistance for power projects worsens pollution. Nearly 40 percent of Chinese Development Bank (CDB) and Chinese Ex-Im spending on electricity generation has gone toward coal. As a result, the amount of coal-fired generation Chinese policy banks are directly responsible for between 2013, the year that BRI was announced, and 2018 could generate enough electricity to power Norway or Poland. This surge in coal-fired generation will come with a drastic emissions increase. Chinese development finance flows between 2013 and 2018, by conservative estimates, will contribute to annual emissions equivalent to that of the Netherlands. Overall, projects backed by Chinese development banks will produce more coal-fired power globally than clean energy generation, setting the path ahead in the wrong direction. If it were not for government support, then Chinese coal power suppliers almost certainly would not be as successful and global emissions would be fewer.The CDB and Chinese Ex-Im financed power plants in thirty-eight countries since 2013, nearly half of which are fossil fuel-based. Most Chinese-financed, coal-fired power plants built overseas use low-efficiency, subcritical coal technology, which produces some of the highest emissions of any form of power generation. In more than one-third of countries, projects funded by the Chinese development banks increase national emissions intensity. That is, Chinese foreign aid makes those countries' power sectors higher emitting than before.The picture is even worse in countries where China has concentrated efforts. In Pakistan, where Beijing has focused massive amounts of BRI spending through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, China has financed so much coal that its power investments are more than twice as emissions heavy as Pakistan's electric grid was in 2012. Overall, as Chinese development finance in a country's power sector increases, it becomes harder for that country to lower emissions.Beijing did not finance fossil fuel projects in more than half of the thirty-eight countries, but China's non-fossil fuel projects constitute one-off investments over the six-year period. Moreover, nearly all those non-fossil fuel projects are not wind and solar but hydroelectric dams, which carry their own environmental damage. China's hydroelectric projects portend ruin for millions of farmers and fishermen.Better Alliances and Best PracticesThe United States should not allow China to freely and falsely claim the mantle of global environmental and clean energy leadership. BRI marks a new era of U.S.-China global competition, in which Chinese funding for development and infrastructure projects could bring Beijing economic and strategic benefits at America's expense. Take Southeast Asia, for example—Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Vietnam all receive Chinese development finance for power generation projects. The region is home to the Straits of Malacca, the second largest oil trade chokepoint after Hormuz, several U.S. military installations, and the world's fastest-growing economic market.As it stands, Beijing is leveraging environmentally and socially harmful infrastructure projects for diplomatic capital that blunts America's Indo-Pacific military presence and gives it a competitive advantage over the United States in an important emerging market. On the other side of Asia, Beijing-backed coal projects are, in part, helping the Chinese Communist Party deepen defense cooperation with Islamabad while worsening air pollution that already causes tens of thousands of premature deaths annually.The State Department should highlight these environmental and social costs and the comparative advantage of U.S. power projects under Indo-Pacific Strategy initiatives, which seek to grow the region's energy markets while minimizing environmental impact. If the United States firmly communicates the environmental and social costs of Chinese development finance, then Beijing's reputation should suffer accordingly amid a growing global backlash to BRI.Further, the United States should cement ongoing partnerships with Australia, India, and Japan—some of America's strongest allies in the Indo-Pacific region—to internationalize new standards on "quality infrastructure." Even with the creation of the new International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the United States cannot compete dollar for dollar with BRI. This burden-sharing strategy will help pool and coordinate funds competing with Beijing.The United States will find it difficult to sway countries away from Chinese development finance and China away from financing low-quality coal projects. That China has been supporting coal abroad while canceling coal projects at home is simple self-interest: Beijing sees coal equipment exports as a solution for excess industrial capacity. Beijing must keep legacy coal manufacturers afloat because the Chinese coal industry and steel industry, which depends on coal, supply roughly twelve million Chinese jobs. The United States should consider the important role that domestic concerns play in Beijing's development assistance plans and pursue strategies that help assuage them. The Energy Department could facilitate projects to transition coal and steelworkers in both the United States and China into roles in the clean energy economy, such as the production and installation of solar panels and wind turbines.Convincing Beijing Despite repeated claims of "green development," President Xi tacitly admitted BRI's first phase has been an environment failure. After the second Belt and Road Forum, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a list of deliverables that include many efforts to make BRI greener. The United States can independently verify and communicate widely whether China is making progress toward these goals. Unless the United States challenges Chinese claims and competes with Chinese development projects, Beijing will continue to diplomatically benefit from asserting leadership with little cost. Chinese development finance likely has an even more harmful impact than visible, given the low quality of Chinese coal technology. More transparency would allow the United States to engage China on BRI's true environmental and social impact. If the United States can successfully push China to become a more responsible provider of development assistance, then global prosperity would grow, emissions increases would slow, and Beijing's ability to deploy foreign aid at America's expense would diminish. Sagatom Saha is a research associate for energy and U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.Image: Rueters
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| The F-111 Aardvark: The Assassin Strike Plane Sent to Kill Gaddafi Posted: 18 Aug 2019 01:07 AM PDT  Desert Storm was the Aardvark's last hurrah. The F-111 was finally withdrawn from U.S. Air Force service in 1998. Though the Aardvark was good at its job, it had high maintenance costs, and the Air Force judged that its fleet of F-15E Strike Eagles could take care of shorter-range attack missions, while B-1 bombers could handle longer range strikes.The General Dynamics F-111 Aardvark was a low-altitude strike plane born out of a shotgun wedding between competing Air Force and Navy requirements—with Defense Secretary McNamara as the minister. Despite its troubled adolescence, it grew into a capable high-tech night bomber that lasted decades in service, noted for its sleekly elegant profile.(This first appeared in 2016.)Troubled ConceptionIn the early 1960s, the Air Force came to realize that new, radar-guided surface-to-air missiles such as the Soviet SA-2 could reach its slow, high-altitude bombers. In response, it devised a new concept: a smaller long-range supersonic bomber that could skim close to the ground, below radar systems. At the same time, the U.S. Navy was looking for a fast, long-range carrier-based interceptor armed with air-to-air missiles that could take out Soviet bombers from a distance.Newly appointed Defense Secretary Robert McNamara was convinced that a single aircraft could satisfy both requirements, thereby saving on development costs. The Army and Navy were less keen on compromising their visions, but were forced to cooperate on the so-called TFX program. A contract was awarded to General Dynamics in 1962. Because the design was smaller than Air Force strategic bombers, and the service eschewed the "attack" designation used by the Navy, it was designated with an "F" for fighter.Revolutionary DesignThe F-111 was built around two powerful yet fuel-efficient TF30 turbofan engines with new afterburner technology. A capacious fuselage could accommodate bomb loads of up to 31,000 pounds and fuel for missions up 2,500 miles long, with external tanks adding another 1,000 miles. The large plane weighed twenty tons empty—or more than twice that loaded.The designers of the F-111 faced a challenge: they needed a plane that could fly at very high speeds, but still take off or land on a short runway. Using smaller wings would create less drag, allowing the aircraft to fly faster—but also create less lift, requiring the aircraft achieve higher speeds before it take off, in turn necessitating a longer runway. For example, the other supersonic fighter-bomber of the era, the F-105 Thunderchief, had very small wings—and required airstrips over a mile long for takeoff, limiting which airfields it could operate from.The F-111's designers adopted the new technology of variable-geometry, or "swing" wings. These permitted the wings to swing out during takeoff to generate maximum lift, and then would tuck inward midflight to achieve higher speeds. The F-111 was the first of several major designs that used the technology.The two-man crew sat side by side in a cockpit pod. If they needed to escape, a rocket boosted the pod upward, which then floated to the ground on a parachute, just like a space capsule.A key innovation was the F-111's revolutionary new terrain-following radar, which mapped the ground directly in front of the plane and then automatically adjusted the flight path to avoid collision. This allowed F-111s to fly as low as two hundred feet above the surface and make precise adjustments at high speed without crashing—even when flying at night, or in bad weather conditions. The F-111's talent for hunting in darkness, nose close to the ground, was what earned it the appellation "Aardvark."Early F-111s did show promise, capable of flying over the speed of sound at Mach 1.2 at low-altitude, or more than double that (Mach 2.5) at high altitude—all the while requiring only a 2,000 foot runway to land. It was the first tactical aircraft to cross from the United States to Europe without mid-air refueling.However, the F-111's design was biased in favor of the Air Force's specifications. The carrier-based interceptor version, the F-111B, performed abominably in trials, struggling to exceed Mach 1. The expensive forced compromise that was the naval version was finally scrapped, leaving everyone millions of dollars poorer. Many of the more promising design elements of the F-111B made it over to the F-14 Tomcat, however.Deployment in AsiaThe Air Force F-111s didn't have an auspicious debut in combat. After a detachment of six F-111As was deployed to Vietnam in 1968, three of them crashed in just fifty-five missions, all of them accidents linked to defective wing stabilizers. The Air Force was forced to withdraw the F-111 and correct the flaw at a cost of $100 million.Recommended: Why an F-22 Raptor Would Crush an F-35 in a 'Dogfight'Recommended: Air War: Stealth F-22 Raptor vs. F-14 Tomcat (That Iran Still Flies)Recommended: A New Report Reveals Why There Won't Be Any 'New' F-22 RaptorsIt wasn't until the Linebacker raids in 1972 that the F-Aardvark finally demonstrated its potential. Skimming beneath North Vietnam's extensive radar network at night, F-111s blasted North Vietnamese airfields and air defense batteries, weakening the resistance to incoming B-52 raids. Aardvarks didn't require the fighter escort, electronic warfare support, or midair refueling that other bombers required, and could operate in inclement weather. Only six F-111s were lost in combat over the course 4,000 missions during the war, one of the lowest loss rates of the war.F-111s ended up participating in the last combat operation undertaken by the U.S. military in South East Asia, when the Cambodian Khmer Rouge seized the container ship S.S. Mayaguez in May 1975. Two Aardvarks diverted from a training flight were the first to locate the Mayaguez. Later, an F-111 sank a Khmer Rouge patrol boat escorting the seized ship.Variants563 F-111s of all variants were built. After the F-111A, the F-111D and E models upgraded the Aardvark's electronics and engine inlets, and increased the thrust of the engines. Another variant, the FB-111, was designed as a strategic bomber with improved engines, stretched two feet longer to accommodate additional fuel. Seventy-five of these served in Strategic Air Command units.The F-111C was sold exclusively to Australia. It incorporated a mixture of design elements of the FB-111 and F-111E.The definitive F-111F sported engines with thirty-five percent more thrust, an upgraded radar and a Pave Tack infrared targeting pod that allowed crew to identify targets on the ground and hit them with precision-guided munitions.Starting in the mid–1970s, forty-two F-111As were converted into unarmed EF-111A Raven electronic jamming platforms at a cost $1.5 billion. The EF-111's key system was an ALQ-99E jamming pod that emitted radiation that scrambled radars in the vicinity, permitting entire formations of aircraft to pass in its wake undetected. When active, the jammer's current literally caused the hairs on the crew's heads to stand as it crackled through the plane. Thus, the Raven was known as the "Spark Vark" to its pilots. The EF-111 is distinguishable by the receiver pod on the tail fin.El Dorado Canyon RaidThe F-111 would return to the stage of world history in 1986, after the bombing of the La Belle nightclub perpetrated by Libyan agents in Berlin killed two U.S. servicemen. Reagan ordered an attack on Libyan dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi's personal compound near Tripoli codenamed Operation El Dorado Canyon. It was an early attempt to assassinate a head of state by air attack.An array of twenty-five SAM sites defended Tripoli. A squadron of eighteen F-111Fs carried out the main attack, joined by four EF-111 Ravens to electronically scramble the defense radars. A separate Navy strike hit targets near Benghazi.Because the United States couldn't get approval from mainland European countries for the raid, the Aardvarks took off from the UK and had to circumnavigate Spain, increasing total flight time to thirteen hours. In all, they would need to be refueled six times on the roundtrip. It was the longest fighter mission in history.As a feat of logistics, the raid was impressive—but unfortunately, both F-111's performance and the conception of the operation as a whole left something to be desired. One F-111 was shot down, probably by a SAM, and its crew was lost. Four were unable to release weapons because of avionics failures, and one F-111 had to land in Spain because of an overheating engine. Seven missed their target, with several of the bombs landing in civilian areas, nearly hitting the French embassy.Qaddafi managed to escape thanks in part due to a last-minute warning from the prime minister of Italy. Eight of his children and his wife were wounded, and his infant adopted daughter Hanna reportedly killed. (There is some controversy as to Hanna's identity and whether she survived). Though Qaddafi was shaken, he went on to instigate further terrorist attacks, notably the hijacking of Pan Am 73 and the bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.Aardvarks and Ravens Over IraqOn January 17, 1991, the opening night of Operation Desert Storm, Aardvarks zipped across the desert at a low altitude, targeting Iraqi air defenses and key military installations with laser-guided bombs. Meanwhile, EF-111 Ravens accompanied strike packages of coalition aircraft flying deep into Iraq, their jammers disabling Iraqi air-defense radars. In all, sixty-six F-111Fs and 18 F-111Es were deployed in the 1991 Iraq War, flying 5,000 missions.Contrary to popular belief, the Iraqi Air Force didn't make things a cakewalk on the first day. Two F-111s were hit by infrared-guided R-23 missiles fired by MiG-23s. Another was struck by an R-60 missile shot by a MiG-29. In all three cases, the hardy Aardvarks made it back to base.An EF-111 was not so lucky in February. While taking evasive maneuvers after detecting an enemy plane, it crashed into the ground, losing both crew members.However, a Raven piloted by James Denton went on to score one of the most unusual aerial victories of the conflict.On the opening day of Desert Storm, Denton's EF-111 was skimming just 400 feet above the ground in the morning darkness, leading the way for a strike package of F-15E fighter bombers with F-15C fighters for top cover. While passing the H3 airfield, an Iraqi Mirage F1 fighter fell in behind the Raven. Denton rolled sharply to the left, then to the right and pumped out chaff, evading a heat-seeking missile. As the Iraqi pilot attempted to match the Raven's evasive maneuvers, he lost situational awareness and his jet slammed into the ground.Thus, the unarmed Raven variant scored the only aerial victory for the F-111 "fighter".As Iraqi defenses thinned out, the Aardvarks were redirected to hit ground forces. The F-111F's Pave Tack system proved effective at "tank plinking"—identifying Iraqi armored vehicles with its infrared scanner, and then precisely directing a laser-guided bomb on top of it. Over 1,500 Iraqi vehicles were "plinked" by F-111s.F-111s also targeted the oil manifold Saddam had sabotaged, stopping the flow of petroleum polluting the Persian Gulf.Desert Storm was the Aardvark's last hurrah. The F-111 was finally withdrawn from U.S. Air Force service in 1998. Though the Aardvark was good at its job, it had high maintenance costs, and the Air Force judged that its fleet of F-15E Strike Eagles could take care of shorter-range attack missions, while B-1 bombers could handle longer range strikes.The EF-111, however, had no replacement in the Air Force inventory. It was left to Navy and Marine EA-6B Prowlers—and today, EA-18G Growlers—to fulfill the jamming role.Pigs of the PacificThe F-111 remained in service with the Australian Air Force until 2010, where it was affectionately known as the 'Pig.' Starting with a batch of 24 F-111Cs received in 1973, the Australians acquired an additional 15 FB-111s and four F-111As. Though never used in combat, the F-111s gave Australia the ability to project military force across the vast distances of the Pacific Ocean, enhancing its diplomatic clout.Pigs were the pride of Australian air shows, where they frequently performed a maneuver in which fuel was dumped and ignited with the afterburners, known as the Dump and Burn. Australia upgrades its F-111s to use anti-shipping missiles, and converted four into reconnaissance aircraft. Due to their high operating costs, however, they were finally replaced by twenty-four F-18F Super Hornets.While the F-111 has been retired, a similar aircraft remains in use today. The Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer was conceived shortly after the F-111, and is remarkably similar in appearance and role, down to the swing wings. Not quite the Aardvark's equal in terms of range, speed or weapons load, nearly three times more Su-24s were produced and over three hundred serve on today in various world air forces. They have been actively used in combat over Syria, Chechnya, Libya, Afghanistan and Ukraine. A Russian Su-24 attacking Syrian rebels was shot down in 2015 by a Turkish F-16, causing a major diplomatic incident.Sébastien Roblin holds a Master's Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.
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| China's Military Is Ready For War: Everything You Need to Know. Posted: 18 Aug 2019 01:02 AM PDT  PLA concepts and capabilities also include military and para-military forces that operate below the threshold of war, such as increased presence in contested waters of fishing fleets and supporting maritime militia and navy vessels. These operations might spark conflict when an opposing claimant such as the Philippines, Vietnam, or Japan responds.Americans are slowly but undeniably facing a new reality in global great power relations that will define the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy for the foreseeable future. The 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strategy mark an acknowledgment by not only the current administration but also a broad, bipartisan swath of government and private sector entities that China's increasing swagger as it emerges on the world stage warrants a more confrontational approach toward the country.Although untested in battle for four decades, China's military is one reason for the nation's growing confidence. The People's Liberation Army, or PLA, has modernized and could become an attractive tool for Chinese leaders weighing options to solve regional disagreements. As American policymakers and legislators consider responses—and commit taxpayer resources accordingly—perhaps it's time for Americans to raise their PLA awareness. Enter the "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2019," authored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and released Thursday.For nearly two decades, annual iterations of this report have served as perhaps the most essential openly accessible source for understanding the PLA. This year's version goes beyond reporting on PLA's progress to outline its role in China's effort to gain preeminence in the Indo-Pacific region—an effort encompassing a range of economic, foreign policy, and national security initiatives. A report that has primarily served as a resource for military analysts has become increasingly useful to a broader audience seeking to understand China's strategic objectives.This year's report covers three areas that should be of interest to legislators, leaders, and laypeople concerned about the defense of American interests over the next few decades. First, the report provides strategic context, noting that the PLA is but one aspect of growing Chinese power and operates beyond China's borders in a very limited fashion when compared with other levers of power. The report highlights global "influence operations" supported by China's economic clout. These are Chinese efforts to develop "power brokers" or centers of influence for coercive interference in the sovereign activities of other nations, despite Beijing's stated position of non-interference in the affairs of others. Second, the report provides details on President Xi Jinping's military restructuring efforts and mobilization of resources across Chinese society to build a force capable of fighting regional wars. PLA capabilities increasingly align with China's regional objectives, providing credible options for enforcing territorial claims disputed by American allies and partners on Taiwan, in the South and East China Seas, and along the Sino-Indian border. New geographic commands responsible for operations on and beyond China's periphery provide a link between joint forces and the regional wars they may be directed to fight, shoring up decades-old weaknesses. Vast improvements in strategic support to military operations from space, counter-space, and cyber forces underpin a growing regional precision strike capability, challenging U.S. and allied forces that might respond to regional crises.PLA concepts and capabilities also include military and para-military forces that operate below the threshold of war, such as increased presence in contested waters of fishing fleets and supporting maritime militia and navy vessels. These operations might spark conflict when an opposing claimant such as the Philippines, Vietnam, or Japan responds.Third, the report provides needed insight into Chinese perspectives, sounding alarm bells without being overly alarmist. Chinese leaders fear being contained by the more competitive stance reflected in U.S. security and defense strategies, the report notes. Understanding China's threat perceptions, while remaining clear-eyed regarding differences in objectives, is essential to developing strategies to deter conflict.The report also highlights the importance of maintaining open lines of communications between the U.S. military and the PLA, with contacts designed to "maintain a constructive, results-oriented relationship with China." While the Department of Defense doesn't want to help the PLA become more capable or lethal, its doors are open to resolve issues related to U.S. and Chinese forces operating in the Indo-Pacific and to avoid misunderstandings in the event of crisis.In rolling out the report, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randall Schriver noted, that "while the National defense Strategy emphasizes competition, we certainly don't seek conflict with China and it doesn't preclude cooperation where our interests align." America and the region thrive where trade, people, and ideas flow in stable fashion, and where China participates and resolves issues without resorting to military force. Americans and our allies and partners need to better understand the strategic lay of the land if we are going to mobilize resources wisely for a long-term competition with China that reinforces these interests. Cortez A. Cooper III is a senior international policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.
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| Yemen Shiite Rebels Appoint an Ambassador to Iran for First Time Posted: 18 Aug 2019 12:45 AM PDT ![Yemen Shiite Rebels Appoint an Ambassador to Iran for First Time]( "Yemen Shiite Rebels Appoint an Ambassador to Iran for First Time") (Bloomberg) -- Yemen's Houthi rebel government appointed its first ambassador to Iran, days after a delegation met Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, the rebel-held Saba news agency.The appointment of Ibrahim Mohammed Al-Dailami is meant to boost ties between Yemen and Iran, the rebel leader, Abdulmalik al-Houthi, said on TV. Al-Houthi said the relationship with Tehran will be better than it was in the past as it's based on "brotherhood and mutual causes," such as the Palestinian issue. The government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi suspended diplomatic relations with Tehran in October 2015, accusing Iran of backing the Houthi rebels. The government of the Houthis, which is not recognized by the international community, only has an ambassador in Syria.Iran's Foreign Ministry arranged for the visiting Houthi delegation to meet the British, German, French and Italian ambassadors. To contact the reporter on this story: Mohammed Hatem in Dubai at mhatem1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Riad Hamade at rhamade@bloomberg.net, Claudia MaedlerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Constraining Iran Requires Ending its Colonization of Arabistan Posted: 18 Aug 2019 12:30 AM PDT  Iran's meddling across the Middle East is increasing. Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen seize ships, Iranian proxies fire missiles into neighboring countries, and the Islamic Republic continues to seek a land bridge to the Mediterranean. Enabling Tehran's malign outreach is its oil wealth. Iran possesses the fourth largest known oil reserves in the world. Eighty percent of Iran's oil is found in Khuzestan, the southwestern province at the head of the Gulf. A century ago, the region—once known as Arabistan, or "land of the Arabs"—was practically independent under Sheikh Khaz'al bin Jabir. In 1925, however, the same year the shah changed Persia's name to Iran, the shah kidnapped him and held him under house arrest in Tehran while Iranian troops moved into Khorramshahr (then known as Mohammerah). Occupation followed. Khaz'al never returned. In 1936, assassins murdered him in his sleep.Across administrations and both before and after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, successive U.S. administrations recognized Iranian unity and effectively blessed Iranian conquest of the Arab emirate. Had U.S. policy instead recognized that Arabistan has its own history and people distinct from Iran, then it is unlikely that the Islamic Republic of Iran could sponsor the terrorism in which it now engages.For centuries, Persians used the term "Arabistan" to refer to what is now southwestern Iran simply because they recognized that it was ethnically and linguistically distinct. With many of Persia's largest cities in the interior of the Persian plateau, Arabistan was also secluded, separated from the rest of Iran by the Zagros Mountains. Arabistan's tribal governance was traditionally distinct from Iran's monarchy and bureaucracy. The leaders of Arabistan were fine with their loose arrangement with Tehran, believing the protection of the Persian shahs to be preferable to subjugation, harassment and economic exploitation by Ottoman Turks. Indeed, Iranian shahs took little interest in Arabistan until the discovery of oil there in the first decade of the twentieth century.Iranian leaders often claim to defend victims of oppression and discrimination across the region, whether they be Shia communities in other countries or the Palestinians in conflict with Israel. Despite their lofty rhetoric, they have failed to address their own oppression and discrimination against the Arabs whose oil-rich land they have exploited for decades. The discrimination is vast: Ethnic Arabs in Arabistan are not allowed to name their children Arabic names unless they were also the names of major Shia figures. Amnesty International has chronicled the disappearances and executions of ethnic Arabs across the province, as authorities in Tehran seek to complete their slow-motion ethnic cleansing.Both the United States and its regional partners appear perplexed at how to respond to increasing Iranian aggression. They have tried all the usual diplomatic and economic mechanisms of statecraft, but most do not want war with Iran. Still, despite the Trump administration's "maximum pressure campaign," Iranian officials siphon off enough oil to fund and to continue their support for insurgencies and terrorism campaigns. Perhaps, then, the time is now to deny Iran the resources it wastes, restore regional stability, and right a historic wrong by setting Arabistan free.Sheikh Abdullah Al Khazaal is the grandson of Sheikh Khaz'al and a graduate of New York University Abu Dhabi.Image: Reuters.
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| Radioactive Tragedy: Russia's New Cruise Missile Would Be a Terror on the Battlefield Posted: 18 Aug 2019 12:00 AM PDT  At nine in the morning on August 8, 2019, an explosion resonated across the cold waters of the arctic White Sea. A missile had exploded lifting off from an offshore research platform near Nyonoksa, Russia.Long-range missiles had been tested at a site adjacent to the rural town since 1965, and accidents were hardly unprecedented. In 2015, debris from an errant cruise missile rained onto a residential complex with a kindergarten on its ground floor, setting the building on fire but fortunately leaving residents unscathed.Tragically, the August 8 incident proved more lethal. Initially, media reported two testers died in the blast. But subsequent reports increased the number to three, then five, then seven.Indeed, as many as fifteen may have been harmed in the accident. Locals tweeted ominous imagery of a Russian military helicopter landing and depositing Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CRBN) specialists in hazardous-material suits who evacuated injured personnel in stretchers. At least three testers were evacuated to the Moscow Federal Medical Biophysical Center, where two subsequently died from their injuries. Later, ten workers from a regional hospital involved in treating the injured were themselves reportedly flown to the Moscow center.A notice was issued to ships that they could not enter a 250-square kilometer area close to the accident. The Serebryanka—a nuclear fuel carrier likely modified to recover radioactive fragments from the ocean—remained in the area, having been present near the platform prior to the test.Not unrelatedly, twenty miles to the west, the major Russian shipyard city of Severodvinsk reported a spike in gamma radiation twenty times the norm around noon. Technically, this remained within safe limits, and by 4 p.m., radiation levels began to normalize.However, the radiation levels at Nyonoksa itself would surely have been of much higher—possibly releasing radionuclides into the atmosphere and drinking water that could increase cancer risk and cause other adverse health effects to those exposed.As reports of the accident circulated, Moscow claimed that it had been testing a "liquid fuel rocket." Rosatom then stated it was working on an "isotope power source in a liquid propulsion system."By then a consensus had emerged among Western experts that Russia had been testing a prototype Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, which is codenamed the SSC-X-9 "Skyfall" by NATO. The weapon was one of several developed to circumvent the United States' GMD anti-ballistic missile system, which Russia worries may undermine its nuclear deterrence despite GMD's limited capabilities.Putin had publicly unveiled the Burevestnik (which means "Petrel," a type of seabird)—in a video showing a successful launch in April 1, 2018, alongside several other exotic new strategic nuclear delivery systems. Theoretically, a cruise missile propelled by a nuclear-powered ramjet could travel at supersonic speeds out to practically unlimited range, skimming close to the earth and maneuvering around obstacles to evade long-range radars and air defense missiles.However, Putin's video didn't show numerous failed tests, or that even the successful launch in November 2017 had gone to crash in the sea after flying only twenty miles. That means Burevestnik's development is far from complete.A companion article on the Burevestnik details more on the missile's underlying strategic rationale, technical concept, and testing history, as well as a likely explanation for the accident on August 8.Fallout from a Failed TestUltimately the dead included five elite scientists of the Russian Rosatom nuclear energy agency and two military personnel. A special memorial service was held at Sarov, a closed city that's central to Russian nuclear research.Supposedly, the radiological event tied to the accident had been minor, and notices posted by regional officials were scrubbed from the internet. But locals were not convinced. In Severodvinsk and Arkhangelsk, demand for potassium iodide tablets, which reduce the thyroid gland's intake of radioactive substances, skyrocketed and several pharmacies were sold out.Then, as if the Russian state were keen to reenact historical events dramatized in the HBO series Chernobyl, four days after radiation levels were declared to have returned to normal, officials told Nyonoksa's approximately 450 residents they would be temporarily evacuated by train for a few hours as a "routine measure."Given that locals insisted radiation levels really were normal, this may actually have been intended to conceal the personnel, equipment and debris involved in the clean-up. But as the alarming news resounded on the internet, the government backtracked and canceled the evacuation. Despite Moscow's habitual obfuscation of the accident, internet social media made a coverup difficult to maintain.The deadly incident near Nyonoksa is merely the latest in a string of major military accidents in Russia including a titanic explosion at an ammunition dump on August 5 that injured six, a fire onboard the Losharik nuclear-powered spy submarine that killed fourteen, and the sinking of a huge floating drydock in Severodvinsk which nearly resulted in the loss of Russia's only aircraft carrier. As Moscow forges ahead with tests of additional experimental weapons for a looming nuclear arms race tied to the axing of key arms-control treaties, the potential for more such accidents is real.Sébastien Roblin holds a master's degree in conflict resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.Image: Wikimedia
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| Selfie Showdown: A Russian Pilot Filmed His Su-27 Overtaking a P-8A Poseidon Plane Posted: 17 Aug 2019 11:45 PM PDT  Moscow claims 26 foreign surveillance aircraft have been spotted by its forces near its airspace over the past seven days.Russia says it scrambled a Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighter jet to intercept a US Navy P-8A Poseidon that was flying close to the annexed territory of Crimea.As the videos in this post show the Flanker pilot used his mobile phone to record footage of the latest close encounter between US and Russia aircraft.(This first appeared earlier in 2019 and is being republished due to reader interest.)The Su-27 pilot is seen holding his phone in a reflection as he films the P-8 flying above his Flanker and then pans down to show land and water below.Russia's defense ministry said that the Poseidon changed course when it was intercepted by the Flanker.The US military has not yet commented on the claims.The Russian defense ministry said: "An Su-27 fighter jet as part of the Southern Military District's air defenses was scrambled to intercept the target."The crew flew the aircraft at a safe distance to the aerial target and identified it as a US P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance jet."The statement added that the US plane "immediately changed the direction of its flight to fly away from the Russian state border".Currently, US forces are participating in NATO's Sea Breeze naval drills in the Black Sea.The Russian Navy has its own "combat training" exercises in the Black Sea, reported Moscow media.As reported by Mirror, the Russian military newspaper Red Star claims Kremlin warplanes have been scrambled three times in the past week "to block foreign aircraft from illegally entering Russian airspace".Moscow claims 26 foreign surveillance aircraft have been spotted by its forces near its airspace over the past seven days.In mid-June, Su-27 fighter jets were scrambled to intercept U.S. Air Force (USAF) B-52strategic bombers approaching the Baltic and Black seas, claimed Moscow.Crimea is a disputed territory after Russia annexed the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 during the crisis in the former Soviet republic.Russia's control of Crimea, where its Black Sea Fleet is based, means it is able to control shipping flows through the Kerch Strait.In May last year, Putin opened a bridge between the Russian mainland and Crimea, tightening Moscow's hold over the territory.Moscow has backed a pro-Russia insurgency in eastern Ukraine in an armed conflict that has killed thousands.The UK Foreign Office warns holidaymakers on its website: "Russian forces and pro-Russian groups have established full operational control in Crimea."Following an illegal referendum on 16 March 2014, Russia illegally annexed Crimea on 21 March 2014 and tensions remain high."Britain's Foreign & Commonwealth Office currently advises against all travel to Crimea, in addition to Donetsk oblast and Luhansk oblast, where fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists has raged since April 2014.This first appeared in Aviation Geek Club here. Image: Creative Commons.
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| Here’s How Germany Could Boost Its Economy, If It Wants to Act Posted: 17 Aug 2019 11:00 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. Germany's economy is in trouble and the government is dithering over whether to provide support in the form of fiscal stimulus.The administration is under increasing pressure now that it's clear the economy shrank in the second quarter and the recession risk is growing. But politicians are opting to wait, given that the downside forces are largely external and it's not clear how deep the slump will be."If the manufacturing sector is in free-fall because your main trading partners are duking it out in a trade war, then obviously there is nothing you can do," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "You can help to make sure that your domestic economy stays strong, but it's not a clear story."The government has run a budget surplus for the past five years and cut its debt burden to the lowest since before the financial crisis, giving it room to spend. The administration is ready to run a deficit should the economy collapse, Der Spiegel reported on Friday.If Chancellor Angela Merkel is willing to break some taboos though, she could really loosen the purse strings, with consequences beyond the nation's borders.Controversy Without RewardUnless the economic situation becomes dire, the government has to play by its fiscal rules. Even if it scraps a commitment to keep the budget balanced, a constitutional debt brake limits the fiscal bang to 10 billion euros ($11 billion) at most, says Oliver Rakau at Oxford Economics.Suspending the law would allow the government to run a deficit of about 1.5% of gross domestic product before it violates European Union rules limiting public debt to 60% of GDP, according to ING economist Carsten Brzeski.In the PipelineFor the time being, Berlin's plans are staying put. The draft budget approved earlier this week doesn't foresee any new debt through at least 2021.At the same time, the government has already set aside more than 150 billion euros for infrastructure, education, housing and digital technology over the next four years. That provides Europe's largest economy with a boost of 0.4% of GDP and should be enough for now, reckons Berenberg economist Florian Hense."Obviously they have to be very careful as to how much external headwinds are spreading into the domestic economy," Hense said. "If unemployment is picking up then we might have an issue."Build BiggerWith its infrastructure in poor shape, Germany could think big and commit to higher investment for the next 15 to 20 years, according Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in Berlin. Germany is ranked highly in the overall global competitiveness index, but falls short in areas like road quality and internet connectivity.Such investment programs take longer to implement, but can have a bigger impact. They'd also give companies a reason to buy machinery and expand their capacity at a time when Germany is trying to transform itself in areas such as clean technology.Tax CutsChristian Schulz, an economist at Citigroup, says Germany could follow the U.K.'s example of 2008 and temporarily cut its sales tax to give consumption a boost. That could act as a "circuit-breaker" to prevent a deeper downturn.Or it could reduce social-security contributions for the poor. Income tax cuts -- the typical prescription advice Germany gets -- would backfire, Odendahl says, by depriving local governments of their lifeblood for investment.Cash for ClunkersFor a car-loving nation, the government could revisit its 2009 program of rebates for replacing older cars with more fuel-efficient models. As well as aiding a key industry -- one whacked by a diesel scandal and trade tensions -- the initiative would dovetail with the country's drive to accelerate the switch to more environmentally friendly energy sources.BlackoutThe government's "black zero" -- or balanced budget -- looks at risk. The hurdle for more aggressive spending is high though, and likely to remain so."There is a good chance that the black zero will be gone next year because growth assumptions for the budget are too optimistic," said Schulz at Citigroup. "Probably there will be a stimulus, but I'm skeptical on large numbers."To contact the reporter on this story: Piotr Skolimowski in Frankfurt at pskolimowski@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Fergal O'Brien, Jana RandowFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| A Cyberattack Could Wreak Destruction Comparable to a Nuclear Weapon Posted: 17 Aug 2019 09:30 PM PDT  People around the world may be worried about nuclear tensions rising, but I think they're missing the fact that a major cyberattack could be just as damaging – and hackers are already laying the groundwork.With the U.S. and Russia pulling out of a key nuclear weapons pact – and beginning to develop new nuclear weapons – plus Iran tensions and North Korea again test-launching missiles, the global threat to civilizationis high. Some fear a new nuclear arms race.That threat is serious – but another could be as serious, and is less visible to the public. So far, most of the well-known hacking incidents, even those with foreign government backing, have done little more than steal data. Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside U.S. power and water systems, where it's lying in wait, ready to be triggered. The U.S. military has also reportedly penetrated the computers that control Russian electrical systems.Many intrusions alreadyAs someone who studies cybersecurity and information warfare, I'm concerned that a cyberattack with widespread impact, an intrusion in one area that spreads to others or a combination of lots of smaller attacks, could cause significant damage, including mass injury and death rivaling the death toll of a nuclear weapon.Unlike a nuclear weapon, which would vaporize people within 100 feet and kill almost everyone within a half-mile, the death toll from most cyberattacks would be slower. People might die from a lack of food, power or gas for heat or from car crashes resulting from a corrupted traffic light system. This could happen over a wide area, resulting in mass injury and even deaths.This might sound alarmist, but look at what has been happening in recent years, in the U.S. and around the world.In early 2016, hackers took control of a U.S. treatment plant for drinking water, and changed the chemical mixture used to purify the water. If changes had been made – and gone unnoticed – this could have led to poisonings, an unusable water supply and a lack of water.In 2016 and 2017, hackers shut down major sections of the power grid in Ukraine. This attack was milder than it could have been, as no equipment was destroyed during it, despite the ability to do so. Officials think it was designed to send a message. In 2018, unknown cybercriminals gained access throughout the United Kingdom's electricity system; in 2019 a similar incursion may have penetrated the U.S. grid.In August 2017, a Saudi Arabian petrochemical plant was hit by hackers who tried to blow up equipment by taking control of the same types of electronics used in industrial facilities of all kinds throughout the world. Just a few months later, hackers shut down monitoring systems for oil and gas pipelines across the U.S. This primarily caused logistical problems – but it showed how an insecure contractor's systems could potentially cause problems for primary ones.The FBI has even warned that hackers are targeting nuclear facilities. A compromised nuclear facility could result in the discharge of radioactive material, chemicals or even possibly a reactor meltdown. A cyberattack could cause an event similar to the incident in Chernobyl. That explosion, caused by inadvertent error, resulted in 50 deaths and evacuation of 120,000 and has left parts of the region uninhabitable for thousands of years into the future.Mutual assured destructionMy concern is not intended to downplay the devastating and immediate effects of a nuclear attack. Rather, it's to point out that some of the international protections against nuclear conflicts don't exist for cyberattacks. For instance, the idea of "mutual assured destruction" suggests that no country should launch a nuclear weapon at another nuclear-armed nation: The launch would likely be detected, and the target nation would launch its own weapons in response, destroying both nations.Cyberattackers have fewer inhibitions. For one thing, it's much easier to disguise the source of a digital incursion than it is to hide where a missile blasted off from. Further, cyberwarfare can start small, targeting even a single phone or laptop. Larger attacks might target businesses, such as banks or hotels, or a government agency. But those aren't enough to escalate a conflict to the nuclear scale.Nuclear grade cyberattacksThere are three basic scenarios for how a nuclear grade cyberattack might develop. It could start modestly, with one country's intelligence service stealing, deleting or compromising another nation's military data. Successive rounds of retaliation could expand the scope of the attacks and the severity of the damage to civilian life.In another situation, a nation or a terrorist organization could unleash a massively destructive cyberattack – targeting several electricity utilities, water treatment facilities or industrial plants at once, or in combination with each other to compound the damage.Perhaps the most concerning possibility, though, is that it might happen by mistake. On several occasions, human and mechanical errors very nearly destroyed the world during the Cold War; something analogous could happen in the software and hardware of the digital realm.A cyberattack wouldn't be launched from a nuclear operator's console, like the one shown here from the decommissioned Oscar Zero site, but rather through cyberspace. A human might not even be required. Jeremy StraubDefending against disasterJust as there is no way to completely protect against a nuclear attack, there are only ways to make devastating cyberattacks less likely.The first is that governments, businesses and regular people need to secure their systems to prevent outside intruders from finding their way in, and then exploiting their connections and access to dive deeper.Critical systems, like those at public utilities, transportation companies and firms that use hazardous chemicals, need to be much more secure. One analysis found that only about one-fifth of companies that use computers to control industrial machinery in the U.S. even monitor their equipment to detect potential attacks – and that in 40% of the attacks they did catch, the intruder had been accessing the system for more than a year. Another survey found that nearly three-quarters of energy companies had experienced some sort of network intrusion in the previous year.But all those systems can't be protected without skilled cybersecurity staffs to handle the work. At present, nearly a quarter of all cybersecurity jobs in the U.S. are vacant, with more positions opening up than there are people to fill them. One recruiter has expressed concern that even some of the jobs that are filled are held by people who aren't qualified to do them. The solution is more training and education, to teach people the skills they need to do cybersecurity work, and to keep existing workers up to date on the latest threats and defense strategies.If the world is to hold off major cyberattacks – including some with the potential to be as damaging as a nuclear strike – it will be up to each person, each company, each government agency to work on its own and together to secure the vital systems on which people's lives depend.This article by Jeremy Straub originally appeared at The Conversation in 2019.Jeremy Straub is an Assistant Professor of Computer Science at North Dakota State University.Image: Wikipedia.
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| Top Chinese, North Korean generals meet in Beijing Posted: 17 Aug 2019 08:23 PM PDT ![Top Chinese, North Korean generals meet in Beijing]( "Top Chinese, North Korean generals meet in Beijing") Top military leaders from North Korea and China have recommitted themselves to strengthened exchanges between their armed forces during a meeting in Beijing. The meeting Saturday came as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised another test-firing of an unspecified new weapon, seen as an attempt to pressure Washington and Seoul over nuclear negotiations and joint military exercises. The official Xinhua News agency says Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, met Kim Su Kil, director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People's Army.
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| Russia's Nuclear-Powered ‘Skyfall’ Missile with Unlimited Range: A Doomsday Weapon? Posted: 17 Aug 2019 08:00 PM PDT  An explosion during a missile test on Russia's White Sea on August 8 that killed seven nuclear scientists and caused radiation levels to briefly spike in the region has drawn new attention to Moscow's development of exotic new weapons designed to deliver long-range strategic nuclear strikes.As reports of the accident circulated, Moscow claimed that it had been testing a "liquid fuel rocket." Rosatom, the state nuclear energy agency, then stated it was working on an "isotope power source in a liquid propulsion system."Convincing evidence has led to a consensus among foreign experts that missile being tested was likely a 9M730 Burevestnik ("Petrel," a seabird)—a prototype of a nuclear-powered cruise missile. Such a missile—if it can be made to work—would be powered by a very small nuclear reactor, allowing it to fly practically unlimited distances at very high speeds.Burevestnik's existence is no secret. In March 1 2018, Putin revealed as one of six new weapons under development by Russia—also including hypersonic missiles and intercontinental-range nuclear drone torpedoes.While a companion piece details the fallout from the deadly testing accident, this piece will seek to answer a simple question: why on earth is Russia seeking to develop such a peculiar and complicated weapon in the first place?Cruise Missiles to Fly Under an Anti-Ballistic Missile ShieldQuite simply, the pursuit of unconventional weapons like the Burevestnik stems from Russian fears that America's new anti-ballistic missile systems put Moscow's nuclear deterrence at risk. Intercontinental ballistic missiles fly extremely high and fast—but they are also highly visible to sensors and generally fly in a predictable trajectory. Using advanced sensors, the United States can potentially detect and shoot down a small number of ICBMs with the few dozen interceptors it has deployed. That's far too few interceptors to stop Moscow's hundreds of ballistic missiles, but Moscow is paranoid American defense will continue to improve.Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles skim close to surface, allowing them to hug terrain and maneuver around obstacles. These characteristics mean ground-based radars may only have a detection angle on cruise missiles when they're only a few dozen miles away. While defenses do exist that can potentially shootdown cruise missiles, the short detection range and interception windows would mean that it wouldn't be practical to create a huge defensive umbrellas like those provided by anti-ballistic systems.However, most cruise missiles simply can't pack enough fuel to fly thousands of miles on intercontinental attacks—and usually can't sustain speeds much faster than an airliner when traveling longer distances. A nuclear-powered cruise missile could—theoretically—have practically unlimited range, and sustain supersonic speeds, making it hard to intercept, and allowing it to circumnavigate bubbles of radar coverages and leverage terrain to minimize the chance of interception.The Russian claim that a "liquid-fuel" booster was being tested may not in fact be inaccurate. The most likely scheme for a nuclear-powered missile involves a ramjet engine, in which the reactor would heat onrushing air at speeds exceeding twice the speed of sound. This expanding heated air would be squeezed out the engine's rear nozzle, resulting in sustainable supersonic propulsion.However, conventional booster would be required for the missile to move fast enough for the ramjet to work. Therefore, The Drive's Joe Trevithick argues it's possible scientists were testing the robustness of the missile's reactor when exposed to the heat and physical stress caused by the rocket boosters—with explosive results.Another issue is that the Burevestnik's unshielded reactor core could potentially leave behind a trail of radioactive emissions and contaminants over everything it overflies. In fact, in the early 1960s, the United States' Project Pluto developed a nuclear ramjet-powered missile that was canceled in part due to concerns over its extreme radioactive pollution—though not before its designers considered whether its extreme radioactive emissions could be weaponized! The problem remained that the trail of sickness-inducing radiation would begin over friendly territory.Failed TestsWestern intelligence had already been keeping tabs on Skyfall prior to Putin's speech. Around a dozen tests have been held since 2016, first at Kapustin Yar (near Volgograd), then the Pan'kovo test site on Yuzhny island. Only two were successful. However, Pentagon snooping of the latter by WC-135 weather reconnaissance planes used to measure radiation may have led to the program's relocation to Nyonoksa, which is distant from international airspace.In the most successful test in November 2017, which can be seen in a video released by Putin, the Skyfall missile flew little more than twenty miles before crashing into the sea. The nuclear refueling ship Serebryanka, which was also present at the accident in August 8, was dispatched to recover the possibly irradiated debris. These results suggest the program is far from mature. Thus, Pranay Vaddi argues in a piece on Lawfare that Burevestnik should not have any impact on renewal of the New START Treaty regulating deployed strategic nuclear weapons, as it is unlikely to enter service in the next decade.Clearly, Russia is still far from solving the daunting challenges of developing a practical and functional nuclear-powered missile. Even if the Skyfall is eventually developed into an operational system, deploying dozens of strategic missiles each with their own miniature nuclear reactors would be extremely expensive and pose costly political, safety and security risks—as was amply demonstrated by the tragic incident on August 8.Sébastien Roblin holds a master's degree in conflict resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.Image: Flickr
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| British MPs press Johnson to recall parliament over Brexit Posted: 17 Aug 2019 06:26 PM PDT British Prime Minister Boris Johnson came under pressure Sunday to immediately recall lawmakers from their summer holiday so parliament can debate Brexit. More than 100 MPs have written to Johnson to urge him to reconvene and let them sit permanently until October 31 -- the date Britain is due to leave the European Union. "Our country is on the brink of an economic crisis, as we career towards a no-deal Brexit," said the letter, signed by MPs and opposition party leaders who want to halt Britain's departure from the EU.
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