| No coalition troops hurt in rocket attack at Iraq base Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:57 PM PST  A barrage of Katyusha rockets targeted an Iraqi air base that houses American troops south of the city of Mosul on Friday, officials said. The rocket fire appears to have originated in Mosul and struck the Iraqi army base in Qayyara, about 60 kilometers (38 miles) south of Mosul, where coalition forces are helping the Iraqis battle remnants of the Islamic State group, Iraqi security officials said. Iraqi officials did not immediately say whether there were any casualties, though a coalition spokeswoman later said no coalition troops had been injured.
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| Moody's downgrades Britain debt outlook to negative Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:40 PM PST  Credit ratings agency Moody's on Friday downgraded the outlook for Britain's debt, citing mounting policy challenges amid the Brexit debate. The ratings agency Fitch had similarly put Britain on "negative watch" in February. In addition, Britain's "economic and fiscal strength are likely to be weaker going forward and more susceptible to shocks than previously assumed," Moody's said in a statement.
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| UN experts say Libya airstrike likely tied to Hifter allies Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:36 PM PST ![UN experts say Libya airstrike likely tied to Hifter allies]( "UN experts say Libya airstrike likely tied to Hifter allies") U.N. experts say it is "highly probable" that a deadly airstrike on a migrant detention center in Libya was carried out by a fighter jet operated by a government supporting Khalifa Hifter, who launched an offensive in April trying to take the capital of Tripoli. The July 3 night attack on the detention center in Tajoura near Tripoli killed over 50 people and injured over 130 others. U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet has said the attack could amount to a war crime.
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| Impeachment inquiry: Fiona Hill tells lawmakers she's received death threats Posted: 08 Nov 2019 01:44 PM PST  Former top Russia expert at White House says harassment reached a peak after she agreed to testify in impeachment hearingsFiona Hill arrives for a closed door meeting as part of the House impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump on Capitol Hill in Washington, 4 November 2019. Photograph: Andrew Harnik/APThe former top Russia expert at the White House has said she has been subjected to a campaign of harassment and intimidation, including death threats, which reached a new peak after she agreed to testify in congressional impeachment hearings.Fiona Hill, who was the senior director for Europe and Russia in the National Security Council (NSC) said other NSC staff had been "hounded out" by threats against them, including antisemitic smears linking them to the liberal financier and philanthropist, George Soros, a hate figure on the far right.In her testimony to Congress, a full transcript of which was released on Friday, Hill described a climate of fear among administration staff.The UK-born academic and biographer of Vladimir Putin said that the former ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, was the target of a hate campaign, with the aim of driving her from her post in Kyiv, where she was seen as an obstacle to some corrupt business interests.Yovanovitch was recalled from Ukraine in May on Trump's orders. In a 25 July conversation with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Trump described Yovanovitch as "bad news" and predicted she was "going to go through some things". The former ambassador has testified she felt threatened by the remarks.Trump's lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, led calls for Yovanovitch's dismissal, as did two of Giuliani business associates, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman. All three are under scrutiny in hearings being held by House committees looking at Trump's use of his office to put pressure on the Ukrainian government to investigate his political opponents."There was no basis for her removal," Hill testified. "The accusations against her had no merit whatsoever. This was a mishmash of conspiracy theories that…I believe firmly to be baseless, an idea of an association between her and George Soros.""I had had accusations similar to this being made against me as well," Hill testified. "My entire first year of my tenure at the National Security Council was filled with hateful calls, conspiracy theories, which has started again, frankly, as it's been announced that I've been giving this deposition, accusing me of being a Soros mole in the White House, of colluding with all kinds of enemies of the president, and of various improprieties."She added that the former national security adviser, HR McMaster "and many other members of staff were targeted as well, and many people were hounded out of the National Security Council because they became frightened about their own security.""I received, I just have to tell you, death threats, calls at my home. My neighbours reported somebody coming and hammering on my door," Hill said, adding that she had also been targeted by obscene phone calls. "Now, I'm not easily intimidated, but that made me mad.""When I saw this happening to Ambassador Yovanovitch, I was furious," she said, pointing to "this whipping up of what is frankly an antisemitic conspiracy theory about George Soros to basically target nonpartisan career officials, and also some political appointees as well."In Yovanovitch's case, Hill said: "the most obvious explanation [for the smear campaign] seemed to be business dealings of individuals who wanted to improve their investment positions inside of Ukraine itself, and also to deflect away from the findings of not just the Mueller report on Russian interference but what's also been confirmed by your own Senate report, and what I know myself to be true as a former intelligence analyst and somebody who has been working on Russia for more than 30 years."Hill dismissed the suggestion that Ukraine meddled in the 2016 election was a "conspiracy theory" intended to distract attention from Russia's well-documented role.The treatment of Yovanovitch, Hill said "had a really devastating effect on the morale of all of the teams that I work with across the interagency because everybody knows Ambassador Yovanovitch to be the best of the best in terms of a nonpartisan career official.The former national security official, who resigned in July, said she thought that the fact that Yovanovitch was a woman in a high position also played a role in the attacks."I don't see always a lot of prominent women in these positions – she was the highest ranking woman diplomat," Hill said.
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| Expensive, Glitchy Voting Machines Expose 2020 Hacking Risks Posted: 08 Nov 2019 12:30 PM PST  (Bloomberg) -- The first sign something was wrong with Northampton County, Pennsylvania's state-of-the-art voting system came on Election Day when a voter called the local Democratic Party chairman to say a touchscreen in her precinct was acting "finicky." As she scrolled down the ballot, the tick-marks next to candidates she'd selected kept disappearing.Her experience Nov. 5 was no isolated glitch. Over the course of the day, the new election machinery, bought over the objections of cybersecurity experts, continued to malfunction. Built by Election Systems & Software, the ExpressVote XL was designed to marry touchscreen technology with a paper-trail for post-election audits. Instead, it created such chaos that poll workers had to crack open the machines, remove the ballot records and use scanners summoned from across state lines to conduct a recount that lasted until 5 a.m.In one case, it turned out a candidate that the XL showed getting just 15 votes had won by about 1,000. Neither Northampton nor ES&S know what went wrong.Digital voting machines were promoted in the wake of a similarly chaotic scene 19 years ago: the infamous punch-card ballots and hanging chads of south Florida that tossed the presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore into uncertainty.But now, the machinery that was supposed to be the solution has spawned a whole new controversy, this time with national security at stake—the prospect of foreign states disrupting American elections.Security experts say the cheapest, and to their minds, most reliable and hack-proof method to cast votes also happens to be the lowest tech: paper ballots marked by hand and fed through scanners (no chads) to tally the results. They have called for replacing computerized equipment—particularly paperless older models—with the decidedly Luddite alternative.The devices have "raised far more security questions than paper ballots because you have a potentially hackable computer standing between the voter and the record," said J. Alex Halderman, a computer science professor at the University of Michigan, adding that without sufficient research, these new machines could be "a waste of money."The switch to paper can't come soon enough, they fear, as election officials prepare for the first presidential election since Russia meddled in the 2016 race, hacking Democratic Party emails and targeting election systems in all 50 states, according to federal authorities. While there didn't appear to be any votes changed or election machines manipulated in that race, there's little doubt that U.S. adversaries will try again. "Russia, China, Iran and other foreign malicious actors all will seek to interfere in the voting process or influence voter perceptions," national security leaders including Attorney General William Barr said in joint statement on Nov. 5. Yet many state and local jurisdictions, like Northampton County, are buying a new generation of computerized voting machines ahead of the 2020 presidential election that security experts say are less secure and cost more—about $24 per voter, compared with $12 per voter in jurisdictions using a mix of the two systems, according to the University of Pittsburgh, which analyzed costs in Pennsylvania.After the failure in Northampton, ES&S apologized and assured voters that the results were accurate. "At this point, ES&S has not determined root cause of the reporting issue and is working closely with the state and county to conduct a thorough investigation, including a review of the machines," the Omaha-based company said.Cybersecurity experts are baffled by local election officials choosing the computerized voting machines. "It's a mystery to me," said Rich DeMillo, a Georgia Tech computer science professor and former Hewlett-Packard chief technology officer. "Does someone have 8 x 10 glossies? No one has been able to figure out the behavior of elections officials. It's like they all drink the same Kool-Aid." The animus is mutual. At conferences, election administrators swap complaints about cyber experts treating them like idiots, said Dana DeBeauvoir, head of elections in Travis County, Texas, whose office purchased a computerized system DeMillo deplores. Hand-marked ballots are "a supremely horrible idea" cooked up by people in Washington "who have never had to really conduct an election," she said.Election machines are just one way hackers could try to infiltrate an election to change the vote or undermine its credibility. They also could corrupt voter registration rolls or lock up the computers of voting officials with ransomware. Only in the case of voting machines, though, does the safest technology also happen to be simpler and cheaper."These elaborate election systems benefit companies' bottom line far more than the taxpayers and voters paying for them"It's an argument that has barely budged the voting-machinery market. By 2020, the use of paper ballots with scanners is set to increase by about 2% since the last presidential election, while devices with a touch-screen component have dropped .2% across precincts, according to data compiled by the Verified Voting Foundation, a non-profit focused on election transparency and best practices.Paper ballots are marked with a writing utensil before being fed into a scanner. The more expensive ballot-marking devices use touchscreens to produce a paper record that the voter may review before putting into a scanner for tabulation. Neither method is entirely safe, as the scanner tallying paper ballots could be breached. But cybersecurity experts argue that the computerized model is riskier, because a hacked or buggy ballot marker could contaminate the paper record needed to audit results. A voter marking a ballot by hand could spoil his own but no one else's. With ballot computers, it's up to the voter to catch and report errors in the receipt, and many don't do that, according to a study DeMillo published in December. If authorities find a machine is at fault, the only fix is a new election, because the paper record is ruined. In a report on Russian election meddling, the Senate Intelligence Committee voiced support for paper ballots and optical scanners, calling them "the least vulnerable to cyber attack."Winning over the nation's election administrators to that point of view is no simple task. They are splintered among thousands of state and local governments and often lobbied by privately held election companies anxious for sales, as taxpayers tend to pay for new voting equipment only once a decade.Decision makers include state officials in some states and local ones in most. Some of those officials have other duties, like approving zoning permits and marriage licenses or, in Texas, cattle brands. Some have technical expertise. Some do not.Familiarity, practicality, professional relationships and campaign money compete with security concerns when purchasing decisions are made. "These elaborate election systems benefit companies' bottom line far more than the taxpayers and voters paying for them"In Philadelphia, a three-person election commission discounted cybersecurity warnings and, in February, selected ExpressVote XL from ES&S after a massive lobbying effort. It has a 32-inch touchscreen at a cost of $29 million, or $27.59 per voter, not including roughly $3.8 million over 10 years in fees.But the decision raised suspicions. State Auditor General Eugene DePasquale noted that the request for proposals appeared to favor equipment of the XL's type and size. An investigation by City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart later found that ES&S had courted the tiny commission for six years, spending almost half a million dollars lobbying it. The company paid a $2.9 million penalty—the highest in Philadelphia history—for failing to disclose lobbying on bid documents, according to the city controller's office.The company acknowledged that it erred by failing to register its lobbyists, saying it was due to a flawed interpretation of the city's procurement provisions. But the company's "inadvertent omission in no way impacted the RFP process," according to an ES&S statement on Aug. 15.Asked this week about the relative security of the hand-marked or computer-marked ballots, an ES&S spokeswoman said they are both very secure. "In either instance, votes are counted via technology, and both use human-readable paper records for audit purposes," Katina Granger said in an emailed statement in which she noted that computer ballot markers also are easier for the disabled to use.In North Carolina, the state elections board initially decided against allowing counties to buy digital-voting machines like ExpressVote after hearing arguments "that simpler is better and that hand-marked paper ballots were the gold standard," said board member Stella Anderson. Then one member asked to change his vote, and a second quit in an uproar after making an offensive joke in a speech.The new state elections chairman, Damon Circosta, replaced him. In August, he cast the deciding vote certifying ES&S's ExpressVote and later said many voters prefer the familiarity of touchscreens. "The challenge we have with the cyber advocates who are laser focused on the ballot-marking devices is that they can't see the forest for the trees," Circosta said in an interview. After last week's fiasco in Northampton, opponents of the county's decision to buy the ExpressVote system were saying I told you so. "The local elections administrators just fell in love with these machines," said Deb Hunter, a school teacher who served on the board that selected the XL system from ES&S, the dominant player in the industry. She had pushed for hand-marked paper ballots. "This administration just railroaded this." ES&S and several other manufacturers said they aren't in the business of telling election administrators what to buy but rather are simply offering options of varying price ranges and technological abilities. Some favor the more expensive electronic models because voters are comfortable with using a touchscreen, they said.Computer-voting's defenders say there's never been proof hacking has altered an election's result, which is true, and that computers can't be compromised if not connected to the internet, which is not. They also note that the systems all but eliminate human error by not allowing voters to mark more than one candidate in a race, for instance. (Modern scanners also reject such 'overvotes' on hand-marked ballots.)David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation & Research in Washington, argued that the machines are safe and that complaints "are more heat than light, fueled by activism and anger and social media."But Susan Greenhalgh, vice president at the National Election Defense Coalition, said too many election officials have been convinced by vendors and colleagues that spending more money and deploying more technology will result in a better, safer election."That isn't always true," said Greenhalgh, whose group advocates for better election security. "These elaborate election systems benefit companies' bottom line far more than the taxpayers and voters paying for them."In Northampton, election officials said the silver lining was that the system allowed the flawed initial results to be checked.But the paper record they're counting on isn't reliable, said Philip Stark, a University of California-Berkeley statistics professor who invented the kind of post-election audit that security experts say is needed. "There's no reason to believe that the paper trail generated by the XL accurately reflects voters' selections," he said.Northampton Republicans are no less skeptical. Lee Snover, the local party chairwoman, said the results can't be trusted and the experience has shaken voters' trust going into 2020. "We think voters were disenfranchised," she said. "I actually supported these machines, but I had no idea they could be so flawed. I think we were better off the old-fashioned way."In another echo of Bush v. Gore, local Republicans sent for investigators from the Republican National Committee: The party is considering a lawsuit against the county and ES&S, which has apologized for the snafu.The only solution, Snover said, is to conduct another election with—wait for it—punch-card paper ballots.To contact the authors of this story: Kartikay Mehrotra in San Francisco at kmehrotra2@bloomberg.netMargaret Newkirk in Atlanta at mnewkirk@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Martin at amartin146@bloomberg.net, Flynn McRobertsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| US wants UN to take up Dalai Lama succession: envoy Posted: 08 Nov 2019 12:08 PM PST  The United States wants the United Nations to take up the Dalai Lama's succession in an intensifying bid to stop China from trying to handpick his successor, an envoy said after meeting the Tibetan spiritual leader. Sam Brownback, the US ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom, said he spoke at length about the succession issue with the 84-year-old Dalai Lama last week in the monk's home-in-exile of Dharamsala, India. "I would hope that the UN would take the issue up," Brownback told AFP after returning to Washington.
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| UN experts: 'Brutal' prison killed Egyptian ex-president Posted: 08 Nov 2019 11:39 AM PST ![UN experts: 'Brutal' prison killed Egyptian ex-president]( "UN experts: 'Brutal' prison killed Egyptian ex-president") U.N. rights experts say Egypt's ex-President Mohammed Morsi endured "brutal" prison conditions that contributed to his death in custody. Morsi, Egypt's first democratically elected president, was from the Islamist, now outlawed Muslim Brotherhood.
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| Pompeo warns China's treatment of civilians 'horrifyingly similar' to East Germany on eve of Berlin Wall anniversary Posted: 08 Nov 2019 10:56 AM PST  US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has warned against the threat posed by Russia and China and called for Nato to grow on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Speaking in Germany, Mr Pompeo warned that 21st century authoritarianism posed a threat equal to that seen during the Cold War. "The Chinese communist party is shaping a new vision of authoritarianism, one the world has not seen for an awfully long time. It uses methods to suppress its own people that would be horrifyingly familiar to former East Germans," Mr Pompeo told an audience in Berlin, speaking just a few metres away from where the wall ran past the German capital's world-famous Brandenburg Gate. The Secretary of State also fired off a broadside against Moscow, saying: "Russia, led by a former KGB officer based in Dresden, invades its neighbours and slays political opponents." He also responded to French President Emmanuel Macron's comments earlier in the week that Nato was suffering "brain death" due to Washington "turning its back" on its European partners - comments German leader Angela Merkel described as "drastic". Stressing that "we can never take ... things for granted", Mr Pompeo said the 70-year-old alliance too "runs the risk that it will become obsolete" if leaders failed to tackle new challenges. Dismissing the debate around Macron's comments as "kerfuffle," Mr Pompeo acknowledged that "NATO needs to grow and change, it needs to confront the realities of today and the challenges today." "The United States and its allies should "defend what was so hard-won... in 1989" and "recognise we are in a competition of values with unfree nations," he added. Relations between Berlin and Washington have been severely strained since Donald Trump became US President in 2016, with Mr Trump and Chancellor Angela Merkel often trading barbs on issues such as immigration and racism. Throughout the speech Mr Pompeo sought to emphasise the common values that unite the two allies. "If you don't lead [in the world], if America doesn't lead, who will?" he asked. Meanwhile, President Trump has said he is weighing up an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow. "I appreciate the invitation," Trump told reporters on Friday. "It is right in the middle of political season, so I'll see if I can do it, but I would love to go if I could." The event commemorates the May 1945 Allied victory over Nazi Germany. Russia uses the annual parade to show off its military might. Trump said the event, which next year marks the 75th anniversary of the victory, was "a very big deal."
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| Turkish patrol kills Syrian protester amid shaky truce Posted: 08 Nov 2019 10:09 AM PST  A Syrian protester was killed after a Turkish military vehicle ran him over on Friday as it drove through an angry crowd protesting a joint Turkish-Russian patrol in northeastern Syria, Kurdish forces and a Syria war monitoring group said. The fatal incident reflects the increasingly complicated political geography in northern Syria in the wake of U.S. decision to pull its troops away from the border and redeploy them further south. The decision earlier this month was followed by a Turkish invasion in northeastern Syria and a series of deals between Turkey and Russia, as well as between the Syrian government in Damascus and U.S. allies, the Kurdish-led forces.
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| Iraqi spiritual leader warns of 'great risks' from protests Posted: 08 Nov 2019 09:55 AM PST  Iraq's most senior Shiite cleric urged political leaders Friday to find a way out of the current cycle of anti-government protests and a subsequent security crackdown that has left more than 250 people dead, saying the country faces "great risks" if it continues. The protests continued to spread, with tens of thousands of people in the streets of Baghdad and across the largely Shiite south demanding sweeping political change. Demonstrators in the capital set up tents for a sit-in that extended to new streets and onto the banks of the Tigris River.
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| UN experts call Morsi's death in Egypt 'arbitrary killing' Posted: 08 Nov 2019 09:20 AM PST  An independent panel of United Nations experts said Friday the death of former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi in June could amount to "a state-sanctioned arbitrary killing". "Morsi was held in conditions that can only be described as brutal, particularly during his five-year detention in the Tora prison complex," a statement said. Egypt's first democratically elected civilian president Morsi died in June after collapsing in a Cairo courtroom while on trial.
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| Iran downs unidentified drone that 'infiltrated' near Gulf coast: reports Posted: 08 Nov 2019 08:58 AM PST  Iran shot down an unidentified drone that "infiltrated" near Bandar-e Mahshahr port on the Gulf coast Friday, Iranian media reported, after the downing of a US drone nearly triggered air strikes earlier this year. Relevant units acted "in response to a violation of our airspace by a drone (that) infiltrated", IRIBNEWS reported, citing Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard, commander in chief of aerial defence. "The drone was shot down before it could reach sensitive sites thanks to the great vigilance of our unified aerial defence system," he said.
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| Netanyahu appoints hard-liner Bennett as defense minister Posted: 08 Nov 2019 08:42 AM PST ![Netanyahu appoints hard-liner Bennett as defense minister]( "Netanyahu appoints hard-liner Bennett as defense minister") Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday appointed hard-line politician Naftali Bennett as defense minister in his caretaker government. The move appears aimed at shoring up opposition to attempts by Netanyahu's chief rival, Benny Gantz, to form Israel's next government. Ayelet Shaked of Bennett's New Right party, a former justice minister, confirmed that the party has accepted the defense portfolio for Bennett.
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| UN court says it has jurisdiction in Ukraine-Russia case Posted: 08 Nov 2019 08:35 AM PST  In a legal victory for Kyiv, the United Nations' highest court ruled Friday that it has jurisdiction in a case brought by Ukraine alleging that Russia breached treaties on terrorist financing and racial discrimination in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. The decision by the International Court of Justice means the case, which opened a new legal front in the strained relationship between Russia and Ukraine, will go ahead. Ukraine's deputy minister for foreign affairs, Olena Zerkal, flashed a victory sign as she walked out of the court to speak to reporters.
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| Trump says he might attend Russian military celebration Posted: 08 Nov 2019 08:35 AM PST ![Trump says he might attend Russian military celebration]( "Trump says he might attend Russian military celebration") President Donald Trump said Friday that he's considering accepting Vladimir Putin's invitation to attend Russia's military parade celebration in May, but that the 2020 campaign season might get in the way. "President Putin invited me," Trump told reporters on the White House lawn. Putin earlier this year invited Trump to attend Russia's Victory Day festivities, which commemorate the Soviet Union's triumph in World War II and are a celebration of Russian military might.
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| Boris Johnson Sows Confusion Over Northern Irish Trade After Brexit Posted: 08 Nov 2019 08:29 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.Prime Minister Boris Johnson's comments in Northern Ireland, filmed on a mobile phone and released on Twitter, seemingly contradict what his own government has said about the Brexit deal he negotiated. What's going on?The BackgroundPoliticians in Northern Ireland are worried the deal creates a border between them and Great Britain, the island that makes up most of the United Kingdom. And businesses in Northern Ireland are worried that goods will be subject to new checks as they cross the Irish Sea.Johnson's claim that there will be no checks puts him at odds with his own Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay -- who had to go to Parliament last month to clarify the prime minister's policy.Goods Going From GB to NI: What Johnson Said"There will not be checks on goods going from GB to NI that are not going on to Ireland. That's the whole point."Goods Going From GB to NI: What Barclay Said"Goods that are not at risk of moving to the European Union will attract no tariffs. Goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland that are destined for the European Union will have to comply with European Union rules. To ensure that the correct tariffs are applied and that goods comply with the rules of the single regulatory zone, some information will be needed on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland."Sam Lowe, trade researcher at the Center for European Reform, said the effect of the deal is to place the EU's external border in the Irish Sea. "There will be checks," he said.Goods Going from NI to GB: What Johnson Said"The great thing that people have misunderstood about this is that there will not be checks -- I say this as prime minister of the U.K. and a passionate unionist -- there will not be checks on goods going from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. Because we're the government of the U.K. and we will not institute or implement or enact such checks."Goods Going from NI to GB: What Barclay Said"The deal also explicitly allows the U.K. to ensure unfettered market access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. There will be minimal targeted interventions."According to Lowe, what those checks will look like is a live question. "There are certain obligations we will have to meet. Businesses will have to make exit declarations. But there might be flexibility in how that's done. We're in a unique situation, where the U.K. is the regulator on both sides of the border. So it's conceivable that we could find a different way of doing that."So Really, No Checks?Challenged by a member of his audience, who said he'd been told his staff would have to fill in forms, Johnson gave this commitment:"If somebody asks you to do that, tell them to ring up the prime minister, and I will direct them to throw that form in the bin. There will be no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind. You will have unfettered access."Is that really right? Lowe was skeptical. "He's giving massively big assurances without any detail about how it would work," he said.\--With assistance from Greg Ritchie and Thomas Penny.To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Edward Evans, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| For east Syria, US troops are about much more than oil Posted: 08 Nov 2019 08:20 AM PST  As U.S. troops beef up in eastern Syria to protect oil fields, residents hope their mission will bring stability and prosperity to the remote and resource-rich region —and keep the Syrian government out. The stretches of Syria east of the Euphrates, where the oil is located, have been lost to the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad for most of the country's eight-year civil war.
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| Reports: Iran downs 'unknown' drone over Persian Gulf port Posted: 08 Nov 2019 07:55 AM PST ![Reports: Iran downs 'unknown' drone over Persian Gulf port]( "Reports: Iran downs 'unknown' drone over Persian Gulf port") Iran's air defense force has shot down an "unknown" drone in the country's southwest, the official IRNA news agency reported on Friday. The agency said that Iranian air defense forces hit the drone in the early morning at the port city of Mahshahr, which is in the oil-rich Khuzestan province and lies on the Persian Gulf. The provincial governor, Gholamreza Shariati, told IRNA that the drone belonged to a "foreign" country and that parts of it had been recovered in a nearby lagoon.
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| Tories Get Nervous as Chaos Hits Johnson’s U.K. Election Train Posted: 08 Nov 2019 07:47 AM PST ![Tories Get Nervous as Chaos Hits Johnson's U.K. Election Train]( "Tories Get Nervous as Chaos Hits Johnson's U.K. Election Train") (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.Just after 9 p.m. on Wednesday, half the British cabinet were marooned on a cold railway platform 114 miles northwest of London.Along with thousands of other passengers, senior ministers including Michael Gove, Liz Truss and Steve Barclay trudged through Birmingham International Station trying to make sense of the cancellations and delays as they searched for a working train to take them home.It was a chaotic end to a day of blunders that had damaged Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives as they launched their campaign for votes in the Dec. 12 general election. Senior party officials now fear their campaign is poorly organized and falling flat, and worry many more missteps will let opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn into power.Britain's Election Gamble -- What You Need to Know: QuickTakeJohnson triggered the early election because he could not get his Brexit deal ratified in Parliament. Opposition parties refused to allow him to rush his agreement into law, then blocked his backup plan to take the country out of the European Union without a deal at the end of October.Eventually a humiliated prime minister was forced to accept a three-month Brexit delay -- despite repeatedly promising he would never do so.Johnson argued that an obstructive Parliament -- where his ruling Tory party lacked a majority -- must be replaced, and finally persuaded MPs to give him the election he craved to break the deadlock. Now he's appealing to voters to return him to power with a majority so he can "get Brexit done" and move on to other priorities, including investing in schools, the police and health service.Self-Inflicted DamageBut the Tories spent Wednesday -- the first official day of campaigning -- battling to contain self-inflicted damage. Senior officials fought to protect cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg from calls to resign, after he suggested 72 people killed in a tower-block fire in 2017 hadn't shown "common sense."By lunchtime, another cabinet minister, Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns, quit over a scandal that stemmed from a collapsed rape trial. It was the first time a minister had been forced to resign from cabinet in the middle of an election campaign for at least 100 years.In Birmingham on Wednesday evening, Johnson tried to get his campaign back on track. Cabinet ministers swelled the audience of hundreds of activists in the National Exhibition Centre, next to the station, watching the barnstorming speech. He was aided by the fact Labour was suffering its own problems with the resignation of deputy leader Tom Watson."What you have seen is an electric start to our campaign, in terms of a prime minister selling his vision," Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said when asked about the setbacks. That vision hinges on getting Brexit done. "To deliver Britain's exit from the European Union, he needs to have a working majority," Williamson said in an interview.Daily FrustrationsYet the railway chaos that caught out the cabinet held a double irony -- not only was the Tory campaign running similarly off schedule, but the leaders of the party branded "out of touch" by opponents were suddenly facing frustrations that form part of daily life for many travelers in Britain.On the overcrowded platform, the stranded ministers allowed several slow, stopping services to pass through before piling onto a packed express train to London. They had to take whichever seats were free.The British railways were privatized by the Tories in the 1990s, and Corbyn wants to nationalize the network again. It's populist policies like this -- and the promise of huge spending on public services -- that are likely to secure Labour support from voters who are fed up with a decade of austerity.Dueling Chancellors Send U.K. Spending Pledges Through the RoofIn 2017, Labour's radical manifesto transformed Corbyn from an opposition leader who was written off by some as a joke to a popular left wing hero who almost took power, winning 40% of the vote.Tory FearsPrivately, some of the Conservative party's most senior and experienced officials fear the veteran Labour leader could repeat the trick, even though his party is mired in infighting and allegations of antisemitism. Speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive, one said Johnson won't win a majority if the party continues to make blunders.Another said the party still has a huge task to explain why an election is needed now, given the last one was in 2017 and the next wasn't due until 2022.Voters want to move on from Brexit, so focusing on it is risky for Johnson. It's also an area that's ripe for missteps. When a video emerged late Thursday of the prime minister explaining the implications of his divorce deal for Northern Irish trade, opposition parties said he sounded like he was making the case for staying in the EU.And while Johnson is promising to deliver the divorce quickly and then focus on domestic priorities, Corbyn's campaign is already concentrating on the policies voters care about -- the National Health Service, housing, childcare and wages. That's a calculation that is worrying Tory officials.It's early days in a highly unpredictable election, but the fear for Conservatives is that while Johnson talks about moving on from Brexit, it's Corbyn who looks as though he already has.(Adds detail on Labour in paragraph after 'Tory Fears' crosshead.)To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iran downs unidentified drone that 'infiltrated' near Gulf coast: reports Posted: 08 Nov 2019 07:29 AM PST Iran shot down an unidentified drone that "infiltrated" near Bandar-e Mahshahr port on the Gulf coast Friday, Iranian media reported, after the downing of a US drone nearly triggered air strikes earlier this year. Relevant units acted "in response to a violation of our airspace by a drone (that) infiltrated", IRIBNEWS reported, citing Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard, commander in chief of aerial defence. "The drone was shot down before it could reach sensitive sites thanks to the great vigilance of our unified aerial defence system," he said.
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| Labour Rejects 2020 Scottish Independence Referendum: U.K. Votes Posted: 08 Nov 2019 06:55 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- The U.K.'s political parties are focusing on domestic issues, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson announcing new post-Brexit visas to fast-track foreign staff for the National Health Service, and Labour unveiling measures to improve working conditions for women.The Scottish National Party launched its campaign with a promise to block the state-run health care system from being included in any future trade deal with the U.S.. Labour rebuffed the SNP's call for a referendum on independence in 2020 as the price for putting Jeremy Corbyn into power.Key Developments:Prime Minister Boris Johnson is campaigning in Wales, as is Brexit Party leader Nigel FarageSNP promises second referendum on Scottish independenceLiberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson visits marginal seat of North East Fife, which the SNP won by just two votes in 2017BBC announced further TV debates on Nov. 29 and Dec. 6Labour Rule Out 2020 Scottish Referendum (2 p.m.)Keir Starmer, Labour's Brexit spokesman, rebuffed Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon's demand for a 2020 referendum on Scottish independence as the price for helping put Jeremy Corbyn into power if he fails to win a clear majority (see 11:30 a.m.)."We are not in this to do anything other than win and we are not doing deals," Starmer told Sky News. Asked if he could rule out an independence referendum next year, he said "yes, we are not in this to do deals."Corbyn said in August he would not support a new Scottish referendum in "the formative years" of a Labour government.BBC to Host Johnson-Corbyn Debate on Dec. 6 (12:35 p.m.)The BBC said it will host a debate between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and main opposition Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn in Southampton on Dec. 6 -- six days before the general election.The broadcaster will also hold what it called a "seven-way podium debate" among "senior figures" from the major political parties on Nov. 29 in Cardiff.Televised debates -- and the question of which parties are invited to take part -- are already proving controversial. Nicola Sturgeon has threatened to take legal action against Sky News for excluding her Scottish National Party from its proposed debate between Johnson, Corbyn and Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson on Nov. 28. Swinson herself has objected to her exclusion from ITV's planned Johnson-Corbyn debate on Nov. 19.Sturgeon: Scotland's 'Fundamental' Choice (11:30 a.m.)Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland faces a "fundamental choice" at the Dec. 12 election: Vote SNP "to escape Brexit.""A vote for the SNP is a vote to take Scotland's future out of the hands of Boris Johnson and a broken Westminster system," Sturgeon said at the SNP's election campaign launch in Edinburgh. Her party will pursue a referendum on Scottish independence next year, she said. The last one was held in 2014.In comments that will have implications if the general election results in no party having a majority, Sturgeon ruled out backing any government unless it offers Scotland a plebiscite. And she suggested Jeremy Corbyn would support one. The Labour leader "supports self-determination for virtually every other country in the world," she said. "It would be mighty strange if he didn't support it for Scotland."Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, also pledged to introduce a new law to protect the state-run National Health Service from inclusion in any trade deal with the U.S. It would mean the Scottish Parliament and other devolved legislatures would have to give their explicit consent, she said.Johnson Says NHS Not for Sale Under Tories (11 a.m.)In a pooled interview with broadcasters, Boris Johnson denied the U.K.'s state-run National Health Service would be up for negotiation in any future trade deal with the U.S."We can do free trade deals with countries around the world but under us the NHS is not for sale," Johnson said. "It's not going to be on any kind of international trade negotiation."The U.K.'s health service is always a key election issue but it's significance is heightened this time because of Brexit, and the government's promise to negotiate a free-trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. That's increased concerns the NHS could come under threat from U.S. health insurers and drug companies.Johnson's Brexit Analysis Provides Opposition Fodder (10 a.m.)Even as Boris Johnson's Conservatives try to put the attention on the National Health Service and other domestic issues on Friday, a video of the prime minister explaining the benefits of his Brexit deal to Northern Ireland is dominating the early headlines.In a rambling speech, recorded at a meeting of local Conservatives in Northern Ireland, Johnson said the province got a "great deal" because it keeps freedom of movement with the European Union and access to the bloc's single market.Such comments are a gift to Tory opponents, particularly the pro-EU Liberal Democrats. Tom Brake, the party's Brexit spokesman, responded on Twitter: "I do agree on one point: the Single Market and freedom of movement are indeed a great deal - even @BorisJohnson recognizes this."Meanwhile the Labour Party criticized Johnson for distorting the terms of his Brexit deal with Brussels when he told the audience there would be no checks on goods coming from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. The government has previously conceded some checks will be necessary on goods traveling in both directions."Boris Johnson either doesn't understand the deal he has negotiated or he isn't telling the truth. Probably both," Labour's Brexit spokesman, Keir Starmer, said on Twitter.Earlier:Corbyn's U.K. Labour Party Is a Mess But Can Still Win PowerU.K.'s Johnson Pledges New Post-Brexit Visas for Doctors, NursesJohnson, Corbyn Unveil Voter-Pleasing Plans: U.K. Campaign Trail\--With assistance from Robert Hutton.To contact the reporters on this story: Stuart Biggs in London at sbiggs3@bloomberg.net;Greg Ritchie in London at gritchie10@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Thomas Penny, Stuart BiggsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UK election boosts hopes of pro-independence Scottish party Posted: 08 Nov 2019 06:12 AM PST  The Scottish National Party launched its campaign for Britain's Dec. 12 election on Friday, urging Scots to send its lawmakers to London in order to bring Scotland a step closer to independence. The party currently holds 35 of Scotland's 59 House of Commons seats, and hopes discontent about Brexit will boost that number. In Britain's 2016 referendum on European Union membership, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the 28-nation bloc.
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| China Issues Death Penalty for Shipping Opioid to U.S. Posted: 08 Nov 2019 05:28 AM PST  XINGTAI, China -- A court in China convicted and sentenced to death Thursday a man accused of trafficking fentanyl to the United States after a joint investigation with U.S. law enforcement agencies.The case, involving nine defendants, was a rare example of cooperation against a surge in fentanyl-related deaths that American officials, including President Donald Trump, have blamed directly on China's lax enforcement and even complicity in fueling a drug epidemic on U.S. streets.The man sentenced to death, Liu Yong, led an illicit network of labs that produced and shipped packages of fentanyl to American users who placed orders online through a dealer simply known as "Diana," according to the Chinese and American officials.A judge in Xingtai, a city in Hebei province about 220 miles south of Beijing, sentenced Liu to death after detailing a broad conspiracy to manufacture and smuggle fentanyl that evaded China's strict controls on pharmaceutical production.Liu's death sentence was suspended for two years, leaving open the possibility that it could be commuted to life in prison. Eight other co-defendants were also sentenced, including distributors and online sellers. They received sentences ranging from six months in prison to life.The case started with an arrest by the Drug Enforcement Administration in New Orleans in August 2017, leading to an international investigation into a sprawling underground production network that prosecutors said Liu orchestrated.The network included one lab and two distribution centers in Shanghai and the neighboring province, Jiangsu. They were shut down, and 12 kilograms, or about 26 pounds, of fentanyl was seized as part of the investigation, according to the officials and the court's ruling."The successful outcome of this case, especially the heavy sentences to the main criminals and others, fully demonstrates the position and determination of the Chinese government to severely punish fentanyl-related crimes," Yu Haibin, deputy director of China's National Narcotics Control Commission, said at a news conference in Xingtai after the court's sentencing hearing.He was joined by diplomats from the U.S. Embassy, underscoring China's eagerness to show it was cooperating with U.S. law enforcement to combat the fentanyl scourge. Many officials in the United States have accused China of abetting the trade.Austin Moore, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement official working in the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, attended the sentencing along with other American diplomats and afterward welcomed the Chinese cooperation in the case, which he said had also resulted in arrests and indictments in New York and Oregon."I have one more thing to say to those who make it their business to spread illegal narcotics," he said at the news conference. "We make it our business to find you, arrest you and hold you accountable for your crimes."Moore said the United States looked forward to greater collaboration as the Chinese government enforces a decision to classify all variants of fentanyl as controlled substances subject to strict enforcement.That legal change, which China's leader, Xi Jinping, promised to Trump last year, closed a loophole in the country's laws that allowed manufacturers here to make precursors or slight variations of fentanyl that were not explicitly banned in China.As anger rose in the United States over Chinese complicity in the epidemic, the Chinese have complained that they have been unfairly blamed for a problem that stems from pervasive drug abuse.Yu, sitting beside Moore in a hotel ballroom, reiterated that view Thursday. He noted that overdose deaths in the United States had continued to rise even as China intensified its cooperation with U.S. law enforcement agencies and tightened its own export controls.He cited U.S. statistics showing that customs officials had seized 536 kilograms of fentanyl since October 2018 but that only 5.87 kilograms of that came from China."This data does not support that China is the main source of fentanyl substances in the United States," he said.The sentencing Thursday comes as aides to Xi and Trump try to finalize an interim deal in the trade war. The cooperation on display could help smooth the way.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| Rising Risk of Impeachment Tests Ties Between Barr and the President Posted: 08 Nov 2019 05:26 AM PST  WASHINGTON -- For a while at least, he seemed to have found his Roy Cohn, a lawyer to defend him against his accusers and go after his enemies. But the relationship between President Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr may be growing more complicated with the rising threat of impeachment.Rather than publicly join the fight against House Democrats pursuing the president, Barr has remained out of the fray, resisting requests by intermediaries from Trump to go before the cameras to say no crime had been committed. While Barr exonerated the president in the spring at the end of the Russia investigation, he has been more reticent in the current matter.The reluctance hints at a new distance between the two men, according to people who have spoken with them. Trump, angry with his coverage, is aggravated with Barr for urging him to release a reconstructed transcript of the telephone call with Ukraine's president at the center of the impeachment drive. For his part, Barr was bothered that Trump on that call lumped him together with Rudy Giuliani, the president's private lawyer, like interchangeable parts of his personal defense team.The two remain on much better terms than Trump was with his first attorney general, Jeff Sessions, whom he repeatedly berated in public for not protecting him from the Russia investigation and eventually fired. The president has given Barr extensive leeway and largely deferred to his judgment. Barr has spoken with pride about how much Trump relies on him and treats him as a confidant.But the impeachment debate seems to be testing those ties as House Democrats investigate whether Trump committed high crimes and misdemeanors by using his office to pressure Ukraine to provide incriminating information about former Vice President Joe Biden and other Democrats. The Justice Department concluded there was no campaign finance violation, but Barr has not gone beyond that."The easiest read of this is, yes, there's a limit," said Harry Litman, who served as a deputy assistant attorney general under President Bill Clinton. "Yes, he will push the envelope, but if it's not plausible to say there's no crime, he won't do it."Trump on Thursday angrily denied a report in The Washington Post, which was confirmed by The New York Times, that he wanted Barr to hold a news conference to say that the president had broken no laws, only to be rebuffed by the attorney general.In a Twitter post, Trump called The Post's article "pure fiction," adding: "We both deny this story, which they knew before they wrote it. A garbage newspaper!" Barr, however, did not publicly deny the account.Late Thursday, Hogan Gidley, a White House spokesman, said, "It was President Trump who decided to release the entire, unredacted phone call showing everyone he's done nothing wrong, and while shady sources attempt to push a false narrative of division, the president has a great relationship with the attorney general and respects his decades of service to this country."The attorney general's public absence in recent weeks contrasted with his willingness to act as Trump's defender after the special counsel, Robert Mueller, wrapped up his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and ties between Moscow and Trump's campaign.Barr released a four-page letter summing up Mueller's findings that critics considered tilted to the most sympathetic interpretation for the president. Then, after releasing the special counsel report, the attorney general took it upon himself to declare that its findings did not add up to obstruction of justice, even though Mueller was not willing to conclude that. At a news conference and before Congress, Barr insisted Trump had done nothing wrong.Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University and friend of Barr's, said the Ukraine matter is fundamentally different because it is still under investigation by the House. Barr offered his judgments about the Russia case only after Mueller wrapped up his inquiry.It would be "highly inappropriate for Attorney General Barr to exonerate the president on a controversy that was still unfolding," Turley said.If anything, Turley added, Barr should be credited for ensuring that as much information be released as possible, in both the Russia and Ukraine cases."What's ironic is that Barr has one of the most robust views of executive privilege," Turley said, "yet it's breathtaking to see the level at which he has secured the release of information about the president and the speed with which he has done it."Barr had to negotiate hard with Trump to release the vast majority of Mueller's report with only some redactions. His news conference defending the president essentially grew out of that discussion, with Barr agreeing to offer his own conclusions publicly as long as the report was turned over to Congress. A White House official denied late Thursday that there had been such a debate.Similarly, Barr recommended that Trump release the reconstructed transcript of the July 25 call with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine, arguing that it would show that Trump did nothing wrong. Pat A. Cipollone, the White House counsel, agreed with that recommendation, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued against releasing the call record, saying that it would hurt American diplomacy if foreign leaders thought their conversations with the president might be made public. Pompeo was also on the call -- which he initially obscured -- giving him added reason to not want it publicly aired.Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, was not included in the discussion and instead was among a number of aides blindsided when he learned that the president had decided to release the reconstructed transcript. In New York with Trump for meetings at the United Nations, Mulvaney declared to other aides that he would not be the one defending the call, according to people involved in the matter.In the run-up to the release of the Ukraine call notes, the White House and the Justice Department exchanged plans for how they would share the information. When the Justice Department said it would release a statement rather than hold a news conference saying that it found no campaign finance violation, the White House did not push back, according to an administration official.To the extent that Trump was convinced that releasing the reconstructed transcript would clear him of wrongdoing, it was a major miscalculation. The record showed that after Zelenskiy talked about his country's need for more security aid from the United States in the face of Russian aggression, Trump immediately pivoted and asked him to "do us a favor, though," and investigate a conspiracy theory about Ukraine's involvement with Democrats in 2016 as well as Biden and his son Hunter Biden.Democrats have seized on that to say it made clear the president was pressing a foreign power for help against his domestic political rivals. In the days that followed, reports emerged about Barr's own contacts with foreign leaders for help investigating the origins of the Russia interference investigation. While the Ukraine pressure campaign is separate from the Justice Department's newest investigation into the 2016 election, critics have said it is more evidence that the Trump administration is trying to carry out work that personally benefits Trump.Since the release of the reconstructed transcript, Trump has grown irked when he sees news coverage asserting that the call was problematic, harkening back to the fact that Barr was among those who told him it would be wise to release it, according to two people close to the president. One of them said that Mulvaney has fueled the president's concerns about Barr, telling Trump that it was a mistake to make the document public.In the call, which took place the day after Mueller testified before Congress, effectively ending his inquiry, Trump suggested that Barr was part of his effort to get damaging information about Democrats. "I will have Mr. Giuliani give you a call and I am also going to have Attorney General Barr call and we will get to the bottom of it," Trump told Zelenskiy.Barr sought to distance himself from the pressure campaign, however. After the release of the reconstructed transcript, his department said that Barr had no knowledge of the call until a whistleblower filed a complaint and that Trump had not spoken with the attorney general "about having Ukraine investigate anything relating to former Vice President Biden or his son."Even so, Barr's department had advised the acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire, to keep the whistleblower complaint from Congress and in a written statement ruled out any campaign finance violation by the president.While the attorney general has otherwise remained silent about Trump, he has distanced himself from Giuliani. After reports that federal prosecutors in New York were investigating Giuliani, the head of the Justice Department's criminal division said he would not have met with him in Washington had he known.But for every Cabinet officer in Trump's turnover-heavy administration, a countdown clock begins ticking from the moment they are appointed and the question is when it will eventually go off. For Barr, it is still ticking, at least for now.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| The Latest: UN envoy hails 1st round of Syria charter talks Posted: 08 Nov 2019 05:15 AM PST  The U.N. envoy for Syria says first talks on the country's constitution involving Syrian opposition, government and civil society representatives have "gone much better" than many would have expected. The helicopters flew east from the Kuweires air base to Ayn Issa and Raqqa and then back.
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| Ukraine foes set to pull back troops Saturday Posted: 08 Nov 2019 05:05 AM PST  The withdrawal of forces is a precondition for the first face-to-face talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. The summit, whose date has yet to be set, will be mediated by French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel. Kiev said earlier it was ready to begin the withdrawal of troops near the village of Petrivske in the Donetsk region on Friday but the separatists insisted that the withdrawal be delayed until Saturday.
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| Boy whose mother joined IS in Syria returns to dad in Italy Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:41 AM PST  An 11-year-old Albanian boy whose mother took him to Syria five years ago when she joined the Islamic State group returned on Friday to Italy for a joyous reunion with his father and sisters. The boy, Alvin, wearing a red cap, smiled shyly as he was escorted by two policewomen at Rome's Leonardo da Vinci airport to an airport reception where his father, Afrim Berisha, and two older sisters took turns hugging him, long and tightly. Red Cross and Red Crescent staff worked with Albanian and Italian government officials to facilitate his return from the crowded al-Hol detention camp in northeastern Syria where he was living without his family.
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| Pompeo Says NATO Risks Extinction Unless It Adapts to Reality Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:38 AM PST ![Pompeo Says NATO Risks Extinction Unless It Adapts to Reality]( "Pompeo Says NATO Risks Extinction Unless It Adapts to Reality") (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said NATO risks becoming irrelevant, adding fuel to criticism of the military alliance as grandees gathered in the German capital to mark the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.A day after Emmanuel Macron slammed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, President Donald Trump's top envoy said the alliance would lose significance if its 29 members don't contribute enough to common defense."If nations believe they can get the security benefit without providing NATO with the resources that it needs, if they don't live up to their commitments, there's a risk that NATO could become ineffective or obsolete," Pompeo told the audience at a forum next to the Brandenburg Gate.Macron drew fire from key allies, including Chancellor Angela Merkel, for saying that NATO is suffering "brain death." While the French leader has sought to advance Europe's own military capabilities and independent foreign policy, Pompeo's comments echoed Trump's blunt criticism that NATO members aren't contributing enough.Germany has been a specific target of Trump's charge that the country must meet an obligation to raise defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product. While Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said she aims to meet that target by 2031, the chancellor's Social Democratic coalition partners oppose an increase on that scale.'So Many Cameras'The U.S. secretary of state, who had just given a speech heralding German-U.S. ties three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, hesitated when asked by a moderator whether NATO is "obsolete, brain dead, or both, or neither.""So many good answers, so many cameras," he quipped.As NATO leaders prepare to gather for a summit in London next month to coincide with the 70th anniversary of its founding, Pompeo said that the Brussels-based institution's staying power can't be taken for granted."We can never assume that because this infrastructure, this beautiful building that's in Brussels, that it will exist, that it will of its own force, just by the nature of it, that it will continue to be relevant and important and effective," Pompeo said.The comments were softer than those of Macron, who appeared to call for a wholesale alteration in Europe's security architecture -- a stance that calls into question NATO's future role. Taking on Trump's lack of commitment, Macron said the uncertainty placed the alliance's key collective defense clause in question. "What will Article Five mean tomorrow?," he asked in an interview with The Economist.Merkel RebukeThe comments drew a rare rebuke from Merkel, who referred to the French president's "drastic words.""This is not my view of cooperation within NATO," Merkel said Thursday alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Pompeo was scheduled to meet with Merkel later on Friday.Stoltenberg acknowledged earlier Friday that there are differences on some issues within NATO -- such as over Syria -- but said that the alliance remains solid and the U.S. and Europe are united."What I know is that NATO is strong and North America and Europe are doing more together now than they have done for many, many years," Stoltenberg said in an interview with Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio."The reality is that NATO has not expanded its collective defense capacity so much in decades," he added. "We do that together, North America and Europe."Stoltenberg also said that Russia should not become isolated and NATO should work to improve relations with Moscow.'Comatose State'Russia signaled its pleasure at developments. President Vladimir Putin is impressed by Macron's approach to relations, which is "much more thoughtful" than the "Russophobic apocalyptic scenarios" heard from many experts, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Friday on a conference call.As for NATO's health, "it's not for us to decide whether NATO is alive or dead, or which parts of the body of this alliance are in a comatose state," Peskov said. "We are not pathologists."Pompeo said standing up to authoritarian regimes like China and Russia and "protecting freedom" is a tough task that needs greater joint effort from NATO allies. He attacked China for methods he said "would be horrifyingly familiar to former East Germans" and Russia for "invading its neighbors and slaying political opponents.""We must recognize that free nations are in a competition of values with unfree nations," Pompeo said. "It's our duty to decide the terms on which our people live."To contact the reporters on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net;Iain Rogers in Berlin at irogers11@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Chris ReiterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| If we don't embrace the Balkans, others will, says EU's Von der Leyen Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:30 AM PST ![If we don't embrace the Balkans, others will, says EU's Von der Leyen]( "If we don't embrace the Balkans, others will, says EU's Von der Leyen") North Macedonia and Albania have made enormous efforts to secure European Union membership, future European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday, implictly contesting France's decision to veto further talks on their accession. Von der Leyen was speaking after talks in Berlin with Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said it was "a matter of "extremely important strategic European interest" that the two countries continue to have a prospect of membership. "Albania and North Macedonia have made unbelievable efforts to get to this," Von der Leyen said.
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| UPDATE 2-Scottish Nationalists float Labour alliance in return for independence vote Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:24 AM PST ![UPDATE 2-Scottish Nationalists float Labour alliance in return for independence vote]( "UPDATE 2-Scottish Nationalists float Labour alliance in return for independence vote") Scottish Nationalists will seek "a progressive alliance" with the opposition Labour Party if an election next month results in no one winning an overall majority, but the party wants a second independence vote in return, its leader Nicola Sturgeon said on Friday. Britons head to the polls on Dec. 12 for a snap election which Prime Minister Boris Johnson called to end the Brexit impasse, with polls showing the governing Conservatives ahead of Labour but by varying margins. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) already has 35 out of 59 lawmakers, with some pollsters suggesting they will make further gains, positioning them as possible kingmakers.
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| UPDATE 2-Pompeo says NATO must change, or risk becoming obsolete Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:18 AM PST ![UPDATE 2-Pompeo says NATO must change, or risk becoming obsolete]( "UPDATE 2-Pompeo says NATO must change, or risk becoming obsolete") U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday NATO must grow and change or risk becoming obsolete, a day after French President Emmanuel Macron said the alliance was dying. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected Macron's comments, in an interview with British weekly The Economist, as "drastic" and Pompeo said on Thursday the alliance was perhaps one of the most important "in all recorded history".
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| French haulier counts cost of Brexit impasse Posted: 08 Nov 2019 04:04 AM PST ![French haulier counts cost of Brexit impasse]( "French haulier counts cost of Brexit impasse") French road haulage boss Bruno Beliard bet on the potential for no-deal Brexit border chaos, hiring UK-based drivers, spending cash on customs clearance training and overhauling his business model. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's own gamble to call a December election to "get Brexit done" has left Beliard in the dark over the rules that will govern how he carries goods between Europe and the UK. "The fact of not knowing whether it's Brexit or no Brexit, deal or no deal, I tell you, people in my company are stressed out by this," said Beliard as a forklift loaded goods destined for London, Bristol and northern England in a trailer.
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| Iran earthquake kills five, leaves 300 injured Posted: 08 Nov 2019 03:33 AM PST  An earthquake rocked northwestern Iran before dawn on Friday, killing at least five people and injuring more than 300 in crumbling and collapsed buildings. The 5.9-magnitude quake struck at 1:17 am (2247 GMT Thursday) about 120 kilometres (75 miles) southeast of the city of Tabriz, in East Azerbaijan province, the Iranian Seismological Centre said. Described as "moderate", the quake was eight kilometres (five miles) deep and was followed by five aftershocks.
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| Turkey's Erdogan says he will discuss Halkbank case with Trump- NTV Posted: 08 Nov 2019 03:14 AM PST ![Turkey's Erdogan says he will discuss Halkbank case with Trump- NTV]( "Turkey's Erdogan says he will discuss Halkbank case with Trump- NTV") President Tayyip Erdogan said he will discuss the case of Turkish lender Halkbank with U.S. President Donald Trump during talks in Washington next week, broadcaster NTV and other media reported on Friday. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan on Oct. 16 charged the bank with taking part in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran, in a case that has strained relations between Ankara and Washington. Halkbank's shares were up more than 4% after Erdogan's reported comments.
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| What Britain does better Posted: 08 Nov 2019 02:55 AM PST ![What Britain does better]( "What Britain does better") This is the editor's letter in the current issue of The Week magazine.It is admittedly a peculiar time to envy our cousins in the United Kingdom, torn asunder as they are by Brexit. The Brits' national division is as deep and rancorous as ours, and when they sever their unfettered economic access to the 27 nations and 500 million people in the European Union, the rift will be permanent. But here's what I envy: When Parliament recently voted to hold a new election to determine whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson has enough popular support to go ahead with his Brexit plan, it set a date of Dec. 12. Johnson and his adversaries will have six weeks in total to campaign before the citizens decide their nation's future. How very reasonable -- especially when compared with the U.S.'s permanent presidential campaign.On the day he took office in 2016, President Trump officially filed to set up his re-election campaign and soon began fundraising. A stampede of two dozen Democratic candidates began jumping into the race in mid-2017. After six months of campaigning, speeches, and debates, we're still three months away from the Iowa caucuses; after that, we will be engulfed in nine more months of primary and general-election politicking, with the two parties spending as much as $10 billion to carpet-bomb us with ads. As the Brits might say, A bit excessive, don't you think? It's also admirable that the British treat their prime minister with no great deference, but rather as a hired public servant to be held to account. Every week, the PM must go before Parliament for Question Time, during which rivals and adversaries demand that he or she explain and defend his or her policies. There's plenty of wit in the exchanges, and sharp, even insulting language. It's a fine spectacle, and for the PM, a humbling one. In the U.S., it would be considered disrespectful to speak to any president this way; we have turned our presidents into kings. Given why we declared independence from Britain, that's a bit ironic, don't you think?More stories from theweek.com The Crown's Olivia Colman had an awkward run-in with Prince William Kentucky GOP to Gov. Bevin: Show proof of voter fraud or 'let it go' and concede Trump claims 'I don't know' Gordon Sondland. Here's how ridiculous that is.
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| Western Order Reels on Berlin Wall Anniversary Posted: 08 Nov 2019 02:49 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- Want to receive this post in your inbox every day? Sign up for the Balance of Power newsletter, and follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and Facebook for more.The stage is set at the Brandenburg Gate, the dignitaries are assembling — but 30 years on, is there much cause to celebrate the fall of the Berlin Wall?The iconic moment of 1989 crowned a year of revolution that toppled communist regimes across the Soviet bloc, marking the end of the Cold War and the start of a hopeful new era.The global divisions caused by the 1991 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq stopped that in its tracks. Optimism quickly turned to cynicism, economic boom to bust, and electorates began to look for new answers.Today, the western liberal order that prevailed in 1989 is crumbling. Vladimir Putin's Russia is resurgent, communist China is the world's second-biggest economy, and the U.S. under Donald Trump openly scorns multilateralism, belittles NATO and calls the European Union a foe.In Europe, far-right nationalist forces thought banished after World War II have made a comeback, notably in the former communist east.But even as the west looks spent, it's too early to administer the last rites.The global climate emergency upends politics as we know it and represents a chance for the west to lead, even if Greta Thunberg complains it's not enough. Europe is a green energy powerhouse. Environmental concerns top the EU's agenda. Germany's Green party is vying for first place in opinion polls.A Green chancellor of Europe's dominant country: Few could have imagined that in 1989.Global HeadlinesPower struggle | Two of Trump's most senior aides, Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, are clashing over who should direct the president's response to the House impeachment inquiry, Saleha Mohsin and Jordan Fabian report. Cipollone views the impeachment push as a legal matter, while Mulvaney believes he's in charge because impeachment is political.Click here for the latest from the transcripts made public by House investigators.Reaching out | Trump has alienated large swathes of minority communities during his presidency but thinks he has an argument that can win some of them over in the 2020 election: the economy. He plans to announce a new group — "Black Voices for Trump" — today to recruit and engage African-American voters after launching a Hispanic outreach campaign earlier this year.Joe Biden took the stage at a Catholic college in Iowa and invoked a religious upbringing he's betting will pry a key constituency from Trump.Moderate Democratic lawmakers are crafting alternatives to Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax, amid concerns it wouldn't pass — even if the party captured both chambers of Congress in 2020. Former New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, is again considering a 2020 run, with an adviser saying he's concerned the current Democratic contenders can't defeat Trump.Corbyn's moment? | The U.K. opposition Labour party is divided, confused on Brexit, behind in the polls and facing charges of anti-semitism. Yet leader Jeremy Corbyn could still win the Dec. 12 election against gaffe-prone Boris Johnson. Voters might just want change after nine years of austerity under the Conservatives. Pollsters have famously underestimated Corbyn's popularity before.Criminals walk | A Brazilian Supreme Court ruling that convicted criminals should only be imprisoned after all their appeals are exhausted may allow former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and other high-profile prisoners to walk free. The decision reverses a recent practice of jailing individuals whose convictions were upheld on a first appeal that was key to the success of the Carwash anti-corruption probe.Living with the past | Forty-four years after western Europe's last right-wing dictator died in his bed in Madrid, Francisco Franco looms large over this weekend's national election. It's not just the furor caused when Socialist Premier Pedro Sanchez had the generalisimo's remains dug up last month. After four years of political gridlock, the divisions from the Civil War years have been laid bare again as modern Spain struggles to decide what it wants to be.What to WatchThe death of a Hong Kong student who fell in a parking garage near a demonstration could potentially inflame protests planned for this weekend. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari's relationship with deputy Yemi Osinbajo is in the spotlight after he went on a private overseas trip without handing over temporary authority to his vice president. Jeff Sessions said he'll run for the Alabama Senate seat he vacated in 2017 to became Trump's first attorney general, though a return to politics could be challenging given his tumultuous relationship with the president.Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which world leader this week described NATO as being in a state of "brain death"? Send us your answers and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.And finally ... The politics of pollution in India's capital are as noxious as the city's air. While New Delhi chokes, politicians squabble in an annual phenomenon that lasts for an intense few weeks at the start of winter. No surprise, then, that they've yet to find sustainable solutions to one of the world's worst air-pollution crises that the World Bank says costs as much as 8.5% of the country's GDP, or around $221 billion, each year. \--With assistance from Ruth Pollard, Ben Sills and Flavia Krause-Jackson.To contact the author of this story: Alan Crawford in Berlin at acrawford6@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Kathleen Hunter at khunter9@bloomberg.net, Karl MaierFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| For Kurds on the Syrian Front Line There’s No Ceasefire Posted: 08 Nov 2019 02:00 AM PST  Delil Souleiman/GettyHASAKAH, Syria—The sun was setting when the car turned right toward the town of Serekanye last Saturday, leaving behind a fairly busy road and the last checkpoint before the war zone. The hour-long drive had been a race against time. "We need to get there before dark, it is way too dangerous at night," said Tolheidan, a twentysomething Kurd dressed in loose pants and a green jacket. He is one of the fighters who came to pick us up to bring us to the front line. Normally, no journalists are allowed. "Drones and planes are all over this area, we need to be careful, sometimes they strike anything that moves," he said, driving at a very high speed while listening to loud Kurdish rap songs. The road was empty, just a few motorbikes were traveling at regular speed. Each village we passed seemed empty, though in a few cases grey-haired men were sitting outside smoking and chatting.In Syria, as in Other 'Frozen' Conflicts, Putin Plays Peacemaker But Wants Controlled ChaosAt 4:30 p.m. the car entered a small village with no more than 20 mud houses. The last rays of the sun colored everything in a warm orange light, creating a magical atmosphere. We stopped under a tree in a yard where dozens of hens and two turkeys were strolling around picking bread crumbs from the ground. Their small noises made us aware of the wider silence, which seemed almost unreal. A little mosque next door was not playing the Azan, the call to evening prayer. Doves began singing as night was falling. Then the quiet was interrupted by a couple of distant shots. And then a female voice: "Keramke," or "come in" in Kurdish. Berivan stood before us, a big smile lighting her face, and for a moment it erased the fatigue in her eyes. "We have been waiting for you, why are you so late?" she joked as she greeted us with a vigorous handshake and a hug.We went through a white metal door leading to a room with pale carpets and red pillows on the floor. On the walls: pictures of elderly couples, and a traditional Kurdish red flower tapestry. The family who used to live in this house had fled no more than 10 days before. They took everything with them that they could carry, but that was not everything they owned. They knew that this time they might not be able to come back, but they knew as well there was no time to waste.This area has been safe for the past six years, ever since Kurdish-led forces managed to defeat al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Al Nusra and some Free Syrian Army (FSA) cells working with it. Once it was secured, the self-administration of Rojava, the Syrian Kurdish area of Syria, also known as Western Kurdistan, took over. For years the Kurds worked hard to develop an inclusive democratic project for the whole of this part of Syria. They call it the "third way," not with the Assad regime nor with the opposition. They built a haven for ethnic and religious minorities, marked by an emphasis on ecology, feminism, and direct democracy. The established a co-chair system, men and women sitting in the position of power throughout the self-administration and military. The system works around communes which organize daily life, economy, education, justice, and health. Now all of this is at stake.In the past month, everything changed in the region, including alliances. There are daily twists and pivotal changes.* * *THE FATAL CALL* * *It all started with a phone call that overturned the life of more than 5 million people living in the area, and it almost broke the alliance between the SDF—the Syrian Democratic Forces, an umbrella organization that includes Kurds, Arabs, Syriacs fighters—and the United States in the fight against the so-called Islamic State.On Oct. 6, U.S. President Donald J. Trump in a conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to withdraw American special operations forces from northeast Syria. Trump announced the change in a tweet in the middle of the night in Syria, catching everyone off guard including the Pentagon. For months before that, the Turkish president had made public threats to the region while the U.S. acted as a mediator. Turkey has never accepted the Syrian Kurds creating an autonomous region along its border. If the political project succeeds in northeast Syria, Kurds in Turkey might want to emulate the system and claim more autonomy from the state. Over the summer top U.S. officials worked on a deal between the SDF and Turkey to prevent a conflict in the area. In 2011, when the Syrian crisis started the Kurds established the YPG—the People's Protection Units—as a self-defense force. Some of the members were former PKK Syrian fighters. In 2015, the SDF was set up by the International Coalition against ISIS and it changed the balance—the majority of fighters were actually Arabs. In the past four years SDF's priority has always been fighting ISIS, and there were no attacks north of the borders towards Turkey. According to a report by the Rojava Information Center, an independent research study group, in the first half of 2019 there has been at least 30 cross-border attacks from Turkey to Rojava. Just one in the opposite direction. In August, the SDF agreed to dismantle its fortifications in a designated area at the border and allowed Turkey to patrol there with U.S. forces. For Ankara that was not enough, and three days after the U.S. moved its forces out of the way, on Oct. 9, Turkey started an invasion, shelling most of the major cities of Rojava. It created chaos, killed civilians, and forced thousands to flee their homes. Turkey's "Operation Spring of Peace" concentrated its efforts on two cities: Serekanye (Rais Al Ain) and Gire Spi (Tal Abyad) both on the border and about 110 km (68 miles) apart. Turkey shelled hospitals and nonmilitary targets, committing what are widely alleged to have been war crimes. Turkish militias known as the TFSA executed "in cold blood" Hevrin Khalef, a 35-year-old politician serving as a secretary general of the Future Syria Party. She was "dragged out of her car, beaten and shot dead," according to Amnesty International. The coroner's report added graphic details posted on Twitter by New York Times correspondent Rukmini Callimachi. One day later, on Oct. 13, Gire Spi fell, but Serekanye resisted. TFSA advanced, supported with air coverage from the second-largest army in NATO. On Oct. 17, the U.S. and Turkey agreed on a 120-hour ceasefire, during which the SDF retreated from Serekanye, and moved its troops 32 km (19 miles) away from the border. Erdogan calls this region where he will impose Turkish control, a "safe zone" and plans to resettle some 2 million Syrian refugees, most of whom come from other parts of the country.* * *THE RUSSIANS AND 'THE REGIME'* * *There followed another agreement on Oct. 22, this time between Turkey and Russia, which aimed to contain Erdogan's ambitions to expand the area under his control. The 13 points of this memorandum agreed at a summit in Sochi, Russia, made clear that Turkey should stay in the designated area while other parts of the border would be patrolled by Russian military police and the Syrian regime. Ankara never really respected the Sochi accords and, continuing its offensive despite the truce, and widening the attacks. SDF commander in chief Mazloum Abdi repeatedly exposed the violations of the truce. The village we were staying in is outside the "safe zone" and the fight has been intense. "It was the strangest ceasefire I have ever seen in my life," said Berivan, our weary-looking 35-year-old host. She sat on the floor smoking a cigarette as we talked. She has always been a heavy smoker. Originally from the city of Qamishli, Berivan is a leading commander, and has fought in the war against ISIS since the battle of Kobane in 2014. She has long brown hair and speaks good English. Of the current confrontation with Turkey, she says, "We never really stopped fighting, they continued the shelling. Some days were very heavy and we couldn't move." Everything is different in this war, she admitted. There is little ground combat, the SDF is taking many casualties due to the intensive air and artillery campaign. Drones scan the territory, then the heavy weapons target houses. So far at least 1,000 people have died, half of them civilians, says Berivan. According to medical reports over 90 percent of the victims died because of wounds from shell and shrapnel. Turkey also has been accused of using white phosphorus on nonmilitary targets. So far no one has agreed to test the sample. The Times of London and Newsweek recently reported that various NATO countries have asked the U.N. watchdog agency, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, not to investigate this alleged offense by a NATO ally."We just ask for a no-fly zone, we don't want other armies to fight for us," said Berivan. The Syrian regime has sent troops, but they are said to be poorly equipped with no real willingness to participate in the fight. When interviewed, one experienced Syrian team leader, Omar Abed Almajid, told The Daily Beast that the situation was chaotic. "They sent us to die," he said while lying in a bed at the hospital in Tel Tamer on Oct. 29. "Our leaders told us we were not going to fight, we were just going to patrol the border. Instead Turkey massacred us with heavy weapons"Almajid was injured while trying to open a corridor for civilians to escape. His troops didn't have any armored cars or heavy weapons to protect themselves. The Kurds Gave Their Lives to Defeat the Islamic State. Trump Just Pissed It All Away.Most of the soldiers of the Assad regime's SAA–Syrian Arab Army–expected air coverage to be provided by Moscow, with which they've had an active alliance since 2015. They were wrong. So far the Kremlin has stayed out of the fight while patrolling certain areas. The Syrian regime retreated from the front lines several times to try to come back the day after. This has happened almost everywhere and on a daily basis. Berivan also recalled the story of a regime unit stationed on her side of the front surrendering to the TFSA militias. "They had orders not to fire back because of the ceasefire. We begged them not to give up, they needed to at least defend themselves." They didn't listen. Straight after being captured, they all got executed, she said, and a video circulated online.* * *'SO MANY BAGHDADIS'* * *Berivan's group, two women and three men, had been caught out of contact with the world for almost 10 days. Communication is strictly over the radio, and brief. They have no internet because they are afraid armed drones can pick up their GPS coordinates if they access it. She didn't know about Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's death. At first, she was in disbelief and then started laughing as we explained the details of the raid"We have so many Baghdadis that his death doesn't make a difference," said Shero, sitting next to her. He chain smoked while checking on the progress of the different factions. The area is flat, and villages are used as FOBs–Forward Operating Bases. As the hours passed the movements around us increased. We could hear some shelling, though after a few hours the night went on as quiet. Both Berivan and Shero stayed up until 5:00 a.m. to check on the situation. The fight resumed around 9 a.m., and movement was impossible for about two hours. We could hear planes and drones overhead with shelling around us. We wanted to get to Zergan (Abu Rasin), a major town in the area. "Now it is not safe," said Berivan. We waited under a tree, drinking tea, for a couple of hours. Then we started out.Less than a mile north, a small settlement was completely abandoned. The few houses were around a deserted church. There were a lot of Christians in the area. Now they've all left. They knew if the TFSA arrived their lives could be in danger. The SDF forces in the area are highly suspicious of the people who stayed. This is an active war zone. "When civilians leave is not good because it means we are fighting. When they stay we fear they are giving away positions to the enemy," said Berivan.A group of fighters arrived at the scene. They constantly move from village to village in small numbers. There were seven of them, all from Iraqi Kurdistan. They arrived when the fight started three weeks ago. "We came to support the fighters of Rojava and protect the people from being massacred," said Hajar Karoikh, from Sulaymaniyah. Karoikh explained that at least 100 young people just from Iraqi Kurdistan had joined the fight. They are not alone. The Turkish invasion of northeast Syria inspired many Kurdish young men and women to join the fight. Many have traveled from Europe. We met people from Rojhalat, Iranian Kurdistan, in a house on the outskirts of Zergan (Abu Rasin). "This is a fight for dignity. We can't leave our brothers and sisters alone," said Azad, the commander of a six-man team. They recently changed base since their old one was targeted by a drone. He showed a picture on his phone. "We were sitting outside when they struck us. No one was injured, we were lucky this time," he said with a smile. Zergan is a ghost town. On the main street, all the shutters are down, they are painted in purple and grey, colors replaced the Syrian flag in regime controlled areas. A few skinny dogs were walking around. A group of four women was chatting outside. As soon as they saw us, they started giggling and went inside. Everyone but one. Rema Abdullah, in her fifties, was wearing a light-colored scarf and a darker green dress. Her children left, but she had to stay behind because her husband is disabled. They are originally from another village; they moved just a few miles."The TFSA looted my house, may Allah not help them win this war," she said. As soon as she finished speaking we could see several vehicles approaching. The regime was moving to the front with heavy weapons now, and soldiers. As they passed by they all made the victory sign. It was already 3 p.m., and time to move again before the sunset. Now it was Berivan's team's turn to go to the next village just a couple of miles up the road. "You can't come with us, not today," she explained. They expected another big push by the Turks and their militias with drones and airplanes. She hugged us and said goodbye: "We will resist this invasion," she said and added the typical Kurdish salute: "Serkeftin." Until victory. Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| Nord Stream 2 Faces Hurdles as Germany Dismisses Waiver Plan Posted: 08 Nov 2019 01:59 AM PST  (Bloomberg) -- The controversial Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline faces potential delays as a German government adviser denied the country was drawing up legislation that would waive the project from European Union energy laws.Lawmakers in Germany are set to anchor the revised EU gas rules into national law, according to Stefan Rolle, an adviser in Germany's Economy & Energy Ministry, who described as "complete nonsense" media reports that the bill would provide an exemption for the Russian-German pipeline. Legislators are expected to approve the bill next week. A vote was postponed Thursday.The EU law requiring separate ownership of gas and transmission lines extends into pipelines from third countries. It offers an exemption to links completed by May 23, a provision that Nord Stream 2 says should apply to its business. The company behind the project can seek a waiver from the law though the German energy authority, the Bundesnetzagentur."It is not 100% that Bundesnetzagentur will decide negatively on the derogation, but I would say it is rather probable they cannot decide positively on the derogation," Rolle said on Thursday. "And I do not see any scope for a derogation for Nord Stream 2."The European Union gas directive came into effect in May, and member states are obliged to adopt it into their domestic laws by Feb. 24. The German law implementing the EU directive "probably" will become effective in the beginning of December, according to Rolle.Nord Stream 2 wasn't immediately available to comment.Bild Zeitung and Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition was working to set up its domestic law in a way that would allow Nord Stream 2 to redefine the legal definition of the project's "completion."The 1,230-kilometer (764-mile) undersea pipeline from Russia to Germany is 87% complete and the company still has to lay 336 kilometers of the infrastructure. It was initially planned to start at the end of this year.Nord Stream 2 could consider creating an independent pipeline operator to comply with Europe's gas directive, Rolle said.Project owner Gazprom PJSC is preparing to create a legal entity that will comply with the directive, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Thursday.Last PermissionThe pipeline overcame a major hurdle last week when it received approval to cross Denmark's waters. But it could take several months between when the pipeline is completed and flows ramp up.Other obstacles could delay the process even more.The link has drawn the threat of sanctions from the U.S., which wants Europe to buy its liquefied natural gas. It has also divided EU governments, with nations led by Poland concerned about the bloc's increasing dependence on Russian gas.Ukraine, one of the biggest routes for Russian gas to Europe, called on Germany not to waive parts of the EU gas directive for Nord Stream 2. Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk said Thursday that it would "mean a violation of the consensus decision adopted by all EU member states.""You can't really count on Nord Stream 2 to be operational in the first half of next year," said Thierry Bros, a senior research fellow of The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a member of the EU-Russia Gas Advisory Council."It is always harder to lay down the pipeline during the winter," he said. "Also, ramping up is a challenge. If you look at Nord Stream 1, it took from five to six years to ramp up. And people can appeal. Other things can happen."French electricity and gas firm Engie SA, OMV AG, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Uniper SE and Wintershall DEA, are also investors in the Nord Stream 2 project along with Gazprom.(Updates with more comments from Germany's Economy & Energy Ministry)\--With assistance from Brian Parkin.To contact the reporters on this story: Vanessa Dezem in Frankfurt at vdezem@bloomberg.net;Ewa Krukowska in Brussels at ekrukowska@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net, Andrew ReiersonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Joint US-Chinese operations against fentanyl led to trafficking gang's downfall Posted: 08 Nov 2019 01:30 AM PST  Thursday's sentencing of a gang of drug traffickers in a smoggy city in northern China that few outsiders are likely to have ever heard of offers a rare insight into how the US authorities are working with their Chinese counterparts to tackle a deadly scourge that has devastated communities across the United States.After the conclusion of the case " which saw one gang member given a suspended death sentence and eight others jailed, two of them for life " a group of Chinese and American law enforcement officers gathered in Xingtai, an industrial city in Hebei province, to share details of how their joint investigation had brought down an international fentanyl smuggling operation.It was the first public example of how the two countries have been working together to target the trade. Their cooperation began in 2012, when a spike in the number of overdoses linked to the synthetic opioid prompted American officials to reach out to China, the biggest supplier of the drug and its related forms and compounds.While issues such as soybeans, tariffs and 5G technology have dominated the US-China dialogue in recent years, the sale of Chinese-made fentanyl has also become a factor in the trade talks, with US President Donald Trump complaining that China is not doing enough to stop the drug from reaching America.Nine members of a drug gang were sentenced by a court in Hebei province on Thursday. Photo: AFP alt=Nine members of a drug gang were sentenced by a court in Hebei province on Thursday. Photo: AFPBut this debate has taken places against a backdrop of overdose deaths, homelessness and devastated families and communities, spurring law enforcement to carry on their collaboration throughout the ebb and flow of tensions between the two countries."If there's one area of cooperation globally that a lot of countries who don't see eye-to-eye on many things, like trade, do see eye-to-eye on, it's organised crime, criminality and trafficking," said Jeremy Douglas, regional representative of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for Southeast Asia and the Pacific."That doesn't mean cooperation is always easy [but it is] hugely important".A major priority for the US has been to stop Chinese fentanyl from flooding the US black market, both through direct mail order to American customers and dealers, as well as being indirectly smuggled over the border by Mexican cartels that ship the drug and its chemical components through Pacific ports."The drug overdose crisis in the United States is the worst that we have seen historically ... in terms of other public health problems, this surpasses firearm deaths and is on par with motor vehicle deaths," said drug policy expert Bryce Pardo.He noted the increasing role in past the six years of synthetic opioids like fentanyl, which is 50 times more powerful than heroin and in 2017 accounted for around 40 per cent of the over 70,000 drug overdoses in America, according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention."It's very important that these two sides work together, and this requires a positive and constructive political working environment," said Pardo, who is an associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank's Washington office.Thursday's meeting between US and Chinese drug enforcement officials comes at a time when the two nations are circling around an interim trade deal, although it is unlikely to include any further measures to tackle the issue.However, the two sides still have plenty of issues beyond the balance of trade to resolve, including the export of the drug from China to the US."If [Trump] can add to the scope of his agreement with Xi by referencing things that China might do with respect to the fentanyl trade, that could be seen to be adding to what he has been able to achieve," said Stephen Kirchner, director of the trade and investment programme at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.The synthetic opioid has been at the heart of the US drug crisis in recent years. Photo: AP alt=The synthetic opioid has been at the heart of the US drug crisis in recent years. Photo: APThe issue became a subject of conversation in talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina on December 1, and reared its head again in August as Trump prepared to levy additional tariffs and raise existing ones."[M]y friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States " this never happened, and many Americans continue to die!" Trump tweeted on August 1, as he announced further levies on Chinese goods.A provisional agreement at the talks in Argentina led China to tighten its drug regulations as of May to treat all variants of fentanyl as controlled substances.It was an effort to close a loophole in which producers were making minor changes to the chemical compounds for fentanyl to get around China's existing regulations on the drug, which the country's booming pharmaceutical industry produces legally for medical use.That move and increased attention to the issue in China does appear to be having an effect, at least in the short term, according to Pardo, who said there has been a steep drop in the appearance of chemical analogues of the drug in the US, as well as reduced fentanyl seizures by US postal and delivery services."But there's still a lot of fentanyl showing up," he said, noting that this could be from chemicals produced by China and sent to Mexico for manufacturing, illicit cargo shipments, or even stockpiles already in the United States." Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019Part of the challenge of stemming the tide lies with law enforcement officials in China who are tasked with ensuring that legally produced fentanyl pills or the component chemicals are not being smuggled out the "back door" of factories for shipment, according to the UN's Douglas.Many of the chemicals involved originate from China's large chemical industry, where the compounds used to make a range of everyday products such as food additives or pharmaceuticals originate."That is a massive challenge because you can imagine some chemicals simply get diverted out the back door of a factory or misappropriated ... it's very hard to regulate."International investigations, meanwhile, need to keep up with criminal syndicates that may involve a host of players from China, Mexico and US " making international collaboration by law enforcement crucial."There's definitely been progress in that relationship, and the Chinese side has been very much trying to make an effort, they are really making a push to show good faith to the US," Douglas said, that has included "clamping down" on the back-door transactions that see drugs shipped overseas.But the extent to which the role of China in the global production of the drug and its component chemicals has diminished is difficult to gauge, and observers agree that China remains a key part of the supply chain."The producers and Big Pharma certainly have tightened up, but we know for a fact that there are stockpiles of that product ... and we know that clandestine markets have been created in the wake of these regulations," said Roderic Broadhurt, a professor of criminology at Australian National University's College of Asia and the Pacific.He noted that unlike drugs such as heroin or cocaine, fentanyl can also be easily produced anywhere without the "long difficult logistic trains from the hills of northern Burma or western provinces of Mexico and Colombia" as long as the necessary chemicals are available.China defended its record on this front in September, with a senior narcotics commission official Liu Yuejin saying that Trump's claims that authorities were not stopping trafficking were "completely groundless and untrue".No fentanyl smuggling cases between the US and China have been uncovered since the new measures were implemented, Liu said at that time.Details of the cooperation between the two sides have been scant so far, and the decision to publicise the results of the recent joint investigation could be a goodwill effort, according to several experts, to show that progress is being made on a sensitive issue.This case began with a tip-off from US law enforcement in 2017 when officers from the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement in New Orleans found the telephone number of a woman suspected of smuggling fentanyl.The US authorities passed the number on to their Chinese counterparts, leading to the arrest of members of the gang that was sentenced on Thursday and "three major criminal arrests" being made in the United States.Members of the Chinese gang were convicted last year of a range of offences, including manufacturing the drug, advertising it on English language websites and shipping it to the US.Law enforcement officials have indicated that there are two further cases in the pipeline, one of which is an ongoing investigation while the other is expected to be wrapped up soon.Yu Haibin, deputy director of China National Narcotics Control Commission, and Austin Moore, an attache for US law enforcement, at a press conference after the sentencing of the drug gang. Photo: AFP alt=Yu Haibin, deputy director of China National Narcotics Control Commission, and Austin Moore, an attache for US law enforcement, at a press conference after the sentencing of the drug gang. Photo: AFPOn Thursday, the US Office of National Drug Control Policy welcomed the prosecutions as a "positive step in following through the agreement" between Trump and Xi, adding: "We look forward to further cooperation to stop the flow of these deadly substances into the United States."It said these would include establishing regular law enforcement cooperation meetings, responding "rapidly" to new leads, expanding detection and narcotics laboratory capabilities, as well as carrying out more joint investigations.But while such successes remain good examples of international collaboration, the real challenge will be how these law enforcement efforts are able to track what experts see as an inevitable shift of manufacturing out of a stricter China and into South and Southeast Asia.Douglas said the challenge was that China was only one country out of many that could become involved in the drug supply."There are other countries where synthetic drugs can be produced," he continued, "and we just hope that doesn't become the case that fentanyl production shifts to other locations, some of which don't have the capacity to control substances like China does."This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2019 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2019. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| Brexit Bulletin: Don’t Write Off Corbyn Posted: 07 Nov 2019 11:24 PM PST  Days to Brexit deadline: 84(Bloomberg) -- Sign up here to get the Brexit Bulletin in your inbox every weekday.Today in Brexit: Despite a tough start to the election campaign, Labour's Jeremy Corbyn could yet win power.What's happening? They may be divided, unfancied and accused of racism, but Jeremy Corbyn and his allies still see a path to 10 Downing Street. As Bloomberg's Rob Hutton explains, there's plenty going for them: austerity-bitten voters have seen the Tories in office for so long, opinion polls have been wrong before and Boris Johnson is running a high-risk election strategy.Like Theresa May before him, Johnson is hoping to win a national vote by picking up pro-Brexit seats in Labour heartlands in northern and central England, trying to exploit the opposition's perceived weakness on the question of leaving the EU. That plan failed in 2017, as lifelong Labour voters in industrial districts balked at ditching their tribal allegiances. The same could well happen again.Labour is also offering a populist spending splurge. Speaking Thursday, their economy spokesman John McDonnell pledged £250 billion of infrastructure investment over 10 years, plus more money for education, health care and social housing. In what looks like an arms race of giveaways, the Tories also unveiled significant plans to loosen the purse strings.And though Brexit is a key issue in the campaign, Corbyn is also trying to play up Labour's historic strength on the much-loved National Health Service, repeatedly accusing Johnson of planning to "sell it out" in a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. On Friday, Johnson will announce plans for special visas to make it easier to recruit doctors, as he tries to shore up his support on health care.Today's Must-ReadsNeed a debrief on the election? Bloomberg's Kitty Donaldson answers all your questions. The Bank of England made dovish noises Thursday, highlighting risks to growth from Brexit and a weaker global economy. Boris Johnson's charisma is the best hope for the Tories in this general election, Iain Martin writes in the Times.Brexit in BriefOn The Markets | Pound traders took the BOE's caution in their stride, keeping their focus on the significant changes to Britain's economy that could come from the December election, Bloomberg's Charlotte Ryan and Anooja Debnath write. The pound was trading at $1.2812 early Friday in London.Remain Alliance | The pro-EU Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru agreed to step aside for each other in 60 seats across England and Wales, in a bid to concentrate the anti-Brexit vote. But the effect may be limited: a BBC analysis showed the move would not have changed any of the results at the 2017 election.Swaps Move | German banking giant DekaBank has moved more than 7,000 swap transactions from London to Frankfurt, boosting the city's standing as a post-Brexit finance hub.Ads Controversy | Tech giant Facebook defended its policy of not fact-checking political ads in the U.K. general election, saying it would've allowed a controversial recent video by the Tories — which was doctored to cast doubt on Labour's Brexit policy — to run as an advert on its platform.'No MPs, Mr Farage' | A leading political academic said Nigel Farage's Brexit Party won't win any seats at the election, as more of their candidates stood down and urged voters to back Johnson. Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at Kent University, told the Telegraph that Farage risks denying the Tories a majority and helping thwart Brexit.Want to keep up with Brexit?You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday. It's live at midday on Bloomberg Radio and is available as a podcast too. Share the Brexit Bulletin: Colleagues, friends and family can sign up here. For full EU coverage, try the Brussels Edition.For even more: Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access for our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.To contact the author of this story: Joe Mayes in London at jmayes9@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Caitlin Morrison at cmorrison59@bloomberg.net, Iain RogersFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Secret chats involving Republican lawmaker reveal fresh evidence of plots and paranoia Posted: 07 Nov 2019 11:00 PM PST  Messages from network involving Matt Shea provide insight into 'patriot movement' – and the extent of their conspiracy thinkingWashington state congressman Matt Shea in April this year. Shea's network includes other rightwing politicians alongside activists associated with militia groups and pro-gun activists. Photograph: Ted S Warren/APLeaked Signal messages from an online chat network around six-term Washington state Republican representative Matt Shea show new evidence of violent fantasies, surveillance of perceived adversaries, conspiracy thinking, Islamophobia, and support for white nationalists.The messages from the chat group, exchanged between October 2017 and October 2018, show Shea's network includes other serving, former and aspiring rightwing politicians from Idaho and Washington, alongside activists associated with militia groups, anti-environmental causes, and pro-gun activism.They also show participants, including Shea, preparing for economic and societal collapse even as they campaign for the secession of eastern Washington from the remainder of the state.The messages provide a rare insight into the inner workings – and paranoia – of the so-called patriot movement, whose members have participated in standoffs with the federal government in Nevada and Oregon, and whose far-right beliefs have been controversially promoted by Shea.Lindsay Schubiner, a program director at the progressive Western States Center, said of the chats: "The chat messages reveal Shea acting more like a militia leader than an elected official. His conspiratorial and violent mindset are on full display. If it was not already clear, Shea has demonstrated that he is unfit for public office. Now it's time for his colleagues in the Washington house of representatives to hold him accountable."Shea is currently under investigation by the Washington state house after reporting on his activities by the Guardian and local media outlets. The networkThe group chat the messages appeared in was repeatedly described by participants as an "intel" channel for sharing information among a large group of Shea's associates, including: * Washington state representative Matt Shea, who posts in the chat under a frequently used online alias Verrumbellator. * Two-term Idaho state representative Heather Scott. * Former Spokane Valley councilman and Shea ally Mike Munch. * Former Spokane Valley councilman and podcaster Caleb Collier. * An account posting as "Marble", attached to a phone number registered to Anne Byrd, who with husband Pastor Barry Byrd leads the secretive Marble Community Church, headquartered in a compound in remote north-east Washington. * Broadcaster and Shea lieutenant Jack Robertson, also known as John Jacob Schmidt. * Patriot movement activist and Malheur standoff participant Anthony Bosworth. Bosworth runs a patriot movement group called Liberty For All, once ran for Yakima county sheriff, and was charged with assaulting his daughter in downtown Yakima. Also present in the chat were a number of rightwing activists, some from the region incorporating eastern Washington, north Idaho, and surrounding areas, which they have christened "the American Redoubt". These activists included: * Former Spokane county employee and retired air force officer John Christina. * Former candidate for Washington commissioner of public lands Steve McLaughlin, who told the SPLC in 2016 that he was pulling back from involvement the patriot movement * Jay Pounder, a former Shea confidant who leaked the chats to the Guardian.Shea and the other sitting legislator, Heather Scott, are members of the chat for its entire length, and both weigh in on a wide range of topics.The Guardian confirmed participants by cross-checking phone numbers in the chat with public phone records. Civil warParticipants frequently expressed a belief civil war was coming.In particular, they were exercised by false rumors of an "antifa insurrection" on 4 November 2017, which circulated widely in far right and conservative media throughout the previous month.During that month, the chat also circulated false news, unattributed memes and fabricated intelligence about the supposedly impending insurrection.The Guardian previously reported on the messages of a smaller chat involving members of this larger group, which was also planning for the supposed antifa uprising. That chat saw Bosworth and Robertson fantasizing about sadistic violence, and promoting surveillance and opposition research about local activists.A rightwing rally in Portland last year, where far-right protesters and antifa counter-protesters clashed. Photograph: John Rudoff/Rex/ShutterstockAt one point in late October 2017, the larger chat took an unattributed meme listing supposed "planned riots" in the region to be accurate.This led to chat members ventilating fantasies of a violent response."Sometimes, ya just gotta go out and pick a fight with the philistines," Robertson wrote on 29 October 2017. "Knock some heads. Bring back some foreskins. Lol!"Later that day, Jack Robertson wrote: "We could have a contest … see how many communists we could knock out, before getting knocked out or arrested!"Bosworth responded: "OK. Now this is starting to sound fun."But there were no protests in the region, and only small ones in other parts of the country: peaceful events which had been planned by a group associated with the Revolutionary Communist party.Other events were taken as portents of civil war.In July 2018, when the Trump-backed congressional challenger Katie Arrington was badly injured in a car crash after ousting Mark Sanford in a primary, the chat took it as a sign of impending civil collapse."Every day shows more and more we are sitting on the edge of civil war between two governmental factions. I don't think we're going to make six years before we see shots fired," Bosworth remarked.Christina replied: "Agreed. Banana republic sums it up quite well. Never thought I would see it come to my country in my lifetime." Islam and leftistsIslam – a frequent bugbear in Shea's public speeches – is seen in dark hues by many members of the chat. Muslims and leftists are held to be working together to subvert the United States.Violent, paranoid reveries were aired about both groups by members of the chat.In December 2017, Robertson warned: "Expect acid throwing attacks. Low tech, low cost. Effective and brutal. Since the announcement of moving out embassy to Jerusalem, things are about to get sporty. Be vigilant when you travel to large metro areas."In February 2018, after accepting as true faked photographs of Parkland shooter Nicholas Cruz that depicted him as a leftist, the group ventilated more violent fantasies and conspiracy theories."The communist bastards need to be shot," Bosworth wrote."Communist Islam," Shea responded.In May 2018, Shea wrote: "Please remember tomorrow is the first day of Ramadan begins Tuesday/Wednesday. Higher likelihood of terror attacks."Robertson days later wrote: "Wow. Ramadan began yesterday. Avoid crowds when possible, be vigilant, stay armed, and keep a combat rifle accessible when practical."Leftists are equally feared and despised in the chats. In June 2018, the chat responded to news of the occupation of an Ice facility in Portland with more fantasies of violence and vigilantism.Bosworth said of potential police violence at the facility: "I don't agree with federal agents clubbing them. I think they should let the people club the commies."Robertson responded: "Agreed! Commies should get the baby seal treatment from the citizens."Bosworth later added: "The American people need to stomp communism into the dust. They need to be hunted down and destroyed. It's not the government's job to do it. It is ours, the rightful heirs to liberty fought and won by our founders."Requests for surveillance on perceived political opponents also permeate the chat, many coming from Shea.He asked whether a local conservative is a "friend or foe" and at one point Bosworth shared images of what appears to be the FBI file of a Shea critic. Liberty stateA central topic in the chats is the campaign to carve out a 51st state from eastern Washington, to be named Liberty state.The campaign for Liberty state has underpinned activism in the Shea network, but has also provoked fears among opponents who believe that proponents are seeking to implement a dominionist theocracy.At one point Bosworth asked if they can shake off federal and state control: "People need to know what the new state is going to look like. Is it going to operate without federal control? If so our first step would be to show the people of the new state that we can operate without Olympia's control."Later in the chat, McLaughlin offered a view of what a successful Liberty state movement would look like: "People standing up and applying the elements of power to undo lies, destroy the commie movement and taking political control. Elements of power are economic, diplomatic, information dominance and force."Elsewhere, speaking of Liberty state opponents, Jack Robertson opined that "skull-stomping godless communists does have a very strong appeal".Heather Scott replied: "Sounds like the name of a rock band."Bosworth replied: "I'm all for Christians doing some skull stomping in defense of their faith." G2Apart from direct participants, the chat sees the repeated dissemination of intelligence from outside sources. One source, described in the chat only as "G2", frequently provided alarming updates on geopolitical events.His prognostications were of intense interest to the group, including Shea, and taken to indicate impending global catastrophe.Christina was the contact with G2, and would relay messages to the group.Members, including Shea, would solicit updates from G2 on international incidents. Solicitations of G2's advice occur throughout the chats, and members treat him as an authoritative source.On November 6 2017, Shea asked: "A lot coming out right now about DPRK [North Korea]. What is the status with G2?"A chance remark about a family death has allowed the Guardian to identify G2 as Ronald Jessee, Christina's nephew, who runs a popular "open source intelligence" Twitter account called Intellipus.On Twitter, the Intellipus account has 48,000 followers. But according to his LinkedIn page, 42-year-old Jessee has never worked in any military or intelligence capacity, and his last listed employment was with an open-source intelligence startup which folded in 2018. James AllsupThe group engages in extended, and ultimately supportive conversation about James Allsup, a white nationalist, Charlottesville marcher and far-right personality who was excluded from the Washington State University College Republicans, and eventually the Spokane county GOP, for neo-Nazi associations.The group began discussing Allsup just days after the Daily Beast published a story about him being elected as a precinct committee officer for the local Republican party.After prolonged conversation in which Robertson, in particular, defended Allsup after local Republicans "threw this guy under the bus", Shea proposed they contact Allsup. "Here's my two cents. Anthony I think you should reach out to him and if he is legit (not racist or a plant) make an ally."None of the named chat participants with the exception of Jay Pounder responded to the Guardian's requests for comment. Sitting legislators Shea and Scott did not respond to detailed requests made by email.Pounder himself was an active participant in the chats and in Shea's movement until late last year. "I was on board. I was a believer until I had a moment of conscience," he said in a telephone conversation.Still a devout Christian, he said: "God got a hold of my heart and told me, no man, this isn't the way it's meant to be."Shea remains under investigation by the Rampart Group, which was hired by the clerk of the Washington state house to "assess the level of threat of political violence posed by these individuals and groups" associated with Shea, following reporting in the Guardian and local outlets about secret chats and documents produced by Shea's network. They are due to present their report on 1 December.
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| Macron Is Playing With Fire on Immigration Quotas Posted: 07 Nov 2019 11:00 PM PST  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Emmanuel Macron wants to "take back control" of immigration in France. At first glance, his government's forthright language — and its aspirations for a system of numerical "quotas" similar to Canada's or Australia's — sounds a lot like the populist clarion call that won Nigel Farage the Brexit referendum.There are differences, of course. This is about migration from outside the European Union, whereas Farage and his fellow Brexiters were angry about the U.K.'s lack of control over migrant numbers from eastern Europe. And Macron would no doubt say that he just wants the right level of immigration to meet the needs of the French economy. But he appears to have one eye too on trying to neutralize his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen, who's tied with Macron in the polls. It's a political ploy that risks backfiring.In 2018, non-Europeans accounted for about 256,000 French residency cards, or titres de sejour. That sounds huge, but the proposed quotas would only hit those moving explicitly for work, which was a small slice of the pie at about 33,500 last year. The rest are mainly students, family members, and asylum-seekers. And even though "quotas" sounds draconian, these ones look more like aspirational targets defined by corporate sectors. They'll probably end up very close to current levels anyway.As with the rest of the western world, France certainly needs immigration. By 2050 it will have about 9 million more over-65s than it did in 2013. Somebody will have to do the work to pay for that ageing population. Even in an economy where more than 2.5 million people are unemployed, there are jobs that go unfilled because of a shortage of skills or lack of interest from locals.At the same time as talking tough, the Macron administration wants to double the number of foreign students to about 500,000 by 2027, remove the bureaucratic blocks to getting visas and attract engineering talent from China, India and the U.S. via flexible "tech visas."So it's evident that talking up quotas is almost entirely political, a way of trying to pacify voters over the inevitable future upward trajectory of immigration. This isn't just a French problem: Voter attitudes are hardening across Europe, with a 2018 Pew survey of 10 EU countries finding 51% on average wanted fewer migrants. Macron wants to nullify the populist threat on this issue.So far at least, his effort to address blue-collar concerns doesn't appear to be alienating his core white-collar support. An Elabe poll this week found 64% of French people were in favor of "economic migrant" quotas, with most support among center-right and centrist voters. Le Pen's supporters were less impressed. She pointed out, not entirely unfairly, that Macron didn't want to cut immigration at all.Regardless of his actual intentions, Macron is playing a risky game. Right-wing opponents will accuse him of not going far enough, while tougher rhetoric on migrant workers would upset his urban base. His predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy also tried to win support for immigration quotas in 2007, but his lurch rightward didn't deliver a second term.The U.K. example is instructive. Prime Minister David Cameron's failed promise to cut net yearly migration to the "tens of thousands" led directly to the Brexit vote. Taking back control is an alluring promise to voters, but the cost of failure is high.To contact the author of this story: Lionel Laurent at llaurent2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Macron Is Playing With Fire on Immigration Quotas Posted: 07 Nov 2019 11:00 PM PST  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Emmanuel Macron wants to "take back control" of immigration in France. At first glance, his government's forthright language — and its aspirations for a system of numerical "quotas" similar to Canada's or Australia's — sounds a lot like the populist clarion call that won Nigel Farage the Brexit referendum.There are differences, of course. This is about migration from outside the European Union, whereas Farage and his fellow Brexiters were angry about the U.K.'s lack of control over migrant numbers from eastern Europe. And Macron would no doubt say that he just wants the right level of immigration to meet the needs of the French economy. But he appears to have one eye too on trying to neutralize his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen, who's tied with Macron in the polls. It's a political ploy that risks backfiring.In 2018, non-Europeans accounted for about 256,000 French residency cards, or titres de sejour. That sounds huge, but the proposed quotas would only hit those moving explicitly for work, which was a small slice of the pie at about 33,500 last year. The rest are mainly students, family members, and asylum-seekers. And even though "quotas" sounds draconian, these ones look more like aspirational targets defined by corporate sectors. They'll probably end up very close to current levels anyway.As with the rest of the western world, France certainly needs immigration. By 2050 it will have about 9 million more over-65s than it did in 2013. Somebody will have to do the work to pay for that ageing population. Even in an economy where more than 2.5 million people are unemployed, there are jobs that go unfilled because of a shortage of skills or lack of interest from locals.At the same time as talking tough, the Macron administration wants to double the number of foreign students to about 500,000 by 2027, remove the bureaucratic blocks to getting visas and attract engineering talent from China, India and the U.S. via flexible "tech visas."So it's evident that talking up quotas is almost entirely political, a way of trying to pacify voters over the inevitable future upward trajectory of immigration. This isn't just a French problem: Voter attitudes are hardening across Europe, with a 2018 Pew survey of 10 EU countries finding 51% on average wanted fewer migrants. Macron wants to nullify the populist threat on this issue.So far at least, his effort to address blue-collar concerns doesn't appear to be alienating his core white-collar support. An Elabe poll this week found 64% of French people were in favor of "economic migrant" quotas, with most support among center-right and centrist voters. Le Pen's supporters were less impressed. She pointed out, not entirely unfairly, that Macron didn't want to cut immigration at all.Regardless of his actual intentions, Macron is playing a risky game. Right-wing opponents will accuse him of not going far enough, while tougher rhetoric on migrant workers would upset his urban base. His predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy also tried to win support for immigration quotas in 2007, but his lurch rightward didn't deliver a second term.The U.K. example is instructive. Prime Minister David Cameron's failed promise to cut net yearly migration to the "tens of thousands" led directly to the Brexit vote. Taking back control is an alluring promise to voters, but the cost of failure is high.To contact the author of this story: Lionel Laurent at llaurent2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Boris Johnson Wants the Hardest of EU Trade Deals Posted: 07 Nov 2019 11:00 PM PST  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- British voters are being hit over the head with the key message of Boris Johnson's campaign for the Dec. 12 election: In speeches and on posters and on campaign flyers is the promise that his government would "get Brexit done" quickly and move on to other things.The Conservative Party is in a hurry. Johnson's team is promising that Brexit will happen so fast that he won't need the full time available to negotiate a trade deal with the European Union. Britain could if it wanted push this process out to 2022, but Trade Secretary Liz Truss tweeted this week that "we will not be extending the Brexit transition period beyond 2020. The British people have waited long enough." On Tuesday, her cabinet colleague Michael Gove promised the U.K. would have a trade deal by the end of next year.If we're being generous, we'd say this is normal campaign bravado, intended to keep hardline Brexit voters warm. If it's not, Britain is heading for a much harder Brexit than most people realize.The 11th-hour agreement Johnson struck with the EU provides for an orderly exit (the divorce part of things) and then a transition period during which the all-important trade relationship will be negotiated. That deal will determine the entirety of the U.K.'s relationship with the EU, including trade in goods and services, but also security and other ties. The government has until July 1 to request an extension of one or two years.The real cost of Brexit, and the opportunity for new trade deals with the U.S. and other nations, will depend on that second negotiation. Johnson says it can be fast and advantageous. Neither is likely.The prime minister says he wants a bare-bones free trade agreement with the EU, often referred to as "Canada plus plus," signifying something similar to the EU's agreement with Canada alongside extra provisions on services and security. Canada's deal took seven years to agree. Johnson claims a U.K.-EU free trade deal would be a comparative cinch because the two sides are starting from a harmonized position.But most trade deals are about advancing integration, not decoupling. Some of these discussions will be fraught. Moreover, there will only be a few months between negotiations beginning in earnest and the July deadline for extending the transition. That gives the EU nearly all the leverage.As for Johnson's claim that this will be advantageous, compared to what? A simple free trade agreement would be at the very hard end of a hard Brexit as it avoids participation in the single market, the EU customs union and it wouldn't promise a level playing field on competition, tax and social and environmental protections.Such an agreement would seriously limit the U.K.'s market access to the EU. It would avoid the potential for a truly destabilizing no-deal Brexit and it would be better than just trading on World Trade Organization terms, but not by a big margin. It would cost the U.K. more than the Brexit deal agreed by Johnson's predecessor Theresa May, according to research by the U.K. in a Changing Europe think tank.The best Britain can hope for is the removal of tariffs and quotas on goods. But, as the Center for European Reform's Sam Lowe points out in a paper published this week, even that will depend on how far it submits to the EU's level playing field demands.And tariffs and quotas aren't the only trade frictions. Trade deals include so-called rules of origin provisions that require exporters to prove that their products were largely made in the U.K. Many companies would find the compliance costs too high to bother.Lowe also notes that EU companies exporting to third countries with whom the EU has trade agreements — such as Korea or Canada — would no longer be able to count British parts in their own rules-of-origin certifications, an exclusion that would put U.K. car industry suppliers at a serious disadvantage.Then there are the customs declarations, inspections, payments of tariffs (where they exist), Value Added Tax and excise duties. The EU's ultra-strict regime for food and animal-product checks also means extensive inspections and controls.A longer transition period would let U.K. companies adjust. Some would want to move to manufacture within the EU. Relocating would be especially attractive for services companies, who would face particular frictions under new trading rules.The question of services has received very little discussion, perhaps because things like insurance contracts are less tangible than car parts. It's hard to envisage a trade agreement scenario that won't hurt U.K. services. While grants of EU "equivalency" for British services and other mutual recognition agreements would protect some of the services trade, Lowe estimates in another CER paper that the impact of a bare-bones free trade agreement would be substantial.Such an agreement would also need to be scrutinized by members of Parliament. The 2010 Constitutional Reform and Governance Act allows lawmakers to object to its ratification. But we don't yet know, of course, whether the new intake of MPs will prove as rebellious on Brexit as the last lot.So we're back to guessing what Brexit will mean in the end, the question that dogged May in her botched election campaign in 2017. Johnson can possibly have a quick trade deal, or he can have one that reduces some of the cost of Brexit. He can't have both.To contact the author of this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| France reopens contested Jewish tomb in east Jerusalem Posted: 07 Nov 2019 10:21 PM PST  French authorities reopened one of Jerusalem's most magnificent ancient tombs to the public for the first time in over a decade, despite a dispute over access to the archaeological-cum-holy site in the city's volatile eastern half. After several aborted attempts, the French Consulate General reopened the Tomb of the Kings last month. France, which has managed the property since the late 19th century, closed the site for an extensive $1.1 million restoration in 2009.
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| This Trade Rally Is One Tweet Away From a Crash Posted: 07 Nov 2019 10:18 PM PST  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Everything is awesome in financial markets. The sense that a trade deal may finally be on the cards sent stocks and crude soaring in the U.S. Thursday, while flight-to-safety trades such as bonds and gold slumped. Both sides seem to be moving toward a phase one agreement that would involve jointly reducing tariffs in return for vaguer concessions on the underlying issues."If there's a phase one trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg."If China, U.S. reach a phase-one deal, both sides should roll back existing additional tariffs," China's Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said earlier.There's a laconic warning buried inside both of those statements: "If."It's certainly possible that President Donald Trump is tiring of the trade war and as desperate to get an agreement on the table as Beijing seems to think. But the current febrile atmosphere appears to have left the fundamentals of this dispute behind. A single tweet from @realdonaldtrump could be enough to puncture the party mood.Consider some of the things you might expect to be seeing if a significant agreement was really in the works. China is well aware of the importance of the bilateral trade deficit in Washington, and one of the most promising areas for any agreement is to sharply increase imports of American agricultural and mineral products.Yet China's biggest oil producer, state-owned PetroChina Co., is behaving as if the opposite plan is underway. In results last week, the company reported its trailing 12-month capital spending rose to the highest level since 2014, thanks to a government push to lessen China's dependence on imported fuel.PetroChina's returns on invested capital are already the worst of the oil majors, and pressure to extract more oil and gas from China's unpromising geology will make that situation worse. A country that was serious about balancing out the trade relationship with the U.S. and making the most productive use of state companies' cash would be looking for ways to tap America's energy boom instead.It's a similar case with agriculture. China could increase its imports of poultry, beef, pork and other products by as much as $53 billion just by removing current constraints on trade, according to a study last year by Minghao Li, Wendong Zhang and Dermot Hayes of Iowa State University.If anything, that's probably low-balling it: You could add $10 billion to the total just by taking soybean imports back to where they were before the current round of trade tensions cut that trade close to zero. One only needs to look at China's trade data released Friday to see that the opposite is happening. The surplus with the U.S. may be narrowing, but on a global, trailing 12-month basis it was the widest it's been since May 2017. Part of that is simply the weakness of domestic demand. But hosting jazzy import conferences won't change the fact that President Xi Jinping's praise of zili gengsheng, or self-reliance, is just as pointed a retreat from trade as Trump's "Make America Great Again" mantra.All this comes before even touching on issues around intellectual property, technology transfer and state involvement in the economy, which were ostensibly the reasons for this trade war in the first place. China continues to make quiet progress on the first front as if the trade war wasn't happening; and formal technology transfer is shrinking, too, although stories of outright industrial espionage abound. On the third point, the Chinese state is, if anything, becoming an even more dominant economic actor than it was hitherto.What about this backdrop makes a deal seem so imminent? Beijing appears unlikely to make the sorts of concessions on the main issues under contention that would allow Trump to present an agreement as a personal victory. Trump, for his part, is presiding over a stock market that — thanks in part to all the optimism about a trade deal — hits fresh records every day, giving him no incentive to sign on to a deal that looks like a climb-down.Right now, markets are behaving as if the whole structure of trade impediments built up over the past two years could start getting dismantled within weeks. It's quite as likely that, in the white heat of a breakdown, the levies suspended last month are reinstated, only to be followed by the final round still due to kick in Dec. 15. Should that come about, the current exuberance could turn into a hangover awfully quick.To contact the author of this story: David Fickling at dfickling@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Rachel Rosenthal at rrosenthal21@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities, as well as industrial and consumer companies. He has been a reporter for Bloomberg News, Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the Guardian.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Brussels Edition: Spanish Stalemate, Tariff Reprieve Posted: 07 Nov 2019 10:15 PM PST ![Brussels Edition: Spanish Stalemate, Tariff Reprieve]( "Brussels Edition: Spanish Stalemate, Tariff Reprieve") (Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every weekday morning.Spaniards head for the polls on Sunday for another general election that again may not change much, or at least not immediately. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's failure to form a government over the summer made a fresh round of voting inevitable, but the outcome may be the same political stalemate as the last ballot held in April. Tensions in Catalonia, the exhumation of the late dictator Francisco Franco and slowing economic growth have all served to sharpen animosities and blunt the chances of compromise. The threat of a barely tolerable fifth election in as many years may, however, concentrate minds. What's HappeningTaxes and Libra | After yesterday's Eurogroup exposed familiar divisions over banking-market integration, finance ministers will today get a chance to butt heads over zombie taxes on everything from booze to tech giants. They'll also discuss how to regulate crypto assets like Facebook's Libra, with a common stance targeted for next month.Tariff Reprieve | Donald Trump won't impose duties on European cars next week as threatened, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said. "Trump will ruffle a bit, but there will not be any automobile tariffs," according to Juncker, who is usually right when he's so categorical. But then Trump isn't known for his predictability.Romanian Poll | Romanian President Klaus Iohannis looks to be on course for a second term in power. Voters this weekend will probably reward him for helping put the country's most powerful politician behind bars for corruption and steering a course back toward the EU's mainstream. A runoff two weeks later will likely be required to seal his victory.Eastern Challenges | Shrinking populations, eroding competitiveness, unwise social policies. After three decades of unprecedented advances in incomes and living standards, the EU's eastern economies that abruptly swapped communism for capitalism when the Berlin Wall fell are facing new challenges.Week Ahead | EU foreign ministers on Monday will try to put a brave face to the imminent death of the Iran nuclear deal and will probably adopt the legal framework for the imposition of sanctions on Turkey over its drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean. On Tuesday, defense ministers may seek an accord over the participation of non-EU companies in joint military projects. In Case You Missed ItWar of Words | Another fissure between Germany and France opened up after French President Emmanuel Macron declared NATO was undergoing "brain death." Merkel, who happened to be hosting Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin yesterday, called Macron's words "drastic" and NATO "irreplaceable."U.K. Latest | The U.K. election campaign is in full swing, with the two main rivals competing on pending pledges, and the Tories are fighting for survival in key battlegrounds. Here's everything you need to know about Boris Johnson's latest gamble. Data Deals | EU merger watchdogs will take a close look at any deals driven by a desire to combine user data, antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager warned in response to questions about Google's $2.1 billion bid for smartwatch maker Fitbit. She is considering new rules to rein in how companies collect and use information, calling tech giants "robot vacuum cleaners." Big Spenders | By Christine Lagarde's own definition, the European Central Bank president's desire for a government spending boost in the euro area can now focus on a dozen of its members. These are the countries, which, according to the latest EU projections, have space to spend money for stimulus.Wall Fallout | The world saw German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall 30 years ago as a historic success, but for the people of East Germany, it was a different story. Here's more on how the battle to unify the country still rages.Chart of the DayThe Commission cut its euro-area growth and inflation outlook amid global trade tensions and policy uncertainty, warning that the bloc's economic resilience won't last forever. The EU's executive arm sees momentum remaining muted through 2021, forecasting an expansion of 1.2% for that year. At 1.3%, inflation is projected to remain well below the ECB's goal.Today's AgendaAll times CET.8 a.m. EU finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss climate finance, digital taxation and education EU education ministers meet in Brussels to discuss lifelong learning, artificial intelligence and debate the importance of education for the economy with their finance counterpartsLike the Brussels Edition?Don't keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here. We also publish the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the latest on the U.K.'s departure from the EU. For even more: Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access for full global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our Brussels bureau chief know.\--With assistance from Andrew Langley, Nikos Chrysoloras and Alexander Weber.To contact the authors of this story: Viktoria Dendrinou in Brussels at vdendrinou@bloomberg.netCharles Penty in Madrid at cpenty@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Heather Harris at hharris5@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| 'Secure the oil': Trump's Syria strategy leaves Pentagon perplexed Posted: 07 Nov 2019 10:00 PM PST  While US military says mission is to defeat Isis, president insists taking oil is fair 'reimbursement', but violates rules of war US forces at an undisclosed location in Syria in October. They returned to Syria to protect oil fields, days after President Trump ordered their withdrawal. Photograph: Branden Bourque/US MARINE COPRS/DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE/EPAUS officials are struggling to explain the mission of up to a thousand US troops in Syria, who have mostly taken up positions near oil fields in response to Donald Trump's orders.A fortnight after ordering a complete evacuation of US troops ahead of a Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria, abandoning Kurdish partners in the fight against Isis, Trump changed his mind and said some forces should stay but only to "secure the oil".So as hundreds US special forces are being flown out of Syria, hundreds of other soldiers, equipped with armoured vehicles, have been driving into the region, heading for small-scale oil patches Der Ezzor and Hasakah provinces, but without a clear idea of what they were supposed to do there.> I like oil. We're keeping the oil> > Donald TrumpThe unease of US officials implementing the policy became apparent on Thursday when an internal report by the top US diplomat in northern Syria, William Roebuck, was leaked to the New York Times. In the report, Roebuck complains that "we didn't try" to deter the Turkish incursion, which has killed hundreds of civilians and displaced hundreds of thousands.Who is in control in north-eastern Syria?Until Turkey launched its offensive there on 9 October, the region was controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which comprises militia groups representing a range of ethnicities, though its backbone is Kurdish. Since the Turkish incursion, the SDF has lost much of its territory and appears to be losing its grip on key cities. On 13 October, Kurdish leaders agreed to allow Syrian regime forces to enter some cities to protect them from being captured by Turkey and its allies. The deal effectively hands over control of huge swathes of the region to Damascus.That leaves north-eastern Syria divided between Syrian regime forces, Syrian opposition militia and their Turkish allies, and areas still held by the SDF – for now.On 17 October Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, agreed with US vice-president Mike Pence, to suspend Ankara's operation for five days in order to allow Kurdish troops to withdraw. The following week, on 22 October, Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin agreed on the parameters of the proposed Turkish "safe zone" in Syria.How did the SDF come to control the region?Before the SDF was formed in 2015, the Kurds had created their own militias who mobilised during the Syrian civil war to defend Kurdish cities and villages and carve out what they hoped would eventually at least become a semi-autonomous province. In late 2014, the Kurds were struggling to fend off an Islamic State siege of Kobane, a major city under their control. With US support, including arms and airstrikes, the Kurds managed to beat back Isis and went on to win a string of victories against the radical militant group. Along the way the fighters absorbed non-Kurdish groups, changed their name to the SDF and grew to include 60,000 soldiers.Why does Turkey oppose the Kurds?For years, Turkey has watched the growing ties between the US and SDF with alarm. Significant numbers of the Kurds in the SDF were also members of the People's Protection Units (YPG), an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) that has fought an insurgency against the Turkish state for more than 35 years in which as many as 40,000 people have died. The PKK initially called for independence and now demands greater autonomy for Kurds inside Turkey.Turkey claims the PKK has continued to wage war on the Turkish state, even as it has assisted in the fight against Isis. The PKK is listed as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, the UK, Nato and others and this has proved awkward for the US and its allies, who have chosen to downplay the SDF's links to the PKK, preferring to focus on their shared objective of defeating Isis.What are Turkey's objectives on its southern border?Turkey aims firstly to push the SDF away from its border, creating a 20-mile (32km) buffer zone that would have been jointly patrolled by Turkish and US troops until Trump's recent announcement that American soldiers would withdraw from the region.Erdoğan has also said he would seek to relocate more than 1 million Syrian refugees in this "safe zone", both removing them from his country (where their presence has started to create a backlash) and complicating the demographic mix in what he fears could become an autonomous Kurdish state on his border.How would a Turkish incursion impact on Isis?Nearly 11,000 Isis fighters, including almost 2,000 foreigners, and tens of thousands of their wives and children, are being held in detention camps and hastily fortified prisons across north-eastern Syria.SDF leaders have warned they cannot guarantee the security of these prisoners if they are forced to redeploy their forces to the frontlines of a war against Turkey. They also fear Isis could use the chaos of war to mount attacks to free their fighters or reclaim territory. On 11 October, it was reported that at least five detained Isis fighters had escaped a prison in the region. Two days later, 750 foreign women affiliated to Isis and their children managed to break out of a secure annex in the Ain Issa camp for displaced people, according to SDF officials.It is unclear which detention sites the SDF still controls and the status of the prisoners inside.Michael Safi"US policy in eastern Syria these days seems to be an attempt at building a plane already in flight," Kayleigh Thomas, research associate for the Middle East Security programme at the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), said."For example, if Syrian government forces were to attack, would [US troops] then respond in self-defence? It looks like some of those legal questions are still being hashed out."The mission initially sounded straightforward as Trump presented it.A US military armoured vehicle drives in a patrol past a an oil well in Rumaylan in Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province. Photograph: Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images"We want to bring our soldiers home. But we did leave soldiers because we're keeping the oil," he said on 1 November. "I like oil. We're keeping the oil."The president suggested that taking possession of Syrian natural resources would be fair "reimbursement" for the cost of going to war there.The problem for military planners is such pillage of a foreign country is a violation of the laws of war as applied in the Nuremberg trials and commonly accepted since.It could also violate the Authorisation for Use of Military Force granted by Congress to the US government in the immediate wake of the 9/11 attacks, intended for operations against al-Qaida and "associated forces", which has been used to justify armed intervention across the Middle East.map of syriaThe Pentagon sought to bring clarity on Thursday, by insisting that the mission was unchanged, and that US troops were in Syria solely to defeat Isis in partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)."The securing of the oil fields is a subordinate task to that mission. And the purpose of that task is to deny ISIS, the revenues from that oil, infrastructure," Rear Admiral William Byrne, the vice director of the joint staff, told reporters. "I'm not sure Isis is going away yet. And that's why we're there: to help them go away."A member of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) stands guard as US military armoured vehicles and soldiers patrol near an oil well in Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province. Photograph: Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty ImagesHe added that the US would continue to arm the SDF, who are currently in conflict with Turkey, a Nato ally."We're still going to provide them with the support and ability to ... continue the fight against Isis," Byrne said, describing the relationship with the Kurdish-led force as "shoulder to shoulder", a phrase he repeated four times..The Pentagon spokesman, Jonathan Hoffman, said part the aim of deploying troops to the oil fields was to ensure that any revenues from their production would go to the SDF.The new talking points stress continuity and present an argument for the legality of the deployment, but they directly contradict the president. Apart from his continued insistence that the US should benefit from the oil, Trump has declared that Isis is totally or "largely" defeated, particularly after the killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and that taking care of the remnants was a job for someone else.Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute said that some of the confusion stems from the internal dynamics of the administration in which senior policy-makers, like Syria envoy, James Jeffrey, have exploited Trump's obsession with oil to achieve other objectives."The whole oil thing is by and large a ploy to get presidential support to hold together a US presence, to shore up relations with the SDF and the tribes in the east who have been anti-regime and anti-Iran," Lister said.Nicholas Heras, an analyst on the CNAS Middle East programme, said the real reason for sending mechanised US units to the eastern oilfields is to keep the oil out of the hands of the Assad regime and its Russian backers."To counter Isis you need lighter, more agile forces," Heras said. With winter coming, and the regime increasing desperate for energy supplies, control of the oil supply maintains some leverage in the region. In February 2018, US forces fought an intense battle with regime-backed militiamen and Russian mercenaries around a gas plant outside Deir Ezzor city.The defence secretary, Mark Esper has suggested that one of missions of US troops would be to continue to deny access to the oil to the regime and Russia. The Pentagon sought to play that down on Thursday, focusing on a potential Isis threat, but Hoffman said that US troops would defend themselves against any attackers."Everyone in the region knows where American forces are," the spokesman said. "We work to ensure that no one approaches or has hostile intent to our forces. And if they do our commanders maintain the right of self defense."US forces in Syria's Hasakeh province. Photograph: Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty ImagesThe contradictions and uncertainties underlying the US presence are likely to come to the fore in the next few days, as Turkish, Syrian regime and Russian troops move into previously SDF-run areas and as the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, visits the White House.At Thursday's Pentagon briefing, Byrne insisted the ceasefire negotiated in northeastern Syria was holding apart from "relatively small skirmishes".However, Turkish-backed Arab militias are reported to be pushing towards the town of Tal Tamr, which is outside the zone Kurdish forces agreed to withdraw from.Steve Gumaer, the head of the Partners Relief & Development aid organisation, who was in Tel Tamr last week said the current front was only 4km north of the town."All the time we were there has been non-stop fighting. People are being killed and injured every day," Gumaer said.A senior administration official expressed concern about the possibility that the militias involved around Tal Tamr were not under Ankara's full control."It's basically these Turkish-supported Syrian Arab militias that are in there," the official said. "And we were very concerned because they were seemingly heading towards the city of Tal Tamr, which is a relatively large Christian area, which everybody acknowledges is outside of [the agreed Turkish zone].""The problem is that the people doing the fighting are these ill-disciplined Arab militias, some of whom we've worked with in the past when we were arming the opposition, but many of whom are ill-disciplined, and relatively radical, and their ideology is essentially Islamic ideology."
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