| Lebanon’s Hariri Resigns After Street Protests Turn Violent Posted: 29 Oct 2019 05:24 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad Hariri stepped down Tuesday after two weeks of anti-government protests descended into violence."Today, I won't hide that I reached a dead end, and it's time for a major shock to confront the crisis," Hariri said in a televised address. "I'm going to the presidential palace in Baabda to submit my government's resignation to the president and to the Lebanese people everywhere in response to their will."Hariri's resignation came hours after supporters of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah party attacked demonstrators in central Beirut and destroyed their tents.Live television footage showed hundreds of men throwing rocks at protesters who had blocked a major Beirut intersection and beating them with sticks and fists. The mob then descended on the main protest area in the capital, tearing down tents and setting them ablaze while warning that they wouldn't allow their political leaders -- Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and his ally, parliament speaker Nabih Berri -- to be criticized or insulted.The show of violence by Lebanon's two main Shiite Muslim parties is a turning point in the uprising, which protesters say has transcended for the first time the sectarian and party divisions that tend to dominate Lebanese politics.Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said in a statement on Tuesday that "the Lebanese people want an efficient and effective government, economic reform, and an end to endemic corruption. Any violence or provocative actions must stop, and we call upon Lebanon's army and security services to continue to ensure the rights and safety of the protesters."The stakes are high for Lebanon, which straddles the region's geopolitical fault lines and has often been a proxy battleground for the Middle East's broader conflicts. The 15-year civil war ended in 1990 but still haunts a country where the warlords became the rulers and have remained in power ever since. It is this political class that protesters accuse of entrenched corruption that has brought the economy to the brink of crisis.United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged all sides to avoid violence."He calls on all political actors to seek a political solution that will preserve the stability of the country and respond to the aspirations of the Lebanese people," according to an e-mailed statement from his press office. "He calls on all actors to avoid violence and respect the rights to peaceful assembly and expression."How Lebanon's Unrest Is Both New and More of the Same: QuickTakeCelebrations broke out in central Beirut after Hariri announcement, with protesters thanking him for taking the first step to address popular demands. But protesters who began to regroup amid wrecked and smoldering tents said they now wanted other top officials to follow suit.Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have taken to the streets across the country since Oct. 17, demanding the ouster of a ruling class they say has lined its pockets from the public purse while neglecting services and living standards.The government presented an emergency package last week that sought to address some of the grievances by laying out plans to rescue the country's finances and set up an anti-graft committee. But it was rejected by demonstrators who said they would accept nothing less than the resignation of the government and key officials.Since then, Hariri has sought to agree with his rivals on a new cabinet lineup to satisfy the crowds without leaving a political vacuum in one of the world's most debt-laden economies. But he faced opposition from Hezbollah, an armed group that performed well in the last elections and is part of the largest coalition in parliament and government.Nasrallah and his Christian allies in the political party of President Michel Aoun have opposed a change in the government, saying it could lead to chaos. He has accused the protesters of being funded by unspecified foreign agencies and embassies, and warned that the standoff might spark civil war if they did not end their road closures. Those accusations were widely repeated by the mobs who overran the protest camp, denouncing demonstrators as drug addicts with loose morals.According to the constitution, Aoun must now hold parliamentary consultations and name a new prime minister who will be tasked with forming a new government. Demonstrators have called for a cabinet of technocrats to lead the country through the promised reforms and toward early elections based on a more equitable election law.Hezbollah, considered a terrorist group by the U.S. and some European and other countries, has already seen its income dwindle as the U.S. has imposed sanctions on some of its members as well as its main backer, Iran.Lebanon is struggling to find fresh sources of funding as the foreign inflows on which it has traditionally relied have dried up. Promises of assistance from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Lebanon's former benefactors, have largely failed to arrive. The government needs to cut spending, raise taxes and fight corruption to unlock some $11 billion in international aid pledges made at a Paris donor conference in 2018, but Hezbollah had opposed measures that would hurt low-income families that form large swaths of its support-base.Lebanon sovereign dollar bonds extended losses after Hariri's speech as the country entered an unpredictable new phase. Bonds due in 2021 bonds fell 4.2 cents to 72.385 cents on the dollar, taking the bid yield to a record high of 34.6%.French Foreign MinisterJean-Yves Le Drian said his country was still determined to help the people of Lebanon but that would require a commitment to change from the political class."The conditions for stability is to listen to the voice and the demands of the population. Are Lebanon's political leaders ready to run Lebanon together?" Le Drian said in the national assembly. "To put the country's collective interest ahead of their interests? That is the question asked by the resignation of PM Hariri."(Updates with Pompeo statement, in sixth paragraph)\--With assistance from David Wainer.To contact the reporters on this story: Lin Noueihed in Beirut at lnoueihed@bloomberg.net;Dana Khraiche in Beirut at dkhraiche@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Lin Noueihed at lnoueihed@bloomberg.net, Mark Williams, Larry LiebertFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Turkey Sanctions Pass U.S. House as Lawmakers Press Trump Posted: 29 Oct 2019 05:15 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan bill Tuesday threatening to sanction Turkey, warning that a deal struck with the Trump administration won't necessarily save the NATO ally from economic punishment for its military operation in northern Syria.The bill to sanction Turkish leaders, Halkbank and other financial institutions, and restrict the military's access to financing and arms passed 403-16, a veto-proof majority that reflects the widespread outrage over President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Syria.Lawmakers say that decision opened the door to Turkish forces and allied militias to take territory controlled by the Kurds, an ethnic minority that fought with the U.S. to defeat Islamic State.The House vote demonstrates that Congress still wants to exert influence over Middle East policy, even after Trump on Sunday announced the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an operation led by U.S. troops. It also suggests that lawmakers are not mollified by the deal that Vice President Mike Pence struck with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to halt hostilities in the region.The president could waive the sanctions for up to 90 days at a time after certifying to Congress that Turkey is upholding the cease-fire."President Trump has let Erdogan off scot-free," House Foreign Affairs Chairman Eliot Engel said on the House floor. "It's up to Congress to act to make it clear where the American government stands."The bill "incentivizes Turkey to comply with the cease-fire," said Michael McCaul, the top Foreign Affairs Republican and co-sponsor of the bill with Engel. "If they do not, there will be consequences in the form of crippling sanctions."But in a series of tweets on Tuesday night, Fahrettin Altun, an Erdogan spokesman, said that the bill "threatening sanctions against Turkey is in direct contradiction to the spirit of a strategic alliance.""These brazen efforts to damage our relationship will have long lasting detrimental consequences on many areas of existing bilateral cooperation," he wrote in another post.Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Jim Risch said his committee soon may consider a similar bill he introduced along with top committee Democrat Bob Menendez, although the meeting hasn't been scheduled yet."We've been working at that feverishly," Risch said. "Republicans and Democrats are singing off the same sheet of music on this."The bill, H.R. 4695, would sanction senior Turkish officials and prohibit them from entering the U.S. It would also prohibit the transfer of U.S. defense materiel to Turkey for use in Syria, and it would require the Pentagon and State Department to submit plans to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State.It would sanction Halkbank, a state-owned bank, as well as other financial institutions determined to have facilitated transactions that helped finance the invasion. It would also require the administration to impose sanctions already mandated over the purchase by Turkey of a Russian-made missile-defense system.If the Senate passes an alternative version, the two bills would have to be reconciled before being sent to Trump.Engel of New York and McCaul of Texas introduced the House bill earlier this month amid bipartisan opposition to the troop withdrawal that left the Kurds vulnerable to attacks from Turkey, which had grown increasingly suspicious of Kurdish autonomy in neighboring Syria.The House on Oct. 16 adopted a symbolic resolution by a 354-60 vote to disapprove of the U.S. withdrawal and to call on Erdogan to "immediately cease unilateral military action" in the region. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confronted Trump in a closed-door White House meeting about his strategy in the region and cited the resolution as proof that his own party didn't support his Syria policy.Pence and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo were sent to Ankara shortly thereafter to negotiate a temporary halt to the Turkish military campaign. Trump later declared the effort a success, converting it to a "permanent" cease-fire in northern Syria. At the same time, Erdogan said he had reached a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to establish a "safe zone" along the border.Trump's Syria envoy, James Jeffrey, told three congressional committees last week that removing troops from the region would make the fight against ISIS more difficult."If you remove those troops before that mission is complete, then you have a problem," Jeffrey told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "And we do have a problem right now."In announcing Baghdadi's death Sunday, Trump said eliminating the terrorist leader would have no bearing on his plans to withdraw troops from the area."Look, we don't want to keep soldiers between Syria and Turkey for the next 200 years," Trump said. "They have been fighting for hundreds of years. We're out."Additional Sanctions BillsRepublican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland have introduced their own sanctions legislation that would also target Turkey's energy industry and sovereign debt. A similar bill was introduced in the House by Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming and 90 other Republicans, but that measure is unlikely to get a vote without Democratic co-sponsors.There were some words of caution from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who warned his colleagues to "think extremely carefully" before using a tool like sanctions that could push a NATO ally "into the arms of the Russians." Speaking last week on the Senate floor, the Kentucky Republican said he's "open to the Senate considering them," but only after weighing all possible consequences.McConnell did, however, introduce his own version of a resolution condemning Turkey's hostilities in northern Syria and expressing support for a continued U.S. presence in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.The Senate could vote on that mostly symbolic measure as soon as this week.(Updates with Erdogan spokesman's comments, starting in eighth paragraph)To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Flatley in Washington at dflatley1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Laurie AsséoFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UK's new Brexit deal worse than continued uncertainty - NIESR Posted: 29 Oct 2019 05:01 PM PDT ![UK's new Brexit deal worse than continued uncertainty - NIESR]( "UK's new Brexit deal worse than continued uncertainty - NIESR") Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal would hurt Britain's economy more than further delays and continued uncertainty about leaving the European Union, a think tank said on Wednesday. Johnson has said his deal is the only solution to the uncertainty that has weighed on the economy since the 2016 referendum. By contrast, the opposition Labour Party wants to negotiate a new deal and put it to a second referendum, which could overturn 2016's result.
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| UPDATE 1-China warns U.S. that criticism over Uighurs not 'helpful' for trade talks Posted: 29 Oct 2019 04:48 PM PDT ![UPDATE 1-China warns U.S. that criticism over Uighurs not 'helpful' for trade talks]( "UPDATE 1-China warns U.S. that criticism over Uighurs not 'helpful' for trade talks") The United States and 22 other countries at the United Nations pushed China on Tuesday to stop detaining ethnic Uighurs and other Muslims, prompting China's U.N. envoy to warn it was not "helpful" for trade talks between Beijing and Washington. China has been widely condemned for setting up complexes in remote Xinjiang that it describes as "vocational training centers" to stamp out extremism and give people new skills.
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| Australian sentenced to 36 years for murder, rape of Israeli Posted: 29 Oct 2019 04:34 PM PDT  An Australian judge sentenced a man to 36 years in prison on Tuesday for the murder and rape of an Israeli student whom he bludgeoned into unconsciousness moments after she stepped off a tram in Melbourne before setting her corpse on fire. Victoria state Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Hollingworth ordered Codey Herrmann, 21, to serve at least 30 years behind bars for his crimes against 21-year-old Aiia Maasarwe last January. The judge said she would have sentenced Herrmann to 40 years in prison with 35 years to be served before he became eligible for parole if he had not pleaded guilty in the face of an overwhelming prosecution case.
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| China and West clash over claims Beijing oppresses Uighurs Posted: 29 Oct 2019 04:31 PM PDT ![China and West clash over claims Beijing oppresses Uighurs]( "China and West clash over claims Beijing oppresses Uighurs") China and the West are clashing at the U.N.'s human rights committee over claims that Beijing systematically oppresses ethnic minority Muslims. The exchange took place Tuesday during a session on racial discrimination where Belarus read a statement on behalf of 54 countries supporting China's actions against "terrorism, separatism and religious extremism" in Xinjiang province and Britain read a statement on behalf of 23 countries expressing concern about "credible reports" of mass detention of ethnic Uighurs.
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| Lebanese prime minister quits amid anti-government protests Posted: 29 Oct 2019 04:24 PM PDT  Lebanon's prime minister resigned Tuesday, bowing to one of the central demands of anti-government demonstrators shortly after baton-wielding Hezbollah supporters rampaged through the main protest camp in Beirut, torching tents, smashing plastic chairs and chasing away protesters. The demonstrators later returned to the camp in time to hear the news that Prime Minister Saad Hariri said he was stepping down after hitting a "dead end" in trying to resolve the crisis, which has paralyzed the country for nearly two weeks.
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| Iran, Russia lash out at US plans to protect oil in Syria Posted: 29 Oct 2019 03:47 PM PDT  Iran and Russia on Tuesday criticized and scoffed at Trump administration plans to protect oil deposits in Syria, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accusing Washington of "illegal" actions. Lavrov joined Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Geneva to lend support to U.N.-backed talks among Syrian government, opposition and civil society delegations on the country's constitution starting Wednesday. The most pointed comments at their joint news conference addressed new Pentagon plans to increase efforts to protect Syria's oil fields from both the Islamic State radical group and the Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian government, even as U.S. forces are withdrawn from other parts of the country.
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| China warns U.S. criticism at U.N. over Xinjiang not 'helpful' for trade talks Posted: 29 Oct 2019 03:38 PM PDT ![China warns U.S. criticism at U.N. over Xinjiang not 'helpful' for trade talks]( "China warns U.S. criticism at U.N. over Xinjiang not 'helpful' for trade talks") China's U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun warned on Tuesday that U.S. criticism at the world body of Beijing's policy in remote Xinjiang was not "helpful" for negotiations between the two countries on a trade deal. The United States, Britain and 21 other states pushed China on Tuesday at the U.N. to stop detaining ethnic Uighurs and other Muslims, a move that was countered by Beijing and some 53 countries jointly defending its "remarkable" rights record.
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| UN urges 'urgent' de-escalation of Bolivia violence Posted: 29 Oct 2019 03:31 PM PDT  The United Nations on Tuesday called for an urgent de-escalation of tensions in Bolivia, where rival supporters of President Evo Morales and opposition leader Carlos Mesa have clashed since a disputed election. Riots broke out after the controversial October 20 election won by Morales but described by Mesa as a "fraud," as rival supporters clashed with each other and security forces. Morales was re-elected in an election that was marred by a sudden and unexplained shift in the vote tally that benefitted the 60-year-old socialist leader.
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| Bipartisan House OKs bill hitting Turkey for Syria incursion Posted: 29 Oct 2019 03:31 PM PDT  A bipartisan bill punishing Turkey for its invasion of northern Syria and illustrating both parties' dismay with President Donald Trump's retreat from the region sailed easily through the House on Tuesday. The bill marks both parties' latest show of disapproval for Trump's decision this month to abandon the United States' longtime Kurdish allies against Islamic State fighters by pulling American forces away from northern Syria. The measure also underscores lawmakers' wariness of the cease-fire that Vice President Mike Pence struck with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and of the subsequent agreement between Turkey and Russia splitting control of the territory .
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| UN chief is blunt: Women remain excluded from peace tables Posted: 29 Oct 2019 03:19 PM PDT ![UN chief is blunt: Women remain excluded from peace tables]( "UN chief is blunt: Women remain excluded from peace tables") Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was unusually blunt on Tuesday: Women are still excluded from many peace negotiations nearly two decades after the U.N. adopted a landmark resolution calling for women to be included in decision-making positions at every level of peacemaking and peacebuilding. Guterres and Mlambo-Ngcuka stressed the stark contrast between support from the U.N.'s 193 member states for the resolution adopted in 2000 on women, peace and security and the reality for women caught in conflict in 2019.
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| The Latest: House OKs bill punishing Turkey for Syria move Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:40 PM PDT  A united House has voted overwhelmingly to punish Turkey for its invasion of northern Syria. The 403-16 roll call was Congress' latest show of dismay over President Donald Trump's policies in the region. The measure would restrict arms sales to Ankara and make it harder for top Turkish officials to have access to their personal assets in the U.S. The sanctions would stay in effect until Turkey withdraws from northern Syria.
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| Jordan recalls ambassador to Israel to protest detentions Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:36 PM PDT  Jordan on Tuesday announced it was recalling its ambassador to Israel for consultations to protest Israel's detention of a pair of Jordanians who have been held without charges for the past two months. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi wrote on Twitter Tuesday that Jordan was taking the step because of Israel's refusal "to heed our legitimate demands" to release the pair. "We hold Israeli government responsible for the lives of our citizens whose health conditions have severely deteriorated in illegal arbitrary detention," he said.
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| The U.K. is on its way to a general election in December Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:18 PM PDT ![The U.K. is on its way to a general election in December]( "The U.K. is on its way to a general election in December") Boris Johnson got his wish.The United Kingdom is all but certain to have a general election on Dec. 12 after MPs backed a bill put forth by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday by a count of 438 to 20, just one day after his previous motion was resoundingly defeated.The bill still needs to be approved by the House of Lords, but it could become law by the end of the week. Assuming that it's approved as expected, U.K. voters will head to the polls in less than two months.This all stems from Brexit (what else could it be at this point, really?). Johnson has so far been unable to get his withdrawal legislation through Parliament, but with the deadline now extended until Jan. 31 of next year, he and other U.K. leaders believe the only way to resolve the stalemate over the country's departure from the European Union will come through a snap election.It sounds like it'll be a doozy, too. Johnson is seeking to regain a Conservative parliamentary majority, while Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn vowed the opposition will "launch the most ambitious and radical campaign" the U.K. has ever seen. "This election is a once-in-a-generation chance to transform our country and take on the vested interests holding people back," Corbyn said. Read more at Bloomberg and BBC.
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| British MPs vote for December election to break Brexit deadlock Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:12 PM PDT  British MPs on Tuesday agreed to hold an early election on December 12, backing Prime Minister Boris Johnson's call to try to break the crippling political deadlock that has seen Brexit delayed three times. "To my British friends, The EU27 has formally adopted the extension.
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| Modi Pushes India Even Further to the Right as Economy Sputters Posted: 29 Oct 2019 02:00 PM PDT ![Modi Pushes India Even Further to the Right as Economy Sputters]( "Modi Pushes India Even Further to the Right as Economy Sputters") (Bloomberg) -- Follow Bloomberg on LINE messenger for all the business news and analysis you need.Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent much of his first term laying the groundwork to transform India into a nation that is both attractive to global investors and unabashedly Hindu. Now he's doubling down.Modi has visited nearly a dozen nations since his landslide re-election win in May, seeking investments from the Middle East, sharing a stage with Donald Trump in Texas and hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping at a seaside resort. He's also clashed with Malaysia and Turkey over a shock decision to scrap autonomy in India's lone Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir.At home, the Kashmir move is one of several that has worried Muslims, who make up about 15% of the broader population. Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, led by his close associate Amit Shah, has spearheaded changes to Muslim divorce laws and updated a registry that could strip citizenship from nearly 2 million people, including many Muslims.Next up, Modi and Shah may seek to build a temple in Ayodhya to mark the birthplace of the Hindu god Ram. Their party has championed a decades-long fight to construct the temple on the same site where Hindu groups razed a 16th century mosque in 1992, sparking riots that killed at least 2,000 people -- most of them Muslims.Modi's assertion of a more muscular foreign policy, combined with moves to placate the Hindu majority, are diverting his base from worries about India's worst economic slowdown in six years. But his ability to maintain support going forward may hinge on passing tough reforms that unleash growth -- and create jobs -- in Asia's third-biggest economy."Modi and Shah can argue that they have a mandate for these actions, given the election victory, and they certainly face little effective opposition in parliament," said Ian Hall, professor at Australia's Griffith University and author of the book Modi and the Reinvention of Indian Foreign Policy. "The crux, however, is whether they can also deliver growth and jobs, and the economic reforms needed to support both."The to-do list is long. The banking system is saddled with bad debt, land is difficult to acquire for public investments and labor laws make it difficult for companies to fire people, pushing the majority of workers into the informal sector. A nationwide goods-and-services tax, or GST, that came into effect in 2017 has failed to deliver expected revenues due to a host of exceptions. And protectionist tendencies have shielded key sectors from foreign competition.Gopal Krishna Agarwal, the BJP's national spokesman on economic issues, said the party has always been "right of center" and aims to focus on infrastructure, tax compliance and contract enforcement to boost growth. At the same time, he said, it will push for a nationwide citizen registry and uniform civil code -- measures minority groups have resisted in the past."We also believe that nationalism and economic growth aren't counter to each other," Agarwal said. "Welfare objectives cannot be met without wealth. Economic growth brings in the cake -- only then can it be distributed."Modi has seen some bright spots. India jumped 14 places to 63rd in the World Bank's annual rankings for ease of doing business released last week. His government announced a $20 billion corporate tax cut, rolled back a levy on foreign funds, injected $10 billion into sick banks and relaxed foreign direct investment rules in coal mining, contract manufacturing and single-brand retail trading.Leveraging PowerBut those moves could take time to show results. The central bank this month lowered India's full-year growth forecast to 6.1%, which would be a seven-year low. The corporate tax cut may further shrink revenues already reeling from the switch to a GST. Bloating federal debt has narrowed the borrowing space for local governments, and the recent stimulus may widen India's combined fiscal deficit to 7.5% -- the highest in eight years.In addition, the federal government has upset some state leaders with initiatives in healthcare, water and sanitation, which are traditionally in the domain of local governments across India's 29 states. Modi has sought to monitor garbage collection and construction of infrastructure through mobile apps, and his health care system is independent of existing state frameworks."This extraordinary centralization of power has been the hallmark of the new government," said Neelanjan Sircar, assistant professor at Ashoka University who has researched Indian state election results. While Modi's increased power can help speed along economic policymaking in a country as complex as India, it also risks backfiring if the government quashes critical voices," he said."This is a trap that governments have fallen into," Sircar said. "And I think we are in this place already."Strong ImageThe government has already take a hard line over criticism of its foreign and trade policy.Modi canceled a planned visit to Ankara after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted India's decision to abrogate Jammu and Kashmir's special status during a speech at the United Nations, according to a local news report. Indian buyers of palm oil have turned to Indonesia for supplies over concern Modi will curb purchases from Malaysia after Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said India had "invaded and occupied" Kashmir.Inside Kashmir, residents still aren't able to operate freely. Some 12 weeks after the surprise announcement by Shah, who is also home affairs minister, the internet remains shut and people's movements are restricted. Elected local political leaders remain detained in state custody. And the region's local police force has been brought under Modi's government in New Delhi.The elevation of Shah has perhaps been the most significant change in Modi's second term. Like the prime minister, Shah is a life-long member of the Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh going back to his college days. His home ministry has control over police forces in Kashmir and six other union territories including the national capital Delhi, and is in the process of implementing a nationwide facial recognition system."In the coming years, we expect Modi to play a very different role -- that of a bigger, international statesman -- while Amit Shah would be the domestic pointsman," said Rahul Verma, a researcher at Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research who wrote a book about identity in Indian politics. "It will be Shah who will unapologetically push the ideological projects."At the top of the list going forward is the temple in Ayodhya, particularly as the mosque's destruction in 1992 turned the BJP into a national political force. India's top court has concluded hearing arguments over who owns the land on which disputed site stands and is expected to deliver a verdict as early as next week.Modi's cabinet ministers including Shah have made statements about implementing a nationwide citizen registry and uniform civil code, which religious minorities and tribal groups have resisted. His allies have also suggested making job and education quotas based on economic class instead of caste.While these moves may play well among Modi's base, India's global reach hinges on its ability to drive the global economy over the next decade. And that remains an open question, particularly if domestic strife makes it harder to find consensus for tough reforms."The U.S. and others have bet big on India: they want it to grow and flourish and play a bigger role. But it will not be able to do that without big and difficult reforms that unleash its economic potential, and without internal peace and stability," said Hall from Griffith University. "As we saw during his first term -- charm offensives in DC, at the UN, with the diaspora and investors can only take India so far."To contact the reporter on this story: Archana Chaudhary in New Delhi at achaudhary2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net, Daniel Ten KateFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Boris Johnson Gets to Gamble on Election to Fix Brexit Crisis Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:54 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. will hold an emergency election in six weeks' time, in a critical poll that will shape the country's destiny for decades to come.Prime Minister Boris Johnson won backing in Parliament to trigger the snap vote in an attempt to resolve the Brexit crisis that has paralyzed the country's politics, weighed on its economy and left its citizens angry and divided.The vote on Dec. 12 will be the third time the U.K. has gone to the polls to choose a new government in four and-a-half-years. At a time of unprecedented political and constitutional upheaval, the outcome will be hard to predict.The U.K. is still unable to complete its tortured divorce from the European Union, and Johnson has failed to get Parliament to ratify his withdrawal agreement. The election may now turn into a proxy referendum on Brexit, the last chance for voters to choose between politicians campaigning to stay in the EU or leave it immediately."There is only one way to get Brexit done in the face of this unrelenting parliamentary obstructionism," Johnson told the House of Commons on Tuesday. "That is, Mr Speaker, to refresh this Parliament and give the people a choice."Johnson Versus CorbynThe campaign will pit Johnson, the charismatic and controversial face of the pro-Brexit movement, against the radical left-wing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who defied pundits and pollsters and nearly won power two years ago."This is a once in a generation chance to build a country for the many, not the few," Corbyn said on Twitter to announce Labour's support for the early poll. "It's time."While Johnson is seeking to cash in on his fame and commitment to delivering on the 2016 vote to leave the EU, Corbyn offers a socialist alternative of raising taxes on the rich and nationalizing railways and utilities.The last time the country went to the polls, in 2017, Labour and the Conservatives won more than 80% of the vote between them as the smaller parties faded away. This time, with Brexit still unresolved, both main parties face challenges from marginal movements that have grown in popularity.No Brexit CampOn the pro-EU side, the Liberal Democrats have surged in opinion polls and lower profile elections recently, on their platform of clear opposition to Brexit. That is a threat to Corbyn, in particular. Many of his supporters want him to adopt a clearer anti-Brexit stance.For Johnson, the main peril comes from the veteran euro-skeptic Nigel Farage. He launched his Brexit Party in January to campaign for a clean, quick split from the EU. It then won popular vote in the European Parliament elections in May. With Johnson having failed to deliver his core mission to complete Brexit by Oct. 31, the door is open to Farage to take votes away from the Conservatives.On Monday, the EU agreed to postpone Brexit day until Jan. 31 to give Johnson more time to persuade members of Parliament to ratify the deal he struck on Oct. 17. That gave Corbyn the justification he needed to back a poll."For the next three months, our condition of taking no-deal off the table has now been met," Corbyn told his top team on Tuesday, according to a party statement. "We will now launch the most ambitious and radical campaign for real change our country has ever seen."On Tuesday, Johnson won a vote in the House of Commons for a law enabling a Dec. 12 election to take place. That law must be approved in the House of Lords before it comes into force, but it is now unlikely to be blocked.\--With assistance from Greg Ritchie and Alex Morales.To contact the reporters on this story: Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.net;Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Winter Is Coming for Britain's Remainers Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:44 PM PDT ![Winter Is Coming for Britain's Remainers]( "Winter Is Coming for Britain's Remainers") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- December in Britain can be bleak. Town centers may be festooned with Christmas lights, but it's cold and it gets dark before 4pm in most places, earlier in the north of the country. That explains the unwritten rule in British politics that you don't hold winter elections. Party activists, who are central to U.K. campaigns, don't relish knocking on doors. Voters are harder to mobilize. The last election that wasn't in late spring was 1974.Yet here we go. For the first time since 1923 the U.K. is set for a December general election, thanks to a decision by the opposition Labour Party to bow to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's relentless demands for a vote, which Parliament has now approved for Dec. 12.The capitulation of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, against the better instincts of many of his members of Parliament, puts Johnson exactly where he wants to be: glad-handing voters, waving a freshly agreed Brexit deal and telling tales of an obstreperous parliament. That's a potent combination.For the remain-leaning parties, however, this is their last stand. Divided between those who want a softer Brexit and those who want to cancel it altogether — and often paralyzed by a Labour Party that tries to have it both ways — they have repeatedly squandered opportunities to unite around an alternative vision. The 2019 general election would be a double-or-nothing bet that voters may be exhausted by Brexit, but they aren't sufficiently trustful of Johnson to give him control.The alternatives for Johnson's opponents were no better. Labour refused Johnson an election three times, but a decision by the remain-supporting Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party to back an early election left Corbyn looking isolated, and a bit silly. Having claimed constantly that he wanted a general election, he was facing the unhappy prospect of having to compete in one despite voting against it. He finally caved on Tuesday and said he would help Johnson's election bill pass.The Lib Dems and the SNP decided last weekend to back a December vote as long as Johnson did not bring his Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the legislation implementing his Brexit deal, back to Parliament. Both parties have a keen interest in going straight to a national vote now.Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, has positioned her organization as the "Stop Brexit" party and campaigned for a second referendum. She said there was no chance of getting an amendment on a confirmatory plebiscite attached to Johnson's bill since the numbers weren't there in Parliament, and she worried that his legislation might make it through unencumbered. Far better to go for an election and fight it out in what will be a proxy referendum on EU membership.The SNP wants to capitalize on the collapse of the Tory vote in Scotland after the resignation of the party's popular leader there Ruth Davidson. The SNP is also keen to avoid the fallout early next year from the trial of its former leader Alex Salmond on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault.Whatever their individual interests, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP will probably only beat Johnson — and Brexit — if they find a way to work together. Unless there's a major upset, Corbyn is too unpopular and his party's hard-left economic offering too radical to win a majority. The best he can hope for might be to lead some kind of coalition, perhaps with the SNP. Swinson has ruled out any deal with Labour; her party was burned badly in a previous coalition with the Tories. Apart from those who will miss the entertainment of the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow bellowing "Orrrder!" there are few who would rue the termination of a parliament that united to stop a no-deal Brexit but couldn't do much else.Yet even if Parliament has been abysmal, its dissolution would be a failure too. Johnson came back to the Commons with a Brexit deal and then did everything possible to avoid the scrutiny that it needed. Had he allowed reasonable time for debate, it would have had the examination it deserved.Johnson's capitulation on accepting an effective customs border in the Irish Sea, which infuriated his erstwhile allies in the Democratic Unionist Party, might have looked even uglier on closer inspection. The bill might not have survived without amendment. It might even have failed, leading to an election anyhow. But that would have been a process to which the public was entitled and which would have held lawmakers accountable.Brexiters have claimed repeatedly that this parliament is illegitimate because it's composed of a larger proportion of Remain-voting lawmakers than is the case for the general public. That accusation was always unfair and dangerous. Nearly all MPs were elected on manifesto pledges to uphold the 2016 vote (even if some never seemed particularly committed), and the poisoned rhetoric will probably haunt future parliaments and undermine trust in public institutions.But a winter election is coming and so far it doesn't look a fair fight. Johnson has, Nigel Farage permitting, largely united the Brexit vote and has a clear message for voters. The same cannot be said for his opponents.(Updates second and final paragraphs to reflect parliament's vote in favor of a Dec. 12 general election. )To contact the author of this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Winter Is Coming for Britain's Remainers Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:44 PM PDT ![Winter Is Coming for Britain's Remainers]( "Winter Is Coming for Britain's Remainers") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- December in Britain can be bleak. Town centers may be festooned with Christmas lights, but it's cold and it gets dark before 4pm in most places, earlier in the north of the country. That explains the unwritten rule in British politics that you don't hold winter elections. Party activists, who are central to U.K. campaigns, don't relish knocking on doors. Voters are harder to mobilize. The last election that wasn't in late spring was 1974.Yet here we go. For the first time since 1923 the U.K. is set for a December general election, thanks to a decision by the opposition Labour Party to bow to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's relentless demands for a vote, which Parliament has now approved for Dec. 12.The capitulation of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, against the better instincts of many of his members of Parliament, puts Johnson exactly where he wants to be: glad-handing voters, waving a freshly agreed Brexit deal and telling tales of an obstreperous parliament. That's a potent combination.For the remain-leaning parties, however, this is their last stand. Divided between those who want a softer Brexit and those who want to cancel it altogether — and often paralyzed by a Labour Party that tries to have it both ways — they have repeatedly squandered opportunities to unite around an alternative vision. The 2019 general election would be a double-or-nothing bet that voters may be exhausted by Brexit, but they aren't sufficiently trustful of Johnson to give him control.The alternatives for Johnson's opponents were no better. Labour refused Johnson an election three times, but a decision by the remain-supporting Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party to back an early election left Corbyn looking isolated, and a bit silly. Having claimed constantly that he wanted a general election, he was facing the unhappy prospect of having to compete in one despite voting against it. He finally caved on Tuesday and said he would help Johnson's election bill pass.The Lib Dems and the SNP decided last weekend to back a December vote as long as Johnson did not bring his Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the legislation implementing his Brexit deal, back to Parliament. Both parties have a keen interest in going straight to a national vote now.Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, has positioned her organization as the "Stop Brexit" party and campaigned for a second referendum. She said there was no chance of getting an amendment on a confirmatory plebiscite attached to Johnson's bill since the numbers weren't there in Parliament, and she worried that his legislation might make it through unencumbered. Far better to go for an election and fight it out in what will be a proxy referendum on EU membership.The SNP wants to capitalize on the collapse of the Tory vote in Scotland after the resignation of the party's popular leader there Ruth Davidson. The SNP is also keen to avoid the fallout early next year from the trial of its former leader Alex Salmond on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault.Whatever their individual interests, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP will probably only beat Johnson — and Brexit — if they find a way to work together. Unless there's a major upset, Corbyn is too unpopular and his party's hard-left economic offering too radical to win a majority. The best he can hope for might be to lead some kind of coalition, perhaps with the SNP. Swinson has ruled out any deal with Labour; her party was burned badly in a previous coalition with the Tories. Apart from those who will miss the entertainment of the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow bellowing "Orrrder!" there are few who would rue the termination of a parliament that united to stop a no-deal Brexit but couldn't do much else.Yet even if Parliament has been abysmal, its dissolution would be a failure too. Johnson came back to the Commons with a Brexit deal and then did everything possible to avoid the scrutiny that it needed. Had he allowed reasonable time for debate, it would have had the examination it deserved.Johnson's capitulation on accepting an effective customs border in the Irish Sea, which infuriated his erstwhile allies in the Democratic Unionist Party, might have looked even uglier on closer inspection. The bill might not have survived without amendment. It might even have failed, leading to an election anyhow. But that would have been a process to which the public was entitled and which would have held lawmakers accountable.Brexiters have claimed repeatedly that this parliament is illegitimate because it's composed of a larger proportion of Remain-voting lawmakers than is the case for the general public. That accusation was always unfair and dangerous. Nearly all MPs were elected on manifesto pledges to uphold the 2016 vote (even if some never seemed particularly committed), and the poisoned rhetoric will probably haunt future parliaments and undermine trust in public institutions.But a winter election is coming and so far it doesn't look a fair fight. Johnson has, Nigel Farage permitting, largely united the Brexit vote and has a clear message for voters. The same cannot be said for his opponents.(Updates second and final paragraphs to reflect parliament's vote in favor of a Dec. 12 general election. )To contact the author of this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UK PM Johnson says it’s time to get Brexit done Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:42 PM PDT ![UK PM Johnson says it's time to get Brexit done]( "UK PM Johnson says it's time to get Brexit done") British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday it was time to unite the country and get Brexit done after he won a vote to call an early general election. "It's time to unite the country and get Brexit done," Johnson said after addressing a meeting of lawmakers from his Conservative Party.
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| Johnson Wins Commons Support for Dec. 12 Election: Brexit Update Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:42 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to get the general election he wants on December 12 after winning crucial votes in the House of Commons.With Brexit on hold until the end of January, and Johnson unable to get his divorce deal through Parliament, the U.K.'s political leaders now believe a snap poll is the only way to resolve the crisis paralyzing the country. The election, which now needs to be approved by the House of Lords, is set to become a proxy referendum on European Union membership.Key Developments:Johnson won a vote in the House of Commons for a bill to set the date of the next election as Dec. 12 by 438 to 20. MPs voted 315 to 295 to reject a Labour bid for the election to be held on Dec. 9Election Bill now passes to the House of Lords on WednesdayTen Tories who were kicked out of the party for opposing Johnson's Brexit strategy have been re-admittedCorbyn Hails 'Once-In-A-Generation' Vote (8.35 p.m.)Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn wasted no time in kicking off his party's general election campaign. The vote will be "a once-in-a-generation chance to transform our country," he said in an emailed statement minutes after the House of Commons vote."We will now launch the most ambitious and radical campaign for real change that our country has ever seen," he said. "This is our chance to build a country for the many not the few and fit for the next generation."MPs Approve Dec. 12 General Election (8:25 p.m.)MPs agreed to hold a general election on Dec. 12, voting in favor of Boris Johnson's bill by a margin of 438 to 20.The prime minister earlier saw off an attempt by opposition parties to change the date to Dec. 9 (see 8 p.m.).The bill now heads to the House of Lords, where it can still be amended. The unelected upper chamber typically yields to the view of the lower one – meaning that an early general election is now a near certainty.MPs Reject Election Date of Dec. 9 (8 p.m.)MPs rejected a bid by the opposition Labour Party to change the proposed election date to Dec. 9 from Dec. 12. The amendment to change the date was defeated by 315 votes to 295.Opposition politicians had argued an earlier date would make it more likely that students would be able to vote, as many universities break up for the holiday in the week of Dec. 9.But the government won the day with its argument that the earlier date would make it hard to pass vital legislation relating to Northern Ireland before Parliament dissolves (See 6 p.m.)Johnson Flexible on Date, Official Says (6:40 p.m.)The wrangling over the date of the election is continuing, but Boris Johnson is not tied to his preferred date of Dec. 12 at all costs.MPs in the House of Commons are now discussing Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn's proposal to move the election date to Dec. 9.While it's difficult to wrap up Parliamentary business in time for a Dec. 9 election, the premier would probably not abandon his plan if that date were forced on him by Parliament, a Tory official said.This all points to an election being agreed to by Tuesday night.Ten Expelled Tories Back in the Fold (6:30 p.m.)Johnson met in private with 10 of the 21 MPs Conservative MPs who were thrown of the party for opposing his Brexit strategy and they have been re-admitted, a party spokesman said.They include two former Cabinet ministers: Greg Clark and Caroline Nokes. Some of the other notable names are Alistair Burt, Nicholas Soames -- the grandson of Winston Churchill, Stephen Hammond and Margot James. The door has been left open for others to be brought back as well, the spokesman said.The development is good news for Johnson as it points to some of the former rebels planning to vote with the government and may help to heal rifts in the party.What does the EU make of all this? (6:15 p.m.)Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, said a prospective snap election in the U.K. won't have a material effect on the concrete negotiations involving Brexit."The problems to be solved remain the same -- and the solutions would also be the same," Barnier told Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung in an interview."We spent two years negotiating a 600-page treaty with Theresa May. With Boris Johnson we negotiated for a comparatively short amount of time," he said. May was "courageous and tenacious," and Johnson is "also tenacious and a strong character," he said.Govt. Rejects Changing Election Day (6 p.m.)Cabinet Office Minister Oliver Dowden said if MPs opt for a Dec. 9 election, as proposed in an amendment, there's a "real danger" nurses, teachers and police officers in Northern Ireland won't get paid after the end of the month as there won't be time to approve a budget for the province.A Dec. 12 election "gives Parliament enough time to progress essential business, and specifically the Northern Ireland budget Bill," Dowden said.Asked twice whether it would be possible for the House of Commons to sit on Friday in order to ensure the Northern Ireland legislation goes through, he replied that the bill needed to be "properly" considered.Early Election Bill Proceeds to Next Stage (5:45 p.m.)The House of Commons just gave approval in principle to the government's bill calling for an early general election. There was no need for a vote, and the bill passed its so-called second reading on the nod. It now goes to the committee stage, when it can be amended.Parliament Won't Vote on Expanding Electorate (5:20 p.m.)Deputy House of Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle rejected proposals to lower the voting age to 16 and to give EU nationals living in the U.K. a vote in the upcoming general election. The government said it would pull its election bill rather than accept either measure.The only amendment Hoyle selected was Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's proposal to change the date of the election from Dec. 12 to Dec. 9. The Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party have indicated they would support such a move. The government said it wouldn't rule out a vote on Dec. 9, but said it would be a rush.Farewell and Good Luck from Tusk (4:30 p.m.)EU Council President Donald Tusk warned that the Brexit extension to Jan. 31 'may be the last one,' after announcing the bloc has formally adopted its decision to allow a delay."Please make the best use of this time," Tusk said in a tweet. "I will keep my fingers crossed for you."Ex-Tories Add Backing to Votes at 16 (3:40 p.m.)At least four former Conservative MPs have signed a proposed amendment that would expand the electoral roll to include 16 and 17 year olds.Anna Soubry, who quit the party in February, and Guto Bebb, Justine Greening and Dominic Grieve, who were expelled in September for rebelling against Johnson's Brexit plans, have all put their name to an amendment by Labour backbencher Stephen Doughty calling for the change.But the issue may not come to a vote. The list of amendments chosen for debate will be announced sometime after 5:45 p.m.Johnson to Pull Bill If Franchise Amendments Pass (3:20 p.m.)Boris Johnson would abandon his attempt to hold a general election next month if amendments are passed to allow EU nationals and 16-year-olds to vote, his spokesman told reporters in Westminster.Expanding the franchise would be a bad idea and would force a six-month delay until there can be a national vote, the spokesman said.But he said the prime minister may press on if MPs vote to hold the election on Dec. 9 instead of Dec. 12. A vote on Dec. 9 would be a rush but the government isn't ruling it out, he said.It's unclear which amendments the speaker will select, so these issues may not come to a vote.Lib Dems and SNP Back Votes at 16 (3:10 p.m.)The Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party will join Labour in backing any amendment to allow 16-year-olds and EU nationals with settled status in the U.K. to vote in the general election, according to a Lib Dem official.The Liberal Democrat stance is a change from Monday, when party officials briefed they were likely to abstain on any such amendment. That's because, while they want 16-year olds to have the vote, they think there isn't time to change the electoral register in time for a December election.Ian Blackford, the SNP's Westminster leader, reminded lawmakers that EU citizens are already on the electoral roll for local elections so it would be easy to give them votes in a general election.Corbyn Backs Expansion of Electorate (2:50 p.m.)Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he will back amendments to allow 16-year-olds and EU nationals with settled status in the U.K. to vote in the general election.If the measures pass, it could torpedo the legislation, and therefore the early national poll.Boris Johnson's spokesman, James Slack, earlier told reporters that the Electoral Commission recommends changes to the electoral register shouldn't be made less than 6 months before a vote, and that the government has no plans to expand the franchise.Johnson Makes Case For Early Vote (2:35 p.m.)Boris Johnson made his case for an early election in the House of Commons, saying the current crop of members wouldn't vote through his Withdrawal Agreement Bill and accusing opposition MPs of not wanting to deliver Brexit."There is only one way to get Brexit done in the face of this unrelenting parliamentary obstructionism," he told the chamber. "That is, Mr speaker, to refresh this Parliament and to give people a choice."MPs Vote to Allow Amendments to Election Bill (2:20 p.m.)MPs backed the amendment by Labour backbencher Stella Creasy (see 2:10 p.m.) enabling them to add changes to Boris Johnson's bill to force through a general election.The government had sought to by bypass normal Parliamentary rules and limit the opportunity for rank-and-file lawmakers to change the proposed law.It now opens up the bill to possible amendments, including from those who want to change the date of the election, or to add 16 and 17-year-olds and EU nationals to the electorate.MPs Voting to Allow Election Bill Amendments (2:10 p.m.)MPs are voting on an amendment to the government's schedule for proceeding with the general election bill in the House of Commons.In essence, the amendment, proposed by Labour backbencher Stella Creasy, would allow MPs to amend the legislation calling for an early general election. The government is trying to bypass normal Parliamentary rules to speed its passage through parliament.Creasy said her amendment aims merely to put the concept of "fair play" back in the Commons. "What the government was trying to do, in simple terms, was rig today's debate," she told lawmakers. "Letting this program motion go through without the full list of rules, is like letting Lance Armstrong keep all his medals."Election Bill Presented to Parliament (1:45 p.m.)The bill calling for an early general election has been presented in Parliament – what's called its first reading. That's just a formality. MPs have 6 hours to get it through all of its stages in the House of Commons.That includes a vote on second reading – expected by about 6 p.m. and then debate on possible amendments at what's called the committee stage of the bill. If it stays to schedule, the final vote should be no later than 7:45 p.m.OBR Forecasts Still Due on Nov. 7 (12:45 p.m.)The government's fiscal watchdog said it will still publish its economic forecasts on Nov. 7, even though Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid's Budget the day before has been canceled.The forecasts, which were due to be presented in response to the Budget, will include updated assessments of the impact of the Brexit deal Boris Johnson agreed with the EU on Oct. 17. Javid has ruled out publishing any government impact assessments of the deal.In a letter to the Treasury, Robert Chote, Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said it is required by law to publish at least two forecasts per year and will go ahead with its plans.Chote said in his letter that the new deal is unlikely to have made a "significant quantitative difference" compared to the last forecast in March, which was based on Theresa May's deal and assumed a transition period to Dec. 2020.Johnson Will Consider Other Election Dates (12:30 p.m.)Boris Johnson is open to considering other dates for a general election, but doesn't consider a poll on Dec. 9 as logistically possible, his spokesman James Slack told reporters in Westminster.That means Dec. 10 or 11 could emerge as the date for a pre-Christmas election, rather than the Dec. 12 vote proposed by the prime minister.Slack also said that Johnson wouldn't countenance the lowering of the voting age to 16, or the inclusion of EU nationals in the vote, both of which have been proposed by opposition parties. Even if he supported the changes, there would be practical issues with either happening in time for an election next month, Slack said.Mixed Reaction to Election From Labour MPs (11:50 a.m.)Not all Labour MPs seem happy about Jeremy Corbyn's decision to back a general election.Darren Jones, who represents a constituency in Bristol, tweeted a painting of the Charge of the Light Brigade – one of Britain's best-known military disasters. Another, Ben Bradshaw said an election shouldn't be a tool to resolve Brexit. "A general election is about everything about governing the country," he told the BBC.But others threw their support behind the plan. Laura Pidcock tweeted "BRING IT ON," while Clive Lewis tweeted an abbreviated version of the same message: "bring it."'It's Time,' Corbyn Says (11:30 a.m.)Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn tweeted that his party will back a general election, confirming earlier statements from his office (see 10:50 a.m.). "It's time," he said.Pound Erases Loss With Election Likely (11:10 a.m.)The pound reversed an earlier decline as traders judged a vote in Parliament on an early election vote was likely to pass with the Labour Party's backing (see 10:50 a.m.). The currency gained as much as 0.1% to $1.2873 before paring gains.Market participants judge a snap poll could bring back a Conservative majority and end the Brexit deadlock, according to Nomura International Plc analyst Jordan Rochester.Corbyn Backs December Election (10:50 a.m.)Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn indicated his party will back a general election in December, meaning Johnson will be able to go to the polls by the end of the year.Corbyn told his team: "For the next three months, our condition of taking no deal off the table has now been met," according to a statement. "We will now launch the most ambitious and radical campaign for real change our country has ever seen."The parties are haggling over the date of the election, with a day between Dec. 9 and Dec. 12 currently on the table. Amendments to Johnson's bill are being written now.Trust Is Key as SNP Deliberates Over Election (10:45 a.m.)Scottish National Party MPs are scrutinizing the contents of the government's election bill ahead of a debate later today, according to a spokesman.The party wants an election, but its lawmakers don't trust Boris Johnson to keep to his word, he said.Government Offers Dec. 11 to Win Lib Dem Support (10 a.m.)The negotiations have begun in Westminster ahead of the vote on Boris Johnson's plan for a Dec. 12 general election. With the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party seeking a Dec. 9 poll, a U.K. official said the government has offered Dec. 11 as a compromise.A spokesman for the Liberal Democrats said the party is looking at the offer.The government needs some opposition votes to reach a simple majority for its election bill to pass, but it also wants to avoid amendments being attached to the legislation.Students' Vacation Key to Election Date Battle (9 a.m.)The biggest sticking point in Boris Johnson's bid for a Dec. 12 general election is the date itself. Two smaller opposition parties, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, whose support could be key to the government's chances, want an earlier poll on Dec. 9 to ensure students are still at their universities to cast their ballots.Liberal Democrat MP Chuka Umunna told BBC radio on Tuesday his party would not accept Dec. 12. But Conservative minister Brandon Lewis said Dec. 12 is the "right date" and accused the opposition parties of seeking to stop Brexit altogether. The government has said it needs time before Parliament breaks up for an election to secure key Northern Ireland legislation.Johnson lacks a majority in Parliament, so will need at least some opposition votes to secure an early election. But the Liberal Democrats and SNP, both staunchly pro-EU and anti-Brexit, regard students as a key constituency.Meanwhile, even though the main opposition Labour Party abstained in Monday's vote on a snap poll, their position appeared to be softening on Tuesday. Labour's trade spokesman, Barry Gardiner, hinted his party could back a Dec. 9 election, telling BBC radio: "The first thing is to make sure that students are not disenfranchised by the date of the election."Hammond: Election Will Usher in Tory Hardliners (8:30 a.m.)Former Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, who is still suspended from the party after defying Boris Johnson over Brexit, warned an election would usher in "hardliner" pro-Leave MPs to the Tory benches."I fear that the real narrative here is that the Vote Leave activists, the cohort that has seized control in Downing Street -- and to some extent in the headquarters of the Conservative Party -- wants this general election to change the shape of the Conservative Party in Parliament," Hammond told BBC radio.Hammond also disputed the government's narrative that he and other expelled Tories, and MPs in general, are the ones blocking Brexit. The House of Commons voted in favor of the initial passage of Johnson's Brexit bill before the government pulled the legislation over its failure to win backing for an accelerated timetable, Hammond said.Rees-Mogg: No Plan to Bring Brexit Bill Back (Earlier)In his business statement to Parliament late Tuesday, Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg said the government wants to get the early election bill through all stages of the House of Commons on Tuesday.He also said the government had no plan to bring back the Withdrawal Agreement Bill -- the legislation that puts the Brexit deal into U.K. law -- before Parliament breaks up for the election. That's a key demand of the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party, who opened up the legislative route to an early election when they expressed willingness to vote for a snap poll, subject to Brexit not being concluded beforehand.According to Tuesday's House of Commons order paper, debate on the election bill is due to begin at 12:30 p.m. -- subject to ministerial statements and urgent questions -- and can continue "until any hour."Earlier:Boris Johnson Won't Give Up on Trying to Force a U.K. ElectionBrexit Bulletin: Fourth Time Lucky?Two Foreign Exchange Traders, Three Votes and a Brexit Meltdown\--With assistance from Caroline Alexander, Charlotte Ryan, Kitty Donaldson, Tim Ross, Nikos Chrysoloras, Patrick Donahue and Jessica Shankleman.To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net;Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Greg Ritchie in London at gritchie10@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Pound Needs More Than Election Date to Sustain October’s Rally Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:40 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.Pound traders are unlikely to find that the promise of a December U.K. election provides an escape from the Brexit maze.The currency was little changed after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won backing in Parliament for a Dec. 12 general election. An election is unlikely to send the pound plunging with the Conservatives ahead in the polls, strategists say. Yet there is enough uncertainty around the result and the Brexit outcome that it also won't prompt a huge rally."The most severe of the longer-term structural risks facing the U.K. -- a no-deal crash out -- have all but evaporated," said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. "There is a lot of good news in the price, and the balance of headlines may not be as constructive once we head into an election cycle."The pound is headed for its best month against the dollar since January 2018, with the risk of a no-deal Brexit reduced after lawmakers voted to force Johnson to seek an extension to the deadline. The election now looks set to become a proxy vote on European Union membership.The pound was steady at $1.2863 on Tuesday after Parliament voted, and climbed 0.1% to 86.37 pence per euro. The yield on U.K. 10-year government bonds dipped to 0.71%.Wary InvestorsEven as polls suggest a Tory-led government is the most likely outcome, the market will be mindful of risks around Jeremy Corbyn. Investors have long been wary of a government led by the left-wing Labour leader, who is seen nationalizing parts of the economy, boosting borrowing and redistributing income.There is also the question of how the two main parties position themselves on Brexit. If Labour opts to campaign on a platform of no Brexit or an arrangement where Britain maintains close ties with the EU, while the Conservatives go for a departure at any cost, volatility will likely pick up into the vote, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG."I wouldn't expect a large market reaction in pound spot rates," said Nguyen. "Rather, I think we will see a repricing on options markets, factoring in an increased political risk around the date of the elections."Option pricing has been subdued in recent days, with implied volatility in the pound staying low in the shorter and longer term. This suggests traders foresee smaller jumps in the currency, reflecting optimism about the fading risk of no-deal, contained by pessimism caused by simmering political uncertainty.Persistent question marks over Brexit itself could also keep a lid on the pound. Traders may also shift their attention to the risk of the second phase of Brexit negotiations when Britain will have to decide its future relationship with the EU."The capacity for sterling to enjoy a major relief rally that 'it's over' may be more constrained than others may think because, let's face it, it's not over," said Toronto-Dominion's Rumpeltin. "Not by a long shot."(Updates with Tuesday's Parliament vote.)\--With assistance from Katherine Greifeld.To contact the reporters on this story: Charlotte Ryan in London at cryan147@bloomberg.net;Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.net, William Shaw, Michael HunterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| U.K. General Election: An Essential Guide on What You Must Know Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:32 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.The last thing most people want for Christmas is an election, but that is exactly what U.K. voters are going to get on Dec. 12. This will be the third time the country has gone to the polls in four and-a-half-years. Here's what you need to know.How did we get here?Boris Johnson wants an early vote to restore his Conservative Party's majority in the Parliament's lower house, the Commons, even though the next election isn't scheduled until 2022. Johnson calculates an election could end the political stalemate over Brexit. The last time Britain went to the polls in December was 1923.Who's battling?Expect to hear most from the two biggest parties -- the Conservatives, also known as the Tories, and Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party -- during the five-week battle. The other parties are the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage's Brexit Party alongside the pro-environment Green party and independent candidates. There are also smaller parties linked to particular countries within the U.K. that win seats in the constituencies in their regions: the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru in Wales and four parties in Northern Ireland.How are elections won in the U.K.?A candidate, usually representing a political party, simply needs the most votes to win a seat in Parliament, under Britain's first-past-the post election system.Technically, the party with the most seats wins the election and forms the government, with the magic number at 326 MPs -- half of all of them plus one more. The bigger a party's winning margin, the more opportunity it has for effecting its agenda. Johnson will be hoping for a sizable majority to force his Brexit deal through, alongside his other domestic priorities on the National Health Service, education and caring for an ageing population. While Britain's political system mostly used to deliver up majorities for the Conservatives and Labour, that's not the case any more.What happens if no party wins outright?A hung Parliament. When this happens, negotiations kick off between the parties. Johnson, as head of government in power before the election, would get the first crack at creating a formal coalition. He could also try to enter into so-called confidence and supply arrangement with a smaller party, with support supplied for budgets and other key votes. This is the kind of agreement the Tories have had for the past 18 months with the Democratic Unionist Party, but that arrangement has now expired, meaning negotiations would have to start again.A third option under a hung Parliament is for the party that won the most MPs without gaining an overall majority to try to rule on their own as a minority government. This would require ad hoc agreements with smaller parties, and risks repeated defeats and another general election.How could tactical voting affect the outcome?This has been happening in areas where the opposition vote is usually split, and it could alter results on a national scale because party leaders could be denied the majority they seek if one of the smaller parties agrees not to field a candidate to allow a two-way battle.Where does the Queen fit in?As monarch, Queen Elizabeth II is head of state, and the government is formed in her name. But with no president, the prime minister holds the highest executive office. Palace officials have worked very hard to keep the Queen out of politics.Nevertheless, Johnson must apply formally to the queen for an election to be held, and the winner must visit the monarch before Parliament starts afresh. No government decisions can be made during an election campaign as the civil service enters a period of so-called purdah.Why is a December vote unusual?In short -- British weather. Conventional wisdom holds that election campaigns should be conducted in the spring or fall to allow canvassers the maximum daylight to speak to potential voters after working hours and for better weather to encourage a higher turnout. With rain, floods, fog and even snow forecast for November and December by the country's weather forecasters, the Met Office, voter turnout could be far lower than usual.However, there could be a rise in ballot papers sent by mail in advance. With leaflets mailed to voters and millions of Christmas cards processing through the country's postal services, expect questions about the reliability of postal voting.UnpredictabilityPoliticians campaigning will be at the mercy of unexpected events. While revelers may be celebrating the season, the health service faces a crunch at this time of year, with influenza and other climate-related conditions filling hospital beds around the country. The country's rail and roads are also at risk of closing in heavy weather, which could anger voters. An election in university term-time could also affect the outcome. Party leaders will also be under pressure to take part in televised debates.How are the votes counted?Britons vote for a district representative in the House of Commons. With 650 constituencies represented in Parliament there are individual counts that all happen on one day, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Voting is carried out between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. and via mail in advance. BBC, the national broadcaster, usually commissions an exit poll to run just after 10 p.m. on election day.Counting begins immediately in each district, with results coming in throughout the night. By early morning it becomes clearer which party is likely to have won.To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Caroline Alexander, Stuart BiggsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| U.S., Britain, others to push China at U.N. to stop detention of Uighurs Posted: 29 Oct 2019 01:23 PM PDT ![U.S., Britain, others to push China at U.N. to stop detention of Uighurs]( "U.S., Britain, others to push China at U.N. to stop detention of Uighurs") The United States, Britain, Germany and more than a dozen other countries will push China on Tuesday at the United Nations to stop the detention of ethnic Uighurs and other Muslims, said diplomats, a move likely to anger Beijing as it negotiates a trade deal with Washington. In a joint statement seen by Reuters and due to be made to the 193-member U.N. General Assembly's human rights committee, the signers will also call on all countries not to send refugees or asylum seekers back to a place where they face persecution. China has been widely condemned for setting up complexes in remote Xinjiang that it describes as "vocational training centers" to stamp out extremism and give people new skills.
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| Masked gunmen attack protesters in Iraq holy city; 18 killed Posted: 29 Oct 2019 12:56 PM PDT  Masked gunmen opened fire at Iraqi protesters in the Shiite holy city of Karbala on Tuesday, killing 18 people and wounding hundreds, security officials said, in one of the deadliest single attacks since anti-government demonstrations erupted earlier this month. The overnight attack came as Iraqis took to the streets for a fifth straight day after a hiatus in the demonstrations that began earlier this month to protest government corruption, a lack of jobs and municipal services, and other grievances. The earlier protests also saw violence against protesters, and a total of 240 people have been killed since the unrest began.
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| Government troops and separatists begin joint withdrawal in eastern Ukraine town Posted: 29 Oct 2019 12:46 PM PDT  The Ukrainian government and Russia-backed separatists have begun withdrawing forces from an eastern Ukraine town in a step toward new peace talks with Moscow over the five-year conflict. At an investment forum on Tuesday in Mariupol, a city near separatist-held areas, foreign minister Vadym Prystaiko said Ukraine was pulling back troops from the contact line in Zolote and would next work toward a similar withdrawal from the town of Petrovske. Ukrainian forces fired a small white rocket in the air to show their readiness, and troops from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic answered with their own signal flare, a separatist spokesman said. They fired a green flare as they started pulling back, all under the gaze of observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The operation must be completed within three days. Originally slated for October 7, the joint withdrawal was delayed as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire that has frequently been broken since 2015. The Ukrainian military accused the separatists of firing machine guns and grenades at a position near Zolote on Tuesday, but later said the clash occurred outside the withdrawal area. The Zolote and Petrovske stand-downs were first planned at a meeting in Minsk of representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the separatists as part of an effort by recently elected president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to revitalise the stalled peace process. Volunteer soldiers affiliated with a far-right group argued against the withdrawal in a heated meeting with Mr Zelenskiy when he visited Zolote last week. Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets soldiers at a position in the Donetsk region earlier this month Credit: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service via Reuters Nationalists have also been protesting the "Steinmeier formula" agreed in Minsk, which foresees free elections in the separatist areas in exchange for a special status on autonomy. Mr Zelenskiy has been pushing to reconvene the Normandy format involving the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine for peace talks. Mr Prystaiko said not all participants had agreed on a preliminary date set for the talks but Kyiv hopes they would take place in November. The Kremlin signalled on Tuesday it was ready to come to the negotiating table if both withdrawals were successfully completed. "If everything works out in Zolote, similar procedures must immediately be taken in Petrovske," said Vladislav Surkov, an aide to Vladimir Putin. "After that, without slowing down, preparations for the Normandy summit must be started." Mr Zelenskiy showed a willingness to negotiate by calling Vladimir Putin in July and pushed through prisoner swap with Russia involving 70 people in September. He also oversaw a troop withdrawal and reconstruction of a bridge between government and separatist areas in Stanytsia Luhanska. Despite backing the "Steinmeier formula," the sides have differed on the details, with the separatists pushing back against Kyiv's insistance that the border with Russia first be brought back under its control. More than 10,000 people have been killed since separatists seized cities in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
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| Ukraine foes start troop withdrawal in east Posted: 29 Oct 2019 12:42 PM PDT  The Ukrainian army and Moscow-backed separatists said Tuesday they had begun to withdraw their troops from a key area in the war-torn east ahead of a high-stakes summit with Russia. The long-awaited pullback is a precondition for the first face-to-face talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, to be mediated by the leaders of France and Germany. "The process of troop withdrawal began by both sides... in the area of Zolote-4" in the Lugansk region, Ukraine's army said on Facebook.
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| AP Explains: What's next after Lebanon PM resigns Posted: 29 Oct 2019 11:58 AM PDT  The resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday meets a key demand of Lebanon's anti-government protesters but will also plunge the country into even greater uncertainty, with no clear path to resolving its growing economic and political crisis. The political settlement that ended Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war distributes power and top offices among the country's Shiites, Sunnis and Christians. The Western-backed Hariri had served in a national unity government dominated by rival factions allied with the militant Hezbollah group, whose supporters attacked the main protest camp on Tuesday.
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| Russia says Kurds complete withdrawal from Turkish border Posted: 29 Oct 2019 11:36 AM PDT  Russia's defense ministry said Tuesday that tens of thousands of Syrian Kurdish fighters have completed their withdrawal from areas along the Syrian border, in line with a recent Russia-Turkey deal. Separately, a Russian military statement said an explosive device went off close to Russian armored vehicles near the Darbasiyah border checkpoint, but there were no injuries or damage. Last week's Russia-Turkey deal divides control of northeast Syria and has halted a Turkish invasion of the area.
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| U.S. shipping sanctions to dent demand for dirty shipping fuel: Refinitiv Posted: 29 Oct 2019 11:14 AM PDT  U.S. sanctions on a top Chinese shipping fleet is set to produce a totally unintended result -- less burning of the dirtiest marine fuels at sea at the start of next year, Refinitiv data showed on Tuesday. From January 2020, the United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) will ban ships from using fuel with a sulphur content above 0.5%, compared with 3.5% now. This high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) will not be banned outright but allowed if vessels attach at port a cleaning device called a scrubber -- something fewer shipowners and brokers did given the highest profits for freight seen in years.
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| The Latest: German FM fears 'political vacuum' in Lebanon Posted: 29 Oct 2019 11:05 AM PDT  Maas remarks came after Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation following nearly two weeks of mass demonstrations in the country. The German foreign minister said that the further political development in Lebanon "is of very critical importance for us, but also for the entire region" and that he hopes the protests will be peaceful.
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| Egypt FM says US to host talks on Nile dispute next month Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:58 AM PDT ![Egypt FM says US to host talks on Nile dispute next month]( "Egypt FM says US to host talks on Nile dispute next month") Egypt's foreign minister says the U.S. will host talks over a growing water dispute over Ethiopia's soon-to-be-finished Blue Nile dam, which Egypt claims threatens its water supply. Sameh Shoukry told reporters Tuesday that the Trump administration has invited representatives from Cairo, Addis Ababa and Sudan for talks on Nov. 6. The development comes three weeks after talks between the Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan failed to resolve their differences over Ethiopia's dam project.
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| Shipping companies, retailers look to develop cleaner marine biofuel Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:49 AM PDT  Top shipping, retail and transport companies are looking to develop an alternative marine fuel which aims to reduce carbon emissions from ships, in another step to push the sector to go green. The IMO, a United Nations agency, has said it aims to halve greenhouse gas emissions from 2008 levels by 2050. Investor and activist pressure is prompting companies to look to speed up reducing the industry's carbon footprint.
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| Shipping companies, retailers look to develop cleaner marine biofuel Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:32 AM PDT ![Shipping companies, retailers look to develop cleaner marine biofuel]( "Shipping companies, retailers look to develop cleaner marine biofuel") Top shipping, retail and transport companies are looking to develop an alternative marine fuel which aims to reduce carbon emissions from ships, in another step to push the sector to go green. The IMO, a United Nations agency, has said it aims to halve greenhouse gas emissions from 2008 levels by 2050. Investor and activist pressure is prompting companies to look to speed up reducing the industry's carbon footprint.
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| Russia's richest man unveils new Moscow arts centre Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:15 AM PDT  Gas tycoon Leonid Mikhelson is normally seen inking deals and meeting President Vladimir Putin, but on Tuesday Russia's richest man rubbed elbows with the cultural crowd as he showcased a new Moscow arts centre. The GES-2 venue in central Moscow, financed by Mikhelson's VAC foundation, is located in a century-old power-plant that is being redesigned with great pomp by Italian 'starchitect' Renzo Piano. The enormous space is set to house galleries, cafes and art residencies, and is to open its doors in September 2020, Mikhelson told a press-conference.
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| Russian defense minister hails military ties with Armenia Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:12 AM PDT ![Russian defense minister hails military ties with Armenia]( "Russian defense minister hails military ties with Armenia") Russia's defense minister visited Armenia on Tuesday for talks about military cooperation between the ex-Soviet allies. The Russian base in Armenia has about 4,000 troops and air defense assets. The base's commanding officer reported to Shoigu that its capability has markedly increased with the deployment of new modern weapons systems.
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| UN chief: Drafting new Syria constitution is step to peace Posted: 29 Oct 2019 10:07 AM PDT ![UN chief: Drafting new Syria constitution is step to peace]( "UN chief: Drafting new Syria constitution is step to peace") United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says this week's inaugural meeting of a committee tasked with drafting a new Syrian constitution presents a "unique opportunity" for peace. Representatives from the Syrian government, opposition and civil society are to begin meeting in Geneva on Wednesday. Repeated U.N. efforts to host talks on ending Syria's eight-year civil war have largely failed.
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| German Spy Chief Says Huawei Can’t Be ‘Fully Trusted’ in 5G Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:33 AM PDT ![German Spy Chief Says Huawei Can't Be 'Fully Trusted' in 5G]( "German Spy Chief Says Huawei Can't Be 'Fully Trusted' in 5G") (Bloomberg) -- Germany's spy chief said Huawei Technologies Co. "can't fully be trusted," signaling security hardliners in Chancellor Angela Merkel's government want to keep the Chinese technology giant out of the country's fifth-generation networks.Bruno Kahl, the president of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, or BND, gave public testimony in Berlin Tuesday in which he was asked about the risk level of Huawei's presence in the expanded 5G network and its ties to the government in Beijing."The trust in a state company that has a very high level of dependence on the Communist Party and the country's intelligence apparatus is not present," Kahl told a panel of lawmakers overseeing German intelligence agencies.Merkel's government earlier this year ruled out an outright ban on the Chinese equipment supplier as Germany builds ultrafast 5G networks, defying warnings by the U.S. government and security hawks that Huawei equipment poses a risk of exposure to Chinese espionage.That position was reinforced this month by reports the Chancellery had intervened to soften draft securities standards by removing the ability of authorities to identify "untrustworthy" vendors. The Chancellery has denied any intervention, saying there had never been a clause to ban Huawei.At the same time, the government is under pressure to ensure German companies can tap the benefits of the next generation of communications technology quickly and at a reasonable price."It will become quickly profitable for German companies to have access to 5G," Merkel said at a technology conference in Dortmund Tuesday. She promised that the Federal Network Agency will announce shortly how companies will have access to reserved 5G frequencies.All the same, Kahl signaled the government is still processing its security measures, saying "I have not been able to see that a definitive decision has been taken one way or the other." The panel he was addressing was holding its annual public session; it usually meets behind closed doors.Huawei pushed back, saying that accusations over trustworthiness were unfounded for a company serving three billion people globally."We have never introduced, and would never entertain the thought of introducing, so-called 'backdoors' in our equipment," Huawei said in an emailed response to a query. "No government agency or outside organization holds any shares in Huawei or controls Huawei in any way."Even after Merkel ruled out a full ban, with an eye toward maintaining trade relations with China, officials in the BND as well as the foreign and interior ministries still wanted tools to potentially keep Huawei out if they sensed a security risk for Germany. The ability of authorities to determine whether equipment contained backdoor features that could be exploited by China is "very limited if not to say hopeless," Kahl said.Even if it were possible, he added, a software update could "immediately" alter the network and open it to "sabotage or espionage."Kahl underscored that a block on Huawei would have to be for core areas of 5G networks. "There may be areas where a participation doesn't have to be excluded," he said.(Updates with Merkel comment in seventh paragraph.)\--With assistance from Stefan Nicola.To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Caroline Alexander, Karl MaierFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| EU's Tusk says Brexit delay to Jan.31 "may be the last one" Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:31 AM PDT ![EU's Tusk says Brexit delay to Jan.31 "may be the last one"]( "EU's Tusk says Brexit delay to Jan.31 \"may be the last one\"") The outgoing European Union chairman, Donald Tusk, said on Tuesday the bloc formally approved delaying Brexit to the end of January, 2020. Tusk, who will leave after five years at the end of November his job as the European Council president - or chairman of EU national leaders' talks - has also never shied away from making clear he would want Britain to stay in the bloc.
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| Israeli military intercepts drone over Gaza Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:20 AM PDT ![Israeli military intercepts drone over Gaza]( "Israeli military intercepts drone over Gaza") The Israeli military says it has shot down an unmanned aircraft flying at "an unusual altitude" over the Gaza Strip. The army said Tuesday that Israeli fighter jets were scrambled to intercept the drone. Gaza's ruling Islamic militant group Hamas has a drone program believed to receive assistance from Iran.
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| Former top UN refugee official Sadako Ogata dies at 92 Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:14 AM PDT  Sadako Ogata, who led the U.N. refugee agency for a decade and became one of the first Japanese to hold a top job at an international organization, has died. The government-funded Japan International Cooperation Agency, where she last served, said Tuesday that Ogata died on Oct. 22, but the cause was not disclosed. Ogata, born on Sept. 16, 1927, was the great-granddaughter of former Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai, who was assassinated by navy officers in 1932 as he tried to stop Japan's military aggression in China, and the granddaughter of former foreign minister Kenkichi Yoshizawa.
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| Baghdadi's Death Creates an Opportunity for Peace in the Middle East Posted: 29 Oct 2019 09:06 AM PDT  All signs indicate that various countries in the Arab world are hungry for a diplomatic solution to their rivalry with Iran.
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| Israeli PM hopeful Gantz vows mixed Western Wall prayer area Posted: 29 Oct 2019 08:10 AM PDT ![Israeli PM hopeful Gantz vows mixed Western Wall prayer area]( "Israeli PM hopeful Gantz vows mixed Western Wall prayer area") The man who is trying to become Israel's next prime minister says he would implement a long-stalled plan for an egalitarian section at a key Jewish prayer site in Jerusalem if he takes power. Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz told a gathering of overseas Jewish leaders Tuesday that "the Western Wall is long enough for all" and should accommodate all streams of Judaism. The Western Wall, the holiest site where Jews can pray, currently has separate sections for men and women, in adherence with Orthodox custom.
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| U.K. Set for December Election in Bid to Break Brexit Deadlock Posted: 29 Oct 2019 08:06 AM PDT ![U.K. Set for December Election in Bid to Break Brexit Deadlock]( "U.K. Set for December Election in Bid to Break Brexit Deadlock") (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.The U.K. is set for its third general election since 2015 as political leaders attempt to resolve the Brexit crisis paralyzing the country.Prime Minister Boris Johnson won the backing of opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn for a snap poll to take place between Dec. 9 and 12.While the date is yet to be confirmed, the vote is set to become a proxy referendum on European Union membership. It is likely to be the last chance voters have to choose between parties offering to cancel Brexit or force through a hard split at any cost.The pound pared losses as traders judged an early election would go ahead, and on speculation it could produce a Conservative Party majority to end the Brexit deadlock."There is only one way to get Brexit done in the face of this unrelenting parliamentary obstructionism," Johnson told the House of Commons. "That is, Mr Speaker, to refresh this Parliament and give the people a choice."Corbyn said he supported an election. "This is a once in a generation chance to build a country for the many, not the few," Corbyn said on Twitter to announce Labour's support for the early poll. "It's time."Meanwhile, the haggling over the exact date continues. Johnson doesn't consider a poll on Dec. 9 as logistically possible, according to his spokesman. That means Dec. 10 or 11 could emerge as a viable compromise.Members of Parliament will vote Tuesday on whether to endorse the plan. It will be the fourth time the prime minister has tried to persuade the House of Commons to back his call for a snap election.He was rebuffed previously because the main opposition Labour Party refused to agree to dissolve Parliament for a national campaign while there was still a chance the U.K. could crash out of the EU without a divorce agreement.On Monday, the EU agreed to postpone Brexit day until Jan. 31 to give Johnson more time to persuade members of Parliament to ratify the deal he struck on Oct. 17."For the next three months, our condition of taking no-deal off the table has now been met," Corbyn told his top team on Tuesday, according to a party statement. "We will now launch the most ambitious and radical campaign for real change our country has ever seen."Johnson is proposing a one-line bill, a straightforward piece of legislation, to change the law so an election takes place on Thursday Dec. 12. Other smaller opposition parties want a vote on Dec. 9, but the Labour leader has not yet publicly expressed a preference on exactly when the election should take place. The prime minister's spokesman said he would consider alternative dates but did not believe Dec. 9 was logistically possible.The broader risk for Johnson is that his simple bill proposing an election could be re-written as it passes through Parliament on Tuesday. Corbyn told the Commons he would support a move to amend the bill so that all 16-year-olds get to vote. The minimum age for voting in a U.K. general election is currently 18.Corbyn also said he would also support the right of EU citizens living in Britain to vote in the contest, too.Johnson is unlikely to agree to either of these changes to the franchise -- and could even ditch the bill if he is defeated on these points.(Adds Johnson comments in fifth paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.net;Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net;Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Human Smuggling Demands a Human Solution Posted: 29 Oct 2019 08:00 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- There are many possible responses to the tragic deaths of 39 undocumented migrants found in a refrigerated truck container in Essex. The one from the U.K. government should serve as an example of how to make human smuggling even more dangerous and inhumane.It's not clear yet how exactly the immigrants, apparently mostly Vietnamese, died. The relatives of one woman who could have been in the container received panicked text messages from her saying she was suffocating. The family had paid thousands of dollars to send her to the U.K. bypassing the official immigration channels. The truck arrived in the U.K. from the Belgian port of Zeebrugge. Clearly, a smuggling operation went horribly wrong.U.K. Home Secretary Priti Patel outlined the government's response in remarks to parliament on Monday. There's an intelligence-led operation to "to disrupt and deter organized crime gangs using refrigerated and hard-sided lorries to smuggle clandestine migrants." Extra U.K. immigration enforcement officers have been dispatched to Zeebrugge. The driver of the truck was charged with manslaughter and human trafficking, and three more people have been questioned on suspicion of the latter offense."We must be ruthless now in our response," Patel said.In fact, so much more is required from the British and other European governments: They ought to be more humane. They also should understand that people smuggling is essentially a transportation business based on demand from the "passengers." What makes it work are the economic realities of migration. Ignoring the economics and stressing the criminality of people trafficking — a specific variety of smuggling that feeds slavery and cruel exploitation, including in the sex industry — are tactics hard-line politicians such as Patel use to justify replacing reasonable immigration policies with ever tougher enforcement.According to Patel, "the motivations that lead people to try to cross borders illegally are broad and complex." For policy purposes, however, it might be useful to consider the motives as something as simple as the wage disparity among countries. A large-scale study of irregular African migrants in Europe published by the United Nations Development Program this month revealed that 60% of these immigrants, from different countries and circumstances, cite the intention to work and send money home as their primary reason for traveling to Europe. For a further 21%, that's a secondary reason.According to the UN study, 39% of irregular migrants with primary and secondary education who have arrived in Europe since 2005 are earning an income; this goes up to about half for people with vocational training or a college degree. Of those with an income, 78% are sending money home, which amounts to on average one-third of their European income. The study puts the irregular migrants' average income at $1,020 a month. The average cost of traveling to Europe — including, of course, payments to smugglers — was, for the study's respondents, $2,710. This implies that those who managed to find a source of regular income on arrival pay back that cost to their families and friends, who usually help put the money together, within just nine months. That's a powerful economic proposition, which, apart from fueling irregular migration, helps supply the poorer nations with remittances.According to the UN, remittances from both documented and irregular migrants to their families in "remittance-reliant countries" around the world reached $689 billion last year, three times the combined amount of official development aid and foreign direct investment to these nations. The U.K. has a target to spend 0.7% of its gross national income on international development aid. It spent 14.5 billion pounds ($18.7 billion) last year. Using World Bank data from the U.K.'s 2017 bilateral remittances matrix, I calculate U.K.-based migrants from developing countries transferred about $17 billion home that year. Of that amount, $147 million went to Vietnam, the apparent country of origin of the migrants found dead in that truck in Essex.The U.K. would need at least to double its development aid budget, and make sure 100% of the additional money would reach ordinary people, to eliminate the economic incentives to migration.That, of course, would be absolutely unrealistic — and so are expectations that tougher enforcement or a war on people smugglers will significantly reduce irregular migration. A recent University of Chicago study calculated that Italy's major, European Union-backed 2017 anti-smuggler operation that involved funding the Libyan coast guard reduced migrant arrivals by 343 per week in the second half of 2017 — a time when between 5,000 and 12,000 of them arrived every month. The same study pointed out that tougher border enforcement can actually incentivize smuggling, since migrants count on the smugglers to mitigate their risk. It's the smugglers' job to find the routes of less resistance and bribe officials; migrants would find it hard to do that on their own. And no matter how Western governments see the smugglers, their clients will often consider them legitimate, even morally and religiously motivated helpers who only charge them because they face big personal risks and expenses.A reasonable policy aimed at preventing episodes like the mass death in Essex — and, more generally, the 4,000 deaths a year recorded on migratory routs worldwide — should contain elements of both enforcement and a better immigration policy. The enforcement part should consist of punishing actual trafficking — the kind of smuggling that involves burdening migrants with debts they can't repay by working the exploitative jobs they're forced to take upon arrival. That's a form of slavery that can't be tolerated in the civilized world. More information is needed to know whether the people who died in the Essex truck were victims of that kind of scheme. One family of a possible victim reported mortgaging its land to pay upfront for the woman's journey, which suggests the person wasn't going to be beholden to the smugglers on arrival. Either way, the family is now deeply indebted and mourning a loved one.The economic part of the reasonable policy would have allowed the woman to come to the U.K. legally to seek work. The UN study of irregular African migrants shows that a large number are able to find work in receiving countries that pays enough for them to live on and send money home. These people should have had a legitimate opportunity to immigrate, since they contribute to the receiving country's economy and, with their remittances, reduce the need for development aid. Meanwhile, current immigration policies, not just in the U.K. but in all of Europe, are pushing these people away.Shrinking quotas don't keep the migrants out — they just lead to more smuggling and more deaths. Governments could only displace the smugglers by offering the same services to work-seeking migrants, only risk-free. They could even charge for directing people to unfilled, relatively low-paying jobs that would enable them to send money home. This may sound insensitive and certainly the politics in Brexit Britain and other countries make it hard to envisage. But it's still better than Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hollow concern for "innocent people who were hoping for a better life in this country." His country did its best to keep them out, after all, and is trying to make the inevitable journeys of others even riskier.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Human Smuggling Demands a Human Solution Posted: 29 Oct 2019 08:00 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- There are many possible responses to the tragic deaths of 39 undocumented migrants found in a refrigerated truck container in Essex. The one from the U.K. government should serve as an example of how to make human smuggling even more dangerous and inhumane.It's not clear yet how exactly the immigrants, apparently mostly Vietnamese, died. The relatives of one woman who could have been in the container received panicked text messages from her saying she was suffocating. The family had paid thousands of dollars to send her to the U.K. bypassing the official immigration channels. The truck arrived in the U.K. from the Belgian port of Zeebrugge. Clearly, a smuggling operation went horribly wrong.U.K. Home Secretary Priti Patel outlined the government's response in remarks to parliament on Monday. There's an intelligence-led operation to "to disrupt and deter organized crime gangs using refrigerated and hard-sided lorries to smuggle clandestine migrants." Extra U.K. immigration enforcement officers have been dispatched to Zeebrugge. The driver of the truck was charged with manslaughter and human trafficking, and three more people have been questioned on suspicion of the latter offense."We must be ruthless now in our response," Patel said.In fact, so much more is required from the British and other European governments: They ought to be more humane. They also should understand that people smuggling is essentially a transportation business based on demand from the "passengers." What makes it work are the economic realities of migration. Ignoring the economics and stressing the criminality of people trafficking — a specific variety of smuggling that feeds slavery and cruel exploitation, including in the sex industry — are tactics hard-line politicians such as Patel use to justify replacing reasonable immigration policies with ever tougher enforcement.According to Patel, "the motivations that lead people to try to cross borders illegally are broad and complex." For policy purposes, however, it might be useful to consider the motives as something as simple as the wage disparity among countries. A large-scale study of irregular African migrants in Europe published by the United Nations Development Program this month revealed that 60% of these immigrants, from different countries and circumstances, cite the intention to work and send money home as their primary reason for traveling to Europe. For a further 21%, that's a secondary reason.According to the UN study, 39% of irregular migrants with primary and secondary education who have arrived in Europe since 2005 are earning an income; this goes up to about half for people with vocational training or a college degree. Of those with an income, 78% are sending money home, which amounts to on average one-third of their European income. The study puts the irregular migrants' average income at $1,020 a month. The average cost of traveling to Europe — including, of course, payments to smugglers — was, for the study's respondents, $2,710. This implies that those who managed to find a source of regular income on arrival pay back that cost to their families and friends, who usually help put the money together, within just nine months. That's a powerful economic proposition, which, apart from fueling irregular migration, helps supply the poorer nations with remittances.According to the UN, remittances from both documented and irregular migrants to their families in "remittance-reliant countries" around the world reached $689 billion last year, three times the combined amount of official development aid and foreign direct investment to these nations. The U.K. has a target to spend 0.7% of its gross national income on international development aid. It spent 14.5 billion pounds ($18.7 billion) last year. Using World Bank data from the U.K.'s 2017 bilateral remittances matrix, I calculate U.K.-based migrants from developing countries transferred about $17 billion home that year. Of that amount, $147 million went to Vietnam, the apparent country of origin of the migrants found dead in that truck in Essex.The U.K. would need at least to double its development aid budget, and make sure 100% of the additional money would reach ordinary people, to eliminate the economic incentives to migration.That, of course, would be absolutely unrealistic — and so are expectations that tougher enforcement or a war on people smugglers will significantly reduce irregular migration. A recent University of Chicago study calculated that Italy's major, European Union-backed 2017 anti-smuggler operation that involved funding the Libyan coast guard reduced migrant arrivals by 343 per week in the second half of 2017 — a time when between 5,000 and 12,000 of them arrived every month. The same study pointed out that tougher border enforcement can actually incentivize smuggling, since migrants count on the smugglers to mitigate their risk. It's the smugglers' job to find the routes of less resistance and bribe officials; migrants would find it hard to do that on their own. And no matter how Western governments see the smugglers, their clients will often consider them legitimate, even morally and religiously motivated helpers who only charge them because they face big personal risks and expenses.A reasonable policy aimed at preventing episodes like the mass death in Essex — and, more generally, the 4,000 deaths a year recorded on migratory routs worldwide — should contain elements of both enforcement and a better immigration policy. The enforcement part should consist of punishing actual trafficking — the kind of smuggling that involves burdening migrants with debts they can't repay by working the exploitative jobs they're forced to take upon arrival. That's a form of slavery that can't be tolerated in the civilized world. More information is needed to know whether the people who died in the Essex truck were victims of that kind of scheme. One family of a possible victim reported mortgaging its land to pay upfront for the woman's journey, which suggests the person wasn't going to be beholden to the smugglers on arrival. Either way, the family is now deeply indebted and mourning a loved one.The economic part of the reasonable policy would have allowed the woman to come to the U.K. legally to seek work. The UN study of irregular African migrants shows that a large number are able to find work in receiving countries that pays enough for them to live on and send money home. These people should have had a legitimate opportunity to immigrate, since they contribute to the receiving country's economy and, with their remittances, reduce the need for development aid. Meanwhile, current immigration policies, not just in the U.K. but in all of Europe, are pushing these people away.Shrinking quotas don't keep the migrants out — they just lead to more smuggling and more deaths. Governments could only displace the smugglers by offering the same services to work-seeking migrants, only risk-free. They could even charge for directing people to unfilled, relatively low-paying jobs that would enable them to send money home. This may sound insensitive and certainly the politics in Brexit Britain and other countries make it hard to envisage. But it's still better than Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hollow concern for "innocent people who were hoping for a better life in this country." His country did its best to keep them out, after all, and is trying to make the inevitable journeys of others even riskier.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Argentina’s Fernandez Set to Shake Up Policy With U.S. and More Posted: 29 Oct 2019 07:48 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Alberto Fernandez has yet to take office in Argentina. But already diplomats in Buenos Aires are anxiously awaiting what's set to be yet another pendulum swing in the country's foreign policy, this time to the left.That may mean a less fulsome embrace of Donald Trump than incumbent Mauricio Macri, under whom Argentina aligned more with U.S. goals in regional affairs, especially regarding Venezuela.Fernandez has signaled that Argentina will return to its alignment with the left-wing governments of Latin America. That could see closer ties with Mexico and Venezuela, and greater tensions with Brazil, the region's biggest economy.Fernandez doesn't take office until Dec. 10, but the first signs of change were on show within hours of his election win. In an address to supporters at his campaign headquarters, he congratulated Evo Morales -- the socialist who's South America's longest-serving leader -- for securing a fourth term in Bolivia. That's even as the results are still being verified and as Morales's opponents allege fraud.He also called for the release from jail of Brazil's former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a hero for the Latin American left who is serving nearly nine years for graft and money laundering. That drew immediate disapproval from current President Jair Bolsonaro, signaling a rift between the two largest members of the regional trade bloc known as Mercosur.Argentina's Fernandez Has Outreach Coffee With Defeated MacriFernandez is also poised to make Mexico the destination of his first international trip, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. There he would meet on Monday with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, one of the most popular left-wing presidents in the world with an approval rating over 60%.The initial actions point to a shift from the U.S.-focused, business-driven foreign policy of Macri toward the more ideological approach favored by the radical left elements in Fernandez's coalition, who see international relations as an extension of domestic politics.His running mate adds to that perception. The incoming vice president is Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who in her time as president favored alliances with leftist leaders and invited tension with western nations.Here are the main hot spots for Argentine foreign policy under Fernandez:VenezuelaFernandez's policy toward Venezuela is important not just for President Nicolas Maduro but for the U.S. as well.Under Macri, Argentina was a leader of the Lima Group, an ad-hoc outfit created in 2017 by nations seeking free elections in Venezuela that's been increasingly critical of Maduro's regime. During the campaign, Fernandez suggested Argentina could leave the group and align with Mexico and Uruguay, which have taken a less confrontational approach. He's also demurred on calling Venezuela a dictatorship -- a term Macri has repeatedly used.Any move to leave the Lima Group would be viewed with concern by Brazil and the U.S., which has taken a strong stance against Maduro. While Fernandez didn't mention Venezuela in his victory speech, his triumph was celebrated by Maduro as a defeat of neoliberalism.Fernandez replied with an ambiguous message to the Venezuelan leader on the same social media platform, saying "true democracy" in Latin America is the way to overcome poverty and inequality in the region.BrazilTies with Brazil and its right-wing president will be a key test for South America's top two economies.During the campaign and even on election night, Fernandez repeatedly called for the release of Lula, whom he visited in prison in July. That has irritated Bolsonaro and those who see his comments as interfering in Brazil's judicial decisions. Bolsonaro, who has warned that Brazil could leave Mercosur if Argentina pivots to the left, on Monday declined to congratulate Fernandez for his election win -- he said Brazil could potentially join forces with other members of the trade bloc to suspend Argentina.Diplomats in Brasilia say their hope is Fernandez takes a more pragmatic approach once in office, and that he realizes the value of the trade partnership.The U.S.For the U.S., Fernandez's elevation presents a risk after the close alliance between Macri and Trump. The last thing Washington wants is another outspoken Latin American leftist who would reinforce the position of Maduro and the regime in Cuba.In that sense, the U.S. has an incentive to reach out to Fernandez -- particularly given the strong investment of U.S. companies in the country -- and work with the more pragmatic elements of his government. The U.S. is also seeking to curb China's influence in the region.As the largest shareholder in the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. will be key to unlocking negotiations between the new government and the Washington-based organization over Argentina's $56 billion funding program, which is currently on hold. While the IMF board will wait to see the details of Fernandez's economic plan, Washington does have some sway.Argentina's policy toward Venezuela will be key in these talks. Washington may be less willing to give much support at the IMF if Argentina sides with Maduro.U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo congratulated Fernandez on his election win, but Trump has yet to comment.ChinaArgentina's economy is in crisis. Fernandez has promised to end the austerity of Macri, but there is no money in the state coffers to do so. That could mean he turns toward China, which has shown a willingness to dip into its famous deep pockets and extend long-term loans in other countries.If Fernandez weakens ties with the U.S., it could also give an opportunity for China to come in and send more defense equipment to Argentina. President Xi Jinping made a state visit to Buenos Aires a year ago alongside the Group of 20 summit."The Fernandez government will likely deepen economic and political ties with Beijing — with the particular goal of seeking much-needed financing from China," said Kezia McKeague, a director at McLarty Associates in Washington DC. "That said, President Macri had already ably walked a geopolitical tight rope of maintaining good relationships with both Washington and Beijing."(Updates with Mexico trip date in 6th paragraph, reply to Maduro in 13.)\--With assistance from Samy Adghirni and Peter Martin.To contact the reporter on this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto in Mexico City at jspinetto@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, Daniel Ten KateFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Egypt arrests train conductor after youth jumps to his death Posted: 29 Oct 2019 07:33 AM PDT  An Egyptian train conductor who forced two poor street vendors without tickets to jump off a moving train, leading to the death of one of the youths, has been arrested, authorities said Tuesday. Footage of an ensuing argument between the conductor and other passengers on the train went viral, along with calls on social media for the resignation of Egypt's Transportation Minister Kamel el-Wazir. Railway authorities said the conductor demanded the youths "pay tickets but they refused," after which he opened a carriage door for them to jump.
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| Putin hosts Cuban leader for talks on expanding ties Posted: 29 Oct 2019 07:32 AM PDT  Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed Cuba's resilience in the face of U.S. pressure as he hosted his Cuban counterparts for talks Tuesday on expanding cooperation between the old allies. Putin told Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel that Russia has always remained supportive of Cuba. "It's not easy to solve economic and social issues in the conditions that Cuba finds itself in, but you have done it successfully," he said.
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