| Bus near Saudi holy city of Mecca crashes, killing 35 people Posted: 16 Oct 2019 06:24 PM PDT ![Bus near Saudi holy city of Mecca crashes, killing 35 people]( "Bus near Saudi holy city of Mecca crashes, killing 35 people") Authorities in Saudi Arabia say 35 pilgrims have been killed in a bus crash near the Muslim holy city of Mecca. The state-run Saudi Press Agency reported Thursday that four others were injured in the crash. The agency, quoting police in Saudi Arabia's Medina province, said the crash happened around 7 p.m. Wednesday on the road linking Mecca to the city of Medina.
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| Trump dismisses Syria concerns; Dems walk out of WH meeting Posted: 16 Oct 2019 06:13 PM PDT  Washing his hands of Syria, President Donald Trump declared Wednesday the U.S. has no stake in defending the Kurdish fighters who died by the thousands as America's partners against IS extremists. Hours later, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats walked out of a meeting at the White House, accusing him of having a "meltdown," calling her a "third-grade politician" and having no plan to deal with a potentially revived Islamic State group. Condemnation of Trump's stance on Turkey, Syria and the Kurds was quick and severe during the day, not only from Democrats but from Republicans who have been staunch supporters on virtually all issues.
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| AP FACT CHECK: Trump muddles facts on US Syria withdrawal Posted: 16 Oct 2019 05:35 PM PDT  President Donald Trump muddled the facts Wednesday on America's withdrawal from Syria and the conditions on the ground there, as he distanced himself and the U.S. from the ongoing Turkish invasion into Syria. TRUMP: "We were supposed to be in Syria for one month. THE FACTS: Previous administrations never set a one-month timeline for U.S. involvement in Syria.
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| Africans fail to get UN support for AU-UN envoy for Libya Posted: 16 Oct 2019 05:18 PM PDT ![Africans fail to get UN support for AU-UN envoy for Libya]( "Africans fail to get UN support for AU-UN envoy for Libya") African members of the Security Council tried unsuccessfully Wednesday to appoint a joint African Union-United Nations envoy for conflict-torn Libya, in an apparent attempt to replace current U.N. envoy Ghassan Salame. South Africa, Ivory Coast and Equatorial Guinea were following up on decisions by the AU High Level Committee on Libya on July 8 and the AU Peace and Security Council on Sept. 27 in New York calling for a joint envoy.
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| Donald Trump pours gasoline on Syria. Now Turkey-Kurds-Russia blowup may one day burn USA. Posted: 16 Oct 2019 04:10 PM PDT  Surrendering to Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan has yielded in 10 days a humanitarian crisis and wins for Bashar Assad, ISIS and Iran: Our view
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| Syrian forces enter key border town, blocking Turkish plans Posted: 16 Oct 2019 04:02 PM PDT  Syrian forces on Wednesday night rolled into the strategic border town of Kobani, blocking one path for the Turkish military to establish a "safe zone" free of Syrian Kurdish fighters along the frontier as part of its week-old offensive. The seizure of Kobani by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad also pointed to a dramatic shift in northeastern Syria: The town was where the United States military and Kurdish fighters first united to defeat the Islamic State group four years ago and holds powerful symbolism for Syrian Kurds and their ambitions of self-rule.
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| Everyone Backs Budget Spending Except People Who Control Budgets Posted: 16 Oct 2019 04:00 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Governments are failing to heed the pleas of their central bankers for more spending to support a slowing world economy.Monetary policy makers say they're running out of room to cut interest rates, which are already at historic lows, and it's time for their fiscal counterparts to take the lead in trying to spur demand. But a review of budget plans in a dozen capitals suggests politicians aren't stepping up particularly fast –- even though it's cheap or free to borrow on bond markets.That spells more bad news for global growth. The International Monetary Fund this week predicted the weakest expansion in a decade amid the U.S.-China trade war, and warned that budget chiefs in major economies "should be prepared for coordinated action in case of a severe downturn."And it's a missed opportunity, according to a recent study by Oxford Economics. It found that in almost all large developed countries, and some of the main emerging markets too, spending an additional 1% of gross domestic product would deliver more than that amount of growth for each economy -– and have knock-on benefits for others too.What Bloomberg's Economists Say"With growth fading, monetary policy space depleted, and borrowing costs low, the obvious solution is fiscal stimulus. In various configurations, fractious politics, institutional constraints and high debt make the obvious solution difficult to deliver.''-- Tom Orlik, chief economistFollowing is an overview of the fiscal state of play in the world's most important economies.It's harder to track budget stimulus than the monetary kind, because taxes and spending happen at both national and local levels. The headline numbers below are from the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor, published this week, and may differ from those provided by finance ministries.U.S.: Tax Cuts 2.0? Probably Not2019 Forecast: -5.6% of GDP (deficit)2020 Forecast: -5.5%President Donald Trump juiced the economy last year with a $1.5 trillion package of tax cuts along with increases in spending, especially for the military. But the effect has petered out in 2019, and concern that the economy could slide into recession is mounting.Trump, who's up for re-election in a year's time, has held out the prospect of more stimulus. Last month, he promised "very substantial" tax cuts in 2020 that would benefit "middle-income" Americans -- maybe a nod to the widespread view among economists that the last round favored the wealthy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin referred to "Tax Cuts 2.0."Little more has been heard of the idea. Trump's comment coincided with the start of a televised debate among his Democratic rivals, and the fact he's dropped similar hints before without following up has left many analysts skeptical. In any case, Trump's Republicans lost control of the House at the end of last year. So any new package would need support from Democratic lawmakers whose spending priorities are different."The chance of additional fiscal stimulus being incorporated ahead of the 2020 election is remote, given the nearly insurmountable hurdle of crafting a package that would appeal to both House Democrats and Senate Republicans -- particularly given the increasingly toxic climate amid impeachment investigations."-- Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg EconomicsChina: Trade-War Defenses 2019 Forecast: -6.1% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -6.3%China rolled out tax cuts on personal income and corporate profits early this year that are estimated to be worth 2 trillion yuan ($280 billion), and Finance Minister Liu Kun said last month that they've had a bigger than expected impact.The central government's budget only captures part of what policy makers are doing to stimulate the economy. The IMF figures also include spending by local authorities. China has been allowing them to issue more off-balance-sheet debt this year to pay for infrastructure.With officials keen to offset the trade war's impact on growth, fiscal stimulus is likely to continue, but the swelling deficit will eventually crimp their options."China has more fiscal space compared to many major economies. Fiscal support is likely to continue to play an important role in stabilizing growth in 2020. The government is seen to focus on infrastructure spending and implementing the tax cut plans announced this year."-- Chang Shu, Bloomberg EconomicsJapan: Tightening Taxes2019 Forecast: -3.0% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -2.2%Japan has just raised its sales tax to help trim public debt. That doesn't mean Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is averse to more fiscal stimulus.Abe reiterated this week that he would deploy measures "without hesitation" if the economy is at risk from the tax increase and the global slowdown. Interest rates on government bonds are ultra-low, and the central bank hoovers up much of the debt anyway, so Japan arguably has plenty of scope to borrow.That combination is cited by some economists, including modern monetary theorists, as an example of how governments needn't fear borrowing more to support growth. Others say a shrinking and aging population means Japan isn't in a position to borrow more."The Abe administration isn't simply using the proceeds from the tax hike to rein in its budget deficit. It's already earmarked all the extra revenue in the first year, to pay for free pre-school education or aid to the elderly. Even so, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe likely won't hesitate to add extra stimulus if Japan's economy looks set to fall into a technical recession."\-- Yuki Masujima, Bloomberg EconomicsGermany: Hard-Money Outlier? 2019 Forecast: +1.1% (surplus)2020 Forecast: +1.0%Germany, the poster child for budget rectitude in the euro region, faces increasing pressure to loosen purse strings and deploy its fiscal power for the benefit not only of its own sickly economy, but also those of its neighbors.While the government is stepping up investments and actively considering measures from subsidies for electric cars to corporate tax write-offs, officials are not yet committed to wholesale action.That's because there's been no consensus for stimulus in Germany, where fiscal surpluses are often seen as a mark of political virility -- though there are signs that lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel's party may be softening their long-held commitment to the "black zero" of a balanced budget."Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has drawn up plans for fiscal stimulus, but only should the economic outlook take another turn for the worse. The risk is that this comes too late to stave off the most damaging impacts."-- Jamie Rush and Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg EconomicsFrance: Yellow Vests Recede2019 Forecast: -3.3% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -2.2%The Yellow Vest protests plunged Emmanuel Macron into the deepest political crisis of his presidency -- and prodded him to unleash what now looks like prescient fiscal stimulus.Tax cuts gave households a 17 billion euro shot in the arm this year, while business enjoyed a one-time boost from changes to tax credits.But the government is switching tack in 2020, planning to trim public debt that's already close to 100% of GDP. The national auditor has warned that Macron's Yellow-Vest largesse leaves little room for maneuver in a deeper crisis. Paris has been reduced to pleading with Berlin to pick up the baton of fiscal stimulus in the euro area.Italy: Not Much Room 2019 Forecast: -2.0% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -2.5%Italy has been stretching European budget rules to their limits -- but those rules ultimately mean that with its chronically low growth and high debt, the country doesn't have much money to spare to stimulate the economyFinance Minister Roberto Gualtieri's main priority is to avoid a sales tax hike in 2020 that would depress demand. That will carry a 23 billion euro ($25 billion) price tag -- and leave little room for anything else."The big risk now is that budget cuts required to avoid raising sales taxes drive a wedge between the two parties in Italy's fragile coalition government. If that were to collapse, the Northern League's Matteo Salvini would potentially rise to power and take the fight to Brussels over spending."-- Jamie Rush and Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg EconomicsU.K.: Return of the Spenders?2019 Forecast: -1.4%2020 Forecast: -1.5%IMF predictions may not capture recent developments in Britain -- which point to a significant fiscal loosening, whoever wins the general election that's widely expected to be called soon.Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a big increase in public spending last month, and has promised billions of pounds of income-tax cuts. The opposition Labour Party says it plans to borrow to fund its 250 billion-pound ($316 billion) capital investment program.That would mark an about-turn for a country that's been austerity-minded for much of the past decade. Back in March, forecasts showed a shrinking budget deficit, but now they're pointing in the opposite direction -- and the gap could widen even more if the U.K. crashes out of the European Union without a deal."The age of austerity in the U.K. is over. Johnson or Corbyn; no-deal or no Brexit -- a loosening of fiscal policy in 2020 is a surefire bet. The current government recently gave a taste of what's to come by announcing an extra 13 billion pounds (0.6% GDP) of spending next year. More giveaways are likely to follow in the upcoming budget."--Dan Hanson, Bloomberg EconomicsIndia: Corporate Surprise 2019 Forecast: -7.5% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -7.2%India has also announced budget easing in recent weeks, after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman -- whose July budget was fairly conservative -- was confronted with growing evidence of a slowdown in the economy.He responded with several fiscal measures to spur growth. The biggest was a surprise cut in corporate taxes last month that will cost $20 billion, a move aimed at encouraging investment. As a result, Fitch Ratings and other analysts now predict that the central government may miss its budget-deficit targets for the fiscal year through March.South Korea: Time for Action2019 Forecast: +0.7% (surplus)2020 Forecast: -0.8% (deficit)South Korea, which has been running budget surpluses and has relatively little public debt, is now ramping up spending to support its export-dependent economy amid a global slowdown and trade tensions.Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki said next year's budget would be "as expansionary as possible." It's set to post a deficit for the first time since the global financial crisis -- because the economy is probably growing at its slowest pace in that period.Trade tensions have pummeled Korea's exports, and last month consumer prices fell for the first time on record. "With the economic slump becoming prolonged, growth would be hit if the government just stood by," said Shin Kwan-ho, an economics professor at Korea University in Seoul.Mexico: Nothing Radical 2019 Forecast: -2.8% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -2.6%Mexicans elected Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, by a landslide last year after he promised big changes to end decades of sub-par economic growth. But when it comes to fiscal policy, the left-leaning president has stuck with the cautious approach of his predecessors.His government aims to run a primary surplus (before interest payments) of 1% of GDP this year, the biggest in a decade, and is willing to use a rainy-day oil fund to meet that goal if necessary.That budget discipline, plus a real interest rate that's among the world's highest, has kept the peso steady. It hasn't done much for the economy, which narrowly avoided a recession in the second quarter.Brazil: Pension Trim2019 Forecast: -7.5% (deficit)2020 Forecast: -6.9%The government is seeking to clamp down on spending to fulfill pledges of cutting debt and strengthening public finances, though the effect is forecast to be gradual.At the forefront of those plans is a pension reform that aims to save the government some 800 billion reais ($196 billion) over a decade. That proposal is poised for final approval in the Senate this month.Still, the government's budget plans have hit some headwinds. Sluggish growth is hurting tax income and policy makers are struggling to comply with a law that caps overall public spending increases. But even if deficit reduction proceeds more slowly than forecast, any bets on Brazilian fiscal stimulus are off.Russia: Rainy-Day Surpluses 2019 Forecast: +1.0% (surplus)2020 Forecast: +0.1%If any country has room to add some stimulus, Russia has. After several years of tight budgets, and with the economy at a near standstill, the government is starting to ease the austerity.The Finance Ministry expects the budget surplus to shrink this year, and it plans to keep accelerating investment into 2020. Mild stimulus is better than no stimulus, but it will take years of slow-burning reforms and investment to boost growth meaningfully, says Scott Johnson at Bloomberg Economics. Policy makers seem to recognize that.\--With assistance from Simon Kennedy, Zoe Schneeweiss, Alex Tanzi, Katia Dmitrieva, Craig Stirling, Fergal O'Brien, Andrew Atkinson, Matthew Malinowski, Anirban Nag, Nasreen Seria, Sam Kim, James Mayger, Paul Jackson and Anna Andrianova.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Ben Holland in Washington at bholland1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at skennedy4@bloomberg.net, Ben Holland, Robert JamesonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| The Latest: US airstrikes destroy ammo left behind in Syria Posted: 16 Oct 2019 03:51 PM PDT  Two U.S. fighter jets launched airstrikes Wednesday to destroy ammunition that was left behind when American forces left a cement factory south of Kobani, Syria. The factory had served as a coordination center for the U.S.-led coalition and Kurdish forces in the fight against the Islamic State group. Most of the 1,000 U.S. forces in Syria are being withdrawn over the coming days and weeks because of the Turkish invasion into northern Syria and the attack on Kurdish forces.
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| Trump-Erdogan Call Led to Lengthy Quest to Avoid Halkbank Trial Posted: 16 Oct 2019 03:50 PM PDT ![Trump-Erdogan Call Led to Lengthy Quest to Avoid Halkbank Trial]( "Trump-Erdogan Call Led to Lengthy Quest to Avoid Halkbank Trial") (Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump assigned his attorney general and Treasury secretary to deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's repeated pleas to avoid charges against one of Turkey's largest banks, according to two people familiar with the matter.In an April phone call, Trump told Erdogan that William Barr and Steven Mnuchin would handle the issue, the people said. In the months that followed, no action was taken against Halkbank for its alleged involvement in a massive scheme to evade sanctions on Iran. That changed when an undated indictment was unveiled Tuesday -- a day after Trump imposed sanctions over Turkey's military operation in northern Syria.It marked an unusual intervention by a president to get his top cabinet officials involved in an active federal investigation. It's not clear whether Trump instructed Barr and Mnuchin to satisfy Erdogan's pleas or whether the president was simply tired of being asked about it.But according to a third person who's familiar with Turkey's position, discussions over a deal that would resolve the issue out of court made little headway before Barr took over as attorney general in February and then became involved in the discussions.Over the summer, the White House sought to stop Erdogan and his aides from pestering Trump on the matter, according to a person who was briefed on a number of phone calls that took place and asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. In June, the person said, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton told a Turkish official, Ibrahim Kalin, that Trump wouldn't engage on the issue directly after delegating it and that Turkish officials should stop raising it with the president.In a call at about the same time, Barr told his Turkish counterpart, Abdulhamit Gul, that he needed to reach a deal with the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, where the case was under consideration, or it would go to trial. He said Turkey's best option would be to accept a deferred prosecution agreement under which Halkbank would pay a fine and take steps to avoid further wrongdoing.After months of negotiations, Turkish officials ultimately refused because they believed doing so would constitute an admission of guilt, according to the person. A second person familiar with the discussions confirmed that Turkey refused to accept the deal but said there had been progress toward a resolution.President's PriorityTrump's involvement and his decision to assign Barr and Mnuchin to address the sensitive issue, working with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, reflected the degree to which the Halkbank case became a priority for the president.In the end, U.S. prosecutors filed criminal charges against Halkbank, accusing it of fraud, money laundering and violating U.S. sanctions against Iran. It's unclear exactly when the Halkbank indictment was filed, raising questions about whether it was set aside until it became politically expedient for the Trump administration to unseal it.The White House didn't have advance notice there was an indictment against the bank or when it was going to be unsealed, according to an administration official.Justice Department officials declined to comment when asked about Barr's efforts, and the Treasury Department declined to comment on Mnuchin's role. The White House declined to comment, and the State Department declined to discuss the part Pompeo played. Bolton declined to comment.The politically explosive indictment came as Turkish-U.S. tensions are soaring over Turkey's military offensive in Syria after Trump's withdrawal of American forces from key border posts last week. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence and Pompeo were due to travel to Ankara for talks with Erdogan over the conflict in Syria.The charges against Halkbank also come after years of public and private lobbying by Erdogan and other top Turkish officials -- starting in the Obama administration -- to get the investigations into violations of Iran sanctions dropped.The matter is the latest instance linked to Turkey in which Trump has pressed for a solution beyond the bounds of the courtroom. In multiple meetings in 2017, Trump urged then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to persuade the Justice Department to drop the case against Reza Zarrab, a Turkish-Iranian gold trader at the center of the scheme to violate the sanctions.Rudy Giuliani, who later became Trump's personal attorney, represented Zarrab and pressed Trump to intervene on his client's behalf.Zarrab, a Turkish gold trader, ultimately pleaded guilty and became the star witness against a bank executive, Mehmet Hakan Atilla. Zarrab recounted how he'd helped Iran tap funds from overseas oil sales that were frozen in foreign accounts. Atilla was convicted in early 2018.Together, the episodes demonstrate Trump's receptiveness to Erdogan's desire to avoid criminal proceedings that could shed an unflattering light on his government.Mnuchin and the Treasury Department were also involved because they had a role in determining the size of a regulatory penalty against Halkbank after Atilla was convicted in January of last year of helping violate the Iran sanctions.Critics said they grew alarmed that the fine hadn't been issued more than a year after the executive's conviction in January 2018. Some suspected that Erdogan's persistent lobbying about the Halkbank case -- he brought it up during the Obama administration, including twice in meetings with Vice President Joe Biden, only to be rebuffed -- successfully persuaded Trump administration officials to hold back.Evidence 'Overwhelming'"The evidence against Halkbank and, by extension, the Turkish government was overwhelming in this case," said Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "But the Turks went full-force lobbying the Trump administration on this to avoid accountability. Frankly, some in the Trump administration were all too receptive to arguments that the mess was the result of Obama rather than a deliberate scheme on the part of the Turks."Halkbank did hire powerful lobbyists to advocate on its behalf before the Trump administration, according to Justice Department filings. One such lobbying firm was Ballard Partners, which was paid almost $780,000 from November 2018 through March of this year to work on Halkbank's behalf. It renewed its contract for $40,000 a month in late July."What we had been doing was making the case to relevant administration officials about the importance of this bank to the financial system of Turkey and Turkey's economy and that, in taking into account that Turkey is a NATO ally and the potential implications, the steps against the bank would have profound repercussions," Ballard partner Jamie Rubin, a State Department spokesman in the Clinton administration, said in an interview.Rubin said Ballard ended its contract with Halkbank as of Wednesday."Since the matter is now in the judicial system this is a natural endpoint for our representation," Rubin said in an interview.Turkey Decision-MakingCritics of Trump's decision-making on Turkey also point to his refusal so far to sanction the country over its decision to purchase the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, as U.S. law requires. When Turkey started receiving parts for the system this summer, the State Department forwarded a list of recommended sanctions to the White House, only to have Trump ignore them, Bloomberg News reported at the time.While Trump has been silent on the Halkbank case, public evidence suggests that he's talked to others beyond his top staff about it. In an August phone call with a pair of Russian pranksters who presented themselves as Turkey's defense minister, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Trump was "very sensitive" to the "case involving the Turkish bank," according to Politico."The president wants to be helpful, within the limits of his power," said Graham, a close Trump ally.(Updates with administration official comment in 10th paragraph.)\--With assistance from Chris Strohm.To contact the reporters on this story: Nick Wadhams in Washington at nwadhams@bloomberg.net;Jennifer Jacobs in Washington at jjacobs68@bloomberg.net;Saleha Mohsin in Washington at smohsin2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Bill Faries at wfaries@bloomberg.net, ;Kevin Whitelaw at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net, Larry LiebertFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| The Trump Doctrine: American Unexceptionalism Posted: 16 Oct 2019 03:45 PM PDT ![The Trump Doctrine: American Unexceptionalism]( "The Trump Doctrine: American Unexceptionalism") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- According to President Donald Trump, Turkey's invasion of northern Syria "has nothing to do with us." America's longtime adversaries in the region — Syria, Iran and Russia — should be left to fight Islamic State. And it's good that Syria is now protecting the Kurds he has just abandoned. Trump's two rambling appearances in the White House on Wednesday are notable not merely for their incoherence, which is by now familiar. They amount to a raw expression of his foreign policy: He is the leading proponent of what might be called American unexceptionalism.Trump's comments are baffling for many reasons. He is sending Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence to Ankara Thursday to plead with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to pull back his forces and agree to a cease-fire. If the Turkish invasion is of no concern to the U.S., why send the vice president and secretary of state? Why send Erdogan a letter urging him to negotiate with the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces?Furthermore, Trump has boasted of America's great success in the war against Islamic State, a war in which the Syrian Kurds fought alongside the U.S. and lost 11,000 soldiers. Trump now claims Trump then was a sucker. He could have let Iran, Russia, Syria and others in the region fight against Islamic State.There is a temptation to call this isolationism. But that's not quite right. Trump seeks regime change in Venezuela. His administration is pressing allies to keep China out of their 5G networks. The president inveighs against endless military wars, while gleefully waging economic ones on nominal allies such as Turkey and regional enemies like Iran. He threatens North Korea's tyrant with annihilation only to be charmed by his lies after a few personal meetings. As a believer in American unexceptionalism, Trump sees the world as a savage place, and the U.S. is just as savage as its adversaries. The lofty ideals of Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy are a sham. As Trump said in 2017, just weeks into his tenure: "You think our country's so innocent?"In fairness to Trump, he is not alone in seeing American idealism as an elaborate con. Thinkers such as Noam Chomsky have made a version of this argument for years. There is a strain of American foreign policy realism based on the idea that the rules-based international system camouflages the inherent chaos of state competition. The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must, as Thucydides wrote.This worldview may seem clarifying, even liberating, for a superpower. But it also leads to decline. Ten years ago this month, Charles Krauthammer made this point in a stinging and now-famous lecture. "The fundamental consequence" of seeing America as unexceptional, he said, was "to effectively undermine any moral claim that America might have to world leadership, as well as the moral confidence that any nation needs to have in order to justify to itself and to others its position of leadership."At the time, Krauthammer was worried that President Barack Obama was ceding U.S. foreign policy to international institutions such as the United Nations. Obama, Krauthammer said, was surrendering America's global leadership out of guilt.Trump, by contrast, seeks abdication out of pride. He vents about the trillions the U.S. has spent on endless wars in the Middle East. He worries about allies ripping off America.Nonetheless, both Trump and Obama ended up in the same place in Syria. Obama's CIA funded and helped to arm a Free Syrian Army only to allow it to be slaughtered by Russia, Iran and the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo in 2016. Trump increased U.S. support for the Kurdish fighters in northern Syria against Islamic State, only to betray them to Turkey.Krauthammer's point was that American decline was not inevitable. The title of his lecture, a decade later, remains bracing: "Decline Is a Choice." How, then, to characterize the choice Trump has made? Last week, northern Syria was relatively peaceful. Now it is chaos. Russian officers are touring bases abandoned by U.S. soldiers. A NATO ally is slaughtering America's Kurdish partners. Islamic State prisoners are breaking out of jails.It would be charitable to say Trump has chosen decline in Syria. It's more accurate to say that he has chosen collapse.To contact the author of this story: Eli Lake at elake1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Newman at mnewman43@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| The Trump Doctrine: American Unexceptionalism Posted: 16 Oct 2019 03:45 PM PDT ![The Trump Doctrine: American Unexceptionalism]( "The Trump Doctrine: American Unexceptionalism") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- According to President Donald Trump, Turkey's invasion of northern Syria "has nothing to do with us." America's longtime adversaries in the region — Syria, Iran and Russia — should be left to fight Islamic State. And it's good that Syria is now protecting the Kurds he has just abandoned. Trump's two rambling appearances in the White House on Wednesday are notable not merely for their incoherence, which is by now familiar. They amount to a raw expression of his foreign policy: He is the leading proponent of what might be called American unexceptionalism.Trump's comments are baffling for many reasons. He is sending Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence to Ankara Thursday to plead with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to pull back his forces and agree to a cease-fire. If the Turkish invasion is of no concern to the U.S., why send the vice president and secretary of state? Why send Erdogan a letter urging him to negotiate with the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces?Furthermore, Trump has boasted of America's great success in the war against Islamic State, a war in which the Syrian Kurds fought alongside the U.S. and lost 11,000 soldiers. Trump now claims Trump then was a sucker. He could have let Iran, Russia, Syria and others in the region fight against Islamic State.There is a temptation to call this isolationism. But that's not quite right. Trump seeks regime change in Venezuela. His administration is pressing allies to keep China out of their 5G networks. The president inveighs against endless military wars, while gleefully waging economic ones on nominal allies such as Turkey and regional enemies like Iran. He threatens North Korea's tyrant with annihilation only to be charmed by his lies after a few personal meetings. As a believer in American unexceptionalism, Trump sees the world as a savage place, and the U.S. is just as savage as its adversaries. The lofty ideals of Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy are a sham. As Trump said in 2017, just weeks into his tenure: "You think our country's so innocent?"In fairness to Trump, he is not alone in seeing American idealism as an elaborate con. Thinkers such as Noam Chomsky have made a version of this argument for years. There is a strain of American foreign policy realism based on the idea that the rules-based international system camouflages the inherent chaos of state competition. The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must, as Thucydides wrote.This worldview may seem clarifying, even liberating, for a superpower. But it also leads to decline. Ten years ago this month, Charles Krauthammer made this point in a stinging and now-famous lecture. "The fundamental consequence" of seeing America as unexceptional, he said, was "to effectively undermine any moral claim that America might have to world leadership, as well as the moral confidence that any nation needs to have in order to justify to itself and to others its position of leadership."At the time, Krauthammer was worried that President Barack Obama was ceding U.S. foreign policy to international institutions such as the United Nations. Obama, Krauthammer said, was surrendering America's global leadership out of guilt.Trump, by contrast, seeks abdication out of pride. He vents about the trillions the U.S. has spent on endless wars in the Middle East. He worries about allies ripping off America.Nonetheless, both Trump and Obama ended up in the same place in Syria. Obama's CIA funded and helped to arm a Free Syrian Army only to allow it to be slaughtered by Russia, Iran and the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo in 2016. Trump increased U.S. support for the Kurdish fighters in northern Syria against Islamic State, only to betray them to Turkey.Krauthammer's point was that American decline was not inevitable. The title of his lecture, a decade later, remains bracing: "Decline Is a Choice." How, then, to characterize the choice Trump has made? Last week, northern Syria was relatively peaceful. Now it is chaos. Russian officers are touring bases abandoned by U.S. soldiers. A NATO ally is slaughtering America's Kurdish partners. Islamic State prisoners are breaking out of jails.It would be charitable to say Trump has chosen decline in Syria. It's more accurate to say that he has chosen collapse.To contact the author of this story: Eli Lake at elake1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Newman at mnewman43@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Trump Rages at Pelosi, Mattis, and Communists During ‘Meltdown’ in White House Meeting Posted: 16 Oct 2019 03:30 PM PDT  Brendan Smialowski/AFP/GettyPresident Donald Trump invited Democratic Party leaders to the White House on Wednesday and proceeded to have what those leaders described as a "meltdown" in front of them. Before the lawmakers left early, Trump managed to rail against communists, his own former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and House speaker Nancy Pelosi, whom he called "a third-rate politician," according to the Democratic leaders and sources' descriptions of the meeting.Shortly after the brief, cross-partisan meeting with the president in the Cabinet Room—which was convened to discuss Syria and Turkey-related matters—Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) emerged to give a readout to reporters on what was, in Schumer's words, Trump's "nasty diatribe.""What we witnessed on the part of the president was a meltdown—sad to say," Pelosi told reporters. "I think that vote, the size of the vote—more than 2-to-1 of the Republicans voted to oppose what the president did [on troops in Syria]—it probably got to the president, because he was shaken up by it [and] that's why we couldn't continue in the meeting because he was just not relating to the reality of it."Schumer asserted that Pelosi "kept her cool completely" even while Trump sniped that "there are communists involved [in Syria] and you guys might like that."The president even took a shot at his former defense secretary—who quit late last year over policy disagreements—when the conversation on Wednesday afternoon touched on foreign policy and a potential rejuvenation of ISIS fighters in Syria. According to a Democratic source familiar with what happened in that meeting, Schumer at one point pulled out a piece of paper featuring quotes from Mattis' interview on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. The Democratic leader began reading to the president the statement that Mattis made on that Sunday show, that "if we don't keep the pressure on, then ISIS will resurge. It's absolutely a given that they will come back."Trump, this source said, then interrupted Schumer, and insisted that Mattis was "the world's most overrated general.""You know why?" the president continued, according to the source. "He wasn't tough enough. I captured ISIS. Mattis said it would take two years. I captured them in one month." Trump also repeatedly claimed that of the ISIS prisoners who escaped when Turkish forces invaded northeast Syria (an invasion Trump all but greenlit), only the "least dangerous" individuals got out.Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, asked to confirm the president's assertion that those ISIS prisoners who escape were the "least dangerous," told Schumer he didn't know, according to the source. At one point, Trump is said to have claimed that "someone wanted this meeting so I agreed to it," despite the White House having called the meeting.Pelosi, for her part, told Trump that Russia has long wanted a "foothold in the Middle East," adding that because of the president's actions, the Russian government now has it. "All roads with you lead to Putin," the House speaker jabbed, according to one senior Democratic aide."I hate ISIS more than you do," Trump shot back at Pelosi, this aide noted, with Pelosi replying, "You don't know that."Later in the day, Pelosi, in the escalating round of insults hurled between the West Wing and Capitol Hill, told reporters, "I think now we have to pray for [Trump's] health. Because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president."There was even a point in this meeting, the Democratic aide said, that President Trump distributed to attendees the October 9 letter he sent to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the one that read, "You don't want to be responsible for slaughtering thousands of people, and I don't want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy—and I will." Trump's letter also includes the lines, "Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool! I will call you later."This was taken as an attempt by the president to demonstrate to all the Republicans and Democrats in the room that he was being sufficiently tough on Erdoğan, and as an effort to convince those present that he did not greenlight the Turkish invasion, which is currently causing political backlash at home, and slaughter and mayhem abroad.The president's aides, meanwhile, sought to place the blame for the derailed meeting on the Democratic leaders' decision to walk out over Trump's "nasty" words directed at Pelosi."Her decision to walk out was baffling, but not surprising," White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham emailed The Daily Beast shortly after the Democrats' comments to White House press. "Speaker Pelosi had no intention of listening or contributing to an important meeting on national security issues. While Democratic leadership chose to storm out and get in front of the cameras to whine, everyone else in the meeting chose to stay in the room and work on behalf of this country."Trump later tweeted a flurry of photos from the meeting that he claimed showed the Democrats had tanked the meeting, including one in which he accused Pelosi of having an "unhinged meltdown." This wouldn't be the first time this year that a meeting at the White House involving Trump, Pelosi, and Schumer completely degenerated so quickly. Early this year, during a Friday meeting on the government shutdown, President Trump started the gathering by launching a 15-minute, profanity-encrusted rant that included him demanding his border wall, and, unprompted, complaining about Democratic lawmakers who want to impeach him. At the time, Trump told attendees that he was, simply put, too popular a president to impeach.Today, Trump and his administration are currently fighting back against an ongoing, rapidly accelerating impeachment inquiry, with Democrats on Capitol Hill hoping to hold a vote on his impeachment before the end of the year. Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| U.S. Senators Defy China Threat, Press Ahead With Hong Kong Bill Posted: 16 Oct 2019 03:13 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Republican senators said Wednesday they want to move quickly on legislation to support pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong despite a threat of retaliation from China."Hong Kong is a high priority for me," said GOP Senator Jim Risch, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. "We're going to move on it as rapidly as we can."Senator Roy Blunt, a member of the Senate GOP leadership, said there haven't been any discussions about the timing for a vote on Hong Kong legislation similar to a measure that passed the House Tuesday. That bill would subject the city's special U.S. trading status to annual reviews and provides for sanctions against officials deemed responsible for undermining its "fundamental freedoms and autonomy."Following the House vote, China's foreign ministry issued a warning of unspecified "strong countermeasures" if the U.S. enacts that legislation and a package of other measures backing a pro-democracy movement that has rocked the former British colony for more than four months.There is broad backing in both parties in Congress to show support for the protesters and punish China for any crackdown. The White House declined to comment on whether President Donald Trump would sign the Hong Kong legislation, but there are enough votes in the House to override a veto and no significant opposition in the Senate.QuickTake: How the U.S. Congress Is Riling China on Hong KongThe next step will be up to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who'll set the schedule for a vote, and he's being pressed by his Republican colleagues."I think we're going to get it up on the floor here fairly soon," Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a China critic, told reporters.South Dakota Senator John Thune, another member of Republican leadership, said that while he hasn't looked closely at the four bills the House passed Tuesday, there are a number of senators "interested in making a strong statement on Hong Kong."Maryland Senator Ben Cardin, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said the main House bill, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, has deep bipartisan support, but there might be some Republicans who object to the bill being passed by unanimous consent without a floor vote.Cardin said the fact that the House passed their four bills separately, rather than bundling them together, means the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act has a better chance of getting a vote in the Senate.Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng Shuang warned American lawmakers to stop meddling in China's internal affairs "before falling off the edge of the cliff," without specifying how it would retaliate. The House action "fully exposes the shocking hypocrisy of some in the U.S. on human rights and democracy and their malicious intention to undermine Hong Kong's prosperity and stability to contain China's development," Geng said.Both Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have so far prevented the international uproar over Hong Kong from scuttling their trade talks. The two sides went ahead with negotiations and reached some broad agreements last week, even though the House vote was widely expected at the time."I don't think this will undermine the prospect of signing a partial deal next month," said Wang Huiyao, an adviser to China's cabinet and founder of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing. "The Hong Kong bill is not a done deal and there is still room for redemption."A spokesman for the Hong Kong government "expressed regret" over the House action, which came hours before Chief Executive Carrie Lam addressed a raucous session of the Legislative Council. She barely managed a few words before pro-democracy lawmakers forced her to stop talking. She ended up delivering her annual policy address via video instead.While the pro-democracy bloc only comprises about a third of lawmakers, Wednesday's display showed they have the ability to shut down debate on major economic initiatives. That spells even more trouble ahead for an economy sliding into recession as protests against Beijing's grip over the city grow increasingly violent.China's retaliation threat against the U.S. roiled markets during Asian trading, at one point wiping out a 0.8% rally in the regional equity benchmark.U.S. lawmakers have embraced the Hong Kong protesters' cause as the yearlong trade war fuels American support for pushing back against China, and they have hosted some of the city's activists on Capitol Hill in recent weeks. The National Basketball Association's struggle to manage Chinese backlash against a Houston Rockets executive's support for the movement has only focused wider attention on the debate.On Tuesday, the House passed H.Res. 543, a resolution reaffirming the relationship between the U.S. and Hong Kong, condemning Chinese interference in the region and voicing support for protesters. Lawmakers also passed the Protect Hong Kong Act, H.R. 4270, which would halt the export to Hong Kong of crowd-control devices such as tear gas and rubber bullets.Representative Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican and a sponsor of the main Hong Kong bill, dismissed the threats from Beijing."Retaliation, that's all they ever talk," Smith told Bloomberg TV. "They try to browbeat and cower people, countries, presidents, prime ministers and the like all over in order to get them to back off. We believe that human rights are so elemental, and so in need of protection. And that's why the students and the young people are out in the streets in Hong Kong virtually every day."The House also adopted a resolution by Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel of New York and the panel's top Republican, Michael McCaul of Texas, urging Canada to start U.S. extradition proceedings against Huawei Technologies Co. executive Meng Wanzhou. The resolution, H.Res. 521, also calls for the release of two Canadians detained in China and due process for a third sentenced to death for drug smuggling.David Zweig, an emeritus professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and director of Transnational China Consulting Ltd., noted that the U.S. legislation stopped short of altering the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, which provides the city's special trading status. So both the bill and any Chinese retaliation would have limited impact."China needs to posture with a retaliation of some kind," Zweig said. "But this is really a secondary issue as long as they keep the Hong Kong Policy Act intact. The House could have gone much further with the Hong Kong Policy Act. And they didn't."(Updates with additional lawmaker comment beginning in the third paragraph.)\--With assistance from Li Liu, Sofia Horta e Costa, Christopher Anstey, Shelly Banjo, Eric Lam, Dandan Li and Erik Wasson.To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Flatley in Washington at dflatley1@bloomberg.net;Iain Marlow in Hong Kong at imarlow1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Anna EdgertonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Good chance of a Brexit deal but not done yet -UK culture minister Posted: 16 Oct 2019 02:55 PM PDT ![Good chance of a Brexit deal but not done yet -UK culture minister]( "Good chance of a Brexit deal but not done yet -UK culture minister") There is a good chance that Britain and the European Union can strike a Brexit deal but it has not been done yet, British culture minister Nicky Morgan said on Wednesday. "I think there is a good chance of there being a deal," Morgan said in an interview on ITV's Peston show. "Nothing (has been) agreed or announced yet, and of course there is a chance that actually a deal is not agreed.
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| Still work to do on China trade deal, Mnuchin says Posted: 16 Oct 2019 02:33 PM PDT ![Still work to do on China trade deal, Mnuchin says]( "Still work to do on China trade deal, Mnuchin says") U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators still have work to do on a "phase one" trade agreement ahead of a targeted signing by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday. Mnuchin told reporters there had been no invitation from China for U.S. officials to travel to Beijing for more talks about the agreement, but he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were prepared to travel if necessary.
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| Brexiteers May Tolerate Boris Johnson’s Deal Posted: 16 Oct 2019 01:21 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.European leaders are getting ready to gather in Brussels to clinch a deal that will see the U.K. part ways with the European Union. There are signs an agreement can be reached after progress on the stubborn sticking point of the customs border with Ireland. But issues remain, specifically relating to the levying of sales tax.Democratic Unionist Party Leader Arlene Foster dismissed as "nonsense" a report that her party was close to dropping its opposition to Boris Johnson's latest proposals. The prime minister will need the DUP's support if he is to get a deal through Parliament.Must read: Will U.K. Parliament Back a Boris Johnson Brexit? We Do the MathKey DevelopmentsEU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier briefed EU27 diplomats in Brussels that agreement has yet to be reachedJohnson needs a deal approved this Saturday or he will be told to seek an extension; that will likely prompt a legal battle with the risk of a no-deal exitSales Tax Is Final Sticking Point in Talks (10:03 p.m.)Negotiators have agreed on all the outstanding issues except how to handle sales tax, according to one EU diplomat, and that will require Johnson's approval.Another obstacle though is that there is still no legal text. Several ambassadors are worried that it might not be ready for the summit that begins Thursday and it will be difficult for EU leaders to sign off if their advisers haven't had time to vet it.Negotiators Seek to Reach Deal Before Summit (8:05 p.m.) EU negotiators haven't thrown in the towel on getting the deal done before the summit, according to an EU diplomat. Talks are ongoing with the goal of reaching an agreement, presenting the legal text to the working group of EU27 Brexit diplomats, then to ambassadors, and wrapping up everything in time for the meeting of EU leaders, the diplomat said.'We Are Working,' Barnier Says (7:50 p.m.)EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier briefed the bloc's ambassadors in Brussels for 75 minutes on the state of the talks.He told diplomats the outstanding technical issue is how to collect Value Added Tax in Northern Ireland if the U.K. decides to have a different rate from the EU after Brexit, an official said. The EU is surprised that this has suddenly become the biggest sticking point, according to the official said."We are working," Barnier told reporters as he left the meeting. Talks are continuing.Legal Activist Threatens Another Challenge (7:30 p.m.)Jolyon Maughan, the lawyer who took on the government over suspending Parliament and won, is threatening to throw another legal spanner in the works.He says he plans to seek an injunction against the government to stop it putting the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement before Parliament. He claims it breaks a law passed last year that makes it illegal to put Northern Ireland in a separate customs union.If successful, he says Johnson will have to request an extension under the Benn Act.Barnier: Issues Remain Open in Talks (7 p.m.)Michel Barnier briefed EU government envoys in Brussels that a deal has yet to be reached, as some issues remain open, two diplomats familiar with the meeting said.The EU's Brexit negotiator insisted he is optimistic a deal is still possible, one of the officials said. It's still unclear which exactly are the open issues and which are the next steps. Talks will continue tonight, they said.Two U.K. officials also played down the chances of an agreement tonight, saying it is unlikely.Macron 'Wants to Believe' Deal Being Finalized (5:45 p.m.)Two of the big players in the Brexit saga were meeting in Toulouse, France: France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Angela Merkel. Their backing is critical to any deal and they are headed to the summit tomorrow.Their words were being mined for meaning and immediately were open to interpretation. Macron said he "wants to believe" in a Brexit deal for tonight, a positive push as talks are in their final hours. Some took his words to mean a deal is being finalized."We have also prepared the EU council that will be held tomorrow and Friday, on topics such as budget, enlargement and of course Brexit, on which I want to believe that a deal is being finalized and that we will be able to see tomorrow," he said during a joint press conference with Merkel.Merkel, for her part, remarked that "the news we're hearing from Brussels could be worse" and "now we're in the final meters." She said she'll keep her fingers crossed.The fact that neither leader was openly pessimistic is a sign things could be moving towards an agreement.Brexiteers May Tolerate Johnson Deal (4:45 p.m.)Boris Johnson briefed his cabinet and backbenchers from his Conservative Party on the progress of negotiations in Brussels in two short meetings, telling them work still needs to be done.Steve Baker, chairman of the ERG group of hardline Brexiteer Tory MPs, said "the deal sounds like it could well be tolerable" after Johnson spoke to rank-and-file lawmakers in an eight minute private meeting. "It's not our job to be more unionist than the DUP. But we're not going to delegate our decision," he said in reference to the group's concerns about customs arrangements for Northern Ireland.Johnson said "the summit is still shrouded in mist," according to Baker's account after he left the meeting. "Until there's a legal text we're not going to make a decision," Baker added.Johnson had earlier told cabinet that there is a chance of a good deal but it's not there yet, his spokesman James Slack told reporters.Legal Text Needed Tonight, EU Diplomat Says (4:30 p.m.)An EU diplomat told reporters in Brussels that if there's no agreed legal text tonight, there's no chance that a deal will be struck at the leaders' summit on Thursday.What will happen in that case, whether it's a new summit, will depend on the outcome of talks in the meantime, the diplomat said.All this is now a negotiation between London and Belfast, the diplomat said, adding that it's a situation he finds "very boring."DUP Criticizes Varadkar's Consent Comments (4:05 p.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's comments on restoring the devolved assembly in Northern Ireland were an "unhelpful intervention" a DUP lawmaker said, in the latest sign of strained relations between the party and the Dublin government.Reviving the assembly in Stormont is "entirely a matter for the parties in Northern Ireland and the U.K. Government," said Paul Givan, a DUP lawmaker in the currently inactive assembly. "The Irish Government has no role in this area."Earlier Varadkar said the assembly's consent mechanism should be re-examined as part of efforts to revive the body (see 1:05 p.m.).Barnier's Debrief Postponed Again (3:45 p.m.)In a sign that Brexit talks are going to the wire and that there's still no conclusion, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has again delayed his debrief to ambassadors from the bloc's 27 remaining governments.Initially scheduled for 2 p.m. Brussels time, it was pushed back to 5 p.m. and now to 7 p.m. The plan is for Barnier to give the final overview of whether there's a deal or not to take into Thursday's summit.But there's still too much uncertainty to give a conclusive assessment, officials said. The two negotiating teams remain locked away in the European Commission and are in contact with the most important EU capitals, particularly Dublin and London, where Boris Johnson's cabinet has just been briefed on the latest.Pound Whipsawed (2:05 p.m.)The currency market hasn't been this twitchy over Brexit since the aftermath of the referendum that set off the process in 2016. For the pound, today is all about volatility: The currency has swung between gains and losses as traders track every headline out of Brussels, London and Belfast. On Wednesday, sterling touched a five-month high as an end to the Brexit saga appeared to be in sight -- before paring those gains.Johnson to Visit Brussels? (2 p.m)The prime minister may travel to Brussels this evening if a deal is reached this afternoon, according to EU officials.Irish PM to Brief Party Leaders Today (1:45 p.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar will brief opposition party leaders later today on the state of the Brexit negotiations. That's usually a sign of progress -- though he went on to tell lawmakers that a legal text had yet to be "stabilized." In recent years, that sort of language has preceded the various accords that have been reached.DUP Accepts Latest Proposals on Consent: RTE (1:22 p.m.)Consent Needs to be Revisited, Irish PM Says (1:05 p.m.)In comments unlikely to calm the DUP, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the suspended Northern Ireland Assembly's controversial consent mechanism should be re-examined as part of efforts to revive the body.Under current rules, a third of assembly members can effectively block a measure they don't like, using the so-called petition of concern, which could theoretically allow the DUP to veto any measures designed to install a border in the Irish Sea as part of a Brexit deal.Sammy Wilson, the DUP's Brexit spokesman today fired a warning over the issue, saying U.K. & EU negotiators "have no business interfering in the processes for consent as currently set out."Speaking to lawmakers in Dublin, Varadkar said the device had been "used in a way that I don't think was ever anticipated," though any reform needs the assent of the region's biggest parties.DUP's Wilson Warns Over Consent (12:15 p.m.)DUP Brexit Spokesman Sammy Wilson says the Good Friday Agreement "requires cross community consent for all controversial issues" passing through Northern Ireland's power-sharing Assembly.U.K. Wants N Ireland in Customs Territory (12 p.m.)Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay reiterated Johnson's commitment to keeping Northern Ireland in the U.K. customs territory, but refused to be drawn on whether discussions in Brussels include customs checks between the province and the rest of the U.K."It is essential that Northern Ireland is part of United Kingdom customs territory," he said in a question and answer session with a panel of MPs. "Once we start to get into the details, that is an issue that is part of the negotiations." He said "sensitivities" over negotiations with the EU meant he couldn't talk further about the government's plans.Barclay dodged a series of questions from the DUP's Sammy Wilson, in which he was asked if the government would ensure "cross-community" consent for any agreement on the Irish border. That would effectively give a veto for the DUP, which Wilson told him would be in line with the agreement that ended violence in the province."We have a clear commitment to find solutions compatible with the Belfast Good Friday Agreement," Barclay said.Second Summit Is Now Being Talked About (11:43 a.m.)One EU diplomat said that the deal seems to be falling apart, and that an extra summit close to the weekend is probably going to be needed. It's not a scenario the U.K. side are willing to contemplate right now.Nevertheless, in Brussels it's becoming a definite possibility because EU sees Johnson as legally bound to seek an extension. If he does, then an emergency summit become unavoidable from their point of view.One possibility is Oct. 28, a Monday, three days before the U.K. is scheduled to leave.Was EU Sounding Too Optimistic Last Night? (11:35 a.m.)A U.K. official said the tone coming out of the EU on the state of talks was too optimistic last night. By tonight, there will be a clearer picture of whether both sides have got a deal.There are bigger stumbling blocks than just the sales tax, specifically the future customs relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (and thus the EU), and how to handle Johnson's plans to give the Northern Ireland Assembly a veto of over future regulatory alignment with the EU.Barclay on Extension Letter (11:20 a.m.)Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay, who is still answering questions from MPs in Parliament, says he's "not aware" of any plan for the U.K. to send a second letter to the EU in the event of no deal being reached.That's after suggestions Johnson could send one letter to the EU on Saturday requesting an extension to comply with the Benn Act, followed by another to cancel the first.On Oct. 4 Johnson's lawyers promised a Scottish Court that he will obey the law and request an extension from the EU, while also arguing that there's nothing to stop the prime minister continuing to say he intends to leave on Oct. 31Emergency Summit Looming? (11:15 a.m.)It's now too late for the Brexit deal to be formally approved by leaders at their summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, an EU diplomat said. Leaders will want to wait for the House of Commons to vote on Saturday for any deal before they give a final yes, the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. That could mean an emergency summit before the end of the month.Level Playing Field: a Key Sticking Point (11.10 a.m.)One of the main sticking points, according to two officials with the deliberations is the so-called level-playing field -- the commitment of the British government that it won't undercut the EU in areas such as taxation, state subsidies and environmental standards.This is a thorny issue that falls mostly in Political Declaration on the future relations between the two sides, rather than the exit agreement itself. However, reaching a deal on one without the other is impossible, as the two documents are seen as a package.Barnier Optimistic, But Three Roadblocks Key (10:56 a.m.)Barnier told EU Commissioners that he is optimistic a deal can be sealed today, RTE's Europe editor Tony Connelly tweeted. But he says three problems remain:VAT: Sales tax has emerged as a last-minute roadblockConsent: The DUP is pushing for a tighter Stormont lockThe level-playing field provisionDUP return to Downing Street (10:54 a.m.)Barclay Rejects 'Technical Extension' Delay (10:40 a.m.)Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay was asked by MPs in Parliament if he would be happy for the U.K. to have a short, "technical" delay to the Oct. 31 exit day deadline to pass the legislation required for the country to leave the EU. "No," Barclay replied. "It is important that we leave on the 31st October:"Second EU Summit Possible, Varadkar Says (10:35 a.m.)Another EU summit before the end of October is a "possibility" if it is needed to nail down a Brexit deal, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said. He said there is still time to get an agreement.Varadkar spoke to Johnson this morning and has been "in contact" with the European Commission, he said. While talks are making progress, some issues remain unresolved on the questions of how customs checks on goods crossing the EU-U.K. border will work, and the kind of say over the new arrangements that Northern Ireland's politicians will be given.The Irish leader hopes a deal could be reached today, but "there is still more time" if not.U.K. Will Seek Extension if No Deal Struck (10:15 a.m.)U.K. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told a parliamentary committee that Johnson will write a letter to the EU on Saturday if no deal has been agreed by then, in line with a new law. So far, Johnson has refused to say whether he would send the letter, determined to secure a deal."I confirm the government will abide by what is set out in that letter," Barclay told MPs.EU: Brexit Deal Impossible Unless U.K. Moves (10:01 a.m.)Brexit negotiations in Brussels have reached an impasse, with two EU officials saying that a deal is going to be impossible unless the U.K. government changes its position in the negotiations.The remaining issues cannot be resolved in the negotiating room unless Johnson's government gives a new order to his team in Brussels to shift their red lines, one of the diplomats said.The EU believes Johnson is trying but struggling to get the DUP -- his Northern Irish allies -- to support the draft deal which has been under discussion in the talks in Brussels, the person said.DUP's Wilson Warns Money Won't Help (9:35 a.m.)Sammy Wilson, an MP for the Democratic Unionist Party, denied reports that DUP leader Arlene Foster discussed a cash payment for Northern Ireland with Johnson yesterday to help secure her support for the Brexit deal."This is an issue of whether or not the union is weakened. If the union is weakened no amount of money will get us to accept the deal," Wilson said in an interview.The party has previously said it would support a deal that didn't put a border in the Irish Sea, treated Northern Ireland the same as rest of the U.K. in terms of customs arrangements, gave a veto to the Northern Irish assembly and avoided checks at the border.Conservatives Will Take Lead from DUP: Davis (9 a.m.)Former Brexit Secretary David Davis, a committed Brexit-backer, said that securing the support of the Democratic Unionist Party will be key to getting Conservative MPs to vote for any deal Johnson secures from Brussels."Quite a lot of Tory MPs will take their line from the DUP," Davis told BBC radio Wednesday. That's despite the suggestion on Twitter of Tory MP Steve Baker late Tuesday that his group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs are "optimistic" they'll be able to vote for a deal following a meeting with Johnson's team.DUP Is Resisting a Deal, U.K. Official Says (8:30 a.m.)The Democratic Unionist Party is resisting the proposed divorce agreement and the U.K. side now thinks the chances of getting an agreement are low, according to a British official who spoke on condition of anonymity.If Johnson can get a legal text approved in Brussels, he will then need to persuade Britain's Parliament to vote for it, and for that he wants the DUP on side.But the DUP is a "unionist" party, which means its members prize maintaining the economic and political unity of Northern Ireland with the rest of the U.K. above all else. And there are suggestions the deal Johnson is putting together will effectively split Northern Ireland from mainland Britain, with a new customs "border" for checking goods traveling between the two. That would be difficult for the DUP to swallow.Both the U.K. and the EU want to avoid the need for customs checks on goods crossing the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. In the past the DUP and the U.K. government have refused to contemplate a solution that involves a customs border between Northern Ireland and the British mainland.Lib Dems Demand Referendum on Any Deal (Earlier)Leader of the Liberal Democrats Jo Swinson said her party is pushing for a second referendum whatever deal Johnson brings back from Brussels. "We will back a referendum -- whether it's on Boris Johnson's deal, whether it's on Theresa May's deal -- because we think it's the public that should be in charge," Swinson told BBC radio on Wednesday.Her party has put down an amendment to government legislation for Tuesday calling for a referendum, although other attempts to force a second vote could come as soon as Saturday.Earlier:Brexit Talks Make Progress But Leave Johnson's Key Allies UneasyCan Johnson Get a Deal Through Parliament? Silence Is Golden\--With assistance from Kitty Donaldson, Jessica Shankleman, Thomas Penny, Tim Ross, Peter Flanagan, Maria Tadeo, Dara Doyle, Patrick Donahue, Helene Fouquet, Robert Hutton and Viktoria Dendrinou.To contact the reporters on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.net;Nikos Chrysoloras in Brussels at nchrysoloras@bloomberg.net;Alexander Weber in Brussels at aweber45@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Ben SillsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Mystery as plane carrying Russian arms smugglers crashes in Congo Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:43 PM PDT  The Democratic Republic of Congo has one of the world's worst aviation safety records, so reports that an aircraft had tumbled into a remote forest last week caused few international ripples. Since then, however, a deepening mystery over the nature of the cargo and the identity of those on board has left the Congolese government facing awkward questions. The fate of the stricken plane, a mysterious Antonov-72 so far only identified by its former registration number, EK-72903, may also provide a glimpse into the murkier side of Russia's attempts to reassert its influence in Africa. The details remain scant. Last Thursday, the plane crashed 59 minutes after taking off from the eastern city of Goma bound for the capital Kinshasa. None of the eight people on board survived, officials said. The passengers were identified as the personal chauffeur of Felix Tshisekedi, Congo's president, and three of his bodyguards. An armoured vehicle used by the president was also on board. A more troubling disclosure followed when two of the four-strong crew were identified. Vitaly Shumkov and Vladimir Sadovnichy, the plane's pilots, were not only Russian nationals, they both appeared to have a background in gun running. The plane, too, has a murky past. EK-72903 was once owned by an Armenian company whose proprietor has been linked to arms smuggling elsewhere in Africa. Whether the crew were somehow furthering Kremlin interests remains unknown. However, there is no secret that Russia hopes to regain the influence the Soviet Union once wielded in Africa by wooing its leaders with arms sales, private security and "political technologists" adept at winning elections. Such attempts have often been linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close associate of Vladimir Putin who has been accused of masterminding attempts to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election. Mr Prigozhin allegedly had Congo in his sights after Russia announced in May that it was sending a team of army specialists to the country. Some Russia media outlets speculated that Mr Prigozhin, was on board the plane ahead of a meeting with President Tshisekedi. That is almost certainly untrue. Slumming it on an Antonov is generally not Mr Progozhin's style. "He wouldn't get into a plane like that," a Congolese government official said. "This gentleman is an oligarch and if he travels then he travels on his own plane." The official said that while Mr Prigozhin had not been scheduled to meet President Tshisekedi, other Russian government representatives had requested a meeting to discuss the upcoming summit. It is unclear if any were on board. At least two people described as being "of eastern European origin" were also on the plane. They have not yet been identified, adding to the intrigue surrounding the flight. For the moment, whoever else was on board the plane remains unknown. With some sources saying there may have been 11 people rather than eight on board, UN officials were attempting to identify the remains of the dead — some of whom had been hastily buried — last night. Even that might not put an end to the intrigue of what happened aboard EK-72903. Congo rarely gives up its mysteries. In 1961, a plane departing the country with then UN secretary general Dag Hammarskjöld on board crashed. Three inquiries failed to determined the cause of the crash and Hammarskjöld's death remains a mystery to this day.
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| China Is Leasing an Entire Pacific Island. Its Residents Are Shocked. Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:39 PM PDT  SYDNEY -- The island of Tulagi served as a South Pacific headquarters for Britain then Japan, and during World War II, its natural deepwater harbor made it a military gem. Now, China is moving in with plans to effectively take control. Under a secretive deal signed last month with a provincial government in the Solomon Islands, a Beijing-based company with close ties to the Chinese Communist Party has secured exclusive development rights for the entire island of Tulagi and its surroundings. The lease agreement has shocked Tulagi residents and alarmed U.S. officials who see the island chains of the South Pacific as crucial to keeping China in check and protecting important sea routes. It is the latest example of China using promises of prosperity to pursue its global aspirations -- often by funneling money to governments and investing in local infrastructure projects that critics call debt traps for developing nations. "The geography tells you that this is a good location," said Anne-Marie Brady, a China scholar at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand. "China is expanding its military assets into the South Pacific and is looking for friendly ports and friendly airfields just like other rising powers before them." Beijing's ambitions in the South Pacific have economic, political and military ramifications. The region is rich in natural resources, and China's investments have provoked worries in the United States and Australia that the projects could give Beijing an opening to establish a military foothold for everything from ships and planes to its own version of the Global Positioning System. China is also pushing to end the region's status as a diplomatic stronghold for Taiwan. The Solomons cut ties to Taipei and allied with Beijing just a few days before the Tulagi deal. A second Pacific nation, Kiribati, followed suit the same week. Even compared to previous Chinese development deals in nearby countries -- including a wharf in Vanuatu, whose terms were not publicly released for years -- the Tulagi agreement is remarkable for both its scope and lack of public input. The renewable 75-year lease was granted to the China Sam Enterprise Group, a conglomerate founded in 1985 as a state-owned enterprise, according to corporate records. A copy of the "strategic cooperation agreement," obtained by The New York Times and verified by two people with knowledge of the deal, reveals both the immediate ambitions of China Sam and the potential -- just as in Vanuatu -- for infrastructure that could share civilian and military uses. Signed on Sept. 22, the agreement includes provisions for a fishery base, an operations center, and "the building or enhancement of the airport." Though there are no confirmed oil or gas reserves in the Solomons, the agreement also notes that China Sam is interested in building an oil and gas terminal. These are just the explicit possibilities. The document also states that the government will lease all of Tulagi and the surrounding islands in the province for the development of "a special economic zone or any other industry that is suitable for any development." The provincial governor who signed the deal, Stanley Maniteva, could not be reached for comment. Noting that laws and landowner rights would be respected, he told local reporters this week that the agreement had not been completed. "I want to make clear that the agreement does not bear the official stamp of the province so it is not official and formalized yet," he said. But many residents of Tulagi, an island of a little over 1,000 people, are taking the signing of the document to mean it is a real agreement, and outrage has quickly set in. "They cannot come in and lease the whole island like that," said Michael Salini, 46, a business owner on Tulagi who is helping organize a petition to oppose the China Sam agreement. "Everyone is really scared about the possibility of China turning the island into a military base," he added. "That is what really scares people -- because why else do they want to lease the whole island?" A military installation would carry strategic and symbolic significance. Some U.S. officials believe China's efforts in the region echo the period before and during World War II, when Japan wrested control of island assets, which were won back in turn by American and Australian troops in bloody battles. But it is also a matter of feasibility: China goes where there is value and interest. With the United States pulling back in much of the world under President Donald Trump's America First policy, Beijing is often knocking on doors left open. Some U.S. and Solomon Islands officials note that Chinese businesses and officials have cultivated local politicians for years with bribes and gifts like luxury trips to China and Singapore. In a poor country of 600,000 people with a national Parliament of 50 members, it does not take much to tilt debate, they argue. "What worries me much more about the new Chinese engagement, be it political or economic, in the Pacific is the way in which this engagement is taking place, being lubricated by elite capture and corruption," said Jonathan Pryke, a Pacific islands expert with the Lowy Institute in Sydney. Though patronage and corruption have long been a challenge, he added, "this engagement has certainly taken it to a whole new level."The prime minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, visited China this month. Photographs from the trip showed him smiling with China Sam executives. The visit carried a whiff of victory for Beijing. It followed a failed lobbying effort by Australia and the United States to keep the Solomons loyal to Taiwan and the alignment that began when U.S. Marines dislodged Japanese troops from Tulagi and Guadalcanal in 1942. Australia's prime minister, Scott Morrison, visited the Solomons in June -- the first official visit by an Australian leader in a decade. He announced an infrastructure program worth up to 250 million Australian dollars, or about $168 million, in grant financing over 10 years. Vice President Mike Pence also pressed Sogavare to hold off on deciding about Taiwan, promising infrastructure investments and making plans for an in-person discussion in September around the time of the U.N. General Assembly. But Sogavare then announced the severing of ties with Taiwan, and Pence canceled the meeting. Still, some argue that the United States could revive support. "It's not too late in the game," said Phillip Tagini, a mining executive who served in the Solomons as a prime minister's adviser from 2012 to 2015. "At this stage we don't have the history with China to say we can trust them." After an election in 2006, rioting and violence broke out amid allegations that money from Chinese businessmen had rigged the results. Protests also greeted Sogavare's election win in April, with demonstrators marching toward the capital's Chinatown to register discontent. "Separate from China's agenda is the risk of destabilizing a vulnerable society," Brady said. But the tangible effects of the deals being struck now, some say, could win over even the skeptics. "The fact is, people in the Solomons are going to see infrastructure from China, and when they see these things happening they are going to say, 'Wow, this is what we were waiting for,'" Tagini said. "If the Americans are going to come, they need to choose where their impacts are going to be seen. They need to be seen." This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| Giuliani Pushed Trump to Deport Cleric Sought by Turkey, Ex-White House Officials Said Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:29 PM PDT  Rudy Giuliani, the president's personal lawyer, repeatedly urged President Donald Trump to arrange for the deportation of a Turkish cleric, Fethullah Gulen, calling him a violent extremist who needed to face justice in Turkey, former White House officials said Tuesday. Turkey has requested that the United States hand over Gulen, a permanent U.S. resident living in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania, to be tried on charges that he instigated a failed coup in Turkey in 2016. The disclosure came as Giuliani escalated his battle with Democratic lawmakers Tuesday by defying a congressional subpoena for documents about a rogue campaign that pressured Ukraine's president to dig up dirt on Trump's political rivals. The characterization of Gulen as a dangerous extremist echoed language that Michael Flynn, the former national security adviser, used to describe the cleric when he was serving as a secret lobbyist for the Turkish government while also advising Trump's campaign in 2016. Giuliani was at times so insistent that a number of White House officials came to believe he was secretly lobbying for Turkey, one of the former officials said. Officials said they even checked lobbying records to see if Giuliani was registered on behalf of Turkey. He was not. Giuliani's push to have Gulen deported was first reported by The Washington Post. In a phone interview Tuesday night, Giuliani denied ever trying to intervene in the Gulen case and accused people of intentionally making things up to damage his credibility. "That would be totally crazy. I couldn't have gotten Gulen extradited. Why would I have gotten involved?" Giuliani said. "It's definitely untrue. I had nothing to do with Gulen." He said his only interest in sending someone to Turkey was a prisoner exchange involving his client at the time, Reza Zarrab, a Turkish-Iranian businessman who was accused in a more than $10 billion scheme to thwart sanctions on Iran. Gulen has denied accusations that he plotted to overthrow Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in 2016. The idea that Trump should order Gulen deported was fiercely opposed inside the White House, where officials saw the issue as a matter to be handled by the Justice Department, not a political decision. Ultimately, that was what happened. The Justice Department, which was led at the time by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, did not see merit in deporting Gulen, said one former official familiar with the matter. Throughout 2017, before Giuliani began representing Trump as his personal lawyer, he appeared at the White House to discuss a number of issues related to Turkey, according to two former administration officials. At one point, officials tried to divert Giuliani's access to the president so that he was raising his issues with the president's senior advisers instead of Trump directly. Also on Tuesday, Giuliani's lawyer, Jon Sale, said in a letter to the House Intelligence Committee that he would not hand over documents to the Democrat-led impeachment inquiry because the information requested was "beyond the scope of legitimate inquiry" and a violation of attorney-client and executive privilege. In a confrontational tweet that echoed the president's condemnation of the investigations, Giuliani said he "will not participate in an illegitimate, unconstitutional, and baseless 'impeachment inquiry.'" Giuliani appeared to reject the idea that his decision to defy the subpoena would place him in any legal jeopardy. He said in his tweet that Sale would no longer be representing him on impeachment matters. "At this time, I do not need a lawyer," Giuliani wrote. A spokeswoman for the committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Giuliani's letter. Giuliani has emerged as the central character in the monthslong effort by Trump and officials in his government to get Ukraine's president to begin an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden, a leading Democratic candidate for president, and his son Hunter Biden. Giuliani is said to be under investigation by federal prosecutors in Manhattan who are trying to determine if he broke lobbying laws in his dealings in Ukraine. The investigators are examining his efforts to undermine the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine then, Marie Yovanovitch, who was recalled in the spring as part of Trump's broader campaign to pressure Ukraine. Questions about Giuliani's role in orchestrating the pressure campaign have increased after the arrests last week of two of his close associates who aided him in the effort to pressure Ukraine. The men, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, are accused of a complex scheme to violate campaign finance laws.Giuliani's refusal to cooperate with the Democratic impeachment inquiry stands in contrast to four current and former administration officials who have either complied with subpoenas or have voluntarily appeared to provide hours of testimony about the effort to pressure the Ukrainian government. Yovanovitch, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is still an employee of the State Department, testified behind closed doors last week. Fiona Hill, Trump's former senior adviser on Russia and Europe, appeared Monday under subpoena. George Kent, a senior State Department official in charge of Ukraine policy, testified Tuesday. In the subpoena for Giuliani's documents, which Democrats issued two weeks ago, lawmakers asked for texts, emails and other documents dating to January 2017, including any information related to his efforts to persuade Ukraine to open investigations that could benefit Trump politically. Lawmakers also requested documents from Giuliani that could reveal more about why $391 million in security aid for Ukraine was held up. Democrats have suggested that the president or his aides used the aid as leverage in the effort to get Ukraine to investigate Biden and open other inquiries. Giuliani's decision not to produce the documents could leave him open to charges of contempt. Democrats could use it to further build an impeachment case against Trump, particularly on an obstruction charge."Your failure or refusal to comply with the subpoena," the Democratic lawmakers wrote in the Sept. 30 subpoena of Giuliani, "including at the direction or behest of the president or the White House, shall constitute evidence of obstruction of the House's impeachment inquiry and may be used as an adverse inference against you and the president." In Giuliani's letter to the committee Tuesday, Sale said lawmakers should consider it the "formal notice" that Giuliani will not cooperate. This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| Buses collide in central Sudan, killing 21 Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:19 PM PDT ![Buses collide in central Sudan, killing 21]( "Buses collide in central Sudan, killing 21") Sudan's state-run news agency says a head-on collision between two buses has killed 21 people in a central province. Road accidents are common in Sudan, often the result of badly maintained roads and poor enforcement of traffic laws. The World Health Organization said road accidents killed more than 10,000 people in Sudan in 2018.
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| Winners and losers in the Democratic debate, from columnist Glenn Harlan Reynolds Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:18 PM PDT  Vladimir Putin was among the surprise losers of the latest Democratic debate. Liberals now admit Russia is a foe.
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| France, Germany break impasse on arms exports Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:11 PM PDT  France and Germany agreed Wednesday on an accord governing the export of jointly developed weapons and defence equipment, removing a key stumbling block to their development of next-generation tanks and fighter jets. "We have finalised a major, legally binding deal on arms exports to fully complete these programmes," French President Emmanuel Macron said at a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Both companies are working on the ambitious Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project, which will combine a new fighter plane with drones, satellites and other aircraft to help reduce the EU's long reliance on US planes and equipment.
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| Aid groups scramble to reach Syrians as battle lines shift Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:11 PM PDT  Humanitarian groups in northeastern Syria are scrambling to provide aid to hundreds of thousands of people as rapidly shifting battle lines make it increasingly difficult to reach them. Nearly all foreign aid workers have been evacuated because of security concerns, and there are fears that local staff could face reprisals, either at the hands of Turkish-led forces pushing in from the north or Syrian troops fanning out across territory held by the embattled Kurds. The front lines are being rapidly redrawn as more than 160,000 people flee the fighting, including many who were displaced by earlier battles in Syria's eight-year civil war.
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| In Iraq, concern that Syria chaos would bring back IS Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:09 PM PDT  Iraq's defense minister on Wednesday expressed concerns that the Islamic State group could take advantage of Turkey's invasion of northern Syria to destabilize Iraq, saying that a number of militants have been able to escape detention in Syria amid the chaos and cross into Iraq. "The Iraqi government should act quickly to close illegal crossings between Iraq and Syria," al-Shammari said.
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| UPDATE 1-Lawyer to bring legal case against UK PM Johnson's Brexit deal Posted: 16 Oct 2019 12:03 PM PDT ![UPDATE 1-Lawyer to bring legal case against UK PM Johnson's Brexit deal]( "UPDATE 1-Lawyer to bring legal case against UK PM Johnson's Brexit deal") A legal challenge will be brought against British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's possible Brexit deal on the grounds that it contravenes domestic tax law, lawyer Jolyon Maugham said on Wednesday. Maugham, who has been involved in successful, high profile cases that challenge the government over plans to exit the European Union, said he intended to lodge a petition to stop the government putting the Withdrawal Agreement before parliament. Britain and the EU appeared on the verge of a last-minute Brexit deal on Wednesday but Prime Minister Boris Johnson still had work to do at home to ensure his government and fractious parliament approve the plan.
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| How the U.S. Military Will Carry Out a Hasty, Risky Withdrawal From Syria Posted: 16 Oct 2019 11:50 AM PDT  President Donald Trump's decision -- made in the span of a week -- to withdraw about 1,000 American troops from northern Syria caught the Pentagon, and the forces on the ground, off guard.To carry out the "endless wars" since Sept. 11, 2001, which Trump has vowed to wrap up, the American military has perfected the ability to build complex logistics pipelines that can funnel everything from armored vehicles to satellite internet access to gym equipment directly to combat outposts throughout the Middle East.Now, American troops are making a hasty withdrawal from Syria -- under pressure from encroaching Turkish proxy forces, Russian aircraft and columns armored by the Syrian government. This means the Pentagon will have to disassemble combat bases and other infrastructure that were built to stay for a mission that was supposed to last, all while protecting the troops as they withdraw amid a chaotic battlefield.Where did U.S. troops operate before the Turkish offensive?Before the Turkish offensive, American troops, mostly Special Operations forces, operated in an archipelago of about a dozen bases and outposts across northeastern Syria, mostly living alongside their Syrian Kurdish partners. They were divided into two main headquarters, known by their cardinal directions, East and West.The outposts are often a mixture of blast-resistant walls known as Hesco barriers, rudimentary structures and all-weather tents. The large air base in the city of Kobani is replete with a small tent city and some container housing units.The western headquarters, known as Advanced Operational Base West, oversaw roughly half a dozen smaller outposts that covered cities like Manbij and Raqqa. Roughly 500 troops are dedicated to the area overseen by AOB West.The eastern headquarters, known as AOB East, is closer to the Iraqi border and helps monitor some of the roughly 500 troops in that area around the Euphrates River Valley, with several smaller outposts around Deir el-Zour and some near the Iraq-Syria border in towns like Bukamal and Hajin. The number of forces in the east, however, is fluid, as units frequently move between Syria and Iraq.Where are those troops moving now?As the troops withdraw, they first will collapse inward by abandoning the outposts closest to the line of advancing foreign troops, in this case the Turkish military and its ill-disciplined Syrian militia proxies, along with Russian and Syrian regime forces. That strategy was made clear in a video posted online Tuesday, showing a Russian journalist standing in an abandoned American outpost west of Manbij and closest to Syrian government troops.Col. Myles Caggins, a spokesman for the American-led coalition based in Baghdad, confirmed in a Tuesday message on Twitter, "We are out of Manbij."The troops are likely to be repositioned to Iraq or potentially to Jordan. Some may return to the United States, officials said.What routes will the troops use in exiting Syria?The western and eastern headquarters are likely to withdraw independently of each other. In the west, American forces will, according to American military officials, most likely leave through the Kobani airfield, known as the Kobani Landing Zone. That base, with its long dirt runaway, can support C-17 transport aircraft and has a large Air Force contingent of maintenance staff. In the east, those forces will most likely exit overland and into Iraq in convoys, with some traveling via helicopter airlift.Are there risks in the withdrawal?The risk of confrontation with the medley of different ground forces -- both state-led and proxy -- is undoubtedly higher than it was several weeks ago.Convoys moving through contested territory and aircraft making repeated landings all might contribute to an accidental confrontation or a staged attack, especially from any Islamic State leftovers that might want to take advantage of the sudden withdrawal.One of the biggest risks to the remaining American troops as they pull back will most likely be attacks from Turkish-backed Syrian militia called the Free Syrian Army, which has spearheaded the Turkish offensive in many places along the border. Those troops are supported by Turkish army artillery and mortar fire, and Turkish air force strikes.American officials say these Turkish-backed militia are less disciplined than regular Turkish soldiers, and deliberately or inadvertently have fired on retreating American troops. Another emerging threat comes from Islamic State fighters, who had gone underground after the defeat of the final shards of the terror group's caliphate, or religious state, in northern Syria earlier this year.The hasty, risky nature of the withdrawal might actually require that the number of American troops in Syria be increased, at least temporarily. The military's Central Command is preparing to send hundreds of additional American forces to help secure bases where American Special Forces have been operating with their Syrian Kurdish partners -- many of whom have now left to fight the Turks -- and safely evacuate those Americans in the coming weeks."We are repositioning additional forces in the region to assist with force protection as necessary," Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon on Friday.In a sign of the concern over the safety of the remaining American troops in Syria, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke Monday with his Russian counterpart about the deteriorating security in the country's northeast.And last Friday, the American military logged an attempt to attack a Marine KC-130 transport aircraft landing in Kobani with "surface-to-air fire," according to military documents obtained by The New York Times. The aircraft discharged flares as a defensive measure. The flight was unharmed and continued its approach, landing at the airfield.Will any American troops stay in Syria?Yes, there are roughly 150 troops at al-Tanf, a small base in southern Syria near the Jordanian border. While billed as a Special Operations mission to train local forces and go after the Islamic State group, the base serves as a tollbooth of sorts for Iranian, Russian and Syrian forces in the region that have to navigate around its kilometers-wide defense bubble. The presence of American forces there gives the United States visibility on the movement and actions of those other military forces.On the Jordanian side of the border, the American military keeps a quick reaction force staged there, including extra troops and artillery, in case anything were to go awry at the al-Tanf base.The base also watches over a nearby refugee camp that is run by the United Nations.What U.S. combat equipment will be left behind?That is unclear. Some of the various bases' hard structures, tents, tables, gym equipment and larger construction machinery might be left behind. What won't be abandoned is anything sensitive, such as radios, weapons, armored vehicles and important documents.American military officials say the hastier the withdrawal, the more equipment will be left behind or have to be destroyed. Much depends on the security conditions on the ground.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| Donald Trump accused of undermining US efforts to broker ceasefire between Turkey and Kurds Posted: 16 Oct 2019 11:44 AM PDT  Donald Trump was accused of undermining his own diplomats when he appeared to endorse Turkey's offensive into Northern Syria and compared the Kurdish groups they claim to be fighting to Islamic State. Speaking as Mike Pence, the US vice president, and Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, flew into Ankara for emergency talks to persuade Recep Tayyip Erdogan to halt his offensive, Mr Trump said Kurdish forces US troops had recently fought alongside were "no angels" "The PKK, which is a part of the Kurds, as you know, is probably worse at terror and more of a terrorist threat in many ways than ISIS," he said at the White House. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state that has claimed thousands of lives. It is classified as a terrorist organization by most Nato states. Turkey says the YPG, the dominant Kurdish group in the Syrian Democratic Forces militia that fought alongside US troops to defeat Islamic State, is an extension of the PKK. It launched an offensive into Syria to crush the group after Mr Trump ordered US forces out of northern Syria last week. The comments were greeted with disbelief by senior US officials. Smoke plumes from fires set by Kurdish forces to reduce visibility for Turkish aircraft near the town of Tal Tamr Credit: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP Lindsey Graham, the republican senator for South Carolina and a Trump loyalist, described Mr Trump's comments as "a complete and utter national security disaster in the making." "The statements by President Trump about Turkey's invasion being of no concern to us also completely undercut Vice President Pence and Sec. Pompeo's ability to end the conflict," he wrote on Twitter. The remarks followed a day of reverses to US credibility in the Middle East that saw Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly defy US calls to halt his offensive and agree to fly to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin instead. In an address to Turkey's parliament later, he said: "There are some leaders who are trying to mediate... There has never been any such thing in the history of the Turkish republic as the state sitting at the same table with a terror organisation." Recep Tayyip Erdogan said only a Kurdish surrender would end Turkey's offensive in Syria Credit: Aytac Unal/ Anadolu "Our proposal is for the terrorists to lay down their arms, leave their equipment, destroy the traps they have created, and leave the safe zone we designated, as of tonight...If this is done, our Operation Peace Spring will end by itself." Heavy fighting between Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces continued in key border city of Ras al-Ain on Wednesday, and Kurdish officials said Turkey resumed shelling around the city of Derik. The Rojava Information Centre, an information agency run by international volunteers in Kurdish-held areas of Syria, said regime forces were supporting Kurdish fighters and that Turkish aircraft had ceased flying in the area since Russian and Syrian jets appeared overhead. Meanwhile authorities in neighbouring Iraqi Kurdistan said 800 refugees had fled across the border. The United Nations estimates over 160,000 people have been displaced since the Turkish offensive began on October 9. Mr Trump's withdrawal from Syria has upended the geo-political balance in the region, leaving Russia as the undisputed power-broker in Syria and poised to fill a power vacuum left by the US across the Middle East. The formerly US-allied Kurdish leadership announced they had agreed to align with Russia and the Syrian government in a bid to halt the Turkish attack on Sunday night. Turkish-backed Syrian fighters fire toward Ras al-Ain, a key border town at the centre of the fighting Credit: NAZEER AL-KHATIB/AFP via Getty Images Syrian government troops and Russian forces started patrols in areas abandoned by US forces on Tuesday evening. On Wednesday they entered Kobani, the strategic border town where Kurdish and US forces first defeated Islamic State in 2015. The Kremlin said Mr Erdogan accepted an invitation to Moscow in the coming days during a phone call with Mr Putin on Tuesday night. The two presidents discussed the need to "prevent conflict between units of the Turkish army and Syrian government armed forces," it said in a readout posted on its website. It said Mr Putin also warned Mr Erdogan was it would be "unacceptable" to allow Isil prisoners held by the Kurds to exploit the chaos unfolding on the ground. Mr Trump defended his decision on Wednesday, saying: "I view the situation on the Turkish border with Syria to be, for the United States, strategically brilliant." It has emerged that Mr Trump had sent President Erdogan a stern letter, dated last Wednesday, warning him over the invasion of Syria. "History will look upon you favourably if you get this done the right and humane way," Mr Trump wrote in the letter. "It will look upon you forever as the devil if good things don't happen. Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool!" Meanwhile a Democratic congressional leadership meeting with Mr Trump to discuss Syrian policy broke down in acrimony on Wednesday. The Democrats left the meeting early, accusing Mr Trump of having a "meltdown" and having gone on a "nasty diatribe". Republicans criticised the Democrats for walking out of the talks.
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| Sudanese rebel group suspends peace talks after attack Posted: 16 Oct 2019 11:39 AM PDT ![Sudanese rebel group suspends peace talks after attack]( "Sudanese rebel group suspends peace talks after attack") A Sudanese rebel group said Wednesday it suspended peace talks with the transitional government, accusing the military of attacking and detaining people in a southern area under its control, an early blow to negotiations that had just begun with high expectations in South Sudan's capital, Juba. The Sudan Liberation Movement-North said it canceled Wednesday's scheduled round of direct talks after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces set up a checkpoint and detained 16 people in South Kordofan Province earlier this week. The Rapid Support Forces are led by Gen. Mohammed Hamadan Dagalo, a member of the Sudan's Sovereign Council, who also leads the government delegation to the Juba talks.
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| UPDATE 1-No final Brexit deal on Wednesday -BBC political editor Posted: 16 Oct 2019 11:10 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-No final Brexit deal on Wednesday -BBC political editor]( "UPDATE 1-No final Brexit deal on Wednesday -BBC political editor") There will not be a finalised Brexit deal on Wednesday, BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg reported, citing an unnamed UK government source. "Government source has just told me there will not be a deal tonight," she said in a tweet, with European Union sources saying that Britain and the EU were on the verge of a deal. The political editor of the Sun newspaper also said there would be no Brexit deal on Wednesday.
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| Is Trump Really Pulling Out of Syria? Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:53 AM PDT  The United States has thrown open the door for Turkey to fight the Kurds, but the counter-Russia and counter-Iran mission continues.
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| France demands Iran release two French nationals held since June Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:35 AM PDT  France demanded on Wednesday that Iran immediately release two of its nationals who have been held in prison since June, a situation that is likely to complicate Paris's efforts to defuse tensions between the United States and Tehran. France's foreign ministry confirmed that Roland Marchal, a senior researcher from Science-Po university, was being detained. French officials and his family had sought to keep the information secret due to the current disputes in the region, fearing it could harm potential negotiations. Mr Marchal's colleague, Franco-Iranian dual national Fariba Adelkhah, has been in prison in Iran since June. "We want the Iranian authorities to show transparency in this dossier and act without delay to end the unacceptable situation," foreign ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll said in a briefing. She added that Mr Marchal had received consular visits and had a lawyer. Iran has refused to offer the same for Mr Adelkhah, citing her Iranian nationality, and has called France's demands for her release an interference in its internal affairs. Mr Marchal, an Africa expert, had sought to spend the Eid religious holiday with his colleague in Iran, but was arrested at Tehran airport upon his arrival, their university association said in a statement. Iranian authorities said on Monday that a third person linked to France had been arrested, exiled Iranian journalist Ruhollah Zam. The announcement by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard did not make clear how Mr Zam, based in France, was arrested, saying only that he was first "guided into" Iran. The French Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that Mr Zam was a refugee with French residence papers, had left France on Oct. 11 and was arrested abroad. But authorities had no information on the circumstances of the arrest. Mr Zam helped fan the flames of nationwide protests about the economy in Iran at the end of 2017 and ran a website called AmadNews that posted embarrassing videos and information about Iranian officials.
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| Trump official vows Syria pullout won't impact Iran Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:19 AM PDT  A senior US administration official insisted Wednesday that President Donald Trump's pullout from Syria will not change his hard line on Iran, a key ally of President Bashar al-Assad. In a Senate hearing, Trump's Democratic rivals said he had strengthened adversaries by pulling US troops who had permitted de facto autonomy in northeastern Syria by Kurdish fighters, a force that led the battle to crush Islamic State extremists. Faced with a Turkish incursion, the Kurds asked Assad's regime to return to the northeast of the war-battered country for the first time in years, with Russia patroling in hopes of keeping the two sides apart.
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| Could Klobuchar or Buttigieg be the best hope for centrist Democrats? Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:19 AM PDT  Klobuchar and especially Buttigieg proved more adept than Biden at making a coherent case for Democratic moderationThe American presidential campaign marathon is a grueling and seemingly endless experience, for candidates and voters alike. Already it seems to have gone on for ever and yet we're still more than a year away from the election. But the value of this protracted ordeal is that it does make the candidates stronger and better campaigners. And by the time this fourth official Democratic debate had concluded, there was a glimmer of clarity as to how the race is likely to sort itself out.The big takeaway is that while many Americans still consider former vice president Joe Biden to be the frontrunner — and he's still leading in some polls — the candidates themselves now see Elizabeth Warren at the head of the pack. That was reflected in several of them launching salvoes against her for the first time, which in turn gave her the most opportunities to respond and thus more speaking time than any other candidate.Warren handled the attacks well for the most part. She looked evasive at the start of the debate when she refused to acknowledge that her Medicare for All plan would raise taxes for middle-class voters, saying only that their overall costs would go down. But for the rest of the time she projected a front-runner's loftiness, shrugging off the barbs of her rivals and focusing on making a case against Donald Trump and the capitalist status quo. She even reprised her 2011 speech about how wealthy people in America got rich in part because of government services paid for by the rest of society – an argument that then-president Barack Obama garbled the following year as, "You didn't build that." Warren didn't sparkle in this debate as she has in the past, but neither did she stumble in any important respects.Bernie Sanders also had a successful performance, in part simply because he appeared undiminished by his recent heart attack. As in previous debates, he offered up red-meat socialist rhetoric about the need for a revolution to unrig the capitalist system, and also called for breaking up large media and agribusiness companies as well as tech companies such as Amazon. But he came across as less abrasive than in some past debates and received warm applause for his thanks to all who reached out to him during his hospitalization.Biden had his best debate so far, largely because he was out of the line of fire and for the first time had a largely gaffe-free performance. He didn't offer a detailed defense of his son's business dealings in Ukraine, but did forcefully maintain that neither he nor his son had done anything wrong. More importantly, for the first time he actually managed to make an affirmative case for his candidacy. He touted his age and experience as critical components of wise presidential leadership, boasted that he had more substantive legislative accomplishments and persuasive ability than all the other candidates, vowed to restore middle-class prosperity, and dismissed Warren's and Sanders' plans as impractical and vague.The sharpest criticism of Warren-Sanders progressivism, however, came from Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg. Klobuchar, despite her Minnesota-nice affect, severely rebuked Warren's often-repeated claim that anyone who disagrees with her plans is gutless and/or retailing Republican talking points, and also went after Andrew Yang for seeming to characterize Putin's Russia and the US as morally equivalent. Buttigieg, too, hit Warren and Sanders for taking away Americans' freedom of choice in health insurance and also had a sharp exchange with Tulsi Gabbard, calling her "dead wrong" for wanting US troops to leave Syria.Klobuchar and especially Buttigieg proved more adept than Biden at making a coherent case for Democratic moderation — meaning not Hillary Clinton-style neoliberalism so much as a concern for pragmatism, social cohesion, US world leadership, and at least some measure of bipartisanship. If Biden continues to sink in the polls, they have a chance to rise to top-tier status.None of the other candidates appear to have had the kind of breakout performance they needed, and the launch of the House impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump (which all the candidates supported) doesn't seem to have changed the basic dynamic of the contest. So the rest of the campaign is likely to boil down to whether Biden, Buttigieg or Klobuchar will emerge as the top moderate candidate; whether Warren or Sanders will emerge as the progressive candidate; and who then ultimately will become the nominee. But it's likely to be a long time indeed before any of these questions are answered definitively.• Geoffrey Kabaservice is the director of political studies at the Niskanen Center in Washington, DC
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| Three US diplomats held near Russian test site where mystery blast killed five Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:18 AM PDT  * Russian foreign ministry says trio 'obviously got lost' * August explosion caused radiation levels to surgeA Russian navy official works on the Akula nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine at the Severodvinsk site in July. The August explosion there killed at least five people. Photograph: Sergei Bobylev/TassThree American diplomats were briefly detained in Russia near the military test site where a mysterious explosion released radiation in August, several Russia state news agencies have reported.The US embassy has confirmed the incident, the Interfax news service reported, but said the three diplomats had filed the proper paperwork to travel in the area.The Russian foreign ministry said the diplomats had named a different city as their destination and had "obviously got lost".The report comes just days after the United States said the accident was caused by a nuclear reaction when Russia tried to retrieve a nuclear-powered cruise missile from the Barents Sea.The diplomats were detained on Monday on a train in the city of Severodvinsk, near where Russian authorities said they had been testing a rocket engine with a nuclear component before the accident took place.The diplomats, who have been identified by Interfax as military attaches, were later released, but could face administrative charges for traveling in a restricted military area, agencies reported.In a statement, the Russian foreign ministry confirmed that the diplomats were on an official trip and had informed the Russian defence ministry of their plans."Only, they said their intention was to visit Arkhangelsk and they ended up en route to Severodvinsk," the ministry said."They obviously got lost. We are ready to give the US embassy a map of Russia," the ministry added.The blast at the military test site in August killed at least five people and caused panic after radiation levels jumped to 16 times their normal levels in nearby Severodvinsk.Russian authorities have given little information about the accident. But a US diplomat this week said that the accident took place when Russia attempted to retrieve a nuclear-powered cruise missile called Burevestnik from the Barents Sea."The United States has determined that the explosion near Nyonoksa was the result of a nuclear reaction that occurred during the recovery of a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile," Thomas DiNanno, the diplomat, said during a speech at the UN.Russia's plans for a nuclear-powered cruise missile that could in theory fly indefinitely were first revealed by Vladimir Putin during a speech last year. The missile is still undergoing testing, and some weapons experts doubt if it can ever be made operable.Russia's military was attempting to retrieve the missile from another failed 2017 test when the accident took place.It was not immediately clear whether the diplomats were traveling to or from Nyonoksa, the village near the military testing site, when they were detained. But train timetables would indicate they were returning from the village when they were arrested close to 6pm in Severodvinsk.Russia has maintained a shroud of secrecy around the incident, closing off waters in the White Sea to foreign ships to prevent them from collecting information about the explosion.
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| UN labor body: Qatar pledges to end 'kafala' employment laws Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:13 AM PDT ![UN labor body: Qatar pledges to end 'kafala' employment laws]( "UN labor body: Qatar pledges to end 'kafala' employment laws") The energy-rich nation of Qatar is pledging to fully eliminate a labor system that ties foreign workers to their employer and requires them to have their company's permission to leave the country. The ILO also says Doha also is considering a minimum wage. Qatar, whose citizens enjoy one of the world's highest per-capita incomes due to its natural gas reserves, partially ended the "kafala" system in 2018.
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| Foreigners in S.Africa appeal to be relocated after attacks Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:08 AM PDT  Hundreds of foreign nationals on Wednesday took to the streets of Cape Town, demanding to be relocated from South Africa after camping at the UN refugee agency offices for a week. The foreigners, many of whom described themselves as asylum-seekers, say they no longer feel safe in South Africa after a surge of xenophobic attacks last month. Many of the protesters have been camping at the offices of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Cape Town since October 9, vowing not to leave the premises until the agency addressed their concerns.
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| The news from the Brexit talks could be worse, Merkel says Posted: 16 Oct 2019 10:04 AM PDT ![The news from the Brexit talks could be worse, Merkel says]( "The news from the Brexit talks could be worse, Merkel says") German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was slightly more optimistic that a deal could be reached on Britain's planned exit from the European Union given the news she had heard from Brexit negotiations in recent days. "The news we are hearing from Brussels could be worse," she said at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron after a joint session of the two countries' cabinets in Toulouse on Wednesday. "I believe slightly more in the possibility of an exit deal being achieved based on what I have heard in recent days," she added, adding that she was waiting to see what the EU's chief negotiator and his team would come up with in talks with London.
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| Pakistan says talks with Riyadh, Tehran 'encouraging' Posted: 16 Oct 2019 09:51 AM PDT  Pakistan's foreign minister said Tuesday that Prime Minister Imran Khan's talks with Tehran and Riyadh had been "encouraging" after visits to try to defuse rising tensions in the Gulf. Khan travelled to Iran and Saudi Arabia as a "facilitator" between the arch-rivals, following a series of attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in recent months that have raised fears of war. "Our talks have been encouraging and the response that we got in the two countries was beyond our expectation," Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told a press conference in Islamabad after Khan's visit to Riyadh.
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| UPDATE 1-Trump says likely won't sign China trade deal until he meets with Xi Posted: 16 Oct 2019 09:05 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-Trump says likely won't sign China trade deal until he meets with Xi]( "UPDATE 1-Trump says likely won't sign China trade deal until he meets with Xi") U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he likely would not sign any trade deal with China until he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Forum in Chile. Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said the partial trade deal announced last week was in the process of being formalized. Last week, Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He announced the first phase of a deal to end the trade war between Beijing and Washington but did not offer many details.
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| UK PM Johnson says almost there on Brexit deal - lawmakers Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:58 AM PDT  Prime Minister Boris Johnson told a meeting of Conservative lawmakers the European Union and Britain were almost there on a Brexit deal but that the peak of the mountain was still partly shrouded in cloud, sources in the room told Reuters. "There was a sense of relief in the room that we are almost there, it has been a long slog," a Conservative lawmaker told Reuters on condition of anonymity. According to another lawmaker, Johnson said: "We're not there yet.
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| Paris says Iran has detained 2nd French researcher Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:53 AM PDT ![Paris says Iran has detained 2nd French researcher]( "Paris says Iran has detained 2nd French researcher") Iran has been holding a second French researcher in custody for months, France's foreign ministry said Wednesday, denouncing the detention as "unacceptable" and demanding his release. The confirmation that Roland Marchal is being held in Iran — as well as his fellow-academic Fariba Adelkhah — comes at a time of high tensions and diplomatic maneuvering in the Persian Gulf. French President Emmanuel Macron has sought to serve as a mediator between Tehran and Washington over Iran's nuclear program.
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| Turkish patriotism on display amid Syria operation Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:44 AM PDT  National soccer team players give military salutes during international matches, Turkish flags flutter from balconies and storefronts, songs extolling the glory days of the Ottoman Empire blare from a border town's loudspeakers, punctuated by the occasional boom of outgoing artillery. Since Turkey announced its incursion into neighboring Syria to clear out Kurdish fighters last week, patriotic sentiment has run high — as has bewilderment and anger at the overwhelmingly negative international reaction to Ankara's actions. "At times of this kind of Turkish operation, we as Turkish people feel prouder about our nation," said Cuma Gunay, a 47-year-old supermarket owner in the town of Akcakale, which sits on the border with Syria.
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| GBP/USD: DUP-Related Drop May Precede A Brexit Deal Rally Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:41 AM PDT ![GBP/USD: DUP-Related Drop May Precede A Brexit Deal Rally]( "GBP/USD: DUP-Related Drop May Precede A Brexit Deal Rally") GBP/USD has been struggling as the DUP opposes the upcoming Brexit deal. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ramping up efforts to convince the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to support the upcoming Brexit deal.
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| UK PM Johnson sees chance of Brexit deal, not there yet - spokesman Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:40 AM PDT British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told his cabinet of top ministers that there was a chance of agreeing a new Brexit deal with the European Union but the deal was not done yet, his spokesman said on Wednesday. The spokesman said that there remained outstanding issues in agreeing the deal, adding that talks with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party were ongoing. "The prime minister gave an update to cabinet on the progress in the ongoing Brexit talks, he said there was a chance of securing a good deal but we are not there yet, and there remain outstanding issues," the spokesman said.
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| Pakistan says Saudis, Iran willing to pursue diplomacy Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:29 AM PDT  Pakistan's foreign minister says Iran and Saudi Arabia have indicated a willingness to pursue diplomacy to end their disputes after Pakistan's prime minister traveled to both countries to try and ease tensions. Tensions between the rival Middle Eastern countries escalated following last month's attack on the Saudi oil industry. Shah Mahmood Qureshi said Wednesday that both the Saudi and Iranian leadership indicated a willingness to talk after meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, who traveled to Iran on Sunday and Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
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| VW Freeze on Turkish Plant Sparks Balkan Contest to Host Site Posted: 16 Oct 2019 08:21 AM PDT ![VW Freeze on Turkish Plant Sparks Balkan Contest to Host Site]( "VW Freeze on Turkish Plant Sparks Balkan Contest to Host Site") (Bloomberg) -- Volkswagen AG's decision to put its Turkish investment on ice has touched off a new round of contest among Balkan nations vying to host the 1.3 billion-euro ($1.4 billion) plant.Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia are hoping that Volkswagen returns to its earlier shortlist of sites, which featured the Balkan nations and North Africa. The investment would be one of the biggest by a carmaker in any of the three countries, which have long struggled to combat corruption and improve crumbling infrastructure."We've covered all requirements by the investor and we've offered more than that," InvestBulgaria Agency CEO Stamen Yanev said by phone on Wednesday. "We're still standing well as a factor of stability in the region, as a loyal partner and we're awaiting the final decision."Volkswagen on Tuesday delayed a decision on its auto factory in Turkey after the country's military action in northern Syria prompted an international outcry. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was among the leaders calling for an immediate end to the operation, alongside European Union-wide comments condemning the offensive.Volkswagen declined to comment, saying that it is currently evaluating its options and will comment once it makes a decision.The world's biggest carmaker has struggled to compete with Asian rivals because of high costs at its factories in western Europe, which has prompted its foray to the continent's east. Volkswagen has production facilities across the region, though some under different brands, in Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina.The three Balkan nations are banking on still-available skilled workforce, and relative stability versus a now-turbulent Turkey, according to officials.Serbia has also put itself out as a candidate. An investment by VW would "help stabilize the whole region," along with the benefits for the carmaker as the area still has qualified labor for the industry, Marko Cadez, head of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce said by phone. Serbia is outside the EU so unlike Bulgaria and Romania, its workers don't have access to jobs in member countries.\--With assistance from Andrea Dudik and Siddharth Philip.To contact the reporters on this story: Slav Okov in Sofia at sokov@bloomberg.net;Misha Savic in Belgrade at msavic2@bloomberg.net;Andra Timu in Bucharest at atimu@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Irina Vilcu at isavu@bloomberg.net, Balazs Penz, Tara PatelFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Will U.K. Parliament Back a Boris Johnson Brexit? We Do the Math Posted: 16 Oct 2019 07:59 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Even if Boris Johnson can strike a Brexit deal with the European Union, does he have the numbers to get it past Parliament?That hurdle tripped up his predecessor, Theresa May. While British negotiators haggled with their European Union counterparts this week, trying to hammer out an agreement, another set of talks took place in London. Members of Parliament have been going into Johnson's office to discuss whether they can support him.In charge of wooing MPs is Johnson's political secretary, Danny Kruger, who has been speaking not just to Conservatives but to opposition lawmakers who might be tempted to support a deal. The opposite of his more famous and abrasive colleague Dominic Cummings, Kruger is a gentle and thoughtful former political speech-writer who has set up two charities to help people on the margins of society.But can it be done? Here's how the numbers stack up.Target: 320Once non-voting MPs are accounted for, Johnson needs 320 MPs on his side to win any vote in the House of Commons.Baseline: 259The last time Theresa May tried to get her deal through, in March, she had the support of 279 Conservatives. They're mostly likely to back a Johnson deal too, but there are some problems.Johnson expelled a group of MPs from the party in September after they backed legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit. They were joined by Amber Rudd, who resigned in sympathy. Also out of the party is Nick Boles, who quit the Conservatives earlier this year in frustration at the Brexit deadlock.As a result there are question marks against 19 former Tories who previously backed May's deal. On top of that number, one deal-backing Conservative, Chris Davies, lost his seat to a Liberal Democrat in a recall election. That leaves Johnson 61 votes short. Where can he go?'Gaukeward Squad': 19The expelled Tories, who take their name from former Justice Secretary David Gauke, are temperamentally loyalists -- some had never voted against their party before September. Many of them are looking for a way back in. Given that their objection to Johnson's strategy was the fear he was pursuing a no-deal divorce, they may be happy to get back into line if he reaches an agreement.But it's not certain. Gauke has questioned whether Johnson's promises can be trusted, while former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has warned of the economic dangers of not having a close relationship with the EU. Several of them, including Antoinette Sandbach, have suggested the U.K. needs to hold another referendum.Johnson would be doing very well if he got all of them on side.Democratic Unionist Party: 10Johnson has worked hard to try to keep Northern Ireland's DUP engaged, spending 90 minutes talking to them on Tuesday evening and meeting them again on Wednesday. They have deep reservations about anything that creates any kind of border between Britain and Northern Ireland. But they also fear a no-deal Brexit, or Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Backing Johnson's deal might conceivably be the least-worst option.The DUP are the big prize, because they would unlock...The Spartans: 28The self-titled "Spartans" are Conservative MPs who refused to vote for May's deal. They chose their name to recall the fearsome Ancient Greek warriors who held off a numerically superior Persian force at the Battle of Thermopylae.When Johnson became prime minister, the Spartans were adamant they opposed any but the most minimal Brexit agreement. But in recent weeks they have begun to see the virtues of compromise. This is the result of the Benn Act, legislation that aims to prevent the U.K. leaving on Oct. 31 unless Johnson has reached a deal. It's made the Spartans fear losing Brexit altogether.The leader of the Spartans, Steve Baker, said on Tuesday he was optimistic Johnson could reach a "tolerable" deal. But another, former Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson, was more critical. If the DUP are on board, most of the Spartans will fall into line. But even without the DUP, many are desperate to get Brexit over the line.Two Spartans, at least, are fairly sure to back a deal: Priti Patel and Theresa Villiers are both in Johnson's Cabinet.Labour: 21May pinned her hopes on winning the support of a significant minority of MPs from the opposition Labour Party who believe the 2016 referendum result must be honored.She struggled to get more than five to vote with her, but 15 who didn't back her last time joined some who did in signing a letter this month urging the EU to do a deal. That might imply a commitment to actually vote for such an agreement. There's also Kate Hoey, a fierce supporter of Brexit, who's likely to vote the same way as the Spartans.Against that is the fear of retribution from their party if they do so. Leader Jeremy Corbyn and his team sense that defeating Johnson's deal is a key step on their route to beating him at an election. Others in the party see defeating a deal as essential to securing another referendum.Any Labour MP voting with the government risks expulsion, though a handful are retiring at the next election anyway so might not see that as an effective threat.Independents: 5Four independent MPs backed May's deal in March. A fifth, John Woodcock, might also be tempted.Other MPs: 2Two possible supporters defy categorization. Liberal Democrat Norman Lamb, who is stepping down at the next election, represents a seat that voted to leave the EU and has been critical of his party's anti-Brexit stance. And Jo Johnson, brother of the prime minister, voted against the deal in March, agreed to join his brother's Cabinet, then resigned. Both could potentially back a deal to settle the issue.The Risks?This tally gives Johnson a pool of 85 votes from which to find the 61 he needs. It's tight, but feasible. There is a question, however, of whether he might lose some support, for example among those Tories who voted for a deal in March and regretted doing so afterward.There's also another intriguing possibility. When Theresa May was prime minister, she said a Brexit deal that split Northern Ireland from Great Britain was one that no prime minister could accept. Now she's a former prime minister and if that's the path Johnson takes, could she live with it?She'll almost certainly stay loyal, but then Johnson did make her life very difficult, so it's hard to be sure.To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Thomas Penny, Adam BlenfordFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Trump says likely won't sign China trade deal until he meets with Xi Posted: 16 Oct 2019 07:36 AM PDT  U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he likely would not sign any trade deal with China until he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Forum in Chile. Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said the partial trade deal announced last week was in the process of being formalized. Last week, Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He announced the first phase of a deal to end the trade war between Beijing and Washington but did not offer many details.
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| Turkish invasion sparks NATO crisis but eviction is unlikely Posted: 16 Oct 2019 06:26 AM PDT  Turkey's invasion of northern Syria — along with the criticism and threats of sanctions brandished by fellow NATO members at Ankara over the offensive — is close to sparking a crisis at the world's biggest military alliance. From the Suez Canal crisis in 1956 to France leaving its military command structure in 1967 — which forced the alliance to move its headquarters to Brussels in Belgium — to the deep split among allies over the Iraq war in 2003, NATO bonds have been tested. Beyond that, Turkey is of great strategic importance to NATO.
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