| Mom of U.K. Teen Killed in Crash With U.S. Diplomat’s Wife Appeals to Trump Posted: 08 Oct 2019 05:07 PM PDT  Justice4Harry FacebookHarry Dunn was an outgoing 19-year-old and skilled motorcyclist with a twin brother and four other siblings who happened to be driving through the valley just outside the Royal Air Force base in Croughton, England, on the evening of Aug. 27, when Anne Sacoolas crested the hill with her Volvo XC90 luxury SUV. Sacoolas, the 42-year-old wife of an American who worked at the important intelligence gathering facility, had only been in the U.K. for three weeks. She pulled out of the base on the wrong side of the road, apparently forgetting for a moment the rules of left-lane British driving. The Second Oldest Profession is Here to StayDunn had no time to react when Sacoolas came straight at him, the Dunn family spokesman told The Daily Beast. The impact sent him flying over the top of the heavy SUV, causing multiple injuries. He died a few hours later in a local hospital. At the scene of the accident, Sacoolas, whose 12-year-old son was reportedly a passenger in the Volvo, was hysterical over what she had done. The car had diplomatic plates, but witnesses who rushed to the crash site told Northamptonshire police that Sacoolas immediately took the blame and gave all her details, including her British and American cellphone numbers.DMV records in Virginia, where Sacoolas previously was resident, show she had been cited for failing to pay attention while driving in 2006 but had paid the fine with no other penalty. Because Dunn was still alive when he was taken away by ambulance after the accident, Sacoolas was not arrested at the scene—nor was she checked for alcohol or drug use, according to a Northamptonshire Police spokesperson. When police went to the Croughton base the next day to tell Sacoolas that Dunn had died, she was understandably upset and assured them she had no plans to leave the country. When they came back a second time to get more information, she was lawyered up and assisted by officials from the U.S. Embassy to the U.K. The police went back again Sept. 15 to place Sacoolas under formal questioning in a wrongful death inquiry but she, her husband, Jonathan, and their three children had left the country, claiming diplomatic immunity. The U.S. Embassy in London said they did so on the advice of the U.S. State Department. The Sacoolas family has a home outside Washington, D.C., but they have so far not been spotted there. Calls to the home by The Daily Beast were met with a busy signal. The State Department issued a statement confirming they had left the U.K. but would not confirm where the family is. "We express our deepest sympathies and offer condolences to the family of the deceased in the tragic Aug. 27 traffic accident involving a vehicle driven by the spouse of a U.S. diplomat assigned to the United Kingdom," the State Department statement reads. "We can confirm the family has left the U.K."Edward Snowden Is Exposing His Own Secrets This TimeOn Tuesday, Mark Stephens, described as an expert in diplomatic law, told The Guardian newspaper that Jonathan Sacoolas was not listed in London as a diplomat and questioned whether his family indeed had full immunity. U.S. personnel working at Croughton, reportedly a major listening post for the Americans' CIA and National Security Agency, have been granted special diplomatic immunity.The British Foreign Office did not respond to a call for confirmation of Sacoolas' status and whether it should be waived. But the U.S. State Department was quite clear on the matter. "Any questions regarding a waiver of immunity with regard to our diplomats and their family members overseas in a case like this receive intense attention at senior levels and are considered carefully given the global impact such decisions carry," it said in a statement, adding, "immunity is rarely waived."Dunn's mother, Charlotte Charles, was only told last week that Sacoolas had left Britain. She is now pleading that Sacoolas come back to the U.K. to meet with her of her own accord. She isn't even asking that the supposed spy's wife be punished for accidentally killing her son. "We just don't understand from one human to another, one mom to another, how you could just get on a plane and leave behind the devastation she has without even speaking to us, without an apology of any kind?" Charles told Sky TV on Tuesday. "We're not a horrible family, we're a usual U.K. family that just need to put a face to—what we have now is a name… without knowing who this person is properly we can't begin to try and start our grieving process."The case has rattled the United Kingdom and of course has had a huge impact on the small community where the death took place and where the locals all refer to RAF Croughton as the "spy base." They are used to mingling with families stationed inside. In fact, the Sacoolas children had just started attending a private school called Winchester House nearby, where Dunn's father works as head of maintenance. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is also involved, promising to take the matter up with President Donald Trump if the American diplomatic process won't compel Sacoolas to return. "I do not think that it can be right to use the process of diplomatic immunity for this type of purpose," Johnson told reporters Monday. "I hope that Anne Sacoolas will come back and will engage properly with the processes of law as they are carried out in this country... If we can't resolve it then of course I will be raising it myself personally with the White House."For the record, Sacoolas and her husband are both registered Republicans. If she does come back, it will likely be of her own free will. It is highly unlikely the American government would force her to return. Normally, diplomatic immunity is granted only to those working out of the embassy in London under the 1961 Vienna Convention, which is meant to protect families of those working for foreign governments from politically motivated prosecution. But in 1994, a special arrangement was reached to extend it to those at RAF Croughton, which is a "listening" post that handles a third of the U.S. intelligence surveillance in the region. Britain's Independent newspaper reported in 2013, based on documents supplied by whistleblower Edward Snowden, that Croughton is one of two centers for "tech support activity" run by the Special Collection Service (SCS)—a joint CIA/NSA unit that operates a network of about 100 listening posts. Among its reported accomplishments: tapping into the cellphone of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.That neither Trump nor his State Department have seen fit to waive Sacoolas' immunity has not stopped Dunn's family from campaigning for Sacoolas to do the right thing. The family has set up a GoFundMe page to raise money to fight for justice for their son, even if that means traveling to the U.S. to petition Trump in Washington or even to find Sacoolas in person. "This funding page is being set up to help the family and his twin brother Niall through these traumatic times," the campaign note says. "And to build up a fund as the family embark on a campaign to search for Justice for Harry as the legal process unfolds." They have also set up Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook pages under the justice4harry hashtag where they post articles and information from the family. In one message, the family thank well-wishers for showing the respect for Harry they would like from Sacoolas. "His love for his family and friends outshone everything and made him the caring and loving young man he was," they write. "It's not until now, with all the messages we have received, that we have come to realize how many people's lives he has touched."RAF Croughton would not comment on the matter, but the Dunn family spokesman, Radd Seiger, whose own son was Harry Dunn's best friend, told The Daily Beast that the family will not stop fighting for justice until Sacoolas is back in the U.K. "President Trump, please listen," Dunn's mother said in her interview with Sky TV. "We're a family in ruin. We're broken. We can't grieve. Please, please, let her get back on a plane, come back to the U.K. We could understand how she's feeling, but more importantly, she needs to face justice, see what she's done."Read more at The Daily Beast.Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast hereGet our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| Trump shifts tone on Turkey in effort to halt Syria invasion Posted: 08 Oct 2019 04:06 PM PDT  In a span of 24 hours, President Donald Trump moved from threatening to obliterate Turkey's economy if it invades Syria to inviting its president to visit the White House. Trump tweeted that while U.S. forces "may be" leaving Syria, the U.S. has not abandoned the Kurds, who stand to be destroyed if Turkey follows through with its planned invasion.
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| English house builders report weakest demand since 2013 Posted: 08 Oct 2019 04:01 PM PDT ![English house builders report weakest demand since 2013]( "English house builders report weakest demand since 2013") Demand for newly built houses in England has fallen to a six-year low as home buyers await more certainty over Brexit before going ahead with a major purchase, according to an annual survey of small construction companies. The Federation of Master Builders (FMB), a trade body, said its members considered land, finance and skilled workers easier to find than a year ago, but that demand from home buyers had slowed further to its lowest since 2013. "Small house builders are starting to see the effects of Brexit uncertainty taking its toll on consumer confidence.
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| US restricts visas for Chinese officials over internment of Muslim minorities Posted: 08 Oct 2019 03:36 PM PDT  * More than 1 million Uighurs and other minorities detained * Move is seen as victory for Pompeo and Pence over MnuchinParamilitary policemen stand in formation as they take part in an anti-terrorism oath-taking rally, in Kashgar, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, China, in 2017. Photograph: China Stringer Network/ReutersThe US has imposed visa restrictions on Chinese government and Communist party officials accused of being involved in the mass internment of more than a million Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups in Xinjiang province.The restrictions, announced by the state department on Tuesday, come a day after the US commerce department imposed export restrictions on US companies preventing them from selling their products – particularly face recognition and other surveillance technology – to 28 Chinese entities, including the Public Security Bureau and firms involved in surveillance in Xinjiang."China has forcibly detained over one million Muslims in a brutal, systematic campaign to erase religion and culture in Xinjiang. China must end its draconian surveillance and repression, release all those arbitrarily detained, and cease its coercion of Chinese Muslims abroad, the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said in a statement.The US punitive measures mark the first time China has been held to account internationally for its programme of mass incarceration and persecution of religious minorities.The sanctions prompted a furious response from Beijing's embassy in Washington, which said that the US was using "the excuse of human rights" to interfere in the China's internal affairs.In a string of tweets the embassy said the move "seriously violates the basic norms governing international relations, interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China's interests".The embassy said: "The counter-terrorism and de-radicalization measures in Xinjiang are aimed to eradicate the breeding soil of extremism and terrorism. They are in line with Chinese laws and international practices, and are supported by all 25 million people of various ethnic groups in Xinjiang."Inside the administration, the sanctions mark a victory for Pompeo, Vice-President Mike Pence, the administration's ambassador at large for international religious freedom, Sam Brownback, and the new deputy national security adviser, Matthew Pottinger, over the treasury secretary, Stephen Mnuchin.Mnuchin reportedly argued against sanctions that would further derail difficult trade talks. News of the sanctions drove stock prices lower on the assumption that it would make a trade deal less likely.Donald Trump himself has sought to avoid direct criticism of the Chinese government for its treatment of the country's Muslims, as well as its attempts to crush pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, so as to avoid a breakdown in his personal relations with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.At a meeting on religious freedom last month at the start of the UN general assembly, scheduled at the same time as a global climate action summit, Trump gave the keynote speech but did not mention China or the events in Xinjiang, leaving it to Pence, Pompeo and Brownback.The fact that these long-planned measures have been taken may reflect Trump's awareness of his reliance on the religious wing of the Republican party for his re-election bid next year.The state department announcement did not name the Chinese officials that had been targeted, but officials had previously pointed to the Xinjiang party secretary, Chen Quanguo, a member of the politburo.
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| Trump's plan for Syria withdrawal weakens GOP unity Posted: 08 Oct 2019 02:47 PM PDT  Congressional Republicans have spent most of the past two years trying to limit public fights with President Donald Trump, either out of party loyalty or fear of being on the wrong end of a presidential tweetstorm.
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| UPDATE 2-Democrats alarmed about possible U.S withdrawal from Open Skies treaty Posted: 08 Oct 2019 02:45 PM PDT ![UPDATE 2-Democrats alarmed about possible U.S withdrawal from Open Skies treaty]( "UPDATE 2-Democrats alarmed about possible U.S withdrawal from Open Skies treaty") Four senior Democratic lawmakers said on Tuesday they believed the Trump administration may withdraw from a treaty that allows unarmed surveillance flights over U.S., Russian and other territory, warning it would be a gift to Russia and undermine confidence in the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. "Pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty, an important multilateral arms control agreement, would be yet another gift from the Trump administration to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin," the Democrats on the House and Senate foreign relations and armed services committees wrote in a letter to the U.S. secretaries of state and defense seen by Reuters. "The Open Skies Treaty is a critical element of U.S and European security, and a decision to wthdraw would be another blow to regional stability as well as Ukrainian security," wrote Senators Robert Menendez and Jack Reed, respectively the top Democrats on the Senate foreign relations and armed services panels, and Congressmen Eliot Engel and Adam Smith, chairs of the House foreign affairs and armed services panels, respectively.
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| Persistent trade tensions risk worsening poverty: World Bank Posted: 08 Oct 2019 02:07 PM PDT  As global trade tensions persist, investments are put on hold and without that cash to boost economic growth, poverty could surge, the World Bank's chief economist warned Tuesday. Without growth "inevitably, people will struggle," Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg said in an interview with AFP. The US-China trade war -- involving hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade -- is at the center of global disputes that also include Washington's friction with the European Union, changing rules over US trade with Canada and Mexico, and Brexit.
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| Irish PM Says ‘Very Difficult’ to Seal Brexit Deal Next Week Posted: 08 Oct 2019 01:41 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said it's hard to see a deal to break the impasse over Brexit being clinched next week, amid a stand-off over U.K. proposals over how to keep the Irish border invisible after it leaves the European Union.Problems remain with Boris Johnson's proposals to take Northern Ireland out of the EU's custom union, and give the region's power-sharing assembly a veto over rule alignment with the bloc, Varadkar said in an interview with broadcaster RTE on Tuesday.Varadkar agreed that some of the briefing from London about him was becoming toxic, but vowed to hold the U.K. to earlier promises to avoid a return to a hard border in Ireland."I don't play dirty," Varadkar said.To contact the reporter on this story: Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Democrats alarmed about possible U.S withdrawal from Open Skies treaty Posted: 08 Oct 2019 01:41 PM PDT ![Democrats alarmed about possible U.S withdrawal from Open Skies treaty]( "Democrats alarmed about possible U.S withdrawal from Open Skies treaty") Four senior Democratic lawmakers said on Tuesday they believe the Trump administration may withdraw from a treaty that allows unarmed surveillance flights over U.S., Russian and other territory, arguing this would be a gift to Russia and undermine confidence in the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. "Pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty, an important multilateral arms control agreement, would be yet another gift from the Trump administration to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin," said the senior Democrats on the House and Senate foreign relations and armed services committees in a letter to the U.S. secretaries of state and defense seen by Reuters.
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| UN chief says UN facing worst cash crisis in nearly 10 years Posted: 08 Oct 2019 01:17 PM PDT  Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Tuesday that the United Nations is facing its "worst cash crisis" in nearly a decade because 64 of its 193 members have not paid their annual dues — including the United States, its largest contributor. According to the U.N., 129 countries had paid $1.99 billion in dues for the U.N.'s 2019 operating budget by Tuesday. Because of the U.S. government's budget calendar, Washington usually pays its dues in October.
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| Russian Operative Said ‘We Made America Great’ After Trump’s Win Posted: 08 Oct 2019 01:07 PM PDT ![Russian Operative Said 'We Made America Great' After Trump's Win]( "Russian Operative Said 'We Made America Great' After Trump's Win") (Bloomberg) -- Kremlin-directed operatives opened champagne when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, according to a communication disclosed in a new Senate Intelligence Committee report outlining Russia's sweeping social media efforts to help him win."We uncorked a tiny bottle of champagne ... took one gulp each and looked into each other's eyes .... We uttered almost in unison: 'We made America great,'" one operative at the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency said in the message obtained by the Republican-led committee.The long-pending report by the Intelligence panel concluded that Russia directed an aggressive social media campaign to hurt Democrat Hillary Clinton and help Trump in the 2016 presidential election and warns similar efforts to interfere in U.S. politics are still under way. It was a bipartisan endorsement of the finding made by U.S. intelligence agencies and often questioned by Trump.The report, two years in the making, found that the Internet Research Agency "was overtly and almost invariably supportive of then-candidate Trump to the detriment of Secretary Clinton's campaign." As part of that effort, it targeted African-Americans through social media more than any other group.Chairman Richard Burr, a North Carolina Republican, said the Russian interference campaign hasn't ended and other adversaries are engaged in similar attacks."Russia is waging an information warfare campaign against the U.S. that didn't start and didn't end with the 2016 election," he said. "Their goal is broader: to sow societal discord and erode public confidence in the machinery of government."Burr said Russia floods social media with false reports, conspiracy theories and trolls to breed distrust. "While Russia may have been the first to hone the modern disinformation tactics outlined in this report, other adversaries, including China, North Korea, and Iran, are following suit."Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the committee's top Democrat, warned of more interference to come in next year's election. "There's no doubt that bad actors will continue to try to weaponize the scale and reach of social media platforms to erode public confidence and foster chaos," he said.Transparency UrgedWarner said Congress should act to require transparency from social media companies and disclosure of political ads online.The committee had previously released portions of its analysis. The findings parallel the intelligence agencies' conclusions as well as parts of the report by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.Among the findings were efforts by the Kremlin-directed IRA to convert social media into real-world actions. Operatives posing as U.S. political activists also "sought help from the Trump campaign to procure campaign materials and to organize and promote rallies."Trump has at times cited Russian President Vladimir Putin's assurances that Russia didn't meddle in the 2016 election, and the president has pursued in recent months a fringe theory that Ukraine conspired with Democrats to trigger an FBI investigation of election meddling that he's often called a "witch hunt."Committee RecommendationsAmong the report's recommendations is for the Trump administration to "publicly reinforce the danger of attempted foreign interference in the 2020 election." The committee suggested creating a task force to monitor other nations' social media interference efforts and develop a framework for deterrence.The committee also recommended that social media companies share more information about election interference with each other, as they have with extremist content, as well as providing it to government agencies and researchers. It also called for more publicity about the existence of influence operations.The panel urged that lawmakers consider expanding to social media the existing transparency requirements for political advertising on TV or the radio. Facebook, Google and Twitter have all put together ad transparency databases, but differences between them persist and legislative vehicles, such as the "Honest Ads Act" that Warner supports, have stalled.Senator Kamala Harris, a member of the Intelligence Committee who's running for the Democratic presidential nomination, said in a statement that the Russian tactics were "designed to suppress the votes of black Americans in particular" and that social media companies must step up their efforts to fight disinformation. She said they need to "ensure their workforces are diverse enough to identify and understand the cultural nuances that foreign actors exploit to divide and harm Americans."To contact the reporters on this story: Steven T. Dennis in Washington at sdennis17@bloomberg.net;Ben Brody in Washington, D.C. at btenerellabr@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Larry LiebertFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Britain's Brexit talks with EU on verge of collapse Posted: 08 Oct 2019 12:50 PM PDT  Brexit talks between Britain and the European Union teetered on the brink of collapse on Tuesday, with tit-for-tat claims of intransigence and sabotage before an end of October deadline. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel as he tried to salvage new divorce terms he has proposed ahead of next week's pivotal EU summit in Brussels.
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| UN meets on North Korea missile test which Europeans condemn Posted: 08 Oct 2019 12:37 PM PDT  The U.N. Security Council discussed North Korea's latest test of an underwater-launched ballistic missile Tuesday and its European members urged Pyongyang to abandon all weapons of mass destruction and engage in "meaningful negotiations" with the United States. The Europeans read a joint statement after the closed meeting condemning the Oct. 3 test and a series of short-range ballistic missile launches in the previous weeks. The statement called the launches "provocative actions" that are "in clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions," which ban ballistic missile launches.
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| Trudeau Liberals Face Battle Over Pocket Books In Canada’s Ohio Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:38 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Justin Trudeau's Liberals swept to power in 2015 on a surge of support from suburban Toronto voters such as Sohaila Khoda, an Iranian-Canadian who was once a fan of the Canadian prime minister. Four years later, she's considering his rival."We're getting to the time that we have to go Conservative," Khoda said after attending a boisterous all-candidates debate at a community center in Richmond Hill, Ontario, a city just north of Toronto. "The Liberals are going to lose seats."Like Ohio in the U.S., the sprawling suburbs around Toronto will likely dictate who will win the Oct. 21 election. After sweeping the diverse, immigrant-rich region four years ago, the Liberals are in facing a difficult battle against Conservative Party led by Andrew Scheer in the bellwether region known for its 905 area code.While polls tip Trudeau to win the most seats, his party is riding neck and neck with the Conservatives in the popular vote. If the Liberals sink to a minority government, or lose the election, chances are it will be because Trudeau lost support in this key area over his handling of foreign policy issues such as Iran and China, and the soaring cost of living.Khoda came to the evening debate seeking answers from Liberal incumbent Majid Jowhari on his position of resuming ties with Iran -- a country she fled 33 years ago -- even though she has made her choice. The Liberals' views on Iran, and "upsetting" efforts dealing with the U.S. on trade, led her to switch support to Conservative candidate Costas MenegakisOthers packing the gym suggest a close two-way battle between the Liberals and Conservatives in a riding pollsters say favors the incumbents."I think Majid Jowhari has a good chance," said Mohammad Mahmoudzadeh, 66, chairman of a local construction firm, though he no longer expects the Liberals to win a majority government.The Richmond Hill riding has about 110,000 people with a median total household income of C$73,563 ($55,245), similar to Ontario's provincial average. Three out of every five people here are immigrants, of which 72% are from Asia -- led by China, Iran and Hong Kong, according to the country's statistics agency. Almost two thirds of the population view themselves as "first generation" Canadians.Surburban IssuesRichmond Hill is one of 25 ridings in the 905 that includes the cities of Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan and Markham. They're family-oriented communities whose homeowners carry large mortgages, leaving little left over for spending elsewhere and often commute to Toronto for work, where lack of public transit is a perennial complaint.In 2015, the Liberals captured all of Toronto's 25 ridings and all but three of the suburban districts, helping Trudeau win a majority government with 184 of the 338 seats in Parliament. But the seats often flip. In 2011, Stephen Harper's Conservatives captured most of the suburbs and parts of Toronto to gain a majority. The two regions together make up 50 seats, accounting for 15% of the entire country."Since the early 1960s the suburban belt around Toronto has determined which party comes to power and whether it's going to be a majority or minority," Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto political science professor who specializes in Canadian politics, said in a phone interview. "And in this election, the Liberals are going to sustain significant losses -- they might lose half of those seats."Winning this region involves swinging votes by a couple percentage points and the Liberals are playing defense versus 2015, when Trudeau's "Sunny Ways" mantra of hope appealed to Canadians wanting change after nearly a decade of Conservative rule, Wiseman said. He anticipates lower voter turnout this time, especially among younger Canadians, which favors the Conservatives since they tend to gain the older vote.The Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat in the second-last week of the campaign. They each have 34% support, according to aggregate polling averages compiled by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp., with the New Democratic Party in third at 14%. Trudeau was projected to win 153 seats as of Tuesday.At Hillcrest Mall, one of Richmond Hill's biggest shopping centers, voters were divided. For Soroush Yousefi, 23, voting Conservative is a no-brainer even though he backed Trudeau four years earlier. Scheer's tax cuts and promises to boost the economy.Pocket Book"Back then, a lot of the things Trudeau promised seemed better, but since he's been in power, everything has been going downhill," said Yousefi, a sales associate, who points to the lofty cost of housing. "Everything just keeps getting more and more expensive and the jobs aren't paying enough to keep up with your expenses."A few stores away, employee Emma Hamilton said she's probably voting Liberal."I've been working 40 hours the entire summer each week just to save up for school so my biggest concern is everybody's stance toward education and I don't like the direction the Conservatives are going," Hamilton, 20, said while closing shop after a late weeknight shift. "I feel like Trudeau's all talk as well, so I'd like to vote NDP, but they never win."Noone at the mall or community center took issue with Trudeau's blackface controversy, photos of him in dark make up as a younger man, released earlier in the campaign.Even Richmond Hill's mayor wouldn't predict the outcome of the federal contest in his backyard during an Oct. 2 phone interview."It'll be very close and it might end up being a party where the two governments have to work together," Mayor Dave Barrow said.To contact the reporters on this story: Doug Alexander in Toronto at dalexander3@bloomberg.net;Natalie Wong in Toronto at nwong133@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net, Jacqueline Thorpe, Stephen WicaryFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| After Leaders’ Insults, Brazil Says It Was Blackballed by France Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:33 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Pocket Cast or iTunes.Brazil accused France of blocking its entry to a key international environmental body, just weeks after their leaders traded insults over wildfires in the Amazon.The decision to postpone the discussion of Brazil's participation in the environmental committee of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development was "due to a veto from just one country: France," Brazil's foreign ministry wrote in a statement. Repeated calls and messages to France's foreign ministry were not answered.Since 2017 Brazil has sought membership of the OECD club of developed nations, eager for the label of approval required by many investors. While Brazil's bid for full membership and its desire to join the environmental body are technically unrelated, the decision sours the atmosphere around the ongoing negotiations between the Latin American country and the Paris-based OECD.France's decision was "political" in nature and "does nothing to contribute to the global cause of environmentalism," the Brazilian foreign ministry statement added.The wrangling over membership of the committee also marks the latest nadir in relations between Brazil and the European country over President Jair Bolsonaro's environmental policies. Ahead of the Group of Seven summit in France in late August, President Emmanuel Macron threatened to scrap a trade deal between the European Union and the South American customs union Mercosur over what he described as Bolsonaro's "lies" on climate change commitments.Bolsonaro punched back at what his administration saw as an infringement of Brazilian sovereignty, and his government has undertaken a public relations campaign asserting its commitment to protecting and sustainably developing the rainforest. The fight turned personal when Bolsonaro retweeted a supporter's criticism of Macron's wife's appearance.Read more: Bolsonaro Slams Socialism, Urges Respect for Amazon Policy at UNWhile in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, Bolsonaro trumpeted Brazil's environmental policies and said that those who questioned his record were concerned with exploiting the country's mineral wealth. He didn't take part in Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' all-day climate change summit.OECD BidLast month, Environment Minister Ricardo Salles went to the headquarters of the OECD to present Brazil's pledge to adhere to dozens of standards and rules called environment instruments, with the aim of becoming a participant of the environment committee, a status one step below the committee's full membership.After the presentation, Salles was asked to leave the room so that the members could deliberate. When he came back, he was informed that the representatives would need more time to review Brazil's candidacy, according to a person who participated in the meeting.The person said the presentation lacked some elements and some countries believed that the case was not convincing at this point, which led the board to agree to resume discussions next year. A Brazilian official with direct knowledge said a new round of talks is scheduled for April 2020.In a statement, an OECD spokesperson said the Environmental Policy Committee "is examining a request from Brazil to become a participant of the committee and adhere to certain OECD instruments in the field of environment, and will continue to engage with Brazil on this in the coming weeks and months."\--With assistance from Helene Fouquet.To contact the reporters on this story: Samy Adghirni in Brasilia Newsroom at sadghirni@bloomberg.net;Simone Iglesias in Brasília at spiglesias@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net, Bruce DouglasFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Turkey says it won't bow to US threat over its Syria plans Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:31 AM PDT  Turkey said Tuesday it will go ahead with a military operation in northeastern Syria and won't bow to threats over its Syria plans, an apparent reply to U.S. President Donald Trump's warning to limit the scope of its expected assault. Trump said earlier this week the United States would step aside for an expected Turkish attack on Syrian Kurdish fighters, who have fought alongside Americans for years. The U.S. president later cast his decision to pull back U.S. troops from parts of northeast Syria as fulfilling a campaign promise to withdraw from "endless war" in the Middle East.
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| In Syria, the Damage to America Is Already Done Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:30 AM PDT ![In Syria, the Damage to America Is Already Done]( "In Syria, the Damage to America Is Already Done") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump's high-wire act on Syria continues. Even if he manages to climb down without harming the U.S. fight against Islamic State, which is unlikely, he has already done long-lasting damage to broader U.S. interests.To review: On Monday, Trump declared he was withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria but said he would hold Turkey accountable if it attacked a safe zone established for Kurdish forces. In another series of tweets on Tuesday morning, the president repeated those goals and reiterated those warnings — and then, for good measure, invited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington.The most optimistic reading of all this would be that Trump has managed to persuade Erdogan to back down. And in fact one senior U.S. official tells me that a full-scale Turkish invasion of northern Syria is off the table for now. Aykan Erdemir, a former Turkish parliamentarian and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also says he expects Erdogan to make a limited incursion but stop short of a military operation deep into Syrian territory.Considering the nightmare scenario — Turkey slaughters members of the Kurdish-majority Syrian Defense Forces, or SDF, and the 11,000 Islamic State fighters that the SDF currently detains are allowed to sow chaos — there's a temptation to be grateful for small favors. Doing so, however, would lose sight of the grave damage Trump's impetuous statecraft has already wrought.Start with the war against Islamic State. Trump is correct that these jihadists have lost almost all of their alleged caliphate's territory in the last three years. That said, the Islamic State retains its capability to wage a nasty insurgency, according to a report issued last summer by the inspectors general of the Pentagon, State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development.That report was written before Trump briefly gave Turkey a green light to invade the Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Syria. Trump's Twitter feed alone has already caused those allies to reposition their forces: Two U.S. military officials tell me that Kurdish fighters have started abandoning positions in al-Houl, where there is a camp for female refugees displaced by Islamic State, in order to prepare for a Turkish incursion.That camp contains many so-called ISIS brides, radicalized women who were separated from male fighters during combat missions. The larger worry is that the makeshift detention facilities constructed in the last two years to hold male Islamic State fighters will be abandoned if the Turks go forward with a full-scale invasion. The U.S. military has contingency plans to secure the highest-value detainees, according to these sources, but many mid-level fighters will probably make it back to the battlefield.In addition to the threat that SDF fighters will abandon the detention facilities that hold Islamic State fighters, there is also an expectation that the SDF will begin hedging its bets. The Kurdish militias that have aligned with the U.S. since 2014 against Islamic State will now seek protection from the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and by extension his foreign backers, Iran and Russia. The Iranians in particular, says Michael Nagata, the recently retired special operations commander for U.S. Central Command, will see a U.S. withdrawal as a strategic opportunity.Finally, there is the weakness Trump has displayed toward Turkey. Even if he has managed to persuade Turkey to limit its military operations to the border areas — and at this point, even that is unclear — Trump is rewarding Erdogan's recklessness. In the last six months Erdogan has ignored U.S. and NATO objections to his purchase of a Russian air defense system and tried to steal a municipal election in Istanbul. Now Trump has invited him to the White House.And that, perhaps, is the most galling legacy of Trump's Syria policy: He is showing the world how America abandons its friends and rewards its adversaries. That message will resonate even if the worst-case scenario for Syria doesn't come to pass.To contact the author of this story: Eli Lake at elake1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Newman at mnewman43@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| In Syria, the Damage to America Is Already Done Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:30 AM PDT ![In Syria, the Damage to America Is Already Done]( "In Syria, the Damage to America Is Already Done") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump's high-wire act on Syria continues. Even if he manages to climb down without harming the U.S. fight against Islamic State, which is unlikely, he has already done long-lasting damage to broader U.S. interests.To review: On Monday, Trump declared he was withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria but said he would hold Turkey accountable if it attacked a safe zone established for Kurdish forces. In another series of tweets on Tuesday morning, the president repeated those goals and reiterated those warnings — and then, for good measure, invited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington.The most optimistic reading of all this would be that Trump has managed to persuade Erdogan to back down. And in fact one senior U.S. official tells me that a full-scale Turkish invasion of northern Syria is off the table for now. Aykan Erdemir, a former Turkish parliamentarian and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also says he expects Erdogan to make a limited incursion but stop short of a military operation deep into Syrian territory.Considering the nightmare scenario — Turkey slaughters members of the Kurdish-majority Syrian Defense Forces, or SDF, and the 11,000 Islamic State fighters that the SDF currently detains are allowed to sow chaos — there's a temptation to be grateful for small favors. Doing so, however, would lose sight of the grave damage Trump's impetuous statecraft has already wrought.Start with the war against Islamic State. Trump is correct that these jihadists have lost almost all of their alleged caliphate's territory in the last three years. That said, the Islamic State retains its capability to wage a nasty insurgency, according to a report issued last summer by the inspectors general of the Pentagon, State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development.That report was written before Trump briefly gave Turkey a green light to invade the Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Syria. Trump's Twitter feed alone has already caused those allies to reposition their forces: Two U.S. military officials tell me that Kurdish fighters have started abandoning positions in al-Houl, where there is a camp for female refugees displaced by Islamic State, in order to prepare for a Turkish incursion.That camp contains many so-called ISIS brides, radicalized women who were separated from male fighters during combat missions. The larger worry is that the makeshift detention facilities constructed in the last two years to hold male Islamic State fighters will be abandoned if the Turks go forward with a full-scale invasion. The U.S. military has contingency plans to secure the highest-value detainees, according to these sources, but many mid-level fighters will probably make it back to the battlefield.In addition to the threat that SDF fighters will abandon the detention facilities that hold Islamic State fighters, there is also an expectation that the SDF will begin hedging its bets. The Kurdish militias that have aligned with the U.S. since 2014 against Islamic State will now seek protection from the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and by extension his foreign backers, Iran and Russia. The Iranians in particular, says Michael Nagata, the recently retired special operations commander for U.S. Central Command, will see a U.S. withdrawal as a strategic opportunity.Finally, there is the weakness Trump has displayed toward Turkey. Even if he has managed to persuade Turkey to limit its military operations to the border areas — and at this point, even that is unclear — Trump is rewarding Erdogan's recklessness. In the last six months Erdogan has ignored U.S. and NATO objections to his purchase of a Russian air defense system and tried to steal a municipal election in Istanbul. Now Trump has invited him to the White House.And that, perhaps, is the most galling legacy of Trump's Syria policy: He is showing the world how America abandons its friends and rewards its adversaries. That message will resonate even if the worst-case scenario for Syria doesn't come to pass.To contact the author of this story: Eli Lake at elake1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Newman at mnewman43@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Yemeni officials say explosive device has killed 4 children Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:28 AM PDT ![Yemeni officials say explosive device has killed 4 children]( "Yemeni officials say explosive device has killed 4 children") Yemeni health officials on Tuesday said an explosive device has gone off near the flashpoint port city of Hodeida, killing at least four children. The officials blamed the Houthi rebels, saying they scattered land mines and explosive devices in areas under their control in Hodeida to hamper a push by government forces last year. Yemen's war pits the Iran-aligned rebels against the internationally recognized government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition since March 2015.
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| A look at who's who in northeast Syria as war fears rise Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:22 AM PDT  President Donald Trump's announcement that U.S. troops in Syria would step aside to make way for a Turkish military operation against U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish fighters unleashed a torrent of near unanimous criticism and warnings of immediate and long-term negative consequences. A U.S. troop withdrawal and Turkish assault on the area risks re-igniting fighting in a corner of Syria only recently stabilized and where sleeper cells of the Islamic State group continue to operate. Kurds make up 10 percent of Syria's pre-war population and were an oppressed minority before the country's conflict started in March 2011.
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| Putin had a forest photoshoot in Siberia for his birthday, and it's the most majestic propaganda you'll see today Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:18 AM PDT  Vladimir Putin spent the weekend before his 67th birthday wandering through the Siberian mountains, picking mushrooms and flowers.
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| US pullback could boost Islamic State group revival in Syria Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:18 AM PDT  The American pullback from parts of northeastern Syria could help breathe new life into the Islamic State group if fighting erupts between the Kurds and Turkey. The White House has said Turkey will take over responsibility for the thousands of imprisoned fighters. Turkey is sending troops along the border in preparation for an offensive against the Syrian Kurds.
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| The Latest: Turkey sends reinforcements to border with Syria Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:17 AM PDT  Turkey is continuing to reinforce its border with Syria as it prepares to launch a military incursion against Kurdish fighters who had been U.S. allies against Islamic State group militants. Earlier, Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency reported that at least two convoys of buses carrying Turkish commandos headed toward the border Tuesday. Turkey's parliament has voted to extend by another year a mandate that allows the government to order cross-border military offensives in Iraq and Syria when faced with security threats.
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| EU parliament head says "no progress" in Brexit talks Posted: 08 Oct 2019 11:05 AM PDT ![EU parliament head says "no progress" in Brexit talks]( "EU parliament head says \"no progress\" in Brexit talks") European Parliament head David Sassoli said on Tuesday after meeting British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that "there has been no progress" in Brexit talks. Sassoli said Johnson had given vague answers to his questions about preserving an open border between the Irish Republic and British-ruled Northern Ireland after Brexit.
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| Johnson and Varadkar to Meet as Deal Chances Fade: Brexit Update Posted: 08 Oct 2019 10:29 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit and sign up to our Brexit Bulletin. The U.K. stepped up preparations for a no-deal Brexit in three weeks' time as negotiations with the European Union headed toward a breakdown. In a call on Tuesday morning, Boris Johnson told German Chancellor Angela Merkel a divorce agreement is essentially impossible if the EU demands Northern Ireland must stay in the bloc's customs union. Johnson spoke later to Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar and the two agreed to meet for talks before the end of the week.As the pound fell on news of clashes between the U.K. and EU leaders, Johnson's government published a 156-page report setting out what the country is doing -- and what businesses and citizens must still do -- to prepare for leaving the EU on Oct. 31 without a deal.Key DevelopmentsEU Council President Donald Tusk accuses Johnson of playing Brexit "blame game"Ireland sets aside $1.3 billion for no-deal divorceJohnson speaks by phone with Merkel and VaradkarScottish Court to rule Wednesday on enforcing anti no-deal lawJohnson Warned Against Big Tax Cuts as U.K. Faces No-Deal ShockPound slips 0.5% against the dollarJohnson and Varadkar Agree to Meet this Week (6 p.m.)Boris Johnson and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar spoke by phone for 40 minutes on Tuesday afternoon, their offices said in near identical briefings about the call."Both sides strongly reiterated their desire to reach a Brexit deal," a spokesman for Johnson said. "They hope to meet in person later this week."The meeting is most likely to happen on Thursday or Friday, Johnson's office said.Grieve Says Tory Win Not Assured (5:20 p.m.)Dominic Grieve said a Conservative win in an early general election is not assured, and disagreed with Brexit Party Chairman Richard Tice about the potential margin of victory if the two parties form an alliance."You may well end up with another hung parliament and absolutely the same problem coming down the track of what are we going to do when we are about to crash out?" Grieve, who was thrown out of the Parliamentary Tory Party last month, told the Bloomberg Invest conference in London.Grieve said the Tory party is in a "parlous" state in London as well as the southeast and southwest of England. The party would have to win "an awful lot" of leaver votes in the Midlands and northern England to make up for those losses, he said."If this government goes into an election saying that they believe in a no-deal Brexit, then not only the remainer votes, but I actually think some of the soft leaver votes in the Conservative Party will look at this madness and depart," he said.Former Tory Grieve Accuses Government of Lies (5 p.m.)Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve said he believes a law passed by Parliament to force Boris Johnson to request a delay to Brexit if he can't get a deal by Oct. 19 is fit for purpose.Alluding to the government's repeated assertions that Britain can both obey the law and leave the EU without a deal on Oct. 31, he told the Bloomberg Invest conference in London that it's "fantasy" that the government can avoid sending a letter to the EU requesting an extension to talks."I've never experienced a situation where you get a government which is prepared to lie so serially as a matter of policy," Grieve said. "We now have a government which appears to enjoy doing this," he said, "it's slowly trashing the constitutional and institutional base of the country."Germans Not Impressed By Johnson's Behavior (4:40 p.m.)German officials took a dim view of what they described as Boris Johnson's attempt to dole out blame after his call with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Johannes Wadephul, a deputy parliamentary group leader in Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, said the U.K. prime minister's strategy would backfire."If Johnson points a finger at Merkel, then three point back at him," Wadephul, a foreign-policy expert, said in a text message. "He doesn't want to recognize that the so-called backstop is unavoidable."Brexit Party Chief Says Pact Could be Winner (4:20 p.m.)Brexit Party Chairman Richard Tice said he doesn't believe the government has a "cunning plan" to avoid having to delay Brexit, and predicted the EU will decide to give the U.K. an extension that's "somewhat longer" than the three months currently envisaged. The best thing then would be an early general election, he said.r4today https://t.co/vGzsEmOXhf pic.twitter.com/7B5vNTDfIH— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) October 8, 2019 Speaking at the Bloomberg Invest conference on Tuesday, Tice claimed that if Boris Johnson's Conservatives agreed to an electoral pact with his party, the two combined could deliver a "thumping majority" of 60 to 100 seats in the House of Commons.U.K. Manufacturers 'Nowhere Near Ready' (4 p.m.)Make UK, the manufacturing lobby group, has issued a strongly-worded statement saying the country isn't ready for a no-deal Brexit, whatever Michael Gove, the cabinet minister in charge of planning for that outcome, says."The more evidence that government publishes the more it confirms that we are nowhere near ready for a 'no deal' Brexit," Make UK Chief Executive Officer Stephen Phipson said in a statement. "As it stands, exporters are going to be massively disadvantaged by leaving without an agreement."Phipson warned a no-deal departure would represent a "seismic change" and said there's no resolution on post-Brexit arrangements for issues including the mutual recognition of goods and data transfer.Labour MPs Urge EU Chiefs to Work for Deal (3:45 p.m.)Nineteen MPs from the opposition Labour Party wrote to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk urging them to work "night and day, if required" to secure a deal."If a new deal can be brought back to the Commons in the coming weeks that avoids a no-deal Brexit and ensures greater certainty during the U.K.'s departure, we believe it serves Britain's national interest to approve it," The MPs wrote. "Our votes will be decisive in determining the approval of that deal."The intervention indicates far more Labour MPs are ready to back a Brexit deal in the House of Commons than was the case when Theresa May's deal was last voted on in March. Then it garnered just five Labour votes.U.K. Briefing Aimed At Varadkar, Coveney Says (3:15 p.m.)Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said he suspects a briefing given to The Spectator magazine on Monday evening was aimed at pressuring Prime Minister Leo Varadkar to move in Brexit talks.The 800-word text message, attributed to someone in Johnson's office and published on the magazine's website, blamed the EU's refusal to move on the Irish border question for the imminent collapse of the negotiations.As he headed off to meet Michel Barnier in Brussels, Coveney said a deal is still possible, though the U.K. needs to bring forward solutions to break the impasse.Scottish No-Deal Plans Published (2:50 p.m.)The pro-independence Scottish government, which opposes Brexit, published details of contingency planning in the event of a no-deal split from the EU. Its authority includes control over education, transportation and the health service, while the U.K. is responsible for foreign policy and trade tariffs.As well as efforts to maintain supplies of medicine and food, it aims to make sure the agricultural industry gets 95% of its entitlement to EU subsidies through a loan program and has also set aside an extra 7 million pounds to help the poorest people.More ominously, Police Scotland has 300 officers on standby for any disruption at ports and borders as well as protests and potential unrest, the report said.No-Deal Brexit Poses 'Significant' Challenges (2:20 p.m.)A no-deal Brexit will throw up significant challenges, but Britain can get past them, Michael Gove the cabinet minister in charge of preparing for the outcome, told the House of Commons on Tuesday."It's not my preferred outcome nor the government's," Gove said. "We want a good deal. But whatever challenges no deal may create in the short term, and they are significant, these can and will be overcome."Gove stressed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson doesn't want to take the country out of the EU without an agreement, but that not honoring the 2016 referendum result would be "far worse" because of the damage it would do to democracy.Business Says More No-Deal Work Needed (1:55 p.m.)The U.K. needs to step up its engagement with business to prepare the country for a no-deal Brexit, the British Chambers of Commerce said in response to the planning document published earlier Tuesday."It's good that government has got its shoulder to the wheel," BCC Director General Adam Marshall said in a statement. "But it's going to have to push a lot harder to give businesses answers to the many complex and detailed questions they have."Marshall urged the U.K. and EU to redouble efforts to avoid a no-deal divorce, and chided the U.K. government for taking so long to revise its schedule of tariffs for a no-deal Brexit, given that it made only "three changes.""Businesses will be frustrated that it took government so long to publish the updates," Marshall said. "The delay has real-world impacts for businesses trying to plan for the unwanted prospect of a no-deal in a matter of weeks."EU Has Hardened Position, U.K. Official Says (1:40 p.m.)The European Union appears to have hardened its position on Brexit since the weekend, a U.K. official said. But a deal is still possible and talks are ongoing, according to the person, who was speaking on condition of anonymity.The main area of difference appears intractable for now: whether Northern Ireland is inside or outside the EU customs union after Brexit, the official said. The U.K. says it has to be out, and the EU wants it to remain inside.The other main area of conflict is the mechanism by which Northern Ireland should consent to continued regulatory alignment with the EU. The U.K. has proposed that the Northern Ireland Assembly should be given a vote every four years, while the EU is concerned that gives an effective veto to the Democratic Unionist Party.Fruit and Veg Supply Could be Hit by No-Deal (1:30 p.m.)A no-deal split from the EU could cause shortages of some fresh fruits and vegetables because of possible threats to time-sensitive supply chains, the U.K. government warned in Tuesday no-deal planning document.The "just-in-time" nature of grocery logistics in the U.K., which imports half the food it eats, means even short delays at the border could reduce the availability of a "limited number of short shelf-life" goods, according to the report.Ireland Sets Aside $1.3 Billion for No Deal (1.20 p.m.)The Irish government will make 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) available to support the economy if the U.K. leaves without a deal, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said in his budget speech in Dublin.About 200 million euros will be made available next year, while the government will borrow to intervene further in a hard Brexit, including 650 million euros for agriculture, enterprise and tourism sectors."A No Deal is unpredictable and different sectors could be impacted in different ways," Donohoe said.OK For Johnson to Commit to Oct. 31, Court Told (1:15 p.m.)At the latest Brexit case in Scotland, the court heard that there's nothing wrong with the government continuing to oppose an extension while saying Britain will leave on Oct. 31. That doesn't mean it will break the law if it takes that negotiating position with the EU, the government's lawyer said.It also means there's no need for judges to act on Boris Johnson's behalf to ensure a law is upheld, in this case sending the letter requesting a Brexit extension if there's no agreement by Oct. 19 (see 11:15 a.m.).Keeping confidential how leaving at the end of the month might be achieved lawfully is the right of the government, lawyer Andrew Webster told the Court of Session. "These are delicate times and the court should be very slow to enter the negotiating field," he said.Lord Carloway, one of the three judges on the panel at the Court of Session in Edinburgh, asked if the court should determine matters now and then see what happens after Oct. 19. The court will give its ruling on Wednesday.U.K. Says EU Needs to Compromise (12:55 p.m.)Johnson's spokesman, James Slack, has briefed reporters in London and reiterated the government line that the European Union now needs to compromise if there's to be a Brexit deal.It's "not acceptable" for Northern Ireland to be kept in the customs union after Britain leaves the bloc – one of the main issues blocking agreement, he said.While Johnson wants a deal, "we are only going to be able to achieve that if the EU works with us and compromises," Slack said. "The prime minister's position is a clear one: the U.K. needs to leave the EU in its entirety and it's not acceptable for Northern Ireland to be left behind in the customs union."Slack said Johnson's call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel lasted about 30 minutes and was a "frank exchange" (See 10:30 a.m.), and pushed back against European Council President Donald Tusk's claim that the U.K. is playing a "blame game" over Brexit.Oil Supply 'Secure' if No-Deal, U.K. Says (12:45 p.m.)The supply of crude and refined fuels will be secure in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the U.K. government said."The U.K. can draw on both substantial domestic production and oil imports from diverse international sources, including Europe, meaning that supply is secure," according to a no-deal planning document released on Tuesday.If the risk to U.K. fuel supplies became material, the government would be able to activate the Downstream Oil Protocol, making a reserve fleet of 80 road tankers available to the industry, it said.Financial Services Risks Remain in No-Deal (12:15 p.m.)Customers of U.K. financial services companies that use passporting to trade in the European Economic Area cannot be fully protected from risks, according to the U.K.'s document on planning for a no-deal Brexit published Tuesday."The EU authorities and some individual Member States have taken legislative steps to prepare for leaving without a deal, which the government welcomes, but in the absence of further actions by EU authorities residual risks remain," the document said.Contract continuity is a key issue. About 16 trillion pounds ($19.3 trillion) of swaps contracts between U.K. and EU traders mature after October. While the contracts will remain valid, the Bank of England and industry lobby groups have warned so-called life cycle events in the contracts -- such as extending the maturity of a trade -- could face hurdles.Smith Rejects Threat to Security Cooperation (12:10 p.m.)Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith attacked the overnight briefing from Johnson's office that Britain could stop cooperating on security issues if the EU doesn't give way."I am clear that any threat on withdrawing security cooperation with Ireland is unacceptable," Smith wrote in a Twitter post after Tuesday's cabinet meeting. "This is not in the interest of Northern Ireland or the Union."For a minister to use Twitter to attack the policy advocated by the prime minister's office is a sign of how far, and how fast, relations have deteriorated in Johnson's government. Were the prime minister to attempt to fight the next election on a no-deal platform, it suggests he'd face losing the support of some of his most senior ministers.Negotiations Resume In Brussels (12 p.m.)Talks between U.K. officials, led by Johnson's envoy David Frost, and the European Commission are resuming in Brussels, despite the prime minister saying a deal is essentially impossible as things stand.Frost and his team will be continuing to discuss the U.K.'s proposals with the EU side and give clarifications, a U.K. official said.U.K. Commits to No Infrastructure on Border (11:50 a.m.)The U.K. Vowed not to build any infrastructure on the Irish border in the event of a no-deal split, but acknowledged U.K. exports would face tariffs and checks as they pass into Ireland.It said in a no-deal Brexit planning document published Tuesday morning that it would not introduce new checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland and would try to maintain the status quo "as far as possible."But it said the policy might not be sustainable and would seek a permanent solution in talks with the bloc."Significant risks remain as this policy is temporary in nature and unilateral," the document said. "The U.K. Government will look to engage with the Irish Government and the EU as soon as possible following Brexit."Reserved response from Berlin After Call (11:45 a.m.)The response from the German Chancellery was very reserved in response to reports in London about the Tuesday morning call between Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson (see 10:35 a.m.).A government spokesman confirmed the call had taken place but declined to comment on the content of the conversation.The Chancellor is well aware of the blame game which Downing Street has started, but does not intend to enter it, a German official said under the condition of anonymity.Tusk Says Brexit Not 'Stupid Blame Game' (11:40 a.m.)EU Council President Donald Tusk held no punches in the ever escalating war of words between Brussels and London, accusing Boris Johnson of playing a 'stupid blame game' in his dealings with the bloc."What's at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the U.K. as well as the security and interests of our people," Tusk wrote on Twitter. "You don't want a deal, you don't want an extension, you don't want to revoke," the Council President added, before asking "quo vadis?" the Latin for "where are you going?"DUP's Foster Assails 'Crazy' Merkel Demand (11.30 a.m.)DUP leader Arlene Foster assailed German chancellor Angela Merkel's reported comments that Northern Ireland must remain in the EU customs union (see 10:35 a.m.), describing the idea as a "surrender.""For the U.K. to be asked to leave a part of its sovereign territory in a foreign organisation of which the U.K. would no longer be a part and over which we would have no say whatsoever is beyond crazy," Foster said in a statement.Johnson Can't Be Trusted, Scottish Court Told (11:15 a.m.)Brexit is back in Scotland's highest court as a group of petitioners argue it should write the letter to the EU requesting more time, as required by an Act of Parliament last month. The letter would then be sent in the event of Boris Johnson failing to comply with the law.Aidan O'Neill, the lawyer representing the group, told the panel of three judges at the Court of Session in Edinburgh that Johnson just can't be trusted, a line that's underpinned a series of legal challenges."What happens if he leads some sort of conscientious objection?" O'Neill asked. "We have a prime minister who apparently thinks he can continue his practice as a journalist by making things up and telling lies."The judges asked why the case on appointing someone to write the extension letter had come to them. The arguments will continue through the day.Starmer Says Johnson Wants No-Deal Split (10:45 a.m.)Keir Starmer, Brexit spokesman for the opposition Labour Party, accused Johnson of following a "cynical" strategy to intentionally "sabotage" the talks with the EU."Boris Johnson will never take responsibility for his own failure to put forward a credible deal. His strategy from day one has been for a no-deal Brexit," Starmer said in a statement. "It is now more important than ever that Parliament unites to prevent this reckless Government crashing us out of the EU at the end of the month."Johnson to Merkel: Deal Essentially Impossible (10:35 a.m.)Boris Johnson held what seems to have been a very difficult phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday morning.According to a British official, Merkel told the premier Northern Ireland must remain part of the EU's customs union if he wants to secure a divorce agreement with the bloc. Johnson told the German chancellor that this demand, along with the EU's unwillingness to engage with his new proposals, makes a deal essentially impossible.With little progress made in recent days, U.K. officials now believe Brexit talks are close to collapse. The BBC, which first reported details of the conversation, said Johnson's office regarded the call as a clarifying moment.Brexit Deal Looks 'Difficult,' DUP Says (10 a.m.)DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds said it looks unlikely a deal to break the impasse over Brexit will be reached this week, as the U.K. and EU remain divided over a plan which would effectively offer his party a veto over measures to avoid a hard border in Ireland.In an interview with Bloomberg TV, he said he doesn't see Boris Johnson watering down the consent principle and accused Dublin of wanting to have "its cake and eat it" on the issue.Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar appears to be "desperate" to avoid the blame for a no-deal Brexit, Dodds said.Shapps Denies U.K. Planning to Punish EU States (Earlier)Transport Secretary Grant Shapps denied the U.K. Government is drawing up plans to punish EU member states that agree to a delay to the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline. The threat was in a text message from one of Boris Johnson's advisers published by the Spectator magazine.The note, attributed to a "contact in Number 10", said that any EU member state that agrees to delay Brexit would go to the back of the line for cooperation on defense and security."I don't think that's the case at all," Shapps told BBC Radio. He said it isn't clear who wrote the text and insisted the government is in serious talks with the EU to get a deal.Rudd Accepts Case For Second Referendum (Earlier)Amber Rudd, who quit Boris Johnson's cabinet last month in protest at his Brexit policy, said she now accepts the case for a confirmatory vote on any deal agreed with the EU."We need to look much more carefully about how to find a compromise," she told BBC Radio, accusing Johnson of giving up on reaching agreement with the bloc."I still believe that we could find a deal that gets through the House of Commons," she said. "But we need to make sure that the Number 10 machine works with MPs, stops expelling MPs -- perhaps from its own party, works cross-party with Labour, and yes, may indeed have to have a confirmatory referendum on a deal at some stage to get it through."U.K. Tweaks No-Deal Brexit Tariffs (Earlier)The U.K. revamped the tariffs it will levy after a no-deal Brexit following warnings from industry that its earlier plans risked making domestic producers uncompetitive.Import duties for heavy goods vehicles will be reduced to 10%, in a boost to the road haulage industry, while levies for bio-ethanol will be raised and new tariffs for clothing introduced, the Department for International Trade said on Tuesday.Earlier:Boris Johnson Preparing for Brexit Talks to Collapse: SpectatorU.K. Tweaks No-Deal Brexit Tariffs for Trucks, Fuel and ClothingJohnson Warned Against Big Tax Cuts as U.K. Faces No-Deal Shock\--With assistance from Anna Edwards, Nikos Chrysoloras, Emma Ross-Thomas, Arne Delfs, Ian Wishart, Tim Ross, Robert Hutton, Jessica Shankleman, Helen Robertson, Greg Ritchie, Peter Flanagan, Rodney Jefferson and Patrick Donahue.To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net;Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net;Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UN Security Council urges progress in South Sudan Posted: 08 Oct 2019 09:58 AM PDT ![UN Security Council urges progress in South Sudan]( "UN Security Council urges progress in South Sudan") The U.N. Security Council said Tuesday that a peace deal in South Sudan signed a year ago is "a window of opportunity" to end the civil war in the world's newest nation and achieve "sustainable peace and stability" — but it must be fully implemented. The U.N.'s most powerful body said in a statement approved by all 15 members and read at an open meeting that it welcomes "initial progress" in implementing the agreement. It welcomed recent meetings between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar, who returned to Juba in early September for the first time in nearly a year for talks in preparation for the formation of a coalition government in November.
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| WTO urges quick ban on harmful fisheries subsidies Posted: 08 Oct 2019 09:42 AM PDT  The World Trade Organization on Tuesday called for countries to speed up talks aimed at hammering out an agreement on banning harmful fisheries subsidies. "It is clear today that the harm done by many fisheries subsidies cannot continue," WTO chief Roberto Azevedo told a conference in Geneva. The United Nations has said that countries should by 2020 ban all fisheries subsidies that "contribute to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, and refrain from introducing new such subsidies".
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| Trump’s Shameful Abandonment of the Kurds Posted: 08 Oct 2019 09:29 AM PDT ![Trump's Shameful Abandonment of the Kurds]( "Trump's Shameful Abandonment of the Kurds") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- "Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria," the White House announced late Sunday. U.S. forces "will no longer be in the immediate area." The Trump administration thus granted Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tacit permission to attack Kurdish forces in Syria — forces that have been vital U.S. allies in the fight against Islamic State.This abrupt shift in policy is both ill-considered and shameful.Evidently, for President Donald Trump, the Kurds are expendable. His determination to bring home the U.S. troops remaining in Syria outweighed any consideration of what might happen to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces once American protection is removed.Erdogan says Kurdish militias are aligned with co-ethnic separatists in Turkey; he views them as a national threat. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad sees the SDF as standing in the way of his reclaiming, with Russian and Iranian help, the whole of Syria. For the U.S., though, the SDF has been an indispensable ally in the fight against the Islamic State militant group — a fight that, contrary to Trump's apparent reasoning, is not yet over.Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, usually among the president's supporters, called the decision "a disaster in the making" and predicted an Islamic State comeback. Other Republicans, as well as many Democrats and former foreign-policy officials, also deplored the move. Trump responded to the criticism in predictable fashion, betraying a suspicion of doubt in a declaration of unwavering confidence, in terms that defy parody: "If Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I've done before!)."Critics of the new policy are right: It does not serve U.S. interests. And aside from this hard-headed calculation, the U.S. simply owes the Kurds its loyalty. Granted, the situation is fraught, because the U.S. has been allied both to Turkey, a NATO partner, and to the SDF. But the policy that Trump just abandoned — exerting pressure on Erdogan to refrain from confronting the Kurds in Syria — was both wiser and more honorable than this peremptory abandonment.Doughty fighters, the Kurds will not easily cede ground. Having been cast aside before, they will not take the news as a total shock. Nonetheless, the Kurds now stand to be crushed between Erdogan's hammer and Assad's anvil. The cost of this coming conflict could dwarf Kurdish losses in the fight against Islamic State. (The SDF says 12,000 of its fighters have been killed, and 20,000 injured.) A wave of refugees is to be expected. Most will head for the Kurdish regions of Iraq, adding to the burdens of a government that is already at war with its own people.The fallout won't end there. With the Kurds forced into a fight for their own survival, they cannot be expected to maintain pressure on what remains of Islamic State in Syria. Nor can they be asked to guard tens of thousands of imprisoned fighters and their families. The Trump administration says that Turkey will henceforth do that — a very optimistic assumption.This lamentable decision may already be too late to reverse. If so, the very least the administration should do is work to provide the Kurds refuge. Trump should prevail on regional allies and Europe — which has also benefited from the SDF's fight against Islamic State — to provide humanitarian support. He should urge the United Nations to establish safe zones for Kurdish refugees, ideally within Syria, but if necessary in Iraq, and press the governments in Ankara and Baghdad to allow this. And he should work with Congress to push through legislation granting Kurds asylum in the U.S.But none of this should have been necessary. Now and then, in costly and complex conflicts, countries have no choice but to abandon their allies. This was not such a case. Trump's rash decision will harm U.S. interests and is a discredit to the nation.\--Editors: Bobby Ghosh, Clive Crook.To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg Opinion's editorials: David Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net, .Editorials are written by the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Brexit Update: Germany's Merkel Informs British PM Johnson Deal 'Overwhelmingly Unlikely' Posted: 08 Oct 2019 09:02 AM PDT ![Brexit Update: Germany's Merkel Informs British PM Johnson Deal 'Overwhelmingly Unlikely']( "Brexit Update: Germany's Merkel Informs British PM Johnson Deal 'Overwhelmingly Unlikely'") A No. 10 Downing Street source has said a Brexit deal is "essentially impossible" in the wake of a call between U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to a Tuesday BBC report.
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| What to Know About the Massive Protests Roiling Iraq Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:58 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Explore what's moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Pocket Cast or iTunes.Iraqis were enjoying an unusually peaceful period. Baghdad appeared vibrant and safe in mid-September, with violence at its lowest since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, having plummeted following a victory over Islamic State two years ago. Then something cracked. Massive anti-government protests erupted and drew an unexpectedly harsh response from authorities. The oil-rich country is now mired in the kind of unrest it had hoped was in the past, with officially at least 100 people killed and thousands wounded. So what went wrong?What are Iraqis protesting about?The demonstrations against corruption, a lack of basic services and unemployment started out small in Baghdad and southern cities on Oct. 1. But after security forces responded with tear gas and bullets, they spread and grew violent. Government offices have been stormed and the airport road cut off. Authorities tried imposing a curfew and a near-total internet shutdown to restore order but that only inflamed tensions. Human rights groups believe the death toll could be higher than the government figures, which don't give separate counts for civilians or members of the security forces.How bad is the economy?Defeating Islamic State and a partial recovery in oil prices and production led to a recovery in growth. Iraq's currently the second-largest producer in OPEC and the fifth-biggest in the world. At the same time, public services remain poor and 25% of younger Iraqis are unemployed. There's been little progress in rebuilding infrastructure battered by conflict and about 1.8 million internally displaced people are in need of housing. The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction in the seven provinces affected by the war with Islamic State at $90 billion over five years.What must the government prioritize?Iraq will need to root out corruption, one of the main reasons for the failure to deliver public services. The nation's among the most corrupt in the World Bank's Control of Corruption Index. It also ranked 168 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index in 2018. Protesters say the political system set up after the 2003 invasion, which is based on ethic and sectarian quotas, rather than merit, lends itself to graft and means positions aren't filed on merit.What are authorities doing?After tactics to restore order during the first week of demonstrations failed, authorities tried reaching out to protesters. President Barham Salih called for dialogue, while the military admitted to using what it called "excessive force." Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, who took office only last year, ordered the army to withdraw from Sadr City and put the police back in charge of security there. The neighborhood lies in Baghdad's east, where 8 million people live in relative poverty and where the most serious clashes have taken place. The prime minister also issued a 17-point plan that includes creating jobs and stipends for the unemployed.How does Iran fit in?Some demonstrators have been carrying posters bearing the image of Abdul-Wahab Al-Saadi, a popular counter-terrorism chief whose demotion late last month has been blamed by his supporters on Iranian-backed politicians in Iraq. Iran has had an outsized influence in neighboring Iraq ever since its Shiite Muslim majority took a major role in governing following the U.S. overthrow of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni.How have markets reacted?So far, financial markets have taken the protests in their stride. Oil prices have actually declined, with investors more concerned about weaker global demand than supply disruption from Iraq. The country's CDS spreads have risen only slightly and the yield on its 2028 Eurobond has barely moved in the context of a five-year chart. One reason for this muted market reaction is the fact protests have yet to reach oil production or export facilities. Iraq has also seen bouts of social unrest in recent years which didn't impact the workings of government or oil flows.What's likely to happen next?Iraqis have been voicing their grievances for years, but usually in the summer when temperatures soar and services falter. The timing and scale of these protests appears to have taken the government by surprise. Abdul Mahdi came to power promising a solution to corruption and the divide between rich and power but overhauling the system is hard. His position weakened after Muqtada al-Sadr, the populist Shiite cleric whose bloc is the biggest in parliament, called for his resignation and fresh elections. The protesters have no leader and there's no one to negotiate with. Analysts warn the brutality of this wave of unrest could mark a dangerous turning point.To contact the reporter on this story: Caroline Alexander in London at calexander1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, ;Stephanie Flanders at flanders@bloomberg.net, Mark WilliamsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Congress Should Counter Trump’s Betrayal of the Kurds Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:50 AM PDT ![Congress Should Counter Trump's Betrayal of the Kurds]( "Congress Should Counter Trump's Betrayal of the Kurds") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Perfidy is sometimes necessary to procure or preserve national power, and the mightiest nations, more frequently than the meekest, find themselves in positions where being faithless to friends is the most expedient course. In an American history bulging with examples of calculated treachery, the Kurdish people are unique in having been sold out twice, by President Richard Nixon in 1975, and President George H.W. Bush in 1991.Now, they face betrayal by a third American president. The Trump administration has announced that the U.S. will stand aside as the Turkish military enters northeastern Syria in a potentially major offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.The SDF has been at the frontlines in the fight against the Islamic State: 12,000 of its fighters have been killed, and 20,000 injured. American commanders on the ground and in the Pentagon regard the Kurdish militias as indispensable partners. The governments of Turkey and Syria characterize them as terrorists.For President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the militias are a grave national threat; he believes they are aligned with Turkey's Kurdish separatists. For President Bashar al-Assad, the SDF is the immovable object that has resisted his brutal war to reclaim the whole of Syria.For President Donald Trump, the Kurds have been no more than an inconvenience since he proclaimed victory over IS last December. Keen to keep his campaign promise of bringing home all American soldiers in the Middle East, he has chafed at the obligation of maintaining a small U.S. military presence in Syria, primarily to keep up the fight against remnants of the IS, but also to prevent Turkey from launching an offensive against the Kurds.The Kurds, for all their proclamations of shock and disappointment, have long known how this would end. A people twice betrayed were never going to pin all their hopes on their betrayers. For several months, they have been negotiating with the Assad regime, anticipating American abandonment; but they have a weak hand, and cannot hope for much from Damascus.In any case, Assad may only have limited agency: His regime is heavily indebted to Russia and Iran. President Vladimir Putin is courting Erdogan ardently, and may find it expedient to let the Turks have their way in northeastern Syria.In short, the old Kurdish saying, "Kurds have no friends but the mountains," has never rung truer.If history is any guide, the Kurds will put up a stiff resistance. Years of fighting with IS have turned the SDF into a formidable force, but the Turkish military enjoys substantial numerical and technological advantages. Very likely, the Kurds will take heavy casualties, and a refugee crisis is all but certain.If the consequences of Trump's betrayal are inevitable, he might yet be able to ameliorate some of the pain — and save some American honor — if he follows the example of predecessors who abandoned allies in the past. Gerald Ford signed the Indochina Migration and Refugee Assistance Act of 1975 to allow tens of thousands of Vietnamese, Cambodian and Laotians to resettle in the U.S.; George H.W. Bush ordered Operation Provide Comfort in 1991 to succor hundreds of thousands of Kurds fleeing Saddam's vengeance; and Bill Clinton ordered Operation Northern Watch to keep them protected from the Iraqi dictator.Since Turkey is a NATO member, a U.S. military intervention in Erdogan's offensive once it has been unleashed would breach the alliance; nor can it provide the Kurds arms and intelligence to defend themselves. But Trump can and should act quickly to offer them refuge. He should press European and regional allies — all beneficiaries of the SDF's fight against IS — to prepare for a massive humanitarian effort.This could mean establishing safe zones for Kurdish refugees, in Syria and probably in Iraq. In turn, this will require marshalling international pressure on the governments in Ankara and Baghdad.Trump more than likely will do none of these things: He has shown little sympathy for the Kurds, observing only that they have "been fighting Turkey for decades." But Congress can help plug the moral vacuum in the White House. Lawmakers, many of whom are outraged by his decision to abandon the SDF, should force Trump's hand with legislation to give the Kurds refuge in the U.S.These actions are not only morally incumbent on the Trump administration, they are also crucial to reassuring other American allies, now and in future. The next time America betrays its friends — as history tells us it must — they should at least know that Washington will not leave them to their fate.To contact the author of this story: Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Bobby Ghosh is a columnist and member of the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Congress Should Counter Trump’s Betrayal of the Kurds Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:50 AM PDT ![Congress Should Counter Trump's Betrayal of the Kurds]( "Congress Should Counter Trump's Betrayal of the Kurds") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Perfidy is sometimes necessary to procure or preserve national power, and the mightiest nations, more frequently than the meekest, find themselves in positions where being faithless to friends is the most expedient course. In an American history bulging with examples of calculated treachery, the Kurdish people are unique in having been sold out twice, by President Richard Nixon in 1975, and President George H.W. Bush in 1991.Now, they face betrayal by a third American president. The Trump administration has announced that the U.S. will stand aside as the Turkish military enters northeastern Syria in a potentially major offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.The SDF has been at the frontlines in the fight against the Islamic State: 12,000 of its fighters have been killed, and 20,000 injured. American commanders on the ground and in the Pentagon regard the Kurdish militias as indispensable partners. The governments of Turkey and Syria characterize them as terrorists.For President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the militias are a grave national threat; he believes they are aligned with Turkey's Kurdish separatists. For President Bashar al-Assad, the SDF is the immovable object that has resisted his brutal war to reclaim the whole of Syria.For President Donald Trump, the Kurds have been no more than an inconvenience since he proclaimed victory over IS last December. Keen to keep his campaign promise of bringing home all American soldiers in the Middle East, he has chafed at the obligation of maintaining a small U.S. military presence in Syria, primarily to keep up the fight against remnants of the IS, but also to prevent Turkey from launching an offensive against the Kurds.The Kurds, for all their proclamations of shock and disappointment, have long known how this would end. A people twice betrayed were never going to pin all their hopes on their betrayers. For several months, they have been negotiating with the Assad regime, anticipating American abandonment; but they have a weak hand, and cannot hope for much from Damascus.In any case, Assad may only have limited agency: His regime is heavily indebted to Russia and Iran. President Vladimir Putin is courting Erdogan ardently, and may find it expedient to let the Turks have their way in northeastern Syria.In short, the old Kurdish saying, "Kurds have no friends but the mountains," has never rung truer.If history is any guide, the Kurds will put up a stiff resistance. Years of fighting with IS have turned the SDF into a formidable force, but the Turkish military enjoys substantial numerical and technological advantages. Very likely, the Kurds will take heavy casualties, and a refugee crisis is all but certain.If the consequences of Trump's betrayal are inevitable, he might yet be able to ameliorate some of the pain — and save some American honor — if he follows the example of predecessors who abandoned allies in the past. Gerald Ford signed the Indochina Migration and Refugee Assistance Act of 1975 to allow tens of thousands of Vietnamese, Cambodian and Laotians to resettle in the U.S.; George H.W. Bush ordered Operation Provide Comfort in 1991 to succor hundreds of thousands of Kurds fleeing Saddam's vengeance; and Bill Clinton ordered Operation Northern Watch to keep them protected from the Iraqi dictator.Since Turkey is a NATO member, a U.S. military intervention in Erdogan's offensive once it has been unleashed would breach the alliance; nor can it provide the Kurds arms and intelligence to defend themselves. But Trump can and should act quickly to offer them refuge. He should press European and regional allies — all beneficiaries of the SDF's fight against IS — to prepare for a massive humanitarian effort.This could mean establishing safe zones for Kurdish refugees, in Syria and probably in Iraq. In turn, this will require marshalling international pressure on the governments in Ankara and Baghdad.Trump more than likely will do none of these things: He has shown little sympathy for the Kurds, observing only that they have "been fighting Turkey for decades." But Congress can help plug the moral vacuum in the White House. Lawmakers, many of whom are outraged by his decision to abandon the SDF, should force Trump's hand with legislation to give the Kurds refuge in the U.S.These actions are not only morally incumbent on the Trump administration, they are also crucial to reassuring other American allies, now and in future. The next time America betrays its friends — as history tells us it must — they should at least know that Washington will not leave them to their fate.To contact the author of this story: Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Bobby Ghosh is a columnist and member of the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| British MPs seek answers about post-Brexit toilet paper Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:44 AM PDT ![British MPs seek answers about post-Brexit toilet paper]( "British MPs seek answers about post-Brexit toilet paper") British lawmakers have asked the government to give guarantees that supplies of toilet paper don't dry up in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The country is due to leave the European Union on October 31, and with three weeks to go there is still no deal to smooth over the flow of goods post-Brexit. Fearing supplies of imported loo roll might run out, MP Jonathan Edwards on Tuesday asked ministers how long toilet paper stocks would last if there was no agreement.
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| United Nations so cash-strapped staff could go unpaid in November, warns Secretary General Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:29 AM PDT  A financial crisis caused by late contributions by member states will leave the United Nations unable to pay wages next month, Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General, has warned. Speaking in front of the UN's fifth committee, which oversees the organisation's finances, Mr Guterres said money was so tight that last month's annual UN General Assembly debate was only possible because of emergency spending cuts made earlier in the year. "The organisation is facing a severe financial crisis," Mr Guterres said on Tuesday. "Budget implementation is no longer being driven by programme planning, but by the availability of cash at end... we risk exhausting peacekeeping cash reserves and entering November without enough cash to meet payroll." He called on those who have not yet paid their 2019 contributions to do so quickly. The United Nations relies on annual contributions by member states to meet its operating costs, and late payments often cause accountants in New York concern towards the end of the year. The UN General Assembly was only made possible because of budget cuts Credit: Ercin Top/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images However, officials say the annual budget hole is getting deeper and longer to get out of each year. In June, Mr Guterres warned the organisation will face "catastrophic" long term consequences if action is not taken to arrest the trend. On Monday, Mr Guterres said in a message to the Secretariat's 30,000 staff that the UN is running a $230 million deficit and instructing them to cancel non-essential travel and postpone meetings and conferences in a bid to save cash. Contributions to the United Nations are calculated annually using a formula based on each member state's gross national income, debt burden, and per-capita income. As of October 3, 128 of the UN's 193 member states had paid their contributions for 2019 in full. They include the United Kingdom, China, France and Russia, four permanent members of the Security Council. The largest late payer is the United States, the fifth permanent member of the UNSC. It usually does so in October because of US fiscal year. Last year it contributed about 22 percent of the UN's annual budget. The United Nations' operating budget in 2018-2019, not including peacekeeping operations, was around US$5.4 billion.
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| UPDATE 1-Russia and China to sign treaty on combating illegal online content Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:28 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-Russia and China to sign treaty on combating illegal online content]( "UPDATE 1-Russia and China to sign treaty on combating illegal online content") Russia and China will sign a cooperation treaty aimed at combating illegal content on the Internet this month, Russia's state communications watchdog said on Tuesday, an example of deepening cooperation between the powers. Critics have accused Russia's authorities of trying to implement Chinese-style curbs on the internet. Internet controls have tightened in Russia under President Vladimir Putin and in China under President Xi Jinping.
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| UN: Constitutional committee should lead to end of Syria war Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:23 AM PDT ![UN: Constitutional committee should lead to end of Syria war]( "UN: Constitutional committee should lead to end of Syria war") The U.N. Security Council says the launch of a committee to draft a new constitution for Syria later this month should be the beginning of a political process to end the eight-year-long Syrian civil war. The U.N.'s most powerful body said in a statement approved by all 15 members Tuesday that it welcomes Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' Sept. 23 announcement of the agreement between the Syrian government and opposition on a 150-member Constitutional Committee. The council emphasized its "strong support" for U.N. envoy Geir Pedersen, who will facilitate the work of the "Syrian-owned and Syrian-led" committee, to convene its first meeting in Geneva by Oct. 30.
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| Iran's FM says Saudi will be 'companion' if ends Yemen war Posted: 08 Oct 2019 08:15 AM PDT ![Iran's FM says Saudi will be 'companion' if ends Yemen war]( "Iran's FM says Saudi will be 'companion' if ends Yemen war") Iran's foreign minister says his country could turn into a "companion" for Saudi Arabia if the kingdom ends its war in Yemen, where the archrivals support opposite sides. Reportedly Pakistan and Iraq have sought to mediate tensions between Tehran and Riyadh in recent weeks. Tensions spiked last month after a drone-and-missile strike on Saudi Arabia's oil industry that shook global energy markets.
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| Cyprus-based project to monitor Mideast emissions Posted: 08 Oct 2019 07:56 AM PDT ![Cyprus-based project to monitor Mideast emissions]( "Cyprus-based project to monitor Mideast emissions") A new research center to monitor greenhouse gas emissions in the east Mediterranean and the Middle East officially launched Tuesday on the island nation of Cyprus as part of efforts to tackle climate change across the vulnerable region. The 30 million-euro ($33 million) project is equally funded by the European Union and Cyprus and will boast one of Europe's largest environmental observation posts.
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| Egypt, Cyprus, Greece condemns gas exploration by Turkey Posted: 08 Oct 2019 07:23 AM PDT ![Egypt, Cyprus, Greece condemns gas exploration by Turkey]( "Egypt, Cyprus, Greece condemns gas exploration by Turkey") Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece on Tuesday condemned an "unlawful and unacceptable" bid by Turkey to drill inside waters where Cyprus has exclusive economic rights. President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi hosted a meeting Tuesday with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Cairo. "Turkey's unacceptable practices and drilling ... are a blatant assault on the rights of the Cypriot Republic and the international law," Anastasiades told a joint news conference.
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| UPDATE 4-Protest-hit Ecuador seeks foreign help, relocates government Posted: 08 Oct 2019 07:20 AM PDT ![UPDATE 4-Protest-hit Ecuador seeks foreign help, relocates government]( "UPDATE 4-Protest-hit Ecuador seeks foreign help, relocates government") Ecuador sought mediation from the United Nations or Roman Catholic Church on Tuesday after six days of anti-austerity protests that have pushed President Lenin Moreno's government out of Quito and brought hundreds of arrests. Following tactics that have toppled past governments, thousands of indigenous demonstrators have flooded the highland capital.
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| Trump and Putin Both Hate European Cheese Posted: 08 Oct 2019 06:42 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- U.S. President Donald Trump is known to admire his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. That doesn't mean, however, that he should imitate some of Putin's least effective policies – such as declaring war on European cheese.In the U.S., a 25% tariff on cheese imported from the European Union kicks in on Oct. 18. In 2014, Russia banned EU cheese, and a long list of other products, in retaliation for European sanctions imposed on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine.For Putin, the embargo's goal was twofold: To hit Europeans where it hurt and to give domestic producers a chance to develop in areas where they were stunted by competition from imports. Cheese manufacturing was one such area. In 2013, Russia produced 330,000 metric tons (727 million pounds) of cheese and imported 356,000 metric tons from the EU. Trump's goals in his trade war are similar: He's punishing the EU for "treating the U.S.A. very badly" on trade and trying to boost domestic production and jobs. It's hard to see how he'll achieve either of those goals with cheese, especially if the Russian experience is any guide. It's consumers who ended up punished.The embargo did boost domestic cheese production by eliminating competition. But local producers never made up for the drop in EU imports.They didn't have to. Suddenly, they could charge much more for their often inferior products. They had no idea how to replicate Roquefort; matching its price turned out to be easier.Russians responded by switching to what are kindly called "cheese products" made with vegetable fats like palm oil. In 2013, only 87,000 metric tons of such cheese-like foods were produced. By 2016, their output jumped to 136,000 tons, increasing at a faster rate than the output of actual cheese.In recent months, the trend has reversed – cheese consumption is on the rise and substitutes are down. But that change is driven by increasing imports rather than by domestic production, which has largely flattened out. Importers have found new suppliers that aren't affected by the embargo, many of them in neighboring Belarus, where European cheeses are often repackaged as local for sale to Russia. Some people have even taken the matter into their own hands, buying cheese on trips to Europe. The pungent smell of ripe cheese sometimes wafts through return flights to Moscow.The effects of Trump's new tariffs in the U.S. will be milder. For one thing, the U.S. imported just 134,000 metric tons of cheese from the EU last year, only about 2% of total consumption; for another, the potential for local producers' price increases is limited to 25%, a price jump true cheese lovers will probably grudgingly accept in order to keep eating real Gouda, Pecorino or any number of blue-veined cheeses. But some change inevitably will occur: U.S. producers of specialty cheeses will happily raise their prices, and as a result, some consumers will switch to cheaper, mass-produced, processed cheese.U.S. cheese artisans have made much progress in recent years when it comes to quality. With Trump's tariffs shielding them from the European competition, there won't be much need for them to keep improving, but they'll be able to charge more. Meanwhile, the mostly small companies that import European cheeses – about $1 billion worth of them last year – may be threatened because switching to local products is unlikely to set off the potential drop in imports. In Russia, "import substitution" failed to do that.As for the EU, it'll probably survive the U.S. tariffs with minimal losses. It reacted to the Russian embargo with some emergency aid to food producers, with the dairy sector receiving 770 million euros ($846 million). Cheese exports dropped slightly, but then quickly recovered and continued growing.By following in Putin's footsteps, Trump won't punish the EU as much as U.S. consumers and small businesses. The domestic industry will get something of a windfall, but, if the Russian example is any indication, it won't use it effectively.The best way to fight unfair trade practices – for the EU sets prohibitive tariffs that can exceed 60% on some kinds of cheese – isn't to retaliate. It's to drive down prices and keep working on quality and the international reputation of U.S. products. U.S. cheesemakers still have a lot of work to do on those fronts. It's counterproductive to protect them from higher-quality competition. To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| U.K. Sees Brexit Deal as Near Impossible as Blame Game Escalates Posted: 08 Oct 2019 06:37 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit and sign up to our Brexit Bulletin. The blame game over the likely failure to reach a Brexit deal escalated, with the U.K. accusing German Chancellor Angela Merkel of making an agreement effectively impossible. The pound fell.According to a British official, Merkel told Prime Minister Boris Johnson that Northern Ireland must remain part of the European Union's customs union if he wants to secure a divorce agreement. Johnson responded by saying that condition, together with the EU's unwillingness to engage with his latest proposals, paved the way to a no-deal Brexit.European Council President Donald Tusk hit back.The sniping is more evidence that the U.K. and EU could fail to strike a deal ahead of next week's summit.Without that, Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the EU by the month's end. But, under the Benn Act, he also is required to seek an extension if he doesn't have a deal by Oct. 19 -- something that may still force him to seek a delay and hold a general election before going back to Brussels again.EU officials privately believe the British government's strategy is to pin responsibility for a delay or no-deal Brexit onto them. The bloc has signaled it is willing to permit an extension, seeing a general election as a likely consequence.The turmoil helped send the pound to the lowest level in a month against the euro on Tuesday.The EU has always argued that Northern Ireland must remain inside the European customs union in order to ensure there are no physical checks on goods crossing the land border with Ireland. The British government has long insisted Northern Ireland must leave the EU customs union along with the rest of the U.K., to avoid splitting off the region into a different economic zone from mainland Britain.Late on Monday night, an 800-word text message attributed to someone in Johnson's office was published on the Spectator magazine's website, blaming the EU's refusal to move on the Irish question for the imminent collapse of the talks. The author accepted that an extension was likely, and that Johnson would fight an election promising a no-deal Brexit immediately if he won.James Slack, a U.K. government spokesman, described the conversation between Johnson and Merkel as a "frank exchange" and denied Tusk's characterization.He said it was unacceptable for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and that Johnson had told Merkel that the U.K. had made a significant offer and that it was time for the EU compromise. Slack also said that the U.K. hasn't asked an EU member state to use its veto power to block another delay to Brexit day later this month.German officials disputed the British account of the call, while others in Europe found it difficult to believe that the typically cautious Merkel would have expressed herself so strongly. Nevertheless, relations were strained by the encounter.One German official said Merkel was well aware of the blame game Johnson's office has started, but did not intend to join in trading blows in public.After the call, Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which supports Johnson's Brexit stance, said accepting the EU's position would amount to "surrender."Hours later, the U.K. government published a report on its preparations for a no-deal exit. Such an outcome could cause shortages of some fruit and vegetables, force drugmakers to stockpile medicines, and require the government to deploy a reserve fleet of 80 oil tankers to maintain fuel supplies.Read more: Boris Johnson Plays a Shameless Game With Merkel: Lionel Laurent\--With assistance from Tim Ross, Patrick Donahue, Arne Delfs, Helene Fouquet, Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Andra Timu, Dara Doyle and John Follain.To contact the reporters on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.net;Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Edward Evans, Flavia Krause-JacksonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Trump Compliments Turkey as White House Says Erdogan Will Visit Posted: 08 Oct 2019 06:36 AM PDT ![Trump Compliments Turkey as White House Says Erdogan Will Visit]( "Trump Compliments Turkey as White House Says Erdogan Will Visit") (Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump complimented Turkey a day after clearing the way for the NATO ally to invade Syria, calling the country a "big trading partner" as the White House said its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, plans to visit the U.S. in November.The U.S. president's posture toward Turkey puts him further at odds with many Republicans, who have expressed alarm at the country's plans for a Syria incursion and more generally at Erdogan's increasingly illiberal behavior. Trump's former United Nations ambassador, Nikki Haley, appended a tweet critical of Turkey with the hashtag TurkeyIsNotOurFriend.Trump said in a tweet that Erdogan will visit Washington on Nov. 13. He also said Turkey makes the steel frame for the U.S.'s F-35 fighter, without mentioning that the Pentagon suspended Turkey from participating in the multinational project after Erdogan purchased an anti-aircraft missile system from Russia over Washington's objections.Turkey's currency, the lira, erased earlier losses and gained as much as 0.8% to a session high of 5.7837 per dollar following Trump's tweets.The White House on Sunday said American troops "would no longer be in the immediate area" if Turkey moves into Syria, sparking outrage from GOP lawmakers who are normally allies of Trump.But on Monday, administration officials who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity sought to minimize the impression created by the commander-in-chief: The U.S. still urges Erdogan not to invade Syria or to attack U.S.-allied Kurdish forces that the Turkish leader considers terrorists, they said.Only a few dozen U.S. troops were being pulled back, they said. The Defense Department added that Turkish aircraft have been removed from daily air operations by the U.S. and allies above southern Turkey and northern Syria.Trump seemed to adjust his message as well, saying Turkey would be held responsible for reining in Islamic State terrorists -- and that he'd "totally destroy and obliterate" Turkey's economy if it did anything he considers "off limits."\--With assistance from Jordan Fabian.To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Wayne in Washington at awayne3@bloomberg.net;Nick Wadhams in Washington at nwadhams@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Wayne at awayne3@bloomberg.net, Justin Blum, Larry LiebertFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Boris Johnson Plays a Shameless Game With Merkel Posted: 08 Oct 2019 06:30 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Anyone clinging to the vain hope that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is willingly prepared to soften his Brexit stance with a deal that's acceptable to all sides got a dose of reality on Tuesday.After a detailed list of predictable objections from the European Union to Britain's proposed alternative to the Irish border "backstop" (a guarantee to avoid a hard border in Ireland) the Downing Street blame machine went into overdrive, with unnamed sources bashing intransigence in Brussels and EU capitals.On Monday night there was a slightly hysterical 800-word text message to the Spectator magazine saying the talks were certain to crash; then a read-out from Johnson's telephone call with Germany's Angela Merkel on Tuesday morning, which the U.K. said signaled a Brexit deal was impossible. Beyond the shrill efforts of Johnson and his advisers to pin the guilt on other parties, nothing concrete has changed. The EU position remains much as it was before.But we have learned a few things.First, Johnson clearly believes that the more the objections to his plan pile up in the EU, the greater his chance of winning an imminent general election at home. It doesn't matter that the Brussels position has always been consistent: to respect the promises made by both sides on Northern Ireland to safeguard peace and the integrity of Europe's single market. Nor does it matter that any serious analysis of Johnson's "two borders for four years" proposals (with a regulatory border in the Irish Sea and a customs border on the Irish mainland) would immediately identify its impossibilities. The British response to Brussels's reasonable doubts is pure electioneering. The No. 10 source cited in the Spectator made an explicit link between the Johnson deal being rejected and how the Conservative Party would campaign to see off the threat of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. The source boasted too that "over half" of the British electorate would agree the EU was at fault (although one poll suggests they would also blame Johnson).Second, there is a recurring fantasy among pro-Brexit politicians that the way to get around Brussels is by pressuring individual countries. The assertion by Downing Street sources that Merkel, hardly known for changing EU policy on the hoof, unilaterally demanded that Northern Ireland stay inside the EU's customs union "forever" was unconvincing in its details. But as an indication of Merkel's unwillingness to sacrifice Dublin's interests or EU unity to avoid a no-deal Brexit, her exchange with Johnson was instructive. It is likely that Merkel simply refused to budge on the backstop and that this is being spun by Johnson's team as aggression on her part to fire up nationalistic U.K. voters — a dangerous road to travel.Third, Johnson's willingness to try to sabotage the EU from within if he doesn't get his way is becoming more apparent. Until now, Britain has stuck by commitments not to put sand in the gears of EU process. But officials in Brussels aren't blind to the prospect of a more hostile strategy, including open alliance with anti-EU parties and politicians across the region. With Johnson's excitable adviser Dominic Cummings calling the shots in London, anything's possible.Does all of this put paid to the chances of an agreed deal at next week's EU summit? Almost certainly, though the EU notes that technical talks are continuing.It's important to note that the salient facts haven't changed: Johnson says he'll respect a law passed by Parliament that forces him to seek an extension to the Brexit deadline; many EU capitals have said they'll accept such a request if it comes with a reason such as a U.K. election; and both sides say a deal is better than Britain crashing out with no safety net. Talk is cheap, anonymous briefings are even cheaper, but the cost of a no-deal Brexit remains exceptionally high for everyone concerned.To contact the author of this story: Lionel Laurent at llaurent2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| lululemon and the United Nations Foundation Launch New Program to Address Mental and Physical Health of UN Humanitarian Aid Workers Posted: 08 Oct 2019 05:59 AM PDT  With funding commitment from lululemon, Peace on Purpose aims to train and equip more than 3,000 aid workers and reach 30,000 UN staff over the next three years with mindfulness and self-care tools VANCOUVER, British Columbia-(BUSINESS WIRE)-lululemon and the United Nations Foundation today announced their partnership around an innovative program to address the mental and […]
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| UPDATE 2-Germany warns of repeat of 2015 EU migration chaos Posted: 08 Oct 2019 05:31 AM PDT ![UPDATE 2-Germany warns of repeat of 2015 EU migration chaos]( "UPDATE 2-Germany warns of repeat of 2015 EU migration chaos") Germany warned on Tuesday of a repeat of the chaotic influx of migrants that caught the European Union unprepared in 2015, as Greece and Cyprus sounded the alarm over a resurgence of arrivals from neighbouring Turkey. EU ministers met to discuss migration as Greece has again become the main gateway to Europe for people fleeing wars and poverty in the Middle East, Asia and Africa, with U.N. data showing nearly 45,600 arrivals by sea so far this year. "If we leave all the countries on the EU's external border (to fend for themselves), there will never be a common European asylum policy," German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said.
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| Trump's Green Light to Turkey Raises Fears About ISIS Detainees Posted: 08 Oct 2019 05:16 AM PDT  WASHINGTON -- President Donald Trump's sudden blessing of a Turkish military operation in northern Syria and his announcement of an American troop withdrawal from that region raised questions about the fate of thousands of Islamic State detainees that the Turks' targets, U.S-backed Syrian Kurds, have been holding in makeshift wartime prisons.Trump insisted that Turkey must assume responsibility for the captured Islamic State fighters and their families. But it is far from clear what will happen to them, and a host of issues arose from Trump's abrupt, if still murky, change in policy.What is going on in northern Syria?The situation is deeply complicated. For now, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces control northern Syria. They have been the primary American ally inside Syria in the war against the Islamic State, carrying out the brunt of the ground-level fighting with support from U.S. airstrikes and weapons. They operate prisons where Islamic State members are detained.The Kurds are menaced from the north by Turkey, which has been fighting separatist Kurds inside its borders for years and considers the Syrian Kurds to be terrorists, too. Meanwhile, President Bashar Assad of Syria, backed by Russia, controls the southern part of the country and wants to eventually retake it all, raising the possibility of a deal with the Kurds.The presence of American troops has helped maintain a fragile peace. But the White House said that Trump has given a green light for a Turkish military operation into northern Syria, and Trump said on Twitter that it was time to pull out. "Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out," he said, "and what they want to do with the captured ISIS fighters in their 'neighborhood.' "Who are the Islamic State detainees?The Syrian Democratic Forces operate an archipelago of ad hoc wartime detention sites for captive Islamic State fighters, ranging from former schoolhouses in towns like Ainissa and Kobane to a former Syrian government prison at Hasaka.The prisons hold about 11,000 men, of whom about 9,000 are locals -- Syrians or Iraqis -- and about 2,000 come from some 50 other nations whose home governments have been reluctant to repatriate them. They also operate camps for families displaced by the conflict that hold tens of thousands of people, many of them non-Syrian wives and children of Islamic State fighters."If Turkey attacks these Kurdish soldiers, there is a grave risk that the ISIS fighters they guard will escape and return to the battlefield," a bipartisan group of lawmakers who recently visited the Middle East said in a joint statement Monday.Would a Turkish invasion reach the prisons?This is one of many unknowns. A U.S.-brokered plan in the works would create a demilitarized "safe zone" a few miles deep along a roughly 78-mile portion of the Syrian-Turkish border to reassure Turkey and forestall any military conflict with the Kurds. That would not affect the Kurds' ability to keep running the prisons.But Erdogan, speaking at the United Nations General Assembly last month, has instead pushed for a much longer and deeper zone. A broader invasion could reach the prisons, and it would set off an armed conflict that could prompt the Kurds to pull guards from prisons so they could instead join the fight.The "worst-case scenario" is that the Kurds are so frustrated and angered by the United States' action that "they decide to release wholesale some of the detainees," said Christopher P. Costa, a former senior director for counterterrorism on Trump's National Security Council who now heads the International Spy Museum.Is Turkey planning to take custody of Islamic State prisoners?It was not clear. The White House said Turkey would "now be responsible for all Islamic State fighters in the area captured over the past two years." But Turkey has given no public sign that it has agreed to take over that headache.For now at least, the Kurds have told American officials that they will continue to hold the Islamic State detainees. But a senior State Department official acknowledged that the best-trained guards could be pulled away in the event of a conflict with Turkey, calling it a "big concern" that some Islamic State fighters could go free."It's hard to imagine Turkey has the capacity to handle securely and appropriately the detainees long held by the Syrian Kurds -- and that's if Turkey even genuinely intends to try," said Joshua A. Geltzer, a former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council in the Obama administration.Why did Trump complain about Europeans?The Kurds have implored countries around the world to take back their citizens who fought for the Islamic State and were captured. But that idea is politically unpopular in many European countries. Trump is correct that nations like Belgium, Britain, France and Germany have been largely content to let the Kurds bear the burden of detaining their citizens -- particularly the men.Many European law enforcement officials fear that if they repatriate their extremist citizens, they would be unable to convict them or keep them locked up for a long time. European counterterrorism laws are weaker than those in the United States, where a conviction merely for joining a designated terrorist group can yield a 15-year prison sentence.But Trump was wrong when he also said that the captured Islamic State fighters were "mostly from Europe." While scores of the imprisoned men have European citizenship, far more come from other countries that are part of the Muslim world -- like Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, to say nothing of the thousands of local Syrians and Iraqis.What about the 'Beatles'?Unlike many other countries, the United States has taken its citizens off the Kurds' hands. But there are two British detainees still in Kurdish custody whom the United States has a particular interest in keeping locked up: El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey.They are two of the so-called Beatles, a four-member cell of British Islamic State members who tortured and murdered Western hostages, including James Foley, the American journalist who was beheaded in August 2014 for a propaganda video. Another member of the cell, who was later killed in a drone strike, is believed to have killed Foley.The Justice Department intends to eventually bring them to the Eastern District of Virginia for trial, but a court fight in Britain has delayed that transfer. The lawsuit is over whether the British government may share evidence with the United States without an assurance that American prosecutors will not seek the death penalty."It's a good day for the Beatles," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who is normally a staunch Trump ally but who denounced the president's move as "complete chaos" and "a disaster." In a phone interview, Graham vowed to lead a congressional vote to try to impose sanctions on Turkey if it invades northern Syria, despite Trump's acquiescence.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| When 'Get Out' Is a President's National Security Strategy Posted: 08 Oct 2019 05:12 AM PDT  WASHINGTON -- President Donald Trump is once again pursuing a national security strategy at odds with the official position of his government, ordering a pullback of U.S. forces just inside the Syrian border. It is a move that his own senior advisers have warned would risk new chaos throughout the region.He is demonstrating that in his pursuit of ending America's "endless wars," no U.S. troop presence abroad is too small to escape his desire to terminate it. In this case, the mission has been to prevent Islamic State forces from reconstituting, and to keep another conflict at bay -- a Turkish attack on Kurdish forces, including on those that have been America's staunchest allies in the fight against the Islamic State.To the Pentagon and the State Department, that is a traditional role for U.S. troops, honed over 75 years of global leadership. But if there is a Trump doctrine around the world after 32 months of chaotic policymaking, it may have been expressed in its purest form when the president vented on Twitter on Monday morning: "Time for us to get out."Just this summer, the State Department's special envoy for Syrian affairs, James F. Jeffrey, one of America's most experienced Middle East hands, told a public forum not to worry about a precipitous withdrawal. "We plan on having a small residual force to remain on for an indefinite time," he said. The president, he added, "is much seized with this." But perhaps not seized the way Jeffrey imagined.Long before he was elected, Trump had sounded a recurrent theme about Syria -- as well as about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the U.S. presence in Japan and South Korea, and other global deployments. Acting as the world's policeman was too expensive, he complained. Allies played us for "suckers." Both in the campaign and today, Trump sensed that many Americans share his view -- and polls show he is right, even among some who loathe Trump himself.So when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey spoke by telephone with Trump on Sunday, the Turkish leader likely knew exactly what he was doing: circumventing the U.S. generals and diplomats who sing the praises of maintaining the traditional American forward presence around the world. The Turkish leader could appeal to Trump's instincts, and clear a path for his forces to fight those he calls "terrorists" over his border, even though they are the same Kurdish troops who have long been allies of the United States.Trump's sudden abandonment of the Kurds was another example of the independent, parallel foreign policy he has run from the White House, which has largely abandoned the elaborate systems created since President Harry Truman's day to think ahead about the potential costs and benefits of presidential decisions. That system is badly broken today. Trump is so suspicious of the professional staff -- many drawn from the State Department and the CIA -- and so dismissive of the "deep state" foreign policy establishment, that he usually announces decisions first, and forces the staff to deal with them later.It has happened time and time again on Syria. When he announced a unilateral withdrawal late last year, it was the final straw for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, whose resignation letter was a searing indictment of Trump's disregard for allies and alliances.By Monday morning, both traditional U.S. allies and Trump's staunchest Republican defenders, the ones standing up for him in the impeachment battle, argued that the decision was a victory for authoritarian leaders across the geopolitical spectrum.Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the majority leader, said Trump had rewarded America's adversaries. "A precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria would only benefit Russia, Iran and the Assad regime," McConnell said in a statement, a reference to Bashar Assad, the Syrian dictator. "And it would increase the risk that ISIS and other terrorist groups regroup," using a common abbreviation for the Islamic State.In the most biting line, he urged Trump "to exercise American leadership."McConnell was among the Trump allies who cheered the president when, not even three months after his inauguration, he ordered the first military strike of his presidency, a missile attack against Syrian air bases in response to evidence that Assad had, once again, gassed his own people. Trump said he reacted to pictures of Syrian children suffering in the gas attack. But he also ordered the action while Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, was at his dinner table at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort, eating what the president called "the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you have ever seen." It was clearly meant as a message: There was a new sheriff in town.Xi may have a different view now. Trump's calls for restraint have often followed his threats of fire and fury. Xi and the North Koreans may both have reason to believe that Trump may pull back from the Pacific -- their fondest wish -- in return for few concessions. It is a possibility Trump himself has periodically talked raised with aides while complaining about trade deficits.After Trump mysteriously suspended military aid to Ukraine in July -- now the subject of an impeachment inquiry into whether he was holding the aid hostage in return for politically damaging information on former Vice President Joe Biden -- his stated argument was that the United States paid too much, and Europeans too little.If there was any discussion in the White House about how slowing the military aid might damage efforts to contain Russia's power in the region, it has not surfaced.When he pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran, it was over the objections of a secretary of state, a national security adviser and a secretary of defense -- all since departed -- who urged him to build on the past agreement. Sixteen months later, he fired his next national security adviser, the hawkish John R. Bolton, for fear that Bolton would send him down the road to another "forever war."In that regard, Trump has correctly read the American people who, after Iraq and Afghanistan, also have a deep distaste for forever wars. It is the one issue on which Trump and former President Barack Obama agree, and a reason for Obama's decision not to make good on his promise of bombing Assad for crossing the "red line" of using poison gas.But Trump's objections go beyond Obama's. "Like some of those who are running to replace him, President Trump has conflated 'forever wars' with an open-ended presence," said Richard N. Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior George W. Bush administration official as America went into two wars between 2001 and 2003."We've had 70 years of open-ended presence in Germany, Japan, South Korea," he noted. "It's part of an alliance. And it keeps countries from doing things you don't want them to do," like building their own nuclear weapons.The Syria presence, Mattis had argued, was in that vein -- low risk, low casualty, high returns for America's security. It was a tripwire to keep the Islamic State from rising again, and Turkey from starting a war. Trump's Sunday night tweet, saying everyone in the region was going to have to work things out themselves, announced an abdication of that role.Trump may well pull back in coming days; in fact, by lunchtime Monday he already appeared to be pivoting, declaring on Twitter that "if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey."It was a strange threat to utter to a NATO ally. It did not specify what was out of bounds. And most of all, it did not describe how the United States would exercise that kind of power in a world in which America is viewed in many capitals as already getting out.This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company
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| Trump says he's a master dealmaker, but his record of dancing to the tune of foreign leaders says otherwise Posted: 08 Oct 2019 05:00 AM PDT  Trump has a long history of caving to foreign leaders when he's backed into a corner. Turkey, China, Russia, and North Korea are just a few examples.
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