| As prospect of election looms, British lawmakers begin no-deal Brexit battle Posted: 02 Sep 2019 04:01 PM PDT ![As prospect of election looms, British lawmakers begin no-deal Brexit battle]( "As prospect of election looms, British lawmakers begin no-deal Brexit battle") Lawmakers will decide on Tuesday whether to move Britain one step closer to an early election when they vote on the first stage of their plan to block Prime Minister Boris Johnson from pursuing a no-deal Brexit. Johnson has staked his political future on taking Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without an agreement, putting him on a collision course with parliament, where a majority of lawmakers previously opposed leaving without a deal. With less than 60 days to go, an alliance of opposition lawmakers and rebels in Johnson's ruling Conservative Party will use parliament's first day back from its summer break to launch their attempt to block a no-deal exit.
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| U.K. Election Looms as Johnson Raises Stakes of Brexit Fight Posted: 02 Sep 2019 03:51 PM PDT ![U.K. Election Looms as Johnson Raises Stakes of Brexit Fight]( "U.K. Election Looms as Johnson Raises Stakes of Brexit Fight") (Bloomberg) -- Britain faces its third election in just over four years after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would rather risk losing office than have his negotiations with the European Union undermined.In a dramatic ultimatum, Johnson will try to trigger a snap vote on Oct. 14 if he loses a crunch vote in Parliament on Tuesday evening.It's the culmination of a face-off between a combative new leader, who argues that threatening to walk away from talks with the EU gives him leverage, and a majority of members of parliament convinced that Britain crashing out of the bloc without any agreements would cause vast economic harm.More than three years after the referendum, Britain is still tearing itself apart over Brexit, an all-consuming quest that has poisoned the political climate, confused and alienated voters, tested relations with once-close European allies.The stakes keep getting higher and the process ever more murky.The MPs who oppose a no-deal Brexit -- including senior members of his own Conservative Party -- will try to seize control of parliamentary business on Tuesday with the aim of passing legislation that would force Johnson to delay Brexit in the event of no deal.Johnson told an emergency Cabinet meeting on Monday that if the rebels win, he'll respond by seeking a vote the next day to hold a general election."I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay," he said in a hastily arranged statement outside his office. "Let's let our negotiators get on with their work."Full-Blown RebellionThe menace reflects both Johnson's do-or-die approach to getting Britain out of the EU by Oct. 31. This is also not his first attempt to stop Parliament from tying his hands.Last week he asked the Queen to stop Parliament from meeting for a month. That galvanized his opponents, who realized they had little time to act, so over the weekend the government warned potential Tory rebels that they'd be expelled if they voted against Johnson. That too seems to have failed, as several Tory rebels announced they were unmoved by the threat.The political turmoil and uncertainty over Brexit has hit the pound in recent weeks, and sterling was down 0.8% on Monday.It's not clear whether Johnson will be able to follow his words with actions. To get an election, he needs two-thirds of MPs to vote for one -- 434 of them. He has only 311 -- even fewer if he starts throwing out Tories.What Labour WantsIn theory, making up the difference should be straightforward: The opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been asking for an election since he lost the last one narrowly. His close ally, John McDonnell, has repeatedly said "bring it on" in the past week. But many Labour MPs are ambivalent about it.One Tory rebel privately pointed out that it was impossible to specify an election date in the vote, and questioned whether Johnson could be trusted not to try to schedule the vote for after Britain has left the EU.A person close to the rebels, speaking on condition of anonymity, pointed out that Johnson was attacking Tories for voting against the government, when he did the same thing twice this year. The sense was that Johnson was doing everything he could to bring about an election.Election PlansIf the election did go ahead, Johnson would fight it arguing that he should be given a mandate to deliver Brexit, that he could take to the EU council on Oct. 17. Polls currently put the Conservative Party ahead, and Johnson is an accomplished campaigner and the most famous politician in the country.But uncertain factors include the rise of the Brexit Party, which might siphon off Tory votes, and the departure of Conservative votes in urban areas to anti-Brexit parties. Tory seats in Scotland would also be at risk. And if Johnson lost, he would become the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.The rebel bill, published Monday night, would require Johnson to extend exit day to Jan. 31 if by Oct., 19 he hasn't either reached a deal with the EU that's approved by Parliament or secured Parliament's agreement for leaving the bloc with no deal. It's drafted to limit Johnson's options.The prime minister, however, was adamant that he wouldn't be constrained. "We're leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts," he said.\--With assistance from Kitty Donaldson, Alex Morales and Jessica Shankleman.To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net;Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Guatemala arrests ex-1st lady, presidential runner-up Torres Posted: 02 Sep 2019 03:20 PM PDT  Former Guatemalan first lady and presidential runner-up Sandra Torres was arrested Monday on charges of campaign finance violations, the latest high-profile political figure to face allegations of malfeasance even as a U.N. anti-graft commission is set to shut down. Investigators searched Torres' Guatemala City home in the morning and transported her to court, handcuffed, with her face obscured by a scarf, a hood and dark glasses. Prosecutors said she is accused of unregistered electoral financing and illicit association related to the 2015 election and the National Unity of Hope party, of which she was both candidate and general secretary.
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| Reports: Israeli army faked casualties in Hezbollah attack Posted: 02 Sep 2019 02:13 PM PDT  Minutes after a Hezbollah anti-tank missile exploded on an Israeli army base, an Israeli military helicopter touched down and medics loaded a soldier on a stretcher aboard. Only it turns out there were no wounded Israeli soldiers. By Monday morning, Israeli media reported on the "deception operation" the military had waged against the Lebanese militant group the day before in the thick of the fog of war.
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| Johnson Threatens Oct. 14 Election in Battle Over No-Deal Brexit Posted: 02 Sep 2019 01:42 PM PDT ![Johnson Threatens Oct. 14 Election in Battle Over No-Deal Brexit]( "Johnson Threatens Oct. 14 Election in Battle Over No-Deal Brexit") (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Boris Johnson put the U.K. on notice that it may face an election within weeks, as the political crisis engulfing the country's divorce from the European Union deepens.Johnson will try to trigger a snap general election on Oct. 14 if he loses a crunch vote in Parliament this week, when his opponents will try to force him to delay Brexit, according to a senior official in his government.Members of parliament who fear the effects of leaving the EU without a deal will try to take control of parliamentary business on Tuesday, a step toward trying to force Johnson to seek an extension to negotiations in the event of no agreement. Johnson says that would destroy his strategy of threatening to walk away from talks if the EU won't give him what he wants.Johnson told an emergency Cabinet meeting on Monday that if the rebels win, he'll respond by seeking a vote the next day to hold a general election."I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay," he said in a hastily arranged statement outside his office.Rebels ActThe new menace reflects both Johnson's do-or-die approach to getting Britain out of the EU by Oct. 31, but also the failure of his previous attempts to stop Parliament from tying his hands. Last week he asked the Queen to stop Parliament from meeting for a month.That galvanized his opponents, who realized they had little time to act, so over the weekend the government warned potential rebels in his Conservative Party that they'd be expelled if they voted against Johnson. That too seems to have failed.The political turmoil and uncertainty over Brexit has hit the pound in recent weeks, and sterling was down 0.8% on Monday.This move could also end up highlighting Johnson's weakness. To get an election, he needs two-thirds of MPs to vote for one -- 434 of them. He has only 311 -- fewer if he starts expelling Tories.In theory, making up the difference should be straightforward: The opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Monday morning that his party wanted an election. But in reality many Labour MPs said that they would vote against an election even if instructed to support one.Vote DateOne Conservative rebel privately pointed out that it was impossible to specify an election date in the vote, and questioned whether Johnson could be trusted not to try to schedule the vote for after Britain has left the EU.A person close to the rebels, speaking on condition of anonymity, was defiant. They pointed out that Johnson, who was attacking them for voting with Corbyn against the government, did so twice this year, and they accused him of doing everything he could to bring about an election.Johnson might not even be able to table his vote. The rebels seeking to take control of the parliamentary agenda haven't specified whether, if they did so, they would allow government business to proceed.Election PlansIf the election did go ahead, Johnson would fight it arguing that he should be given a mandate to deliver Brexit, that he could take to the EU council on Oct. 17. Polls currently put the Conservative Party ahead, but uncertain factors include the rise of the Brexit Party, which might siphon off Tory votes, and the departure of Conservative votes in urban areas to anti-Brexit parties. If Johnson lost, he would become the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.The rebel bill, published Monday night, would require Johnson to extend exit day to Jan. 31 if by Oct., 19 he hasn't either reached a deal with the EU that's approved by Parliament or secured Parliament's agreement for leaving the bloc with no deal. It's drafted to limit Johnson's options, specifying the wording of the letter he would have to send, and that he would have to accept the EU's response unless parliament voted not to.Johnson, however, was adamant that he wouldn't be constrained. "I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay," he said. "We're leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts. We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or to scrub that referendum."(Adds Labour doubts about election in sixth paragraph.)\--With assistance from Kitty Donaldson, Alex Morales and Jessica Shankleman.To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Caroline AlexanderFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Saudi-led airstrikes on Yemen rebel-run prison kill over 100 Posted: 02 Sep 2019 01:35 PM PDT  Yemeni medics said on Monday they pulled dozens of bodies from the rubble of a Houthi rebel-run detention center that was hit a day earlier by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes, killing over 100 people and wounding dozens. The attack was one of the deadliest in more than four years of war in Yemen that have claimed tens of thousands of lives, thrust millions to the brink of famine and spawned the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The Saudi-led coalition, which has fought the Iran-backed Houthis since 2015, has faced international criticism for airstrikes that have hit schools, hospitals and wedding parties, killing thousands of civilians.
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| Sophisticated iPhone malware specifically targeted China’s Uyghur Muslims Posted: 02 Sep 2019 01:20 PM PDT  Late last week, security researchers from Google's Project Zero team provided us with fascinating details regarding a sophisticated exploit targeting iPhone users. The exploit itself relied upon a number of 0-day vulnerabilities and, somewhat curiously, indiscriminately installed malware on any device that happened to visit an infected website.Once installed, the malware would collect a user's photos, private messages, passwords, and even send GPS location data in real-time. Initially, the Project Zero team didn't mention who was behind the malware or who it targeted, save for a cryptic message that it may have been designed to target a specific ethnic group.A few days later, we now know a little bit more about the origins of the malware. Citing sources familiar with the matter, TechCrunch is reporting that the malware was likely a state-sponsored attack from China targeting the country's Uyghur Muslim community."It's part of the latest effort by the Chinese government to crack down on the minority Muslim community in recent history," TechCrunch notes. "In the past year, Beijing has detained more than a million Uyghurs in internment camps, according to a United Nations human rights committee."Additionally, some Muslims in Uyghur areas have actually been banned from fasting during the month of Ramadan in years past.Interestingly, subsequent reports have added that the malware in question didn't just target iOS users. According to Forbes, the malware campaign also targeted Android and Windows users.Speaking to the sophistication of the attack -- which persisted for two years -- sources tell Forbes that the malware on impacted sites was routinely updated to adapt to the computing usage habits of the Uyghur community.Apple patched the iOS vulnerabilities back in February, but the broader takeaway here is that even a company as security-minded as Apple can be left playing catch-up when dealing with state-sponsored malware.
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| Taliban attack Kabul as US envoy says deal almost final Posted: 02 Sep 2019 01:17 PM PDT  The Taliban claimed responsibility for a large explosion in the Afghan capital Monday night, just hours after a U.S. envoy briefed the Afghan government on an agreement "in principle" with the insurgent group that would see 5,000 U.S. troops leave the country within five months. The explosion sent a plume of smoke into the night sky over Kabul and caused a nearby gasoline station to burst into flames.
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| The Latest: Afghan official: Blast kills at least 5, 50 hurt Posted: 02 Sep 2019 01:08 PM PDT  An Afghan official says at least five civilians are dead and around 50 are wounded after a large blast in the capital, Kabul. Interior Ministry spokesman Nasrat Rahimi said the number of casualties from Monday night's bombing could grow as the blast destroyed a number of homes. The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the explosion, which came just hours after a U.S. envoy announced a deal had been reached "in principle" with the militant group for ending America's longest war.
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| Calm prevails on Lebanon-Israel border day after brief clash Posted: 02 Sep 2019 12:59 PM PDT  MAROUN EL-RAS, Lebanon (AP) — The Lebanon-Israel border was mostly calm with U.N. peacekeepers patrolling the border on Monday, a day after the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group fired a barrage of anti-tank missiles into Israel in response to earlier attacks, triggering Israeli artillery fire. The missile attack into Israel on Sunday did not inflict any casualties on the Israeli side. It came after Hezbollah vowed to retaliate for an Israeli airstrike that killed two Hezbollah operatives in Syria and an Israeli drone strike on the group's stronghold south of Beirut in late August.
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| Iran admits its rocket blew up Posted: 02 Sep 2019 12:40 PM PDT  The explosion marked the third failure involving a rocket at the Iranian center, which has raised suspicions of sabotage in Iran's space program.
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| UK PM to call election if Brexit strategy defeated: top official Posted: 02 Sep 2019 12:34 PM PDT  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will call an election for October 14 if MPs vote against his Brexit strategy, a top official said Monday on the eve of a parliamentary showdown. MPs from Johnson's own Conservative Party are preparing to join opposition lawmakers in a vote on Tuesday to try to force him to delay Brexit if he cannot strike an agreement with Brussels in the next few weeks. A senior official said that if the government loses the vote, it would table a parliamentary vote for Wednesday on holding an early election.
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| Iran warns of 'strong step' from atomic deal if no new terms Posted: 02 Sep 2019 12:13 PM PDT  Iran will "take a strong step" away from its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers if Europe cannot offer the country new terms by a deadline at the end of this week, a government spokesman said Monday as top Iranian diplomats traveled to France and Russia for last-minute talks. The comments from Ali Rabiei reinforced the Friday deadline Iran had set for Europe to offer it a way to sell its crude oil on the global market. Crushing U.S. sanctions imposed after President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal have curbed Iran's oil exports and sent its economy into freefall.
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| Iraq suspends US-funded TV station for 3 months over program Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:58 AM PDT ![Iraq suspends US-funded TV station for 3 months over program]( "Iraq suspends US-funded TV station for 3 months over program") Iraqi authorities on Monday suspended the license of a U.S.-funded TV station for three months after it aired a program on alleged corruption within Iraq's Sunni and Shiite religious establishments. The investigative report that aired on Saturday on Alhurra accused senior religious figures of benefiting from businesses as a result of their connections with the state. The report triggered an outcry on social media with some politicians demanding that the station's offices in Iraq be closed down.
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| Palestinian women protest after suspected honor killing Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:54 AM PDT  Hundreds of Palestinian women held a demonstration in the West Bank on Monday to demand an investigation into the death of a 21-year-old woman who many suspect was the victim of a so-called honor killing. Israa Ghrayeb, a makeup artist from a village near Bethlehem, died last month after being hospitalized with severe injuries. Friends and women's rights activists suspect her male relatives assaulted her over a video shared online that purportedly showed her out with a man who had proposed to her.
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| Iran says views converging with France on breaking impasse Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:49 AM PDT  Iran said Monday its views have been converging with those of France on ways to save a nuclear deal at risk of unravelling since the US withdrew last year. Government spokesman Ali Rabiei also suggested President Hassan Rouhani could meet US counterpart Donald Trump if it served Iran's interests, while cautioning there was no need to meet an "agitator" in the current circumstances. Rouhani has had a series of phone calls with French President Emmanuel Macron in recent weeks aimed at salvaging the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
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| Trump Channels Reagan on Path Toward Arms Control Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:34 AM PDT  Donald Trump has already disrupted the global regime for managing nuclear arms. Should he succeed in winning a second term in the White House, he might well transform that regime entirely. And transformation is long overdue.Past is PrologueNuclear arms control aims to diminish the likelihood of nuclear conflict. There are two very different views of how to do this: one focuses on process, the other on outcomes.In the early years after World War II, Washington briefly toyed with the idea of "atomic diplomacy." After all, America had a monopoly on atomic weapons, so maybe the United States could use the threat of nuclear attack to press the Russians to be reasonable. That notion didn't last long.After Stalin got the bomb and the Cold War turned frigid, America started to build out its arsenal. President Dwight Eisenhower decided to heavily invest in a nuclear deterrent, figuring strategic forces were cheaper than conventional ones. John Kennedy followed as president, in part by a campaign promise to fix "the missile gap."In reality, the U.S. nuclear arsenal outmatched the Soviets' in the early 1960s, but we built more weapons anyway. Moscow scrambled to catch-up, even risking deploying nuclear weapons in the Western Hemisphere sparking the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.That crisis helped both Washington and Moscow figure out that a winner-take-all arms race maybe wasn't the best idea. Both sides started giving more serious thought to managing, rather than winning, the arms race. In 1963, America, the Soviet Union and Great Britain signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, prohibiting testing nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, underwater or in space. Kennedy considered the test-ban one of his greatest foreign policy achievements.Paul Nitze, who had helped fashion the case for building out the U.S. nuclear arsenal, became one of the leading proponents for arms control. Nitze served on the delegation to the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) from 1969 to 1973. (On the other hand, he opposed the ratification of SALT II in 1979.)This is where the visions of arms control really started to diverge. One side argued it was the regime itself that was crucial, that as long as the two sides were talking and working within an arms control framework, it was possible to mitigate the threat of nuclear war. The other side focused more on outcomes, arguing that arms control was only useful if there were actually "controls" that were honored and diminished threats.The reality is that, through the 1980s, arms control didn't eliminate one nuclear weapon.Then came Ronald Reagan.Reagan believed in outcomes over process.And he truly believed that nuclear weapons were the scourge of mankind. He wanted to make them irrelevant to strategic competition. Hence his commitment to missile defense and real weapons reductions. This is all described well in Paul Lettow's Ronald Reagan and His Quest to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (2006).It is worth mentioning Reagan, not only because he represents a different strand in the DNA of arms control, but because he is a formative influence on Trump. Trump rose as a prominent businessmen and public figure during Reagan's presidency and in many respects has modeled his strategic thinking on Reagan's. This is reflected in Trump's adoption of Reagan's "peace through strength" mantra, as well as his sweeping vision of making nuclear weapons irrelevant.It is also worth noting the sharp contrast between the Reagan-Trump approach and that of the last administration. The arms control debate became almost moribund in the 1990s. Developments in India, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran led nuclear experts to fret far more about nuclear proliferation. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his aggressive attitude towards the West, however, put arms control back on the agenda. Obama responded with an approach that pleased traditional arms control advocates but accomplished little.Obama was a process guy. He shared the hope of a world without nuclear weapons, embracing an approach called "global zero," under which the United States would try to foster denuclearization by minimizing America's reliance on a strategic deterrent. He signed the New START and ignored Russian violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement.Unfortunately, all this accomplished was to contribute to a strategic imbalance: Russia and China expanded and modernized their nuclear arsenals while America allowed its deterrent to atrophy. Even before the end of Mr. Obama's presidency, it was clear that the campaign for global zero was a bust. The Age of TrumpTrump has been pretty consistent in how he has tried to address all the big national security challenges—and yes, his approach has been rather Reaganesque. On the one hand, he demonstrates a capacity to defend U.S. interests. On the other, he offers a diplomatic option as a means to achieve a stable, sustainable resolution of conflict. Reagan, too, took this approach when, for example, he deployed INF systems in Europe as a precursor to negotiating the complete elimination of that class of weapons with the Soviet Union.Like Reagan, Trump believes that in a strategic arms competition America is best off if it establishes that it can defend itself through a mix of offensive and defensive assets. The United States must demonstrate a missile defense that can protect against nuclear attack as well as the capability to retaliate with modernized nuclear weapons. While Trump hasn't yet built out missile defenses to deal with strategic threats, clearly that is the direction he is headed. Meanwhile, the administration has actively pursued modernizing the triad (bombers, missiles, and submarines) and the U.S. nuclear arsenal. On the arms control front, Trump has called out Putin for cheating on the INF treaty. Furthermore, in response, Washington withdrew from that agreement this year. It is also likely that, if re-elected, Trump will withdraw the United States from the New START—a treaty that unfairly advantages the Russians. None of this means that Trump is anti-arms control or wants a new arms race. Rather, he is following Reagan's proven formula of defense. He wants to show a credible nuclear deterrent and then set about putting into place arms control agreements that actually reduce threats.Here is the Trumpian wrinkle. Trump knows there is no hope of erecting a realistic global arms control regime that doesn't include China. The size, scope, and future of China's nuclear arsenal are nothing if not opaque. Given that China is now a global power with global interests, that reality alone ought to be concerning. Gaining greater transparency on China's arsenal will be key to achieving strategic stability in the future.Washington also has to think about its allies. Extended deterrence is a key component of the U.S. security umbrella in Europe and an important factor in regional stability. This will be increasingly true in the Indo-Pacific as well, where American key strategic partners and allies include Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and India.China's arsenal ought to be troubling Russia as well because both countries possess a lot of nuclear weapons that can reach each other. Though Beijing and Moscow cooperate today, the China-Russia détente may be much less stable than many believe. Having an arms control regime without the three largest powers participating makes about as much sense as having two musketeers. It's anachronistic to think a U.S.-Russia strategic agreement alone will seriously contribute to stability, let alone to reductions in nuclear forces.Bold FutureOne can make the case that Beijing has zero interest in U.S.-Russian-Chinese arms control—and today that makes sense. There is also an argument that we should not expect Putin to be reasonable on these issues anytime soon, which is also the case.But none of this is to say that working towards a global arms control framework is a bad idea. Arguably now is exactly the right time to start thinking about what this framework might look like, what it might accomplish, how it might be implemented. Don't expect bold moves from either Moscow or Beijing until they know if Trump is coming back. If he doesn't, they won't know exactly what they will be dealing with. If he does come back, they know very well what to expect.If Trump is successful in resetting the geopolitical table in great power competition, one could envision a future time when it would make sense for both Russia and China to limit nuclear competition rather than enter a debilitating arms race that they well might lose. When that moment comes, America should be ready. Trump is setting the stage for that future.A Heritage Foundation vice president, James Jay Carafano directs the think tank's research into matters of national security and foreign affairs.Image: Reuters
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| How the Crisis with Iran May Have More Lasting Consequences than the Iraq War Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:33 AM PDT  The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq was deeply opposed by key U.S. allies like France and Germany, who, while they agreed with the U.S. judgment regarding the villainy of Saddam Hussein, disagreed vehemently with the use of military force to solve the problem. The result was a precipitous decline in transatlantic relations, to the point that several U.S. representatives directed congressional cafeterias to rename French fries "Freedom Fries." As tensions continue to escalate due to President Donald Trump's high-stakes brinkmanship with Iran, the United States risks another, more serious, break with its European allies—one that could permanently injure U.S. financial power.The invasion of Iraq led to a crisis in the transatlantic relationship because France and Germany vehemently opposed the use of force to prevent Iraq from obtaining weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Instead, seeking to use diplomacy, they questioned the evidence of Iraqi WMD development and the U.S. claim that installing a democratic government would lead to a flourishing of democracy in the region. As a result, a narrative of Franco-German—"Old Europe"—betrayal developed in the United States, and European support for U.S. leadership on the world stage plummeted in opinion polls. While the invasion created divisions among European countries at the time, sixteen years later Europeans nearly unanimously regard the invasion as a mistake and a misguided example of U.S. unilateralism.The United States, the European Union, and Iran have been building to the current moment since before the 2016 U.S. presidential election. But Iran's recent breach of the maximum level of uranium enrichment mandated by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its seizure of British oil tankers, combined with U.S. troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia for the first time since the Iraq War, have raised the stakes and transatlantic tensions ever further.As a candidate, Trump repeatedly criticized the JCPOA signed under the Obama administration to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, echoing claims that the agreement was too narrow and not tough enough. For Europeans, the agreement was a success due to its limited aims and bought time for further negotiations. Trump's announcement on May 8, 2018, that the United States would formally leave the JCPOA and unilaterally reimpose broad economic sanctions was roundly criticized by France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia. These countries announced their determination to stick to the deal. The year following Trump's announcement has been marked by escalating U.S. pressure on Iran, matched by increasingly desperate European attempts to save the deal.Almost immediately after the U.S. withdrawal, French finance minister Bruno Le Maire sought to find ways around U.S. sanctions, suggesting that the European Union could use a blocking statute to protect European companies from U.S. secondary sanctions. In August 2018, German foreign minister Heiko Maas called for Europe to act as a counterweight to the United States and advocated for the creation of a European payments mechanism akin to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system. In September 2018, European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini announced the creation of a "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) to allow European companies to bypass U.S. sanctions and continue trading with Iran, in hopes of maintaining the deal. The SPV was later formed officially as the Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) and recently became fully operational. Going yet further, the European Commission presented steps in December 2018 to increase the role of the euro in global payments. As noted by the commission, European businesses trade using the U.S. dollar—thus tying them to the U.S. financial system and exposing them to U.S. sanctions or "unilateral decisions that directly affect dollar denominated transactions" in the Commission's parlance.Comparisons between the current crisis with Iran and the Iraq War have been made, but the risk that this dispute poses for the transatlantic alliance may be larger still. Admittedly, European companies have complied with U.S. sanctions despite the offer of the EU's blocking statute. Chancellor Angela Merkel quashed Maas's call for a European SWIFT, and INSTEX remains largely symbolic with no companies using it—and little expectation from the U.S. side that companies will use it to trade in sanctioned goods. But that these measures were proposed in the first place is of huge importance.Even if war or the collapse of the Iranian regime is avoided, either of which could spur on another migration crisis, American sanctions directed at Iran have greatly affected European business and security interests. To protect both, Europe has threatened measures that would, if carried out fully, begin a process of unwinding the global economic integration that has proceeded since the end of World War II. Such steps would strike at the heart of U.S. economic power by shifting trade and financial transactions away from the United States and provoke a potentially extreme U.S. response.But unlike Iraq, a split over Iran could be a turning point for much more than just the transatlantic relationship. The creation of an alternative financial architecture as threatened by the EU could not only lead to a financial balkanization along political lines, as countries that disagree with U.S. policies could much more easily skirt U.S. sanctions, but also to greater difficulties in coordinating responses to future global financial crises. Beyond renaming cafeteria food, the current transatlantic divide over Iran could usher in a new and more unstable era in global politics. Sam Denney is a 2019 Europe Fellow with Young Professionals in Foreign Policy. Prior to YPFP, he worked as an intern for the Europe Practice at the Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington, DC, for the European Union Affairs unit at the State Chancellery of North Rhine-Westphalia in Düsseldorf, and for the Committee on Affairs of the European Union in the German Bundestag in Berlin. He received an MA in German and European Studies from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service in 2018 and a BA in German and European Studies from Vanderbilt University in 2014. Twitter handle: @samddenneyImage: Reuters
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| Solving the Iran Crisis Requires A "Deal of the Century" With Tehran Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:33 AM PDT  On August 13, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei met with Houthi representatives in Tehran in what was a rare overt display of support. Since the Yemeni civil war began in 2015, Iran had kept the Houthis at arm's length. However, recent divisions within the Saudi coalition and the Houthis' success establishing themselves in Yemen changed the calculus. The public meeting was a clear sign of strengthening ties between Iran and the Houthis in the face of a divided adversary.Yemen isn't the only unstable nation-state in the region where the Iranians have gained major leverage. From Beirut to Kabul, Iran has managed to become a player of increasing significance. This is why it is as critical as ever for the United States to move beyond its animosity with Iran and move towards high-level diplomacy—regional allies included—in order to stabilize the region enough for the United States to be able to end its forever wars. The nuclear deal and the immediate need to deescalate tensions in the Persian Gulf should just be the beginning—not the ultimate goal. At the end of the day, Iran's regional role is essential to the United States pivoting away from the region and turning its attention to more pressing global matters better aligned with its actual interests. Iran's Growing RoleIn Syria, dictator Bashar al-Assad remains comfortably in power with the continued support of Russia and Iran, despite an inability to secure the country with the presence of foreign troops and rebels. In fact, Iran has transitioned to exploring economic opportunities in Syria. Instead of negotiating with the major players involved, the Trump administration continues to work with a limited number of allies that only extends its entrenchment in Syria. The latest example is Washington's agreement with Turkey to create a safe zone. A continued stalemate where the United States is working against the goals of Russia and Iran is not only a problematic result for the Syrian people, but it leaves the United States with what could become years of military maneuvering with limited results and no end in sight.Meanwhile in Afghanistan, the Trump administration is closing in on an agreement with the Taliban that would allow the United States to decrease its presence in the country after eighteen years of fighting. However, Iran too has held its own talks with the Taliban as it became Afghanistan's largest trading partner in 2018. The economic ties between the two countries were significant enough for the Trump administration to issue sanctions waivers for Iran's Chabahar port because of its economic relevance for Afghanistan.The story of Iran's ever-increasing leverage in regional conflict zones is a consistent one. From Tehran's influence over Shia militias and economic ties in Iraq, to Hezbollah in Lebanon to cultural and historic ties in Afghanistan, Iran has pursued its regional interests effectively. The key question remains how the Trump administration plans to continue isolating Iran and maneuver around it in each context.Lost OpportunityWhen the Obama administration signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, the nuclear issue with Iran was solved. This diplomatic opening between Washington and Tehran that resulted from negotiations was unheard of since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. After all, it was this opening, specifically between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, which led to the safe release of American sailors by Iran in January 2016. However, instead of using the opening to move towards discussions on other issues with Tehran, the Obama administration felt the political costs in Washington, where the status quo was built on anti-Iranian hysteria, were too great to move forward. The nuclear deal became the end result—missile sanctions were subsequently placed on Iran, weapons were sold to Saudi Arabia for its disastrous war in Yemen, and Congress passed a ten-year extension of the Iran Sanctions Act. Clearly, diplomatic capital was being burned for domestic purposes.With the election of President Donald Trump, the appointment of National Security Adviser John Bolton, and the subsequent "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, the dream of real détente between Tehran and Washington has been long gone. However, it remains a reality that the United States and Iran need high-level diplomacy in order to deescalate tensions not only with one another, but across the Middle East.DiplomacyCurrently, U.S.-Iran tensions are at an all-time high. The Trump administration is advocating for a U.S. naval coalition in the Persian Gulf, both Iran and the United States have shot down one another's drones, and a diplomatic off-ramp has been closed now that sanctions have been placed on Zarif—Iran's top diplomat. If anything, this encourages Iran to acquire more leverage in the region in order to prevent a war—especially in the case of Syria and Lebanon, where Hezbollah have gained a foothold and could respond in the case of an attack on Iran.Meanwhile, the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign has backfired not only among European allies frustrated about pulling out of the Iran deal, but in the Middle East as well. The UAE not only gave a tepid response to Iran's alleged attack against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, but it also sent officials for maritime security talks to Tehran—a first since 2013. U.S. allies do not want to be collateral in another voluntary war in the Middle East. Instead of shortsightedly celebrating weapon sales over avoiding another forever war, Washington should be encouraging regional diplomacy and even a Persian Gulf security framework in order to deescalate tensions.Now, it's important to be aware that Iran's regional leverage does not necessarily mean that everything is going smoothly for Tehran. For example, the Iraqis are questioning the influence of the Iran-backed Shia militias, Assad remains at a relative stalemate as Iran's partners in Syria—Turkey and Russia—pursue their own agendas, and sanctions are taking a toll.However, the plan to isolate Iran only disempowers Iranian civil society and democratic movement while leaving Iran's leverage in the region intact. It's simply counterproductive. The United States could continue to work with its limited supply of regional allies to maneuver around Iran, but at the end of the day it will be an agreement (or a series of agreements) with Iran that will actually move the United States closer to closing the book on multiple fronts. If President Trump or a future administration is serious about avoiding another war and ending its current regional engagements, it must look beyond simply attaining a nuclear deal with Iran—Washington needs to realize the positive ramifications that could only come after thorough innovative, high-level diplomacy. Shahed Ghoreishi is a U.S. foreign policy analyst. He's a graduate of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. You can follow him on Twitter @shahedghoreishi. Image: Reuters
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| UPDATE 1-UK PM Johnson to seek Oct. 14 election if rebels block his Brexit plan - source Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:32 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-UK PM Johnson to seek Oct. 14 election if rebels block his Brexit plan - source]( "UPDATE 1-UK PM Johnson to seek Oct. 14 election if rebels block his Brexit plan - source") British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will move to call an Oct. 14 election if lawmakers block the option of leaving the European Union without a deal, a senior government source said on Monday. Lawmakers are expected to vote on Tuesday on a plan that would give members of parliament who are opposed to Johnson's Brexit strategy control of the parliamentary agenda. If that group is successful in defeating the government, the source said Johnson would then take the first step to calling an election -- presenting a motion to parliament calling for one.
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| X-37B: America's Space Plane (Or Warplane?) That Has the World Guessing Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:30 AM PDT  The last "sexy" theory is that the space plane is basically a spy satellite with the ability to return to Earth and have its optical sensors periodically upgraded. The X-37 has orbited over some interesting locations, including North Korea, China, ISIS-held territory and Iran. U.S. optical spy satellites are, however, quite large—the size of a school bus—and the X-37's payload bay is far too small.A mysterious space plane has spent more than 670 days above Earth, hurtling along an orbital path that includes some of the world's most volatile hotspots. Known the X-37B, the U.S. Air Force's unmanned mini-shuttle whizzes along an average of two hundred miles above the surface of the Earth. Exactly what it's doing up there is bit of a mystery.(This first appeared several years ago.)The space plane that would eventually become the X-37B was originally conceived of by NASA in 1999. The Space Shuttle program had failed to bring down the per-pound cost of ferrying a payload to orbit, but a smaller, unmanned aircraft using newer technologies might prove more economical. Boeing's Phantom Works division was given a four-year contract to develop the X-37 in conjunction with NASA, followed up in 2002 with a new agreement to develop an Approach and Landing Test Vehicle to test horizontal landing concepts. Once successful, that would be followed up with an actual Orbital Test Vehicle, a launch into space, and a Space Shuttle–like landing.In 2004 NASA transferred the X-37 program to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, known as DARPA. The ALTV vehicle successfully tested out atmospheric flight concepts, but NASA's OTV space plane was never built. Instead, the U.S. Air Force built its own OTV space plane along the same lines. In fact, it built at least two.The X-37 is lifted into space by a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket using Russian-supplied RD-180 liquid-fuel rocket boosters. It sits at the top of the rocket, encased in an aerodynamic payload fairing. The X-37 is twenty-nine feet, three inches long, with a wingspan of fourteen feet, eleven inches; it weighs five tons at launch. Its payload bay is seven feet long by seven feet wide—about the same as a pickup truck. In orbit, the space plane is powered by gallium arsenide solar cells with lithium-ion batteries.According to the Air Force, the space plane tests a variety of technologies, including "advanced guidance, navigation and control, thermal protection systems, avionics, high temperature structures and seals, conformal reusable insulation, lightweight electromechanical flight systems, advanced propulsion systems and autonomous orbital flight, reentry and landing." The missions are run on the ground by Third Space Experimentation Squadron at Schriever Air Force Base in Colorado.The first space plane flight, OTV-1, launched from Cape Canaveral on April 22, 2010 on an Atlas V named AV-012. The web site NASA Spaceflight speculated that the spacecraft was carrying a payload of "technology demonstration and development experiments" for the Air Force's Rapid Capabilities Office. OTV-1 would spend 224 days in space.The X-37 was originally designed to spend up to nine months in space, but the Air Force quickly pushed beyond that threshold. The second mission, OTV-2 was the first flight of the second X-37B, and lasted from March 5, 2011 to June 16, 2012, a total of 469 days. OTV-3 was launched in December 2012 and returned on October 17, 2014, for a total of 675 days.OTV-4 was launched on May 20, 2015, and has been up in space ever since.What are the X-37s doing up there? There have been all sorts of theories. One theory was that the X-37 has been sidling up to the military satellites of potential adversaries such as China and Russia, examining them and even returning to American soil with them safely tucked into the payload bay. While this Blofeld-style act of orbital grand theft fires the imagination, the truth is that the X-37's orbit is fairly easy to track and such a heist would take place literally in front of the entire planet.Other theories are that the X-37 is a form of nuclear space bomber, loaded with nuclear bombs or even "Rods from God"—kinetic energy projectiles dropped from space that accelerate to hypersonic speeds, obliterating their targets on Earth. Parked in orbit for months at a time, the X-37 could provide a quick means of delivering devastation, faster than ICBM and more difficult to detect.The last "sexy" theory is that the space plane is basically a spy satellite with the ability to return to Earth and have its optical sensors periodically upgraded. The X-37 has orbited over some interesting locations, including North Korea, China, ISIS-held territory and Iran. U.S. optical spy satellites are, however, quite large—the size of a school bus—and the X-37's payload bay is far too small.The most likely purpose for the X-37B is simply to do space research. The payloads of earlier missions remain unknown. According to the Air Force, OTV-4 is testing Hall thruster electric propulsion systems, the same systems used on the Pentagon's Advanced Extremely High Frequency communications satellite. Hall thrusters use a magnetic field to accelerate the ions in a propellant, producing thrust. Hall thrusters are used to adjust the orbits of satellites and are a "serious candidate" to power ships to Mars. OTV-4 is also carrying one hundred NASA-supplied materials to see how they hold up to the rigors of long-term space travel. Could it be up to even more things? It's possible, but they'd have to be physically small.While it may not be doing any satellite snatching, the X-37B program provides the Air Force with a flying, returnable test bed for testing new technologies, a capability no other country has at this point. Even if it isn't carrying out any cloak-and-dagger missions, it's still performing a valuable service that will advance American space technology.Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national-security writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in the Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and the Daily Beast. In 2009, he cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. You can follow him on Twitter: @KyleMizokami.
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| Johnson Threatens Oct. 14 Election Over No-Deal: Brexit Update Posted: 02 Sep 2019 11:29 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. Boris Johnson is planning for a general election on Oct. 14 if he loses a crucial vote over a no-deal Brexit in Parliament this week, a senior U.K. official said. The prime minister said he will not delay leaving the European Union in a speech after a short-notice meeting with his cabinet. Members of Parliament are planning to pass legislation to force the prime minister to delay Brexit until Jan. 31 unless he can get a new agreement with the European Union by mid-October.Key Developments:Johnson will start process for Oct. 14 general election if he loses No-deal Brexit vote in Parliament, a senior U.K. official saysJohnson met with his cabinet over expected House of Commons rebellionCross-party alliance of MPs draws up plan to seize the agenda in Parliament on Tuesday to force through legislation blocking a no-deal divorcePound falls by as much as 0.98%Johnson Planning For Oct. 14 election: Official (7:15 p.m.)Boris Johnson will start the process for calling a general election on October 14 if his government loses a vote intended to block a no-deal Brexit, a U.K. official said.If the House of Commons votes this week to order the prime minister to delay Brexit until Jan. 31, Johnson will propose a motion under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act for a general election.For an election to be called, that motion would need to be supported by at least two-thirds of MPs.Johnson: 'No Circumstances' I Would Ask for Delay (6:07 p.m.)Boris Johnson said the chances of a new Brexit deal with Brussels by Oct. 31 are increasing as he made a pitch for MPs to support the government against a rebel motion opposing a no-deal Brexit on Tuesday. If Parliament blocks a no-deal divorce, it will weaken the U.K.'s negotiating position, he said."I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay," he said. "We're leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts. We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or to scrub that referendum.""Let's let our negotiators get on with their work, without that sword of Damocles over their necks and without an election," he said. "I don't want an election. You don't want an election," he added, hinting that one might be necessary if Parliament doesn't get behind his plan.Johnson to Make Public Statement (5.45 p.m.)Johnson will make a public statement at 6 p.m. on Monday, his office said.No-Deal Opponents Publish Draft Bill (5.30 p.m.)A cross-party group of MPs led by Philip Hammond and Hilary Benn published a draft bill that they'll use to try and prevent a no-deal Brexit. It would require Johnson to extend exit day to Jan. 31 if he doesn't either reach a deal with the EU that's approved by Parliament or secure Parliament's agreement for leaving the bloc with no deal.A motion will be used on Tuesday to take control of the order paper from 3 p.m. the following day. That's after Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid's Spending Review.They'll then debate a four-page bill that demands the government meet one of the two conditions by Oct. 19. If neither condition is met, the prime minister must write to the EU to ask for a three-month extension to negotiations, the motion says.Tory Rebels Asked Johnson to Reassure Markets (4:20 p.m.)The 21 potential Tory rebels who were due to meet Johnson on Monday (see 3:35 p.m.) asked him to reassure the currency markets by confirming he was still committed to a deal with the EU in a letter dated Aug. 12 made public today.The letter, signed by Hammond and former cabinet ministers Rory Stewart, David Lidington, David Gauke and Greg Clark, said they were "alarmed" by Johnson's Brexit red lines, which "appear to eliminate" the chances of striking a deal with Brussels."We would therefore greatly appreciate your confirmation that you remain committed to doing a deal, that you accept any such deal will require compromise and that it remains your view that the chance of No Deal is 'less than a million to one'," they said, quoting his line during the leadership campaign. "This will reassure not only us, but also the currency markets."Hammond Demands Answers from Johnson (3:25 p.m.)Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond wrote to Boris Johnson to demand answers about his progress on a Brexit deal after the prime minister canceled a meeting with 21 potential Tory rebels scheduled for Monday.Hammond, who has said he'll do everything he can to stop a no-deal Brexit, asked the premier to provide specific details of his talks with the EU and explain how he thinks he's closer to a new agreement. He also asked Johnson to publish his proposals to replace the Irish border backstop and any other revisions to the Withdrawal Agreement before Parliament reconvenes on Tuesday.Johnson has tried to convince Tory MPs that he's close to agreeing a deal with the bloc to stop them voting against him. Hammond said in his letter that many of the 21 Tories due to attend the meeting had planned to decide their next steps after hearing from the prime minister.Details of Rebel Plan Emerge (3:15 p.m.)Details of the rebel plans to stop a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 by pushing legislation through Parliament are beginning to emerge.Two people familiar with the draft law told Bloomberg it would compel Johnson to seek a three-month delay if he's been unable to get a new Brexit deal through the House of Commons by Oct. 19 or to persuade lawmakers to back a no-deal departure.That would set Jan. 31 as the new deadline for Brexit.Goldman Sachs Weighs in on Election Speculation (2:45 p.m.)There is still scope for an election on or around Oct. 17 if Boris Johnson "decides this week that a pre-Brexit general election is his best response to a legislative lock on "no deal," Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors.Its view is that going down that route would be difficult, as it would require more than 100 opposition MPs to garner the necessary two-thirds majority. Goldman said the price those opposition lawmakers would charge would be to see "concrete evidence that PM Johnson has already sought EU permission for an Article 50 extension beyond 31 October.""Traditionally, the date of a general election is in the gift of the prime minister," the note said. "In our view, it would be sub optimal for Labour MPs to allow the Conservative government to call an October election that characterizes the Labour front-bench as a Brexit saboteur. That said, the Labour leadership would certainly find itself in a difficult position."Irish PM Says Unionist Proposals Interesting (2:20 p.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signaled his willingness to consider alternatives to the backstop, by describing some proposals from the Ulster Unionist Party as "interesting."The UUP proposals include the creation of a criminal offense of transporting non-compliant goods through the U.K. to the EU, and creating a cross-border trade body, the BBC reported.While Varadkar told reporters these wouldn't solve all the problems at the frontier, they shouldn't be dismissed "out of hand."Johnson Election Threat in Bid to Quell Rebellion (1:05 p.m.)Boris Johnson would treat a vote in Parliament to block a no-deal Brexit as a vote of no-confidence in his government, according to a person familiar with his thinking, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private.Johnson's official spokesman, James Slack, said on Monday morning that Johnson doesn't want an election.Under British conventions, a vote of no-confidence can trigger a general election and the fact that Johnson is invoking these conventions suggests he has his eye on a snap poll.As the timetable currently stands, the next election is not due until 2022. If he wanted to hold an election early, Johnson would need to win the support of members of Parliament in a special vote.Johnson Convenes Meeting of Cabinet (12:30 p.m.)Boris Johnson will meet his cabinet ministers for talks as he draws up plans to counter a threat by parliamentarians to block a no-deal split from the EU.A government official confirmed a BBC report that the cabinet will meet later on Monday. The BBC also said one option -- among many under discussion -- could be for Johnson to call for a snap general election later this week.Varadkar, Johnson Could Meet Next Week (12:20 p.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he may meet with Boris Johnson next week, with two possible dates being worked on.Speaking to reporters, Varadkar said he's always ready to listen to potential U.K. proposals to break the Brexit impasse.Labour Could Back Leave in Repeat Referendum (11:55 a.m.)Jeremy Corbyn left his options open for a second referendum, reiterating the party wouldn't necessarily back Remain if the government brought back a deal from Brussels.Asked if he could support a Labour leave position in a ballot, Corbyn said Labour would only definitely back Remain if the alternative was a no-deal split from the EU.Labour would include the promise of a public vote in its next manifesto, Corbyn said. "If it's no-deal then we will vote to Remain, if it's any other deal then our party's democratic process will decide what position we take," he told his audience in Salford.Corbyn has been reluctant to turn Labour into the anti-Brexit party, though he has vowed to do everything he can to prevent a no-deal exit from the bloc.Johnson's Drinks With MPs As Showdown Looms (11:45 a.m.)Boris Johnson will host his Conservative colleagues at a drinks reception on Monday evening ahead of a statement to Parliament on Tuesday, his spokesman James Slack told reporters.Slack said it would be "entirely unreasonable" for members of Parliament -- who rejected Theresa May's deal three times -- to bind the prime minister's hands by blocking a no-deal Brexit just as he goes into fresh negotiations with the EU.It's another warning to potential Conservative rebels after they were threatened with deselection if they break ranks. Johnson himself voted against May's deal.Corbyn: 'Last Chance' to Stop No Deal Brexit (11:35 a.m.)Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn warned that this week could be the last chance to prevent a no-deal breakup with the EU. Speaking in Salford, northwest England, Corbyn said he's finalizing plans with other members of Parliament for how to stop Johnson pushing ahead."We must come together to stop no deal," Corbyn said. "This week could be our last chance. We are working with other parties to do everything necessary to pull our country back from the brink."After stopping Johnson, Britain needs a general election, Corbyn said. In a rehearsal for that election campaign, he framed his argument in wider political terms, repeatedly portraying Johnson and his Tory party as friends of a wealthy elite who won't pay the price of a no-deal split from the EU.Rees-Mogg Accuses Doctor Of 'Fear-mongering,' (10:30 a.m.)In a bad-tempered exchange on LBC radio Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg was asked by a doctor involved in planning for a no-deal Brexit what level of patient mortality he would be happy to accept.In reply Rees-Mogg accused the doctor of "fear-mongering," adding "I don't think there is any reason to suppose a no-deal Brexit should lead to a mortality rate; this is the worst excess of Project Fear."No-Deal a 95% Chance if Parliament Fails, Gauke Says (Earlier)Former Justice Secretary David Gauke said there's a 95% chance of a No-Deal split with the EU on Oct. 31 if Parliament fails to pass legislation blocking it.The former minister, who voted three times for Theresa May's deal with the EU and favors leaving with an agreement, accused Boris Johnson of "goading people to vote against the government" as part of a strategy aimed at provoking a general election.Gauke told the BBC that Johnson's adviser Dominic Cummings, who isn't a member of the Conservative Party, is behind the "unusual" and "confrontational" strategy. There has been no approach to rebels to persuade them to change their minds, just threats of being thrown out of the party and banned as election candidates, he said.No-Deal Opponents Coalesce Around Short Extension (Earlier)Opponents of a no-deal Brexit have coalesced around a short extension to Britain's membership as this week's goal, former Tory Lawmaker Nick Boles told BBC radio.Rebel Tories and opposition MPs want to pass a law requiring Johnson to seek an extension -- assuming he can't get a revised deal or persuade Parliament to back a no-deal Brexit by Oct. 31, Boles said.According to Boles, the extension wouldn't be more than "a few more months." That's "not long enough crucially for a referendum, so this is not an attempt to somehow sneak a second referendum in," he said.Chuka Umunna, a Liberal Democrat who quit the Labour Party earlier this year, agreed that stopping a no-deal Brexit is this week's goal, but his party sees it as a stepping stone to stopping Brexit altogether.Long-Bailey Says Bill Designed for Broad Appeal (Earlier)Rebecca Long-Bailey, Business spokeswoman for the opposition Labour Party, said a proposed bill aimed at blocking a no-deal split from the EU -- which she said will be introduced on Tuesday -- will be kept "as short and simple as possible" to give it broad appeal across the political spectrum in Parliament.This week is the "last chance" to stop a "disastrous" no-deal divorce, she told BBC Radio.Earlier:U.K. INSIGHT: How Boris Johnson Could Ruffle the Housing MarketFate of Brexit Is Up in the Air as Johnson Delivers SurprisesJohnson Is Campaigning Again, But What Exactly Is He Selling?\--With assistance from Dara Doyle, Flavia Krause-Jackson, Tim Ross, Alex Morales and Kitty Donaldson.To contact the reporters on this story: Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net;Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Thomas Penny, Caroline AlexanderFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| As UN body wraps up in Guatemala, fears for anti-graft fight Posted: 02 Sep 2019 10:52 AM PDT  For over a decade, the work of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala brought the Central American nation hope that corruption could be fought. Now, as the end of its mandate nears, many fear a setback in the fight against impunity. The U.N. commission known as Cicig for its initials in Spanish, which brought to trial three ex-presidents and hundreds of businesspeople, officials, judges and civilians accused of corruption, will shut down Sept. 3 after the government of President Jimmy Morales decided not to renew its mandate.
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| Brazil's Bolsonaro wants to discuss Amazon fires at UN Posted: 02 Sep 2019 10:40 AM PDT  Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said Monday he was eager to speak about the Amazon fires that have drawn world attention at the next U.N. General Assembly in September, as the issue appeared to erode his support at home. Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia that he wanted to speak "with patriotism" about the Amazon, a region he said was ignored by previous administrations. "I will not accept alms from any country in the world under the pretext of preserving the Amazon when it is being divided into lots and sold," the far-right president said.
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| UN criticises transfer of 1,600 displaced Iraqis Posted: 02 Sep 2019 10:11 AM PDT  The United Nations on Monday criticised Iraqi authorities for transferring around 1,600 people from camps to their areas of origin, saying the returns could put them in danger. The returnees, who fled violence during and after the Islamic State group's 2014 seizure of swathes of Iraq, had sought refuge at displacement camps in the northern province of Nineweh. Since August 23, Iraqi authorities have bussed about 300 families, an estimated 1,600 people, from the three camps to their provinces of origin.
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| I don't want an election, says UK PM Johnson as he urges against Brexit delay Posted: 02 Sep 2019 10:10 AM PDT ![I don't want an election, says UK PM Johnson as he urges against Brexit delay]( "I don't want an election, says UK PM Johnson as he urges against Brexit delay") British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday he did not want an election as he called on lawmakers not to vote for a further delay to Brexit. Lawmakers plan to try to seize parliamentary time on Wednesday to pass legislation which would force Johnson to ask for an extension to Britain's exit from the European Union, currently due to take place on Oct. 31. "If they do (vote for a delay), they will plainly chop the legs out from under the UK position and make any further negotiation absolutely impossible," Johnson said in a statement in front of his Downing Street office.
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| Hezbollah TV airs footage it says shows anti-Israel attack Posted: 02 Sep 2019 09:42 AM PDT  Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV on Monday aired footage it said showed an missile attack by the Iran-backed Lebanese group against an Israeli military vehicle the day before. "The first Kornet anti-tank missile is launched at the target and then, from another position, a second missile is fired to ensure the target is destroyed," a voiceover said. The target, which Hezbollah identified as a Wolf armoured vehicle, was 1.5 kilometres (one mile) from the Lebanese-Israeli frontier and four kilometres from the launch site of the first missile, Al-Manar said.
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| Fighting Over Grazing Land Is Spreading to Nigeria’s South Posted: 02 Sep 2019 09:41 AM PDT ![Fighting Over Grazing Land Is Spreading to Nigeria's South]( "Fighting Over Grazing Land Is Spreading to Nigeria's South") (Bloomberg) -- Fighting between farmers and cattle herders in Nigeria is spreading from the center to the south and fueled by a proliferation of weapons, according to a United Nations envoy. "Nigeria needs urgent action to end the pressure cooker of violence, which is claiming thousands of lives," Agnes Callamard, UN Special Rapporteur on Extra-Judicial Executions, told reporters Monday in the capital, Abuja. "Poverty and climate change are adding to these issues."The government of Africa's most populous nation has been struggling to halt tit-for-tat attacks between farming and herding communities in the so-called Middle Belt. The conflict led to an estimated 2,000 deaths last year, more than the number of people killed by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram. As the Sahara desert advances southward, herders who traditionally grazed their cattle on plains in the semi-arid Sahel zone are moving into central and southern Nigeria to find grazing land, where they clash with farming communities. Most herders are Muslim and ethnic Fulanis, while farmers are predominantly Christian, which adds an ethnic and religious dimension to the conflict.Other countries in the Sahel are experiencing the same phenomenon. Burkina Faso and Mali each recently recorded some of the worst massacres in decades. Callamard, who concluded a visit to Nigeria and will issue a report later, also blamed "toxic narratives" for the violence.To contact the reporter on this story: Dulue Mbachu in Abuja at dmbachu@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Richardson at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net, Pauline Bax, Hilton ShoneFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| AfD call for place in regional coalition talks rebuffed Posted: 02 Sep 2019 09:21 AM PDT  The nationalist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has called to be included in regional coalition negotiations after making gains in elections at the weekend. But Germany's mainstream parties on Monday refused to consider any form of alliance with what they regard as a party of the far-Right. "We are setting the agenda," Alexander Gauland, the AfD leader, claimed after his party came second in regional elections in the states of Brandenburg and Saxony. "In Brandenburg, we are the only real bourgeois opposition. I am confident that a bourgeois coalition will prevail, if not in the short term, then in the medium term." "There will be no cooperation with the AfD," Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat party (CDU) said. "We fight for every voter, but the same time we are holding to our course of clear demarcation from the AfD." "Large sections of Saxony and Brandenburg have chosen a far-right party with the AfD," Lars Klingebeil, party chairman of Mrs Merkel's main coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), said. "Our task at the SPD is now to see the AfD off. It is the laziest party in Germany and has nothing serious to offer." Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat party (CDU), ruled out any cooperation with the AfD Credit: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Markus Söder, the leader of Mrs Merkel's Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), invoked his party's most famous former leader as he rejected any alliance with the AfD. "Franz Josef Strauss would have fought the AfD to the death, and that is what we will do," he said. The AfD made significant gains in Sunday's elections but its claim to a place at coalition talks was undermined after it failed to come first in either state. In Saxony its challenge was held off by the CDU while the SPD made a last-minute comeback to hold first place in Brandenburg. The Central Council of Jews in Germany, which accused the AfD of stirring up hatred against minorities in the run-up to the elections, on Monday warned against complacency over the result. "It would be disastrous to sit back and go on as before just because the AfD didn't come first," Josef Schuster, the council's president said. The mainstream parties now face complicated talks to build coalitions in the states' fragmented regional parliaments. In Brandenburg the SPD is expected to pursue a three-way coalition with the Greens and the Left Party, while in Saxony the CDU is believed to be considering a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
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| Revealed: How a secret Dutch mole aided the U.S.-Israeli Stuxnet cyberattack on Iran Posted: 02 Sep 2019 09:00 AM PDT  For years, an enduring mystery has surrounded the Stuxnet virus attack that targeted Iran's nuclear program: How did the U.S. and Israel get their malware onto computer systems at the highly secured uranium-enrichment plant?
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| U.K. Election Threat Looms as Johnson Fights Tory Brexit Rebels Posted: 02 Sep 2019 08:57 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. The U.K. moved a step closer to a general election as the political crisis engulfing the country over its divorce from the European Union deepened. The pound fell 0.8%.Allies of Prime Minister Boris Johnson are considering a snap poll as he battles his opponents in Parliament who are trying to stop him taking the U.K. out of the EU without a deal on Oct. 31.Talk of an early election highlights the make-or-break nature of this week for Johnson's leadership and for the country as a whole. Since he became prime minister in July, Johnson has made it his mission to prepare the U.K. to leave the EU by the Oct. 31 deadline even if that means tumbling out of the 28-country bloc with no deal to cushion the blow to trade.Here's How Parliament Is Plotting to Stop a No-Deal BrexitMany politicians inside his own Conservative Party are unwilling to go along with this plan, believing it will hit the economy, sparking a recession and a crash in the currency and house prices. They have been trying to work out a way to stop the premier forcing through a no-deal Brexit that would damage the economy and leave businesses and citizens facing legal chaos.Johnson's opponents are now ready to act. They are drafting a new law to force the prime minister to delay Brexit by three months to the end of January 2020 if he fails to negotiate a new deal with the EU by the Halloween deadline. These opposition and rebel Tory politicians will try to rush their plan through Parliament on an emergency timetable this week.For his part, Johnson stepped up his fightback on Monday. His aides threatened to fire any Conservative politicians who join the revolt against his policy and ban them from standing as Tories in future.Read more: Pound falls in fresh Brexit tumultAccording to a person familiar with Johnson's thinking, the premier will fight to defeat the rebel plan, but if he fails, the government could trigger a general election.Johnson will treat defeat as if the government has suffered a vote of no confidence in its abilities to negotiate Brexit, the person said. That is a heavy hint that Johnson is considering throwing in the towel and calling an election if he loses this week's crunch vote in the House of Commons.Johnson called a meeting of his cabinet ministers for Monday evening, and is also due to meet his party's members of Parliament for drinks in his 10 Downing Street offices.'Entirely unreasonable'The premier's spokesman James Slack said it would be "entirely unreasonable" for MPs -- who rejected Theresa May's Brexit divorce deal three times -- to bind the new prime minister's hands by blocking a no-deal Brexit just as he goes into fresh negotiations with the EU.The forces ranged against Johnson span all the major parties in Britain's Parliament. They include senior Conservative politicians such as former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, the official Labour opposition, and smaller opposition parties.Johnson's opponents are expected to try to take control over parliamentary business on Tuesday before debating their draft law forcing him to seek a Brexit delay on Wednesday. Under their draft law, Johnson will be forced to ask the EU for an extension to the Article 50 negotiating period until Jan. 31 if he has not secured a new deal -- or won parliamentary backing for a no-deal split -- by a deadline of Oct. 19.Race against the clockThe chances of this plan making it into law will rest on a race against the clock. Johnson has announced he will suspend Parliament for a month from Sept. 12, in a move seen as an attempt to stop his opponents passing a bill to thwart his no-deal Brexit plans.Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn warned that this week's votes in Parliament could be the last chance to prevent Johnson taking the U.K. out of the EU without an agreement. "We must come together to stop no deal," Corbyn said. "This week could be our last chance. We are working with other parties to do everything necessary to pull our country back from the brink."(Updates with pound falling in first paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.net;Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net;Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Robert Hutton, Caroline AlexanderFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Pound Falls as Investors Brace for Brexit Fight or Snap Election Posted: 02 Sep 2019 08:29 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. The pound fell to the lowest level in three weeks as a showdown between U.K. lawmakers over Brexit loomed large.Sterling was the worst performer among its Group-of-10 peers as Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to kick out Conservative lawmakers who vote to block a no-deal Brexit, with his allies even raising the prospect of a snap election.U.K. lawmakers return from their summer vacation Tuesday and are planning legislation to force Johnson to delay Brexit until Jan. 31 unless he can strike a deal with the European Union by mid-October."A snap election would initially be seen as pound negative given the government is expected to win on a no-deal platform," said Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG. "We would expect to see cable initially fall below $1.20, and then toward $1.10 if the government wins a majority and seeks no deal, if the EU does not back down on the backstop."The pound has fallen close to 4% since Johnson took over from former Prime Minister Theresa May in July. Investors have upped their bets on a no-deal Brexit due to his "do or die" rhetoric, but the possibility of a snap vote adds another layer of uncertainty.Adding to the pound's woes, the U.K. manufacturing sector shrank in August at the fastest pace since 2012. Construction and services figures are due later this week with services activity expected to come in slightly lower than the prior month.U.K. government bonds rallied for a fourth straight month into the end of August as investors braced for Johnson to suspend Parliament ahead of the Brexit deadline on Oct. 31, limiting the time available to prevent a chaotic exit from the European Union. Opposition lawmakers will present legislation Tuesday that would force the U.K. to delay Brexit again if an agreement hasn't been reached.The pound fell as much as 1% to $1.2036 and weakened 0.6% to 90.94 pence per euro. The yield on U.K. 10-year bonds fell five basis points to 0.43%.(Updates with pricing.)To contact the reporter on this story: Charlotte Ryan in London at cryan147@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net, William ShawFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| The Latest: Iran, France race to save nuclear deal Posted: 02 Sep 2019 08:12 AM PDT  French and Iranian experts were huddling in Paris as the clock ticks on an end-of-the-week deadline for Europe to come up with a way for Iran to sell its oil despite U.S. sanctions — or face a new scaling back of the 2015 nuclear accord. A visit on Monday by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a team of economists was wrapped in discretion. The meeting coincided with a Moscow visit by Iran's foreign minister, who made an exceptional appearance in Biarritz last week on the sidelines of the G-7 summit.
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| Pakistan grants consular aid to Indian facing death penalty Posted: 02 Sep 2019 08:09 AM PDT  Pakistan on Monday granted rare consular access to an Indian man facing the deal penalty after being convicted of spying. The foreign ministry said it allowed an Indian diplomat in Islamabad to meet with Kulbhushan Jadhav, in compliance with a July order from the International Court of Justice. At the time, the United Nations' highest court ordered Pakistan to stay the Jadhav's execution.
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| Russia, Iran blame US for regional tensions Posted: 02 Sep 2019 07:44 AM PDT  Moscow and Tehran on Monday blamed US policies for tensions in the Middle East while Russia said it welcomed French efforts to save the Iran nuclear deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif condemned Washington's latest actions in Syria as he visited Moscow for talks with Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov.
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| UK prime minister threatens to oust Conservative 'rebels' who vote against Brexit plan Posted: 02 Sep 2019 07:31 AM PDT ![UK prime minister threatens to oust Conservative 'rebels' who vote against Brexit plan]( "UK prime minister threatens to oust Conservative 'rebels' who vote against Brexit plan") Vote for my Brexit plan or you're out of the party. That's the message from Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
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| Tunisian security chief, 3 extremists killed in shootout Posted: 02 Sep 2019 07:29 AM PDT  A Tunisian national guard chief and three extremists were killed in a clash Monday, on the first day of the country's presidential campaign, authorities said. National guard officers and army troops were tracking a radical group in the Kef mountains near the Algerian border when shooting broke out, killing the four, national guard spokesman Housameddine Jbabli told The Associated Press. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, who is among 26 candidates running for president, told reporters that the extremists "were planning large-scale terrorist operations," without elaborating.
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| Russia’s Deputy Premier Rips New Space Center Posted: 02 Sep 2019 06:12 AM PDT ![Russia's Deputy Premier Rips New Space Center]( "Russia's Deputy Premier Rips New Space Center") (Bloomberg) -- A series of corruption scandals, cost overruns and mishaps at Russia's new Vostochny Cosmodrome have brought long-simmering questions about the leadership of the country's space agency into public view."The situation is unacceptable for everyone, including the construction of the first stage and the second stage" of the space center, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov told Vedomosti newspaper in an interview published Monday, adding that the Defense Ministry may take over part of the work.Borisov, formerly a powerful and secretive official responsible for procurement at the Defense Ministry, became deputy prime minister last year in place of Dmitry Rogozin, who was appointed to head Roscosmos by President Vladimir Putin. While Russia views the cosmodrome as a national security priority, with its current Soviet-era launch base located at Baikonur in neighboring Kazakhstan, the $3 billion project has been plagued by controversy.Rogozin, who's frequently highlighted the threat posed by Elon Musk's SpaceX venture to Russia's launch industry, quickly took to Twitter to defend himself. "It's always been this way: some build, while others criticize," Rogozin wrote. "It's part of the business."Splits within the Kremlin elite have become more visible since Putin's re-election last year to what may be his final presidential term under Russia's constitution, amid jostling by rival factions. Last month, for example, Rostec State Corp. chief Sergey Chemezov, a longtime Putin ally and fellow spy, contradicted the official line that recent Moscow election protests should be put down forcefully, warning instead that the country risked stagnation without a healthy opposition.Putin ordered Russia's Investigative Committee to examine construction at Vostochny during a visit to the space center after a planned first rocket launch was delayed in 2015. Months earlier, workers who hadn't been paid for months went on hunger strike and appealed to Putin for help by painting a message on the roof of their barracks.The Prosecutor General's Office has opened a series of criminal cases after uncovering 10 billion rubles ($150 million) in losses during construction at Vostochny. In one sparkling example of corruption, a contractor accused of stealing 4 million rubles was detained in Minsk, Belarus, while driving a Mercedes covered in Swarovski crystals.While the space center went into operation in 2016, officials uncovered a critical defect on one of Vostochny's launchpads as recently as last November, RBC news website reported. In 2017, a satellite launch failed after the rocket was programmed with coordinates for takeoff from another launch pad.Alexei Kudrin, the head of Russia's Audit Chamber, told lawmakers last year that he had found 760 billion rubles ($11.4 billion) of financial violations in Roscosmos's books, including several billion that had been "basically stolen," describing the space agency as "the champion in terms of the scale of such violations." Roscosmos said the criticism related to a 2017 audit, before Rogozin's appointment.Rogozin, who was responsible as deputy premier for the space industry, threatened in 2015 to "rip off the heads" of construction staff involved in corruption after Vostochny risked having its electricity cut off over unpaid bills, according to the Interfax news service.\--With assistance from Ilya Arkhipov and Stepan Kravchenko.To contact the reporter on this story: Jake Rudnitsky in Moscow at jrudnitsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Torrey Clark at tclark8@bloomberg.net, Tony Halpin, Paul AbelskyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iran acknowledges rocket explosion, says test malfunctioned Posted: 02 Sep 2019 06:04 AM PDT  Iran acknowledged for the first time on Monday that a rocket at its Imam Khomeini Space Center exploded after satellite photos showed the blast last week, with an official saying a technical malfunction during a test caused the explosion. The comments by government spokesman Ali Rabiei were the first explanation offered by Iran for Thursday's explosion, which came ahead of a planned satellite launch by the Islamic Republic that the U.S. has criticized. Rabiei also criticized President Donald Trump for tweeting what appeared to be a surveillance photo of the aftermath of the explosion shot by a U.S. spy satellite.
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| Narrow escapes in state votes earn big German parties a few months' relief Posted: 02 Sep 2019 05:49 AM PDT ![Narrow escapes in state votes earn big German parties a few months' relief]( "Narrow escapes in state votes earn big German parties a few months' relief") German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and their Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners turned their sights with some relief on new hurdles months down the road after withstanding a far-right battering in two eastern regional elections on Sunday. Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats and the SPD clung on as the largest parties in Saxony and Brandenburg respectively but bled support to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which came second in both states. "Both CDU and SPD suffered significant losses in both states, but ultimately got away with a black eye," said Kevin Koerner, senior economist at Deutsche Bank Research.
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| German President Asks For Poland's Forgiveness On 80th Anniversary Of WWII Posted: 02 Sep 2019 05:47 AM PDT  Frank-Walter Steinmeier joined world leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, in Warsaw.
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| Japan's Super Aircraft Carrier Was the Biggest Warship Ever Sunk by a Submarine Posted: 02 Sep 2019 05:30 AM PDT  Still, the Shinano's crew wasn't unduly worried. The ship was designed to absorb such damage, and in fact continued to try to sail at maximum speed. But water flooded through the holes in the ship's side, flowing into unsecured spaces and through what should have been watertight doors. Pumps and generators failed. Soon the carrier acquired a list to starboard that only got worse.If weight alone could determine victory, then the Imperial Japanese Navy aircraft carrier Shinano might still be afloat.At 69,000 tons when launched in 1944, the Shinano would have remained the world's largest aircraft until the 1960s. But that was not to be. Instead the Shinano earned a distinction of a different kind: the title of largest warship ever sunk by a submarine.(This first appeared several years ago.)And the submarine that accomplished—the 1,500-ton USS Archerfish—was one-forty-sixth the size of its victim.The story begins in May 1940, when the Shinano was laid down as the third of Japan's legendary Yamato-class battleships. These giants were the largest battleships in history, built as part of Japan's desperate attempt to counter U.S. naval quantity with a few—hopefully—qualitatively superior warships. If all went according to plan, the Shinano would join her sisters Yamato and Musashi as the three queens of Second World War battlewagons.RECOMMENDED: North Korea Has 200,000 Soldiers in Its Special Forces Yet by 1942, Japan began to realize that it needed aircraft carriers more than battleships. Naval warfare was now ruled by these floating airfields, and Japan had lost its four best at the Battle of Midway. The orders came down to convert Shinano into an aircraft carrier such as the world had never seen.At 69,000 tons, it was the double the tonnage of the Essex-class carriers that won the Pacific War for America, and would remain the largest until the advent of nuclear-powered carriers in the early 1960s. Its main deck, already sheathed in armor up to 7.5 inches thick, became the hangar deck where aircraft were serviced. On top was the flight deck to launch and recover planes, itself protected by 3.75 inches of armor.RECOMMENDED: How America Would Wage a War Against North Korea Instead of the devastating eighteen-inch cannon of her two sisters, the Shinano's main armament was supposed to be forty-seven aircraft, rather stingy compared to the 75–100 aircraft on large U.S. and Japanese carriers. But its weaponry was still impressive: sixteen five-inch antiaircraft guns, 145 25mm antiaircraft machine guns and twelve multiple rocket launchers with 4.7-inch unguided antiaircraft rockets.The Shinano's designers learned—or thought they had learned—the lessons from the sloppy damage control that had unnecessarily doomed several Japanese carriers. Flammable paint and wood were avoided. Care was taken to protect ventilation shafts so explosive gases couldn't seep through the ship as they had with other Japanese carriers.But the Shinano's impregnability was only skin deep. "Although he was outwardly serene, Captain Mikami felt pressing concern about the ship's watertight compartments," later wrote Joseph Enright, the Archerfish's captain. "The air pressure tests that would have confirmed his hope that the compartments were watertight had been canceled in the rush to move Shinano to the Inland Sea."Sailors can be a superstitious lot, and there was a bad omen when the ship was launched on October 8, 1944 from Yokusuka naval base. A drydock gate buckled, allowing a surge of water to smash the ship against the drydock wall three times. After repairs, it took to sea on November 28, the carrier took to sea with its three-destroyer escort, headed toward the Kure naval base. It carried some suicide boats and kamikaze flying bombs, but no aircraft to fly antisubmarine patrols through Japanese home waters, which were teeming with U.S. submarines.Unfortunately, the Shinano ran into the Archerfish that night, cruising on the surface and on the prowl. The sub was on its fifth war patrol, but it had yet to sink an enemy vessel. Captain Enright decided he needed to sail to a point ahead of his target, submerge so the destroyers wouldn't spot him and fire his torpedoes. That wasn't an easy prospect in World War II, when surface ships could steam faster than submarines.The Archerfish paralleled the Japanese task force. It also turned on its radar to track them, which was detected by receivers on the Shinano. The Japanese captain worried about a massed attack by an American sub wolfpack, but he didn't worry that much. Hadn't the Shinano's sister ship Musashi endured ten torpedo hits and sixteen bombs before succumbing at the Battle of the Philippine Sea? Despite the numerous U.S. subs infesting Japanese home waters, the carrier's watertight doors were opened to allow the crew access to the machinery.The Japanese force zigged and zagged to throw off any undersea pursuers. And then came that bit of luck that often tips every battle. The Japanese ships zigged one more time, straight into the path of the Archerfish. The sub took its chance. At 3:15 am on November 29, it fired six torpedoes. Four hit.Still, the Shinano's crew wasn't unduly worried. The ship was designed to absorb such damage, and in fact continued to try to sail at maximum speed. But water flooded through the holes in the ship's side, flowing into unsecured spaces and through what should have been watertight doors. Pumps and generators failed. Soon the carrier acquired a list to starboard that only got worse.The Shinano's escorting destroyers attempted to tow it, but to no avail. At 10:18 am, seven hours after the attack, the order was given to abandon ship. At 10:57 am the ship sank, along with 1,435 of its crew, including the captain.A postwar U.S. Navy analysis suggested the Yamato-class ships, including Shinano, suffered from design flaws. The joints between the main armored belt and the armored bulkheads below were vulnerable to leakage, and the Archerfish's torpedoes hit that joint. Some bulkheads were also prone to rupture. Then again, the Shinano was hardly the lone victim of subs. The United States lost the carrier Wasp to Japanese torpedo attack, and several British carriers fell victim to German U-boats.Perhaps there was also bad luck. Bad luck into running into the Archerfish, bad luck in zig-zagging straight into the path of a salvo of torpedoes, bad luck that the torpedoes hit a vulnerable spot.In the end, the Shinano would make history—and then sink into the cold, deep waters of the Pacific.Michael Peck is a contributing writer for the National Interest. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.For further reading: Shinano: The Sinking of Japan's Secret Supership by Joseph Enright and James Ryan.
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| German SPD shouldn't flee responsibility after losses in state votes - official Posted: 02 Sep 2019 05:23 AM PDT ![German SPD shouldn't flee responsibility after losses in state votes - official]( "German SPD shouldn't flee responsibility after losses in state votes - official") Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) should not flee responsibility, a senior party official said on Monday, after the party suffered losses in two state elections held on Sunday. Both the SPD and Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives - which rule in a national coalition - bled support to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state votes in eastern Germany.
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| UPDATE 1-Get rid of PM's "populist cabal", Labour's Corbyn backs new UK election Posted: 02 Sep 2019 05:22 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-Get rid of PM's "populist cabal", Labour's Corbyn backs new UK election]( "UPDATE 1-Get rid of PM's \"populist cabal\", Labour's Corbyn backs new UK election") Britain's Jeremy Corbyn said on Monday his opposition Labour Party wants a new election above all else to oust Prime Minister Boris Johnson's "phony, populist cabal", renewing his support for moves to stop a no-deal Brexit. In a wide-ranging speech which did little to dampen expectations that an election could be called soon, Corbyn said his party would do everything it could to stop Johnson from leading Britain out of the European Union without an agreement.
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| Beating Populism Requires More, Merkel Allies Realize After Vote Posted: 02 Sep 2019 05:11 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- A day after only a narrow victory in state elections, Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition realized once again that it needs to do far more to effectively stem the rise of populism in Germany.Yes, the Christian Democrats and their junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats, won in the eastern states of Brandenburg and Saxony. But the gains of the euro-skeptic, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD by its German acronym, were impressive by any measure. So much so, that AfD leader Joerg Meuthen, said that his party was the actual winner in Sunday's poll. Its support nearly tripled in Saxony.The narrow victories stave off a deeper political crisis in the 17-month-old governing coalition. But many leaders from the two ruling parties said the result was an alarm bell that required a change in policy to more closely target the underlying causes of the AfD's popularity. The election also renewed the focus on Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who had taken over from Merkel as party leader in December, pledging to win back voters lost to the AfD."The SPD but also the CDU must focus much more on the East," SPD Co-Chair Manuela Schwesig told ARD television on Monday."We're not succeeding in drawing part of the people toward us, especially in the new states," Daniel Guenther, CDU premier of the state of Schleswig Holstein told Welt newspaper in reference to regions of former East Germany.Despite nearly a decade of consistent economic growth, there has been growing discontent with Merkel and the ruling parties, particularly in the former communist East, which has undergone decades of social and economic change. Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the region still has lower incomes, higher unemployment and often decrepit roads and railways. Plans to phase out coal by 2038 risks eliminating thousands of additional jobs in the region.The Merkel administration ramped up promises to transfer civil servant jobs to the East, and earmarked 40 billion euros to help with the shift toward cleaner energy. But even within the CDU, there's now a growing perception that the party hadn't taken the AfD and its supporters serious enough in recent years.AKK, as the CDU's national leader is known in Germany, on Monday triggered an outcry when she suggested that the CDU could afford to ignore AfD voters, which represent roughly a quarter of the voters."That's the wrong approach," retorted Mike Mohring, head of the CDU in the eastern state of Thuringia, which goes to the polls on Oct. 27. "When we lose voters, it's our duty to win these voters back in the next election."AKK later clarified that' she meant to say that the CDU wasn't interested in a dialogue with the AfD. "We fight for every voter," she said at a news conference, adding that the election results fell short of expectations.Merkel's ruling coalition has been plagued by infighting and a poor showing on Sunday could have further pushed the SPD, the junior coalition partner, to eventually leave government."It could have been worse," Carsten Nickel, analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, wrote in response to a query. "But there is no denying that the SPD continues to die a slow death while the CDU lacks any idea for the post-Merkel world."(Updates to add AKK comment in tenth paragraph.)\--With assistance from Iain Rogers, Leonard Kehnscherper and Chris Reiter.To contact the reporters on this story: Arne Delfs in Berlin at adelfs@bloomberg.net;Birgit Jennen in Berlin at bjennen1@bloomberg.net;Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Raymond Colitt, Richard BravoFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UPDATE 1-"Unreasonable" for UK lawmakers to bind PM's hands on Brexit - spokesman Posted: 02 Sep 2019 04:26 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-"Unreasonable" for UK lawmakers to bind PM's hands on Brexit - spokesman]( "UPDATE 1-\"Unreasonable\" for UK lawmakers to bind PM's hands on Brexit - spokesman") It would be entirely unreasonable for British lawmakers to try to bind the hands of Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he seeks a new Brexit deal with the European Union, his spokesman said on Monday. Opposition parties and rebel Conservative lawmakers are expected to try to force the government to ask Brussels for an extension to the Brexit deadline when parliament returns from its summer break on Tuesday.
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| UK PM Johnson calls cabinet, could threaten election - BBC political editor Posted: 02 Sep 2019 04:23 AM PDT ![UK PM Johnson calls cabinet, could threaten election - BBC political editor]( "UK PM Johnson calls cabinet, could threaten election - BBC political editor") British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called a cabinet meeting for later on Monday and could ask lawmakers to vote on calling an election if they vote against his government on Brexit, BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg said. "Cabinet is being called for this afternoon," Kuenssberg said.
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| Iran says views converging with France on breaking impasse Posted: 02 Sep 2019 04:06 AM PDT Iran said Monday its views have been converging with those of France on ways to save a nuclear deal at risk of unravelling since the US withdrew last year. Government spokesman Ali Rabiei also suggested President Hassan Rouhani could meet US counterpart Donald Trump if it served Iran's interests, while cautioning there was no need to meet an "agitator" in the current circumstances. Rouhani has had a series of phone calls with French President Emmanuel Macron in recent weeks aimed at salvaging the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
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| Labour's Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a UK election Posted: 02 Sep 2019 03:49 AM PDT ![Labour's Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a UK election]( "Labour's Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a UK election") Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Monday he wanted an election and that his party would stop a no-deal Brexit. "We must come together to stop no deal - this week could be our last chance," Corbyn said in a speech in Salford, northern England. "In that election, Labour will give people the chance to take back control and have the final say in a public vote with credible options on both sides including the option to remain," Corbyn said.
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