| Major Disruption at Hong Kong Airport After Violent Weekend Protests Posted: 01 Sep 2019 04:15 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong protesters caused major disruptions to the city's international airport Sunday, massing outside the building in an attempt to paralyze transport to and from the facility.MTR Corp., operator of the city's rail system, canceled express trains to the airport, while demonstrators blocked buses from leaving the airport terminal. Protesters vandalized turnstiles at some stations and sprayed graffiti on them. Airport Authority Hong Kong obtained an injunction last month against people holding demonstrations there and a later one preventing them from blocking roads.Sunday's civil action followed a night of some of the worst violence in the city since the anti-China demonstrations began almost three months ago. Police arrested 63 people in running battles across Hong Kong, with tear gas and two warning shots fired by officers in a standoff with a crowd. The youngest person held was 13 years old.It's the 13th straight weekend of historic political unrest in the Asian financial center as rallies over a now-suspended bill to allow extraditions to China widened into a push for greater democracy. The violence came after police denied permission for the mass rally and arrested several prominent pro-democracy activists, warning others could also be detained for taking part in unauthorized assemblies.Facilities at 32 train stations, including glass windows of station control rooms, ticket issuing machines, gates and security cameras were "severely damaged," MTR said in a statement. Rail services were interrupted after riot police were called to a station because of a clash between protesters and other passengers. Police used batons and pepper spray on passengers. The rail operator, which had earlier planned to shut some subway stations for repairs, said Monday that all stops will now open.Demonstrators also gathered outside the U.K. consulate on Sunday, many of them waving British flags. The protest was called to press their demands that Britain confirm China has violated the Sino-British Joint Declaration by not granting democracy to Hong Kong; and that the U.K. grant full citizenship to British National (Overseas) passport holders.Unauthorized AssemblyPolice arrested 40 for offences including participating in an unauthorized assembly, criminal damage and obstructing police officers, Senior Superintendent Yolanda Yu said at a press conference held in the early hours of Sunday morning. Separately, 11 people were arrested in Causeway Bay and Sai Wan for possessing weapons Saturday, she said. The warning shots were fired because there were "serious threats" to the lives of its officers, police said.Numerous protesters on Saturday said arrests of activists last week -- which included Joshua Wong, who led an earlier wave of protests in 2014 -- had angered many and drawn people to the streets as they fight to preserve democratic freedoms. Some vowed to continue protests in the coming days and said they were resorting to increasingly radical tactics, including targeting the city's busy international airport, because the government didn't listen after peaceful rallies of almost 2 million people."Hopefully they will hear us if we do these kind of aggressive actions," said Cheung, a 23-year-old protester clad in goggles and a gas mask, who only gave his surname. "There've been lots of peaceful protests and there was no response from the government. That's why we're being more aggressive and trying to disrupt the Hong Kong economy," he said as police fired tear gas nearby at protesters pelting the city's Legislative Council complex with eggs and bricks.The rally, called by the organizer of some of the city's biggest protests, was canceled after failing to get police approval. It was originally planned to coincide with a decree from Beijing five years ago that dashed the hopes of many for true democracy in the former colony and helped set off the Occupy protest movement in 2014.'Universal Suffrage'"We're here to protest that decision and to tell the Chinese government we do not agree with anything that is a barrier to our democracy, our universal suffrage," said a 21-year-old student protester, who only gave his first name, Hugo.Demonstrators threw Molotov cocktails and bricks, and set aflame a massive road block and vowed to drag out the protests until their demands were met. Police responded with tear gas, water cannons spraying blue dye and repeated baton charges.On Saturday, the Hong Kong government issued a formal statement on the issue, repeating that universal suffrage is the "ultimate aim," but that election reforms will take place "in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress."The ongoing unrest represents the biggest threat to Beijing's oversight of Hong Kong since the return to Chinese rule in 1997, and is a geopolitical embarrassment for President Xi Jinping as his government gets set to celebrate 70 years of communist rule on Oct. 1.As demonstrations drag out, protesters and the Hong Kong administration are being driven further apart. The government of Chief Executive Carrie Lam is refusing to rule out using a colonial-era emergency powers law, while demonstrators are ramping up disruptive protests as authorities stand firm on rejecting their demands for greater democracy."They are trying to scare us, but I'm ready to be arrested," said Philip, a 60-year-old pastor who only gave his first name and marched with his wife and two children. He said that he didn't want to see clashes between protesters and police.Ronny Tong, a member of Lam's advisory Executive Council, said in an interview on Friday that many Hong Kongers want to see demonstrators punished for the more violent protests that have occurred throughout the ongoing unrest."We are a very pluralistic society and there's been a very loud cry from different sectors of the community who have called for the arrest of the ringleaders of people who have been rioting in the streets, you know, committing arson and assaulting police officers," he said.\--With assistance from Gregor Stuart Hunter and Natalie Lung.To contact the reporters on this story: Iain Marlow in Hong Kong at imarlow1@bloomberg.net;Aaron Mc Nicholas in Hong Kong at amcnicholas2@bloomberg.net;Fion Li in Hong Kong at fli59@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Shamim Adam at sadam2@bloomberg.net, ;Daniel Ten Kate at dtenkate@bloomberg.net, Stanley JamesFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| WWII's start marked in Poland with German remorse, warning Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:08 PM PDT  Germany's president expressed deep remorse for the suffering his nation inflicted on Poland and the rest of Europe during World War II, warning of the dangers of nationalism as world leaders gathered Sunday in the country where the war started at incalculable costs. "This war was a German crime," President Frank-Walter Steinmeier told Poland's top leaders, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other world leaders at a 80th anniversary ceremony marking World's War II's outbreak.
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| Fate of Brexit Is Up in the Air as Johnson Delivers Surprises Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:50 PM PDT ![Fate of Brexit Is Up in the Air as Johnson Delivers Surprises]( "Fate of Brexit Is Up in the Air as Johnson Delivers Surprises") (Bloomberg) -- Boris Johnson's summer is over. The week that could determine how long he remains prime minister -- and how or whether Britain leaves the European Union -- is about to begin.The rules of the U.K.'s unwritten constitution are being stretched to the limit, with new precedents being set and cries of foul play arising nearly every day. Johnson's goal is to stay in power by uniting hard-line Brexit supporters while opponents remain divided. It remains to be seen whether he's overplayed his hand.Throughout August, different factions among the members of parliament who want to stop Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal have proposed and rejected various plans to stop Johnson from pursuing such a course. Now they seem to have agreed, with senior figures from Johnson's Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party saying they're ready to move decisively when Parliament returns on Sept. 3.Last week, Johnson tried to sabotage opponents by asking the Queen to suspend parliament for a month from Sept. 12 (she agreed). While that reduces the amount of time that MPs have to act -- Britain is set to quit on Oct. 31 -- it's made wavering politicians realize that they have one shot.Johnson was due to meet potential Tory rebels on Monday, to persuade them that his plan isn't to actually pursue a no-deal Brexit, but simply to bluff EU leaders into believing that one is possible. But the talks were called off.This week could end with Johnson triumphant, the man with whom the EU is forced to negotiate if it wants to avoid no-deal. Or it could end with yet another Conservative prime minister humiliated at the hands of his own party, this time with pro-European Tories the ones to take revenge. Or Britain could be on course for yet another election.The choice that Johnson tried to frame in an interview with the Sunday Times was less about a deal than about opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn."The fundamental choice is this: are you going to side with Jeremy Corbyn and those who want to cancel the referendum?" he said. "Are you going to side with those who want to scrub the democratic verdict of the people, and plunge this country into chaos?"Thousands of people on Saturday joined protests across the U.K. against the decision to suspend parliament. The demonstrators used the slogan "Stop the Coup" to protest the limiting of debate.Several potential rebel Conservative MPs responded angrily over the weekend to reports that they might be expelled from their party if they vote against the government. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond pointed out that several members of Johnson's Cabinet, including Johnson himself, had voted against the government on European issues earlier this year.Former Justice Secretary David Gauke told Sky News on Sunday that sometimes "you have to judge between your own personal interests and the national interest. And the national interest has to come first."The rebels haven't set out their exact plan, and even if a bill is passed, it's possible Johnson could try to get round it. Michael Gove, minister in charge of no-deal planning, repeatedly refused to say whether the government would obey such a law. "Let's see what the legislation says," he told the BBC on Sunday.Earlier in the summer, Labour proposed installing Corbyn as a caretaker leader with a mandate to call an election. That idea was rejected by Conservatives, and though a confidence vote remains a possibility, Gauke said he regarded Corbyn as too much of a risk to be prime minister.But some in Labour fear Johnson may try to get Corbyn out of the way by giving him something he wants: a swift election. Johnson would need the opposition party's support to call one, but if he had it, he could offer a date before Britain is due to leave. The prime minister has in recent days unveiled billions of pounds of new spending on education, social care and transportation, adding to speculation that he's preparing for the polls.Former Prime Minister Tony Blair will on Monday urge Corbyn to rule an election out. "It is counter-intuitive for opposition parties to refuse an election," he'll say in a speech in London. "But in this exceptional case, it is vital they do so as a matter of principle, until Brexit is resolved."Two weeks ago, Johnson visited Berlin and Paris to make his case to his counterparts. The EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, told the Sunday Telegraph newspaper he's "not optimistic" about avoiding no deal.When Gove was asked Sunday if there would be food shortages or if food prices would go up, in such a scenario, his response was: "People will have the food they need."To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, ;Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint, Ros KrasnyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Saudi-led airstrikes kill at least 100 in rebel-run prison Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:35 PM PDT  The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen staged multiple airstrikes on a detention center operated by the Houthi rebels in the southwestern province of Dhamar, killing at least 100 people and wounding dozens more Sunday, officials and the rebels' health ministry said. Franz Rauchenstein, the head of the Red Cross delegation in Yemen, suggested that the death toll could be higher after visiting the site of the attack, saying relatively few detainees survived. A Red Cross statement said the detention center held around 170 detainees.
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| EU's Barnier 'not optimistic' of divorce deal as MPs bid to block no-deal Brexit Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:32 PM PDT  The European Union will not change the divorce deal agreed with Britain, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said in an interview published Sunday as MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit prepared for a showdown week. Barnier insisted the agreement's most contentious element, a so-called backstop mechanism to keep the Northern Irish border open in all post-Brexit circumstances, was "the maximum amount of flexibility that the EU can offer". Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, he added that the provision must remain part of any deal but given British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hostility to it he was "not optimistic" of avoiding Britain crashing out of the European Union on October 31.
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| UK's Labour to do 'everything necessary' to stop no-deal Brexit Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:30 PM PDT ![UK's Labour to do 'everything necessary' to stop no-deal Brexit]( "UK's Labour to do 'everything necessary' to stop no-deal Brexit") Britain's main opposition Labour Party will do everything possible to stop a no-deal Brexit after parliament returns on Tuesday, its leader Jeremy Corbyn will say on Monday. Lawmakers opposed to the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union on Oct. 31 without an orderly transition arrangement are drawing up plans to try to legislate to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to rule out a no-deal exit. Johnson has said his efforts to strike a new withdrawal agreement with the EU would be hampered by any attempt in Westminster to block a no-deal Brexit.
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| The Latest: Red Cross: 100 presumed dead in Yemen airstrike Posted: 01 Sep 2019 01:05 PM PDT  The Red Cross says more than 100 people are "presumed killed" in Yemen after airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition hit a detention center run by the Houthi rebels. The head of the Red Cross delegation in Yemen, Franz Rauchenstein, says: "Witnessing this massive damage, seeing the bodies lying among the rubble, was a real shock. The Red Cross said the final death toll from Sunday's attack was not yet confirmed.
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| More than 100 killed in air strike on Yemen prison: ICRC Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:13 PM PDT  More than 100 people are believed to have been killed in an air strike by the Saudi-led military coalition on a detention centre in Yemen, the International Committee of the Red Cross said Sunday. The coalition said it targeted a facility run by the Huthi rebels that "stores drones and missiles", but the rebels said the attack had levelled a building they used as a prison. The United Nations said 52 detainees were among the dead, with a further 68 still missing.
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| The Latest: Russia tweets reminder of Soviet role in WWII Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:08 PM PDT  Russian President Vladimir Putin wasn't invited to attend ceremonies for the 80th anniversary of the day World War II started in Poland. The appeal for historical accuracy appeared on Twitter as other world leaders attended the events in Warsaw where Putin's presence wasn't requested.
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| Israel, Hezbollah engage in brief, intense fighting Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:07 PM PDT  Hezbollah militants on Sunday fired a barrage of anti-tank missiles into Israel, prompting a reprisal of heavy Israeli artillery fire in a rare burst of fighting between the bitter enemies. The bitter enemies, which fought a monthlong war in 2006, have indicated they do not want to go to war but appeared on a collision course in recent days after a pair of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. The U.N. peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, said it was in contact with all sides and urged restraint.
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| Could the End of the World Be Brought On By...Israeli Submarines? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:00 PM PDT  There is also the possibility the nuclear armament is based on the Gabriel antiship missile, and there are also reports that Harpoon missiles were modified to carry nuclear weapons. Nobody appears to know for sure what missile is operational, only that it was observed and that arming them with nuclear weapons is a logical conclusion. The yield of the nuclear warhead on these missiles is unknown, but estimates float around the two-hundred-kiloton mark, which would make them roughly fourteen times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.Israel's submarine corps is a tiny force with a big open secret: in all likelihood, it is armed with nuclear weapons. The five Dolphin-class submarines represent an ace in the hole for Israel, the ultimate guarantor of the country's security, ensuring that if attacked with nukes, the tiny nation can strike back in kind.Israel's first nuclear weapons were completed by the early 1970s, and deployed among both free-fall aircraft bombs and Jericho ballistic missiles. The 1991 Persian Gulf War, which saw Iraqi Scuds and Al Hussein ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities, led Tel Aviv to conclude that the country needed a true nuclear triad of air-, land- and sea-based nukes to give the country's nuclear deterrent maximum flexibility—and survivability.(This first appeared last several years ago.)Recommended: Uzi: The Israeli Machine Gun That Conquered the WorldRecommended: The M4: The Gun U.S. Army Loves to Go to War WithRecommended: Why Glock Dominates the Handgun Market (And Better than Sig Sauer and Beretta)The most survivable arm of the nuclear triad is typically the sea-based one, consisting of nuclear-armed submarines. Submarines can disappear for weeks or even months, taking up a highly classified patrol route while waiting for orders to launch their missiles. This so-called "second-strike capability" is built on the principle of nuclear deterrence and ensures potential enemies will think twice before attacking, knowing Israel's submarines will be available to carry out revenge attacks.The first three submarines were authorized before the Gulf War, in 1988, though it is not clear they were built with nuclear weapons in mind. After years of delays construction began in Germany instead of the United States as originally planned, with German combat systems instead of American ones. Most importantly, the project went ahead with German financing; Berlin reportedly felt obliged to finance two of the submarines, and split the third as lax German nonproliferation enforcement had partly enabled Iraq's nuclear and chemical weapons program.The first three submarines, Dolphin, Leviathan and Tekuma, were laid down in the early 1990s, but only entered service between 1999 and 2000. The submarines are 187 feet long, displace 1,720 tons submerged and have an operating depth of 1,148 feet. Sensors include the STN Atlas Elektronik CSU-90-1 sonar suite with the DBSQS-21D active and AN 5039A1 passive sonar systems. The Dolphin class also has PRS-3-15 passive ranging sonar and FAS-3-1 passive flank arrays.Each has ten torpedo tubes in the bow, six standard 533-millimeter standard diameter tubes and four larger 650-millimeter torpedoes. The larger torpedo tubes are more than two feet wide, and reportedly double as ingress/egress chambers for divers. Armament is a mixture of German, American and Israeli weapons, including Seahake heavyweight wire-guided torpedoes and Harpoon antiship missiles. The authoritative Combat Fleets of the World claims the Dolphin subs may have the Triton fiber-optic guided-weapon system. With a range of more than nine miles, Triton allows submarines the ability to attack helicopters, surface ships and coastal targets.The four large torpedo tubes are the key to Israel's sea-based deterrent, and without them it's unlikely the country would have nukes on submarines. The large tubes are used not only for laying mines and sending and receiving divers, but also to launch nuclear cruise missiles. In 2000, the U.S. Navy observed a missile launch from off the coast of Sri Lanka that traveled an estimated 932 miles. Exactly what this missile was is a matter of speculation, but the leading candidate is some advanced form of the Popeye missile.Popeye was originally an air-launched ground-attack missile. Developed in the late 1980s, Popeye originally used a television camera or infrared seeker to deliver a 750-pound warhead to ranges of up to forty-five miles. The United States Air Force bought 154 Popeye missiles to arm B-52 bombers for conventional attacks, renaming them the AGM-142 Raptor. Israel's nuclear deterrent is thought to be based on cruise missile version of Popeye, Popeye Turbo, which has a turbofan engine for long-distance flight.There is also the possibility the nuclear armament is based on the Gabriel antiship missile, and there are also reports that Harpoon missiles were modified to carry nuclear weapons. Nobody appears to know for sure what missile is operational, only that it was observed and that arming them with nuclear weapons is a logical conclusion. The yield of the nuclear warhead on these missiles is unknown, but estimates float around the two-hundred-kiloton mark, which would make them roughly fourteen times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.Whatever the missile, a 932-mile range gives it the ability—just barely—to strike the Iranian capital of Tehran, as well as the holy city of Qom and the northern city of Tabriz, from a position off the coast of Syria. (Iran's pursuit of nuclear arms is likely the main and enduring driver of Israel's second strike capability.) That isn't an ideal firing position, and it's been seventeen years since the missile's first flight, so it's also reasonable to assume that the weapon's range has been extended to the point where it can launch against Tehran and even more Iranian cities from a relatively safe location.Having three submarines in operation generally means at least one is at sea at any particular time, a necessity for a sea-based nuclear deterrent. The Dolphin class reportedly carries up to sixteen torpedoes and missiles; if the submarines' primary task is nuclear deterrence, half of its weapons space might be allocated for carrying nukes. The result is that at any given time Tehran is likely in the nuclear crosshairs of an Israeli submarine.The second set of Dolphin submarines, Dolphin II, was ordered in the mid-2000s. These subs are virtually identical to the previous class except for the addition of a thirty-six-foot-long plug in the hull to accommodate an air independent propulsion (AIP) system, allowing the submarine to operate submerged for much longer periods than diesel electric subs without it. According to Der Spiegel, the Dolphin II subs can stay underwater for up to eighteen days. In addition to a stretch configuration and AIP, Dolphin IIs weigh approximately 20 percent more and have dedicated diver-lockout chambers.The German government has just recently given the go-ahead for yet another set of three more Dolphins. These new submarines should be ready just as the three first-generation boats are aging out, ensuring that Israel has a fleet of six submarines available for the foreseeable future. Israel's sea-based nuclear deterrent is here to stay.Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national-security writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in the Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and the Daily Beast. In 2009 he cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. You can follow him on Twitter: @KyleMizokami.Image: Pintrest.(This article first appeared several years ago and is being republished due to reader interest.)
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| U.S. backs Israel's right to self-defense in Lebanon border tensions Posted: 01 Sep 2019 11:45 AM PDT ![U.S. backs Israel's right to self-defense in Lebanon border tensions]( "U.S. backs Israel's right to self-defense in Lebanon border tensions") The U.S. government on Sunday voiced concern about growing tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border, underscoring its support for Israel and warning Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah to refrain from actions that threatened the country's security. Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri on Sunday called U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire along the Lebanon border, Hariri's office said.
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| Merkel Gets Relief as Germany's Coalition Parties Win Key Votes Posted: 01 Sep 2019 11:19 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Angela Merkel's ruling coalition stemmed a surge by Germany's far-right populists in two regional elections in the former communist east.The euro-skeptic, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD by its German acronym, trailed the incumbent Social Democrats by 2 to 3 percentage points in the state of Brandenburg, according to projections by ARD and ZDF, two public television stations. In neighboring Saxony, Merkel's Christian Democrats led the AfD by an even bigger margin."The friendly Saxony won," the state's CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer told supporters in Dresden, while AfD leaders in Brandenburg pledged to put up a strong opposition.The narrow victories in the two states may for now stave off a deeper political crisis in the 17-month-old governing coalition that had been bickering over issues from environment to gender and wealth gaps and suffered heavy losses in EU elections earlier this year. But the stiff challenge from a protest party that didn't exist before 2013 is a wake-up call to Germany's two main parties just as Europe's largest nation teeters on the brink of a recession."Good that they're not ahead, but better that they can't repeat these results," Finance Minister Olaf Scholz of the SPD said on local TV. "It's the duty of all of us to ensure the AfD becomes weaker again."Sunday's result may have been as much a vote against extremism as it was for Germany's mainstream parties, which have continually lost ground to the right wing and to the Greens in recent years."This was a very strong signal against the AfD, people didn't want the AfD to be the strongest party," said SPD Secretary-General Lars Klingbeil. "We have very mixed feelings, I can say that openly."Merkel's ruling coalition has been plagued by infighting and a poor showing on Sunday could have further pushed the SPD, the junior coalition partner, to eventually leave government."It could have been worse,'' Carsten Nickel, analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, wrote in response to a query. "But there is no denying that the SPD continues to die a slow death while the CDU lacks any idea for the post-Merkel world."Despite nearly a decade of consistent economic growth, there has been growing discontent with Merkel and the ruling parties, particularly in the former communist East, which has undergone decades of social and economic change. The region now faces the loss of tens of thousands of jobs from Germany's plans to phase out coal mining by 2038.In the run-up to the election the Merkel administration promised to transfer civil servant jobs to the East, and earmarked 40 billion euros to help exit coal by 2038.Even if the AfD had won, it would unlikely have formed or participated in a government, as no other party is willing to partner with it.(Updates with latest results, quotes throughout.)To contact the reporters on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net;Leonard Kehnscherper in Berlin at lkehnscherpe@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Raymond Colitt, Chris ReiterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Relief for Angela Merkel as AfD held at bay in German regional elections Posted: 01 Sep 2019 11:07 AM PDT  There was relief for Angela Merkel on Sunday as the nationalist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) failed to make a widely forecast breakthrough in key regional elections. The AfD made significant gains in elections in two states in the former communist east, but fell short of winning first place amid a late surge for the established parties. Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) held onto first place in the state of Saxony with 32 per cent according to initial projections, ahead of the AfD on 27.5 per cent. Her main coalition partners, the centre-Left Social Democrats (SPD), came first in the state of Brandenburg, with 27.5 per cent ahead of the AfD's 22.5 per cent. "It is good that the people of Brandenburg have said we do not want the far-Right extremists of the AfD to win," Lars Klingbeil, the SPD party chairman said. "The friendly face of Saxony has prevailed," Michael Kretschmer, the CDU regional leader said. "This is a great day for our state." "Our slogan was 'Twenty per cent plus'. We have achieved that and are very satisfied in both Brandenburg and Saxony," Alexander Gauland, the AfD leader, said. "But yes, we did not come first. There is still a piece missing and the work starts now." The AfD celebrated significant gains despite failing to win first place in either state Credit: Carsten Koall/Getty Images Europe The AfD led in the Brandenburg polls for much of the campaign and was widely expected to win first place in a regional election for the first time. But it was held at bay by a late swing towards the established parties amid a dramatic rise in turnout. The result will ease the immediate pressure on Mrs Merkel and her chosen successor as CDU leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who has endured a difficult first year in charge. But the CDU still suffered its worst ever result in its former stronghold of Saxony, and now faces a difficult task building a new coalition in the fractured regional parliament. The election leaves the CDU divided, after Mr Kretschmer pulled the party back in the polls by distancing himself from Mrs Merkel's national government, and a right-wing faction held its own separate victory celebrations last night. The SPD was neck-and-neck with the AfD in the Brandenburg polls right up until voting opened, and the party was celebrating an unexpected comeback last night. But it still suffered significant losses at the AfD's hands in a state it has ruled since reunification, and will now need two partners to build a new regional coalition. The AfD was hoping for a strong result in its heartlands in the former communist east to offset a disappointing 12 months which saw it come fourth in the European elections and fail to make a breakthrough in the more populous west.
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| Taliban attack 2nd Afghan city as US envoy says deal is near Posted: 01 Sep 2019 11:01 AM PDT  The Taliban attacked a second Afghan city in as many days on Sunday, killing several civilians and security forces, officials said, even as Washington's peace envoy said the U.S. and the militant group are "at the threshold of an agreement" to end America's longest war. The attack on the capital of Baghlan province came hours after U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad said he warned the Taliban during talks in Qatar that "violence like this must stop." But he appeared determined to move forward on a deal that plans to withdraw some 14,000 remaining U.S. troops in exchange for Taliban guarantees that Afghanistan will not be used as a launch pad for global attacks.
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| Anti Merkel far-right AfD surges in east German state polls Posted: 01 Sep 2019 10:56 AM PDT  Germany's far-right AfD party surged in elections in two ex-communist eastern states Sunday, reflecting anger over Chancellor Angela Merkel's migrant policy and a wealth gap 30 years after the Berlin Wall fell. The Alternative for Germany became the second-strongest party in regional parliaments in both Saxony and Brandenburg, the state which surrounds the capital Berlin, said public television exit polls. In Saxony, where the radical anti-Islam Pegida street movement was born, the AfD scored 28 percent, sharply up from 9.7 percent five years ago, broadcasters ARD and ZDF forecast.
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| UN chief visits Congo Ebola region, pledging support Posted: 01 Sep 2019 10:19 AM PDT  The United Nations secretary general visited Congo's eastern city of Beni on Sunday, pledging solidarity as the region faces an Ebola outbreak that has killed nearly 2,000 people in a year and ongoing insecurity that has residents skeptical of outside help. "I could not go to the DRC (Congo) without coming to meet the brave inhabitants of this beautiful territory," U.N. chief Antonio Guterres said.
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| Commission says long-missing Maldivian journalist is dead Posted: 01 Sep 2019 10:18 AM PDT ![Commission says long-missing Maldivian journalist is dead]( "Commission says long-missing Maldivian journalist is dead") A Maldives commission of inquiry has concluded that a journalist reported missing since 2014 has been killed possibly by those linked to fighters in Syria at the time, the commission's president said Sunday. Husnu Suood, president of the government-appointed commission said that Ahmed Rilwan, a journalist attached to Maldives Independent news website had been abducted outside his apartment in the Hulhumale island, pushed into a car, taken to a boat and transferred to a bigger vessel at deeper seas and killed.
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| Israeli PM infuses campaign with anti-media incitement Posted: 01 Sep 2019 09:34 AM PDT  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kicked off the unofficial start of his new election campaign Sunday with a move straight out of his old playbook: attacking the media and pandering to his nationalist base. With just over two weeks to go until the second election of 2019, Netanyahu is aiming to repeat the late-campaign magic that has propelled him to come-from-behind victories before. In a weekend outburst calling for a boycott of Israel's leading television channel, Netanyahu named individual journalists, news executives and company shareholders as taking part in a "terror attack against democracy." It was a dramatic escalation in the long-time war he's been waging against the local media, which he routinely accuses of conspiring against him.
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| Iran unveils jet-powered precision drone Posted: 01 Sep 2019 09:14 AM PDT  Iran on Sunday unveiled a jet-propelled drone it said is capable of finding and attacking targets far from the country's borders with precision. Dubbed the "Kian", the unmanned aerial vehicle was designed, produced and tested by experts of the air defence force within about a year, said the head of the force, Brigadier General Alireza Sabahifard. The drone comes in two models capable of "surveillance and reconnaissance missions and continuous flight for precision missions", state news agency IRNA quoted him as saying. "This drone can undertake any drone missions we entrust it with... it can fly more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) and find its target with precision," he said. The newly launched UAV can carry different munitions and can climb to an altitude of 5,000 metres (15,000 feet), according to state television. "This unmanned aircraft is capable of hitting targets far from the country's borders and undertaking air defence from the enemy's territory," said Brig-Gen Sabahifard. The unveiling comes at a time of rising tensions with the United States, which have escalated since last year when US President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions. Iran shot down a US Global Hawk drone with a surface-to-air missile in June for allegedly violating its airspace, an accusation the United States denies.
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| Merkel allies suffer double blow in German regional elections Posted: 01 Sep 2019 09:01 AM PDT ![Merkel allies suffer double blow in German regional elections]( "Merkel allies suffer double blow in German regional elections") Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and her Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners bled support to the far right in two state elections in eastern Germany on Sunday, dealing a double blow to her already unstable ruling alliance. Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) remained the largest party in Saxony, but saw their share of the vote drop by 7.4 points from the last election in 2014 to 32%, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming second, an exit poll for broadcaster ARD showed. The AfD harnessed voter anger over refugees and the planned closure of coal mines in the formerly communist eastern states, casting themselves as the heirs of the demonstrators who brought about the fall of the Berlin Wall three decades ago.
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| RPT-Merkel allies suffer double blow in German regional elections Posted: 01 Sep 2019 09:01 AM PDT ![RPT-Merkel allies suffer double blow in German regional elections]( "RPT-Merkel allies suffer double blow in German regional elections") Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and her Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners bled support to the far right in two state elections in eastern Germany on Sunday, dealing a double blow to her already unstable ruling alliance. Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) remained the largest party in Saxony, but saw their share of the vote drop by 7.4 points from the last election in 2014 to 32%, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming second, an exit poll for broadcaster ARD showed. The AfD harnessed voter anger over refugees and the planned closure of coal mines in the formerly communist eastern states, casting themselves as the heirs of the demonstrators who brought about the fall of the Berlin Wall three decades ago.
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| More than 100 killed after Saudi-led airstrike in Yemen Posted: 01 Sep 2019 09:01 AM PDT  More than 100 people are believed to have been killed in an air strike by the Saudi-led military coalition on a detention centre in Yemen, the International Committee of the Red Cross said Sunday. The coalition said it targeted a facility run by the Huthi rebels that "stores drones and missiles", but the rebels said the attack had levelled a building they used as a prison. The ICRC rushed to the scene in the city of Dhamar with medical teams and hundreds of body bags. "The location that was hit has been visited by ICRC before," Franz Rauchenstein, its head of delegation for Yemen, told AFP from Dhamar. "It's a college building that has been empty and has been used as a detention facility for a while." "What is most disturbing is that (the attack was) on a prison. To hit such a building is shocking and saddening - prisoners are protected by international law." Rauchenstein said that over 100 people were estimated to be dead, and that at least 40 survivors were being treated for their injuries in hospitals in the city, south of the capital Sanaa. ICRC teams collecting bodies were also "working relentlessly to find survivors under the rubble", he said, but cautioned that the chances of finding any were very slim. Footage obtained by AFP showed heavy damage to the building and several bodies lying in the rubble, as bulldozers worked to clear away huge piles of debris. The coalition intervened in 2015 to support the government after the Iran-aligned Huthis swept out of their northern stronghold to seize Sanaa and much of Yemen - the Arab world's poorest nation. Fighting since then has already claimed tens of thousands of lives and sparked what the United Nations calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Both sides stand accused of actions that could amount to war crimes.
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| The Latest: Israel says firing ends along Lebanese border Posted: 01 Sep 2019 08:58 AM PDT  The Israeli military says the latest round of fighting with Hezbollah appears to be over. Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a military spokesman, told reporters Sunday that Hezbollah militants fired two or three anti-tank missiles toward an Israeli army base. Israel also deployed a military helicopter.
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| Hong Kong protesters clash with police in airport and shut down roads as calls grow for British protection Posted: 01 Sep 2019 08:43 AM PDT  Pro-democracy protesters obstructed access to the Hong Kong airport on Sunday after police arrested dozens the night before and deployed water cannon and tear gas in response to activists lobbing petrol bombs and bricks. Activists snarled road and rail links, erecting barriers and flooding stations en route to the airport, while shouting: "Stand with Hong Kong, fight for freedom!" Others drove slowly on purposes to hinder traffic. Some built barricades outside the airport, dispersing in a flash when riot police charged and aggressively pinned people down to make arrests. The plan was to re-create mass chaos last seen in mid-August when a five-day occupation of the airport – one of the world's busiest transport hubs – led to hundreds of flight cancellations. Scenes briefly turned violent when protesters assaulted two men from mainland China and clashed with riot police. "The Hong Kong airport is extremely important to the city in terms of the economy, and tourism," said Toby Pun, 23. "I hope this will force the government to respond." Hong Kong - How the protests spread Although some flights were cancelled, most still took off as scheduled on Sunday, the planes roaring above protesters' heads. Sunday's actions came just one day after some of the city's most intense clashes this summer. Activists marched in the rain through several neighbourhoods before chucking Molotov cocktails and projectiles at government offices and police headquarters. Police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets, and water cannon laced with blue dye to help identify, and possibly arrest, protesters later. By nightfall, officers shot two live rounds into the sky as warnings while protesters lit a strip of stadium seats on fire, setting ablaze a main road and sending black smoke billowing around brightly lit skyscrapers. Protests first kicked off early June against an extradition proposal that would have sent people to face trial in mainland China, where Communist Party influence contributes to a 99.9 per cent conviction rate. Demands have since expanded to include greater political accountability and wider democratic freedoms, plunging Hong Kong into its worst political crisis in decades. After largely being reactive and at times blindsided by protesters' flash mob tactics, police in recent days seem to be getting better at anticipating and thwarting them. Hundreds of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists attempted to block transport routes to the city's airport Credit: LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP/Getty Images Police stood on guard at the airport Sunday morning, placing heavy water barriers around entrances and only allowing passengers through. Later in the day, several teams were spotted at ferry piers and train stations in efforts to catch retreating protesters. The nearly 1,000 arrests made are starting to weigh on protesters, with many encouraging each other to flee quickly when police arrive to prevent being cuffed themselves. Closures of the city's subway stations have also impeded protesters' mobility to arrive at rallies and to flee the scene. By early afternoon Sunday, the city's subway operator shut the airport express line and a number of bus links were down, forcing demonstrators, passengers, flight attendants, and journalists to walk more than three miles to the airport from the closest subway station that remained open. A visitor from Taiwan rushing to return home said the disruption didn't bother him. "Protesting is the right of citizens," said Mr Liu, 35, declining to give a full name. "If the flight is delayed, then we will stay at the airport and support the protesters," said Peter, a Hong Konger who left early and walked nearly an hour to get to the airport. A policeman beats a protester in the men's toilet inside Hong Kong International Airport Credit: Chris McGrath/Getty Images Despite escalating violence and disruption to daily life in Hong Kong, known for being an efficient global business centre, the youth-driven political movement has until now continued to draw wide public support. "I've attended most protests since June," said a woman who gave her name as Miu, 58. "Those teenagers – they have been really kind. One day when police threw lots of tear gas, a really young protester, only 20, took off her gas mask and gave it to me." But that may not remain the case with increasing disruptions to regular life and school due to star this week, which could keep activists – many of whom are students – off the streets. To prevent that, a citywide strike has been called as well as a boycott on the first few days of university and secondary school classes. Calls are also growing for the UK to pressure Beijing to uphold the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which kicked in when Hong Kong was returned to Chinese rule and guaranteed the Communist system would not be practiced in the territory for at least 50 years. Firefighters extinguish a fire at a road block during a protest in Hong Kong Credit: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg In the central business district, hundreds also gathered Sunday outside the British Consulate, waving the Union Jack flag and holding signs that read "SOS," calling on the UK to recognise that freedoms were disappearing. "The UK government is not standing up or doing enough, and just lets the Chinese government speak," said Shirley Lo, 22, "I feel like they left us behind here and didn't take enough action for us." Some also chanted, "Make Hong Kong British again!" and "We love British, we are British, equal rights for BNO!" demanding the right to live and work in the UK for holders of the British National Overseas passport. Introduced in the last decade of colonial rule, the BNO passport, with its burgundy cover and coat of arms, looks like a regular British passport but doesn't provide holders with the right of abode, long a point of contention. "If people from the EU leave the UK because of Brexit, we can fill in the labour market," said Rex Wong, 42, whose entire family of four holds BNO passports. "Hong Kong people are hard-working, intelligent… We can help make the UK better." Many at the rally, however, avoided questions from the Telegraph about why they looked to the UK for support, even though life under British rule was harsh for some Hong Kong people. But it was clear that they remembered the colonial era with a more positive lens than that of current Chinese rule. Hong Kong has long had a complicated relationship with the UK, though many have long attributed a robust capitalist system and strong rule of law to the British. MP Tom Tugendhat, and chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, has called on the UK to treat BNO holders as UK citizens. "It would right a wrong we should never have implemented, and give people living there options," he wrote in a comment piece for the Telegraph last month. Additional reporting by Michael Zhang
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| Iranian oil tanker pursued by US off the coast of Syria Posted: 01 Sep 2019 08:17 AM PDT  An Iranian oil tanker pursued by the U.S. across the Mediterranean Sea slowed to a near-stop Sunday off the coast of Syria, where America's top diplomat alleges it will be unloaded despite denials from Tehran. The ongoing saga of the Adrian Darya 1, formerly known as the Grace 1, comes as tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran over its unraveling nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran is set to send a deputy foreign minister and a team of economists to Paris on Monday for talks over ways to salvage the accord after a call between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and French President Emmanuel Macron.
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| Israel fires across border after anti-tank missiles launched from Lebanon Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:22 AM PDT  Israel said it was returning fire Sunday after anti-tank missiles were launched at its territory from Lebanon, raising fears of a serious escalation with Hizbollah after a week of rising tensions. "A number of anti-tank missiles were fired from Lebanon towards an (Israeli military) base and military vehicles," an Israeli army statement said. "A number of hits have been confirmed. (Israel's military) is responding with fire towards the sources of fire and targets in southern Lebanon." After the initial reports of fire from Lebanon, a military spokesman called on Israelis living within four kilometres (2.5 miles) of the Lebanese border to remain at home and prepare shelters. Tensions have risen in the last week between Israel and its enemy Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia movement backed by Iran. Tension between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hizbollah continues to escalate Credit: ATEF SAFADI/EPA-EFE/REX Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said Saturday the group's response to an alleged Israeli drone attack on the group's Beirut stronghold had been "decided". The pre-dawn August 25 attack involved two drones - one exploded and caused damage to a Hizbollah-run media centre and another crashed without detonating due to technical failure. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the incident. The attack in Lebanon came just hours after Israel launched strikes in neighbouring Syria to prevent what it said was an impending Iranian drone attack on the Jewish state.
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| Iran Envoy Heads to France as Paris Leads Fix to Nuclear Crisis Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:08 AM PDT ![Iran Envoy Heads to France as Paris Leads Fix to Nuclear Crisis]( "Iran Envoy Heads to France as Paris Leads Fix to Nuclear Crisis") (Bloomberg) -- Efforts by France and Iran to salvage the nuclear deal are gaining momentum as Tehran sends its special envoy back to Paris this week while signaling it could be edging closer to a plan to restore some of its oil exports.On Monday President Hassan Rouhani's special representative and deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, will head an economic delegation on his second trip to France in less than six weeks, continuing the most substantive negotiations between Iran and a Western power since U.S. President Donald Trump exited the 2015 nuclear deal last year.Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is also slated to visit Moscow tomorrow for talks with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov. The latest diplomatic push to stave off a crisis that has threatened security in the Persian Gulf -- a critical route for global oil shipments -- comes just before a Sept. 6 deadline by which Iran has vowed to scale back, for a third time, its compliance with the landmark accord."Talks between Iran and the Europeans will continue," Zarif said in an interview to ICANA, the official news service of Iran's parliament. "If by Thursday the Europeans don't take the needed measures then, in accordance with what we previously announced, we will write a letter to the Europeans explaining to them what our third step entails."According to Mahmoud Vaezi, Rouhani's chief of staff, Araghchi's Paris talks will focus on a plan proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron to resolve the standoff between Washington and Tehran. It follows a two-hour phone call between the two leaders on Saturday in which they discussed banking, economic and political matters, Vaezi said on state TV.Araghchi said Saturday that discussions between Trump and Macron at the G7 summit last week "have shown flexibility with regard to Iran's oil," according to the semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency. Trump said at the meeting in Biarritz that he'd support extending a letter of credit to Iran, secured against oil sales."Tehran will be extremely cautious about what Europeans can deliver on their own without a U.S. green light," said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "But for now at least, given Trump's messaging at the G7, it seems the French have got the U.S. green light on pushing forward with the economic package they have been discussing with the Iranians."Both Tehran and Paris "are looking forward to a resolution and an end result," Vaezi said, reiterating that talks with the U.S. are impossible while Washington maintains its so-called maximum pressure strategy on Iran, including sanctions on its economy.(Updates with foreign minister's comments and Moscow trip.)To contact the reporter on this story: Abbas Al Lawati in Dubai at aallawati6@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Lin Noueihed at lnoueihed@bloomberg.net, Michael Winfrey, Michael GunnFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iranian official mocks Trump with 'good morning selfie' after president tweets out image from secret intelligence briefing Posted: 01 Sep 2019 06:41 AM PDT  Donald Trump has found himself trolled on Twitter by a top Iranian official after he controversially tweeted a classified photograph taken by a US surveillance satellite.The US president posted the high-resolution aerial image of a smouldering launch pad surrounded by a plume of black smoke - complete with annotations - late on Friday, apparently the result of a failed rocket catching fire at the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran's Semnan province.
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| Germany Seeks Forgiveness From Poland 80 Years After WWII Start Posted: 01 Sep 2019 04:58 AM PDT ![Germany Seeks Forgiveness From Poland 80 Years After WWII Start]( "Germany Seeks Forgiveness From Poland 80 Years After WWII Start") (Bloomberg) -- Germany made an emotional appeal for forgiveness to neighboring Poland 80 years after the start of World War II that was met by a renewed demand for reparations by the fellow European Union member's prime minister.U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, filling in after a cancellation by President Donald Trump, praised Poland's wartime heroism at the commemoration and said the evils of Nazi and Communist totalitarianism amounted to a period in history when men had "forgotten God."German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, visiting the town of Wielun, Poland, where Nazi bombers caused the first large-scale civilian casualties of the conflict in an air raid on Sept. 1, 1939, said his country won't forget the past and takes responsibility for the war's terror and atrocities."I bow my head before the victims of the attack on Wielun, I bow my head in front of the Polish victims of German tyranny and ask for forgiveness," Steinmeier said, first in German and then in Polish, at an event hosted by his counterpart Andrzej Duda.The ceremonies to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of the world's bloodiest conflict gathered about 40 delegations in Warsaw on Sunday, including Pence, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump canceled, saying he was needed in the U.S. as Hurricane Dorian threatened to cause widespread damage in the southern Atlantic states.'Twisted Ideologies'In his speech near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Warsaw, Pence said "no one fought with more valor, determination and righteous fury than the Poles" during the world's bloodiest conflict.Poland's Duda said the world hasn't learned its lesson from World War II, mentioning genocides in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, as well as recent territorial incursions by Russia in Ukraine and Georgia.Pence condemned the "twisted ideologies" of the the 20th century, which led to "the death squads, the concentration camps, the secret police, the pervasive lies of state propaganda machines, the destruction of churches and the endless hostility to people of faith."At a separate ceremony in Gdansk commemorating an attack on Poland from the Baltic Sea, Polish Premier Mateusz Morawiecki returned to the controversial topic of wartime reparations. He called on his nation's western neighbor and biggest trading partner to take "responsibility" for the economic costs of its invasion and occupation.Earlier this year, a Polish special parliamentary group published a preliminary study that showed the six-year conflict may have cost the Polish economy more than $850 billion -- or nearly two years of the eastern European country's output. The German government has said all claims were settled long ago.Compensation Demand"We have to remember the victims and we have to demand compensation," Morawiecki said.Unlike western European nations that settled World War II claims in the decades after the war, Poland says it was effectively prevented from doing so by its communist-era overlord Moscow. Poland signed its post-war border treaty with Germany only in 1990, a year after the Iron Curtain came down.Calls for reparations from the 1939-1945 conflict, during which about 6 million Poles -- half of them Jews -- were killed, have soured ties between Warsaw and Berlin since 2017. Poles claim that a 1953 declaration by communist authorities wasn't a sovereign decision but one made by a puppet regime of the Soviet Union.The one-sided declaration was made "in accord with the constitutional order of that era, and amid potential pressure from the Soviet Union, and can't be recognized," the Polish government said in 2004.(Updates with Pence's comments from second paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Marek Strzelecki in Warsaw at mstrzelecki1@bloomberg.net;Justin Sink in Washington at jsink1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrea Dudik at adudik@bloomberg.net, Wojciech Moskwa, Michael WinfreyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| U.K. Opposition to Propose Law to Stop No-Deal Brexit on Tuesday Posted: 01 Sep 2019 04:33 AM PDT ![U.K. Opposition to Propose Law to Stop No-Deal Brexit on Tuesday]( "U.K. Opposition to Propose Law to Stop No-Deal Brexit on Tuesday") (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit on Twitter, join our Facebook group and sign up to our Brexit Bulletin.The U.K. opposition Labour Party will present legislation this week aimed at stopping the country from leaving the European Union without a deal.Lawmakers "are now looking to see how on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week we can introduce a legislative measure which will enable us to prevent a no deal without parliamentary approval," opposition Treasury spokesman John McDonnell said on the Sky News program Sophy Ridge on Sunday. "The ultimate goal this week is to secure parliamentary sovereignty."Prime Minister Boris Johnson caused outrage by suspending Parliament for most of September and almost half of October as he continues negotiations with the EU for a new withdrawal agreement. He also unveiled billions of pounds of new spending on education, social care and transportation, adding to speculation that he's preparing for an election.Thousands of people on Saturday joined protests across the U.K. against the decision to suspend Parliament. The demonstrators used the slogan "Stop the Coup" to send their message that the move is undermining centuries of democracy by limiting debate.Johnson and his senior aides are discussing whether to deny party affiliation to Tory members who join with Labour's Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to block a no-deal Brexit, according to the Sunday Times. Former Justice Minister David Gauke, who will meet the prime minster on Monday with others who oppose crashing out without new arrangements, said it might be a price worth paying."Sometimes there is a point where you have to judge between your own personal interests and the national interest, and the national interest has to come first," he told Sky. "But I hope it doesn't come to that."Some Conservative Party members being threatened with expulsion took exception to Johnson's threat, pointing out that they voted with the government on the Withdrawal Agreement while many current ministers did not.Labour's Keir Starmer said that the proposed legislation would force an extension of the Brexit deadline, though didn't say exactly how. With less than a week before Parliament is adjourned, "this is almost certainly the last chance," he told the BBC.Michael Gove, the government minister responsible for no-deal Brexit planning, refused to rule out simply ignoring Parliament's instructions. When asked in a BBC interview if there would be food shortages or if food prices would go up, he said, "people will have the food they need."Johnson is promising that the U.K. will leave the EU on Oct. 31 "do or die." The EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said he's "not optimistic" about avoiding no deal in an opinion piece for theTelegraph newspaper.While Gove said he hopes there isn't an election on the horizon, his and Johnson's Conservative Party extended its lead over Labour in the latest Daily Mail poll. When McDonnell was asked if he were ready for an election, he said, "Bring it on."To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, James Amott, Amy TeibelFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UPDATE 3-UK lawmakers against no-deal Brexit to bring forward legislation Posted: 01 Sep 2019 04:01 AM PDT ![UPDATE 3-UK lawmakers against no-deal Brexit to bring forward legislation]( "UPDATE 3-UK lawmakers against no-deal Brexit to bring forward legislation") British lawmakers opposed to a no-deal Brexit will attempt to pass a law this week to stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson from letting Britain crash out of the European Union on Oct. 31, the opposition Labour Party's Brexit spokesman said. Senior minister Michael Gove refused, however, to guarantee the government would abide by any such legislation.
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| World War II Started 80 Years Ago: Here are 5 Places World War III Could Start Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:22 AM PDT  KEY POINT: The flashpoints may change over time, but the fundamental foundations of conflict—the decay of U.S. military hegemony and of the global international order that has accompanied it—mean that the near future will likely become more hazardous than the recent past.The world has avoided war between major power war since 1945, even if the United States and the Soviet Union came quite close on several occasions during the Cold War. In the first two decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall, great power war seemed virtually unimaginable. Today, with China's power still increasing and Russia's rejection of the international order apparently complete, great power conflict is back on the menu.In what is slowly becoming a tradition here at TNI (see my predictions for 2017 and 2018) what are the most dangerous flashpoints to watch in 2019?The South China Sea:The South China Sea (SCS) has become wrapped into the growing trade clash between the United States and China. For now, that conflict is playing out in exchanges of heated rhetoric, tariffs and various other trade sanctions. The United States and Canada recently escalated the conflict by arresting an executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei, which led to counter-steps by China against Canadian citizens and U.S. firms.(This first appeared last year.)As of yet the United States and China have not drawn a tight connection between the trade war and the ongoing disputes in the SCS. However, as relations between the two countries deteriorate, one or the other might decide to escalate beyond dollars, words and legal filings. Indeed, if China and the United States conclude that their trade relationship (which has provided the foundation of global economic growth for the last two decades) is at substantial risk, and similarly conclude that further conflict is inevitable, then either might decide to "take off the gloves" in the SCS.Ukraine:The world remembered Ukraine when an incident at the passage into the Sea of Azov resulted in shots fired, a ramming and the detention of two Ukrainian patrol vessels. Whether instigated by Russia or Ukraine (and both governments appear to have played some part), the interception reignited tensions in a crisis that has smoldered for the last couple of years. The declaration of martial law by the Ukrainian government suggested the possibility of unrest in Ukraine.To be sure, Russia seems to lack any interest in disrupting the status quo ahead of the Ukrainian elections, while the Ukrainian government continues to lack the capacity to consequentially change facts on the ground. The upcoming elections will probably not change the basic equation, but could introduce uncertainty. Given the continuing tensions between Russia and the United States, even a small shift could threaten the uneasy balance that has held for the last several years, potentially throwing Eastern Europe into chaos.Persian Gulf:The perpetual political and military crisis in the Middle East has settled into an uneasy tedium. Economic pressure on Iran continues to increase, as the United States take ever more aggressive steps to curtail trade. The Saudi war on Yemen shows no signs of abating, and while the Syrian Civil War has dialed down to a low, slow burn, both the United States and Russia remain committed to their partners and proxies.But like any slow burn, the conflict could reignite. Political turmoil in Iran could destabilize the region, either pushing Iran into aggressive behavior or making the Islamic Republic a tempting target for its enemies. The tensions between Kurds, Turks, Syrians and Iraqis could break into open conflict at any time. Finally, the mercurial leader of Saudi Arabia has demonstrated time and again a proclivity for risk acceptance, even as whispers about the stability of the Kingdom grow louder. Given the strategic importance of the region, any instability could lead to conflict between the United States, Russia or even China.Korean Peninsula:It is undoubtedly correct that tensions on the Korean Peninsula have declined a great deal in the last year, as Kim Jong-un has demonstrated a degree of forbearance regarding nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and President Donald Trump has toned down his rhetoric about confronting North Korea. And indeed, the prospects of an enduring peace are surely brighter now than at any time since the mid-1990s.And yet serious pitfalls remain. The president has staked his prestige on an agreement with North Korea, yet by most serious accounts North Korea has not suspended, or even slowed, its production of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. President Trump's advisors are aware of and unhappy about this fundamental contradiction. If Trump sours on Kim, if elements of the administration try to spoil any agreement, or if Kim sours on Trump, the relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could go sour very quickly. Moreover, neither China nor Japan are fully on board with reconciliation between South Korea and a fully nuclear North Korea, although their reasons for skepticism are quite different. All told, the situation in Korea remains much more dangerous than the most optimistic assessments would suggest.Unpredictable?As a colonel at the U.S. Army War College memorably phrased the problem, "the United States has wrongly predicted every conflict since the Korean War. Why should we expect World War III will be any different?" Great powers tend to devote diplomatic, military, and political resources to what they regard as the most serious conflicts on their plates. Less critical conflicts don't receive as much attention, meaning that they can sometimes grow into serious confrontations before anyone quite notices what's going on. Disruptive conflict could emerge in the Baltics, in Azerbaijan, in Kashmir or even in Venezuela, but the United States, China and Russia only have so much focus. If World War III comes about, it may well come from a completely unexpected direction.Final Thoughts: Is the world more dangerous today than it was a year ago? Perhaps not, although the decay of the relationship between China and the United States portends ill for the future. The flashpoints may change over time, but the fundamental foundations of conflict—the decay of U.S. military hegemony and of the global international order that has accompanied it—mean that the near future will likely become more hazardous than the recent past.Robert Farley, a frequent contributor to TNI, is a Visiting Professor at the United States Army War College. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
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| This NATO Ally Could Buy Russia's Deadly Su-35 or Stealth Su-57 Fighter Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:20 AM PDT  As the Su-57 inches closer to serial production, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken the unprecedented step of personally pitching the upcoming fifth-generation fighter to Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the MAKS 2019 Air Show.Doubling down on what The National Interest previously described as the Russian President's increasingly proactive role in advertising the Su-57 to prospective buyers, Putin treated Erdogan to an ice cream cone after the two mounted an elevated platform to inspect the onboard electronics of a Su-57E-- the export variant of the Su-57. Putin was accompanied by a cadre of United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) officials, on hand to continue the trade negotiations with Erdogan's delegation. Erdogan was shown a flight routine performed by three different Russian fighters-- not coincidentally, all of which are currently being considered by the Turkish defense industry as prospective import options: a Su-34 tactical strike fighter, Su-35 air superiority fighter, and four Su-57's.Tailoring their pitch to Turkey's fifth-generation aircraft procurement priorities, the presentation stressed the Su-57's stealth capabilities; particularly, that it reduces observability by housing the bulk of its weapons payload in internal storage bays.When queried by Erdogan if the Su-57 is for sale, a smiling Putin responded: "yes, you can buy it."Putin's sense of immediacy may appear somewhat premature given that the Su-57 has barely even entered serial production, with the first serial unit scheduled for delivery later this year. However, it is crucial to understand that Russia is playing a long-term developmental game with the Su-57; signing a contract with Ankara would not only provide funds that can then be reinvested into Russia's domestic Su-57 supply chain, but an early contract with a major arms trade player such as Turkey would give the Su-57 a stamp of import approval in difficult, ongoing negotiations with India and China. It remains to be seen if the Su-57E can be mass-produced in sufficient quantities to satisfy Turkey's import needs and early 2020's delivery timeframe.Nevertheless, the Kremlin and the Russian defense industry are not hinging their all of their fighter export ambitions on the Su-57 alone.In a joint press conference held later that day, Putin offered the Su-35 as an alternative to the Su-57: "We talked about cooperation on the Su-35 and even on the possible work on the new Su-57 plane. We have plenty of options and we have demonstrated new weapon systems and new electronic warfare complexes." There are also some preliminary indications that Turkey is considering the Su-34, which is due to receive a modernization package over the coming years.In keeping with the Turkish policy line over the past several months, Erdogan indicated a general interest in Russian military aircraft while playing his cards close to his vest on any specific procurement plans: "The joint production [of S-400 air defense systems] is a major step in relations with Russia. There were a lot of rumors on this issue but we didn't pay the slightest attention to them… We want to spread our solidarity in this area to all the other spheres of the defense industry. This may also apply to military planes."The Kremlin's continued courting of Ankara at MAKS 2019 comes at a time when Erdogan's government is searching for an alternative military aircraft procurement path after being ejected from the F-35 program earlier this summer for purchasing Russia's S-400 missile defense system. The US Defense Department, which revoked Turkey's F-35 partner status earlier this summer, remains open to reversing its decision on the increasingly unlikely condition that Turkey gets "rid of the S-400 program and completely out of the country." Image: Reuters.
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| Dear Britain, Where Did It All Go So Wrong? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:44 AM PDT ![Dear Britain, Where Did It All Go So Wrong?]( "Dear Britain, Where Did It All Go So Wrong?") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Dear Britain,Please excuse the rest of us for our sheer disbelief: we were never expecting a constitutional crisis, let alone protests around the country. You are making Italy's political system look like a model of composure, and that's not something to be taken lightly.For years, we have admired your parliamentary democracy, with its eccentric rituals and timeless ceremonies. The brutality of Prime Minister's Question Time was compulsory watching well before the age of social media; the speaker, with his cries of "order, order", a reminder of what respect should mean in politics. Westminster was a model to look up to: A check on governments and a cradle for good arguments. We were envious, looking in despair at the quality of our own politicians.The Brexit referendum and its aftermath have smashed our illusions. For a start, we were curious that one of the oldest representative democracies in the world would use a plebiscite to make such a momentous decision. Of course, there is the precedent of the 1975 vote to remain in what was then the European Economic Community to look back to. So we accepted this was just another eccentricity that happens every half a century or so – even if we knew deep down this was really just a way to solve a bitter conflict within the Conservative Party.In between all the lies spat out by the "Leave" campaign, there was one argument which was impossible to discard: The desire to let Westminster have a greater voice again, for laws to be made not in a distant chamber in Brussels, but closer to home. It sounded so noble. "The Brits really do care about their parliament," we told ourselves. "If they want to suffer economic damage and risk a more diminished role in the world for the sake of having a greater say over their laws, who are we to blame them?"Because for many years, British politicians were the first to wave their democratic fingers at what was going on in the rest of Europe. They caricatured the EU as an anti-democratic moloch crushing the will of national parliaments from Greece to Italy. When Italy's lawmakers installed Mario Monti as a technocratic prime minister to avert a potential national bankruptcy, this was seen as an outrage. So too was the decision by Greece's government in 2015 to accept a new bailout from international creditors. The hashtag "ThisIsACoup" circulated widely – turning what was going on in Athens into a cause celebre.Now we see Boris Johnson suspending parliamentary democracy for the sake of showing that he is serious about a no-deal Brexit. New elections – which would be the third in four years – loom in what was once the land of political stability. Sure, there are precedents (there always are) and the government sees this is as only way to ensure politicians respect the will of the people. But make no mistake, for countries that have gone through dark periods of dictatorship, the sight of a parliament shuttered at such a momentous turning point isn't pretty. That it happens in Britain, in Westminster, is stunning.There is another virtue that we foreigners have learnt to appreciate about Britain: pragmatism. After all, in the venerable House of Commons, the government and the opposition are said to sit two swords and an inch apart as a reminder that honorable members should strive to seek resolutions by peaceful means. Surely the British political can do better than to resolve this conflict by shutting down debate.Please do so. The rest of us in Europe are anxiously waiting.(Corrects description of vote in fourth paragraph.)To contact the author of this story: Ferdinando Giugliano at fgiugliano@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns on European economics for Bloomberg Opinion. He is also an economics columnist for La Repubblica and was a member of the editorial board of the Financial Times.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Dear Britain, Where Did It All Go So Wrong? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:44 AM PDT ![Dear Britain, Where Did It All Go So Wrong?]( "Dear Britain, Where Did It All Go So Wrong?") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Dear Britain,Please excuse the rest of us for our sheer disbelief: we were never expecting a constitutional crisis, let alone protests around the country. You are making Italy's political system look like a model of composure, and that's not something to be taken lightly.For years, we have admired your parliamentary democracy, with its eccentric rituals and timeless ceremonies. The brutality of Prime Minister's Question Time was compulsory watching well before the age of social media; the speaker, with his cries of "order, order", a reminder of what respect should mean in politics. Westminster was a model to look up to: A check on governments and a cradle for good arguments. We were envious, looking in despair at the quality of our own politicians.The Brexit referendum and its aftermath have smashed our illusions. For a start, we were curious that one of the oldest representative democracies in the world would use a plebiscite to make such a momentous decision. Of course, there is the precedent of the 1975 vote to remain in what was then the European Economic Community to look back to. So we accepted this was just another eccentricity that happens every half a century or so – even if we knew deep down this was really just a way to solve a bitter conflict within the Conservative Party.In between all the lies spat out by the "Leave" campaign, there was one argument which was impossible to discard: The desire to let Westminster have a greater voice again, for laws to be made not in a distant chamber in Brussels, but closer to home. It sounded so noble. "The Brits really do care about their parliament," we told ourselves. "If they want to suffer economic damage and risk a more diminished role in the world for the sake of having a greater say over their laws, who are we to blame them?"Because for many years, British politicians were the first to wave their democratic fingers at what was going on in the rest of Europe. They caricatured the EU as an anti-democratic moloch crushing the will of national parliaments from Greece to Italy. When Italy's lawmakers installed Mario Monti as a technocratic prime minister to avert a potential national bankruptcy, this was seen as an outrage. So too was the decision by Greece's government in 2015 to accept a new bailout from international creditors. The hashtag "ThisIsACoup" circulated widely – turning what was going on in Athens into a cause celebre.Now we see Boris Johnson suspending parliamentary democracy for the sake of showing that he is serious about a no-deal Brexit. New elections – which would be the third in four years – loom in what was once the land of political stability. Sure, there are precedents (there always are) and the government sees this is as only way to ensure politicians respect the will of the people. But make no mistake, for countries that have gone through dark periods of dictatorship, the sight of a parliament shuttered at such a momentous turning point isn't pretty. That it happens in Britain, in Westminster, is stunning.There is another virtue that we foreigners have learnt to appreciate about Britain: pragmatism. After all, in the venerable House of Commons, the government and the opposition are said to sit two swords and an inch apart as a reminder that honorable members should strive to seek resolutions by peaceful means. Surely the British political can do better than to resolve this conflict by shutting down debate.Please do so. The rest of us in Europe are anxiously waiting.(Corrects description of vote in fourth paragraph.)To contact the author of this story: Ferdinando Giugliano at fgiugliano@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns on European economics for Bloomberg Opinion. He is also an economics columnist for La Repubblica and was a member of the editorial board of the Financial Times.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Merkel’s Coalition Partner Open to Debt-Spending Boost: FAS Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:20 AM PDT ![Merkel's Coalition Partner Open to Debt-Spending Boost: FAS]( "Merkel's Coalition Partner Open to Debt-Spending Boost: FAS") (Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government should be open to raising debt to counter an economic slump, a leading lawmaker from her junior coalition partner said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung."We should take advantage of the opportunities offered by a long period of low interest rates," Rolf Muetzenich, the interim caucus head of the Social Democrats, said in an interview with the newspaper published Sunday. "We have to act practically. The banking crisis of 2008 has shown that the state must counteract a dip in the economy. We will make the decisions wisely, when needed."Muetzenich's comments are the latest sign that Germany's rigid adherence to its balanced-budget policy is softening, as its economy teeters on the brink of recession. While the government is expecting a recovery toward the end of the year, Merkel's administration is preparing fiscal stimulus measures that could be triggered by a deep recession, people with direct knowledge of the matter have said.Amid persistent criticism and doubts about the stability of Merkel's government, the senior SPD politician called the coalition's work "very convincing."A planned review of the alliance between Merkel's CDU-led bloc and the Social Democrats needs to focus on what the parties can still accomplish together in the next two years, he said, referring to open issues in climate policy, infrastructure, digitalization and Europe."When Social Democrats can assert their ideas and make people's lives better, that is always a strong argument" to remain in the coalition, said Muetzenich.To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Reiter in Berlin at creiter2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Rachel Graham, James AmottFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Johnson Unveils More Spending as Election Looms: Brexit Update Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:17 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged billions of pounds for education, social care and transportation, and warned Conservative lawmakers to get behind his Brexit plan or face losing their party affiliation.Key Developments:Johnson to meet rebel Conservative MPs on MondayPrime minister tells Sunday Times: "The fundamental choice is this: are you going to side with Jeremy Corbyn and those who want to cancel the referendum?"Barnier writes he's "not optimistic" about avoiding no-deal BrexitGove Won't Say If Government Would Obey Rebel Law (10 a.m.)Michael Gove, the minister responsible for no-deal preparations, wouldn't say if Johnson's government would abide by any legislation passed by rebels that blocks a no-deal Brexit. He told the BBC that the opposition's aim was just to overturn the referendum result and that the British public doesn't want any more delays. He said he hoped that the U.K. isn't headed for another general election.He also insisted that the government is making progress in negotiations with the EU, and said that as well as removing controversial measures around the Irish border from the existing deal, the government wanted changes to the political declaration to state an ambition to have a free-trade deal between the U.K. and the EU.If there isn't a deal, there won't be food shortages, he said, though prices may go up.Starmer: Focus is On Law to Block No-Deal (9.45 a.m.)Labour Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said he's focused on getting legislation through this week that will prevent a no-deal Brexit from happening. He didn't give many details, but said the focus was on a simple law that would force the government to seek a further Brexit delay if it didn't have a deal. In any case, he said, Labour is ready for all scenarios.McDonnell: Labour's Ready to Fight an Election (9 a.m.)Labour Party economy spokesman John McDonnell said people are angry about Johnson's move. Speaking on Sky News, he said the country is on a slippery slope if the prime minister is allowed to close down Parliament because he might lose a vote. Parliament should have a final say on Brexit, he said.While he doesn't rule out a vote of no confidence, McDonnell said the immediate goal is to preserve Parliamentary sovereignty and prevent a no-deal Brexit. If that means a general election, "bring it on," he said.Gauke: Johnson Wrong to Suspend Parliament (8:45 a.m.)Former cabinet minister David Gauke told Sky News that the prime minister is wrong to try to sideline members of parliament, since the government should be receiving more scrutiny than usual rather than less now. He also said it's "not sensible" to threaten Conservative rebels with expulsion if they vote against the government.Gauke said he and other potential rebels will meet Johnson on Monday. He said he wanted to hear the prime minister's plans for alternative plans for the Irish border. If the U.K. isn't ready to leave the EU on Oct. 31, then the deadline should be extended, he said.But Gauke said he was unlikely to support a no-confidence vote, because he viewed a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn as too much of a risk.Barnier 'Not Optimistic' on Avoiding No-Deal Brexit (overnight)The European Union's chief negotiator Michel Barnier is "not optimistic" about avoiding a no-deal Brexit scenario, he wrote in an opinion piece for The Telegraph.Earlier:To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Robert HuttonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Check Out China's Alamo: How Just a Small Amount of Troops Took on a Japanese Army Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:15 AM PDT  The Sino-Japanese War of 1937 had begun in a haphazard manner. Throughout the 1930s the Japanese military, imbued with an aggressive "samurai" spirit and rabid ultra nationalism, gained the upper hand in Japanese politics. On October 27, 1937, the Zhabei district of Shanghai began to burn, an enormous conflagration that stretched for five miles and filled the northern horizon from end to end, almost as far as the eye could see. The orange-yellow flames greedily consumed buildings and their contents, finishing the destruction already begun after three months of intense fighting between the Chinese and Japanese armies. Thick coils of smoke reached 3,000 feet into the air, obscuring the skies of central China. It was a spectacle never to be forgotten by those who witnessed it—the funeral pyre of a great city.Some of the fires came from the fighting, but most had been deliberately set to cover the Chinese Army's retreat. The outnumbered Chinese had resisted gallantly, but many units now were reduced to mere shadows of themselves. When word came that the Japanese had gained ground outside the city and were threatening the Chinese flank, there was no other choice but to withdraw.One unit was deliberately left behind, entrenched around a concrete warehouse just opposite the International Settlement. The officers and men of the 524th Regiment, 88th Division, knew only too well that their mission was suicidal, that they were being sacrificed to showcase Chinese courage, but they accepted their fate stoically. Their ordeal, which had started on October 26, would continue for another four days of brutal fighting, and the defense of Sihang Warehouse would rivet the attention of the world, with the American press quickly dubbing it "the Chinese Alamo."Recommended: China's H-6K: The 'Old' Bomber That Could 'Sink' the U.S. NavyRecommended: Why an F-22 Raptor Would Crush an F-35 in a 'Dogfight'Recommended: Air War: Stealth F-22 Raptor vs. F-14 Tomcat (That Iran Still Flies)The Impromptu Sino-Japanese War of 1937The Sino-Japanese War of 1937 had begun in a haphazard manner. Throughout the 1930s the Japanese military, imbued with an aggressive "samurai" spirit and rabid ultra nationalism, gained the upper hand in Japanese politics. In 1932 the Japanese seized Manchuria, China's rich northern province, and set up an "independent" government under the last emperor of China, Henry Pu Yi. It was a transparent ploy, mere window dressing to cover naked aggression, and few nations in the world community were fooled by it. The major powers, however, particularly Great Britain and the United States, were too preoccupied by the deepening economic depression to do more than lodge a few feeble and ultimately ineffectual protests.China was in turmoil in the 1930s, torn asunder by Japanese aggression from without and internal dissension from within. The country was ruled by the Nationalist Party under Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek. Chiang was a pragmatic soldier-politician whose main obsession was the destruction of the Communists under Mao Zedong. To Chiang, Mao and his followers were like a deadly disease infecting the Chinese body politic. Chiang's Communist preoccupation was a godsend to Japanese militarists. After 1932 there was a series of incidents between the Chinese and Japanese, with the Chinese usually granting concessions and territory to the aggressors. Having digested Manchuria, Japan was still ravenous, nibbling away at the rest of China throughout the decade.On July 7, 1937, a Japanese soldier went missing near Beijing. Eventually, the soldier returned unharmed (reports said he had been visiting a brothel). But local Japanese officers, always ready to find a pretext for open aggression, demanded restitution for the alleged kidnapping. If the usual pattern had held true, the Chinese would have granted more concessions, territory, or whatever else the Japanese wanted. But this time the Chinese flatly refused—a line had been drawn in the sand.Intense fighting between the two sides broke out and quickly escalated into a major conflict. The Japanese soon occupied Beijing and large parts of northern China. The 1937 war was entirely unplanned, but, once begun, the Japanese were confident it would be a quick one. They hoped so. More than anything, the Japanese military did not want to be drawn south, because just across China's northern borders lay the Soviet Union, which the Japanese rightly considered a deadly enemy.The Generalissimo's ArmyChiang Kai-shek had other plans. The great Yangtze River of central China nourished the heartland of the nation and the center of its developing economy. China's economic and political capitals, Shanghai and Nanking, were located there. Chinese troops in Shanghai had fought the Japanese to a standstill in 1932; Chiang had every reason to believe he could repeat their performance. As a first step, he began pouring troops into Shanghai, including the crack 87th and 88th Divisions. German equipped and trained—they even wore the distinctive steel helmets soon to be familiar in World War II—the Chinese troops were elite forces who proudly bore the title, "the Generalissimo's Own."The Chinese Nationalist Army—formally titled the National Revolutionary Army of the Republic of China—was a juggernaut on paper, boasting some 1.7 million men. Unfortunately, the bulk of the Chinese Army was made up of of semi-illiterate peasants who were poorly uniformed, trained, and equipped. Only around 300,000 men, some 40 divisions, were sufficiently equipped and trained to have a fighting chance against the ramrod-stiff Japanese Army. Of these, some 80,000 were members of the Generalissimo's Own.In the mid-1930s, Shanghai was the richest, most progressive, and most decadent city in Asia. The city's core was dominated by foreigners, a legacy of China's troubled past. The International Settlement was ruled by a British-dominated Municipal Council, hard-headed businessmen whose primary interest lay in making a profit. The nearby French Concession was ruled as an out-and-out colonial possession of France and generally conveyed a kind of Gallic aloofness. Greater Shanghai was ruled by Chiang's central government. When the war broke out, it was Greater Shanghai that was to see the bulk of the fighting.The International Settlement figured prominently in Chiang's overall plans. The Chinese could attack the Japanese garrison at Shanghai's Honkou district, which was small and vulnerable. A success at the Settlement's very doorstep would underscore China's strength and resolution in the face of Japanese aggression. There was even the possibility that the western powers, particularly Great Britain and the United States, would intervene on China's behalf. Accordingly, Chiang began pouring troops into the Shanghai region, including the elite 87th and 88th Divisions. Soon, there were upward of 50,000 Chinese soldiers in position. Consternation reined in the Japanese high command; they had no wish to be drawn into central China when northern operations were still in full swing. But the Chinese, as Chiang intended, had forced their hand.The Battle of ShanghaiOn August 12, Colonel Charles F.B. Price of the U.S. 4th Marine Regiment conferred with American Consul-General Clarence Gauss and British Brig. Gen. Alexander Telfer-Smollett about the looming Shanghai crisis. At the same time, the Shanghai Municipal Council mobilized the Shanghai Volunteer Corps and formally requested support from the British and American garrisons. Under a long-standing arrangement, code-named Plan A, British troops from the Shanghai Area Force and American marines would man a defensive perimeter along the Settlement's borders. The Suzhou Creek border was of particular concern, because Zhabei, the Chinese district just beyond, had been the scene of brief but bloody fighting in 1932. Because the water table was only a foot or two below Shanghai streets, trenches could not be dug, and millions of sandbags had to be trucked into the area. Barbed wire was strung and sandbags stacked to form blockhouses, walls, and machine-gun emplacements. As marines and tommies moved into position, thousands of Chinese civilians poured over the bridges spanning Suzhou Creek, seeking refuge from the inevitable clash. Once the perimeter was manned, it was simply a matter of watching and waiting for the Japanese to appear.The wait proved to be a short one. Around 9 am on August 13, Chinese troops exchanged small-arms fire with Japanese units. The Japanese responded in kind, and the Chinese 88th Division retaliated with heavy mortar attacks. Japanese Admiral Kioshi Hasegawa's Third Fleet vessels, which were on station in the Yangtze and Whangpoo Rivers, opened up with thunderous salvos. The Battle of Shanghai had begun.On August 14, the Chinese began a major offensive, an attack that was designed to push the Japanese into the Whangpoo River. They almost succeeded. The outnumbered Japanese were mainly bluejackets and marines from the Special Naval Landing Force. It seemed as if the modern-day samurai were about to be humiliated at the hands of the despised Chinese. To be defeated in battle, and to have that defeat witnessed by the Western powers, was too much for the Japanese to bear. Soon, massive help was on the way. The Shanghai Expeditionary Army, under General Iwane Matsui, was assembled and sent to China immediately. It was a powerful force, built around the 3rd and 11th Divisions and totaling some 300,000 men, 300 guns, 200 aircraft, and the powerful presence of the Japanese Imperial Navy. The expeditionary forces made successful amphibious landings along the northeast coast at Boashan and elsewhere, and in so doing lengthened the battlefront. It now extended from Shanghai's city center, down the length of the Whangpoo, finally ending at the northeast coast area where the river emptied into the mighty Yangtze.The newly landed expeditionary force tipped the balance in favor of the Japanese. Because the battle front had widened, Chiang was forced to send troops to other locations. The Chinese offensive, poised on the very brink of success, ground to a halt. Superior Japanese weaponry also began to make itself felt, particularly artillery fire, tanks, and aerial bombardment. Ten Chinese soldiers died for every Japanese, but the Chinese refused to be broken. For some units, casualty rates of 1,000 an hour were not uncommon.A War "Between Races"The battle for Shanghai became a slaughterhouse, a stalemate that conjured memories of Verdun and the Somme. "It was no longer," a witness said, "a war between armies, but between races. With mounting fury the two giants sprang at each other's throat." The Chinese held out for the next three months, and the fighting was particularly heavy at Zhabei, just across from the International Settlement. The Settlement was a kind of neutral zone, where foreign reporters could observe the battle from relative safety. American journalist Emily Hahn and friends would go to the tower room atop the Cathay Hotel and watch the battle while sipping cocktails before dinner. Others congregated atop the Park Hotel and other such establishments, viewing the spectacle as if it were some Fourth of July pageant staged for their benefit.Guests were warned not to go onto hotel roofs because shrapnel and bomb fragments were always peppering the air. Since the Chinese still held Nantao, on the other side of the Settlement and the French Concession, Japanese artillery would risk an international incident by arcing shells over the foreign-held area, a distance of some four miles. Settlement residents became inured to the once-frightening sound of shells going over their roofs, which one woman likened to the sounds of a freight train.By the end of October, the Chinese Army was being bled white, but the stalemate continued. The Japanese concentrated their effort at Dachang, a little village six miles northwest of Shanghai proper and a key point in the Chinese line. Some 700 Japanese artillery pieces opened up, followed by massive air raids by 150 bombers. Smashed beyond recognition, the little "chicken village," so named because it supplied much of Shanghai's poultry needs, fell to the enemy on October 25.Fortifying the Chinese Mint GodownOnce there was a breach in the defense line, the Chinese flank was exposed. There was nothing to do but retreat in good order, withdrawing behind the south bank of Suzchou Creek as rapidly as possible. That meant abandoning the positions in Zhabei that had been held at such a huge cost in blood and treasure. Whole sections of the Zhabei district were in ruins, and shell-cratered streets and skeletal buildings reeked with the stench of smoke, cordite, and decomposing bodies.Chiang Kai-shek was a realist, but he was loath to abandon Shanghai. He knew that a Nine-Power Conference was going to convene in Brussels on November 6, and he still retained hope that Western interests would intervene. China had to show that it was worthy of help, so another sacrifice must be made. A rear guard would hold out as long as possible, simultaneously demonstrating Chinese courage and buying time for the main army to escape.His mind made up, Chiang ordered General Gu Zhutong to leave the 88th Division behind as a rear guard. Gu thought this was a terrible waste of one of China's best units, which already was decimated by three months of fighting. Nor did General Sun Yuanliang, the 88th's commander, want to see the whole division sacrificed on the altar of political expediency. It was finally agreed that a single regiment of the 88th would be left behind, while the rest of the division would be allowed to retire and regroup.The forlorn task was given to the 524th Regiment, which was posted near some of the heaviest fighting at the North Railway Station. Lt. Col. Xie Jinyuan volunteered to command the regiment in its suicidal mission. After some hurried consultations, it was decided that Sihang Warehouse would be the spot where the 524th's last stand would take place. This was a six-story warehouse that had been a joint venture by four banks (in Chinese "Sihang" means "Four Banks"). Westerners knew the place as the Chinese Mint Godown.It was an ugly, strictly utilitarian structure, but its thick, reinforced concrete walls were perfect for defense. The warehouse was literally on the edge of Suzchou Creek, the meandering waterway that separated Chinese Shanghai from the foreign-controlled International Settlement. British troops sheltering behind their sandbagged defenses had a grandstand seat for the coming battle. The warehouse was on Tibet Road, which continued on into the International Settlement across the New Lese Bridge that spanned Suzchou Creek.Xie placed his troops with care. Makeshift fortifications were created just outside the warehouse building, consisting mainly of sandbags and sacks of corn, beans, and other goods that had been stored there. First Company took up positions on the left, along Tibet Road, while Third Company was stationed on the road to the right, just opposite the Bank of Communications building. Second Company fanned out to protect the warehouse's other three sides. Two heavy machine guns were placed on the roof, and other machine guns were distributed among the defenders on the ground.The Japanese Launch Their First AssaultsWhen the Japanese realized the enemy was in full retreat, they cautiously probed forward. By 1 pm on October 27, advance elements were approaching the vicinity of the warehouse. After some preliminary exchange of fire, a Japanese company attacked the warehouse from the west. They were met by determined resistance from Third Company. At one point, some 70 Japanese soldiers took shelter in a blind spot just to the southwest. It was indeed a blind spot—but only to defenders on the ground. Chinese soldiers on the roof spotted the cluster of Japanese and lobbed grenades down on their heads. Seven Japanese soldiers were killed and another 20 wounded from this deadly "rain." Captain Shi Meihao, commander of Third Company, was shot in the face during the fighting, but refused to relinquish command. Although blood was coursing down his face and soaking his uniform, he refused to withdraw until he was wounded again, this time in the leg.The first Japanese assault was a failure, but before calling it a day, they set fire to the northwest corner of the warehouse; the defenders managed to put out the flames. About 9 pm, Xie, believing there would be no more Japanese attacks, ordered the men to cook dinner and repair fortifications. Two defenders had been killed and four wounded, while Japanese losses had been about 20 killed and an unknown number of wounded. The Sihang defenders faced the Japanese 3rd Division, considered one of the best of the Imperial Japanese Army. They also had mortar teams, artillery, and armor—probably Type 94 Te-Ke tankettes. The battle on October 27 was just an overture to the coming symphony of destruction.The morning of October 28 saw the skies filled with the steady drone of aircraft engines—Japanese bombers flew overhead, but after a couple of aborted passes they were forced to return to their base. Sihang Warehouse was simply too near the International Settlement to risk full-scale bombing. The last thing the Japanese wanted was to blow up Western observers and cause an international incident. The Japanese also wanted to use mustard gas, but they were being watched too closely by Western newsmen and British soldiers to get away with it.At 8 am, Xie inspected the defenses and gave impromptu pep talks to his men. It was during one such roof inspection tour that a party of Japanese soldiers was seen creeping along Suzhou Creek. Xie interrupted his speech, grabbed a rifle, and took aim at one of the distant enemy soldiers. Drawing a bead, he pulled the trigger with a steady hand. A second later, a Japanese soldier fell into the rubble.The Japanese occupied the Bank of Communications building and launched a heavy assault on the west side. Chinese rifle and machine-gun fire sprayed lead into the oncoming brown-uniformed masses, but they refused to yield. The attack finally broke off after two hours. The Japanese had gained little, but did manage to cut off the warehouse's water and electricity.The warehouse was now flanked on three sides, but the fourth side—the side that faced Suzchou Creek and the British Royal Fusiliers' positions in the Settlement—was left conspicuously open. The British also kept the New Lese Bridge open, which was a possible escape route for the beleaguered defenders. When Japanese soldiers tried to creep in on the fourth side, British tommies on the opposite bank trained their Lee-Enfield rifles at them. The Japanese got the message; they withdrew, and the fourth side remained open.The "Lost Battalion"Normally there were over 1 million Chinese residents in the International Settlement, but their numbers had been swollen by hundreds of thousands of refugees. News of the heroic last stand was spread by radio reports and word of mouth. Soon, thousands of ordinary Chinese citizens, protected by the Settlement's neutrality, could watch the battle unfold before their eyes. It became a kind of bizarre sporting event, with Chinese spectators crowding Suzchou Creek's banks to cheer on the defenders. At times an estimated 30,000 Chinese joined British soldiers and other Westerners to watch the show. When the crowds saw a Japanese movement, they would pass on the information to the defenders via enormous message signs in characters large enough to be read from a distance.Whenever the Japanese had a setback or the defenders gained a temporary upper hand, loud cheers would erupt from the watching crowds. But support was more than visual. More than 10 truckloads of supplies were donated to help the men besieged in the warehouse. Food, fruit, clothing, utensils, and even personal letters were delivered under cover of night. Xie also arranged with British officers to evacuate the wounded to the safety of the International Settlement.Earlier, a teenaged girl guide named Yang Huimin had been instrumental in passing messages back and forth between the besieged warehouse garrison and the Shanghai Chamber of Commerce in the Settlement. On the evening of October 28-29, the brave young woman brought over a national flag, emblem of the Chinese Republic. Because there was no flagpole, two bamboo poles were lashed together for the purpose. The red-and-blue banner was hoisted into place atop the roof, while thousands of Chinese spectators across the creek cheered and shouted, "Long Live the Chinese Republic!"The battle for Sihang Warehouse was fought on two fronts—on the battlefield and in the court of public opinion. It was clear that the Japanese were losing, even as they made gains elsewhere. Foreign journalists, scenting a good story, flocked to Sihang Warehouse to report every detail. The press romantically dubbed the 524th Regiment the "Lost Battalion."At one point, Xie was asked to produce a list of every man in the garrison. In that way, should they fall, their names would be remembered. But Xie feared the information would eventually fall into Japanese hands. The wily colonel gave out a regimental roster that dated from the beginning of the war, when the regiment numbered some 800 effectives. In reality, the Sihang Warehouse was defended by only 411 men, including 16 officers.When Japanese Admiral Tadeo Honda was interviewed by foreign newsmen, he grudgingly called the defenders "more or less heroes." Oddly enough, all the phone lines into the warehouse remained intact, and defenders could call out at any time. The Japanese issued an ultimatum: surrender or be wiped out. Xie was unimpressed. In a message to his superior, General Sun, he radioed defiantly: "Death is an unimportant question. The sacrifice of our lives will not be in vain.""They Must Die That China Can Live"Infuriated by the continued resistance and particularly the flag-raising ceremony, the Japanese set October 29 as the day for an all-out assault. The eyes of the world were upon them, and they were losing face. They opened with a heavy barrage of light artillery, exploding shell after shell against the warehouse's concrete sides. Soon, ugly craters appeared on the walls, smudged and blackened with smoke and jagged with twisted reinforcing rods. Concrete rubble was everywhere, and the air was heavy with the stench of cordite and dust.The west side of the building lacked windows, but Japanese shell hits had punched enough gaps into the wall to provide the defenders with loopholes. The Japanese, acting in concert with infantry, then brought forward tankettes. The fighting grew so heavy the Chinese Third Company was pushed back from its position and forced into the warehouse. Japanese infantry came forward with scaling ladders, a curious throwback in an age of mechanized war. The Chinese simply pushed the ladders off or peppered the advancing enemy with rifle and machine-gun fire. Xie personally lent a hand, fighting alongside his men. The Japanese seemed on the brink of success. Desperate times called for desperate measures, and one Chinese defender wrapped grenades around his body and jumped into the midst of a group of Japanese soldiers, detonating the grenades and killing himself and 20 of the enemy. The Japanese attack was beaten back.The Sihang defenders' morale was high, but the foreign observers in the Settlement had had enough. Misaimed bullets and shell fragments were falling in their midst, and with the battle escalating by the hour, it was feared that the fighting would spill over into the International Settlement. The British offered to broker a peaceful settlement that would end the warehouse siege. General Telfer-Smollett was a key player in the delicate negotiations, but he found his proposals a tough sell. The Chinese flatly refused to withdraw the men. Madame Chiang Kai-shek, American-educated and a power within the Chinese government, said coolly, "They must die that China can live." The "victory or death" rhetoric surprised and dismayed Western observers.The battle opened again in the early morning hours of October 30. This time the Japanese were not about to squander precious infantry in a headlong frontal assault—they were going to pound the "lost battalion" into submission with artillery. Japanese batteries opened up about 7 am and continued to fire throughout the day. At its greatest intensity, shells were coming literally every second, producing a cacophony that shattered the nerves and numbed the eardrums. Night fell, but the artillery barrage continued without letup. Japanese searchlights stabbed the sky, the probing beams fixing the battered warehouse to provide gunners a better target. The defenders grimly held on, helped by the thick concrete walls and the Japanese reluctance to use heavy artillery or bombs.Withdrawal Under British Covering FireBehind the scenes, Telfer-Smollett was still trying to convince Chiang Kai-shek to let the men retreat from Sihang Warehouse. The Generalissimo finally consented. The main Chinese Army already had successfully withdrawn, and the heroic stand had amply demonstrated Chinese courage to the world. There was no need to fight to the last man. The Japanese commander, General Matsui, agreed to the developing deal, which would allow the Sihang men to retreat into the International Settlement via the New Lese Bridge. There was to be a truce and cease-fire during the withdrawal, which was to start at midnight on November 1.The subsequent withdrawal was marred by bad faith on the part of the Japanese. As the Sihang men left the warehouse and crossed the bridge, the Japanese suddenly opened up with machine-gun fire and artillery, raking the bridge with a hail of lead and forcing the Chinese to run through a gauntlet of fire. This was too much for the Royal Fusiliers, who manned a sandbagged pillbox that anchored and protected the Settlement side of the bridge. The British tommies were emotionally on the Chinese side, and were also tired of taking misguided Japanese fire without a chance to defend themselves. Four British soldiers had already been killed and another six wounded by stray Japanese bullets.The British pillbox gave the Chinese covering fire, although this was strictly against orders and violated the Settlement's official neutrality. A Japanese machine gun was put out of action by British bullets, and Xie and 376 of his men managed to escape successfully. Telfer-Smollett had been sheltering behind the Chinese Bank during the withdrawal; he now greeted the heroes as they crossed over into the Settlement. Xie was the last to leave the warehouse and the last to cross the bridge into safety. Tears coursed down his cheeks as he accepted accolades from the British soldiers. He had not wanted to leave at all, and only did so under orders. Telfer-Smollett, overcome with emotion, exclaimed, "I have never seen anything greater!"Political Fallout of the "Lost Battalion"Cheated of their prey, the Japanese quickly reneged on the agreement. The "lost battalion" would absolutely not be allowed to retreat though the Settlement and rejoin the main Chinese Army. The Japanese would only consent if the solders left as refugees, abandoning all weapons, including the light and heavy machine guns they had brought with them. Xie flatly refused. Instead, battalion members were forcibly disarmed and interned by the Municipal Council. There was little else Settlement authorities could do, since by the time some 300,000 Japanese troops completely surround the foreign enclave, and the threat of an invasion was very real.Japan engaged in diplomatic temper tantrums for the next week, refusing to attend the Nine-Power Conference and claiming that quantities of fresh food were found in the Sihang Warehouse after the siege. This, they said, was proof that Telfer-Smollett and the British were secretly aiding the Chinese. The British brushed off the allegations, but Japan's relations with Britain and the United States continued to sour. A Chinese collaborationist government was established at Shanghai, and in April 1941, Xie was assassinated by four of his own soldiers acting as agents of the new government. After the war, an elementary school was renamed in his honor.This article originally appeared on the Warfare History Network.Image: Wikimedia
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| UN refugee chief urges India to ensure no one left stateless Posted: 01 Sep 2019 02:07 AM PDT  The top U.N. refugee official has urged India to ensure that no one is left stateless by the exclusion of nearly 2 million people from a citizenship list in Assam state. Filippo Grandi, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, voiced his concern in a statement issued Sunday in Geneva.
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| Beware, U.S. Air Force: Is Iran Building Its Very Own S-300 Air Defense System? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 01:30 AM PDT  On August 22, Iran unveiled to much fanfare its Bavar-373 mobile long-range air defense system in a Defense Industry Day event attended by President Hassan Rouhani. In a speech, he elucidated at length on the rationale behind the weapon's nomenclature by comparing it to Russian surface-to-air missiles."Its number is between 300 and 400. It's 373. In any case, his system is stronger than the S-300 and very close to the S-400." The latter is arguably the most capable long-range surface-to-air missile system on the planet, and the former is its well-respected predecessor.Iran also shared launch footage of the Bavar-373's Sayyad-4 missiles, which supposedly is capable against targets ranging from jet bombers and fighters, stealth aircraft, drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles. Tehran claimed the system remains effective under all weather conditions, and is hardened against jamming and nuclear/biological/chemical threats.Iran's chief military threat comes in the form of air and missile strikes from the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. This explains why the deployment of an ostensibly top-tier system is receiving such hype.Back in 2007, Iran first sought to import five batteries of Russian S-300PMU-1 (NATO codename SA-20 Gargoyle) air defense systems, which can engage aircraft up to ninety-three miles away. But even as Iranian technicians were training to operate the S-300PMU, in 2010 then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev elected to block the sale as part of international sanctions imposed in response to Tehran's nuclear research program.A year later, Iran announced it would instead develop its own S-300-inspired system, called the Bavar ("Belief") 373. Tehran periodically reported the successful tests and progress, and first displayed the new missile batteries to the public in August 2016.Earlier the same year, with the easing sanctions due to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, Russia went ahead and delivered four S-300PMU2 batteries, each of which constituted four launch vehicles and two radar vehicles.However, Iran continued to develop the Bavar-373, reportedly intending to procure as many as a dozen batteries. When on May 18, 2018, an Israeli airstrike caused a huge explosion Syria's Hama Airbase, regional media reported the target was a Bavar 373 missile truck deployed there by the IRGC. However, this claim didn't square with the general impression that the Bavar was still in the final phases of development.Meet the Bavar-373 BatteryLike the S-300, a Bavar-373 battery incorporates over a half-dozen off-road capable trucks. These missiles and radars are coordinated via a six-wheeled Fakour command post vehicle, which can reportedly network radar coverage with that of other nearby SAM batteries using an encrypted communication system called Rasoul.The Bavar's two radars are carried on eight-wheeled Zafar trucks: an S-Band acquisition radar for spotting aircraft at a distance, and a shorter-range but more precise X-Band fire control radar that guides missiles to their targets. Both are supposedly Active Electronically Scanned Array radars, which are harder to detect and have higher resolution.Iran also has showcased a third radar, the massive Meraj-4 ("Ascension") S-Band phased array radar which is mounted on a ten-wheeled Zoljanah truck. The Meraj-4 reportedly can track 100 targets simultaneously up to a distance of 217 miles (or even around 300 miles according to some sources) and uses a probabilistic "fuzzy logic" algorithm to more reliably estimate the positions of distant contacts. The Meraj-4 uses solid-state modules, and reportedly possesses a variety of defenses against jamming and other forms of electronic countermeasures.Though the Meraj-4 is not organic to a Bavar-373 battery as is sometimes claimed, it's nonetheless designed to interface with Bavars to improve target queuing.Up to six ten-wheel-drive Zoljanah tactical trucks serve as launch vehicles, each carrying four boxy ribbed launch canisters.Like the S-300PMU, the Bavar has vertical launch system which doesn't require the missiles to be "pointed" towards their targets. However, while the Russian system uses is a "cold launch" SAM which ejects the missiles out of their cylindrical launch tubes before igniting their rocket motors, video footage shows the Bavar 2 is a "hot-launch" vehicle in which the rocket motor begins blazes away inside the square-shaped canister.The missiles in question are roughly seven-meter-long Sayyad-4s, a weapon visibly evolved and enlarged from American SM-1 naval anti-aircraft missiles sold to Iran just prior to the Iranian Revolution. An Iranian general has claimed they incorporate vector-thrust technology to increase their maneuverability while intercepting missiles. Two other unspecified types of missiles are also said to be compatible, perhaps for short- or medium-range intercepts.Altogether, a Bavar-373 supposedly can simultaneously engage up to six targets up to 155 miles away with twelve missiles. Multiple missiles are likely to be fired at an individual target to increase the probability of a kill.The weapon's claimed engagement ceiling of 88,000 feet may aid in intercepting ballistic missiles or high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) surveillance drones like the Pentagon's RQ-4 Global Hawks that are known to cruise at such altitudes.But is it for real? On paper, the Bavar-373 seems capable, but it's hard to have confidence in Tehran's claims due to a track record of grossly exaggerating, or even outright fabricating its home-built military systems. Nonetheless, Iran's SAMs at least stand up better to visual scrutiny than other Iranian wonder weapons, and are far more affordable and realistic solutions for the Iranian military than fantastical stealth fighters.Claims of the Bavar-373's anti-ballistic missile and anti-stealth capacity begs further inquiry. For example, shooting down ballistic missiles, like Saudi Arabia's Chinese-built DF-3s, requires very fast and precise interceptor missiles. And stealth fighters can be detected using low-band surveillance radars, and/or coordinating multiple bistatic radars. Networking the Meraj-4 radar with the Bavar-373's fire-control radar may potentially facilitate such an exploit.Even if the Bavar-373 is as capable as Tehran claims, they would struggle to prevail in the face of a full-scale aerial bombardment campaign by the United States, which along with the Israeli Defense Force, has extensively practiced methods for dismantling air defense systems. The Pentagon's anti-SAM toolkit notably includes AGM-88 HARM missiles designed to home in on radar emitters, F-35 stealth fighters designed to penetrate defended airspace, EA-18G Growler jets carrying powerful radar jammers, and AGM-158 JASSM stealth cruise missiles.Nonetheless, weapons like the S-300 or the Bavar-373 make executing such a campaign more difficult, expensive and time-consuming, and increase the risks of incurring losses. They also make smaller-scale strikes more difficult to execute, requiring the use of more expensive and resource-limited stealth aircraft and standoff munitions.Thus while Iran's improving air defenses don't put Iran in a position to win a war, they do improve Tehran's conventional deterrence by increasing the risks, complications and costs of resorting to air strikes, protracted or otherwise.Sébastien Roblin holds a master's degree in conflict resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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| UK's Labour says no deal legislation will be tabled Tuesday Posted: 01 Sep 2019 01:07 AM PDT ![UK's Labour says no deal legislation will be tabled Tuesday]( "UK's Labour says no deal legislation will be tabled Tuesday") Plans for legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be published on Tuesday, Britain's opposition Labour treasury spokesman John McDonnell said on Sunday. "Don't underestimate how difficult it is to legislate within a week, the Prime Minister knows that and that's why he's proroguing parliament," he told Sky News. "MPs with decades of experience are now looking to see how on Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday of next week we can introduce a legislative measure which will enable us to prevent a no-deal without parliamentary approval.
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| Hitler Had One Last Card To Play to Win World War II (And It Was Awful) Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:47 AM PDT  What all of them feared most was a second 1918-style collapse of the German state from within, an internal-type revolt that had toppled Kaiser Wilhelm II when the German Army was still fighting in the field on the Western Front.On October 18, 1944—the 131st anniversary of the Battle of the Nations' victory over Napoleon in 1813—Reichsführer-SS (National Leader) Heinrich Himmler stepped up to a microphone to make a national radio address announcing the formation of the Nazi Party-controlled Volkssturm, or People's Militia.Standing with him was the new Chief of the General Staff, General Heinz Guderian; Dr. Hans Heinrich Lammers, head of the Reich Chancellery in Berlin; and Gauleiter (Regional Leader) Erich Koch. The site of the address was at Bartenstein, East Prussia, on Koch's turf, and he was already organizing his own local forces to fight the Red Army coming from the East.Indeed, conjuring up images of the 1813 War of Liberation against the defeated French, the new VS had already won its first victory over the Soviets on October 7 at Memel, Lithuania, which the Nazis had taken in 1939.Creating the Volkssturm From the Ashes of Operation Valkyrie Guderian had come into office the day after the failed bomb explosion to kill Adolf Hitler, and the latter had virtually lost most of his faith in the regular German armed forces to win the war. The radical Nazis—Dr. Josef Goebbels, Dr. Robert Ley, Himmler, and most of all Reich Leader and Secretary to the Führer Martin Bormann—were urging Hitler to turn to the very force that had brought him to power in the first place: the Nazi Party and its various organizations.Recommended: The 5 Biggest Nuclear Bomb Tests (From All 6 Nuclear Powers).Recommended: How Israel Takes U.S. Weapons and Makes Them Better.Recommended: North Korea's Most Lethal Weapon Isn't Nukes.What all of them feared most was a second 1918-style collapse of the German state from within, an internal-type revolt that had toppled Kaiser Wilhelm II when the German Army was still fighting in the field on the Western Front. It was their belief that the Party had rebuilt the state from that catastrophe starting anew in 1933, and now—11 years later—a similar program of rejuvenation was to be the order of the day.This time, there would be no home front failure, and thus on September 25, 1944, Hitler, through the use of his familiar "Führer Decree," announced the creation of the Volkssturm and Himmler's control of the organization; Bormann would be in charge of the administrative issues.Thus, right from the start, there was the divided leadership that would plague the VS until the very end of its days in the defense of smoldering Berlin—in which it played at least half a part. Hitler, like his rival, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, had the leadership style of giving several different men the same functions, believing that competition would make them perform better and get the overall job done faster. This was also the overall leadership principle of the Nazi Party as a whole.Bormann's VSThe key individual, from inception to ultimate VS demise, was Bormann. In his unique position of being at the Führer's elbow night and day, he had Hitler's ear on virtually everything and thus was able to convince Hitler to create the VS along the lines of the 1813 Home Guard, and also to place it under Lammers's Reich Chancellery. Bormann believed that only the Party could run the VS properly and ensured that service in it was mandatory for all civilian German males between the ages of 16 and 60.This included the all-important Class of 1928—those who would turn 17 in 1945—the 550,000 boys of Artur Axmann's Hitler Youth, literally the final remaining military manpower pool of Nazi Germany. The older men—ridiculed as "Grandpas" by the younger generation—were veterans of World War I or those who had already fought in World War II and been wounded.The VS would be organized on the model of the 42 Gaue, or Regions, of the Third Reich, all controlled by Bormann as virtual domestic dictator while Hitler ran the war. This had been the setup ever since Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, and thus Bormann understood his task thoroughly, governing the Reich via teleprinter, telegraph, radio, and telephone from wherever Hitler's "Führer Headquarters" happened to be. He would rule the VS through the Gau, Kreis (county), and Ortsgruppenleiters (town leaders).In Bormann's mind, the VS would fight like the sturdy Japanese in the Pacific: to the last man, bullet, and breath. The nature of Bormann's vision for the VS was unity overall, Party control, and formations based on the members' place of residence. The last factor was all important in his view, as he believed that it was critical to the fighting success of the VS as a combat unit that would be called into action when the enemy arrived at the edges of their towns and cities, most of which had been officially declared "fortresses" by the Führer anyway.The Führer Decree of September 25 gave the Gauleiters the power to organize the VS in their domains, which included more than 800 counties in the Reich proper. The average age of those who served (the national oath-taking was conducted on November 12, 1944) was between 45 and 52, and Bormann—aping Hitler, here–– refused to call up women, unlike the Soviets. Of those men who were called up, most were white-collar workers, unaccustomed to the harsh life of a soldier in the field.Marksmanship vs Antitank WeaponsOn November 27, 1944, Himmler took command of Army Group Upper Rhine, thus making him Bormann's first serious rival for power, as both wanted to succeed Hitler as Führer. Each reasoned that if they were able to win the war for Germany, they would accede to the mantle, and there was, indeed, some logic in their positions. As it turned out, Himmler's tenure as commander was brief, as he proved to be completely incompetent in the position.Even though Bormann irritated Himmler by referring to the units as "my VS," it was a top SS man—General Gottlob Berger—who was chief of staff of the Volkssturm and who reported directly to Himmler, not Bormann. Indeed, it was Berger who announced that the VS would be trained and ready for combat against the Russians and Western Allies no later than March 31, 1945.In training, Berger wanted individual rifle marksmanship stressed for the civilian warriors, while Bormann opted instead for small antitank weapons with which to defeat the masses of Russian T-34s and American M-4 Sherman tanks. In the end, Bormann prevailed, and in this instance his view was militarily sound as events were to prove, especially in the defense of Berlin and other German cities.The citizen-soldiers trained on weeknights and for six hours on Sundays, and what rifle training was provided was given by SA Chief of Staff Wilhelm Schepmann's brownshirted Stormtroopers. Schepmann had wanted a real wartime role for the SA ever since 1939, and he saw the VS as a way of achieving it at the expense of the SS (its hated rival since 1934), the Party, and the German Army (which it had wanted to replace as early as 1930).Hitler and Bormann, too, saw this danger, and they were not about to let Schepmann achieve an ambition that had eluded the murdered SA leader Captain Ernst Röhm in the Blood Purge of June 30-July 2, 1934. Thus, Schepmann would be allowed to arm and train the VS but not lead it.Nor would Dr. Josef Goebbels in his capacity as Hitler's appointed Reich Plenipotentiary for Total War. Despite the famous wartime newsreels of the leather-coated propaganda minister reviewing VS troops passing on parade, his role with the Volkssturm was really quite minimal, except for exhorting them to fight for Berlin, of which he was Gauleiter.Then there was the National Socialist Motor Corps led by Erwin Kraus that provided courier motorcyclists and truck drivers to transport the VS men to their sites, as well as units of the Nazi Fliers Korps (NSFK)."Wars Were Winner-Take-All Affairs"It seemed that every Party organization wanted its finger in the VS pie, and for a very simple reason, then and now still incomprehensible to those in the West: the Nazis believed that the war could still be won!First, from Hitler on down, the true Nazis took it as an article of faith that racially pure Germans of good stock would defeat the tainted Slavs from the steppes of Russia and the corrupt Americans, British, and Canadians from the West. Dr. Goebbels's propaganda screamed its slogans: "Never again, 1918! Our walls may break, but our hearts never!"The citizen-soldiers of the Third Reich—indoctrinated as true believers—would also be fighting for their own homes and families on German soil, and the threat from the East also induced in the Germans of East Prussia the very real fear of Red Army retaliation for the atrocities that had been committed by the Germans in the USSR during 1941-1944.As one historian put it, "Wars were winner-take-all affairs." To the Nazis, negotiations equaled weakness and surrender. In this respect, Hitler, Bormann, and Goebbels were far more "Nazi" than either or both Himmler and Reich Marshal Hermann Göring, who in the end in 1945 wanted to treat with the enemy.Thus, especially after the failure of the July 20 assassination attempt—when, in their eyes, the traitors had been unmasked—the Nazis wanted to renew—not end—the fighting. It is significant to note that more people in Europe died after July 20, 1944, than in all of the five years of war before it."Scorched Earth"To the Nazis, the VS was both a valid and rational response to the events of 1944-1945, just as the rise of the Party itself had been to the fall of Imperial Germany in 1918-1920. Indeed, if anyone's morale would collapse, it would be that of the Allies, not the German people led by the Nazi Party under Hitler.Ironically, too, as the German armies retreated—and this included the battered Waffen SS as well—so, too, did the power of the Party increase within the borders of the pre-1939 Greater German Reich; thus, as Himmler lost power, Bormann gained it.By the spring of 1945, Himmler ceased to be a real factor in VS power struggles and was replaced in these battles by Hitler's Minister of Armaments and War Production, Albert Speer, who was working hand in glove with the German armed forces—mainly the Regular Army—to prevent the Führer's decreed "scorched earth" policies designed to make the Third Reich an industrial wasteland of no use to any conquering army.Speer—unlike hardliners Himmler and Göring—was not a true Nazi in the Hitler-Goebbels-Bormann mold and saw for himself a role as the rebuilder of the Fourth Reich under the auspices of the Western Allies at least.The Volkssturm's Ties to the WehrmachtIn the end, however, Bormann's concept of the Volkssturm was undone by the very people he wanted to protect it from the most, and from whom he expected the least danger—the officers and men of the German Army in whose sphere of operations the individual VS units fell.The primary reason for this was that the Party simply could not and did not supply the VS with the weapons, uniforms, and supplies that it needed, while the regular military most often did. Wherever the VS and the military worked well together, the morale was good, absenteeism down, discipline maintained, and training heightened. Thus, much to his chagrin, Bormann was faced with a situation in which the Army delivered where the Party had failed.The reason for this, too, was that—unlike the higher ranks of the officer corps, which was, by and large, monarchist in belief and background—the lower ranking officers and most enlisted men were Nazis to the core. To them, the attempt to kill Hitler on July 20, 1944, was a disgrace to the good name of Germany.Indeed, the Army was intimately involved with the Volkssturm from its very beginning. It was the Army that provided both the Panzerfaust (a shoulder-fired rocket similar to the U.S. "bazooka") and Panzerschreck ("Terror of the Tanks") antitank weapons that stopped many an enemy tank in its tracks. In the end, the Panzerfausts were the only weapons that were available to the VS in abundant supply for combat.Recognizing the VS as a Legitimate Fighting ForceOne fear that all VS men shared was that, without uniforms, they would simply be shot out of hand by the enemy for being partisans or terrorists behind the lines, particularly if they were confused with Dr. Ley's proposed postwar Werewolf organization. They also disliked the Party's brown uniforms, as they feared that Red Army troops would be more likely to kill them and refuse to take them prisoner.Some even served in civilian clothes, overcoats, and hats, with but a Volkssturm armband and a pay book to identify them officially as Volkssturm men. Negotiations were conducted with the Western Allies to recognize the VS as true combatants, and these were successful, but not, significantly, with the Soviets.The VS in CombatIn combat in the East, the VS formations were at the disposal of Guderian (again, ironically), and here they gave a good account of themselves, even halting the Red Army advance at Gumbinnen in East Prussia late in 1944 and elsewhere, but in the West they gave up at places like Remagen when they saw the German Army retreat as well. Here, they served under Field Marshals Gerd von Rundstedt, Walther Model, and Albert Kesselring.VS casualty rates were sometimes as high as 70 to 80 percent, while other units panicked and fled. In the East, some 650,000 VS men saw action, but when Nazi Party officials fled at the approach of the Red Army, so did the VS. When the Army left the VS as rearguard units, not too surprisingly, they returned to their homes rather than die in this manner.In the West, some 150,000 VS men served and had helped to man the West Wall fortifications, as well as hold the Upper Rhine, but in the end, the VS had not achieved Himmler's or Bormann's goal. It is estimated that a million VS "troops" were taken prisoner by war's end, and thousands more were killed and wounded.True, the Volkssturm was a legal militia, not partisan guerrillas, but the Nazis were simply wrong about both their People's Militia's motivation and desire to fight to the bitter end, and also their enemies' sense of moral outrage against Nazism and determination to totally defeat the Third Reich—no matter how long it took or at what cost.This article by Blaine Taylor originally appeared on Warfare History Network. Image: ReutersRecommended: Why North Korea's Air Force is Total Junk Why Doesn't America Kill Kim Jong Un?
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| Israel PM vows to annex West Bank settlements Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:19 AM PDT ![Israel PM vows to annex West Bank settlements]( "Israel PM vows to annex West Bank settlements") Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reaffirming his pledge to impose Israeli sovereignty on West Bank settlements. Such a move would be a sharp departure from long-standing Israeli government policy. Netanyahu made a similar pledge to begin annexing part of the Israeli-occupied West Bank on the eve of April elections this year but did not act on it.
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| Forget Russia: America Nearly Built Its Own 'Skyfall' Nuclear Powered Cruise Missile Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:00 AM PDT  After days of speculation by Western analysts that a deadly accident on August 8 that briefly spiked radiation levels in northwestern Russia was tied to tests of an exotic nuclear-powered "Skyfall" nuclear-powered cruise missile, Russian sources confirmed to the New York Times the explosion of a "small nuclear reactor."While there's a tactical rationale behind Russia's development of a fast, surface-skimming cruise missile with an unlimited range as a means of bypassing American missile defenses, it strikes many analysts as an inordinately expensive, extremely technically challenging, and—evidently!—downright unsafe.That's because the United States has tried it before sixty years earlier—and even with the fast-and-loose safety culture of the Cold War 1960s, the poison-spewing radioactive mega missile it began developing was considered too dangerous to even properly flight test.This project was most famously described in a 1990 article by Gregg Herken for Air & Space Magazine, which remains well worth the read.In the late 1950s, the United States had yet to deploy the intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles that remain two of three pillars of Washington's nuclear deterrence today. That meant the drawing board was open for alternative methods to threaten Washington's adversaries with atomic devastation.One concept was to use a nuclear ramjet propulsion system to create a rocket that could fly for months thanks to a small nuclear reactor on board. The ramjet functioned by sucking in onrushing air while traveling several times the speed of sound, and warming it with its small reactor. The heated air would expand and get squeezed out exhaust nozzles to result in high-speed propulsion.The resulting Supersonic Low-Altitude Missile (SLAM) was powered by a small reactor codenamed "Pluto," to be developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Berkeley, California.While proto-hippies gathered at the nearby university campus, the scientists at the laboratory, under project director Theodore Merkle, were devising a huge missile designed that would make any caught underneath it "deafened, flattened, and irradiated," as Herken memorably put it in his article.The SLAM missile was expected to soar towards its Soviet targets at tree-top level, traveling at three times the speed of sound. The combination of low-altitude (reducing detection range) and Mach 3 speed was thought to make it too fast for interception by fighters or surface-to-air missile. The sonic shock wave produced by the huge missile was believed to be strong enough to kill anyone caught underneath it.The huge missile, laden with up to twelve thermonuclear bombs, would proceed to race towards one Soviet city after another, visiting Hiroshima-level human tragedies upon each. And once the bombs were exhausted, the nuclear-powered missile would…simply keep on going and going like a murderous Energizer Bunny.Because installing adequate radioactive shielding on such a small reactor would have proven impossible, the SLAM would have spread in its wake trails of cancer-inducing gamma and neutron radiation and radioactive fission fragments expelled by its exhaust.Project Pluto scientists even considered weaponizing this property by programming the missile to circle overhead Soviet population centers, though how exposing even more people to slow deaths by radiation poisoning would be useful in an apocalyptic nuclear war that would likely leave both nations in ruin in a few days is hard to fathom.However, realizing the SLAM concept involved a succession of serious technical challenges. For example, a separate conventional rocket system would be necessary for the missile to reach the supersonic speeds at which its ramjet motor could function. That, in turn, meant the reactor had to be designed to withstand the heat and stress of those powerful booster rockets. In fact, it's believed precisely that problem may have resulted in the deadly accident in Russia this August.As a result, the Livermore laboratory devised a 500-megawatt reactor so robust it was nicknamed the "flying crowbar."Thus, the missile's structure would need to withstand the intense heat generated by the reactor, estimated to operate at 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit. Thus, the lab commissioned the Coors Ceramic company in Colorado—yes, the same as the beer-brewers of today—to build heat-resistant ceramic fuel elements.To test whether the various components Project Pluto could coexist non-explosively, an expensive, eight-square-mile test facility was established codenamed Site 401 at the Jackass flats of Nevada.A nuclear ramjet named Tory-IIA was tested successfully for a few seconds on May 14, 1961, at low power. After three more years of development, a lighter Tory-IIC ramjet was then tested in 1964, operating at near to full power for five minutes. Over 300 tons of pressurized air were channeled to simulate high-speed flight conditions necessary for the ramjet to operate.Having established the workability of the nuclear ramjet, Merkle's team then ran into a serious practical obstacle: where on Earth, literally, could a long-range weapon prone to trailing plumes of radioactive pollution behind it be tested? And what would happen if the supersonic weapon with theoretically nigh-unlimited range "got away"—ie., fell out of control, and potentially irradiated American communities? Some scientists even suggested tying the missile to the ground to deal with the latter problem.Deploying the weapon operationally presented even worse dilemmas, as the missile would likely overfly U.S. allies on its approach to Russia. Even deploying an operational weapon to a remote Pacific island seemed to entail an inordinate amount of radiation poisoning for the surrounding environment.By then, the United States was well into deploying ICBMs and SLBM missiles, which presented none of these problems and were at the time virtually unstoppable once launched. By contrast, advances in radar and missile technology seemed bound to make the SLAM less invulnerable than had been previously supposed. Finally, in July 1964, the military pulled the plug on the $260 million program—equivalent to over $2 billion in 2019 dollars.Fortunately, the Pentagon was able to assess that the SLAM did nothing to alter the Mutually Assured Destruction dynamic of Moscow and Washington's Cold War standoff, except perhaps by provoking an equally terrifying response. Furthermore, it presented undesirable budgetary burdens and intolerable safety and political risks.Despite technical advances since the 1960s, those same fundamental considerations likely remain true for Russia's Skyfall missile today.As John Krzyzaniak succinctly put it in a piece for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:"The problems with a nuclear-powered missile are so numerous and obvious that some have questioned whether Putin is being hoodwinked by his scientists, or whether he is bluffing to scare the United States back into arms control agreements. In any case, what was once a terrible new idea is now just a terrible old idea."Unfortunately, in a climate of escalating paranoia and nuclear arms competition, Moscow is not merely devising exotic new nuclear weapons, but resurrecting the demons of our shared Cold War past.Sébastien Roblin holds a master's degree in conflict resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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| How Trump’s trade wars are fueling the Amazon fires Posted: 31 Aug 2019 11:00 PM PDT  Brazil is now the top exporter of soybeans to China – and that is leading to the rainforest being burned down at an extraordinary rate 'The number of fires increased more than 80% this year as the US trade war with China peaked.' Photograph: Paulo Whitaker/ReutersThe so-called "lungs of the world" are belching smoke as farmers set out after 10 August in a "day of fires" to clear forest for grazing cattle and planting soybeans. The result was more than 10,000 new fires spreading in the Brazilian rainforest, kindled by drought that drives wildfires raging from Russia to Africa.Brazilian deforestation is no act of non-government organizations, as the president, Jair Bolsonaro – who called himself "Captain Chainsaw" – absurdly claimed. He ran for president last year exhorting homesteaders to stake their claim by cutting or burning. They scoff at scientists and outsiders alarmed that the planet could cook that much faster if the rain forest is torched, and have openly stated their goals shielded in sovereignty.The number of fires increased more than 80% this year as the US trade war with China peaked. The Day of Fires was called just as China declared it would no longer buy US agricultural products. The biggest import from China was soybeans, accounting for over half Iowa's annual crop.This is part of a long-term development that has seen China invest in production capacity in Central and South America to shift its soy dependence away from the US.Brazil is now the top exporter of soybeans to China. It is also building its beef export business in Asia as an African virus cut the Chinese hog herd in half, which will take years to rebuild.As Brazilian savannas that grazed livestock give way to soybean cultivation, cattle move into the rain forest along with row-crop production.As if the world were not already awash in soybeans, and corn. Upper midwest farmers have watched their soy prices drop by a third as Donald Trump and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, ratchet up their rhetoric and tariffs.Iowa soybean growers carefully cultivated China for decades to open up new export markets. Since the days that Nixon's agriculture secretary, Earl Butz, commanded farmers to plant fencerow to fencerow to feed the world, China became Iowa's top soy customer. When the state's governor, Terry Branstad, was appointed ambassador, Iowa farmers thought the key to the door of the Forbidden City had been given to them. Then Trump, who said he loves farmers, started the trade wars with China, Mexico and Canada."You will never see the Chinese market the way you had it," former Mexican ambassador to China Jorge Guajardo told me. "They will never make the mistake of depending on the United States again."He adds that Mexican buyers also are leery of counting on US agriculture suppliers. They have a free trade agreement with Brazil. They do not have one with the US.Arrangements have been made. The supply chain has been twisted another direction. Now, Brazilians are using that language of feeding the world, and planting every last acre by expropriating rain forest from indigenous people if Chinese demand dictates it. And it does.The soybeans sit in the bin in Iowa and Illinois awaiting a better day, as a harvest fast approaches, while the rain forest burns. In the rolling hills of southern Iowa painted in green pasture you can't scare up a cattle buyer anymore. The beef slaughter plants in Fort Dodge and Denison are closed now, as the action moves to South America's new frontier. We are growing so much soy and corn that the Gulf of Mexico is choking from excess fertilizer streaming down the Mississippi River. What we can't feed to hogs and poultry we burn for ethanol, competing with the Brazilian cane growers who create environmental disasters all their own. Because of the trade wars, Trump has doled out $30bn over two years in disaster payments to make up for depressed soybean markets. We can't seem to give it away. It has many Iowa farmers talking with presidential candidates about doing things differently – like growing less corn and beans, and instead fighting the climate crisisby planting crops that capture carbon while restoring soil.Yet the forest burns, and its carbon-capturing capacity goes up in smoke. All for some cheaper soybeans and hamburger. Trade wars may end, but supply chains are hard to bend back. * Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times in north-west Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing. He is author of the book Storm Lake: A Chronicle of Change, Resilience and Hope from a Heartland Newspaper (Viking, 2018)
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| Winston Churchill Was Almost Sent Packing Forever After This Military Defeat Posted: 31 Aug 2019 11:00 PM PDT  The fighting at Anafarta was the high point of the almost nine-month campaign, although the Allies continued half-hearted attacks throughout September and October. In the English-speaking world, most students of military history would be hard-pressed to identify the time, place, or antagonists of the Canakkale Campaign. However, they would readily recognize it by its English name—Gallipoli. The Allied troops who went ashore at Gallipoli believed they were fighting for democracy. Few Westerners realized (or at any rate admitted) that their Turkish opponents were fighting for an even higher ideal—they were defending their country. A significant portion of the Turkish soldiers who fought in the Canakkale Campaign were recruited from the towns and villages of the Gallipoli Peninsula. With their families close behind the battle lines, these soldiers were literally fighting for their homes. To them, the Allied soldiers were invaders who had come to defile their country and their Muslim faith.Deutschland uber Allah: the Ottomans Enter the War:In 1915, World War I was in its second year. On the Western Front, the inexorable meat grinder of trench warfare had replaced the early war of maneuver. Stalemated British, French, and German armies stared at each other across the scarred Belgian and French countryside. Meanwhile, on the Eastern Front, where operations of Austro-German and Russian armies still maintained some measure of fluidity, things were beginning to bog down there as well. The eyes of both sides turned south, toward the Ottoman Empire. With the Turks firmly in command of both the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits, a vital supply route between Russia and Western Europe had been cut. Russia needed weapons and munitions from England and France. In turn, those two countries needed Russian food shipments. To England and France, Turkey seemed like the soft underbelly through which a serious blow could be delivered at Germany. The Germans, for their part, were looking for a place to divert British and French efforts and relieve some of the pressure on the Fatherland.Recommended: Why an F-22 Raptor Would Crush an F-35 in a 'Dogfight'Recommended: Air War: Stealth F-22 Raptor vs. F-14 Tomcat (That Iran Still Flies)Recommended: A New Report Reveals Why There Won't Be Any 'New' F-22 RaptorsFor more than a decade, the German and Ottoman empires had maintained close ties, especially in the military sphere. Shortly before the start of the war, a German military mission of almost 100 officers arrived in Turkey, invited there to overhaul the creaking Ottoman war machine. One of the most senior members of this mission was General Otto Liman von Sanders, who was destined to play a key role in the Gallipoli campaign. When the war started, Turkey initially maintained its neutrality. Then, in an act of either calculated effrontery or callous arrogance, England withheld two battleships it had been building for Turkey. The Turks' indignation was understandable, since they had already paid for the battleships. Not only was England keeping the vessels, it also refused to return its client's money.German warships soon entered the picture. On August 10, 1914, hotly pursued by combined British and French squadrons, two German vessels, Goeben and Breslau, took refuge in Turkish territorial waters. In a sham sale, Turkey acquired the ships from Germany. Re-flagged under Ottoman colors and bearing the new names Midilli and Yavuz, the two ships were still manned by their German crews, who went through the ridiculous charade of wearing fezzes and pretending to be Turks. A rueful pun made the rounds: "Deutschland uber Allah."Turkey decided to enter the conflict on the German side. On October 27, the two newly acquired warships sailed into the Black Sea, bombarded several Russian cities on the north shore of the sea, and sank two merchant vessels. Although damage was minimal, Russia immediately declared war on Turkey. Great Britain and France quickly followed suit, and on November 3 combined British and French squadrons bombarded Turkish military installations near the entrance to the Dardanelles Straits, heavily damaging two small forts. Turkey, in turn, formally declared war on England and France. Another country had been drawn into the European bloodbath.Dardanelles Strait: Istambul's Gate:The Ottoman Empire was separated into the European portion and the Asian portion by the narrow Sea of Marmara. The Dardanelles Straits formed the gates to that British lake, the Mediterranean Sea, while the Bosporus Straits guarded the entrance to the Black Sea, dominated by Russia. The Gallipoli Peninsula (anglicized name of the small town of Gelibolu on the European side of the Dardanelles) gave its name to the upcoming campaign in the English-speaking world. The Turks named the campaign after the town of Canakkale, on the Asian side of the straits.Hoping for a quick knockout blow, the British government planned to force the Dardanelles Straits, enter the Sea of Marmara and bombard the Turkish capital of Istanbul into submission. Original Allied plans drawn up by Winston Churchill, the British First Lord of the Admiralty, called for naval actions alone. However, six months of naval bombardments and raids by marine landing parties did not have much success. The British and French squadrons operated on predictable sailing patterns, and the Turks laid a series of mine fields across their routes. On March 18, Allied naval squadrons received a terrible mauling at the hands of the Turks, resulting in three Allied battleships sunk and three more crippled. The British abruptly changed tactics and placed the Army in charge of forcing the Dardanelles Straits. British General Sir Ian Hamilton was appointed to command the Mediterranean Expeditionary Forces, which included Australian and New Zealand (ANZAC) contingents as well as English.Liman von Sanders Takes Command;On March 24, the Turkish premier, Enver Pasha, offered Liman von Sanders command of the Fifth Army, which was being organized to defend the Dardanelles. A typical product of Prussian military upbringing—professional, aloof, and nonpolitical—Liman von Sanders readily accepted the offer and wasted no time departing for his new command. On March 26, he set up headquarters in the small port town of Gallipoli. Efforts to improve defenses at the strategic straits began at once. At the time, the Fifth Army was composed of five divisions deployed along both the European and the Asiatic coasts of the straits. Each division was made up of nine to 12 battalions, each numbering between 800 and 1,000 men. By the time of the Allied landings, another division, the 3rd, had arrived.The Asian side of the straits, characterized by low hills and large tracts of flatlands, was more susceptible to Allied landings. The coast of the Gallipoli Peninsula on the European side consisted of very mountainous terrain with steep slopes and deep ravines. Immediately behind the beaches, the landscape was dotted with small woods and thickets. Farther inland, the peninsula became flatter and more open for maneuver. Liman von Sanders considered the Asian shore the place most likely to see an Allied landing. It was, however, the most heavily defended sector of the Turkish defenses. The Gallipoli Peninsula, on the other hand, offered only a handful of likely places to land enemy troops. One of them was the southern tip of the peninsula at Sedd-el-Bahr, completely covered by the guns of British warships. After landing there, the next immediate Allied objective inland would be the Achi Baba ridge. From this ridge, the British would be able to put a large part of the Turkish defensive works under fire.Another likely landing place was on the north side of the Gulf of Saros, at Bulair. From this place to Maidos, the Gallipoli Peninsula is only approximately four miles wide. If the enemy could cut the peninsula along the line from the Gulf of Saros to Maidos, a considerable part of the Ottoman Fifth Army would be cut off and surrounded. In his memoirs, British Seaman Joseph Murray wrote, "No doubt the Turks were wondering exactly where and when we would strike; as invaders it was for us to choose the time and place. The Turks had to remain where they were, ready to defend their homeland."Reorganizing the Turkish Fifth Army:Before Liman von Sanders took command of the Fifth Army, the Turkish troops were distributed evenly along the entire perimeter of the Gallipoli Peninsula, without any reserves allocated to halt the enemy in case they breached the shore defenses. Liman von Sanders completely reorganized Turkish deployment. He pulled back the bulk of his troops, leaving company- and platoon-sized detachments to watch the possible landing sites. Since he considered the Gulf of Saros the most likely landing location on the peninsula, Liman von Sanders repositioned the 5th and 7th Divisions close to it. The 9th Division was centered on the southern tip of the peninsula and the 19th Division was placed in strategic reserve in the center. The 3rd and 11th Divisions were allocated to defend the Asiatic side of the straights. By using internal lines of communication, Liman von Sanders would be able to rush reserves to the threatened sectors.To conceal Turkish redeployments, most movements were done during the night. Work on improving the roads began at once to prepare them for the higher traffic of supplies and reinforcements. To toughen up his troops, grown complacent in their previous static defensive positions, Liman von Sanders ordered them to conduct training marches and maneuvers. This training also had to be conducted at night to shield them from British warships, which would immediately rain shells on any group of Turks, however small.The Amphibious Assault Begins:In the early morning of April 25, Liman von Sanders began receiving reports that hostile landings were taking place. The 3rd and 11th Divisions defending the Asiatic side reported heavy fighting with the French troops landing around the Besika Bay. At the same time, British warships lying off Sedd-el-Bahr (called Cape Helles by the British) were laying down a heavy barrage covering the landing of British troops under fire from the Turkish 9th Division. More naval gunfire soon announced further enemy landings.Quickly dispatching the bulk of the 7th Division to the Bulair Ridge, Liman von Sanders hurried ahead of them, accompanied by his German adjutants. From the bare Bulair Ridge, they had a full view of the Gulf of Saros. While the British were heavily bombarding the area, they were not landing any troops there yet. Reports began filtering in. At the southern tip of the peninsula, the British were taking tremendous casualties but bringing in more and more troops. The Allies were not having any success against the 9th Division at Gaba Tepe. However, the British occupied the heights at Ari Burnu, to which the bulk of the reserve 19th Division under Lt. Col. Mustafa Kemal was hurrying.Liman von Sanders estimated that his 60,000 troops were facing upward of 90,000 Allies, supported by an incredible array of warships. The Turkish high command was amazed to count almost 200 Allied warships and transports facing them. By mid-afternoon, Liman von Sanders received news that the French landing at Besika Bay has been repulsed, and that it seemed to have been a diversion. The enemy actions at the Gulf of Saros appeared to be a mere demonstration as well. The Turkish defenders put up a very spirited fight against the invading Allies. In many places, the British troops hitting the beaches were mowed down under an unrelenting hail of Turkish bullets. Many small groups of Allied soldiers managed to penetrate the shore defenses and move inland, melting away along the mazes of ravines, gullies, and thickets.The fight was far from being one-sided, however. The full weight of British naval guns was brought to bear on Turkish positions. Rear Admiral R.J.B. Keyes recalled, "The enemy's position was obliterated in sheets of flame and clouds of yellow smoke and dust from our high explosive. It seemed incredible that anyone could be left alive in the enemy's position, but when the fire was lifted that ghastly tat-tat-tat of machine-gun fire broke out again, and took toll of anyone who moved." A less exalted viewer was British midshipman H.M. Denham, who noted, "We opened fire on the Turks with twelve-pounders. I could see a dozen of them rush out of their trench, run fifty yards, lie flat with our men's rifle bullet splashes all around them. When we directed our fire at them I saw a lot of heads, legs and arms go up in the air; however, they fought very bravely."The Allied Foothold:The Allies had gained a foothold at the southern point of the Gallipoli Peninsula and were constantly bringing in reinforcements. The whole of the Turkish 9th Division under Colonel Sami Bei had been committed to the fight and still more troops were needed. Liman von Sanders ordered two battalions from the 7th Division to be moved there by boat from Maidos. He also sent three battalions from the 5th Division, in readiness at the Gulf of Saros, to Maidos to follow those of the 7th Division. The 19th Division, although holding its own at Gaba Tepe and Ari Burnu, was heavily engaged against Australian and New Zealand forces.Even though he suspected that the Allied movements at the Gulf of Saros were a feint, Liman von Sanders remained on the Bulair heights throughout the night. On the morning of April 26, he ordered units from the 5th and 7th Divisions, along with most of the field artillery of the two divisions, to Maidos for transportation to the southern tip of the peninsula. Meanwhile, he left his chief of staff, Lt. Col. Kazim Bei, in charge of the remaining troops at the Gulf of Saros. Bei had orders to send his remaining troops to Maidos if no enemy landing manifested itself the following day.Mustafa Kemal, leading his 19th Division, was one of those rare men whom providence places at exactly the right place at exactly the right time. On the morning of the Allied landings, Kemal's division was held in reserve approximately five miles away from the shores. Its sister division, the 9th, bore the brunt of Allied assault, and its commander urgently requested reinforcements. Kemal personally took charge of one of his regiments, a company of cavalry and an artillery battery, and hurried forward. As he later described in his memoirs, Kemal stopped on a crest of a hill to wait for his troops to catch up. While he sat resting his horse, he spotted a group of retreating Turkish soldiers from the 9th Division. They informed him that they were out of ammunition and were being closely followed by the British. Kemal quickly saw a skirmish line of British soldiers climbing up the hill. He ordered the few 9th Division soldiers to fix bayonets and lie down. He later wrote, "As they did so, the enemy too lay down. We had won time."The Turkish Counterattack;In the late morning, as more and more units from his 19th Division began arriving opposite the landing sites, Kemal organized a counterattack against the ANZAC positions. Leading toward the 57th Infantry Regiment, the 36-year-old officer addressed his men. "I don't order you to attack," he said. "I order you to die. By the time we are dead, other units and commanders will have come up to take our place." While containing more that a little dramatic flair, Kemal's orders reflected his correct estimation of the situation: hold at all costs.During April 25 and the next few days, the 57th Regiment lived up to its commander's expectation—casualties were so heavy that the regiment practically ceased to exist. To recognize the sacrifice of men of the 57th Infantry Regiment, the Turkish government did not reconstitute the unit, retiring its number with honors. Throughout the day, Kemal continued feeding reinforcements into the maelstrom. The Australians and New Zealanders tenaciously clung to their slivers of shoreline, soaking up casualties themselves and dealing out even greater casualties to the counterattacking Turks. One of the Turkish regiments advancing on the left flank, the 77th, composed mainly of unsteady Arab recruits, broke and ran after suffering severe loses. Kemal quickly shifted a battalion from the right to plug the gap. By the time night mercifully fell, the bloodied beachheads, gullies, hilltops, and slopes were littered with the carnage of war. Corpses of fallen Turks, Australians, New Zealanders, British, and Arabs presented a nightmarish landscape. The moaning of wounded made it seem as if the hills themselves were crying out in anguish.While Kemal's division suffered terrible losses, he scored a moral victory over the Allies. The casualties among the Australian and New Zealand soldiers were also so great that their brigade and divisional commanders convinced Maj. Gen. William Birdwood, commander of the Anzac contingent, to request that they be evacuated. The expedition's commander, British General Sir Ian Hamilton, denied the request, instead advising, "You have got through the difficult business, now you have only to dig, dig, dig, until you are safe." As ANZAC shovels bit into the rocky soil, the Allies lost the initiative.Containing the Beachhead:All through the fighting on April 25, Kemal managed to contain the Allied advance. For his role in events, he would be awarded the Turkish Order of Distinguished Service. Later, Kaiser Wilhelm II would award Kemal Germany's Iron Cross. Extremely outspoken and nationalistic, Kemal soon came to disagree with the overall commander at Gallipoli, Liman von Sanders, who preferred to have German officers in key positions. Kemal's attitude and language in addressing his Turkish and German superiors were not always the most politic. Despite multiple ruffled feathers, his personal courage and abilities were never in doubt, and on May 1 he was promoted to the rank of full colonel.Heavy fighting continued for the next two days. The Allies, intent on breaking through to the hinterland of the peninsula, threw more and more men into the fighting. For their part, the Turks were just as determined to push the invaders back into the sea. As the result, neither side gained their objectives. By the beginning of May, stationary warfare, reminiscent of Western Europe, had developed on the peninsula. Despite large quantities of blood shed on both sides, progress was measured in feet. Two distinct fronts soon took shape: at Sedd-el-Bahr (Cape Helles) and Ari Burnu (Anzac Cove).To minimize the effectiveness of British naval gunfire, Liman von Sanders ordered his troops in the first line to dig their trenches as close to the British as possible. With the opposing trench lines within a grenade's throw from each other, British naval gunfire could just as easily hit a friend as a foe. However, the British ships still could rain heavy fire onto Turkish second and subsequent lines of defense. Turkish villages and small towns on the Gallipoli Peninsula were turned to rubble by British naval gunfire. The once-beautiful port town of Maidos was left in ruins. The town of Gallipoli was severely damaged. Krithia, located just one mile north of the battle lines at Sedd-el-Bahr, was reduced to a heap of rubble. Allied warships, cruising the waters of the Aegean Sea with impunity, were able to bring a punishing flanking fire across almost the entire peninsula. Especially hard hit were the Turkish flanks, resting on the Aegean Sea in the west and the Dardanelles in the east.The Defenders Resupply:The resupply situation of the Turkish Fifth Army was extremely difficult. The railhead nearest to the front lines was at a small town of Uzun-Kupru in Thrace (modern-day Bulgaria). Since the Turkish Army had no trucks, all supplies had to be moved by horse- and ox-drawn wagons, a journey of several days. The overwhelming majority of supplies coming to Gallipoli arrived by boat from the Asiatic mainland across the Sea of Marmara. As British and Australian submarines tried unsuccessfully to close the supply line, the Turkish Army continued the struggle. At the beginning of the campaign, even entrenching tools were hard to come by. During their attacks on the British trenches, Turkish infantrymen often carried away any digging implements they could capture and scavenged wood, bricks, and other materials from destroyed villages. Even sand bags were in short supply. When several thousand of them did arrive, large numbers of the precious items were used to patch up the ragged uniforms of the Turkish soldiers.Four more Turkish divisions—the 4th, 13th, 15th, and 16th—arrived to reinforce Liman von Sanders's depleted command. These divisions brought several batteries of much-needed heavy artillery. Even though consisting mostly of older models, the guns proved invaluable in counteracting British artillery, which was being landed on the peninsula in increasing numbers. The Turkish Navy, particularly its two German-crewed ships, contributed two machine-gun detachments of 12 weapons each to the Gallipoli defenses.During the night of May 18, the newly arrived Turkish 2nd Division attacked the Allies at Ari Burnu. It succeeded in breaking through the first British trench line and reaching the second. However, the British immediately counterattacked and pushed the exhausted 2nd Division back to its starting position. Casualties on both sides were heavy, with the 2nd Division losing 9,000 men killed and wounded. In his memoirs, Liman von Sanders took the blame for the attack's failures, citing insufficient artillery preparation and quantity of ammunition. British losses were significant as well, and British command requested a cease-fire to collect and bury their dead. Liman von Sanders agreed to halt the hostilities for one day on May 23.At the end of June, a provisional German company of 200 commissioned and noncommissioned officers joined the Fifth Army. However, the unfamiliar climate and Allied fire quickly reduced its numbers. Distributed in small groups along the whole front, the Germans nevertheless proved invaluable in supervising Turkish engineering and construction efforts. A significant weakness in Turkish positions was the gap between the Ari Burnu and Sedd-el-Bahr fronts. While the Turkish flanks at Sedd-el-Bahr were anchored on the water, the flanks at Ari Burnu were hanging in the air. Advancing through the Anafarta Valley, the Allies could threaten both Turkish fronts and cause them to give up their positions.The Allies Reinforce:At the beginning of August, five fresh British and ANZAC divisions were landed at Ari Burnu and Suvla Bay. In the evening of August 6, Liman von Sanders received alarming reports that a strong Allied force was moving north along the coast from Ari Burnu, aiming at the Anafarta Valley. Immediately, he moved troops from the Turkish 9th, 7th, and 12th Divisions to parry the new threat. As the forward elements of the 9th Division reached the Koja Chemen Mountain, they discovered that the British infantry was advancing up the opposite slope of the same mountain. In a brief and decisive counterattack, the Turks completely drove the British off the mountain. Leading from the front, German Colonel Hans Kannengiesser, commander of the 9th Division, was killed by a bullet through the chest.Heavy fighting for the hills around the Anafarta Valley continued through August 7, as the outnumbered Turkish soldiers from the 9th Division hung on waiting for reinforcements. After a grueling forced march, the 7th and 12th Divisions reached the threatened area the next day. Liman von Sanders appointed Kemal the overall commander of all Turkish forces on the Anafarta Front. His six divisions, centered on the two villages, Great and Little Anafarta, became known as the Anafartalar Group ("Anafartalar" in Turkish is plural for Anafarta). Throughout August 9, Kemal launched attack after attack at the British lines. In extremely bloody fighting, the Allies were pushed back to the coast in several places. Not lacking in bravery, the British and ANZAC troops tenaciously hung on to several key pieces of hilly terrain. On the evening of August 10, Kemal personally led another attack. After a difficult contest, the British were driven off all the dominating terrain at the head of the Anafarta Valley.During the attack on August 10, Kemal was hit in the chest by a spent piece of shrapnel. Fortunately for him, the shrapnel struck his pocket watch, leaving him unscathed. He later presented this watch to Liman von Sanders, who in turn gave Kemal his own watch, bearing his family's coat of arms. On August 15, the Allies launched their own strong attack from Suvla Bay northeast toward the Kiretch Tepe Ridge. Their initial attack was a success, driving the Turks off a large portion of the ridge. A Turkish battalion composed largely of policemen from the Gallipoli Peninsula bore the brunt of the attack. It was almost completely annihilated, and its commander, Captain Kadri Bei, was killed.A Grinding Stalemate:Throughout August 16, the British continued heavy pressure on the beleaguered Turks. Turkish reinforcements were rushed forward and had to attack in daylight, in full view of supporting British warships. Turkish casualties from flanking naval gunfire were frightening, but the Allied ground advance was held up at all points. On August 21, the British launched another all-out attack against the Anafarta Valley. The fighting was as futile as it was bloody. The Allies made no progress, losing 15,000 men killed and 45,000 wounded. Turkish losses were equally frightening, forcing them to commit the last reserves, including the dismounted cavalry.Had the British been able to break through the Kiretch Tepe Ridge onto the wide Anafarta plain, the Turkish Fifth Army would have been outflanked and forced to stand and die or else fall back, ceding the Gallipoli Peninsula to the British. As it was, due to the incredible tenacity of the Mehmetciks (Turkish equivalent of American doughboys), the British merely extended the front lines at Ari Burnu. Liman von Sanders attributed their failure to the timidity of British commanders in waiting too long at the coast before pushing inland. The British, for their part, underestimated how quickly the Turks could rush reinforcements to the threatened sectors.On September 20, Kemal fell ill with malaria. Upset over real or imagined slights, he offered his resignation on September 27. While Liman von Sanders attempted to smooth over matters, Kemal remained unpersuaded. His relations with the German commander continued to deteriorate. On December 5, Liman von Sanders granted Kemal unconditional medical leave.The Allied Withdrawal:The fighting at Anafarta was the high point of the almost nine-month campaign, although the Allies continued half-hearted attacks throughout September and October. At the end of October, the Allied command began planning the evacuation of their troops from Gallipoli. An Austrian mortar battery arrived in mid-November, followed by an Austrian howitzer battery in December. The Austrian gunners, well-trained and -equipped, contributed significantly to the Turkish defenses in the later stage of the campaign. Along with approximately 500 Germans, the Austrian artillerymen were the only non-Turkish troops fighting the Allies at Gallipoli.Toward the end of November, the Turkish forces gathered for a decisive counteroffensive on the Allied positions. Their objective was to pierce the junction between the Ari Burnu and Anafarta fronts. Mock defensive positions were constructed behind the front and Turkish divisions assigned to participate in the attack were rotated back to practice offensive operations. However, before the offensive was launched, the Allies evacuated the Ari Burnu and Anafarta fronts. The Allied command planned and executed the withdrawal so skillfully that the Turks never realized what was about to happen. During the night of December 19, under covering fire from British warships, Allied land forces slipped away from the blood-soaked beaches. Liman von Sanders praised the Allied efforts: "The withdrawal had been prepared with extraordinary care and carried out with great skill."While the Allies evacuated their men from Ari Burnu with hardly a loss, they had to leave behind a trove of supplies and war materiél: ammunition, tents, spare parts for cannons and machine guns, canned food, hand grenades, even a few small steamers and more than 60 rowboats. Supply-starved Turkish forces distributed the booty among all theaters of operation. Now Liman von Sanders was able to concentrate all of his forces against the only remaining Allied beachhead at Sedd-el-Bahr. The Turks kept up a steady pressure on the British lines, watchful for any further sign of withdrawal. When an Allied pullback was detected during the night of January 8, the Turks launched a determined effort to trap as many British troops as possible on the beaches. The British rear guard put up a spirited fight, aided by booby traps, land mines, and naval gunfire. In spite of losing many men, the Allies once again achieved an orderly withdrawal and evacuated Sedd-el-Bahr.By the morning of January 9, jubilant Turkish forces held the whole peninsula. An even greater amount of war booty had been abandoned on the southern tip of the peninsula. Ragged Turkish soldiers gleefully fell upon the riches the British left behind. Liman von Sanders recalled, "What the ragged and insufficiently nourished Turkish soldiers took away cannot be estimated. I tried to stop plundering by a dense line of sentinels, but the endeavor was in vain. During the ensuing time we saw the Turkish soldiers on the peninsula in the most incredible garments which they had made up from every kind of uniform. They even carried British gas masks for fun."Counting Losses:During the height of the Dardanelles campaign, Liman von Sanders commanded 22 infantry divisions in the Fifth Army. Turkish losses amounted to 66,000 men killed and 152,000 wounded. Of those wounded, 42,000 soldiers were later returned to duty. Allied casualties reached upward of 200,000 men killed, wounded, or missing in action. The men evacuated from the Gallipoli beaches later were shipped to France, smack into the bloodbath of the Western Front trenches.As for Gallipoli, it would be difficult to find another location where so many men from so many nations fought and died in such a small place. Turks, Germans, British, Australians, New Zealanders, French, Indians, Senegalese, Arabs, Austrians, Gurkhas, and others were locked in mortal combat where bravery was never in short supply. Years later, while serving as the president of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal would write: "Those heroes that shed their blood and lost their lives … you are now lying in the soil of a friendly country. Therefore rest in peace. There is no difference between the Johnnies and the Mehmets to us where they lie side by side now here in this county of ours. You, the mothers, who sent their sons from faraway countries, wipe away your tears; your sons are now lying in our bosom and are in peace. After having lost their lives on this land they have become our sons as well."This article by Victor J. Kamenir originally appeared on the Warfare History Network.Image: Wikimedia Commons
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| Call Sign Chaos review: James Mattis pulls a flanking manuever on Trump Posted: 31 Aug 2019 10:00 PM PDT  In a memoir that is part hymn to the constitution, the former secretary of defense offers only veiled criticism of the presidentJames Mattis listens as Donald Trump speaks to the media in the cabinet room in October 2018. Photograph: Leah Millis/ReutersJames Mattis was Donald Trump's defense secretary for less than two years, resigning in December 2018. The general's departure came with headlines but little surprise. His resignation letter omitted any praise for the commander-in-chief. "Because you have the right to have a secretary of defense whose views are better aligned with yours," he wrote, "I believe it is right for me to step down."Mattis had been on thin ice for a long time. At an infamous cabinet meeting in June 2017, Mattis praised the men and women of the military instead of gushing over the president. Just months later, a White House official told me Mattis had shown insufficient loyalty to Trump. But because North Korea was on the front burner – before "Little Rocket Man" had started sending Trump love letters – the president felt he needed generals around him. In the end, everyone in Trump's orbit is expendable. Except Ivanka Trump.Call Sign Chaos, Mattis's memoir, is a readable look at more than four decades as a marine. Co-written with Bing West, a former marine and Reagan Pentagon alumnus, the book spans Mattis's career, from enlistment through retirement.It contains veiled disapproval of Trump and is sharper in expressing disagreements with his Oval Office predecessors.> Call Sign Chaos takes aim at bigotry and lauds the military service of migrants. It gives full-throated support for NatoOfficially, the book's title derives from the call-sign bestowed when Mattis became a regimental commander, Chaos an acronym for "Colonel Has An Outstanding Solution".Mattis comes across as plain-spoken and reflective, a fan of books and history. Abraham Lincoln and Gettysburg receive their due. As a younger man, however, Mattis was not above brawling. In other words, he's interesting.He repeatedly expresses his regard for America's institutions and its constitution even as he offers criticism, one thing which sets him apart from the 45th president."I've developed a love affair with our constitution," Mattis writes.He tells of getting into a fight in Montana with three other men. Then 19, he was rewarded with a brief jail sentence and a sheriff's escort to a westbound freight train. His brush with the law became a formative experience.Mattis recalls that as a marine recruiter he was confronted with a prospect who had been arrested for a "single use of cocaine". Channeling his inner Nick Saban on the value of "second chances", Mattis pushed for a waiver. "There's a huge difference," he writes, "between making a mistake and letting that mistake define you."As Mattis moved up the ranks, interaction with Congress, the White House and civilian Pentagon leadership became a norm, although not necessarily a welcome one. Mattis professes to prefer the field and his troops. DC was not his "cup of tea". Yet he appears to have overcome that hurdle, to a point anyway, when he was appointed executive secretary to Bill Clinton's defense chiefs, William Perry and William Cohen."I gained an abiding respect for those with whom I served and from whom I also learned a new skill set," he writes. "I had a front-row seat to policymaking as it was supposed to work."As for congressional oversight and the power of the purse, Mattis "received a pragmatic introduction to article one of the constitution", a reminder to the reader that it is Congress that is tasked with raising America's armed forces.Mattis saw action in Afghanistan and Iraq. He blames Tommy Franks, head of US Central Command and an army general, for Osama bin Laden's escape from Tora Bora, his refusal to deploy the marines a key cause of that debacle. As Mattis frames things: "We in the military missed the opportunity, not the president, who properly deferred to his senior military commander on how to carry out the mission."But Iraq was a different story, and there Mattis places blame squarely on George W Bush for getting the US into the mess, and on Barack Obama and Joe Biden for the mode of the eventual pullback. As for going to war, Mattis observes: "Invading Iraq stunned me. Why were we fighting them again?"> For Mattis, Iran was an implacable foe. He also believes Tehran came to view the Obama administration as 'impotent'In a chapter titled Incoherence, Mattis acidly mocks and quotes Bush 43's Freedom Agenda. These days, Iraq is ranked "not free" by Freedom House. Irony abounds.He commends Obama for his intelligence and reserve and Biden for his warmth. Yet he tags them over the pullout from Iraq, Obama's imaginary red line in Syria and their stance toward Iran. He does not mask his disapproval.For Mattis, Iran was an implacable foe. He also believes Tehran came to view the Obama administration as "impotent". To the general, proof positive lay in the failure to respond to an Iranian plot to bomb Cafe Milano, a restaurant just miles from the White House, and assassinate the Saudi ambassador.Mattis also takes aim at WikiLeaks, describing it as "new kind of adversary" that "inflicted deep harm" to American interests. Unlike Trump, he never harbored any love for Julian Assange's creation.To Mattis, American uncertainty and messianism can both have steep downsides. As he saw it, an absence of strategy would engender the sense that the US was "proving unreliable.""I was disappointed and frustrated," he writes. "Policymakers all too often failed to deliver clear direction."Yet Mattis does not grapple with domestic political realities. Lives and treasure aside, Iraq cost the Republicans both houses of Congress in 2006 and paved the way for Obama. Furthermore, casualty counts in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were factors in Hillary Clinton's defeat. Not everything is about Russia.When it comes to Trump, Mattis flanks, avoiding a head-on clash. Call Sign Chaos takes aim at bigotry and lauds the military service of migrants. As in his resignation letter, Mattis gives full-throated support for Nato: "Nations with allies thrive, and those without wither."In his epilogue, Mattis notes America's political divide and full-throated tribalism. But he is optimistic. Call Sign Chaos ends thus: "E Pluribus Unum."
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| Scottish Independence Is Back, and So Are the Financial Hurdles Posted: 31 Aug 2019 09:00 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. It's been a good few weeks for Scotland's pro-independence government. An opinion poll showed an increase in support for breaking away from the rest of Britain. Then the U.K. headed for a showdown over Brexit and the popular leader of the biggest opposition party stepped down.While the political and emotional arguments may be stacking up, questions remain over economics and finance. Recent figures suggest the challenges are just as great as they were when Scotland last voted on ending the three-centuries-old union with England and Wales five years ago this month.The Scottish National Party, which runs the semi-autonomous administration in Edinburgh, has been championing the differences between Scotland and the rest of Britain and is demanding another referendum. Should certain political dominoes fall, it might end up getting one.Scotland voted overwhelmingly against leaving the European Union and this year's European parliamentary elections saw anti-Brexit parties prevail, unlike in England. The core economic argument is that full control over taxation, a geographical share of North Sea oil, a long transition to its own currency and continued membership in the EU will foster greater prosperity.The problem is when it comes to breaking away, some of the key numbers still look the same as any other British region if it were untethered from the economic dynamo that is London.Last month's publication of government finances showed that as Europe's newest independent state, Scotland would have a larger budget deficit than any other EU nation. The shortfall would stand at 7% of GDP, albeit down from 8.1% a year earlier.Though it has fallen in recent years, at just under 13 billion pounds ($15.8 billion), Scotland's public deficit is roughly half the size of the U.K.'s as a whole.Such statistics are often used by opponents of independence to show Scotland relies on income from England to fund its public services, but the reality is a little more subtle. The cash transfers Scotland receives are comparable to those that most English regions get from London and the South East. Scotland is about as fiscally independent as Yorkshire.During the 2014 referendum the answer to naysayers was one word: oil. Most of U.K.'s oil reserves lie in Scottish waters and the argument was that the wealth generated by hydrocarbon extraction could cover the fiscal deficit and more.Since then, the price of crude crashed to less than half its 2014 peak and North Sea tax revenue collapsed. While the industry has picked up in the past two years, offshore revenue for the 2016-2017 financial year was 266 million pounds compared with the minimum of 6.8 billion pounds predicted in the pro-independence campaign's "Scotland's Future" blueprint.Part of Scotland's dilemma is that its economy is missing a large productive city like London, Paris or Copenhagen, which can subsidize less productive rural regions. Scotland's population of 5.4 million is less than two thirds of London's.While the historic capital Edinburgh ranks highly for output per resident, it's too small and so doesn't generate enough tax revenue in absolute terms. Glasgow, Scotland's largest city, isn't as productive, statistics show. Politically, they're also different: Glasgow voted for Scottish independence five years ago while Edinburgh opposed it.Usually, the most economically dynamic cities in a country are the largest, owing to the benefits produced by "economies of agglomeration," that is bringing people and businesses closer together to improve efficiency. But, unlike much of Europe, in the U.K. that's not the case. Cities like Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow are less productive."This poses a challenge for the SNP," said Tom Forth, co-founder of The Data City, which compiles statistics to help steer urban policy making. "For as long as the city is a net recipient of public money rather than a net contributor to the Treasury, the fiscal case for Scottish independence will be hard to make."But as the political climate changes in favor of another independence referendum, the good news for Glasgow is that the city is getting better. In terms of gross value added per hour worked, it has made the biggest gains of any U.K. city region in the past 15 years.\--With assistance from Zoe Schneeweiss.To contact the reporter on this story: Eddie Spence in London at espence11@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Rodney Jefferson at r.jefferson@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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