| Pelosi vows to thwart US-UK trade deal if Brexit risks Irish peace Posted: 14 Aug 2019 05:19 PM PDT  The top Democrat in the US Congress warned Wednesday that lawmakers would block a trade pact with Britain if its exit from the EU undermines Northern Ireland's peace accord. President Donald Trump and senior advisors to Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson have spoken of fast-tracking a trade deal once Brexit is complete.
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| Trump, in Praising Xi, Links Hong Kong Protests to Trade War Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:59 PM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump made what seemed to be an overture to the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a series of tweets on Wednesday night that linked the protests in Hong Kong to the continuing trade conflict between the U.S. and China.Trump praised Xi as "a great leader" who wants to "quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem." The president ended that post with "Personal meeting?" without clarifying whether he was suggesting a summit with Xi.In a tweet sent shortly before that, Trump wrote that "of course China wants to make a trade deal. Let them work humanely with Hong Kong first!"He also said that his decision to hold off on imposing new tariffs on China until December "actually helps China more than us, but will be reciprocated. Millions of jobs are being lost in China to other non-Tariffed countries."The White House had no immediate comment on the tweets, which were posted hours after U.S. equities plunged as a Treasury yield curve inverted, heightening fears of a recession. The trade dispute with China has contributed to the rising anxiety, which arrived at a difficult time for Trump, who has based his re-election strategy on a robust economy.Attempting to carry out diplomacy over social media, however, carries risks.Even suggesting a link between the trade dispute and the Hong Kong unrest will feed suspicions in Beijing that the U.S. is seeking to leverage China's domestic crisis as part of broader strategy to check its rise. China has in recent weeks attempted to paint the U.S. as a "black hand" behind the protests, with a front-page commentary in the Communist Party's People Daily newspaper saying Thursday that the goal of such forces was fomenting a "color revolution."Earlier on Wednesday, Trump tried to deflect criticism of his trade agenda by lashing out at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and blamed his policies for the bad news in the markets.He repeated his criticism that the U.S. is being harmed by the Fed not lowering interest rates quickly enough relative to other countries.\--With assistance from Brendan Scott and Jennifer Jacobs.To contact the reporter on this story: John Harney in Washington at jharney2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Kevin Whitelaw at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net, Daniel Ten KateFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Donald Trump backs China's Xi Jinping to resolve Hong Kong crisis 'humanely' Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:38 PM PDT  Donald Trump has backed Xi Jinping to resolve the unrest in Hong Kong "quickly and humanely", floating the possibility of meeting his Chinese counterpart personally to discuss the issue. The US president, who has come under fire at home for his hands-off approach to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, called Mr Xi a "great leader". By nightfall, police and protesters were again facing off on the streets, with riot officers shooting tear gas almost immediately as their response to demonstrators toughens. Ten weeks of increasingly violent confrontation between police and protesters have plunged Hong Kong into its worst crisis since it reverted from British to Chinese rule in 1997. "I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people," the US president tweeted at his golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey. "He is also a good man in a 'tough business.' I have ZERO doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem, he can do it. Personal meeting?" Police fire tear gas to clear pro-Democracy protesters during a demonstration on Hungry Ghost Festival day in the Sham Shui Po district Credit: Getty A US State Department spokeswoman said earlier on Wednesday that the United States was "deeply concerned" about Chinese paramilitary movement along the Hong Kong border. The State Department's expression of concern came after senior US lawmakers from both the Democratic and Republican parties called on Mr Trump to take a tougher line with China as worries grew over a possible Chinese intervention. Mr Trump, who has been seeking a major deal to correct trade imbalances with China, has faced criticism from Congress and elsewhere for not taking a stronger public line on Hong Kong and for his characterisation of the protests earlier this month as "riots" that were a matter for China to deal with. Flights resumed on Wednesday amid heightened security at Hong Kong airport, one of the world's busiest. This followed two days of disruptions sparked by protesters swarming the airport, where, late on Tuesday, they detained two men they suspected opposed them. A protester attempts to kick a tear gas canister during a demonstration on Hungry Ghost Festival day in Sham Shui Po district Credit: Getty China's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office in Beijing called the behaviour at the airport no different to terrorism and said it must be severely punished. Hong Kong protesters yesterday apologised for "over-reacting" during heated clashes at the city's airport where suspected Chinese spies were detained and beaten by some demonstrators. "We're deeply sorry about what happened yesterday," read a banner held up by a group of a few dozen demonstrators in the airport arrivals hall in the morning. "We were desperate and we made imperfect decisions. Please accept our apologies," the banner said. China on Wednesday denied requests for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong, the Pacific Fleet said on Tuesday. The USS Green Bay, an amphibious dock landing ship, was to stop in Hong Kong on Saturday, while the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie planned a port call there next month. Early this month, Beijing demanded that US diplomats based in Hong Kong "stop interfering" in the city's affairs, after reports that they met with pro-democracy activists.
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| U.K.’s Corbyn Plans Caretaker Government to Block No-Deal Brexit Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:01 PM PDT ![U.K.'s Corbyn Plans Caretaker Government to Block No-Deal Brexit]( "U.K.'s Corbyn Plans Caretaker Government to Block No-Deal Brexit") (Bloomberg) -- Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the U.K.'s opposition Labour Party, asked rival parties to support him as prime minister in a coalition to block Boris Johnson's government from pursuing a no-deal Brexit.Corbyn wrote to other political parties' leaders and rebels in the Conservative Party Wednesday, seeking support in a vote of no confidence in the government. He said that if that was successful, they should make him caretaker prime minister so he could delay Brexit and call a general election. Corbyn's overture was welcomed by the Scottish National Party, but rejected by the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru.Johnson has said he's committed to delivering Brexit "do or die" on Oct. 31, without an agreement if necessary -- a scenario economists say would harm the economy. Members of Parliament seeking to prevent it have floated plans including replacing Johnson's government with a cross-party "government of national unity" to seek a Brexit delay.But Corbyn's insistence that he should lead that administration shows the problem with this idea."Following a successful vote of no confidence in the government, I would then, as Leader of the Opposition, seek the confidence of the House for a strictly time-limited temporary government with the aim of calling a general election, and securing the necessary extension of Article 50 to do so," Corbyn wrote.ReluctantEven Tories who are vehement opponents of Brexit would struggle with the idea of making the most socialist leader Labour has had in decades prime minister.Corbyn also got an immediate pushback from the Liberal Democrats, whose numbers grew to 14 MPs when Sarah Wollaston, a former Conservative lawmaker who left the party earlier this year, joined them on Wednesday."Jeremy Corbyn is not the person who is going to be able to build an even temporary majority in the House of Commons for this task," Liberal Democrats leader Jo Swinson said in an emailed statement. "This letter is just more red lines that are about him and his position and is not a serious attempt to find the right solution and build a consensus to stop a no-deal Brexit."Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts said that while she welcomed any attempt to thwart a no-deal Brexit, Labour's leadership "cannot command the confidence of the House of Commons."It's also possible some Labour MPs would resist -- nine have left the party this year in protest at Corbyn's leadership. His proposal confirms that he wouldn't allow Labour MPs to support any other such government.Scottish BackingBut Ian Blackford, Westminster leader of the SNP -- Parliament's third-biggest party -- said he'd be pleased to meet with Corbyn at the "earliest opportunity to work together."Corbyn's letter signaled that a confidence vote might not come the moment Parliament returns at the start of September. He said he would call one "at the earliest opportunity when we can be confident of success." That would mean waiting for a sign that at least one Conservative MP was willing to vote against his own government -- an act from which there would be no return.If Johnson did lose a confidence vote, a 14-day period would follow in which someone else could try to form a government, or he could try to win a new confidence vote. An election would be triggered if those efforts failed.Other plans are underway to stop the U.K. leaving the EU without an agreement. On Wednesday, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond warned Johnson he'll work with other ex-ministers to try to stop a no-deal Brexit, which he called a "betrayal" of the 2016 referendum result.Johnson replied that such moves were undermining his attempts to get the EU to shift. "There's a terrible kind of collaboration -- as it were -- going on between people who think they can block Brexit in Parliament and our European friends," Johnson said in a Facebook Live broadcast.As part of its no-deal Brexit preparations, the government announced it was offering a 25 million pound ($30 million) contract for an express freight service to bring medicines into the country after it leaves the European Union.Corbyn sent his letter to three members of the Conservative Party who have led efforts to block a no-deal Brexit -- Dominic Grieve, Oliver Letwin and Caroline Spelman -- as well as to the leaders of the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. He didn't include former Labour MPs who quit the party, whose votes he would also likely need.The Labour leader last week asked the U.K.'s most senior civil servant, Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill, for an assurance that if an election were called, Brexit would be delayed until after polling day. Corbyn on Wednesday described Sedwill's response as "non-committal."Responding to the Labour proposal, a spokesman for Johnson said voters now faced "a clear choice" between Johnson and Corbyn as prime minister."This government believes the people are the masters and votes should be respected," he said. "Jeremy Corbyn believes that the people are the servants and politicians can cancel public votes they don't like."(Updates with no-deal Brexit planning five paragraphs from bottom.)To contact the reporters on this story: Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net;Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Robert Hutton, Stuart Biggs, Mark WilliamsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Emergency medical supplies could be airlifted into UK after Brexit Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:01 PM PDT  An "express" freight service will be set up in an effort to ensure the UK does not run out of essential medical supplies in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Supplies could be airlifted into Britain, under the plans, which aim to prepare for all eventualities. Health officials have invited bids to tender for a 12 month contract to deliver emergency medicines and short-life treatments within 24 hours. The £25m contract is part of contingency efforts to ensure continuity of medical supplies, including time-sensitive, temperature-controlled goods. The Health Secretary has previously said flights will be used to bring medical supplies to Britain, if there is a risk of shortages. But officials said any mode of transport can bid for the contract, as long as it can meet the requirements, which aim to get small parcels of medicines to the UK within 24 hours, and larger deliveries within four days. Health Minister Chris Skidmore said: "I want to ensure that when we leave the EU at the end of October, all appropriate steps have been taken to ensure frontline services are fully prepared. "That's why we are stepping up preparations and strengthening our already extremely resilient contingency plans. "This express freight service sends a clear message to the public that our plans should ensure supply of medical goods remains uninterrupted as we leave the EU." "It is crucial we deliver the best possible preparations for the health and care system. With the ability to deliver medicine and medical products into the UK within 24 to 72 hours, the express freight service will ensure frontline services are fully preparing as we leave the EU on 31 October, whatever the circumstances." The Department of Health and Social Care said it only expects to pay £4m of the costs, with the rest paid by suppliers. The contract could be extended for a further year, if required. Mark Dayan, policy analyst at the Nuffield Trust, said: "Preparations to fly urgent medical supplies into the UK for a year after a no deal Brexit show the scale of disruption the Government is preparing for." And he said any delays at customs could mean time-sensitive medical supplies become useless.
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| UN appoints new HIV/AIDS chief after controversy Posted: 14 Aug 2019 03:41 PM PDT  United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres appointed a new HIV/AIDS chief on Wednesday after the previous incumbent left accused of serious mismanagement. Oxfam International executive director Winnie Byanyima of Uganda will lead UNAIDS, a spokesperson for Guterres said in a statement.
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| UPDATE 1-UK's Labour vows to bring down PM Johnson and delay Brexit Posted: 14 Aug 2019 03:30 PM PDT ![UPDATE 1-UK's Labour vows to bring down PM Johnson and delay Brexit]( "UPDATE 1-UK's Labour vows to bring down PM Johnson and delay Brexit") Britain's opposition Labour Party has urged rebel lawmakers in the ruling Conservatives to help block a no-deal Brexit by bringing down Prime Minister Boris Johnson's administration and allowing its leader Jeremy Corbyn to form a caretaker government. Johnson has promised to take Britain out of the European Union by Oct. 31, with or without a deal, setting the scene for a showdown in parliament where lawmakers are opposed to a divorce without a transition agreement. In a letter to opposition party leaders and several senior Conservatives opposed to a disorderly exit, Corbyn said his "strictly time-limited temporary government" would delay Brexit and hold a general election.
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| Humanitarian activist Winnie Byanyima named to head UNAIDS Posted: 14 Aug 2019 02:33 PM PDT  Winifred "Winnie" Byanyima, a former Ugandan politician and the current head of the humanitarian group Oxfam International, was appointed the new executive director of the U.N. AIDS agency on Wednesday. The previous UNAIDS chief, Michel Sidibe, left the post early in May after allegations that he improperly handled sexual assault claims against one of his deputies.
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| UK's Labour vows to bring down Johnson and lead temporary government Posted: 14 Aug 2019 02:30 PM PDT ![UK's Labour vows to bring down Johnson and lead temporary government]( "UK's Labour vows to bring down Johnson and lead temporary government") Britain's opposition Labour Party has vowed to call a vote of no-confidence in Boris Johnson's government as soon as it believes it can win it and seeks to form a temporary government under leader Jeremy Corbyn to delay Brexit. Prime Minister Johnson has promised to take Britain out of the European Union by Oct. 31, with or without a deal, setting the scene for a showdown in parliament where lawmakers are opposed to a divorce without a transition agreement. In a letter to party leaders and other senior politicians, Corbyn said his "strictly time-limited temporary government" would delay Britain's departure from the EU beyond Oct. 31 and hold a general election.
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| Yemen official: No talks before separatists leave Aden Posted: 14 Aug 2019 02:19 PM PDT ![Yemen official: No talks before separatists leave Aden]( "Yemen official: No talks before separatists leave Aden") A top Yemeni official said Wednesday that southern separatists backed by the United Arab Emirates must pull out of the port city of Aden before Yemen's internationally recognized government will engage in talks with them. Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdullah al-Hadrami said the separatists must "commit to total withdrawal from areas forcibly seized." He also called on them to hand over arms seized from forces loyal to President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The fighters for the Southern Transitional Council wrested control of Aden, which serves as Hadi's interim capital, in four days of combat.
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| Trump resists aides’ pressure to back Hong Kong protesters Posted: 14 Aug 2019 02:05 PM PDT  The president is singularly focused on cutting a trade deal with Xi Jinping, officials say.
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| Ex-Blackwater contractor sentenced to life in Iraq shootings Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:24 PM PDT  A former Blackwater security contractor was sentenced Wednesday to life in prison for his role in the 2007 shooting of unarmed civilians in Iraq that left 14 people dead. Federal judge Royce Lamberth issued the sentence after a succession of friends and relatives requested leniency for Nicholas Slatten, who was found guilty of first-degree murder by a jury in December. Prosecutors charged that Slatten, 35, was the first to fire shots in the September 2007 massacre of Iraqi civilians at a crowded traffic circle in Baghdad.
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| 2020 Democrats Say Steve King Should Resign: Campaign Update Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:12 PM PDT ![2020 Democrats Say Steve King Should Resign: Campaign Update]( "2020 Democrats Say Steve King Should Resign: Campaign Update") (Bloomberg) -- Representative Steve King has given Democratic presidential candidates more fodder to bash him and direct support to his Democratic challenger.On Wednesday, King, an Iowa Republican who has been stripped of his committee assignments for his history of offensive comments, expressed his opposition to exceptions for rape and incest in anti-abortion legislation by saying that humanity might not exist if rape and incest did not occur, according to the Des Moines Register.Many of the Democrats running for president, including Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand and Cory Booker, immediately said that King should resign, and some posted a link to donate to J.D. Scholten, the Democrat who is challenging King again after narrowly losing to him in 2018.Many Democrats had previously called for King to resign earlier this year after comments he made to The New York Times questioning why the term white supremacy was offensive.O'Rourke to Resume Campaign After Mass Shooting (10:57 A.M.)Beto O'Rourke says he'll return to the presidential campaign trail after taking more than a week off in the aftermath of the mass shooting in his hometown of El Paso.O'Rourke's campaign announced he'll give the "first major address" of his flagging presidential effort Thursday in El Paso, outlining the path forward for his candidacy.Earlier this month, a gunman killed 22 people and injured 24 at a Walmart in El Paso. Just before the shooting, the suspect posted a manifesto online in which he denounced immigration and wrote that "this attack is a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas."O'Rourke entered the presidential contest with sky-high expectations after a narrow loss to Ted Cruz in a 2018 Senate race. However, O'Rourke has failed to gain much traction in the race, and many Democrats have pushed him to drop out of the race and run for the Senate against John Cornyn in 2020.Trump Campaign Puts Focus on New Hampshire (10:05 A.M.)The Trump campaign is putting an early focus on New Hampshire, site of the nation's first presidential primary election, setting up campaign staff even though the president is virtually unopposed.A rally by President Donald Trump on Thursday comes as Democratic candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren campaign in the state this week.His campaign announced Wednesday that the Republican National Committee and campaign had put in place a political director, state director, and three Trump campaign chairs.The stated goal of the team is "up and down ballot" victories in 2020, according to Trump Campaign manager Brad Parscale in the announcement, where he also sought to cast the election as a contest between "socialist government takeover" and Trump. Sanders calls himself a socialist, and Warren's policies are left of Democratic Party norms.Elissa Voccola and Eric Mitchell will serve in RNC director roles in New Hampshire while Fred Doucette, Al Baldasaro, and Lou Gargiulo will serve as Trump campaign chairs in the critical state. -- Alyza SebeniusBennet Chides Trump's 'Endless Reality TV Show' (8:25 A.M.)Michael Bennet has a different strategy for pitching his case to be president: If elected, you just might not see him for weeks at a time."Watching Donald Trump's presidency is like watching one of those car accidents you can't take you eyes away from," the U.S. senator from Colorado told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Wednesday.The Democratic candidate -- who has not yet made the cut off for the next debates -- said Trump was "wasting everybody's time" with his "endless reality TV show." Bennet said Trump has "exhausted all of us and I think its just time to move on."Bennet wrote on Twitter last week that if elected president, "I promise you won't have to think about me for 2 weeks at a time. I'll do my job watching out for North Korea and ending this trade war. So you can go raise your kids and live your lives." -- Terrence DoppCOMING UP* President Donald Trump holds a "Keep America Great" rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Thursday.* The Democratic National Committee holds its meeting Aug. 22-24 in San Francisco. All Democratic presidential candidates are expected to speak.* The next round of Democratic presidential debates is Sept. 12-13 in Houston. So far, nine candidates have qualified to participate.\--With assistance from Terrence Dopp and Alyza Sebenius.To contact the reporter on this story: Tyler Pager in Washington at tpager1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Joe SobczykFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| No trade deal if Good Friday Agreement is undermined, top US Democrat warns Britain Posted: 14 Aug 2019 11:19 AM PDT  Britain will not get its free trade deal with America passed in the US Congress if Brexit undermines the Good Friday Agreement, the most senior Democrat in the House of Representatives has said. Nancy Pelosi released a statement on Wednesday reiterating that there will be "no chance" of a deal getting the congressional approval it needs unless the Irish border remains "seamless". The warning carries bite given that Ms Pelosi's party, the opponents of Donald Trump's Republican Party, holds the majority in the House. Both the House and the Senate, the two chambers of the US Congress, must vote through any deal struck between Britain and America for it to come into effect. The intervention, which underlines a position Ms Pelosi made clear in public earlier this year, comes after a trip to Britain by John Bolton, the White House national security adviser. During the visit Mr Bolton repeatedly talked up the prospect of a deal, floating the idea of smaller sector-by-sector agreements that could be struck rather than a single all-encompassing one. John Bolton, the White House national security adviser, has been a Brexiteer since before joining the Trump administration Credit: Tom Brenner/Bloomberg Mr Bolton, who met Boris Johnson and the Chancellor Sajid Javid during his visit, also said the Trump administration would "enthusiastically" support a no deal Brexit. The question over what changes at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland once Britain leaves the European Union remains the thorniest part of Brexit negotiations, which have stalled in recent months. Mr Johnson is demanding the so-called Irish backstop, which ensures an open border whatever future UK-EU trading arrangement is agreed, is dropped from the withdrawal agreement struck by Theresa May. He has also said Brexit will happen on October 31 with or without a new deal. In her statement Ms Pelosi, who is the House speaker, said that the Good Friday Agreement struck during Tony Blair's premiership is "the bedrock of peace in Northern Ireland and as a beacon of hope for the entire world". She added: "Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, especially now, as the first generation born into the hope of Good Friday 21 years ago comes into adulthood. We cannot go back. "If Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress. The peace of the Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be fiercely defended on a bicameral and bipartisan basis in the United States Congress." Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement. The peace of the Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be fiercely defended on a bicameral and bipartisan basis in the US Congress. https://t.co/zfRpcGnWXv— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) August 14, 2019 Both the Trump administration and the Johnson government have talked up hopes for a speedy UK-US trade deal after Brexit in the last fortnight as they seek to cement good relations. But significant hurdles stand in the way of progress for a speedy trade deal, putting aside the clashing priorities for what both sides want out of a deal. Britain cannot formally negotiate until it is outside of the EU, which at its earliest point will be November 2019. An agreement of the terms of trade between Britain and America is reliant on knowing the post-Brexit terms of trade between Britain and the EU, which may not emerge until during any transition period. The added challenges of Mr Trump's re-election being in the balance in November 2020 and the fact that the US president must return trade negotiating powers to Congress in July 2021 are also factors. The Telegraph recently revealed that Washington is demanding that the UK drop an incoming tax on tech giants like Amazon, Google and Twitter if it wants to get a trade deal.
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| Syrian troops push closer to major rebel-held northwest town Posted: 14 Aug 2019 11:05 AM PDT  Syrian government forces captured five villages in the country's northwest early Wednesday, inching closer to a major rebel-controlled town that was the scene of a deadly 2017 chemical weapons attack and forcing thousands to flee their homes to a safer area farther north, opposition activists and state media reported. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, said the warplane was shot down on the southern edge of Idlib province. The Ibaa news agency, the media arm of the main al-Qaida-linked group in northwestern Syria, posted photos of what it said was the warplane, which appeared charred and destroyed.
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| U.K. Tory Suggests Johnson Could Execute Surprise August Brexit Posted: 14 Aug 2019 10:43 AM PDT ![U.K. Tory Suggests Johnson Could Execute Surprise August Brexit]( "U.K. Tory Suggests Johnson Could Execute Surprise August Brexit") (Bloomberg) -- A senior U.K. Conservative suggested Boris Johnson could take Britain out of the European Union in the next 10 days -- without a deal -- as a surprise maneuver to outflank his opponents in parliament.Tom Tugendhat, chairman of Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, floated the idea on Twitter that Johnson could deliver Brexit before the Group of Seven summit begins on Aug. 24, and then call a general election afterward. "What odds would you give?" asked Tugendhat, a backbench member of the premier's party.Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the bloc on Oct. 31 -- the current deadline -- "do or die," without a deal if need be. Once Parliament has returned on Sept. 3, moves will begin from Johnson's internal Conservative opponents to try to stop a no-deal Brexit. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said Wednesday he was confident there was a route to doing this.According to Tugendhat -- who also opposes a no-deal Brexit -- the prime minister needs no authorization from Parliament -- which is currently on vacation -- to end Britain's EU membership before lawmakers return from their recess.The problem with a move would be that it would take industry and the markets by surprise as well. Businesses might struggle to adapt to the sudden change of regulatory environment, delivered without warning. And if a no-deal Brexit did lead to border chaos, doing it in August would hit voters as they traveled to and from their summer vacations.There are also questions about whether Tugendhat's interpretation of the law is correct. Steve Peers, Professor of EU, Human Rights & World Trade Law at Essex University, replied to him that the EU would have to agree.Johnson's office didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Alex Morales, Jessica ShanklemanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Iranian-British anthropologist held in Tehran amid tensions Posted: 14 Aug 2019 10:39 AM PDT ![Iranian-British anthropologist held in Tehran amid tensions]( "Iranian-British anthropologist held in Tehran amid tensions") A British-Iranian anthropologist who has studied child marriage and female genital mutilation in the Islamic Republic has been detained in Iran over unknown charges, his wife and activists said Wednesday, becoming the latest dual national held there amid tensions with the West. Kameel Ahmady is imprisoned in Tehran's Evin prison, where other dual nationals detained by Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard are held, and is the first British citizen known to be held since Prime Minister Boris Johnson took office last month.
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| Scotland's drug death rate behind stalling of life expectancy figures Posted: 14 Aug 2019 09:43 AM PDT  Scotland's shocking drugs death rate is so high it has been linked to the country's life expectancy figures, which have stalled after rising for three decades. Since the early 1980s life expectancy has risen by 7.9 years for men and 5.8 years for women. But the figures have stalled in recent years and have now fallen slightly for both males and females in the most recent figures from 2015-17. Opposition parties said it was "shocking" and "shameful" that life expectancy for both men and women had fallen and accused the SNP government of failing to tackle "intolerable health inequalities" after over a decade in power. According to figures from the National Records of Scotland, women can now expect to live for 81.1 years, while men have an average life expectancy of 77 years, representing a small decline of 0.1 years. The country now has lower life expectancy levels than most EU countries. The NRS report on Scotland's population last year says the fall is partly due to an increase in the number of drug-related deaths and to a slowdown in the rate of improvement in deaths from heart disease, which remains the country's major killer. Immigration is behind the increase in Scotland's population Credit: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Last month, it emerged that Scotland has the worst drugs problem in the developed world with a death rate higher than the USA and every country in Europe. The new report said the rise in drug deaths alone cut average life expectancy by over two weeks in 2018. Drugs claimed the lives of of 1,187 people last year, a 27 per cent increase on 2017. The NRS report said deprivation had a strong effect on life expectancy, with figures showing girls born in 2015-2017 in the 10 per cent most deprived areas of Scotland can expect to die 9.6 years earlier than those born in the least deprived areas. For males, the difference in life expectancy is 13 years. The data also shows that women in the most deprived neighbourhoods consider they spend a third of their lives in ill-health. Paul Lowe, Registrar General for Scotland, said: "Life expectancy in Scotland has been increasing over the long-term but recent estimates indicate that it has stopped improving. "The largest causes of the stall in life expectancy are the slowing of improvements seen in the reduction of deaths from heart disease and increases in drug-related deaths." Fiona Hyslop, the Culture Minister, said the report raised a number of issues Credit: Jane Barlow/PA Meanwhile, Scotland's population has risen for the ninth year in a row and stands at a record 5.44 million, with migration the main driver of growth. The growing population was driven by net inward migration, as deaths exceeded births by 7,700, the worst level on record. Meanwhile Scotland's total fertility rate is the lowest in the UK and falling at a faster rate than other parts of the UK. David Stewart, Scottish Labour's health spokesman, said it shameful that the life expectancy of both men and women in Scotland has slowed down and now fallen. He added: "Not only does Scotland have the lowest life expectancy rates of any part of the UK, the life expectancy gap between the richest and the poorest is growing - it cannot be right that those living in the richest areas can also expect to live in good health for over 20 years longer than those in poorest areas. "That rising numbers of drugs deaths are contributing to falling life expectancy is also troubling. Scottish Labour has been clear that the drugs deaths crisis needs urgent action and is calling on the SNP to legally designate a public health emergency. "The SNP government has failed to tackle intolerable health inequalities after over a decade in power." Miles Briggs, Scottish Conservative health spokesman, said the life expectancy figures highlighted the "national scandal" of Scotland's drug deaths. He added: "The Scottish Conservatives have already called for a cross-party summit in order to understand and tackle this problem but the SNP has failed to engage." Fiona Hyslop, the Culture Minister, said that while Scotland's total population was at its highest level, there were a "number of challenges". She added: "With all of Scotland's population growth predicted to come from migration, the impact and risk of Brexit means that we may not have a large enough working age population to support public services, industries and our economy. "We need to grow our population to ensure we have sustainable, vibrant and resilient communities and drive improvements in inclusive growth."
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| Greta Thunberg sets off for the US on carbon neutral yacht, but says she doesn't expect to win over Donald Trump Posted: 14 Aug 2019 08:00 AM PDT  Greta Thunberg has said she doesn't expect to win over Donald Trump to her climate change campaign as she embarked on a two week carbon neutral journey across the Atlantic from Plymouth to New York. Before setting off, the 16-year-old Swede said she would simply "ignore" climate sceptics and that "there are always going to be people who don't understand or accept the united science." At a blustery marina in Plymouth, Thunberg said that she was excited about her two week voyage on board the 60ft racing yacht Malizia II, and that despite feeling seasick on a test sail, she is "excited to see what happens." There is no fridge, no heating and no washing facility on the boat. For ablutions, there is a blue bucket marked 'poos here please'. But the 16-year-old Swede couldn't be happier. Ms Thunberg waved from the yacht as she set off from Plymouth on Wednesday afternoon Credit: Ben Stansall/AFP Travelling with her father Svante, two experienced skippers and a documentary maker, Thunberg says she has only packed a box of freeze-dried vegan meals, eight writing journals, some books and no change of clothes. Thunberg is travelling to New York, where she will speak at the UN climate summit on September 23 and then spend a number of months travelling around the Americas, raising awareness of the climate crisis. Today, she told The Telegraph that she didn't believe that President Trump would listen to her. Thunberg's supporter's gathered at Devil's Point, Plymouth this afternoon Credit: Ben Birchall/PA "If no-one else has succeeded, I'm not that special. I can't convince everyone, so instead of speaking to me and to the school striking children and teenagers, he should be talking to actual scientists and experts in this area," she said. On climate sceptics, she added: "There's always going to be people who don't understand or accept the united science, and I will just ignore them, as I'm only acting and communicating on the science." Thunberg clutched a metal re-usable water bottle as she boarded the Malizia II this afternoon. The boat is captained by Boris Hermann, a 38-year-old German who has sailed it around the world. It reportedly cost more than £4m to build and has solar panels and underwater turbines to generate the electricity needed to power the instruments on board. There is an emergency combustion engine, in accordance with maritime safety measures, but there are no plans to use it. The global phenomenon | Greta Thunberg Thunberg is being joined on the voyage by her father, Svante, Pierre Casiraghi, head of the Malizia II racing team and the grandson of Monaco's late Prince Ranier III and actress Grace Kelly, as well as Swedish documentary filmmaker Nathan Grossman. The boat left Plymouth just after 3pm to crowds of wellwishers on the marina pontoons and along the shoreline. Thunberg, still only 16 years old, began protesting outside the Swedish parliament just a year ago, demanding immediate action to combat climate change after the most severe wildfires in the country's history. Her movement, dubbed: "school strike for the climate" captured public attention, and by March this year, some 1.4m students at schools in 112 countries across the world were walking out of lessons on Fridays in order to raise awareness of the climate crisis. Greta Thunberg and German yachtsman Boris Herrmann in a press conference for her trip to New York Credit: ANDY RAIN/EPA-EFE/REX The trailblazing teen has spent the summer crossing Europe by train in a bid to spread her message, telling world leaders in Davos: "I want you to act like the house is on fire. Because it is." She received a round of applause from British MPs when visiting parliament in April and has had audiences with Pope Francis and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. While the transatlantic crossing will be a test of endurance, Thunberg has faced many personal challenges already in her short life. Diagnosed with Asperger syndrome, obsessive–compulsive disorder, and selective mutism, the teenager suffered from depression earlier in her childhood. "I've had my fair share of depressions, alienation, anxiety and disorders," she wrote on Facebook recently. "But without my diagnosis, I would never have started school striking. Because then I would have been like everyone else." Now, after being listed as one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people of 2019, she has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize and would become its youngest ever winner, if she is chosen in October.
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| Pelosi: No UK trade deal if Brexit undermines Good Friday accord Posted: 14 Aug 2019 07:55 AM PDT An American trade pact with Britain is doomed if the latter's withdrawal from the EU undermines the Northern Ireland peace accord, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned Wednesday. "Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland," Pelosi, the top Democrat in Congress, said in a statement.
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| In Trump's America, Why Code When You Can Dig? Posted: 14 Aug 2019 07:25 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump delivered remarks on Tuesday afternoon about "American energy and manufacturing." As you might expect, these also covered much non-contiguous ground, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell ("another beauty that I chose"), the president's love of trucks "of all types" and a curiously extended bit about pouring cement at Central Park's Wollman Rink – a subject "nobody wants to talk about," apparently.The rink riff was part of an elaborate shout-out to the Teamsters; Trump was at a new petrochemicals complex in Pennsylvania to tout his support for the local workers and fossil-fuel industry. That the message was decidedly mixed may not come as a shock, but it also says something important about the line the president is walking on energy, particularly in Pennsylvania.For me, the most interesting part came about halfway through:The last administration tried to shut down Pennsylvania coal and Pennsylvania fracking. If they got in, your fracking is gone; your coal is gone. You guys, I don't know what the hell you're going to do. You don't want to make widgets, right? [Pointing to audience] You want to learn how to make a computer? [Mimicking making something] A little tiny piece of stuff; you put it with those big beautiful hands of yours, look … Nah, you want to make steel and you want to dig coal and that's what you want to do.It should be pointed out that while Pennsylvania's coal production fell during President Barack Obama's administration, it had been declining since at least 2001. That trend was accelerated by the arrival of cheap shale gas from states such as Pennsylvania – where, as you can see below, the Obama administration presented little obstacle. Incidentally, cheap gas from fracking is the main reason Royal Dutch Shell Plc built the plastics plant at which Trump spoke – making its final investment decision in June 2016, several months before the presidential election.Trump's framing is the main thing, here, though. Toward the end of his speech, he lauded Americans' ability to "outperform anyone," adding "no one can beat us; nothing can stop us." Yet, mere weeks after the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing, he links that greatness to production of raw commodities while mocking the idea of making "widgets" or – heaven forbid – "computers."Let's just get the obvious out of the way and say America is big and fortunate enough to support a range of industries, from fracking to fabrication. Private production of all goods – including agriculture, mining, construction and manufacturing – amounts to less than 18% of GDP, while private services are 70%. Setting sectors up in mutual exclusion to each other is ridiculous.More importantly, putting one's faith in such raw-calorific concepts as "energy dominance" sells short the human ingenuity that has underpinned breakthrough after breakthrough – including, as it happens, the fracking for which the president professes such admiration. It also glosses over real trade-offs that must be addressed, such as climate change and the fact that promoting gas production is the single-biggest rival to Trump's beloved coal miners – partly because shale operators have increased productivity under pressure from the energy crash.Trump was playing to a local crowd, of course, so he was bound to focus on their particular concerns and hopes. Pennsylvania is a particularly interesting arena in this regard, in part because it's so finely balanced.Trump won the state by a margin of less than 1%, partly by focusing on factory workers who felt ignored by his opponent Hillary Clinton, during what was a mini-recession for the sector in the year leading up to November 2016. Yet, as my colleague Justin Fox wrote here, U.S. manufacturing job gains have slowed lately, and industrial production has outright declined in the past two quarters. Trump's tariffs, while nominally aimed at protecting domestic industry, are piling pressure on a weakening global economy. Tuesday's surprise decision to delay tariffs on what amounted to a Christmas gift list of products suggests they're putting pressure on American consumers too. We're a long way from the Trump-bump to industrial stocks that greeted his election.Besides being purple, Pennsylvania's energy identity is also mixed. While it's one of the country's biggest producers of fossil fuels, it's not in the same league as states traditionally seen as big energy producers. Less than 2% of Pennsylvania's GDP relates to production of oil and gas, for example – much lower than in Texas or even Colorado, which went for Clinton in 2016(1). And as I wrote here ahead of last year's midterms, Pennsylvania also looks "bluer" in terms of average income and gasoline consumption:This makes Pennsylvania a microcosm of the political trade-offs in U.S. energy. Tariffs boost Trump's standing with steelworkers but pressure energy demand (and raise producers' costs). Boosting fracking, meanwhile, modestly helps the state's economy but exacerbates the pressure on coal miners from natural gas without necessarily paying much of a political dividend on the oil side, given Pennsylvania's relatively low average gasoline burden. On the other hand, those relying on fuel oil for heating may be more sensitive to rising prices, which in turn bears on Trump's confrontation with Iran and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is the only one of 15 states with a low- or zero-emissions vehicle program where Trump won the popular vote in 2016, according to ClearView Energy Partners.Such complex networks of influence and impact perhaps explain why Trump has resorted to trying to end-run the energy market in certain respects. For example, trying to force through subsidies for coal-fired power plants offers one route to garnering votes from miners while also supporting fracking – and socializing the costs and inefficiencies more opaquely across the broader electorate. In what has become a hallmark of his administration, Trump's electoral instincts push him to divide that which is inherently linked.(1) These data are taken from ClearView Energy Partners' "Energy Policy by the Numbers, 2019 Update"To contact the author of this story: Liam Denning at ldenning1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| In Trump's America, Why Code When You Can Dig? Posted: 14 Aug 2019 07:25 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump delivered remarks on Tuesday afternoon about "American energy and manufacturing." As you might expect, these also covered much non-contiguous ground, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell ("another beauty that I chose"), the president's love of trucks "of all types" and a curiously extended bit about pouring cement at Central Park's Wollman Rink – a subject "nobody wants to talk about," apparently.The rink riff was part of an elaborate shout-out to the Teamsters; Trump was at a new petrochemicals complex in Pennsylvania to tout his support for the local workers and fossil-fuel industry. That the message was decidedly mixed may not come as a shock, but it also says something important about the line the president is walking on energy, particularly in Pennsylvania.For me, the most interesting part came about halfway through:The last administration tried to shut down Pennsylvania coal and Pennsylvania fracking. If they got in, your fracking is gone; your coal is gone. You guys, I don't know what the hell you're going to do. You don't want to make widgets, right? [Pointing to audience] You want to learn how to make a computer? [Mimicking making something] A little tiny piece of stuff; you put it with those big beautiful hands of yours, look … Nah, you want to make steel and you want to dig coal and that's what you want to do.It should be pointed out that while Pennsylvania's coal production fell during President Barack Obama's administration, it had been declining since at least 2001. That trend was accelerated by the arrival of cheap shale gas from states such as Pennsylvania – where, as you can see below, the Obama administration presented little obstacle. Incidentally, cheap gas from fracking is the main reason Royal Dutch Shell Plc built the plastics plant at which Trump spoke – making its final investment decision in June 2016, several months before the presidential election.Trump's framing is the main thing, here, though. Toward the end of his speech, he lauded Americans' ability to "outperform anyone," adding "no one can beat us; nothing can stop us." Yet, mere weeks after the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing, he links that greatness to production of raw commodities while mocking the idea of making "widgets" or – heaven forbid – "computers."Let's just get the obvious out of the way and say America is big and fortunate enough to support a range of industries, from fracking to fabrication. Private production of all goods – including agriculture, mining, construction and manufacturing – amounts to less than 18% of GDP, while private services are 70%. Setting sectors up in mutual exclusion to each other is ridiculous.More importantly, putting one's faith in such raw-calorific concepts as "energy dominance" sells short the human ingenuity that has underpinned breakthrough after breakthrough – including, as it happens, the fracking for which the president professes such admiration. It also glosses over real trade-offs that must be addressed, such as climate change and the fact that promoting gas production is the single-biggest rival to Trump's beloved coal miners – partly because shale operators have increased productivity under pressure from the energy crash.Trump was playing to a local crowd, of course, so he was bound to focus on their particular concerns and hopes. Pennsylvania is a particularly interesting arena in this regard, in part because it's so finely balanced.Trump won the state by a margin of less than 1%, partly by focusing on factory workers who felt ignored by his opponent Hillary Clinton, during what was a mini-recession for the sector in the year leading up to November 2016. Yet, as my colleague Justin Fox wrote here, U.S. manufacturing job gains have slowed lately, and industrial production has outright declined in the past two quarters. Trump's tariffs, while nominally aimed at protecting domestic industry, are piling pressure on a weakening global economy. Tuesday's surprise decision to delay tariffs on what amounted to a Christmas gift list of products suggests they're putting pressure on American consumers too. We're a long way from the Trump-bump to industrial stocks that greeted his election.Besides being purple, Pennsylvania's energy identity is also mixed. While it's one of the country's biggest producers of fossil fuels, it's not in the same league as states traditionally seen as big energy producers. Less than 2% of Pennsylvania's GDP relates to production of oil and gas, for example – much lower than in Texas or even Colorado, which went for Clinton in 2016(1). And as I wrote here ahead of last year's midterms, Pennsylvania also looks "bluer" in terms of average income and gasoline consumption:This makes Pennsylvania a microcosm of the political trade-offs in U.S. energy. Tariffs boost Trump's standing with steelworkers but pressure energy demand (and raise producers' costs). Boosting fracking, meanwhile, modestly helps the state's economy but exacerbates the pressure on coal miners from natural gas without necessarily paying much of a political dividend on the oil side, given Pennsylvania's relatively low average gasoline burden. On the other hand, those relying on fuel oil for heating may be more sensitive to rising prices, which in turn bears on Trump's confrontation with Iran and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is the only one of 15 states with a low- or zero-emissions vehicle program where Trump won the popular vote in 2016, according to ClearView Energy Partners.Such complex networks of influence and impact perhaps explain why Trump has resorted to trying to end-run the energy market in certain respects. For example, trying to force through subsidies for coal-fired power plants offers one route to garnering votes from miners while also supporting fracking – and socializing the costs and inefficiencies more opaquely across the broader electorate. In what has become a hallmark of his administration, Trump's electoral instincts push him to divide that which is inherently linked.(1) These data are taken from ClearView Energy Partners' "Energy Policy by the Numbers, 2019 Update"To contact the author of this story: Liam Denning at ldenning1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Sudan's rebels want a role in transitional government Posted: 14 Aug 2019 07:18 AM PDT ![Sudan's rebels want a role in transitional government]( "Sudan's rebels want a role in transitional government") A Sudanese rebel alliance says it should be represented in the transitional government formed by the military and the pro-democracy movement following an agreement reached earlier this month. Sudan has been convulsed by rebellions in its far-flung provinces for decades. A cease-fire has held since the military overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir in April, and the rebels have joined the main pro-democracy coalition.
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| Trump news: President endorses man who openly avows white nationalism, collects Nazi relics and called Sandy Hook 'a hoax' Posted: 14 Aug 2019 06:31 AM PDT  Donald Trump has endorsed the political ambitions of ex-Arizona Diamondbacks baseball star Curt Schilling, an outspoken conservative and Breitbart podcast host known for espousing conspiracy theories and white nationalist rhetoric and collecting Nazi memorabilia.The development comes after the president addressed energy workers in Pennsylvania on Tuesday and joked about calling off the 2020 election and serving a third term, attacking his political opponents including Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, despite the event not being earmarked for campaigning.Speaking to staff after touring the Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex in Monaca, Mr Trump also spread misinformation about wind power ("All of the sudden it stops – the wind and the televisions go off") after defending his retweeting of baseless rumours about the death of billionaire sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Mr Trump's comments at the Shell Plant also sought to take credit for the whole place, even though it was actually green lit and started in 2012 when Barack Obama was president.As Mr Trump rested from that trip, the White House was relatively quiet on Wednesday.But, vice president Mike Pence announced he would be visiting Ireland soon, adding gravity to previous statements that Congress would not ratify a trade deal with the UK if the post-Brexit landscape did not honour the Good Friday Agreement.Please allow a moment for our liveblog to load
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| U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty Posted: 14 Aug 2019 06:00 AM PDT ![U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty]( "U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The tariff burden from the U.S.-China trade conflict is "falling almost 100 percent on China," President Donald Trump's senior economic adviser Larry Kudlow argued last week. But take a look at what's happening to business investment in the U.S., and it's obvious Kudlow is wrong.Some businesses stand to gain from the president's trade policy — especially those that compete with Chinese imports. Many others stand to lose. And none can be certain how Trump's conflict with China will play out over the coming months and years. This leads companies to delay investment decisions, in hopes that the outlook will one day clear up.Their paralyzing uncertainty is driven by the president's veering from one position to another. Businesses seem increasingly convinced that he doesn't understand the basics of international economics. Trump bemoans the relative strength of the dollar one day, declaring China a currency manipulator, and the next he praises dollar-strengthening inflows of foreign investment. With such a tenuous grasp on the facts of the situation, how can he make predictable policy? How can businesses anticipate what he'll do?At the same time, events are making the post hoc rationalizations about Trump's trade regime — that he is actually a radical free trader using tariffs to make trade even more free in the future — increasingly unpersuasive. There's growing acceptance that the president really is a protectionist to his core.The U.S. had been imposing a 25% levy on $250 billion in Chinese imports. In June, Trump agreed not to impose additional tariffs and to restart trade negotiations with China. Earlier this month, he abruptly changed his mind, instituting a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China, effective Sept. 1. But then came Tuesday, when he delayed much of this action until December. "We're doing this for the Christmas season," the president explained. "Just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers." This is a shocking reversal from his longstanding insistence that his tariffs don't have a negative effect on the U.S.Who can tell what he'll do next? Will something he sees on cable news goad him into reversing the delay? Will he raise the new tariffs to 25%? Or higher? For businesses in this environment, the option value of delaying investment decisions is quite high.Huseyin Gulen of Purdue University and Mihai Ion of the University of Arizona have attempted to quantify the effect of elevated policy uncertainty on corporate investment. In a 2016 paper, they show that a doubling of the level of political and regulatory uncertainty — after controlling for measures of broader economic uncertainty — is associated with an 8.7% decline in investment.New research suggests that the trade war follows this pattern. Economists at Goldman Sachs looked at data from 70 industries, and found that the sectors with the highest share of total sales in China had markedly lower capital expenditures in early 2018, when trade tensions began to escalate. Over the previous two decades, those same industries invested relatively heavily.Of course, if businesses are feeling more pessimistic about the trade war, they may not just delay investments (and hiring) but cut back. Many surveys show that business sentiment has noticeably darkened. Some further suggest an elevated risk of recession.The trade war's likely effects help explain what happened to the promised investment boom following the 2017 corporate tax cuts. The Trump administration stimulated business spending with its left hand, but slowed it with its right.The president is working against more than just his tax cuts. By pumping the brakes on economic growth, he's hurting his own reelection chances. You would think that would motivate him to reach a face-saving deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and quickly. But this protectionist president seems not to have adequate clarity on what is and is not in his — and the U.S. economy's — best interest.To contact the author of this story: Michael R. Strain at mstrain4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Mary Duenwald at mduenwald@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is director of economic policy studies and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the editor of "The U.S. Labor Market: Questions and Challenges for Public Policy."For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty Posted: 14 Aug 2019 06:00 AM PDT ![U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty]( "U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty") (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The tariff burden from the U.S.-China trade conflict is "falling almost 100 percent on China," President Donald Trump's senior economic adviser Larry Kudlow argued last week. But take a look at what's happening to business investment in the U.S., and it's obvious Kudlow is wrong.Some businesses stand to gain from the president's trade policy — especially those that compete with Chinese imports. Many others stand to lose. And none can be certain how Trump's conflict with China will play out over the coming months and years. This leads companies to delay investment decisions, in hopes that the outlook will one day clear up.Their paralyzing uncertainty is driven by the president's veering from one position to another. Businesses seem increasingly convinced that he doesn't understand the basics of international economics. Trump bemoans the relative strength of the dollar one day, declaring China a currency manipulator, and the next he praises dollar-strengthening inflows of foreign investment. With such a tenuous grasp on the facts of the situation, how can he make predictable policy? How can businesses anticipate what he'll do?At the same time, events are making the post hoc rationalizations about Trump's trade regime — that he is actually a radical free trader using tariffs to make trade even more free in the future — increasingly unpersuasive. There's growing acceptance that the president really is a protectionist to his core.The U.S. had been imposing a 25% levy on $250 billion in Chinese imports. In June, Trump agreed not to impose additional tariffs and to restart trade negotiations with China. Earlier this month, he abruptly changed his mind, instituting a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China, effective Sept. 1. But then came Tuesday, when he delayed much of this action until December. "We're doing this for the Christmas season," the president explained. "Just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers." This is a shocking reversal from his longstanding insistence that his tariffs don't have a negative effect on the U.S.Who can tell what he'll do next? Will something he sees on cable news goad him into reversing the delay? Will he raise the new tariffs to 25%? Or higher? For businesses in this environment, the option value of delaying investment decisions is quite high.Huseyin Gulen of Purdue University and Mihai Ion of the University of Arizona have attempted to quantify the effect of elevated policy uncertainty on corporate investment. In a 2016 paper, they show that a doubling of the level of political and regulatory uncertainty — after controlling for measures of broader economic uncertainty — is associated with an 8.7% decline in investment.New research suggests that the trade war follows this pattern. Economists at Goldman Sachs looked at data from 70 industries, and found that the sectors with the highest share of total sales in China had markedly lower capital expenditures in early 2018, when trade tensions began to escalate. Over the previous two decades, those same industries invested relatively heavily.Of course, if businesses are feeling more pessimistic about the trade war, they may not just delay investments (and hiring) but cut back. Many surveys show that business sentiment has noticeably darkened. Some further suggest an elevated risk of recession.The trade war's likely effects help explain what happened to the promised investment boom following the 2017 corporate tax cuts. The Trump administration stimulated business spending with its left hand, but slowed it with its right.The president is working against more than just his tax cuts. By pumping the brakes on economic growth, he's hurting his own reelection chances. You would think that would motivate him to reach a face-saving deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and quickly. But this protectionist president seems not to have adequate clarity on what is and is not in his — and the U.S. economy's — best interest.To contact the author of this story: Michael R. Strain at mstrain4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Mary Duenwald at mduenwald@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is director of economic policy studies and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the editor of "The U.S. Labor Market: Questions and Challenges for Public Policy."For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Merkel: European mission in Strait of Hormuz likely to be discussed in Finland Posted: 14 Aug 2019 05:53 AM PDT ![Merkel: European mission in Strait of Hormuz likely to be discussed in Finland]( "Merkel: European mission in Strait of Hormuz likely to be discussed in Finland") German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday she believed the idea of a European naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz would be discussed again at informal meetings of European foreign and defence ministers in Finland later this month. "I think the question of a European mission will be discussed there again because this discussion has not yet taken place everywhere and so I believe that the Finnish presidency will play a coordinating role on that," Merkel told a news conference after meeting visiting Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. EU foreign ministers and defence ministers are due to hold informal meetings in Helsinki in late August.
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| UPDATE 2-U.S.-British trade pact won't pass Congress if Good Friday deal harmed -Pelosi Posted: 14 Aug 2019 05:47 AM PDT ![UPDATE 2-U.S.-British trade pact won't pass Congress if Good Friday deal harmed -Pelosi]( "UPDATE 2-U.S.-British trade pact won't pass Congress if Good Friday deal harmed -Pelosi") There is no chance the U.S. Congress would approve a planned U.S.-British trade deal if Britain's exit from the European Union undermines the landmark 1998 Good Friday peace agreement for Northern Ireland, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Wednesday. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is negotiating a free trade deal with Britain that would go into effect after it completes Brexit, now scheduled for Oct. 31. Any U.S.-British trade agreement would have to pass the U.S. Congress.
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| Hammond Warns Johnson He'll Fight a No-Deal Brexit in Parliament Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:53 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Philip Hammond warned Prime Minister Boris Johnson he'll work through Parliament along with other former Cabinet ministers to try to stop the U.K. leaving the European Union without a divorce deal.Johnson has said he's committed to delivering Brexit "do or die" on Oct. 31. While he says he wants to do so with a deal, he is yet to meet any EU leaders as the clock ticks down. Instead, he's insisting that they must reopen the deal negotiated by his predecessor, Theresa May, and remove a section designed to prevent a hard border between the U.K. and Ireland.To persuade the bloc to do that, Johnson's government has ramped up its rhetoric about preparations for a no-deal Brexit. But that has provoked those in his own Conservative Party who argue this would do huge economic damage."Leaving the EU without a deal would be just as much of a betrayal of the referendum result as not leaving at all," Hammond, who was May's Chancellor of the Exchequer, told the BBC on Wednesday. "To set the bar for negotiations so high that we inevitably leave without a deal would be a betrayal. The prime minister said he would get a deal and we want to see him deliver that deal."'Terrible Collaboration'Johnson later accused Hammond and others of effectively working with the EU to undermine his negotiating position."There's a terrible kind of collaboration going on between people who think they can block Brexit in Parliament and our European friends," the prime minister said in a Facebook Live broadcast on Wednesday. "The more they think that there's a chance that Brexit can be blocked in Parliament, the more adamant they are in sticking to their position."The government doesn't expect any movement from the EU until it's clear whether or not Parliament can block a no-deal Brexit, a person familiar with the matter said earlier this week. The EU has repeatedly ruled out renegotiating the withdrawal agreement, saying it's the only deal available. Hammond, who denies he's trying to block Brexit and voted three times this year to leave the EU with a deal, said he was "very confident" Parliament had the means to stop Johnson, but said that didn't mean there was a majority to do so. His argument was backed up by a letter to Johnson signed by Hammond and 20 other Tories -- including several former Cabinet ministers -- urging him to change course."We are alarmed by the 'Red Lines' you have drawn which, on the face of it appear to eliminate the chance of reaching agreement with the EU," they wrote in the letter, The Sun newspaper reported.Even with his Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party allies, Johnson has a working majority in Parliament of just one. That means Hammond and his group have the numbers, at least in theory, to compel a shift in strategy.In a separate warning, Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow said on Tuesday he would fight any attempt by the government to suspend Parliament to force through a split many lawmakers oppose. His support to MPs trying to stop a no-deal Brexit has already proved crucial, with parliamentary rules changed to allow different maneuvers.(Updates with Johnson comment in fifth paragraph.)\--With assistance from Jessica Shankleman.To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Mark WilliamsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UPDATE 1-UK court blocks bid to prosecute PM Johnson over Brexit bus claim Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:48 AM PDT ![UPDATE 1-UK court blocks bid to prosecute PM Johnson over Brexit bus claim]( "UPDATE 1-UK court blocks bid to prosecute PM Johnson over Brexit bus claim") A campaigner who wanted to prosecute British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for allegedly lying about the benefits of Brexit before the 2016 European Union referendum, on Wednesday lost his bid to take the case to Britain's top court. Marcus Ball, 29, wanted to bring the crowdfunded private prosecution against Johnson for misconduct in public office over a claim emblazoned on his bright red "Leave" campaign bus that Britain would be 350 million pounds ($445 million) a week better off outside the EU. Ball had asked for permission to appeal that decision to the Supreme Court but on Wednesday his application to do so was refused by the High Court.
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| UK PM Johnson says Britons want Brexit, not an election Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:22 AM PDT ![UK PM Johnson says Britons want Brexit, not an election]( "UK PM Johnson says Britons want Brexit, not an election") British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday Britons wanted politicians to get on with delivering Brexit and were frustrated that they had failed to ensure a departure from the European Union. Asked if he would hold an election after Oct. 31 to ensure parliament could not prevent Brexit on that date, Johnson said: "I think the British public have had a lot of elections and electoral events. "I think what they want us to do is deliver Brexit on October 31 and I never tire of telling you that is what we are going to do," Johnson said in a "People's PMQs" question-and-answer session on Facebook.
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| German govt still sees economy growing slightly in 2019 despite Q2 contraction Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:20 AM PDT ![German govt still sees economy growing slightly in 2019 despite Q2 contraction]( "German govt still sees economy growing slightly in 2019 despite Q2 contraction") Chancellor Angela Merkel's government still believes the German economy will grow slightly this year despite contracting in the second quarter, a spokeswoman said on Wednesday, adding that the government did not think further stimulus was necessary. "As the chancellor has already laid out, the government does not currently see any need for further measures to stabilise the economy - the fiscal policy of the German government is already expansive," a government spokeswoman said. Economy Minister Peter Altmaier had said earlier on Wednesday that Germany was not yet in a recession and could avoid one if it took the right measures.
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| British PM Johnson says opponents of Brexit are "collaborating" with EU Posted: 14 Aug 2019 04:19 AM PDT ![British PM Johnson says opponents of Brexit are "collaborating" with EU]( "British PM Johnson says opponents of Brexit are \"collaborating\" with EU") Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday that some British lawmakers who thought they could bloc Brexit were engaging in a "terrible" collaboration with the EU. "There is a terrible kind of collaboration as it were going on between those who think they can block Brexit in parliament and our European friends," Johnson said in a "People's PMQs" question-and-answer session on Facebook. "Our European friends ... are not compromising at all," Johnson said.
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| Hong Kong protesters apologise after violence in airport Posted: 14 Aug 2019 03:52 AM PDT  Hong Kong protesters yesterday apologised for "over-reacting" during heated clashes at the city's airport where suspected Chinese spies were detained and beaten by some demonstrators. Flights resumed at Hong Kong's international airport on Wednesday after Tuesday's stand off ended in violent confrontations between pro-democracy protesters and riot police. Hundreds of flights were cancelled on Tuesday after activists blocked the terminal and clashed with police in chaotic scenes that saw officers fire pepper spray and one draw his gun. "It is not our intention to cause delays to your travels," read a formal statement issued by protesters on Wednesday night, "we ask for your understanding and forgiveness as young people in Hong Kong continue to fight for freedom." "After months of prolonged resistance, we are frightened, angry and exhausted," it continued. "Some of us have become easily agitated and over-reacted last night." Beijing seized on the chaotic scenes to condemn the protesters on Wednesday for "near-terrorism" at Hong Kong airport, denouncing them for "violent acts" after they surrounded two men, fuelled by suspicions that they were undercover police or spies. It later emerged that one was a traveller at the airport, and the other, a reporter for China's Global Times newspaper, a state media outlet controlled by the Communist Party. China has ramped up its rhetoric of the protests lately, sending ominous signals that military and police officers were ready to deploy at a moment's notice to restore order. On Wednesday the US State Department said it was concerned about movements of Chinese forces on the border and urged Beijing to honor the territory's autonomy. "The United States is deeply concerned by reports of Chinese paramilitary movement along the Hong Kong border," a spokesperson said. "The United States strongly urges Beijing to adhere to its commitments in the Sino-British Joint Declaration to allow Hong Kong to exercise a high degree of autonomy." China on Wednesday denied requests for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong, the Pacific Fleet said on Tuesday. The USS Green Bay, an amphibious dock landing ship, was to stop in Hong Kong on Saturday, while the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie planned a port call there next month. Early this month, Beijing demanded that US diplomats based in Hong Kong "stop interfering" in the city's affairs, after reports that they met with pro-democracy activists. US President Donald Trump, however, faced criticism at home on Tuesday for avoiding harsh words over Beijing's response to the protesters, who object to sliding freedoms in the semi-autonomous global financial center. A US Navy ship last visited Hong Kong in April. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab tweeted Tuesday: "Concerning to see what's happening in Hong Kong and the worrying pictures of clashes between police & protesters at the airport. As I said to Carrie Lam during my call last week, we condemn the violence & encourage constructive dialogue to find a peaceful way forward." Hong Kong protests | Read more And on Tuesday the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights urged Hong Kong to exercise restraint and investigate evidence of its forces firing tear gas at protesters in ways banned under international law. Security at the airport was tighter than usual on Wednesday and authorities had obtained an injunction preventing any further protests at the site, although there were doubts as to its efficacy. Some entrances were closed and armed police patrolled by check-in counters in the departures hall. Airlines were working to rebook thousands of stranded passengers after hundreds of flights were delayed or cancelled this week after demonstrators flooded the departures terminal and arrivals hall. A handful of demonstrators remained on Wednesday but operations otherwise largely returned to normal. The protesters sat on the ground sharing snacks and waving posters, some of which apologised for the disruption. The airport has been flooded by activists since last Friday as they argue it is the last safe refuge from tear gas, which cannot be fired inside without hitting foreign tourists. Last weekend, violence escalated significantly when riot police fired tear gas into a subway station. "It is as a last resort that we have moved the protest to the airport," demonstrators said in a statement. "After months of prolonged resistance, we are frightened, angry and exhausted. Some of us have become easily agitated and over-reacted last night. For this we feel pained and dispirited and would like to express our most sincere apologies." British comedian Bill Bailey was caught up in the chaos with his family while on a layover from Bali back to London. At HK airport tonight , protesters were concerned for our safety, they offered water and apologised for the inconvenience. Police arrived try to enter Terminal 1 but were hugely outnumbered and retreated . Riot police turned up and it kicked off— Bill Bailey (@BillBailey) August 13, 2019 "I think the scale of protests is extraordinary," he told The Telegraph. "We've been coming to Hong Kong for over 20 years now; I've worked here, and we've never seen anything like it." "Everyone's been good natured, very polite, very respectful. Protesters came up to us and offered us food and drink, and said 'sorry you've had to wait,' and are constantly apologising for the inconvenience, hoping that we understand." Hong Kong is facing its worst political crisis since the former British colony was returned to Chinese rule. Millions first came to the streets against an extradition proposal that would have sent people to face trial in mainland China, where the Communist Party controls the courts. Anger has risen steadily against city leaders for failing to make any concessions and the police for escalating crowd-control tactics, shooting tear gas, rubber bullets and bean bag rounds ending almost all protest in violence. Last night Hong Kong police fired teargas at hundreds of protesters who had gathered outside a police station in the residential area of Sham Shui Po in Kowloon. Witnesses at the scene saw police shoot several rounds with little warning at demonstrators who had been shining laser beams at the police station and burning joss papers on the roadside.
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| UK court blocks bid to prosecute PM Johnson over Brexit bus claim Posted: 14 Aug 2019 03:30 AM PDT ![UK court blocks bid to prosecute PM Johnson over Brexit bus claim]( "UK court blocks bid to prosecute PM Johnson over Brexit bus claim") A campaigner who wanted to prosecute British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for allegedly lying about the benefits of Brexit before the 2016 European Union referendum, has lost his bid to take the case to Britain's top court, Sky News reported. Marcus Ball, 29, wanted to bring the crowdfunded private prosecution against Johnson for misconduct in public office over a claim emblazoned on his bright red "Leave" campaign bus that Britain would be 350 million pounds ($445 million) a week better off outside the EU.
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| Germany Needs a Recession to Start Spending Posted: 14 Aug 2019 03:05 AM PDT  (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Germany is on the brink of a recession. This isn't happening because of any structural problems: U.S. President Donald Trump's trade wars are the main culprit. Still, Germany's powerful industrial lobby now is openly questioning the government's adherence to the famous schwarze Null, or zero budget deficit, policy.Output shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months. The contraction is a consequence of a drop in industrial production and construction that amounted to 0.6% of gross domestic product. Government spending and domestic demand, which was stronger than in the first quarter, compensated for most of this decline. "Had we seen a domestic demand in this cycle as weak as we saw it in the recovery after 2005, the German economy would already be back in a deep recession," tweeted Sebastian Dullien, an economics professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin. Germans haven't felt too much pain from weakening demand for the country's export goods, especially cars and machinery. Unemployment dropped to a record low of 3.1 percent at the end of June on the back of a healthy services sector and domestic demand. Yet with more trade shocks possible – after all, Trump has kept threatening the European Union with tariffs – pressure is mounting on the German government to do more to boost the economy. The Greens and some Social Democrats from the party's left flank have called for more government spending to fund a quicker green energy shift and infrastructure improvements. But more importantly, the country's mighty industrial lobby, the Federation of German Industries (BDI), has also argued for reexamining the deficit-free policy. In an op-ed published in the business daily Handelsblatt on Wednesday, BDI chief Joachim Lang called for investment incentives for innovation and government funding for artificial intelligence and a stronger digital infrastructure. While the government can borrow at negative rates, it should go to the financial markets and obtain "a double-digit billion amount in the medium term" for a state venture fund; it should also cut taxes for businesses by 15 to 20 billion euros ($17 billion to $22 billion) to stimulate private investment."Unlike the debt brake, which is enshrined in the constitution, the schwarze Null ought be reexamined given the fragile situation," Lang wrote.Germany's constitution, indeed, limits the structural budget deficit to 0.35% of economic output and only allows a bigger shortfall during a slowdown if it's repaid when growth picks up again. But Germany's negative borrowing costs make the government's determined stinginess rather illogical to an increasing number of political players. Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Union clearly won't be penalized by its traditional support base for loosening the purse strings in such a situation. On the contrary, more generous policies can increase its support and bring back some of the voters the CDU has lost in the last two years, especially to the Greens.Merkel and her chosen successor, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, as well as Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, recently have defended the deficit-free policy. They have argued that the current budget surplus provides enough flexibility for added spending if needed, and more stimulus would come from the planned elimination of the so-called solidarity tax, meant to boost the economic development of Germany's eastern states, in 2021. The government's draft 2020 budget is still based on a zero deficit.On Tuesday, though, Merkel gave the first indication that this conservative stance could be reconsidered if things get worse. "We will react according to the situation," she said.It's unclear what it will take for Merkel finally to change her mind. In a way, it's sensible for her and Scholz not to rush things. Giving up the schwarze Null would be a major turnabout, and the government needs a strong reason for it. The CDU and the Social Democrats don't want to be seen yielding to pressure or engaging in cheap populism to win back voters.They need to decide whether a technical recession is a good enough reason to use the heavy artillery or whether it would be wiser to wait for more clarity on how Trump's trade wars play out. Given Germany's low unemployment, strong domestic demand and long horizon before the next big election, Merkel can afford to ponder the right timing.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Baker at stebaker@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Trump Faces Election Reality on Trade War Pain Posted: 14 Aug 2019 03:00 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- Want to receive this post in your inbox every day? Sign up for the Balance of Power newsletter, and follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and Facebook for more.Did U.S. President Donald Trump just blink in his trade war with China?His move to delay new tariffs on a wide range of consumer products such as smart-phones, laptops and toys until December suggests an awareness of the impact the penalties are having on American consumers, companies and markets, and potentially on his campaign for re-election next year.Tellingly, he said the decision was made "so it won't be relevant to the Christmas shopping season" — a swing from his previous position that China alone bears the cost of the tariffs.Still, that doesn't mean there's a sudden improvement in the atmosphere surrounding the trade talks. While the announcement came after senior officials spoke by phone — "very productive," Trump said — few expect any breakthrough soon.Indeed, Beijing may sense its best option is to wait Trump out as the election approaches and his farming base feels the pain of losses in agricultural sales to China.Yet it too faces an economy that posted its weakest industrial output growth since 2002 and a widening political crisis in its vital commercial hub, Hong Kong.For both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping a precious commodity is slipping away: time.Global HeadlinesTurbulent times | Beijing's warnings increased after two days of disruptive protests at Hong Kong's airport, including a chaotic night Tuesday that saw two people beaten amid claims they were undercover police. Chinese officials said the demonstrators' behavior was "no different to terrorists" and airport authorities restricted terminal access even as small groups of protesters remain.Click here for a look at the dilemma facing Xi on the Hong Kong crisis.Warship snub | China has refused port visits to Hong Kong by two U.S. warships amid the trade war and U.S. politicians' criticism of the tactics Hong Kong police have used against protesters. The last such denial was in September after Washington sanctioned the Chinese military over Russian arms purchases.Day jobs | Some Democratic presidential candidates are using Congress to compliment their campaigns. Five have hit career highs in bill-drafting productivity this year, and it's only August. That may help aspirants demonstrate they're not afraid of getting into the nitty-gritty of policy.Trump has been boasting about creating manufacturing jobs in Rust Belt states such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but an emerging recession in the sector could imperil his message.Changing tune | Chancellor Angela Merkel has shifted from completely ruling out fiscal stimulus in Germany to saying "so far" it isn't necessary. Data confirming a contraction in Europe's largest economy in the second quarter add pressure for her to open the government's purse strings, even as Germany remains bound by stringent limitations on raising debt.Bad blood | Relations between the two largest economies in South America could sour if Alberto Fernandez mirrors his strong showing in Argentina's primaries to win the presidency in October. Fernandez has called right-wing Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro "racist, violent and misogynistic," while Bolsonaro has warned of a Venezuelan-style exodus from Argentina if a left-wing government returns to power.What to WatchThe Trump administration is readying a plan to end direct federal regulation of methane leaks from oil and gas facilities, even as some energy companies insist they don't want the relief. Italian lawmakers summoned Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to appear before the Senate on Aug. 20 as Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini pushes for a quick confidence vote that would lead to a snap election.And finally...Chile has 80% of South America's glaciers, but they're melting fast because of climate change, drought and human activity, including mining. As Laura Millan Lombrana reports, it's a crisis-in-the-making that poses a dilemma for the government of Latin American's richest nation: How to protect the precious fresh-water reserves locked up in the ice, while accommodating a copper-mining industry worth $19 billion a year. \--With assistance from Kathleen Hunter, Alan Crawford, Karen Leigh, Raymond Colitt and Bruce Douglas.To contact the author of this story: Karl Maier in Rome at kmaier2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| Secret Russia weapon project: gamechanger or PR stunt? Posted: 14 Aug 2019 02:55 AM PDT  A deadly explosion at a Russian testing site has focused attention on President Vladimir Putin's bid to build a nuclear-powered missile that the Kremlin hopes would give Moscow the edge in a new arms race. Western experts have linked the blast at the Nyonoksa test site on August 8, which caused a sharp spike in local radiation levels, to the 9M730 Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile first revealed by Putin in 2018. The Kremlin has, however, not confirmed that the accident was linked to the Burevestnik project and the identity of the missile that exploded remains uncertain.
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| Why are there protests in Hong Kong and where will they end? Posted: 14 Aug 2019 02:51 AM PDT  Hong Kong has this summer faced the worst political turmoil since its handover to China in 1997. Residents first poured onto the streets to protest an extradition proposal that would send suspects to face trial in China, where the Communist Party controls the courts. When city leaders failed to defuse tensions, police sought to curtail the largely peaceful rallies by shooting tear gas, rubber bullets and foam rounds – a serious escalation in a city long known for being one of the safest places in the world. Protesters believe that because the extradition proposal has only been suspended, and not formally withdrawn, lawmakers could still quickly table and pass the legislation. Their demands have since grown to include the resignation of Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam, an independent commission to investigate police brutality, and wider political reforms to allow for residents to directly elect its leader. Britain's response During the leadership race, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt called on Beijing to uphold the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which guaranteed freedoms for at least 50 years in the territory after its handover. But many residents say liberties have sharply eroded, especially since Xi Jinping took power as the head of the Communist Party in 2012. The agreement is a legally binding treaty registered at the United Nations, and places responsibility on both signatories to ensure rights in Hong Kong, which means the UK could raise the issue at the UN. Hong Kong protests However, Britain's willingness to take on China as the Brexit process calls for new trade links outside the EU could be limited. Lord Chris Patten, the last colonial governor, has called on the British government to do more to support the protesters, saying "We shouldn't forget there is such a thing as honour, and we're honour-bound to stand up for freedom in Hong Kong, the freedoms we promised people for years." In late June, the UK halted further export licenses for crowd control equipment indefinitely until human rights concerns were "thoroughly addressed," said then-Foreign Secretary Mr Hunt. Some of the tear gas canisters fired appeared to have been made by British defence contractor PW Defence, according to Amnesty International, a human rights group. In an interview with a Chinese language broadcaster in July, Mr Johnson said his government would be "very pro-China." Where the protests stand Hong Kong is now in its third month of mass demonstrations. The leaderless movement has used social media and mass Airdrops to spread the word, with many groups organising rallies in several neighbourhoods. Despite lacking a figurehead, the protesters show no sign of splintering and appear to only have become more determined. Chants of "Reclaim Hong Kong, it's time for revolution!" have overtaken the slogans that defined the early days of the movement, when people were shouting, "No extradition to China!" It's a shift that reflects how upset Hong Kongers have become with Beijing's creeping influence in the region, and could prompt a greater crackdown by the government. While the rallies begin peacefully during the day, they now end in pandemonium as police and protesters - often clad in black with hiking sticks and yellow hard hats - engage in tense standoffs as the sky darkens. The stakes were raised when protesters first descended on Hong Kong's lone airport a week ago, threatening the city's reputation as a global transport and business hub. On Monday and Tuesday, hundreds of flights were cancelled as demonstrators blocked tourists' access to the departure lounge. Where they could go Anger at police brutality has risen and demonstrators are increasingly frustrated that city leaders have ignored their demands. Ms Lam has given few public remarks since the unrest began. Protesters are becoming increasingly unruly, hurling insults at the police and preparing defences – erecting barriers and gathering items, from bricks to street signs – to throw at the charging officers. Rallies are planned through the end of August, and people say they will take to the streets until demands are met – even though police have begun rejecting applications to hold marches. Police are also preparing to escalate their response. Riot police fire tear gas to disperse protesters taking part in a rally on 28 July Credit: Rex Three anti-riot vehicles armed with water cannons are on stand-by. Authorities are reportedly mulling plans to use the armoured trucks to shoot water mixed with tear agents or liquid dye to disperse crowds - and make it easier to identify suspects. For now, the unrest has galvanised more supporters rather than split public opinion. People are offering free rides and shelter to protesters running away from tear gas. Trained medics are also volunteering their time, making the rounds during mass demonstrations to treat injuries. But how long city residents will put up with such disturbances remains to be seen as the protests take an increasing toll on daily life. Police now conduct random bag and ID checks in subway stations, trains have been delayed as workers go on strike, tear gas fogs up streets even hours after the rallies have been disbanded. China's options Beijing at first appeared to ignore the protests, later giving brief comments that stated support for Ms Lam and the Hong Kong police to handle the situation. The government also issued stern warnings to Western nations, including the US and UK, to keep out of Chinese domestic affairs, decrying foreign interference as the reason for unrest. Foreign ministry officials condemned protesters for engaging in violent acts without addressing the issue of police brutality. Carrie Lam has rarely spoken in public since the unrest began Credit: Bloomberg Lately, however, the rhetoric has ramped up, with China's top diplomat in Hong Kong speaking publicly for the first time since the territory's handover in 1997 and calling the protests akin to 'terrorism'. Hong Kong protests: riot police baton charge and fire tear gas to clear demonstrations at parliament, in pictures Chinese state media videos of military and police engaging in aggressive anti-riot drills serve as a warning that reinforcements for the Hong Kong authorities are ready to deploy at a moment's notice. For now, city officials and the leading authority - the Chinese Communist Party - have refrained from unleashing extreme measures, such as shooting live rounds and sending in the military. That "would be a major threshold for Beijing to cross," says Steve Tsang, director of the University of London's SOAS China Institute. Yet experts say there's no telling what the government might do next, especially as Beijing officials accuse protesters of fomenting a "colour revolution" with help from foreign forces - an anti-Communist uprising that would be its worst nightmare. The fear, for many, is a crackdown with a bitter end. Many of those out on the streets now are too young to remember the military tanks rolling into Tiananmen Square in 1989. But Beijing's memory is long.
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| ‘Absolute Amateur Hour’: Team Trump Mangles Messages to Iran Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:46 AM PDT  Photo Illustration by Lyne Lucien/The Daily Beast/GettyThe Trump administration keeps sending conflicting and contradictory messages to Iran about its terms for new negotiations, multiple U.S and European officials tell The Daily Beast. And the ensuing chaos has vexed the president, complicated diplomatic efforts for American allies abroad, and utterly baffled policymakers at home. "Absolute amateur hour," said one former senior administration official, who was involved with the internal squabbles.For several months, the United States has been actively attempting to pass messages, via allies, to the Iranians in an effort to move closer to beginning formal diplomatic talks with Tehran. However, diverging opinions within the Trump administration are foiling the nascent diplomatic process, according to two current U.S. officials and another source with direct knowledge of the matter. The dissent is straining foreign intermediaries who are working as go-betweens between Washington and Tehran. They say they are fed up with receiving mixed messages from Donald Trump's team.The State Department did not respond to a request for comment for this story. But a senior administration official told The Daily Beast, "The Administration is completely aligned in this approach. The President has been clear, he is open to meeting with Iran's leadership to work out an agreement and give Iran the future it deserves." There have been long-standing reports on internal tensions between the president and some of his senior officials, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, on how hawkishly to approach the Iranian regime. In June, as The Daily Beast reported at the time, Trump had privately urged his cabinet members and top aides to cool it with their tough talk on possible war with Iran, despite the attacks on tanker ships in the Gulf of Oman that the administration had pinned on Tehran.The latest mixed messages and instructions have included at times wildly differing details on preconditions the U.S. would demand for official sit-downs between the two countries, and varying proposals for the length of time for which the Americans would consider suspending economic sanctions on Iranians, these sources said. U.S. officials, European officials, and individuals involved in the disparate talks between the U.S. and Iran told The Daily Beast that top Trump administration national security officials are divided about what to put on the table when it comes to negotiating with Tehran, including whether to ease a select set of sanctions, keep them in place, or suspend them altogether. The tensions stem, in part, from President Trump's desire to consider a new deal while some of his advisers are more reluctant to do so, according to two European officials and three individuals associated with brokering talks between Washington and Tehran. Generally, Trump has been more amenable to suspending sanctions for a greater amount of time as talks progress. However, national security and State Department officials have repeatedly advised the president, as well as representatives of allied countries, to demand stricter timelines for possible sanctions relief.The U.S. has for more than a year conducted talks with the Iranians, leaning on mediators such as Oman, Switzerland, Japan, Iraq and France, according to two individuals involved in the behind-closed-door conversations. But the conflicting messages have been particularly bothersome to one go-between in particular—France. Trump has expressed different views to the French, compared to those offered by his National Security Council and the State Department, on how to handle overtures to Tehran. In the meantime, the French have been caught in the middle.Why Would Iran Start a Tanker War?"The French are justifiably anxious about whether they are getting clear and authoritative directives from the U.S," said one former senior State Department official. "There is no policy process for Iran. So of course the French are getting mixed messages. It's not surprising that the administration says 'Macron please do this' and then to disavow that same instruction."The clashing messages are also causing headaches inside the upper echelons of the Trump administration. They've annoyed the president on multiple occasions in recent months, according to a source who's been in the room when those tensions have been discussed at the White House. One source noted that the president had instructed subordinates several weeks ago to clear up the confusion and knock it off with the diplomatic discord.In a public culmination of his frustrations, the president tweeted last week that the French should not try to speak for the U.S. in conversations it conducts with Iran."Iran is in serious financial trouble. They want desperately to talk to the U.S., but are given mixed signals from all of those purporting to represent us, including President Macron of France," the president posted to Twitter on August 8. "I know Emmanuel means well, as do all others, but nobody speaks for the United States but the United States itself. No one is authorized in any way, shape, or form, to represent us!"The tweet confused not only French officials, but American officials, as well, who said they now fear the U.S. has ostracized a strategic partner it was actively trying to win over when it came to Iran.Of course, the president's mercurial approach has complicated Iran policy before. In June, Trump approved (then abruptly called off) military strikes on the Islamic republic that could have killed upwards of 100 people. The back and forth comes as the Trump administration has also sought outside counsel on what a new Iran deal could potentially look like. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), nowadays a top Trump confidant and ally on Capitol Hill, has been working closely with administration officials who focus on Middle East policy to determine possible alternatives to President Barack Obama's Iran nuke deal. Part of this effort includes the Republican senator fielding ideas from foreign officials and others.Why Trump Wants the Ayatollah's CashGraham is doing this with Trump's full knowledge, and the senator told The Daily Beast that the president was receptive to the push. But even this effort is in part defined by the cognitive dissonance driving Trump's thinking on Iran.Graham's involvement comes at a time when Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, another Republican who regularly advises Trump, is working behind the scenes, with the president's blessing, as an informal diplomatic emissary to Iran. And the two men are unlikely to get on the same page on Iran. According to those who've spoken to Trump about each GOP lawmaker, the president has repeatedly joked about all the foreign nations Graham wants the U.S. military to invade, and conversely has lauded Paul as a peacenik who "won't let [us]" start "World War III."It is unclear if Trump will even try to get the two to work in tandem on Iran policy. When asked this month if he was coordinating with Paul, Graham chuckled and simply replied, "No," adding, "I'm not sure what he's doing."Read more at The Daily Beast.Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast hereGet our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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| Deploying new U.S. missiles would be 'reckless act' -North Korean media Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:41 AM PDT ![Deploying new U.S. missiles would be 'reckless act' -North Korean media]( "Deploying new U.S. missiles would be 'reckless act' -North Korean media") Any move by the United States to place new ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles in South Korea could spark a "new Cold War" and an escalating arms race in the region, North Korean state media said on Wednesday. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month said he was in favour of placing ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles in Asia, a day after the United States withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia. "The U.S. pointed out that it is now examining a plan for deploying ground-to-ground medium-range missiles in the Asian region and South Korea has been singled out as a place for the deployment," North Korea's state news agency KCNA said.
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| Why have protests hit Hong Kong and where will they end? Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:40 AM PDT Hong Kong has this summer faced the worst political turmoil since its handover to China in 1997. Residents first poured onto the streets to protest an extradition proposal that would send suspects to face trial in China, where the Communist Party controls the courts. When city leaders failed to defuse tensions, police sought to curtail the largely peaceful rallies by shooting tear gas, rubber bullets and foam rounds – a serious escalation in a city long known for being one of the safest places in the world. Protesters believe that because the extradition proposal has only been suspended, and not formally withdrawn, lawmakers could still quickly table and pass the legislation. Their demands have since grown to include the resignation of Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam, an independent commission to investigate police brutality, and wider political reforms to allow for residents to directly elect its leader. Britain's response During the leadership race, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt called on Beijing to uphold the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which guaranteed freedoms for at least 50 years in the territory after its handover. But many residents say liberties have sharply eroded, especially since Xi Jinping took power as the head of the Communist Party in 2012. The agreement is a legally binding treaty registered at the United Nations, and places responsibility on both signatories to ensure rights in Hong Kong, which means the UK could raise the issue at the UN. Hong Kong protests However, Britain's willingness to take on China as the Brexit process calls for new trade links outside the EU could be limited. Lord Chris Patten, the last colonial governor, has called on the British government to do more to support the protesters, saying "We shouldn't forget there is such a thing as honour, and we're honour-bound to stand up for freedom in Hong Kong, the freedoms we promised people for years." In late June, the UK halted further export licenses for crowd control equipment indefinitely until human rights concerns were "thoroughly addressed," said then-Foreign Secretary Mr Hunt. Some of the tear gas canisters fired appeared to have been made by British defence contractor PW Defence, according to Amnesty International, a human rights group. In an interview with a Chinese language broadcaster in July, Mr Johnson said his government would be "very pro-China." Where the protests stand Hong Kong is now in its third month of mass demonstrations. The leaderless movement has used social media and mass Airdrops to spread the word, with many groups organising rallies in several neighbourhoods. Despite lacking a figurehead, the protesters show no sign of splintering and appear to only have become more determined. Chants of "Reclaim Hong Kong, it's time for revolution!" have overtaken the slogans that defined the early days of the movement, when people were shouting, "No extradition to China!" It's a shift that reflects how upset Hong Kongers have become with Beijing's creeping influence in the region, and could prompt a greater crackdown by the government. While the rallies begin peacefully during the day, they now end in pandemonium as police and protesters - often clad in black with hiking sticks and yellow hard hats - engage in tense standoffs as the sky darkens. The stakes were raised when protesters first descended on Hong Kong's lone airport a week ago, threatening the city's reputation as a global transport and business hub. On Monday and Tuesday, hundreds of flights were cancelled as demonstrators blocked tourists' access to the departure lounge. Where they could go Anger at police brutality has risen and demonstrators are increasingly frustrated that city leaders have ignored their demands. Ms Lam has given few public remarks since the unrest began. Protesters are becoming increasingly unruly, hurling insults at the police and preparing defences – erecting barriers and gathering items, from bricks to street signs – to throw at the charging officers. Rallies are planned through the end of August, and people say they will take to the streets until demands are met – even though police have begun rejecting applications to hold marches. Police are also preparing to escalate their response. Riot police fire tear gas to disperse protesters taking part in a rally on 28 July Credit: Rex Three anti-riot vehicles armed with water cannons are on stand-by. Authorities are reportedly mulling plans to use the armoured trucks to shoot water mixed with tear agents or liquid dye to disperse crowds - and make it easier to identify suspects. For now, the unrest has galvanised more supporters rather than split public opinion. People are offering free rides and shelter to protesters running away from tear gas. Trained medics are also volunteering their time, making the rounds during mass demonstrations to treat injuries. But how long city residents will put up with such disturbances remains to be seen as the protests take an increasing toll on daily life. Police now conduct random bag and ID checks in subway stations, trains have been delayed as workers go on strike, tear gas fogs up streets even hours after the rallies have been disbanded. China's options Beijing at first appeared to ignore the protests, later giving brief comments that stated support for Ms Lam and the Hong Kong police to handle the situation. The government also issued stern warnings to Western nations, including the US and UK, to keep out of Chinese domestic affairs, decrying foreign interference as the reason for unrest. Foreign ministry officials condemned protesters for engaging in violent acts without addressing the issue of police brutality. Carrie Lam has rarely spoken in public since the unrest began Credit: Bloomberg Lately, however, the rhetoric has ramped up, with China's top diplomat in Hong Kong speaking publicly for the first time since the territory's handover in 1997 and calling the protests akin to 'terrorism'. Hong Kong protests: riot police baton charge and fire tear gas to clear demonstrations at parliament, in pictures Chinese state media videos of military and police engaging in aggressive anti-riot drills serve as a warning that reinforcements for the Hong Kong authorities are ready to deploy at a moment's notice. For now, city officials and the leading authority - the Chinese Communist Party - have refrained from unleashing extreme measures, such as shooting live rounds and sending in the military. That "would be a major threshold for Beijing to cross," says Steve Tsang, director of the University of London's SOAS China Institute. Yet experts say there's no telling what the government might do next, especially as Beijing officials accuse protesters of fomenting a "colour revolution" with help from foreign forces - an anti-Communist uprising that would be its worst nightmare. The fear, for many, is a crackdown with a bitter end. Many of those out on the streets now are too young to remember the military tanks rolling into Tiananmen Square in 1989. But Beijing's memory is long.
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| Italy's Bond Market Grows Worried Over Salvini's Leadership Bid Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:37 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- The bond market used to like the idea of Matteo Salvini as Italy's leader. Now it's becoming worried.As League party leader Salvini attempts to force fresh elections, investors fear victory would embolden a new government to ramp up spending and clash with the European Union again over budget deficit limits. With the nation's bonds having seen the biggest one-week selloff since the current coalition was formed in May last year, more turmoil is expected and could lead its borrowing costs to return to levels that could rattle global markets.With the League topping opinion polls, Salvini has pledged that a government led by him would cut income tax for most Italians, start a large program of public works, and stop the introduction of an automatic VAT increase in 2020. The political risk comes at a time when the economy has almost ground to a halt, suggesting that Italy's debt burden will continue to rise."It's going to be a hot Italian summer for bond markets," said Andrea Iannelli, a London-based investment director at Fidelity International, which has an underweight position in Italian bonds. "The plan that the League has is not strictly conservative from a fiscal point of view."Italian lawmakers have summoned Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to appear before the senate on Aug. 20, from which Salvini is pushing for a quick confidence vote that would lead to a snap ballot. The way forward will ultimately be decided by President Sergio Mattarella, who can seek to form an alternate ruling coalition in parliament, or call a general election.Italian 10-year yields jumped 26 basis points last week to touch 1.83%, the highest level in over a month. The premium investors need to pay over those on their German peers, a key gauge of risk sentiment in the country, hit a six-week high of 238 basis points. The flushing out of long positions may widen it further in the short term to 250 basis points, according to ING Groep NV.Levels in "lo spread" above 300 made the front pages in Italy last year, and that is probably the "pain threshold" now, according to Fidelity's Iannelli. The spread could climb to between 275 basis points and 300 basis points if Salvini seeks to form a government with other parties on the right such as the Brothers of Italy, according to AllianceBernstein."The most likely outcome is a coalition with center-right, but the probability of an outright League win or a coalition with the harder-right has definitely increased in recent weeks," said John Taylor, a money manager at AllianceBernstein. "We're in for a period of more volatility."Budget BusterThe League would get about 38% of the vote if elections were held now, according to pollster Noto Sondaggi. Salvini proposes simplifying income tax by lowering the rate to 15%, while stopping the VAT increase would cost the Treasury around 23 billion euros ($25.7 billion) or 1.3% of GDP. The nation is already the euro-area's second-most indebted, after Greece, and Brussels threatened sanctions against Rome last year for a wider budget deficit.The debt risk in the bloc's third-biggest economy is weighing on the euro and helping boost demand for havens such as the Swiss franc and German bonds. Italy's benchmark stock index has slid to hit a two-month low this week, while the cost of insuring the nation against default has surged to the highest this year.QE HelpOne boon for Italian bondholders though is the prospect of a fresh program of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank -- potentially starting in September. While the ECB is up against limits in countries such as Germany, it still has room to buy debt from Italy.For Danske Bank AS, Italy also retains the appeal of being one of the few nations in the euro area that doesn't have most of its debt market offering negative returns. For Axa Investment Managers, low summer volumes mean it's too early to see which direction the market will go."Now is probably not the right time to make decisions," said Alessandro Tentori, chief investment officer at Axa Investment Managers, adding he wasn't sure if Salvini's reform agenda would be better or worse for markets than the existing government's plans.The prospect of the League governing without its current coalition partner, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, had previously been seen as positive for the nation's financial markets given their constant sparring and conflicting priorities over tax cuts. But over the last few months, Salvini has sounded the most forceful over ramping up spending on infrastructure.Italy won't be able to contain the budget deficit below 2% -- seen as a potential line in the sand for the European Commission in the last dispute -- if it's going to deliver promised investments and tax cuts, Salvini has said. To avoid disciplinary action by the Commission, Rome agreed to keep this year's shortfall at 2.04%, with talks about the 2020 budget due to start next month."The prospect of a more assertive, and more powerful, Salvini raises the prospect of protracted tensions with the EU," said ING strategists including Antoine Bouvet. "The build-up to the Italian election would coincide with the build-up to Brexit. If we get that, we see the 10-year Italy-Germany spread testing 300 basis points."(Updates with ECB buying in 11th paragraph, Axa in 12th.)To contact the reporter on this story: John Ainger in London at jainger@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net, Neil Chatterjee, Alessandro SpecialeFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| British-Iranian academic arrested by Tehran amid rising tensions Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:36 AM PDT  Iran has arrested a dual British-Iranian national, threatening to further sour relations between the two countries just as they appeared to be making headway over the fate of a seized Iranian tanker. Kameel Ahmady, a renowned anthropologist, was arrested by police on Sunday on unspecified allegations. Mr Ahmady, an Iranian Kurd who was born in the western city of Mahabad, was granted British citizenship in 1994 but had been living in Iran for the last 14 years. His wife, Shafagh Rahmani, said on Tuesday night he had not been officially charged, but prosecutors at Evin prison said that he faces a series of charges related to "his activities". "At this moment I only ask [the judiciary officials] to allow me to meet my husband and talk to him on the phone," she told Iranwire website. "His activities have been transparent and open. The results of his work has been published in books and these books were published with the permission of the Ministry of Culture. I really have no idea why he has been arrested." Wife Shafagh Rahmani said on Tuesday night he had not been officially charged, but prosecutors at Evin prison said that he faces a series of charges related to "his activities" Credit: Family According to his Linkedin profile, Mr Ahmady, who had studied at the London School of Economics, is "a scholar working in the field of social anthropology conducting research on topics related to local cultures, women and children, and the rights of minorities in the Middle East, with some work experience in Africa and the Far East." In 2015, he released a study suggesting tens of thousands of Iranian women have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM). Before Mr Ahmady's disclosure, Iran was not recognised as a country affected by the controversial practice. "I returned to Iran in 2005 to study FGM in my home country and instantly I was shocked to discover that it even happened to the closest members of my own family and relatives," he told the Guardian at the time. Iran has pursued a campaign of detaining Iranian and dual nationals academics in recent years, the latest of which was in July when French-Iranian scholar Fariba Adelkhah was detained on unspecified charges. Iran has since 2016 been holding another British-Iranian national, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, on charges of espionage. The 40-year-old charity worker's husband, Richard Ratcliffe, has suggested she may be being used as leverage. The Telegraph also revealed earlier this month that Iranian-Finnish King's College London student Ana-Diamond, 24, was held in Evin prison for eight months that same year on charges of spying for the British government. As tensions with Tehran escalate, the Islamic Republic is accused of using dual nationals as pawns in its standoff with the West. Richard Ratcliffe, the husband of imprisoned Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, protesting outside the Iranian Embassy in London Credit: Rex Iran and the UK have been locked in a diplomatic row over the fate of two tankers. Gibraltar seized the Grace 1 supertanker on July 4 with the help of British Royal Marines on suspicion it was shipping oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions. Tehran retaliated two weeks later by impounding British-flagged tanker Stena Impero while it was travelling through the Persian Gulf. A court in Gibraltar is to decide the fate of the Grace 1 on Thursday, when an order for its detention lapses. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Tehran has lifted several stumbling blocks by reflagging the vessel and setting a new destination after Gibraltar sought assurance that the ship would not sail to Syria. Iran has however tried to deny the oil carried by the supertanker was Iranian, declaring it as Iraqi, which is a common Iranian practice to evade sanctions. It is not clear what the Gibraltar authorities will decide, but Iran seemed confident on Tuesday that the vessel would be released. Talks between Iranian officials and the Foreign Office conducted in London last month failed to resolve the crisis. Formally, the FCO is trying to separate the issues of the tanker from the broader tensions with Iran over the nuclear deal. Since the US pulled out of the 2015 accord last year, the UK and has been struggling to keep it alive while at the same time coming under pressure from Washington to take a harder line. A spokesperson for the FCO told the Telegraph it was aware of reports of Mr Ahmady's arrest.
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| Germany flies into ‘perfect storm’ as economy heads towards recession — live updates Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:32 AM PDT  German economy shrank 0.1pc in the first quarter as trade fears weighed on exports Angela Merkel says Europe's largest economy is entering "difficult phase" Eurozone stocks open down on recession worries Analysis: The four reasons Germany is plunging towards recession Germany's economy is halfway to recession, after shrinking in the three months to June as global tensions put pressure on its export-driven manufacturing sector. Europe's largest economy contracted by 0.1pc in the second quarter, following what state statistical office Destatis called "a slight decline in economic performance". Over the past year, Germany's economy grew by just 0.4pc, its worst performance in years. A closely-watched survey of investors yesterday found German economic sentiment had plummeted to its lowest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2011. Speaking before the widely-anticipated fall was published, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany's economy was entering a "difficult phase," adding: "We will react depending on the situation." If the German economy declines again between July and September — the third quarter — it will be seen as having entered a technical recession, which it narrowly avoided last year. European stock markets opened in the red this morning, with Germany's DAX down around 0.4pc. The continent's top indices had rallied yesterday after the US announced it would delay tariffs on around $150bn of Chinese exports, easing fears of an impending trade war. 9:30AM Breaking: UK inflation figures released CPI year-on-year: 2.1pc (prior 2.0pc, est: 1.9pc) CPI core year-on-year: 1.8pc (prior: 1.8pc, est: 1.8pc) July CPI: –0.1pc (June: 0pc, est: –0.1pc) RPI year-on-year: 2.8pc (prior: 2.9pc, est: 2.8pc) July RPI: 0pc (June: 0.1pc, est: 0pc) 9:20AM Coming up: Rail passengers prepare for 'annual kick in the teeth' A Southern Rail train Credit: Paul Grover for the Telegraph In about 10 minutes, we'll get the UK's latest inflation figures, which comes in two broad flavours: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI). A lower-than-expected figure for CPI is likely to have an impact on the pound (currently having a flat day). CMC Markets' Michael Hewson explains: In June the headline CPI came in on the Bank of England's target rate of 2pc, and could well slip back to 1.9pc, which would mean that real wages are rising at 2pc per annum, though with RPI at 2.9pc it sounds better than it is. Core prices are also set to slide as well, down to 1.8pc. Given all the doom and gloom surrounding Brexit, and concerns about job losses, this is welcome news, though how long it will last remains to be seen. For many people, however, RPI is the figures to watch. That's because it is the number used to calculate how much rail fairs rise by. My colleague Oliver Gill writes this morning: Consumer groups will be up in arms. Unions will once again hold this up as a banner of how private capital fails. There'll be a steady stream of figureheads demanding change and saying enough is enough. In one sense, it's absolutely bonkers that train price increases are linked to the retail price index (RPI). This higher rate hasn't been this country's official measure for more than eight years. Not for the first time, the railways are open to criticism of being gravely behind the times. Linking fares to the consumer price index (CPI) instead would give passengers some reprieve. Roughly speaking, using it would save a tenner on the price of a £1,000 season ticket. The problem is, such a change upsets a delicate financial equilibrium. You can read his full explanation of the figures — and why they cause so much trouble — here: Ministers must admit to the real reason why train tickets are going up Average fares have risen nearly three times faster than wages 9:07AM 'Perfect time' for Germany to ramp up investment The German government is facing increased calls to ramp up spending to stimulate economic growth following this morning's GDP figures. Matthias Weber, an economist at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, says: While the industrial sector is already in recession, the service sector is currently still doing fine but will likely follow soon. Given the current economic situation at the beginning of a recession, now would be the perfect time for Germany to support the economy by investing in its future. Public investments in railways, roads, bridges, childcare centers, public schools, and renewable energy are much needed. Such investments could currently be made at an extremely low (even negative) interest rate and they would boost the slowing aggregate demand. The second-quarter contraction put further pressure on German bond yields as investors continue to move towards safe-haven assets. New deal = new record-low German bond yield. Now at -0.62%! pic.twitter.com/nR5esO1VM9— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) August 14, 2019 Here's our read on what's going on in the world's increasingly haywire bond market: Slide in bond yields deepens fears of worldwide recession 8:58AM National Grid boss: Government must probe why railways and hospitals lost power during blackouts People wait outside King's Cross during last Friday's blackout Credit: Lewis Pennock/PA National Grid boss John Pettigrew has said the government must look into why power was cut to critical bits of infrastructure including hospitals and railways during the blackout last week. Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr Pettigrew said National Grid had restored power quickly, and said problems had been caused a a local network level. He told the paper: The network was back and in normal operation within seven minutes but the disruption was massive, so it's absolutely critical we look at the prioritisation of demand. You can read the FT's full interview with Mr Pettigrew here: National Grid chief questions hospital power cuts (£) 8:45AM Round-up: Government urges no-deal preparation, FirstGroup wins West Coast and HS2 franchises Michael Gove is in charge of preparations for a no-deal Brexit Credit: Heathcliff O'Malley Two big stories from this morning: Government urges industry groups to prepare businesses for no-deal Brexit: The Government has asked industry groups to come up with "creative and practical" ways to help businesses prepare for a no-deal Brexit. FirstGroup wins lucrative West Coast rail and HS2 franchises: Firstgroup and Trenitalia have won the contract to run the West Coast rail franchise and the HS2 high speed railway, when it is built, in a deal that will see the Government share economic risk with the private operators. 8:25AM Merkel: 'We're heading into a difficult phase' — re-cap Angela Merkel (right) with defence minister and heir apparent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Credit: Markus Schreiber/ AP It was Angela Merkel's first day back from her summer holidays on Monday, and the German Chancellor must have known she was returning to bad news. Today's figures showed an expected 0.1pc second-quarter GDP contraction in Europe's largest economy, as the export-heavy nation struggles with global disruption. Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2019 down 0.1% on the previous quarter. https://t.co/fsQPJMuMGiGDPpic.twitter.com/H1RSx7EDYf— Destatis news (@destatis_news) August 14, 2019 At a town hall yesterday, Ms Merkel was pushed on the state of Germany's economy. "It's true, we're heading into a difficult phase," she said, adding of today's figures: "We will react depending on the situation." "Domestic demand is still somewhat propping up the economy," the outgoing Chancellor added. Germany published its draft budget yesterday, which maintained a policy of not increasing net debt: suggesting the plan isn't to spend its way to growth. If the German economy is on its way to a recession, that will be confirmed in November. Sorting out the country's economic issues, however, may ultimately fall to Ms Merkel's successor. The Chancellor reiterated yesterday that she will not seek public office again after she steps down in 2021. 8:11AM ING: 'The end of a golden decade for Germany' Is it time for a shake-up in German industry? Credit: Ralph Orlowski/REUTERS ING economist Carsten Brzeski has assessed this morning's GDP figures, and what kind of action they may prompt from Germany's government and the European Central Bank, which last month hinted that it was preparing a package of measures to help stimulate the economy. He writes: Today's GDP report definitely marks the end of a golden decade for the German economy. Since the end of the 2008/09 recession, the economy has grown by an average of 0.5pc [quarter on quarter]every quarter. In fact, the economy grew in 35 out of the last 40 quarters. However, under the surface of these impressive headline numbers, a worrisome trend has emerged. Since 3Q 2018, the economy has been in a de facto stagnation, with quarterly GDP growth at an average of zero percent... ...There is no need to panic, but instead to act. Looking ahead, the future path of the German economy highly depends on external events and government action. Obviously, any relief in the ongoing trade conflicts would benefit the German economy. Companies could still use extremely favourable financing conditions and invest. However, the principle of hope is not enough. The pressure on the German government to act will increase. Mr Brzeski said Europe's largest economy now needs a stimulus package aimed at "digitisation, climate protection, energy transition, infrastructure and education". Markets.com's Neil Wilson added: The export heavy economy is suffering as global trade contracts. Unless maybe Merkel and co can shake off their dogma — it's only been a hundred years since hyperinflation. ���� No upside surprise in Germany. Real GDP fell by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2, decelerating from a 0.4% rise in Q1. We don't have numerical details but destatis mentioned that domestic demand contributed positively to growth, while foreign trade was a drag (1/n) pic.twitter.com/sZoh7KKUyM— Nadia Gharbi (@nghrbi) August 14, 2019 7:56AM Final details on second quarter will reveal reasons underpinning contraction Claus Vistesen, from Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the data is "Not pretty, but slightly better than we had feared based on the monthly data." He adds: This information is of very little use, though, until we see the final breakdown between investment and inventories. Looking ahead, early Q3 sentiment data suggest that the economy remains weak. The risk of a recession is now elevated, but indicators for domestic private demand remain relatively resilient, especially in the services sector and with respect to consumers' spending. By contrast, leading indicators for manufacturing and construction suggest that investment is slowing, and today's data suggest that the final Q2 details will confirm this. It's worth remembering that today's data follows a mega slump in German investor confidence, as revealed yesterday by research group ZEW. Here's our full report on that data: Shock slump in German confidence adds to recession fears 7:33AM 'Door is wide open to a German recession' The mood in Germany is not great. Here's what Klaus Borger, an economist at public investment bank KfW, has said about the GDP figures: With the escalating trade conflicts of the USA, the ever more probable chaos (of) Brexit and the weaker world economy, the perfect storm has been brewing since the summer of last year. The door at least to a technical recession... is wide open. Germany's most important export, cars, have driven the decline in its ailing manufacturing sector, but it's not the only issue facing the country. My colleague Tom Rees had examined the four key problems facing the stumbling German economy: Is Germany sinking towards recession after another contraction? 7:16AM German contraction, train ticket hike and trade wars A Volkswagen factory worker Credit: FILIP SINGER/ EPA Good morning. The big news out this morning is that fears have increased that Germany is heading for a recession after suffering a 0.1pc contraction in its economy in the second quarter of the year. The shrinkage means Germany is now lagging the other largest economies in the eurozone, after the second quarter saw Italy flatline and France grow 0.2 percent. As hard data and soft indicators such as surveys of business, investor and consumer sentiment have eroded in recent weeks and months, economists have warned Europe's powerhouse could suffer falling output and even a technical recession — two successive quarters of negative growth. Federal statistics authority Destatis said higher spending by private households and the state as well as increased investments helped support the economy at home. But "foreign trade developments braked economic growth, since exports fell back more sharply than imports compared with the previous quarter," the statisticians added. Elsewhere, markets may be pushed higher today after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on some Chinese goods, including laptops and mobile phones, until December 15. The reprieve came after a call between US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese vice-premier Liu He ahead of tariffs that would have hit $300bn (£249bn) of imports from China on September 1. The two sides plan more talks in the next two weeks, according to Chinese state-run media. 5 things to start your day 1) Confidence in the German economy has crashed to its lowest level since the depths of the eurozone debt crisis, fuelling fears of a recession. 2) Fears are growing that the jobs miracle could be close to its end as unemployment edged up in June, the number of vacancies slid and productivity took its biggest plunge since 2013 Wages and unemployment 3) Today we'll find out how much more a train ticket will cost next year. Inflation figures released later will be used by the rail industry to calculate January's rises. Increases in annual season ticket prices 4) Hong Kong protests heated up for a second day yesterdayand will be in focus again today as one of Asia's key transport hub remains closed. US senator Ben Cardin warned late last night that Hong Kong could lose the special trade status it has enjoyed under US law if Beijing intervenes directly. 5) Marshall Motors chief executive Daksh Gupta has said that buying a car would not only become more expensive in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but motorists could have a smaller range of vehicles to choose from. "If we don't get a deal and sterling falls then Britain will become a much less attractive market and less profitable market for manufacturers," he said. "We'll probably see fewer cars coming into the UK." What happened overnight Asian equities rallied on Wednesday as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief at news the US had delayed tariffs on a swathe of Chinese goods, easing tensions in the countries' bitter trade war. The news provided some much-needed respite for investors, who have come under intense pressure from a range of issues including concerns about the global economy, Hong Kong's protests, the trade war and Brexit. Wall Street's three main indexes surged on the announcement with the tech-rich Nasdaq up 2pc, and the Dow and S&P; 500 more than 1pc higher. The US gains filtered through to Asia where Hong Kong climbed 0.5 percent. Elsewhere the surge in US stocks lifted MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan by 0.9pc. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.6pc while South Korea's KOSPI advanced 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.6pc. High-yielding, riskier currencies also enjoyed some gains with the Mexican peso and South African rand more than one percent higher, South Korea's won gaining 0.8 percent and the Indonesian rupiah 0.6 percent up. China's yuan, which has plunged in the past two weeks on worries about the trade stand-off — sparking accusations Beijing is a currency manipulator — also bounced. Coming up today Analysts are expecting low-single-digit growth in Prudential's results for the first half of the year. That's not the main event — front and centre on Wednesday will be extra details on its plans to demerge its asset management operation (M&G; Prudential) and its plans for Brexit. Also reporting is builder Balfour Beatty, which has undergone a major restructuring in the wake of outsourcing giant Carillion's sudden collapse. In March, the company announced it has increased profit despite a fall in revenue, and has said that it is aiming at "higher quality" work. Its shares have been feeling the pressure however. Interim results: Admiral, Apax Global Alpha, Avast, Awilco Drilling, Balfour Beatty, CLS Holdings, Hochschild Mining, Lookers, Prudential, Riverstone Energy, Zeal Network Economics: Inflation figures (UK), Sentiment, industrial production, employment and GDP (all Eurozone)
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| German growth outlook remains subdued due to trade conflicts, Brexit - ministry Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:00 AM PDT ![German growth outlook remains subdued due to trade conflicts, Brexit - ministry]( "German growth outlook remains subdued due to trade conflicts, Brexit - ministry") Germany's growth outlook remains clouded as manufacturers are hit by escalating trade conflicts, Brexit uncertainty and other geopolitical crises, the economy ministry said on Wednesday. Trade conflicts have recently worsened and the prospects for an orderly Brexit have not improved," the economy ministry said in its monthly report.
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| Brazil-Argentina Ties Sour as Bolsonaro Fumes Over Primary Vote Posted: 14 Aug 2019 01:00 AM PDT  (Bloomberg) -- A sudden chill threatens the warm relationship between the two largest economies in South America, as Brazil's far-right president warned of dire consequences in the event of a leftwing populist victory in Argentina's elections.Sunday's surprise primary result in Argentina means that President Mauricio Macri is on course to lose October's vote to Alberto Fernandez, the leftwinger running on a ticket with former president Cristina Kirchner. Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro has made no secret of his desire to see Macri remain in office, while Fernandez has publicly welcomed criticism from a man he described as "racist, violent and misogynistic".With the election of Bolsonaro last year, the historically protectionist economies of Brazil and Argentina both have ideologically aligned presidents in office simultaneously. While Macri's suave, businesslike persona may have clashed stylistically with Bolsonaro's abrasive ex-army rhetoric, the two men shared similar economic goals, as demonstrated by the recent trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur, the South American customs union. Deteriorating relations between the two most powerful economies in the bloc risks undermining that agreement's ratification, as well as billions of dollars in bilateral trade.To read more: Macri's Shock Setback in Argentina Deals Blow to Re-Election BidBrazil and Argentina make up almost two thirds of the $4 trillion of economic output in South America. Argentina is Brazil's biggest trade partner in the region, accounting for nearly $30 billion in commerce each year. Brazil is Argentina's biggest export buyer globally, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.'Brothers Fleeing'In his first comments after the vote, Bolsonaro claimed that the return of "lefties" to power in Argentina could spark a wave of migration to Brazil, mirroring the situation in northern parts of the country where tens of thousands of Venezuelans have flooded in as their economy implodes."We don't want our Argentine brothers fleeing to Brazil," Bolsonaro said in Rio Grande do Sul state, which borders Argentina.At present this seems improbable. Around 4 million Venezuelans have fled the country over the past few years and around 90 percent those remaining live in poverty, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. By comparison, 27 percent of Argentinians live in poverty, according to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.In June, Bolsonaro had enthusiastically backed Macri during a visit to Buenos Aires. In the wake of that trip, Fernandez headed to Brazil to meet former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in his jail cell in the southern city of Curitiba where he is imprisoned on corruption charges. On Monday night he described the ex-president as a "political prisoner". Lula and Kirchner are longstanding allies.Bolsonaro's comments "show that people are worried about what they remember from when Cristina was president," said Earl Anthony Wayne, a former U.S. ambassador to Argentina under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. "Right now there's a lot of concern."During her time in office, Kirchner nationalized pension funds, imposed currency controls and tampered with economic statistics. Meanwhile, Fernandez has stoked investor fears by pledging to change the terms of a $56 billion dollar agreement between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund.Fernandez has also criticized the free-trade deal signed in June between the Mercosur trading bloc and the EU. He said it offered "nothing to celebrate, but rather a lot of reasons to worry."Damage ControlWith so much trade potentially in the crosshairs, Brazil's Economy Minister Paulo Guedes will likely step in to temper Bolsonaro's harsh words, according to Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas. A champion of free markets, Guedes is the president's top economic adviser and one of the most influential cabinet members."Guedes keeps his eyes on what really matters to him, and this will matter," Stuenkel said. "Guedes will try to save things in the next couple of weeks, saying 'we'll have good relationship with whomever gets elected, we're not worried.' Then it's anybody's guess whether they will succeed in stopping Bolsonaro from saying things."'Blown Up'In a Monday meeting at Brazil's economy ministry, there was concern over Bolsonaro's remarks on Argentina. Undersecretaries urged Guedes to speak with Bolsonaro and ask him to distance himself from Macri, according to a person present at the gathering who requested anonymity because it was private.To date, Fernandez has made little attempt to either allay investor concerns or downplay his disagreements with Bolsonaro.However, some market analysts believe that he would be more pragmatic in power. Tony Volpon, a former Brazil central bank director who's now chief economist at UBS Brasil, said that despite current financial market fears, Fernandez will likely follow the precedent of leftist Latin American leaders including Lula and follow an orthodox policy set upon taking power. That means Argentina and Brazil could still do business, he said.With Argentina mired in recession, it is more dependent than usual on ties with Brazil to ensure trade and foreign investment, according to Mauricio Santoro, an international relations professor at Rio de Janeiro's state university."It's strategic, so they will put some effort into building this relationship. But, as our friends in Argentina know, it takes two to tango," Santoro said.\--With assistance from Murilo Fagundes and Rachel Gamarski.To contact the reporters on this story: David Biller in Rio de Janeiro at dbiller1@bloomberg.net;Eric Martin in Mexico City at emartin21@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net, ;Walter Brandimarte at wbrandimarte@bloomberg.net, Matthew Malinowski, Bruce DouglasFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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| UPDATE 4-'Collaborators' are undermining Britain's Brexit bet, PM says Posted: 14 Aug 2019 12:29 AM PDT ![UPDATE 4-'Collaborators' are undermining Britain's Brexit bet, PM says]( "UPDATE 4-'Collaborators' are undermining Britain's Brexit bet, PM says") Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday some British lawmakers hoping to block Brexit were engaged in "terrible" collaboration with the European Union by undermining London's negotiating hand and so making no deal more likely. Hours after senior lawmakers said they would seek to prevent any attempt to ignore parliament over Brexit, Johnson used a question-and-answer session on Facebook to attack them. "There is a terrible kind of collaboration as it were going on between those who think they can block Brexit in parliament and our European friends," Johnson, who has been hailed by the U.S. president as "Britain's Trump", said on Facebook.
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